Podcast Summary: The Daily – "A Guide to Election Night 2024"

Host: The New York Times
Hosts: Michael Barbaro and Sabrina Tavernise
Episode Title: A Guide to Election Night 2024

Introduction

In the episode titled "A Guide to Election Night 2024," The New York Times' "The Daily" provides listeners with an in-depth roadmap for navigating the complexities of Election Night. Hosted by Michael Barbaro and featuring expert Nate Cohn, the episode delves into potential election scenarios, key battleground states, voting processes, and the implications of various outcomes.

Emotional Landscape of Voters

Michael Barbaro opens the discussion by capturing the emotional state of voters:

"Can I ask you to describe how you're feeling in one word? Nervous." (00:00)

Nate Cohn echoes these sentiments, highlighting the anxiety and anticipation surrounding the election:

"Anxious? Nervous." (01:03)

This emotional backdrop sets the stage for understanding the high stakes and personal investments voters have in this pivotal election.

The Three Election Scenarios

Nate Cohn outlines three plausible outcomes for the election, emphasizing that each scenario is credible and could appear predictable in hindsight:

"One scenario is a decisive victory for Kamala Harris... A second scenario is the total flip side of that... A third scenario, which is yet another really close election." (03:12 - 05:33)

1. Decisive Victory for Kamala Harris:

   • Key Factors: Repudiation of Donald Trump, Democratic overperformance in past elections, and Harris’s regained momentum.
   • Outcome: Strong lead in popular vote and battleground states.

2. Decisive Victory for Donald Trump:

   • Key Factors: Continuation of his 2016 populist realignment, expanding support among various demographics.
   • Outcome: Wins the popular vote and sweeps crucial battleground states.

3. A Very Close Election:

   • Key Factors: Tight margins in swing states requiring extensive vote counting.
   • Outcome: Prolonged vote tallying with no immediate clear winner, reminiscent of the 2020 election night.

Michael Barbaro probes the reliability of polling, questioning potential systematic errors that could misrepresent the true support for either candidate:

"The polling that you have been intimately involved in for a year would have to have been systematically off..." (04:25)

Election Night Chronology and Key States

Nate Cohn breaks down the election night process, starting with the Southern states:

1. Southern Swing States: North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Georgia

• Voting Closure Times:

  • Virginia, most of Florida, and Georgia close at 7:00 PM Eastern.
  • North Carolina closes at 7:30 PM Eastern. (06:00 - 06:14)

• Early Vote Trends:
  Early votes typically lean Democratic, potentially giving Harris an initial lead. However, Election Day votes often favor Republicans, possibly shifting the lead.

  "The early vote will tilt a little bit Democratic." (06:48)

• Mirages:
  Cohn explains the phenomenon where early vote counts (typically Democratic) create misleading projections:

  "Based on Democratic early voting numbers, which tend to be high, versus Election Day voting numbers, which tend to tilt towards Republicans." (07:06)

  However, he notes that the "mirage" effect will be less pronounced this year due to:

  • Fewer Democrats voting by mail.
  • Increased early turnout among Republicans.

  "The Democratic advantage in the early vote has significantly reduced." (07:31)

• Implications of Results in the South:

  • Repudiation Scenario: Harris likely leads in North Carolina and Georgia, possibly competitive in Florida, and wins comfortably in Virginia.
  • Trump Realignment Scenario: Trump may secure North Carolina and Georgia by multiple points, potentially dominating Florida and making Virginia competitive.
  • Toss-Up Scenario: Results remain uncertain into the night, pending Election Day vote counts.

Michael Barbaro underscores the importance of these states in the Electoral College:

"If Kamala Harris cannot win either of those two states, then her road to 270 gets very narrow very quickly." (09:20)

2. Northern Battleground States: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin

• Timing of Vote Counts:
  These states will start reporting later in the evening, around 9:00 to 10:00 PM Eastern, due to slower mail ballot processing.

  "Those states are not going to count their votes especially fast." (10:02)

• Counting Delays:
  Differences in mail ballot laws and varying county-level technologies contribute to slower counts.

  "Different procedures for how they count their votes." (11:08)

• Impact on Electoral Math:

  • If Trump Wins the South: Harris would need to dominate Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to reach 270 electoral votes, often requiring an Arizona sweep.
  • If Harris Wins the South: Trump's path would require sweeping northern states, which are trending unfavorably for him.

  "If Harris has won North Carolina, she can afford to lose in Michigan or Wisconsin, but not Pennsylvania..." (09:21 - 12:28)

Michael Barbaro highlights Pennsylvania's pivotal role:

"Pennsylvania is the key variable here." (13:25)

3. Western States: Arizona, Nevada, California

• Vote Counting Timeline:
  These states will take the longest to finalize due to extensive mail ballot processing and procedural differences.

  "The final phase is the west, which we will be watching for weeks and weeks to come." (15:57)

• Impact on Election Calls:

  • Arizona: Predominantly mail-in voting with slow counts.
  • Nevada: Smaller but crucial for tight Electoral College outcomes.
  • California: Large mail ballot volume significantly delaying final counts.

  "Arizona is a larger battleground state, but it's not a very large battleground state." (17:19 - 18:04)

• Implications for National Popular Vote and House Control:
  Delays in the West can affect projections for the House of Representatives and the national popular vote, potentially fueling unfounded claims of election fraud.

  "National popular vote, you should expect a modest red mirage." (20:34)

Managing Uncertainty and Prolonged Counting

Nate Cohn advises that decisive victories should be clear by election night, akin to Barack Obama's 2012 win:

"If it's a clear victory in the southern states or in the northern states, that we should know on election night." (21:37)

However, in tight races, especially hinging on Pennsylvania and other northern states, results could extend into the following days:

"If Harris wins North Carolina, she can afford to lose in Michigan or Wisconsin, but not Pennsylvania..." (12:28)

Michael Barbaro reflects on the emotional toll of prolonged uncertainty, recalling the 2020 experience:

"I was in a car driving on the highway... we waited and it was genuinely a ride." (22:00 - 22:37)

Conclusion

As Election Night unfolds, "The Daily" equips listeners with the knowledge to interpret early results, understand vote-counting processes across key states, and anticipate potential election scenarios. The interplay between Southern, Northern, and Western battleground states will be critical in determining the ultimate outcome, with Pennsylvania standing out as the decisive factor in this tightly contested race.

Notable Quotes:

• Michael Barbaro: "Everyone is going to be heartbroken on both sides. I guess we just have to wait and see." (01:40)
• Nate Cohn: "Each county is doing it differently. So that can create very different rates of counting mail ballots, not only by state, but even within different parts of a state." (11:36)
• Michael Barbaro: "The national vote is relatively close, let's say Harris is only going to win in the end by one point." (19:35)

This comprehensive guide aims to demystify the complexities of Election Night 2024, providing listeners with clarity amidst the chaos and ensuring they remain informed throughout the vote-counting process.