Summary of "A 1,400-County Crisis for Democrats" – The Daily by The New York Times
Release Date: June 3, 2025
Introduction
In this episode of The Daily, host Michael Barbaro delves into a comprehensive county-by-county analysis conducted by reporter Shane Goldmacher. The focus is on the significant shift in the American electoral map over the past four presidential races, highlighting a "1,400-County Crisis" that poses a substantial challenge for the Democratic Party.
Shane Goldmacher’s Analysis
Shane Goldmacher embarked on an extensive study examining every county in the United States, totaling over 3,100, to understand the evolving political landscape since Donald Trump became a prominent figure in American politics. By comparing election results from 2012—a pre-Trump baseline—to the subsequent three elections in which Trump was a candidate, Goldmacher aimed to uncover the depth and breadth of the Republican Party's gains.
Quote:
“It’s a flashing alarm that’s a sea of red.”
— Shane Goldmacher [04:02]
Key Findings
-
Massive Republican Shift:
- Over 1,400 counties have trended continuously Republican since Trump's entry into the political arena.
- In stark contrast, fewer than 2% of counties have shown a consistent shift toward the Democratic Party, with only 57 counties moving left.
Quote:
“Nearly half of the counties in the entire country have trended Republican. And less than 2% of the nation's counties have trended Democratic.”
— Shane Goldmacher [04:16] -
Population Impact:
- The counties gaining Republican strength are home to approximately 42 million people, vastly outnumbering the 8 million residing in the counties shifting Democratic.
Quote:
“There’s something around 42 million to 8 million people.”
— Shane Goldmacher [04:35] -
Class Over Race:
- The traditional voting predictors based on race are diminishing. Instead, class has emerged as the predominant factor influencing electoral outcomes.
- Trump’s appeal has broadened beyond white, rural voters to include working-class, diverse, and urban populations.
Quote:
“Class is becoming the greatest predictor, the most important predictor.”
— Shane Goldmacher [09:48]
Implications for the Democratic Party
The data presents a dire scenario for Democrats, indicating a systemic erosion of their traditional voter base among working-class and diverse communities. This shift suggests that the Democratic Party must reassess and potentially overhaul its strategies to reconnect with these pivotal voter segments.
Quote:
“The Democratic Party has essentially identified itself as the party of the working class… the results show that working-class voters no longer see the party that way.”
— Shane Goldmacher [12:21]
Specific County Examples
-
Los Alamos, New Mexico:
- Serves as a rare Democratic stronghold in a predominantly Republican region.
- The presence of the Los Alamos National Laboratory, with its highly educated and affluent population, contributes to its Democratic lean.
Quote:
“Los Alamos is this one little blue arrow in the Democratic direction in the Southwest because it is one of the highest income, highest educated corners of the country.”
— Shane Goldmacher [07:31] -
Starr County, Texas:
- The most significant county-level shift, transitioning 89 percentage points from Democratic to Republican from 2012 to 2024.
- Notably the most predominantly Latino county in America, exemplifying the broader trend of Latino voters moving Republican.
Quote:
“Starr county is the county that has moved the most in the entire country from 2012 to 2024.”
— Shane Goldmacher [08:45]
Internal Debates Within the Democratic Party
The Democratic Party faces internal divisions on how to address the crisis:
-
Populist Wing:
- Advocates for a shift towards economic populism, focusing on anti-elite sentiments and policies that resonate with working-class voters across diverse backgrounds.
- Figures like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez embody this approach by championing economic reforms and grassroots engagement.
Quote:
“We can go on the offense and we can even move to the left on policy… We need to tap into where voters are and voters are upset.”
— Shane Goldmacher [22:33] -
Moderate Wing:
- Prefers maintaining centrist positions, fearing that aggressive populist strategies may alienate certain voter groups.
- Concerns revolve around implementing policies that, while progressive, might not align with the immediate interests and perceptions of the broader electorate.
Quote:
“There's a different faction of the Democratic Party that is moderate, that does not want to move that direction.”
— Shane Goldmacher [22:33]
Future Outlook
Goldmacher emphasizes the urgency for the Democratic Party to innovate and adapt. Without significant changes, the party risks continued losses and potential definitional crises moving forward into future elections.
Quote:
“There’s no debate that the Democratic Party does not have a future if it can’t make inroads again with working class voters.”
— Shane Goldmacher [24:04]
Notable Quotes
-
Shane Goldmacher [04:16]:
“Nearly half of the counties in the entire country have trended Republican. And less than 2% of the nation's counties have trended Democratic.” -
Shane Goldmacher [09:48]:
“Class is becoming the greatest predictor, the most important predictor.” -
Shane Goldmacher [12:21]:
“The Democratic Party has essentially identified itself as the party of the working class… the results show that working-class voters no longer see the party that way.” -
Shane Goldmacher [22:33]:
“We need to tap into where voters are and voters are upset.” -
Shane Goldmacher [24:04]:
“There’s no debate that the Democratic Party does not have a future if it can’t make inroads again with working class voters.”
Conclusion
The episode underscores a pivotal moment for the Democratic Party, facing a substantial and data-backed electoral shift orchestrated over a decade of Republican gains. As the party grapples with internal strategic debates, the insights from Goldmacher's analysis serve as a clarion call for transformative action to reclaim and stabilize its voter base amidst an evolving American political landscape.