The Creative Penn Podcast For Writers

Episode Title: 2026 Trends And Predictions For Indie Authors And The Book Publishing Industry
Host: Joanna Penn
Date: January 5, 2026
Episode Number: 844

Episode Overview

In this solo episode, Joanna Penn offers an in-depth, future-focused analysis of trends and predictions for indie authors and the book publishing industry in 2026. Drawing from her own insights and quoting various industry experts, Joanna breaks down key changes in book marketing, sales strategies, AI-powered tools, discoverability, translation, and the importance of authentic connection. The episode is carefully structured to provide actionable insights while reminding listeners to stay aligned with their own creative personalities and business goals.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Narrow Your Focus and Edit Your Author Business for 2026

Referenced: [00:01–10:00]

Becca Syme’s Advice: Joanna starts by sharing wisdom from Becca Syme, urging authors to focus on what truly works, stop spreading themselves too thin, and let go of tactics that aren’t providing results.
- Memorable Quote:
  
  “If you don't know if it's working, it's not working.” – Becca Syme, quoted by Joanna [00:03:00]
Quitting the right things is as important as adding new goals.
Align activities with personal strengths and preferences, not just what’s trending.
Joanna also links the book Quit by Annie Duke as a useful resource.
Take advantage of AI tools (like Claude) to help edit your business and prevent burnout from chasing every shiny object.

2. Substack: A Trendy Tool for Indie Authors?

Referenced: [00:10:00–18:00]

Substack is trendy, but Joanna cautions it’s best suited for thoughtful, long-form content and not as a simple email list or book update replacement.
Orna Ross’s Approach: Orna Ross’s essay on her Substack, discussing how it's a place for “thoughtful long form writing” and connecting with readers through process, not just announcements.
- Notable Quote (from Orna Ross):
  
  “If Substack helps us to write more honestly, more consistently, or to be more alive to our readers, then it's doing a powerful job regardless of the numbers.” [~00:15:00]
Backup your email subscriber lists regularly; platform trends shift quickly.

3. Trend #1: Direct Sales Will Accelerate

Referenced: [00:20:00–32:00]

More indie authors are selling direct via Shopify, Kickstarter, and in-person events; platforms like Bookvault offer beautiful print products.
- Written Word Media Survey: 30% of authors already sell direct; another 30% plan to start in 2026.
- Authors with large email lists (15,000+) command far higher direct sales.
Selling direct:
- Is more work and requires a business mindset: managing setup costs, taxes, bulk printing, ongoing marketing.
- Gives you customer data, faster payment, and more creative product options (e.g. sprayed edges, special editions).
- Notable Caution:
  
  "Selling direct is not a silver bullet. It is much harder work to sell direct than it is to just upload an ebook to Amazon.” – Joanna Penn [00:23:00]
Traditional publishers (HarperCollins) are joining in, with subscription boxes and TikTok Shop.

4. Trend #2: AI-Powered Search Is Revolutionizing Book Discoverability

Referenced: [00:32:00–41:00]

Generative Engine Optimization (“GEO”) will replace SEO for discoverability in AI chatbots and answer engines, not just Google.
Optimize book metadata and author content for nuanced, conversational queries—think beyond keywords.
AI tools are reading and indexing your content; you’ll need to test whether your books and presence show up in these new AI-driven results.
- Memorable Quote:
  
  “Consider the AIs as part of your audience because they are already reading your words and listening to your voice.” – Joanna Penn, paraphrasing Tyler Cowen [00:35:00]
Paid AI traffic (ads in ChatGPT etc.) is coming—be ready to test “ChatGPT ads” as soon as they're available.

5. Trend #3: Agentic Commerce & Amazon’s Potential OpenAI Partnership

Referenced: [00:41:00–52:00]

ChatGPT & Shopify are already piloting in-chat purchases in the US—AI shopping assistants will soon be able to research and buy books for readers.
Joanna predicts Amazon will partner with OpenAI before the end of 2026, enabling ChatGPT to surface Amazon links, recommendations, and potentially one-click purchases.
The line between discovery (browsing) and purchasing is disappearing.
- Quote:
  
  “The line between discovery, engagement and purchasing is collapsing because you could be... having a conversation about what to read next and then within conversation just click a purchase the book.” – Joanna Penn [00:49:00]
Authors will have to decide: invest ad dollars in ChatGPT traffic to their Shopify, or in Amazon ads? The ecosystem is fragmenting further.

