A Guide to Election Night 2024

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Daily – "A Guide to Election Night 2024"

Host: The New York Times
Hosts: Michael Barbaro and Sabrina Tavernise
Episode Title: A Guide to Election Night 2024

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Introduction

In the episode titled "A Guide to Election Night 2024," The New York Times' "The Daily" provides listeners with an in-depth roadmap for navigating the complexities of Election Night. Hosted by Michael Barbaro and featuring expert Nate Cohn, the episode delves into potential election scenarios, key battleground states, voting processes, and the implications of various outcomes.

Emotional Landscape of Voters

Michael Barbaro opens the discussion by capturing the emotional state of voters:

"Can I ask you to describe how you're feeling in one word? Nervous." (00:00)

Nate Cohn echoes these sentiments, highlighting the anxiety and anticipation surrounding the election:

"Anxious? Nervous." (01:03)

This emotional backdrop sets the stage for understanding the high stakes and personal investments voters have in this pivotal election.

The Three Election Scenarios

Nate Cohn outlines three plausible outcomes for the election, emphasizing that each scenario is credible and could appear predictable in hindsight:

"One scenario is a decisive victory for Kamala Harris... A second scenario is the total flip side of that... A third scenario, which is yet another really close election." (03:12 - 05:33)

1. Decisive Victory for Kamala Harris:

   • Key Factors: Repudiation of Donald Trump, Democratic overperformance in past elections, and Harris’s regained momentum.
   • Outcome: Strong lead in popular vote and battleground states.

2. Decisive Victory for Donald Trump:

   • Key Factors: Continuation of his 2016 populist realignment, expanding support among various demographics.
   • Outcome: Wins the popular vote and sweeps crucial battleground states.

3. A Very Close Election:

   • Key Factors: Tight margins in swing states requiring extensive vote counting.
   • Outcome: Prolonged vote tallying with no immediate clear winner, reminiscent of the 2020 election night.

Michael Barbaro probes the reliability of polling, questioning potential systematic errors that could misrepresent the true support for either candidate:

"The polling that you have been intimately involved in for a year would have to have been systematically off..." (04:25)

Election Night Chronology and Key States

Nate Cohn breaks down the election night process, starting with the Southern states:

1. Southern Swing States: North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Georgia

• Voting Closure Times:

  • Virginia, most of Florida, and Georgia close at 7:00 PM Eastern.
  • North Carolina closes at 7:30 PM Eastern. (06:00 - 06:14)

• Early Vote Trends:
  Early votes typically lean Democratic, potentially giving Harris an initial lead. However, Election Day votes often favor Republicans, possibly shifting the lead.

  "The early vote will tilt a little bit Democratic." (06:48)

• Mirages:
  Cohn explains the phenomenon where early vote counts (typically Democratic) create misleading projections:

  "Based on Democratic early voting numbers, which tend to be high, versus Election Day voting numbers, which tend to tilt towards Republicans." (07:06)

  However, he notes that the "mirage" effect will be less pronounced this year due to:

  • Fewer Democrats voting by mail.
  • Increased early turnout among Republicans.

  "The Democratic advantage in the early vote has significantly reduced." (07:31)

• Implications of Results in the South:

  • Repudiation Scenario: Harris likely leads in North Carolina and Georgia, possibly competitive in Florida, and wins comfortably in Virginia.
  • Trump Realignment Scenario: Trump may secure North Carolina and Georgia by multiple points, potentially dominating Florida and making Virginia competitive.
  • Toss-Up Scenario: Results remain uncertain into the night, pending Election Day vote counts.

Michael Barbaro underscores the importance of these states in the Electoral College:

"If Kamala Harris cannot win either of those two states, then her road to 270 gets very narrow very quickly." (09:20)

2. Northern Battleground States: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin

• Timing of Vote Counts:
  These states will start reporting later in the evening, around 9:00 to 10:00 PM Eastern, due to slower mail ballot processing.

  "Those states are not going to count their votes especially fast." (10:02)

• Counting Delays:
  Differences in mail ballot laws and varying county-level technologies contribute to slower counts.

  "Different procedures for how they count their votes." (11:08)

• Impact on Electoral Math:

  • If Trump Wins the South: Harris would need to dominate Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to reach 270 electoral votes, often requiring an Arizona sweep.
  • If Harris Wins the South: Trump's path would require sweeping northern states, which are trending unfavorably for him.

