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- [00:01]
A
There's nothing like your first Mac. Here's what people online are sharing, rhain says. Everything is just so smooth and fast. I still can't get over it. Syncing stuff between my phone and this is just chef's kiss. Rincredible488 says Apple Silicon basically cures low battery trauma. That's how they felt with their first Mac. How will you Introducing the all new MacBook Neo, an amazing Mac at a surprising price. Find out more on apple.com Mac even
- [00:30]
B
Trump in his own primitive way knows the Republicans will get slaughtered in November. So he's trying to lay the groundwork to have something like this. Because what they do know what scares me is they can't have a free and fair election. That that is an utter disaster for them. It's a lot on every level. They know that they're going to do everything they can to stop it. It's just literally that's where we are. And expect the worst. Expect the worst.
- [01:04]
A
I'm Sarah Ewell Weiss with the Daily Beast podcast filling in for Joanna Coles. Today. Our guest is James Carville, the legendary political strategist and consultant. He is going to make some bold predictions about the midterms, dig into Trump's record low approval and and tell us who comes out on top as Americans see these never ending airport lines. But before we dig into the show, please take a moment to share this podcast with your friends. Invite them to subscribe to The Daily Beast YouTube channel. We've thankfully reached 500,000 followers and we're gunning for 1 million with your help. So here's our show with James Carville. So just going to jump right in here. I mean, Democrats this week flipped Trump's Mar? A Lago district by double digits. It was a state special election. But what does this say to you about where we're headed with the midterms?
- [02:06]
B
No, this is interesting. This has happened ever since Trump has been elected in November of 2024. It's consistent 12 to 14 point over performance and it's irrespective of geography. It doesn't matter if it's Florida, it doesn't matter if it's Pennsylvania, it doesn't matter if it's California, doesn't matter if it's Mississippi. The other thing is there was a state Senate seat that flipped, which is actually more important because the vacancy was when the governor picked the then state senator to be Lieutenant governor. Now you've been around politics long enough to know they're only going to pick somebody from A safe seat because they don't want to lose a seat in the state Senate. Well, they lost it. Which was a giant blow internally to Ron DeSantis. He's not going to be governor after this year anyway. So what we're seeing is double digit over performance everywhere. And Mar A Lago is no different than any other place. It just happened to be where they vote. But it's not. That's consistent with any other place.
- [03:08]
A
I mean, we're talking about usually saying a competitive race is a two to three point race. Are you expecting that places where there was a double digit win by a Republican in 2024, those are now considered competitive? Looking at November.
- [03:24]
B
Well, I think the best way to look at November is this. If you just take election returns and you take the polling and the aggregate. I mean, you know, everybody has their favorite poll aggregator, but they're also about to sing. The question is, is the over under for Democratic Senate seats? I think is 55. I really believe that if you took, if you're running 10, 11 points consistently ahead of 2024 performance, you're looking at a lot. I mean, once you start going north of 5, things start to fall. And every piece of evidence we have thus far indicates that that's what's happening. Now can you come back and say, well, you said this in late March and here we are in October and they're saying something different. Yeah, because when the facts change, I change my mind. But right Now I'm over 100% seats is 55. I would be semi disappointed if there was 53 Democratic seats.
- [04:28]
A
So your prediction right now is Democrats will take both the House and the Senate at this stage.
- [04:34]
B
Not just take, I mean, I'm talking about eight Senate seats or something like that. But if you look at it where we are at this moment, I don't know how a person could honestly draw another conclusion. The conclusion would be, well, once people's partisanship starts to kick in and people Trump people see what's at stake, that's fine and dandy. But right now all of the evidence would have pointed 55 of more Senate seats of the Democrats.
- [05:03]
A
I'm curious, when it comes to Trump, he did endorse in these state special elections, his candidate specifically in his own district, lost. When it comes to the Trump endorsement, is that a good thing for Republicans? When we look ahead to the general election, he has a lot of power in the primary, but what does that mean to you in the general?
