The CPG Guys: FMI Midwinter Recap with Parag Shah

Date: January 28, 2026
Hosts: Peter V.S. Bond & Sri Rajagopalan
Guest: Parag Shah, Think Blue Consulting

Overview

In this in-depth episode, Peter, Sri, and guest Parag Shah deliver a detailed recap of the 2026 FMI Midwinter Conference in San Diego. Rather than focusing on flashy announcements or disruptive innovation, the hosts highlight a shift in industry sentiment: from a mindset of hope or panic, to one of realism, acceptance, and recalibrated focus on execution and fundamentals.

They dissect the challenges currently facing the CPG and retail ecosystem—including volume stagnation, the rise of private brands, omnichannel transformation, retail media measurement, and the evolving relationship between brands and retailers—and discuss how the industry is moving from expansion to disciplined execution, all in service of the ultimate “MVP”: the shopper.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Industry Mood & Acceptance of Challenges

Timestamps: 02:06 – 11:16

• Sentiment Shift: The conference was marked by introspection rather than exuberance. Acceptance has replaced hopeful waiting about volume bouncing back; there’s a sober focus on operational reality rather than wishful thinking about “normal” returning.

  • “This midwinter wasn’t about a bunch of headlines and announcement. It was about a lot of subtext." ([02:19], Sri)
  • “The industry has stopped waiting for change... People are realizing this environment is durable and let's focus on what today is rather than waiting for what tomorrow could bring.” ([08:07], Parag)

• Comparison to Previous Years: Past years were about panic and hope; now, there’s widespread recognition that volume growth won’t return easily, and the industry must adapt for sustainable, albeit slower, growth paths.

  • “The industry has stopped hoping for those volume gains to come roaring back and they're starting to cope with the reality, hopefully in a healthy way...” ([03:03], Peter)

2. From Innovation to Subtraction & Focus

Timestamps: 10:01 – 13:21

• New Perspective: There's a move from relentless addition (more promotions, more SKUs) toward rationalization and focus—"subtraction as the new innovation."

  • “Strategically, it's so important right now that you got to apply your investment dollars ... less is more.” ([11:12], Parag)

• Innovation Woes: Most "innovation" is really incremental line extension; over 80% of these fail within 2 years ([12:38], Parag referencing a Costa report).

3. Growth Opportunities: Channels & Consumer Focus

Timestamps: 14:07 – 22:40

• Omnichannel is Key: E-commerce and omnichannel, especially convenience and digital activation, are where growth lies—brick & mortar is mature and private brands are gaining share.

  • “If I'm looking at the grocery channel, it's clearly going to be online. E-commerce is where there's an enormous amount of growth potential.” ([14:24], Peter)
  • “Omnichannel has become the name of the game... If you are not embracing it, you're going to have a real hard time finding long term sustainable growth.” ([16:10], Parag)

• Private Brands Rising: Private label (now termed private brands) have lost their stigma and gained consumer trust; they're a core competitive factor.

  • “Private label has crossed a credibility threshold. Consumers don't see it as a compromise anymore.” ([27:06], Sri)
  • “Once quality has been overcome, the price component takes in. National brands, if you don't create products that are better than private label, the digital age is going to show that out and you are going to get replaced.” ([29:44], Peter)

4. The Complexity Challenge: Cognitive Load & Personalization

Timestamps: 23:15 – 26:02

• Cognitive Load: Overabundance of choice and “personalization” via SKU expansion have bred consumer confusion, not value.

  • “Consumers are overwhelmed right now. It's not only about price sensitivity. There are too many choices, too many promotions, too many decisions... We cannot confuse complexity with value.” ([23:25], Parag)
  • “The industry kept adding more and more and more SKUs and called it personalization. That just created more complexity, confused us value.” ([24:51], Sri)

• Traffic and Loyalty: Store traffic and loyalty are earned each visit, not an entitlement.

  • “Traffic and transactions, they are never given. They are always earned. Always earned. Every trip, every transaction, you have to earn it.” ([26:02], Parag)

5. Retail Media: Measurement & Incrementality

Timestamps: 32:38 – 41:36

• Retail Media Networks (RMN) Maturation: Still growing, but now facing pressures for accountability, clear incrementality, and cross-team collaboration.

  • “Retail media has not been here forever... Projected to be 100 billion in a couple of years. That's a lot of money in a $1.4 trillion industry.” ([33:29], Parag)
  • “The great reckoning of retail media today is value ROI... The most important thing right now is incrementality.” ([35:09], Sri)

• Transparency Required: Brands demand measurement and incrementality—"no more easy dollars".

  • “I don't think they're going to get the dollars from the brands anymore unless they give them the transparency and the incrementality is measured according to their needs.” ([36:24], Peter)
  • “At some point of time the cost to serve the retail media ads will be so expensive that brands will pull back unless they see through incrementality.” ([38:01], Parag)

• Role in Omnichannel: Retail media (especially in-store) is essential as traditional mass-reach channels decline.