6. Trend #4: AI-Assisted Audiobook Narration Becomes Mainstream

Referenced: [00:52:00–01:00:00]

AI narration tech is now good enough for fiction and non-fiction; greatly expands accessibility and reduces costs.
Human voice/audio will remain the high-standard “premium” for big launches, but AI narration will make audio as common as eBooks.
- Joanna mixes both: narrates some books herself, uses ElevenLabs AI for others.
- Transparent labelling of AI narration is ethically important but not universally required yet.
Platforms: Amazon’s Audible, Spotify, Kobo; traditional publishers like Macmillan and PRH are also adopting AI voice.
- Joanna’s Process Tip: Use AI to research best narration services, and read the fine print on audio rights.

7. Trend #5: AI-Assisted Translation Expands International Markets

Referenced: [01:00:00–01:07:00]

Kindle Translate now available in the US for English→Spanish and German→English, and expected to expand—making free, fast, and widespread translation possible.
The “AI translation gold rush” mirrors early Kindle days: few books in smaller markets means huge opportunity for genre fiction.
- Quote:
  
  “I was around in the Kindle Gold rush days of 2009-2012, and the AI translation energy right now feels like that.” – Joanna Penn [01:04:00]
Traditional and academic publishers (e.g., Harlequin France, Taylor & Francis) are also using AI translation combined with human editing.
Caveat: Poor-quality (AI slop) translations will sink fast due to reviews; quality is improving rapidly.

8. Trend #6: AI Video & Live Selling are the New Social Sales Tools

Referenced: [01:08:00–01:22:00]

AI-generated short-form video surpassed a quality threshold in 2025; tools like VO3, Runway, Sora 2, and YouTube Shorts make video creation accessible to all.
Live video selling is an emerging trend: authors using TikTok Live, Kim Kardashian’s Kimsmas example.
- Live events foster authenticity and urgency, standing out among AI-generated perfection.
Authenticity in the AI Age:
- Adam Mosseri (Instagram CEO) on “authenticity after abundance”:
  
  “The creators who succeed will be those who figure out how to maintain their authenticity, even when it can be simulated.” [01:17:00]
- Joanna adds real-world context: authenticity is complicated, especially for women due to online harassment.

9. Trend #7: AI-Created Ads Will Run With Minimal Human Input

Referenced: [01:22:00–01:26:00]

2026 will see AI-powered agents able to create, run, and optimize book ads for Amazon, Meta, Facebook, and Instagram.
- Joanna is already using Claude to analyze her Amazon Ad data.
- These agentic ad tools will open self-service ads to more authors, reducing the need for complex manual management or paying agencies.

10. Trend #8: A Thousand True Fans is More Vital Than Ever

Referenced: [01:26:00–01:34:00]

Given the “tsunami of excellent content” from both humans and AI, it’s harder to reach and hold reader attention.
Authors should move away from chasing algorithms, rapid release, and vanity metrics.
- Core principle:
  
  “If you have a thousand true fans, you can make a living if you are content to make a living but not a fortune.” – Kevin Kelly, as quoted by Joanna [01:29:00]
Core business strategy:
- Serving a niche of invested readers
- Focusing on higher-value products (special editions, courses, live events) instead of large volumes at low margins.
- “Know, like and trust”—building trust with readers more critical than ever.
Chris Brogan Interview Excerpt: (2017) [01:30:00–01:33:00]

“We have such an opportunity to voice our thoughts on something, to talk about the story that goes behind the product. We're all raised on overly produced material, but…we really want clarity, brevity, simplicity. We want the ability for what we feel is connection and then access.” – Chris Brogan

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Becca Syme’s Wisdom: “If you don't know if it's working, it's not working.” [00:03:00]
Orna Ross on Substack: “If Substack helps us to write more honestly… then it's doing a powerful job regardless of the numbers.” [~00:15:00]
Joanna Penn on Direct Sales: “Selling direct is not a silver bullet. It is much harder work… than just uploading an ebook to Amazon.” [00:23:00]
Tyler Cowen (via Joanna): “Consider the AIs as part of your audience because they are already reading your words and listening to your voice.” [00:35:00]
Adam Mosseri (Instagram, on authenticity): “The creators who succeed will be those who figure out how to maintain their authenticity, even when it can be simulated.” [01:17:00]
Kevin Kelly (A Thousand True Fans): “If you have a thousand true fans, you can make a living if you are content to make a living but not a fortune.” [01:29:00]
Chris Brogan (on trust): “We can see in much more dimensions who we're dealing with… we have such an opportunity to voice our thoughts… to talk about the story that goes behind the product… we really want clarity, brevity, simplicity…” [01:31:00]