- [05:19]
B
Of course, it doesn't help in general at all. Of course you want to run against Trump in Texas. Remember, Trump is 12 points underwater. Texas, okay, just let him endorse. And now he's scared in Dawson primaries. And you know what? If you talk to a Republican senator, Congress said, look, I got to get through the primary. If I get through that, I'll worry about the general. But, I mean, the idea is to fight to live another day. But I think increasingly you're starting to see, you start even seeing Nancy Mace, who's in a tight primary for governor, saying, I'm not for troops on the ground, walk out of this. And you're starting to see Mike Rogers, who's a Republican from Alabama, saying he's a big deal committee chance if we're not getting the answers on why we're there. And you see Roger Ricker, who's a Republican senator of Mississippi, said, well, I don't see anything that Congressman Rogers says that I disagree with. I mean, once these things start to break, they continue to break, and they get longer and the break gets wide. And I see every indication of that happening. And just given the general political climate, I would expect that to happen.
- [06:31]
A
I do want to talk about the war in Iran shortly. But before I go there, I do want to just say Democrats, they would want Trump on the campaign trail at this stage. That's a good thing for them. You think?
- [06:41]
B
Oh, yes. I mean, in a place where you, you, you. He could actually help the Republic, but you're not gonna win that anyway. Maybe you can still help in West Virginia, Tennessee, and maybe I'm not even. I think it's a lot closer. Probably people think probably Arkansas, Idaho, Wyoming. But once you get past those, you're in thin territory. If you look at all the states where he's underwater, it's very few that he's open, is higher than his disapproval and probably get worse.
- [07:15]
A
Yeah. It's interesting because he promised he would endorse in that Texas Senate race you brought up, but he has since not endorsed, and he said he would do it soon. Obviously, Ken Paxton was hedging and wasn't saying he would drop out if he endorsed Senator Cornyn. But do you expect these to be ongoing challenges? I mean, that runoff isn't until maybe, but it's looking uglier and uglier for Republicans just to get through this primary cycle.
- [07:40]
B
Well, Ken Paxton made one brilliant political move. He said, if the Senate passes the SAVE Act, I'll drop out. So now Trump can't. I mean, that was like, I'm not a chess player, but that was a Brilliant move. It was a bridge player as a double finesse. Right. He said, okay, I'll get out if you pay. And of course, doom, who's put $77 billion in Cohen's campaign. He has more do it because then we're going to rid of film buster because he knows that 55 Democratic senators are coming. So he's trying to. And his caucus knows that. I mean these people have, they think beyond the next minute and they're not going to break the filibuster for him. And then Paxton can tell Trump Gorn couldn't get it done for you. I would. It's literally that simple.
- [08:31]
A
Curious about what your thoughts are on President Trump this week. He voted in the special election in Florida by mail. He's doing it while he is attacking vote by mail. Part of the Save America act that you mentioned is this whole thing about the elections being rigged. His ongoing spiel, literally just this week he called it cheating and then he went and used it himself in the special election. What do you make of that?
- [08:56]
B
It's what we've known about Donald Trump since he's burst on the scene. He's a massive and blatant hypocrite. And the fact that he's engaged in hypocrisy is the ultimate dog bites man story. If you ever did something that was not hypocritical, you would say, wow, this is something different. But he does it every election. It's the same thing over and over. And of course you and I know is there's very little voter fraud in the United States. You can't say there's none, but it's almost, it's hard to find it. You got to look really hard to go up with it. And he is trying to do everything he can to shake people's confidence in the election. So he can say, I'm not going to pay attention to it. He's going to try something to mess with the election. What it is, I don't know. But we need to be prepared at all costs.
- [09:51]
A
I am curious about that. I mean, how do you think Democrats should combat the threats of the president to undermine the upcoming election? When he talks about cheating and the election being rigged, what should they be doing at this stage to combat some of that come November?
- [10:08]
B
Well, one of the things that I think is that you have all of these voter suppression laws that have been passed. He doesn't want you to have the election. In other words, if I were Democrats, what I'd say that's all the more reason for you to go out and vote. They're trying to make it hard for you. They think you won't vote. If we make the line five minutes longer, you show them you're going to vote. I would turn this into some level of positive energy on the part of Democrats. He doesn't think you capable of showing up and casting your vote. And the people in your county or your parish or your township or administer the election, you know they can count and show them and go up and vote. I would make it as voting is, if you will, an act of defiance. Is that. That always rallies people.
- [10:56]
A
That could be a point where they push back, if you will, the rallying cry.
