“AI is going to be transformational for the credit union industry.” – Steve Rick

Thank you for tuning in to The CUInsight Network, with your host, Robbie Young, Vice President of Strategic Growth at CUInsight. In The CUInsight Network, we take a deeper dive with the thought leaders who support the credit union community. We discuss issues and challenges facing credit unions and identify best practices to learn and grow together.

Today's episode is the second part of a very special four-part series brought to you by TruStage! My guest on today’s show is Steve Rick, Chief Economist at TruStage. Listen as he takes a good look at what 2026 may have in store for credit unions and the members they serve. We start with where inflation, GDP, and the labor market appear to be heading—as well as why tariffs and immigration policy are likely to show up in everyday prices sooner than expected. Steve explains why inflation could push past 3% in early 2026 and how that reality continues to shape the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to interest rates.

Steve gets into what many leaders are watching the most closely: rate cuts. He breaks down why the Fed is expected to gradually ease rates throughout 2026, how close we are to what economists consider a “neutral” rate, and why concerns about rising unemployment are guiding such decisions. From there, our conversation turns to credit unions, with Steve sharing his outlook for loan growth, deposits, and earnings, and we talk about consumer uncertainty, the impact of loans made during the ultra-low-rate years, and what all of this means for balance sheets this coming year.

As we wrap up the episode, Steve and I spend time talking about workforce trends and AI, where productivity gains are changing hiring patterns, reshaping call centers and lending teams, and even impacting recent college graduates trying to enter the job market. I hope that you enjoy my conversation with Steve Rick!

Find the full show notes on cuinsight.com.

Connect with Steve:
Steve Rick, Chief Economist of TruStage
trustage.com
Steve: LinkedIn
TruStage: LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | YouTube

In this episode:
[0:52] - Steve reveals how tariffs and tighter immigration push prices higher, potentially lifting inflation above 3% in early 2026.
[2:17] - Expect gradual Fed rate cuts toward a neutral 3% as officials guard against rising unemployment.
[4:05] - Steve explains how loan growth improves to about 5%, while deposits rise 6%.
[5:25] - Earnings improve as margins widen and costs stay in check, with AI playing an expanding role.
[6:48] - AI-driven efficiency slows hiring, cutting projected workforce growth to roughly 1% next year.
[7:59] - Steve further touches upon how recent graduates face tougher entry as unemployment nears 10%.