Timeline of Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:01–10:00 | Setting the stage, Becca Syme on editing your author business, quitting unwinnable goals | | 10:00–18:00 | Substack for authors; Orna Ross’s use case and advice | | 20:00–32:00 | Selling direct: Shopify, Kickstarter, the new “advanced” indie business model | | 32:00–41:00 | AI-powered search & GEO; prepping for AI-generated search results | | 41:00–52:00 | Agentic commerce: ChatGPT shopping, Joanna’s Amazon/OpenAI prediction | | 52:00–1:00:00 | AI-assisted audiobook narration, cost and accessibility, human vs. AI voice balance | | 1:00:00–1:07:00 | AI translation; “Kindle Gold Rush” dynamics in new markets; traditional and indie experimentation | | 1:08:00–1:22:00 | AI video tools, live selling, and the future of “authenticity” in sales/marketing | | 1:22:00–1:26:00 | AI book marketing assistants and agentic, hands-off AI advertising for indie authors | | 1:26:00–1:34:00 | 1,000 true fans; business models focused on depth over width; Chris Brogan and Kevin Kelly insights on trust & connection |

Episode Takeaways

2026 will be a year of accelerated AI integration into every facet of the writing and publishing business: sales, discovery, marketing, and translation.
The strategies that matter most: building an intimate, trusting connection with readers; finding the right tools/channels that suit your creative goals; and understanding that human authenticity remains a core differentiator even as technology can mimic perfection.
Don’t just follow trends—consider what aligns with your unique gifts, audience, and lifestyle.

Resources & Further Listening

For extended show notes, links to everything mentioned, and Joanna’s deeper dives on AI and author business, visit thecreativepenn.com/podcast/844.

The Creative Penn Podcast For Writers

Episode Title: 2026 Trends And Predictions For Indie Authors And The Book Publishing Industry
Host: Joanna Penn
Date: January 5, 2026
Episode Number: 844

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Narrow Your Focus and Edit Your Author Business for 2026

Referenced: [00:01–10:00]

Becca Syme’s Advice: Joanna starts by sharing wisdom from Becca Syme, urging authors to focus on what truly works, stop spreading themselves too thin, and let go of tactics that aren’t providing results.
- Memorable Quote:
  
  “If you don't know if it's working, it's not working.” – Becca Syme, quoted by Joanna [00:03:00]
Quitting the right things is as important as adding new goals.
Align activities with personal strengths and preferences, not just what’s trending.
Joanna also links the book Quit by Annie Duke as a useful resource.
Take advantage of AI tools (like Claude) to help edit your business and prevent burnout from chasing every shiny object.

2. Substack: A Trendy Tool for Indie Authors?

Referenced: [00:10:00–18:00]

Substack is trendy, but Joanna cautions it’s best suited for thoughtful, long-form content and not as a simple email list or book update replacement.
Orna Ross’s Approach: Orna Ross’s essay on her Substack, discussing how it's a place for “thoughtful long form writing” and connecting with readers through process, not just announcements.
- Notable Quote (from Orna Ross):
  
  “If Substack helps us to write more honestly, more consistently, or to be more alive to our readers, then it's doing a powerful job regardless of the numbers.” [~00:15:00]
Backup your email subscriber lists regularly; platform trends shift quickly.

3. Trend #1: Direct Sales Will Accelerate

Referenced: [00:20:00–32:00]

More indie authors are selling direct via Shopify, Kickstarter, and in-person events; platforms like Bookvault offer beautiful print products.
- Written Word Media Survey: 30% of authors already sell direct; another 30% plan to start in 2026.
- Authors with large email lists (15,000+) command far higher direct sales.
Selling direct:
- Is more work and requires a business mindset: managing setup costs, taxes, bulk printing, ongoing marketing.
- Gives you customer data, faster payment, and more creative product options (e.g. sprayed edges, special editions).
- Notable Caution:
  
  "Selling direct is not a silver bullet. It is much harder work to sell direct than it is to just upload an ebook to Amazon.” – Joanna Penn [00:23:00]
Traditional publishers (HarperCollins) are joining in, with subscription boxes and TikTok Shop.