- [11:02]
B
Right. If I tell. The thing that will make you want to do something more than anything else is if I. If I tell you you can't do that. What do me. Who are you not to boss me? That's going to make me want to do it more. So if somebody says, don't read this book because it's a dirty book, then you're going to go out and buy the book and read the book because they're telling you not to, not to read it. So all of human nature is people, particularly Americans, rebel against being told what to do. Now, the Democrats, we're traditionally like, no, eat your peas. Government is good for you. We're really trying to help. And this is the one instance where we have a chance to flip the script. We can be the rogues. We can be the outsiders. We can be the power, the establishment, the giant corporations, the tech companies, the grifters, the bitcoin people. They don't want you to vote, but you know better. You have the power in your hands not to be told what to do about a giant conglomerate of people who want to take advantage of you. That's my. Turn it around. You follow what I'm saying? Tell people. They're telling you you can't do this. You show them that you can.
- [12:15]
A
I'm curious, James. I mean, what for you is the most concerning? What keeps you up at night about the November midterm election?
- [12:22]
B
That he's going to try to seize ballots? He's not really doing that. He's going to try to put federal forces on the ground in that real trouble erupts and the trouble becomes contagious in his friends because he's literally playing with more than dynamite here. He's playing with napalm. And what really keeps me up at night is that he tries this. And then there's some flashpoint. There's Some incident, and the next thing you know, of course, that's exactly what he wants. So then he can claim, well, it's too violent. After Albert Plant, harsher law, myself president. Well, so that. Yes, that's what keeps me up, is that we have an overreaction to what he's almost certainly gonna do.
- [13:15]
A
I'm curious because Steve Bannon, this week, the mag architect behind Trump's first campaign, he was talking about the ice agents being sent into airports, and he was saying how that is basically a test ground for November's election. They're not running the screenings, but they can check IDs. Is that something you could see happening under the Trump administration?
- [13:37]
B
Of course I can. But the idea of having ice agents in airports is horrifically unpopular. But understand this. Bannon is odious as he is a person. I'm sure he's smarter than any of them on that side to call him. Right. And yes, what he's trying to do, Bannon knows, and even Trump, in his own primitive way, knows the Republicans will get slaughtered in November. So he's trying to lay the groundwork to have something like this. Because what they do know, what scares me is they can't have a free and fair election. That. That is an utter disaster for them. Again, that's 57 third seats. 248 house seats. I don't know, I can't translate it, but it's a lot on every level. They know that they're going to do everything they can to stop it. It's just literally that's where we are. And expect the worst. Expect the worst.
- [14:36]
A
In terms of the president you mentioned getting slaughtered, he has record low approval right now. I think to this week it hit 36% approval. Is there any way you see him being able to dig out of that trench between now and November?
- [14:49]
B
You know, I don't and I ask other people. All right, give me the scenario where he comes back and gets to 43.5, which would probably cost him the House. But not to say, well, it'd have to be a real spurt of economic growth. By the way, the OEDC, a big international economic forecast, says we're facing 4.22% inflation. Somehow another. They're all idiots and they're wrong. But we have 1.2% inflation that the Iranian government decides to establish a parliament in Tehran and hold free and fair elections and allow US bases on Iranian soil. If you ask me to fantasize, hike to turn around, I guess that would be one of the ways that A combination of those things happening now, how likely they are, I'll leave that to anybody else's mind that that's what happens. The question is what is more likely he's at 30, let's just say 38%. Let's just give it an even number consensus on October 15th is that number more likely to be 35 or 41 or just stay at 38. And my predictive abilities are no better than anybody else's but I kind of bet on 35.
- [16:21]
A
Fair enough. Do you think Republicans, in terms of the midterms before I move on to some other subjects, do you think they're going to come to regret their whole push to redistrict? Based on the president's polling, what we've seen with all these shifts in districts, these special elections they're still pushing including in Florida for redistricting in some of these cases. Do you think that's going to come back to haunt them?
- [16:41]
B
Well, I saw a presentation about a month ago from David Wasserman I think most people would agree is the kind of resident expert on redistrict and House seats and he said as a result of all of this, the Democrats have netted a half a House seat. At the end of the day when you add up Texas and California and Virginia and Indiana and the public does not much like this. They're thinking it's a referendum. Right. In Virginia I'd be kind of curious and I mean definitely if presidential likes of Virginia today, Democrats have been about 12 points. I'm curious to see how that turns out. The public is fairly uneasy with this. You saw that manifest itself even in Indiana state Senate.
