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A Sudden Escalation in Ukraine Before Trump Takes Office
00:26:36
President-elect Donald J. Trump has promised a radically different approach to foreign policy from that of the Biden administration. In Ukraine, he has pledged to end the war in a day. But just weeks before he’s set to take office, the war has taken an unexpected turn. Anton Troianovski, the Moscow bureau chief for The New York Times, discusses the conflict’s dangerous new phase.
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- [00:00]
Narrator
With Schwab Investing Themes, it's easy to invest in ideas you believe in, like online music and videos, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and more. Schwab's research process uncovers emerging trends. Then their technology curates relevant stocks into themes. Choose from over 40 themes. Buy all the stocks in a theme as is or customize to better fit your investing goals, all in a few clicks. Schwab Investing Themes is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation of any stock or investment strategy. Learn more@schwab.com ThematicinFind Investing.
- [00:36]
Sabrina Tavernisi
From the New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernisi, and this is the Daily President elect Donald Trump has promised a radically different approach to foreign policy from the Biden administration, perhaps nowhere more so than in Ukraine, where Trump has pledged to end the war in a day. But just weeks before he's set to take office, the war has taken an unexpected turn. Today. My colleague Anton Trinowski on the conflict's dangerous new phase. It's Monday, November 25th. So, Anton, we've seen this real ratcheting up in the war in Ukraine over the past week. Help us understand what's going on.
- [01:34]
Anton Trinowski
Well, we've seen a bunch of new developments that are really quite dangerous, quite escalatory. We have seen missiles flying across the border between Russia and Ukraine in a way we haven't seen before. We have seen the Biden administration taking steps that they have not been willing to take before. And we've seen a new kind of rhetoric from President Putin in Moscow. And what this all adds up to is that the war is becoming more dangerous, more volatile. And specifically, what's happening is that we're getting closer to this war in Ukraine turning into a broader war between Russia and the West.
- [02:24]
Sabrina Tavernisi
So, Anton, this is very striking because, you know, just a few months ago we were talking about the Russians digging into positions in eastern Ukraine, and it was this protracted trench warfare. How did we get from there to here?
- [02:40]
Anton Trinowski
The turning point was early August. The unthinkable for many Russians is now a reality. Their homeland invaded Ukraine, broke that stalemate by invading Russia.
- [02:56]
Sabrina Tavernisi
It's the first time there's been a.
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Narrator
Foreign incursion of Russia since World War II.
- [03:02]
Anton Trinowski
Ukrainian troops went into Russia's Kursk region on the border, captured about 400 square miles of territory, and delivered this huge embarrassment to Vladimir Putin, who, it turned out, couldn't even protect what was internationally recognized Russian territory. Ukraine is proving that it truly knows how to restore justice and is providing the exact pressure needed that incursion into Kursk was a big morale boost for Ukraine, but it came at a cost.
- [03:34]
Sabrina Tavernisi
Russians are making gains capturing partially destroyed villages, raising the Russian tricolor flag.
- [03:43]
Anton Trinowski
In order to do it, Ukraine had to thin out its troops in eastern Ukraine, where Russia was advancing. They just don't have the personnel to hold all this territory. And as a result, Russia was actually able to push forward in eastern Ukraine at a much higher clip than before.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
In other words, for the first time in a long time, the front line was actually moving, and it was moving to Russia's advantage.
- [04:12]
Anton Trinowski
Exactly. And then this fall, Vladimir Putin pulled out his own surprise. The Pentagon confirmed that there are North Korean troops now in Russia, especially in the region of Kursk, which is this bringing in North Korean troops. Reportedly, there's something like 10,000 troops from North Korea that are fighting or getting ready to fight on the Russian side.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
And that was a really remarkable moment. Right, because suddenly it's about more than just Russia and Ukraine. There's a third country involved.
- [04:48]
Anton Trinowski
Exactly. And think about North Korea, how important that country is strategically as a nuclear armed adversary of the United States, and what it shows about how close the strategic relationship between Russia and North Korea has become. That has sent shockwaves, really, around the world.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
Okay, so you've laid out this pretty major shift in the war. But of course, all of this was happening in the months leading up to the US Election, won, of course, by Donald Trump.
- [05:27]
Anton Trinowski
Exactly. And Donald Trump's victory in the election is going to have enormous repercussions for the war. Remember his campaign? He refused to say that he wanted Ukraine to win the war. He promised to end the war in 24 hours, which was widely seen as him being open to a deal that could essentially sell Ukraine out to Russia. He brought on JD Vance as his vice president, who has been extremely critical of American support for Ukraine. So you've had so many signals coming from the Trump camp that his presidency will be much tougher for Ukraine than the Biden presidency was.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
So Trump's election, in other words, was very bad news for the Ukrainians because the Americans, and Biden in particular, was their biggest ally. And he's gone.