  "If Harris has won North Carolina, she can afford to lose in Michigan or Wisconsin, but not Pennsylvania..." (09:21 - 12:28)

Michael Barbaro highlights Pennsylvania's pivotal role:

"Pennsylvania is the key variable here." (13:25)

3. Western States: Arizona, Nevada, California

• Vote Counting Timeline:
  These states will take the longest to finalize due to extensive mail ballot processing and procedural differences.

  "The final phase is the west, which we will be watching for weeks and weeks to come." (15:57)

• Impact on Election Calls:

  • Arizona: Predominantly mail-in voting with slow counts.
  • Nevada: Smaller but crucial for tight Electoral College outcomes.
  • California: Large mail ballot volume significantly delaying final counts.

  "Arizona is a larger battleground state, but it's not a very large battleground state." (17:19 - 18:04)

• Implications for National Popular Vote and House Control:
  Delays in the West can affect projections for the House of Representatives and the national popular vote, potentially fueling unfounded claims of election fraud.

  "National popular vote, you should expect a modest red mirage." (20:34)

Managing Uncertainty and Prolonged Counting

Nate Cohn advises that decisive victories should be clear by election night, akin to Barack Obama's 2012 win:

"If it's a clear victory in the southern states or in the northern states, that we should know on election night." (21:37)

However, in tight races, especially hinging on Pennsylvania and other northern states, results could extend into the following days:

"If Harris wins North Carolina, she can afford to lose in Michigan or Wisconsin, but not Pennsylvania..." (12:28)

Michael Barbaro reflects on the emotional toll of prolonged uncertainty, recalling the 2020 experience:

"I was in a car driving on the highway... we waited and it was genuinely a ride." (22:00 - 22:37)

Conclusion

As Election Night unfolds, "The Daily" equips listeners with the knowledge to interpret early results, understand vote-counting processes across key states, and anticipate potential election scenarios. The interplay between Southern, Northern, and Western battleground states will be critical in determining the ultimate outcome, with Pennsylvania standing out as the decisive factor in this tightly contested race.

Notable Quotes:

• Michael Barbaro: "Everyone is going to be heartbroken on both sides. I guess we just have to wait and see." (01:40)
• Nate Cohn: "Each county is doing it differently. So that can create very different rates of counting mail ballots, not only by state, but even within different parts of a state." (11:36)
• Michael Barbaro: "The national vote is relatively close, let's say Harris is only going to win in the end by one point." (19:35)

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This comprehensive guide aims to demystify the complexities of Election Night 2024, providing listeners with clarity amidst the chaos and ensuring they remain informed throughout the vote-counting process.

Transcript

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Can advise, finance and close deals around the world. Learn [e-mail] clientstories who did you vote for?

[Michael Barbaro]

Oh, Kamala Harvey. 100%. I like it.

[Nate Cohn]

I voted Kamala.

[Michael Barbaro]

Yeah, I want to see Mr. Trump go way far away for Trump. Donald Trump. I had to vote for Trump. I felt more connected to that. Plus he was in my husband. Neither of them. Jill Stein for president.

[Nate Cohn]

I left it blank.

[Michael Barbaro]

I was indecisive and I wasn't really too keen on voting on who I.

[Nate Cohn]

Was going to vote for.

[Michael Barbaro]

From the New York Times, I'm Michael Balbaro. This is the Daily. Can I ask you to describe how you're feeling in one word? Nervous.

[Nate Cohn]

Anxious? Nervous.

[Michael Barbaro]

I just feel it's a lot chaos. After two years of campaigning, more than a billion dollars of advertising and a last minute change to one of the nominees, the 2024 race for president is now in the hands of of the American voters. This is the most important election that.

[Nate Cohn]

I'm going to vote in in my adult life.

[Michael Barbaro]

I think, you know, walking up here made me emotional because I look at.

[Nate Cohn]

My daughter and I know that I'm.

[Michael Barbaro]

Voting for her future.

[Nate Cohn]

No matter who wins, one side or the other is going to feel like they've been cheated.

[Michael Barbaro]

Everyone is going to be heartbroken on both sides. I guess we just have to wait and see. Today as the ballot counting begins, my colleague Nate Cohn offers a guide for how to understand tonight's results. It's Tuesday, November 5th. Nate, Michael, thank you for coming in.

