The CPG Guys Podcast: "Small Business-Retailer Partnerships with GlobalData Retail's Neil Saunders"

Release Date: December 27, 2025
Host: Sri Rajagopalan
Guest: Neil Saunders (Managing Director, GlobalData Retail)

Episode Overview

This episode, recorded live at Amazon Accelerate 2025, features Sri Rajagopalan in conversation with retail analyst Neil Saunders. Together, they explore evolving trends in consumer behavior, the challenges facing CPG brands and retailers, and how analytics, retail media, and partnerships are redefining success in retail—especially for small businesses. Saunders shares data-backed insights on volume compression, the myth of digital-only Gen Z shopping, the proliferation and value of retail media, and the growing importance of speed, innovation, and personalization in the CPG and retail space.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Challenges and Surprises in Consumer Retail Data (03:10)

• Contradictory Narratives: Contrary to popular belief, Gen Z highly values in-person shopping, despite being seen as digital natives.
  • Quote:

    "There's always this popular narrative that Gen Z is very digital... but when you dive into the data you see a lot of nuance and you see how much they place value on physical shopping..."
    — Neil Saunders [03:10]

• Accelerated Change: The pace of change in consumer preferences is faster than ever—what's a temporary trend vs. a lasting shift is harder to discern.

  • "The whole time it takes to go through very big changes is compressing."
    — Neil Saunders [03:10]

2. Retail & CPG Trends to Watch for 2025–2026 (05:12)

• Volume Compression: Retail sales growth is driven by value, not volume; units sold are flat or declining. This creates acute market share battles.
  • Quote:

    "It's value growth and the volumes that sit underneath that are a lot slimmer... a real battle for market share and share of wallet."
    — Neil Saunders [05:12]

• Brand Disloyalty: Consumers' loyalty is increasingly fluid, especially when value becomes the primary decision factor.

  • "Loyalty can be very temporary. What is right for me in this moment... may be very different from the very next day."
    — Neil Saunders [05:55]

• Innovation Imperative: True innovation (not just line extensions) and problem-solving for real consumer needs are essential for growth.

  • "You have to problem solve for the customer... not just another scent. It's those kind of things that we need to see a bit more of."
    — Neil Saunders [08:19]

3. The Retail Media Explosion: Friend or Foe? (08:57)

• Proliferation Issues: With over 175 retail media networks, brands must be strategic, focusing investment on the platforms with the greatest return.
  • Quote:

    "There are far too many retail media brands... Place your bets... The bigger players are going to win. Amazon, Walmart..."
    — Neil Saunders [09:20]

• Measurement Challenges: Incrementality and attribution remain weak points—brands struggle to accurately measure which investments are truly additive.

  • "It's very difficult to attribute genuine incrementality... That's why working with a few partners where you can really understand the metrics and the dynamics is important."
    — Neil Saunders [10:53]

• Back to Basics: Retail media shouldn't distract from core product quality and innovation.

  • "You've got to have the good product. If you don't have the great product and it's not the right price, you can put all the money in the world to advertising ...it won't move."
    — Neil Saunders [11:33]

4. Consumer Behavior: Post-Pandemic Caution & Value Focus (13:16)

• Cautious Consumers: Spending is reserved for needs and genuine wants; there’s ongoing trading down to private label and value formats.

  • "I think it's I'll buy it if I need it, but it's also I'll buy it if I really want it..."
    — Neil Saunders [13:58]

• Importance of Brand Desire: Retailers creating ‘want’ (not just ‘need’) see outperformance. Example: Dick’s Sporting Goods vs. Kohl’s.

  • "Some players are doing tremendously well because they're really aligned with what the customer wants, they create this real desire... others... just not doing so well."
    — Neil Saunders [13:53]

5. Channel Strategy: Shelf & Screen Integration (15:55)

• New Shopping Pathways: Even with most purchases still in store, digital touchpoints drive many decisions, creating a "shelf plus screen" imperative.

  • "You have to cater for shelf and screen. ...It's all about the purchase journey both online and in store."
    — Neil Saunders [15:55]

• Impacts on In-Store Displays: Center-store foot traffic is declining; display value is changing as shoppers increasingly click and collect or shop staples online.

  • "The foot traffic... over a 10 year period is much softer than at the perimeter of the store."
    — Neil Saunders [17:15]

6. The Total Value Equation and Integration of Retail Media (19:15)

• Brands Want Holistic ROI: Brands are pushing back against spending redundantly on endcaps, digital, and other points—seeking an integrated omnichannel value equation.
  • Quote:

    “The total value equation is the important thing... They see it as a holistic ecosystem.”
    — Neil Saunders [19:15]

7. Amazon & Small Business Partnerships (20:16)

• Fulfillment as Differentiator: Amazon’s logistics infrastructure removes barriers for small sellers—especially as customs and shipping complexity grow.