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Anton Trinowski
Yes. So when Donald Trump won, President Zelensky in Ukraine swung into win over Donald Trump mode. And, you know, he was one of the first world leaders to have a phone call with him. He tweeted, congratulating Trump on impressive election victory. And so there's a hope in Ukraine that Trump will still want to support their fight, that supporting Ukraine will be kind of a way that Trump projects American strength globally. But still, I think there's a huge amount of concern among supporters of Ukraine everywhere that Trump will just see it as much less of a national interest for the US to allow Ukraine to keep fighting and somehow defeat Russia in this war.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
Right. Which by definition is good for Russia. So tell us how Putin and Russia are thinking about this. Trump win.
- [07:24]
Anton Trinowski
So to step back for a sec. Putin's fundamental bet throughout this war has been that at the end of the day, Russia cares more about Ukraine and is willing to sacrifice more to win in Ukraine than does the west, than do the United States. And so to Putin, Trump's victory shows that at the end of the day, many Americans don't care enough about Ukraine to continue sending tens of billions of dollars of weapons there and to be in a situation where Russia is threatening an escalation that could draw the US Into a direct war with the world's other nuclear superpower. At the same time, it also brings Putin closer to something he could call victory in Ukraine, because Putin's primary goal at this point is not to capture more territory. His main goal is some kind of deal that would allow him to end the war and say he won it.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
Okay. So basically, with Trump's victory, it really seemed like things were on a glide path to exactly the kind of outcome that Putin wanted.
- [08:39]
Anton Trinowski
Not quite, because for one thing, Donald Trump is not in power yet. And the Biden administration has been very clear on seeking to continue to support Ukraine. That became even more clear in the last couple weeks when President Biden made a really important shift in his own policy. For the first time, he allowed Ukraine to use American missiles to strike deep inside Russian territory. These missiles are called ATACMs. They have a range of 190 miles. Ukraine has been asking for months, if not longer to be able to use these missiles for those kinds of strikes inside Russia in order to disrupt Russia's ability to build up its forces, resupply its forces and wage this war. The Biden administration has resisted that because they feared that that would be the kind of thing that could really push Putin to escalate the war in a new way. But then Putin brought in those North Korean troops that we talked about. And that apparently, as our colleagues in Washington have reported, is what pushed President Biden to change course and allow Ukraine to use those American missiles for strikes inside Russia.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
And how soon does Ukraine make use of these long range rockets?
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Anton Trinowski
Just about immediately. Tonight, anxious hours after Ukraine fired American made long range missiles called ATACMs last Tuesday, they fired these ATACMS missiles and hit an ammunition depot in the Bransk region of southwestern Russia. And then on Wednesday Ukraine fired Storm Shadow cruise missiles, which are these British manufactured long range missiles, into the Kursk region. Neither of those as far as we know did massive damage, but the symbolism was enormous. For the first time, Ukraine was firing Western provided missiles deep into Russian territory, leaving everyone asking what does Putin do now?
- [11:08]
Sabrina Tavernisi
We'll be right back.
- [11:14]
Narrator
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Sabrina Tavernisi
So you've set up this very high stakes moment for Putin. The US has crossed his red line, allowing the use of these missiles into Russia. They're kind of throwing down the glove, if you will. What does Putin do?
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Anton Trinowski
The first thing we see is early in the week, less than two days after the news comes out that President Biden is going to allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with those American made missiles. Putin approves Russia's revised nuclear doctrine.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
What does that mean?
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Anton Trinowski
So it sounds bureaucratic, but it's actually pretty serious. The nuclear doctrine defines how and when Russia would consider using its nuclear weapons. And remember, Russia has a massive stockpile of nuclear weapons. So Putin revises this doctrine to lower the threshold at which Russia would consider using nuclear weapons. And not just that, he also updates it to say that an attack from a non nuclear state, if backed by a nuclear power, will be treated as a joint attack on Russia, a looser.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
Trigger, so to speak. And specifically it relates to Ukraine because Ukraine, not a nuclear power, but the United States is a nuclear power.
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Anton Trinowski
Exactly. Putin has this enormous nuclear arsenal, but he hasn't been able to figure out how to use it effectively as a deterrent against the us and so that's what this new doctrine is about. Finding a new way basically to scare Americans. And it seems that it did in a way. Last Wednesday, the US Embassy in Kyiv issued this urgent warning saying that Russia might launch a significant air attack and closed its embassy and told employees to shelter in place, which was a really rare move. Obviously, Kyiv has been attacked many, many times during the course of the last almost three years. And for much of that time, the embassy has been operating. So closing the embassy was another signal that things were getting even more dangerous.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
So what happens? Was there an attack?