[Nate Cohn]

Thanks for having me.

[Michael Barbaro]

Happy Election Day.

[Nate Cohn]

Happy Election Day. Can you believe it?

[Michael Barbaro]

I can't.

[Nate Cohn]

I can't really either.

[Michael Barbaro]

So, Nate, we are here today to do something we started doing last election, which is offer our listeners a roadmap to election night because starting around 7pm Eastern tonight, everyone's screens are going to be flooded with vote tallies and breaking news banners about projected state victories. And it's confusing. And so we want to give people a user's guide to the entire night with you as our guide. So guide away. Guide us.

[Nate Cohn]

Well, let's just start by observing there are three basic scenarios for what could happen. And keep these in mind as we go through the chronology of the night because at different points we may know different things Depending on what is really going on.

[Michael Barbaro]

So our guide begins with scenarios.

[Nate Cohn]

And one thing I want to note about these three scenarios is that I think they're all very plausible.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay.

[Nate Cohn]

In fact, in each case, I think we could tell ourselves after the fact, we should have seen it coming all along. One scenario is a decisive victory for Kamala Harris, a repudiation of Donald Trump. After all, he led an insurrection. On January 6th, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade. Democrats have been overperforming in special elections and midterm elections. And Kamala Harris has been gaining, certainly over the longer stretch of this race, back to when Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee. If in the end, the race broke her way, it would not be a great surprise and she could win a decisive victory, clearly in the popular vote and in the battleground states. A second scenario is the total flip side of that. A decisive victory for Donald Trump, the culmination, really, of the populist realignment that he unleashed in 2016. In this scenario, the white working class voters who he won in 2016 stick by his side, but now he adds to it, the black working class and Hispanic working class and young voters. That's a scenario where he wins the popular vote, the first Republican to win the popular vote since 2004. It's a Trump sweep of the seven battleground states in all likelihood.

[Michael Barbaro]

I just want to point out that for either of these two first scenarios to be true, the repudiation of Trump, big Harris victory, the Trump realignment, big Trump victory. The polling that you have been intimately involved in for a year would have to have been systematically off to a degree, either systematically underestimating her support or systematically underestimating his support.

[Nate Cohn]

That's right. And it's worth noting that it doesn't take too much of a systematic error either way for this election to quickly look like a pretty decisive victory. The polls are basically tied everywhere after all, Right? Move that three points to the left or three points to the right. Things feel really differently, really fast, right? That said, if the polls are right and it is really close, then we have our third scenario, which is yet another really close election. All of these swing states are decided by 1 or 2 percentage points. We have to stay up all night to count the votes. Obviously, there are a lot of different versions of this scenario. One where Trump wins narrowly, one where Harris wins narrowly. But either way, we have yet another election with Donald Trump on the ballot. Yet another close election.

[Michael Barbaro]

Basically, this third scenario is a repeat of the grinding slog that was the 2020 presidential race?

[Nate Cohn]

Yes.

[Michael Barbaro]

It's close as hell, and we don't have an outcome for quite some time.

[Nate Cohn]

You've got it.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay. These are gonna be useful touchstones, I suspect, as we turn to the question of how all this is gonna unfold tonight, hour by hour. So walk us through that as best you can. Where do you want to start?

[Nate Cohn]

We start in the South. That's where the polls will close first in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Georgia.

[Michael Barbaro]

What time is it in our clock?

[Nate Cohn]

7:00Pm in Virginia and most of Florida and Georgia. And 7:30 in North Carolina.

[Michael Barbaro]

Polls closed there.

[Nate Cohn]

And while you might think after the way the vote count went in 2020, that it could be a week before we know anything there in these states, we're going to know a lot fast. We could even have race calls in all of these states, even in a fairly close election, by midnight. Some of that's because the number of mail ballots have plummeted. Some of it is because the states have improved their procedures. In all of them, the early vote will tilt a little bit Democratic. The early vote is usually counted first, so Harris could come out to an early lead in North Carolina, for instance. Trump would hope to counter on Election Day.

[Michael Barbaro]

You're hinting at something that I think we all remember really well from 2020, which is this concept of the mirages, which is to say that the minute the polls close and the tallies begin to appear on our screens, they start to misrepresent a total outcome.