- [17:30]
A
Yeah, I watched that one very closely and that was a rare case where we saw Republicans at the state level.
- [17:35]
B
Really In Kansas the same thing happened. It didn't get the same amount of publicity but the Republicans said no, we're not going to do that because they know this is crazy people. It's crazy that everybody says ain't the country the country is. First of all, we're not evenly divided, we're overwhelmingly anti Trump country and all but hardcore MAGA people in this country retain the sense of fairness that hey let's have a fair election, let everybody vote. Whoever wins, we got accepted and move on and live at the consequences. That's clearly not what Trump is. But I think that's where the country is and it's going to be a hard slog between 9 and November to get there. And we just because shows like yours we got to be vigilant we got to warn people we're nowhere to be prepared for anything.
- [18:27]
A
You mentioned the MAGA Republicans not being a majority. I found it kind of comical. We were talking about the Iran war and a lot of folks out of the White House, the comms team were touting the strong support for the Iran war among MAGA Republicans as their base in terms of. There is support behind it was their argument. Of course they also were going to what they would call fake news polls to show these the support that they say is out there. But you're saying MAGA Republicans are the minority at this point. So what do you make of those White House comms where they're really just pushing all this stuff that's just very pro Trump but not based in reality?
- [19:12]
B
Well, first of all, Magnus, maybe two thirds of the Republican Party, I'm just, I don't have a definitive number, but I'm sure people can mine that data to come up with a. But it's, it's not, it's not 92% of it. I can tell you that. It's some. And if you look at his Republican approval, his disapproval is now 13, 14, 15. That's a lot. It's best for people to understand and see. Well, among Republicans he's 85, 13 that among Democrats he's 97. You know, 397. Well that's a big differential. Laugh. And you know, there's a lot of, if you look at Mark Boban, I mean even, you know, Marty Taylor Green, you start to see some, some of the, even, you know, really MAGA people like or Talker or Joe Kent, you know, we really believe this anti interventionist stuff, man. We really did. I mean some people just any inventionist today called core and a lot of them, a sizable number of them were in maga. The rest of them say Trump said it. I believe it. That settles it. Okay. Those people probably not going to change very soon, but they're not, they're only 2/3 of 40%. They're not nearly 51% of the country.
- [20:36]
A
You talk about that 13% Republicans. I mean that's a huge amount when
- [20:41]
B
it comes to margins, more likely to continue to grow. That's a number that everybody says he's still solid with Republicans. And if you look at it and you go, well maybe he's got to be more solid than he is now.
- [20:54]
A
I bring that up also because I mean where you talk to people and you start to see some of the decline. I mean we have the Iran war, which I'll get to. But we also have this chaos going on in Washington. And I want to talk about the chaos going on on Capitol Hill. I mean, the President demanded that DHS funding be attached to his Save America act, which is about voting. And then he really immediately had to back off of that because Republicans rushed over to the White House and essentially talked him down on this ultimatum for Democrats. But I want to get your thoughts on who is really in control right now when it comes to Republicans. They have the White House, they have the House, they have the Senate. But there appears to be some chaos and it just continually brews as we're in the shutdown that's going on. I mean, we're approaching the longest shutdown in history for dhs.
- [21:45]
B
Well, the one person that we know that is not in charge, that has no gun fines is Mike Johnson. I mean, literally the guy, I guess you could say he's there. He's got to be the most ineffective and compliant speed of the House. Let's have a bid on the Senate side. Remember this TSA thing? Let me point out that Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, Senator Cruz worked out something to keep it open and Trump said he'd veto it. So they pulled it back. That Senator Kennedys and crew tell you that we worked out a deal. We could, all the Republican votes, we could open this and he told us not to. Well, it's just going to come a time that it's probably going to be after the election, unfortunately, that somebody gonna say, well, wait, wait a minute, we're the first branch of government. I think the Congress has established an Article 1 of the Constitution. I don't know what it means to be in Article 1, but apparently the founders thought it was a pretty important institution that followed. Interests and purposes no longer exists. So one of the things that will probably happen after November will. So now I'll go back to having. Well, can't say Supreme Court is a separate branch of government, but at least we could have one and a half branches of government maybe versus one and a half.
- [23:03]
A
You think there's going to be some kind of wake up call among Republicans after the midterms or you think because Democrats are going to take back the majority?