4. Trend #2: AI-Powered Search Is Revolutionizing Book Discoverability

Referenced: [00:32:00–41:00]

Generative Engine Optimization (“GEO”) will replace SEO for discoverability in AI chatbots and answer engines, not just Google.
Optimize book metadata and author content for nuanced, conversational queries—think beyond keywords.
AI tools are reading and indexing your content; you’ll need to test whether your books and presence show up in these new AI-driven results.
- Memorable Quote:
  
  “Consider the AIs as part of your audience because they are already reading your words and listening to your voice.” – Joanna Penn, paraphrasing Tyler Cowen [00:35:00]
Paid AI traffic (ads in ChatGPT etc.) is coming—be ready to test “ChatGPT ads” as soon as they're available.

5. Trend #3: Agentic Commerce & Amazon’s Potential OpenAI Partnership

Referenced: [00:41:00–52:00]

ChatGPT & Shopify are already piloting in-chat purchases in the US—AI shopping assistants will soon be able to research and buy books for readers.
Joanna predicts Amazon will partner with OpenAI before the end of 2026, enabling ChatGPT to surface Amazon links, recommendations, and potentially one-click purchases.
The line between discovery (browsing) and purchasing is disappearing.
- Quote:
  
  “The line between discovery, engagement and purchasing is collapsing because you could be... having a conversation about what to read next and then within conversation just click a purchase the book.” – Joanna Penn [00:49:00]
Authors will have to decide: invest ad dollars in ChatGPT traffic to their Shopify, or in Amazon ads? The ecosystem is fragmenting further.

6. Trend #4: AI-Assisted Audiobook Narration Becomes Mainstream

Referenced: [00:52:00–01:00:00]

AI narration tech is now good enough for fiction and non-fiction; greatly expands accessibility and reduces costs.
Human voice/audio will remain the high-standard “premium” for big launches, but AI narration will make audio as common as eBooks.
- Joanna mixes both: narrates some books herself, uses ElevenLabs AI for others.
- Transparent labelling of AI narration is ethically important but not universally required yet.
Platforms: Amazon’s Audible, Spotify, Kobo; traditional publishers like Macmillan and PRH are also adopting AI voice.
- Joanna’s Process Tip: Use AI to research best narration services, and read the fine print on audio rights.

7. Trend #5: AI-Assisted Translation Expands International Markets

Referenced: [01:00:00–01:07:00]

Kindle Translate now available in the US for English→Spanish and German→English, and expected to expand—making free, fast, and widespread translation possible.
The “AI translation gold rush” mirrors early Kindle days: few books in smaller markets means huge opportunity for genre fiction.
- Quote:
  
  “I was around in the Kindle Gold rush days of 2009-2012, and the AI translation energy right now feels like that.” – Joanna Penn [01:04:00]
Traditional and academic publishers (e.g., Harlequin France, Taylor & Francis) are also using AI translation combined with human editing.
Caveat: Poor-quality (AI slop) translations will sink fast due to reviews; quality is improving rapidly.

8. Trend #6: AI Video & Live Selling are the New Social Sales Tools

Referenced: [01:08:00–01:22:00]

AI-generated short-form video surpassed a quality threshold in 2025; tools like VO3, Runway, Sora 2, and YouTube Shorts make video creation accessible to all.
Live video selling is an emerging trend: authors using TikTok Live, Kim Kardashian’s Kimsmas example.
- Live events foster authenticity and urgency, standing out among AI-generated perfection.
Authenticity in the AI Age:
- Adam Mosseri (Instagram CEO) on “authenticity after abundance”:
  
  “The creators who succeed will be those who figure out how to maintain their authenticity, even when it can be simulated.” [01:17:00]
- Joanna adds real-world context: authenticity is complicated, especially for women due to online harassment.

9. Trend #7: AI-Created Ads Will Run With Minimal Human Input

Referenced: [01:22:00–01:26:00]

2026 will see AI-powered agents able to create, run, and optimize book ads for Amazon, Meta, Facebook, and Instagram.
- Joanna is already using Claude to analyze her Amazon Ad data.
- These agentic ad tools will open self-service ads to more authors, reducing the need for complex manual management or paying agencies.