[Nate Cohn]

Exactly.

[Michael Barbaro]

Based on Democratic early voting numbers, which tend to be high, versus Election Day voting numbers, which tend to tilt towards Republicans. So you're saying we're going to immediately start to see either red or blue mirages of some kind?

[Nate Cohn]

Yes. That said, I do want to note that there will be a lot less mirage y than four years ago. The gap between the early vote and the Election Day vote is poised to be significantly reduced.

[Michael Barbaro]

Hmm.

[Nate Cohn]

There are both fewer Democrats participating by mail and more Republicans decided to turn out early in person. And the combination of those two things has significantly reduced the Democratic advantage in the early vote.

[Michael Barbaro]

Got it. And thus made the mirages a little less mirage y.

[Nate Cohn]

Much less mirage. Yeah.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay. What should we be looking for in terms of wins, losses, calls for Trump or Harris in these key Southern swing states? That will start to give us a feel for whether we're looking at scenarios 1, 2, or 3.

[Nate Cohn]

So in the repudiation scenario, Harris is probably leading in North Carolina and Georgia from the start. And by the time 9pm 10pm rolls around and that Election Day vote is coming in. She's still holding. Maybe she's a little more competitive in Florida than people assumed. And Virginia is a comfortable victory for her.

[Michael Barbaro]

Got it.

[Nate Cohn]

In the Trump realignment scenario, these states may not be close and we could have relatively early calls in Georgia, North Carolina in favor of Trump. He could win them by multiple percentage points. Virginia looks much closer than Democrats hoped, and Florida is a landslide. In the toss up scenario, we may still find that those states are toss ups by 9 or 10pm and we have to wait to see the exact election day turn out county by county before we're able to make a call in those states.

[Michael Barbaro]

All right, which of the Southern states should we be watching most closely during this first wave?

[Nate Cohn]

Georgia and North Carolina. They're really close and they make a huge difference in the Electoral College. Math reminder, you need 270 electoral votes to win. If Kamala Harris cannot win either of those two states, then her road to 270 gets very narrow very quickly. She would need to sweep Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in all likelihood to prevail or pull off an upset in Arizona.

[Michael Barbaro]

Which we will get to.

[Nate Cohn]

Which we will get to. But that would greatly narrow her path to victory. Conversely, if Donald Trump loses North Carolina and Georgia, his path to 270 looks really challenging at that point because he.

[Michael Barbaro]

Would have to sweep all the northern states.

[Nate Cohn]

And worse for him, those have been the states where he's tended to pull worse this cycle. So the outcome of these two states will not only tell us a lot about the overall picture of what's happening in the country, it will begin to greatly narrow the range of paths to victory for the two candidates.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay, let's talk about the next regional wave that will come after the South. And as a reminder, keep us on a kind of evening clock here.

[Nate Cohn]

So around 9 or 10pm, right around the time when it's becoming quite clear what's happened in Georgia and North Carolina will start to get our first clues about what's happening in the northern battleground states. That so called blue wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, the states that Biden won in 2020, states that Biden won in 2020, that Trump won in 2016. Unlike the Southern states, those states are not going to count their votes especially fast. We're going to be watching the count there in all likelihood all night.

[Michael Barbaro]

Let me just ask you why. Why is it going to take Midwestern states longer to count than than the South? Presumably they all have the same technology.

[Nate Cohn]

Well, they're not necessarily using the same technology, oddly enough, but there are Two broad reasons why the north will take longer. One is the different laws about mail ballots. In some northern states, like Pennsylvania, they can't begin to even open the mail ballots until the morning of the election.

[Michael Barbaro]

Huh.

[Nate Cohn]

In the Southern states, they can begin processing those ballots well before election Day. As a result, Florida can have all of its mail ballots processed and ready to go when the polls close. Pennsylvania will not.

[Michael Barbaro]

So it's as simple as in some of these Southern states. The minute that the voting ends in the evening, those mail in ballots, they're in the count. And in a place like Pennsylvania, they may still be opening the mail.

[Nate Cohn]

That's right. And this is where the technology thing oddly winds up being relevant, because there are actually huge differences in the technology available to different counties. And the way they open envelopes, for instance, that's done with a machine. Some machines can open 100,000 ballots an hour, some open 20,000.

[Michael Barbaro]

So what a country.