- [23:10]
B
Oh, no. You know, it's one thing to like anticipate what getting hit in the mouth by Mike Tyson you feel like is another thing to actually get hit in the mouth by Mike Tyson. Okay, I got hit in the mouth by Mike Tyson in 1994. You have no idea. And it's just I can't unless You've seen it, you can't describe it. And what's going to happen is everything, every narrative is going to change, every table key being jocked, that there's a lot of alignment and the Democrats have lost under 30 and Hispanics and suburban women and AAIP and all that is just going sucked right out of the door. And they're going to be faced with a highly energized Democratic Party and for the moment about as united as it can get. And they're going to be facing despair. Now what do they do? I don't know. They might say we just double down on where we are or how we extricate ourselves from this. And what they're going to all wake up and find out is Trump didn't care about them. You know, they all want to win reelection. They like having staff members and people go to the laundry and find first class and get picked up at the airport. A lot of them are going to go by the wayside and they're going to get angry at him. I really do. I think the residual anger that's coming is going to be pretty noticeable.
- [24:35]
A
You think it's going to be a lot more. Marjorie Taylor Greene's in the mix.
- [24:38]
B
Yeah, I think, I think Marjorie Taylor Greene is kind of independent minded woman and she's walked away. And I'm not, I'm, I'm, I'm not. I don't exist for him. I have my own in diamond. You start to see that more and more in Worldwide. Republicans said, look, I, I kind of agree with Jay said I can't do anything. I get killed back home and you're going to just go back home anyway. It don't matter. You're dead. Understand that you got no hope that you're going to lose 45 seats and you can't do anything to stop it. And he's not going to do. And he puts you in this position and he's not going to do one thing but to help in. The only advantage they have is the money advantage, which just is more corruption than you could imagine. You can imagine they can't raise enough special interest money to overcome the anger that people have. At least you can't. There's not that much money in the world. Are you stuck staring at your W2? Are tax refund worries holding you back? You probably have FOMO, the fear of messing up the fix using TurboTax on Intuit credit karma. They find every credit and deduction to help you get every refund dollar you deserve or your money back. It's time to overcome, overcome your fear of messing up and get your taxes done right. Start filing today in the Credit Karma app.
- [26:08]
A
At the same time, I mean, does it feel like Democrats are like also seeing that kind of money race and it doesn't really work the same way it used to. I mean, we've seen races where there's been floods of money that they've, it's done nothing. And in this case, you talk about it being just corruption and blatant corruption. I mean, that feels like that could be something that rallies Democrats more than Republicans.
- [26:33]
B
Well, I think it should. And the reason is I'm not saying Democrats are perfect, but we have no power. Political money tends to follow political power. Now it also follows the anticipation of political power. So there's a lot of PACs, there's a lot of bundlers out there that may be listening to the show and says, look, between now and November, you're smart lining up with the Republicans. But you better get straight here because come January 3rd of 2027, you're going to be faced with a whole different world. And as that reality sets into that community, I think you're going to see a pickup in high end Democratic fundraising. I think, Logan, Democratic fundraising is fine for right now.
- [27:23]
A
I mean, in terms of then where we're at on the Hill, they're failing to reach a deal to end this partial shutdown. I mean, we're seeing airport lines. I don't know about where you are, but talking about BWI chaos here in Baltimore, local airport is having insane lines. We've seen crazy lines in Houston. Is this something that Democrats should fear they could get blamed over at any point in this?
- [27:47]
B
Not really get a two word about because the Republicans are in total charge of the government. There was actually a Republican solution that Trump figured out. This is a Trump. Understand in the coming election, there's one issue and one issue of it Trump. Nothing else matters. Okay, if you like it, vote Republican. If you don't vote Democratic, I can't make it any simpler than that. You talk about the tsa, you can argue, well, we put this, we wanted to separate that out. The bill, we wanted to stand alone, wanted to point a. Reagan said the Republicans hate government. They love shutting it down. They love shutting TSA down. They even came to the point where they tried to. They had a credible plan to reopen it. And of course, Trump is the reason that it's closed. This is a Trump. You cannot say the word Trump too much in a sentence. And if you say Republicans, excuse me, I meant Trump practice it to mirror saying, I will not say 10 words without mentioning Trump's name to our Father, Lord in heaven. I'll be in the
- [28:58]
A
I don't know if the Lord's Prayer and Trump really belong together.