10. Trend #8: A Thousand True Fans is More Vital Than Ever

Referenced: [01:26:00–01:34:00]

Given the “tsunami of excellent content” from both humans and AI, it’s harder to reach and hold reader attention.
Authors should move away from chasing algorithms, rapid release, and vanity metrics.
- Core principle:
  
  “If you have a thousand true fans, you can make a living if you are content to make a living but not a fortune.” – Kevin Kelly, as quoted by Joanna [01:29:00]
Core business strategy:
- Serving a niche of invested readers
- Focusing on higher-value products (special editions, courses, live events) instead of large volumes at low margins.
- “Know, like and trust”—building trust with readers more critical than ever.
Chris Brogan Interview Excerpt: (2017) [01:30:00–01:33:00]

“We have such an opportunity to voice our thoughts on something, to talk about the story that goes behind the product. We're all raised on overly produced material, but…we really want clarity, brevity, simplicity. We want the ability for what we feel is connection and then access.” – Chris Brogan

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Becca Syme’s Wisdom: “If you don't know if it's working, it's not working.” [00:03:00]
Orna Ross on Substack: “If Substack helps us to write more honestly… then it's doing a powerful job regardless of the numbers.” [~00:15:00]
Joanna Penn on Direct Sales: “Selling direct is not a silver bullet. It is much harder work… than just uploading an ebook to Amazon.” [00:23:00]
Tyler Cowen (via Joanna): “Consider the AIs as part of your audience because they are already reading your words and listening to your voice.” [00:35:00]
Adam Mosseri (Instagram, on authenticity): “The creators who succeed will be those who figure out how to maintain their authenticity, even when it can be simulated.” [01:17:00]
Kevin Kelly (A Thousand True Fans): “If you have a thousand true fans, you can make a living if you are content to make a living but not a fortune.” [01:29:00]
Chris Brogan (on trust): “We can see in much more dimensions who we're dealing with… we have such an opportunity to voice our thoughts… to talk about the story that goes behind the product… we really want clarity, brevity, simplicity…” [01:31:00]

Timeline of Important Segments

Episode Takeaways

2026 will be a year of accelerated AI integration into every facet of the writing and publishing business: sales, discovery, marketing, and translation.
The strategies that matter most: building an intimate, trusting connection with readers; finding the right tools/channels that suit your creative goals; and understanding that human authenticity remains a core differentiator even as technology can mimic perfection.
Don’t just follow trends—consider what aligns with your unique gifts, audience, and lifestyle.

Resources & Further Listening

For extended show notes, links to everything mentioned, and Joanna’s deeper dives on AI and author business, visit thecreativepenn.com/podcast/844.

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2026 Trends And Predictions For Indie Authors And The Book Publishing Industry with Joanna Penn

Powered by Wave AI

Summary

The Creative Penn Podcast For Writers

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Narrow Your Focus and Edit Your Author Business for 2026

2. Substack: A Trendy Tool for Indie Authors?

3. Trend #1: Direct Sales Will Accelerate

4. Trend #2: AI-Powered Search Is Revolutionizing Book Discoverability

5. Trend #3: Agentic Commerce & Amazon’s Potential OpenAI Partnership

6. Trend #4: AI-Assisted Audiobook Narration Becomes Mainstream

7. Trend #5: AI-Assisted Translation Expands International Markets

8. Trend #6: AI Video & Live Selling are the New Social Sales Tools

9. Trend #7: AI-Created Ads Will Run With Minimal Human Input

10. Trend #8: A Thousand True Fans is More Vital Than Ever

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timeline of Important Segments

Episode Takeaways

Resources & Further Listening

Summary

The Creative Penn Podcast For Writers

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Narrow Your Focus and Edit Your Author Business for 2026

2. Substack: A Trendy Tool for Indie Authors?

3. Trend #1: Direct Sales Will Accelerate

4. Trend #2: AI-Powered Search Is Revolutionizing Book Discoverability

5. Trend #3: Agentic Commerce & Amazon’s Potential OpenAI Partnership

6. Trend #4: AI-Assisted Audiobook Narration Becomes Mainstream

7. Trend #5: AI-Assisted Translation Expands International Markets

8. Trend #6: AI Video & Live Selling are the New Social Sales Tools

9. Trend #7: AI-Created Ads Will Run With Minimal Human Input

10. Trend #8: A Thousand True Fans is More Vital Than Ever

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timeline of Important Segments

Episode Takeaways

Resources & Further Listening