[Nate Cohn]

Each county is doing it differently. So that can create very different rates of counting mail ballots, not only by state, but even within different parts of a state.

[Michael Barbaro]

And how should we be thinking about who wins which of these northern states and what it's going to mean to our 272 win math?

[Nate Cohn]

As I just mentioned, if Trump wins North Carolina and Georgia, then Harris probably needs to sweep all three of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to prevail with a very narrow electoral College majority. In that same scenario, I'm guessing she's not winning these states and blowouts either. So it could take a very long time to have an outcome. If Harris has won North Carolina. North Carolina, then Harris can afford to lose in Michigan or Wisconsin, but not Pennsylvania, unless she makes up for it with Nevada later on. But, you know, then we have a lot of complicated scenarios where a lot of different doors are open.

[Michael Barbaro]

So just to close out the north, when, as best you can guess, will we have calls in these northern states?

[Nate Cohn]

So the answer varies a lot by state. They each have different procedures for how they count their votes. I will say Michigan and Wisconsin are better. Those states, I think a call in the early morning hours or early the next day, very realistic. The one with the most uncertainty is Pennsylvania, as I mentioned, this is the state where they can't start opening their ballots until the morning of the election. So all of this comes down to just how many of these envelopes they can open and how many of these ballots they can process. In 2020. They didn't get even close to counting all of them on election Day. And it took us a week before we had a call. I think there's a lot of reason to think it's going to be much better than 2020. I don't know, however, if that means they count 75% of the mail vote or 95% of the mail vote, and that will make a huge difference in terms of whether we will know the outcome in Pennsylvania on election night.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right. And of course, Pennsylvania is potentially the state we will be waiting on for an overall call in the race, especially if, as you previously told us, Donald Trump sweeps the South.

[Nate Cohn]

Yeah. And it's worth remembering that Harris is the candidate who leads the mail vote.

[Michael Barbaro]

So mail not as in men, women.

[Nate Cohn]

But as in absentee mail ballots. As a result, if they can't tabulate all the mail ballots on election night, then Trump will have more and more of a lead on election night and the result gets more mirage. The more of those ballots they get through, the less mirage it gets and the likelier we are to know the outcome.

[Michael Barbaro]

Got it all to say, compared with the south, the north is likely to be, in many scenarios, a bit messier and a lot longer.

[Nate Cohn]

That's right. I think that if someone's winning comfortably, we could know by the next morning. But if it's really close, then it could take days.

[Michael Barbaro]

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[Michael Barbaro]

Okay, Nate, we're back and we need to cover the next, and I suspect final phase of swing states tonight and when we're going to know things.

[Nate Cohn]

Yep, the final phase is the west, which we will be watching for weeks and weeks to come.

[Michael Barbaro]

Weeks?

[Nate Cohn]

Weeks. Unlike the northern states and the southern states, I think the count in Arizona, Nevada, California, and so on is going to be just as slow as it was four years ago.

[Michael Barbaro]

Hmm. I don't remember how slow it was for you.

[Nate Cohn]

Well, it took a week to call Arizona, Nevada. Biden won pretty decisively and they still couldn't call it until Saturday. And you may recall in the 2022 midterms that the House was not called for nine days as we waited on California. I think all of those timelines are still plausible in 2024.

[Michael Barbaro]

And I'm going to guess that has to do with some combination of the time difference there, as well as mail in ballot counting rules.

[Nate Cohn]

It's all about the procedures for counting these mail ballots. How many mail ballots will arrive after Election Day is one huge variable in Nevada and California. Whether they count any mail ballots that were returned at drop boxes on Election Day, also a big variable. That's one thing that keeps Arizona going. So the bottom line is, while we can imagine scenarios where states like Pennsylvania count all of their mail ballots, bipolar closing, it's not going to happen in Arizona. And almost all of the vote in Arizona is by mail. So we're just not going to have the full count. It's not going to happen.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay, well, walk us through how the western states fit into our 270 math, as well as our three scenarios based on what we've already established in the south and in the North.

[Nate Cohn]

So there is some good news here. If you could choose two battleground states not to know the result of on election night, you would choose Nevada and Arizona.

[Michael Barbaro]

Why?