- [29:01]
B
I'm just making up, I'm using the exaggerated point. Just said, you can't bring him enough into the fray.
- [29:10]
A
I understand where you're going with that. I do want to ask you about while we're on the Trump, I was watching him this week. I mean, you could have been watching him since February 28, where he's been going back and forth over Iran and whether the US Is winning this war or whether he'll even call it a war while calling it a war minutes earlier in some cases this week. But he said the US has won the war. At the same time, though, we are sending thousands of US Troops to the region. It's not clear really where this is headed. Republicans on Capitol Hill this week, when I was up there, are frustrated about not getting answers. What does this all suggest to you, the reality of Trump giving mixed messaging but declaring a victory through it all?
- [29:58]
B
Well, it goes back to the origin, the reason of the origin of the war. Never forget that the reason this war started is because Trump, quote, felt it in his bones, unquote. Now, his most famous bone is his bone legend made up bone spur that got him to stay out of Vietnam. But he said the only reason we did this is because of his bones. Well, his bones are as stupid as his brain. And I think Republicans increasingly know that, like Mike Rogers or Roger Wick, they're saying it out loud. There's no reason for this. They never gave us a reason. And Phil Clay, vet on the Iraq war, articulate. He said, look, I served in Iraq. I could have told you why I was there. And it turned out to be not a very good reason. But there was a reason. There's no, nobody, no, no Marine that hits the ground anywhere can tell you what he's doing there, what he's fighting for, because no one knows. Trump doesn't even know. So, you know, sometimes you fight for something like the Rob boy. There was a reason. It on the surface, it looked like a good reason, but it didn't work out. It turned out that would be true, that you could use American military right to reform people into being small D Democrats. But it was a Reese, okay. You could actually articulate. No one can articulate why are we there. Introducing home care plus a new subscription service from Lowe's that helps make life easier by giving members of Hand with home maintenance. Let Lowe's tackle the tasks you keep meaning to do, like electric dryer, vent cleaning, replacing hard to reach light bulbs and more. Subscribe to Home Care plus for just 99 a year and consider your to do list done. Members get more at Lowe's. Available in select zip codes only. Cancel anytime. Non refundable fee. Product purchase required Terms and service restrictions apply. Details@lowe's.com Terms subject to change.
- [32:08]
A
It does feel like they're trying to scramble for an off ramp at this point. I mean, do you see an off ramp here where they are able to move forward that isn't one politically detrimental for them in November or two where it doesn't make them just look like they have egg on their face.
- [32:26]
B
So one of my favorite movies you should rewatch it is Gandhi. And so they're at this long conference table in this British colonial administrator, high end agent of the Crown says, you don't think that we're just going to get up and walk out of here, do you? And Gandhi says, yes, that's exactly what you're going to do. You're going to get up and just walk out of here. That's what we're going to do. We're just going to get up and go home and he may try to get some statement or declaration or something. We're just going to leave thy heart. Just take the Gerald Ford, reassign it to the South China Sea, bring everybody back, rebuild the ordinance. Bring all of the stuff we got. Say, hey, we got a lot more serious things to do in this world. Our ordinance has been depleted, which is we're running out of bombs. People don't realize that there's a finite number of bombs you have. And we've hit, I read 17,000 different targets in Iran. We're pounding Sam now. And the one thing we know is if you bomb people, they tend not to like it. I can't imagine why somebody would not want to be bombed in the middle of the night, but apparently they don't like it.
- [33:50]
A
I'm curious what your thoughts were if you saw it at all earlier this week where he was talking about Iran and how they gave the US this present and he wouldn't say what this present was. Apparently it left White House aides baffled. What were your thoughts on that when you saw that if at all in terms of him letting it happen there?
- [34:11]
B
My first thought was the emoluments clause in the Constitution, but then I busted out laughing. That kind of thing it said. It just makes stuff up. It sounds like. Because if he says that, it sounds like there's been my people will believe that they're trying to suck up to me because I'm winning the war by so big. That's all. It's just another, just another lie. And you'll never know because there's nothing at the bottom of it. Well, that sounds good. I'll just say it.
- [34:47]
A
I mean, in terms of getting out of this situation, if the negotiations do move forward, who in this administration do you have confidence in negotiating? We had Jared Kushner, we had Steve Witkoff that we bombed. We have JD Vance apparently getting in and Margar Ruby has been in. In it the throughout. I mean, who, who would you have confidence in, in this administration to move forward?