  • “Retail media, particularly in store retail media, is going to be a critical driver for physical store growth.” ([39:38], Peter)

6. Technology, AI, and Operating Model Strain

Timestamps: 41:40 – 48:05

• AI Impact: Industry is past the hype—focus is now on concrete use-cases, productivity, and foundational data readiness (e.g. data clean rooms).

  • “If you don't have data, what good is your AI?” ([43:00], Peter)
  • “Technology is here to stay, and it's going to transform us in meaningful ways like we have not seen before.” ([45:56], Parag)

• Grocery Lab Launch: FMI's new Grocery Lab is designed to accelerate shopper-centric, tech-enabled change.

  • “The ethos and the mission of Grocery Lab is designed to remove friction for the shopper at the speed of technology.” ([47:21], Parag)

7. The New Brand–Retailer Relationship

Timestamps: 49:04 – 52:05

• Reset in Dynamics: Joint business planning (JBP) is evolving to joint value creation (JVC), centered on the shopper and shared outcomes, not just trade terms.
  • “The framework that we put forward at FMI Midwinter this year about evolution from JVP to JVC—joint value creation—brings trading partners together... transparent dialogue... in the service of the shopper.” ([49:04], Parag)
  • “For a long, long time the retailer basically dictated how the trade funds were used. Now they have control over the checkbook and they have control over their marketplace, fundamentally changing the equation...” ([50:28], Peter)

8. Synthesis & Action Steps

Timestamps: 52:05 – 53:32

• Industry’s Evolution: The focus is now on discipline, execution, and fundamentals. Growth is hard and must be earned together, with the consumer as the North Star.

  • “It was about the discipline... learning that growth is harder to come by, costs are higher, loyalty's become much more harder to gain, and complexity is getting more expensive. So the industry is shifting from expansion to execution, from ambition to focus, and from storytelling to actual proof of ROI.” ([52:05], Sri)

• Final Advice:

  • “Simplify your operating model, skill initiatives that have low ROI. Invest in relationships. Execute, execute, execute in service of MVP: a shopper.” ([53:03], Parag)
  • “Focus on doing it right every single time. Stay on target, get the job done.” ([53:22], Peter)
  • “Less flash, more fundamentals, more focus on growing together.” ([53:32], Sri)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Shift From Hope to Realism:

  • “I'd say that this was one of those conferences where what wasn't said mattered more than actually what was on the stage.” ([02:29], Peter)
  • “No cavalry. Indeed.” ([09:29], Sri)

• On Private Label/Private Brands:

  • “Private brand is something that the retailer owns ... activates the whole full funnel in order to deliver the shopper needs. There's a huge shift that's happened in the industry over the last 10 years...” ([27:23], Parag)
  • “Private label has crossed a credibility threshold. Consumers don't see it as a compromise anymore.” ([27:06], Sri)

• On Retail Media:

  • “Retail media is just one piece of the bucket... It's going to be hard to justify. So I've always believed when it is a fragment, a small fraction of your total business, it gets away with it. But when it becomes large... a lot of eyeballs will be on it. CFOs and CEOs will start demanding performance and ROIs.” ([38:01], Parag)

• On Brand–Retailer Partnership:

  • “The focus will be on activities performing in the service of the shopper, not only talking about trade rates, market share and lagging indicators.” ([49:04], Parag)
  • “For a long, long time the retailer basically dictated how the trade funds were used. And brands just had to accept... Now they have control over the checkbook and they have control over their marketplace, fundamentally changing the equation...” ([50:28], Peter)

Timeline of Key Segments

| Time | Segment / Topic | |--------|-------------------------------------------| | 02:06 | Overall Industry Sentiment at FMI | | 08:07 | Reflecting on Cycles & Acceptance | | 10:01 | Shift: Subtraction & Strategic Focus | | 14:07 | Where is Growth? Channels & Omnichannel | | 16:10 | Rise of Private Brand | | 23:15 | Complexity, Personalization & Cognitive Load | | 32:38 | Retail Media: Growth & Accountability | | 41:40 | Technology, AI, Data Readiness | | 45:56 | Launch of Grocery Lab | | 49:04 | The Quiet Reset: Brand–Retailer JVC | | 52:05 | Episode Synthesis & Next Actions |

Final Takeaways

• Realism, not optimism or panic, defines the industry's current mindset.
• Brands and retailers must focus on execution, delivering value, and simplifying complexity.
• Omnichannel, private brands, and retail media are key battlegrounds—but all must serve the shopper above all else.
• Retailer-brand dynamics are evolving: True partnership and joint value creation (JVC) are rising in importance, powered by collaborative technology and aligned incentives.
• Leaders are advised to cut low-ROI initiatives, invest in relationships, and execute fundamentals relentlessly.

For listeners and industry stakeholders, this episode provides a clear-eyed look at where the grocery and CPG world stands in early 2026—and a roadmap for action anchored on consumer relevance, operational discipline, and collaborative innovation.