The CPG Guys: Fixing Paid Social for Retailer Sales with Ampd's Joshua Gebhardt & Brandon Nutter

Episode Date: February 18, 2026
Guests: Joshua Gebhardt (CEO & Co-founder, Ampd), Brandon Nutter (CTO & Co-founder, Ampd)
Hosts: Peter V.S. Bond & Sri Rajagopalan

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the transformation of paid social media's impact on retailer sales, with a focus on how Ampd leverages agentic AI and shoppable media to dissolve the gap between platforms like Meta/TikTok and physical/online retail. Joshua Gebhardt and Brandon Nutter share their journey of building Ampd and discuss the future of commerce, media measurement, and the critical elimination of friction in the shopper journey to unlock true conversion and market share growth for CPG brands.

Key Discussion Points

1. Ampd’s Mission & Origin Story

[05:30]

• Ampd was formed to solve the disconnect between national brand media spend (across Meta, TikTok, Google, YouTube, etc.) and actual retail sales results, especially in CPG.
• Joshua and Brandon discovered the industry’s core issues while working with Fortune 100 brands—overly complex, outdated adtech; poor customer experience; massive funnel drop-off; and lack of reliable measurement.
• Their vision: Turn billions of national media impressions into real, measurable retail sales at Amazon, Walmart, Target, and beyond by connecting walled gardens in real-time.
• “Growing at the speed of culture…especially in the days of AI, you need to scale advertising that’s resonating today, not three months from now when the trends pass.” – Joshua Gebhardt [07:30]

2. Scope of Retail Media & Beyond

[08:39]

• The $80 billion spent on retail media is vast, but Ampd addresses the even larger universe of off-platform, national media ($100B+), expanding brand reach beyond RMNs.
• Real opportunity is bridging global-scale media to where consumers actually buy (Amazon, Target, Walmart, etc.).
• “We’re actually the other side of that [retail media universe].” – Joshua Gebhardt [09:47]

3. Industry Disruption & The Need for Agentic AI

[10:38]

• The CPG industry is “ripe for disruption”—teams are stuck with clunky tech causing friction for marketers and shoppers.
• Next-gen disruption requires true agentic AI that acts on behalf of marketers and shoppers, automating and optimizing the journey and media spend.

Agentic AI Defined [12:44]

• Brandon explains agentic AI as “AI agents doing something on the marketer’s or shopper’s behalf…to find the best retailers for consumers, knowing where shoppers prefer to shop.”
• A new era: AI not just processing data, but dynamically shopping, routing, and optimizing in real time.
• “This is really what we’re looking to discover and build: the agentic shoppable media platform that on your shopper’s behalf can bring them to the places where they’re most likely to purchase.” – Brandon Nutter [13:45]

4. Eliminating Friction in the Shopper Journey

[15:28]

• Adding interstitial landing pages or multiple clicks creates drop-off and decision fatigue; the attention window in social is only seconds.
• “If they’re clicking more than once…you’re making it harder for them to actually purchase.” – Brandon Nutter [15:38]
• Best practice: send shoppers straight to their preferred/best retailer to buy with a one-click journey.

5. The Disconnect: Discovery vs. Commerce

[16:43], [16:58]

• Social platforms drive discovery, retailers drive commerce—different companies, purposes, and data walled gardens.
• Measuring cross-platform effectiveness remains a challenge. “Commerce data is so vital for that entire funnel.” – Joshua Gebhardt [27:29]
• Amazon’s Attribution API is a standout tool; most other retailers’ data is still locked or expensive to access.

6. The Realist’s Take on Agentic Commerce Adoption

[18:05]

• Only a small share (~2%) of commerce may be agentic-driven by 2030, but the technology is on an exponential growth curve, and adoption may accelerate.
• Retailers may be hesitant, but consumers will increasingly value intelligent shopping agents.