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Anton Trinowski
So on Thursday, there was. Russia raised the stakes in the war against Ukraine by firing an experimental ballistic missile. And it's the first of its kind to be used in this conflict. And Russia does something it hasn't done since the start of the war, which is to use a new missile, something similar to the kind that's used to deliver strategic nuclear weapons. It has a range of 3,000 miles. That means it's a weapon that could be capable of reaching targets across Europe. We're talking about something that would be used for a large scale nuclear attack. And it uses this missile to strike in a Ukrainian city, Dnipro. This is a kind of missile that releases multiple warheads. So you see in videos of this attack these multiple glowing orbs kind of dropping one after the other. It's the kind of missile developed to do really massive damage. To be clear, this particular missile didn't have nuclear warheads in it. But think about the message that that's sending. And on top of all that, these warheads are designed to attack at hypersonic speeds, meaning multiple times the speed of sound.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
Interesting, huh? So air defenses don't work against them.
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Anton Trinowski
Exactly. And so it was all about sending this signal that Russia was ready to respond and ready to escalate further.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
So Putin keeps trying to get the west to listen, to pay attention.
- [16:14]
Anton Trinowski
Absolutely. And he doesn't just launch that missile. He then gives a speech, a televised speech to the nation of the kind he delivers very rarely. He's sitting in what looks like the same wood paneled office as where he was when he launched the invasion in February 2022. He looked pretty tired, pretty weary, aggrieved. And he says, we consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allowed their weap to be used against our facilities.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
In other words, a direct reference to what happened with Biden allowing the use of the attacks.
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Anton Trinowski
Exactly. Last week.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
And so it sounds like what he's saying here is that he would be willing to attack the U.S. yeah.
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Anton Trinowski
You know, it's the kind of threat he's made throughout this war, kind of vaguely, but this is the most explicit we've heard him say this. And toward the end of the speech, he lays that out and then comes back with yet another threat. He says, I would like to emphasize once again that it was not Russia, but the United States that destroyed the international security system. And by continuing to fight and cling to its hegemony, they are pushing the whole world into a global conflict. We have always preferred and are ready now to resolve all disputes by peaceful means, but we are also ready for any turn of events. If anyone still doubts this, make no mistake, there will always be a response.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
So this is pretty remarkable and seems pretty frightening. What did you make of it, Anton? I mean, you've been following Putin for a long time.
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Anton Trinowski
Yeah. I mean, Putin has been making threats toward the west, including with references, veiled references to his nuclear arsenal, since day one of the invasion. But what makes this situation, I think, particularly concerning is the specificity of it. You know, Putin's previous threats have been quite vague. And so that's the concerning thing here.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
So what does all of this mean for the possibility of an end to the war, of a settlement like we've been talking about?
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Anton Trinowski
Well, it's definitely a strange moment because people have been talking more seriously about the potential for a settlement and how that would look than really at any point since the early months of the war. And so as that's happening, you know, you have Putin going essentially all in on this escalatory threat that, if he continues to make good on it, would clearly make it harder for Donald Trump to actually engage in some kind of negotiations with Putin. You know, think about, obviously, God forbid, if there were to be a direct Russian attack on any kind of American facility, how could Donald Trump at that point, do something that would make it look like he is doing Putin's bidding in Ukraine?
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Sabrina Tavernisi
Right. But I guess big picture here, Putin does want the war to be over, and he seems to be in a pretty good position to achieve. Achieve that.
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Anton Trinowski
Yes, he does. But there's still a few weeks to go before Trump comes in and starts trying to end this. And so in the meantime, there's this pretty frantic, incredibly bloody effort by both sides, by both Russia and Ukraine, to try to grab as much territory or hold on to as much territory as possible before potential negotiations begin. So what you're seeing, for one thing, is Putin pushing really hard to get the Ukrainian military out of Kursk. And that, of course, is also where Ukraine is using those new American and British missiles to try to slow the Russian counteroffensive there. And then you've also got Russia really pushing hard in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, trying to grab as much territory as they can, despite those casualty rates of a thousand people a day or more that Russia is losing. So there's definitely a lot of jockeying happening ahead of the expectation that when Trump comes to power, he'll at least try to create the conditions for some kind of settlement.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
Okay, so fundamentally, we are now likely looking at the beginning of the end of this war with Putin as the winner.