  • "Amazon is taking care of a lot of that, including things like international shipping. ...This frees up the sellers to spend time on things they're good at."
    — Neil Saunders [20:28]

• Regulatory Shifts: De minimis changes (customs thresholds) in the US currently favor platforms with integrated logistics like Amazon.

8. The AI & Analytics Revolution (22:05)

• Digital Twins: Already used at retailers like Lowe's, digital models help plan merchandising and assortment at scale.

  • "Digital twins is real today... what they're able to do gives them a start to say... How does it look in this store? What do we need to adapt?"
    — Neil Saunders [22:50]

• Generative & Predictive AI: Next-gen tools will allow predictive placement, real-time feedback, and rapid adaptation—though not yet mainstream.

  • “It’s allowing you to do prediction in real time. ...If you've got thousands of stores, it's a massive time saving.”
    — Neil Saunders [23:43]

• Proprietary AI for Data Security: GlobalData Retail uses its own closed AI system to protect proprietary data, enhancing client research while addressing data privacy.

  • “We’ve built a closed shop AI system... Clients can do generative questions... and it saves our clients time.”
    — Neil Saunders [24:34]

• Pitfalls of AI Content Creation: Over-reliance on AI-generated scripts can produce factual errors and miss the human touch.

  • “Someone did use AI to introduce me... and they introduced me saying that before my analyst career I used to be a professional footballer... It’s a total fiction."
    — Neil Saunders [25:49]

9. Brand-Retailer Partnership Dynamics (26:45)

• Data Sharing and Collaboration: The most successful partnerships rely on transparent data, mutual goals, and co-creation of value.

  • “A partnership... is really about justifying your share of shelf... a lot more data sharing, a lot more collaboration... retailer and brands working together.”
    — Neil Saunders [26:45]

10. Innovations on the Horizon (27:49)

• Micro-Personalization: AI-driven product customization is growing, with huge potential yet to be fully unlocked.

  • “Micro-personalization... being able to take a base product and personalize it with the help of AI is really interesting.”
    — Neil Saunders [27:49]

• Speed to Market: Brands and retailers must accelerate listening and reaction cycles—responding in real time to trends, especially those emerging on social platforms.

  • “You listen, you have to act... culture moves so quickly... That’s the different bit from 10 years ago.”
    — Neil Saunders [28:53]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• On the Gen Z myth:

  “You see how much they place value on physical shopping, how much value they place on in person experiences.” — Neil Saunders [03:10]

• On innovation vs. mere line extensions:

  “Another scent can be fine if it's really innovative... but if it's just another scent, it's not enough.” — Neil Saunders [08:29]

• On the proliferation of retail media:

  "There are far too many retail media brands... Place your bets.” — Neil Saunders [09:20]

• On why brands revolt:

  “Brands are going to revolt at some point.” — Sri Rajagopalan [18:58]

• On fulfillment as a competitive advantage:

  “Amazon is taking care of a lot of that, including things like international shipping.” — Neil Saunders [20:28]

• On AI-generated errors:

  "They introduced me saying that before my analyst career I used to be a professional footballer... total fiction." — Neil Saunders [25:49]

• On the single most important trend:

  “It's the customer. ...Trying to predict the customer and think, speeding up the listening.” — Neil Saunders [28:46]

Essential Segment Timestamps

• Biggest Surprises in Retail Data (Gen Z): [03:10–04:35]
• Key CPG & Retail Trends: [05:12–07:10]
• Retail Media Landscape: [08:57–11:53]
• Changing Consumer Behavior (Caution & Value): [13:16–15:13]
• Omni-channel Integration – Shelf & Screen: [15:55–19:15]
• Amazon’s Impact for Small Sellers: [20:16–22:03]
• AI/Analytics Revolution: [22:05–25:40]
• Data Sharing & Brand-Retailer Partnerships: [26:45–27:33]
• Most Important Trend (Customer-Centricity): [28:46–29:36]

Conclusion

This episode presents a vivid snapshot of retail’s current inflection point: brands and retailers are under pressure from both economic forces and new consumer behaviors, while technology—especially analytics and AI—is enabling new forms of value creation. The message is clear: success now depends on real innovation, rapid adaptation, partnership, and relentlessly keeping the (fast-changing) customer at the center.

Final Takeaway:

“It’s the customer... trying to predict the customer and think, speeding up the listening.”
— Neil Saunders [28:46]