[Nate Cohn]

Nevada's the smallest. It only fits into the electoral math under a pretty narrow set of circumstances, such as in particular, a scenario where Harris loses Pennsylvania, but has made up for it partly, but not completely, by winning either North Carolina and Georgia. Then she needs Nevada to make up for the 3 electoral vote gap between Pennsylvania and North Carolina and Georgia.

[Michael Barbaro]

Fascinating.

[Nate Cohn]

So that's a narrow scenario, but it's one where it really matters. Arizona is a larger battleground state, but it's not a very large battleground state. And of the seven battlegrounds, Arizona is the one state where a candidate seems to have a modestly clear lead, and that's Donald Trump, who's led the polls by three points. As a result, it doesn't loom as heavily in our thinking of either candidate's clearest path to 270 electoral votes in a closed election.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right.

[Nate Cohn]

But there are two other reasons why it's important that the west will take a long time to count its votes. One Reason is the House. The House promises to be very closely fought and there are a lot of contested congressional races in Washington, Oregon, Alaska, California.

[Michael Barbaro]

Non swing states.

[Nate Cohn]

Non swing states, but with lots of swing districts. So if the House is relatively close, we're not even going to be close to making a projection for overall House control until the mail ballots at west get counted. And again, that can be days or weeks. The second reason that it matters that the west takes so long to count is the national popular vote. California is going to be Harris largest prize in the Electoral College, and she'll win the popular vote there by millions of votes. Those votes are not going to be counted on election night. And so if the national vote is relatively close, let's say Harris is only going to win in the end by one point. Trump is going to lead in the national popular vote on election night because those western mail in ballots haven't been counted yet.

[Michael Barbaro]

And that, of course, would have real implications for his growing and false claims of election fraud. They would very likely feed into him potentially even claiming victory prematurely.

[Nate Cohn]

Absolutely. It would be used to cast doubt on the results in the battleground states if, hypothetically, Harris had actually won the battlegrounds while still trailing in the national popular vote. And then if Harris does ultimately take the lead in the popular vote, whether that's hours, days or weeks later, that will also be used as a sign that the Democrats were trying to shift it at the end. In the same way that in 2020, the slow count was used to sow doubts about the results in states like Pennsylvania.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right. In all these scenarios, there will be a kind of red mirage that would eventually turn slightly blue, and that could create an opportunity for some serious confusion.

[Nate Cohn]

That's right. National popular vote, you should expect a modest red mirage.

[Michael Barbaro]

I do have to say, and I say this from a comfortable position here on the East Coast. I don't hear any talk of a mirage here. I don't hear any talk of big delays. Well, I'm not saying we're better or worse than any other region of the country. I'm just saying, you know, I have.

[Nate Cohn]

To tell you that New York City did a terrible job counting the vote in 2020. And I have, and we kind of always do. Yeah, it's been pretty bad here. I don't know if that's the insult I would be throwing at our friends out West.

[Michael Barbaro]

Fine. I want to ask a different question about the chronology of the night. Let's assume for just a minute that there has been some level of systemic polling error, and it is Going to be a decisive win for either Trump or Harris. Perhaps some of these delays we're talking about then don't matter as much. And when do we expect to get a full race call if it's decisive? Are we talking before, just to use an example, the next day's daily comes out at 6am Wednesday morning. Yes.

[Nate Cohn]

In that scenario, I think that the count is fast enough for a clear victory to be called on election night. Like an Obama 2012 style victory where you win the key states by four or five points. If it's closer than that, of course, that could take a long time, obviously.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay.

[Nate Cohn]

But if there's a clear victory in the southern states or in the northern states, that we should know on election night.

[Michael Barbaro]

On behalf of people at home wondering at what point in the actually it's gonna be really close scenario, do you say to yourself, go to bed, there's no call? I mean, I remember walking around zombie like in 2020 because there wasn't a call on Tuesday, there wasn't a call on Wednesday, there wasn't a call on Thursday, there wasn't a call on Friday, it came Saturday morning. I was in a car driving on the highway. Luckily I had my microphone with you. But like, you know, we waited. We waited and it was genuinely a ride.

[Nate Cohn]

Pennsylvania is the key variable here and it just comes down to how many of these mail ballots they successfully process on election day. If they process all of them, we'll know that, I think on election night. And there may not be much of a wait. And you should stay up if they don't. And it comes down to Pennsylvania, which it probably will.

[Michael Barbaro]

Go to bed.