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Anton Trinowski
Well, he's still got to get a deal, and ultimately, he'll still need to sit down at some sort of negotiating table to get that. He's been pretty explicit about what he wants. He's made clear that he will not give up territory, the territory that Russia has captured, that's for sure. But what Putin clearly cares more about than territory is the political aspect and the geopolitical aspect of some kind of agreement. So most important is that Ukraine will never join NATO. And then on the other end, of course, Ukraine clearly is going to have a say in this as well. For Ukraine, what's become clear is that for them also, territory is not the most important thing. You know, it does look like there's more and more acceptance that in order to bring this war to a close, Ukraine will have to accept Russian occupation of part of its lands. So what Ukraine cares about the most is what are referred to as security guarantees. How will Ukraine feel assured that Russia won't just reconstitute its forces and attack again a few years from now? So then the question is going to become, how can Ukraine get security guarantees without being part of the NATO alliance? Will countries actually sign up for some kind of agreement in which they'll be treaty bound to come to Ukraine's defense if Russia attacks again?
- [23:17]
Sabrina Tavernisi
Right. If there's anything we've learned over the past few weeks, it's just how tenuous that Western support can be.
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Anton Trinowski
Yeah, definitely. You know, Russia and Ukraine actually did sit down at the negotiating table together in the first few weeks of the war. And one of the reasons we've reported that that negotiation fell apart back in the spring of 2022 is that they couldn't actually figure out a mechanism for those security guarantees for Ukraine that would work.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
Interesting.
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Anton Trinowski
How do you make Ukraine feel reasonably safe from a new Russian attack? That was never solved back then, and it's clearly going to be the biggest.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
Challenge now, and that's a really hard problem to solve. The west is tired and it clearly does not seem very inclined to come to the aid of Ukraine, this country that is the obsession of this very tenacious and very dangerous leader, Putin. So at the end of the day, Anton, is Putin getting away with it?
- [24:23]
Anton Trinowski
Well, let's remember first of all that both the west and Putin have been surprised repeatedly during this war by Ukraine's tenacity and Ukraine's will to fight. We have not seen much sign at this point, even though Ukrainian soldiers are clearly very tired and Ukraine is struggling to get enough men on the battlefield. But still we're not seeing that Ukraine is actually ready to stop fighting. And that means you could even imagine a scenario where even if Trump tries to force some kind of peace deal, Ukraine might try to continue to fight. But big picture, Sabrina, you raise an important point. Putin has been waging the biggest war of aggression that Europe has seen since World War II. It's a war that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives in terms of killed and injured soldiers, and not to mention the civilians that have died in Ukraine. But despite all the Western sanctions and the tremendous amounts of weaponry that Ukraine has received from the West, Putin is still going. Domestically, he's as powerful as he's ever been. And globally, he may be a pariah in the west, but outside the West, Russia continues to have a lot of influence. So as we approach the three year mark of this war, it is time, I think, for serious questions about what the west has and hasn't been able to accomplish in supporting Ukraine. The west has been able to keep Ukraine in the fight, but it has not been able to stop Putin.
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Sabrina Tavernisi
Anton, thank you.
- [26:19]
Anton Trinowski
Thank you, Sabrina.
- [26:30]
Sabrina Tavernisi
We'll be right back.
- [26:34]
Narrator
With Schwab Investing Themes. It's easy to invest in ideas you believe in, like online music and videos, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and more. Schwab's research process uncovers emerging trends. Then their technology curates relevant stocks into themes. Choose from over 40 themes, buy all the stocks in a theme as is or customize to better fit your investing goals. All in a few clicks. Schwab Investing Themes is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation of any stock or investment strategy. Learn more@schwab.com ThematicInvesting what does beauty have.
- [27:10]
Sabrina Tavernisi
To do with sports or advanced technology or the economy? I am Isabella Rossellini, and in each episode of this Is Not a Beauty Podcast, I uncover stories that explain beauty's fascinating and often hidden role in modern life. Listen to this Is Not a Beauty Podcast now on your favorite podcast platform, brought to you by L'Oreal Group. Here's what else you should know Today, President elect Donald Trump has picked Scott Besant to serve as treasury secretary. Besant is a billionaire hedge fund manager who once supported Democrats but now endorses the Republican agenda of cutting taxes, rolling back federal regulations and enacting the sweeping tariffs that Trump has promised. He'll also oversee trade talks with China. The selection came after weeks of debate by Trump and his advisers about who should win the most prominent economic job in his administration. Today's episode was produced by Rob Zipko, Asta Chaturvedi, Michael Simon Johnson and Will Read. It was edited by Maria Byrne and Patricia Willings with help from Michael Benoit, contains original music by Marian Lozano and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Runberg and Ben Landsver of Wonderly. That's it for the Daily I'm Sabrina Tavernisi. See you tomorrow.
- [29:05]
Narrator
At Schwab, how you invest is your choice, not theirs. That's why when it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices. You can invest and trade on your own, plus get advice and more comprehensive wealth solutions to help meet your unique needs. With award winning service, low costs and transparent advice, you can manage your wealth your way at Schwab. Visit schwab.com to learn more.