7. Rethinking “Where to Buy” in a Social-First World

[21:28]

• Classic ‘where to buy’ solutions (multiple choices, landing pages) are outdated—shoppers want instant, direct handoff.
• Multi-retailer ads are emerging (Meta, TikTok) to natively route clicks to retailers, shortening the path to purchase.
• “We see anywhere between a 50 to 70% drop off when you add another step in the funnel.” – Brandon Nutter [22:27]

8. Real-Time Optimization — “Moving at the Speed of Culture”

[25:01], [25:13]

• Paid social effectiveness is lost without in-flight optimization; classic MMM (Marketing Mix Modeling) is too slow.
• Collecting commerce and awareness data side-by-side is crucial to optimize and double-down quickly.

“Even if you get the perfect data, it's weeks, it's months later, it doesn't matter. The moment is gone, your audience is gone.”
— Joshua Gebhardt [28:15]

9. Single-Click Journeys & Conversion Impact

[29:09]

• Analogous to a store associate taking a shopper directly to the right aisle—digital should be no different.
• Every added step decreases conversion; direct, agentic routing is the new standard.

10. Measurement & Attribution: Next-Gen MMM

[34:01], [34:26]

• Ampd’s open-source MMM enables near real-time (days, not months) attribution of offsite traffic’s impact on Amazon sales and others.
• “MMM is table stakes now… if you’re not able to understand the impact of incremental sales to retailers, especially with off-platform traffic, you’re missing one of the biggest pieces.” – Brandon Nutter [36:20]

11. Fair and Equitable Retailer Partnerships

[38:16], [38:26]

• CPGs balance sending traffic to retailers by GMV percentage, ensuring equitable growth without favoring a single partner, all while maximizing shopper satisfaction through agentic routing.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Friction:
  “Friction kills conversion.” – Brandon Nutter [44:20], highlighted as the episode’s key takeaway by host Peter.

• On Real-Time Data & Action:
  “To move at the speed of culture, you have to get commerce data side-by-side and optimize in real time.” – Joshua Gebhardt [27:29]

• On MMM Evolution:
  “MMM is table stakes now… don’t wait three months, this should be days.” – Brandon Nutter [36:20]

• On Scale Outside Retail Media:
  “The world [outside RMNs]… might even be approaching hundreds of billions, maybe even a trillion. That’s the place we play.” – Joshua Gebhardt [09:07]

• On AI Shopping Adoption:
  “I think people have to be pretty convinced that the AI is making a good decision for them…there’s a fundamental human dynamic; people still want autonomy.” – Joshua Gebhardt [18:37]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Ampd’s origin and purpose – [05:30]
• Scope of retail media vs. social/brand media universe – [08:39]
• Defining agentic AI and its real application – [12:44]
• Friction in shopper journeys, and the impact on conversion – [15:28], [29:09]
• Why discovery and commerce are disconnected – [16:43], [16:58]
• Realistic projections for AI-powered shopping – [18:05]
• Why ‘where to buy’ solutions are outdated – [21:28]
• Single-click journey’s power for conversion – [29:09]
• Next-gen MMM for true retail attribution – [34:26]
• Fair & equitable retailer partnership strategies – [38:26]
• Actionable advice for CPG leaders – how to start – [41:28]

Actionable Takeaways for Brands

• Start by fixing the shopper path to purchase: Eliminate extra clicks and friction, direct shoppers immediately to their preferred retailer’s app/site ([41:28]).
• Implement agentic AI to route and optimize traffic: Unlock data-driven, real-time action using true AI/shoppable agents.
• Demand and use cross-platform measurement tools: Use solutions like Amazon Attribution API to answer which creatives and audiences are actually converting ([42:33]).
• Balance GMV across retailer partners for fair/equitable growth: Use technology to proactively partition traffic.

The Hosts' Big Takeaways

“Friction kills conversion. Anytime you add interstitial, the drop off is substantial. You want to get that consumer to the right experience… the faster you do it, the higher the conversion.” – Peter V.S. Bond [44:20]

“Given where we are with technology, the anchor of agentic AI is equally important. You don’t want to get left behind.” – Sri Rajagopalan [45:26]

For More

Find the guests’ LinkedIn and company links in the show notes. To hear the full conversation and review previous episodes, visit cpgguys.com.

Summary by Podcast Summarizer, capturing key industry insights, lively dialogue, and actionable strategies for CPG brands aiming to win with paid social and retail media.