[Nate Cohn]

Go to bed.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay, you are about to go off. You're gonna walk out the studio, you're gonna set up systems and processes to count. You're gonna be consumed by this for the next, I don't know, 20 hours.

[Nate Cohn]

More than that.

[Michael Barbaro]

My true final question to you is, are you gonna make time for us tonight if we need you? Because the country, you know, the country needs the guide to guide when we get a result or don't get a result.

[Nate Cohn]

How early do you need me?

[Michael Barbaro]

I don't know. I suppose we're gonna try to tape around 3am I think 3:30 is probably the last minute we can record.

[Nate Cohn]

There should be a window in that range where we've gotten most of what we're gonna get on election night. And I can come away from my computer to talk to you.

[Michael Barbaro]

Please come.

[Nate Cohn]

I'll do my best.

[Michael Barbaro]

Your country needs you. The listeners need you. Meanwhile, thank you very much, Nate, as always, we really appreciate it.

[Nate Cohn]

Thanks for having me, Michael.

[Michael Barbaro]

Speaking of the election, we want to hear from you. Once the election is called and a winner is declared, record a voice memo on your phone and tell us a few things. Your name, where you live and how you feel about the outcome. Your immediate reaction, your hopes and fears for President elect Trump or Harris and how your life could change as a result of their victory. Keep it relatively short, less than two minutes, and send the file to the [e-mail] that's the [e-mail] with the subject line reaction. We'll be right back.

[Nate Cohn]

This podcast is supported by Chevron. The anchor offshore platform is utilizing breakthrough.

[Michael Barbaro]

Technology to enable Chevron to produce oil.

[Nate Cohn]

And natural gas in the US Gulf of Mexico at pressures up to 20,000 psi. A new industry benchmark.

[Michael Barbaro]

Anchor is part of Chevron's plan to.

[Nate Cohn]

Produce 300,000 net barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026 in the US Gulf of Mexico, home to some of.

[Michael Barbaro]

Their lowest carbon intensity producing operations.

[Nate Cohn]

That's energy in progress. Visit chevron.com anchor this podcast is supported by Comedy Central's the Daily show, this year's Emmy winner for outstanding talk series. Campaigning is finished and voting has ended.

[Michael Barbaro]

Yet some of you still haven't decl.

[Nate Cohn]

Join Jon Stewart every Monday and the news team all week as they rehash the ups, downs, ins and outs of the election fallout. They're helping America decide on what they'll indecide next. Comedy Central's the Daily show continuing Indecision 2024 coverage, new weeknights at 11 on Comedy Central and streaming next day on Paramount.

[Michael Barbaro]

Here's what else you need to Notre Day. So hello to Pennsylvania, a very special place.

[Nate Cohn]

Pennsylvania.

[Michael Barbaro]

I'm here to ask for your vote. I'm here to ask for your vote. On the final day of the campaign, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump barnstormed across Pennsylvania. From the very start of our campaign, this has not been about a fight that is against something. This is about a fight that is for something. During a series of rallies, Harris freedom. Her campaign against Trump as a battle between unity and division and between tyranny and freedom.

[Nate Cohn]

I say that I am not going to be a leader who thinks that people who disagree with me should be put in jail, that they are the enemy. I'll give them a seat at the.

[Michael Barbaro]

Table because that's what real leaders do and that's what strong leaders do during a set of competing rallies. Honestly, she's a disgrace. Trump described the stakes of today's election very differently. Over the past four years, Kamala has orchestrated the most egregious betrayal that any leader in American history has ever inflicted upon our people. He portrayed it as a choice between patriotism and radicalism and between unchecked immigration and a secure border. We will not be invaded.

[Nate Cohn]

We will not be occupied. We will not be overrun.

[Michael Barbaro]

We are an occupied country. Today's episode was produced by Olivia Natt, Eric Krupke and Jessica Chung, with help from Carlos Prieto, Alex Stern, Mary Wilson and Asta Chaturvedi. It was edited by M.J. davis Lynn, contains original music by Elishaba Etoup and Rowany Misto and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Manlian Ferg of Wonderly. That's it for the Daily I'm Michael Balbaro. See you tomorrow.

[Nate Cohn]

What if the limits of your imagination.

[Michael Barbaro]

Were just the beginning?

[Nate Cohn]

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