- [35:11]
B
The one that gets the biggest bribe. I don't know Woff Jared, who it is. But if anything happens that somebody's going to get the license to build a resort on the Persian Gulf, I don't know, whatever they do, just open up all company or something. That that's, that's about, you know, usually a creative diplomats, they have ethics, rules, they have things that they follow. They said this all of a sudden, not now. We just go right to, I mean, there's all kinds of stories that say do arithmetic on how much the Trump family has made since the election. And I've heard figures it's $4 billion. It's a lot of money. To me it is anyway. But all of this is done through financial transactions, diplomacy. This is not the way we do business in the United States today. We don't have diplomats, we have grifters. And that's who's in charge of the country, who's in charge of the peace, in charge of war, in charge of everything.
- [36:22]
A
I mean, during your illustrious career, have we ever been in a situation like this, like what you're seeing with the conflict with Iran?
- [36:29]
B
No. So this is the question. When you're in a situation like this, people say, well, you got to admit that the Democrats have this kind of problem. All you gotta admit, Trump was right to get rid of the penny. You know, I could have written a thousand word essay on why Japan had reasons to be aggrieved on December 1, 1941. I couldn't have wrote that same essay on January 1, 1942, because nothing justified what's happening. And that's my complaint with both siders. It tries to make a 9010 situation look like a 5050 situation. It is no such thing. And if People say, well, James, you have Trump Derangement Syndrome. My answer is yes, if we know there are times in times in history where insanity is so prevalent that insanity is actually the same reaction. In a novel, Catch 22, as I pointed out, the guy said, I don't want to fly because I'm insane. And the psychiatrist said, the fact that you're insane makes you sane. So if you're sane right now, go to the psychiatrist because you're really, truly insane. If you're insane, you're fine. You're in the norm, profoundly normal range, because that's the only thing something like this can do. This level of creation is if it doesn't make you crazy, then, well, you're crazy. That's what I could explain.
- [38:16]
A
In this crazy world that we're in, do you see a scenario where we're still in Iran in November or bombing Iran in November?
- [38:25]
B
Honestly, off the top of my head, I don't know. But, you know, as Jodi Barra said, predictions are hard to make, especially about the future and especially in an area, but I don't think there's any appetite to be there now. I don't think there's one. I would love if this country would turn around the understandable. We got Iranian people, some of the most talented people on earth. I mean, half the people in our country have a high higher education degree, and half of them are women. I mean, the regime is autocratic. It's not democratic, it has no respect for human rights, it engages in international crime. But the Iranian people are very talented, and I would dream one day that they'd come back into the community of same nations. But I think what we're doing now is delaying that day, not accelerating that day.
- [39:23]
A
I mean, Trump says we're winning. He's apparently watching montage videos as his briefing of us winning. I. I'm just curious on your thoughts on that before I let you go. It's a. It's a video compilation. That is his briefing as he declares the US Is militarily winning this war.
- [39:41]
B
Well, I'm a veteran of the Vietnam era, and all I heard was how much we were winning. We were winning so much, our heads were spent. We had lower casualty counts. We dropped more bonds, we did more. But you know what we didn't do? We didn't win the war. And I mean, if you. There's a lot of strategists and people that understand this kind of thing a lot more than I do. What is winning? I mean, if I go, I watch a baseball game last night, the opening night in San Francisco. There was a score, right? We know who. But war, War's not like that. It's different.
- [40:22]
A
All right, James Carville, it's a pleasure to speak with you and I hope we do this again in the future. That was our show with James Carville. I was particularly interested in what he had to say and his ominous warning about the midterms and what Trump might do do as he questions the validity of the election. But Carville making some bold predictions about who will come out on top and saying that Democrats can take not just the House, but he predicts also the Senate. It'll be something to keep an eye on moving forward. For now, we encourage you to join us in the conversation. Sign up for our YouTube channel. Follow us on social media with that. I'm Sarah Ewal Weiss with the Daily Beast. Thank you so much. So the good news is we have
- [41:13]
B
so many bee beast tier members now,
- [41:15]
A
there are too many names to read out.
- [41:17]
B
And we really appreciate your support.
- [41:20]
A
Thanks to our production team.
- [41:22]
B
Devon Rogerino, Ryan Murray, Rachel Passer, Heather Passaro, Neil Rosenhaus.