The Daily: A Sudden Escalation in Ukraine Before Trump Takes Office

Episode Release Date: November 25, 2024
Hosts: Michael Barbaro and Sabrina Tavernise
Host for This Episode: Sabrina Tavernise
Guest: Anton Trinowski, Senior Foreign Affairs Correspondent

1. Introduction

In this episode of The Daily, hosted by Sabrina Tavernise, Anton Trinowski delves into the recent dramatic developments in the Ukraine conflict just weeks before Donald Trump is set to take office as President of the United States. The discussion highlights a significant escalation in the war, the implications of Trump's upcoming presidency on foreign policy, and the evolving strategies of both Russia and Ukraine.

2. Recent Escalations in the Ukraine Conflict

Key Developments:

• Missile Crossings: A surge in missile activity across the Russia-Ukraine border has heightened tensions. (02:00)

  Anton Trinowski: "We have seen missiles flying across the border between Russia and Ukraine in a way we haven't seen before."

• Shifting Frontlines: The front lines have moved in favor of Russia for the first time in months, reversing previous stalemates in eastern Ukraine.

• North Korean Involvement: Russia has reportedly deployed around 10,000 North Korean troops to support its military efforts in the Kursk region, marking the first foreign incursion of Russia since World War II. (04:11)

  Anton Trinowski: "North Korea... is fighting or getting ready to fight on the Russian side."

3. Trump's Election and Its Implications

Trump’s Foreign Policy Stance:

• Promises Made: Trump has committed to ending the war in Ukraine within 24 hours, suggesting a willingness to negotiate a deal that could potentially cede Ukrainian territories to Russia. (05:16)

  Sabrina Tavernise: "Trump promised to end the war in a day."

• Vice Presidential Pick: JD Vance, known for his critical stance on American support for Ukraine, has been chosen as Trump's running mate. (05:26)

Implications for Ukraine:

• Ukrainian Optimism: President Zelensky has expressed hope that Trump's administration will continue to support Ukraine as a means to project American strength globally. (06:21)

• Concerns: There is significant anxiety among Ukrainian supporters that the new administration may reduce or halt military support, potentially favoring Russian interests. (07:16)

4. Putin's Revised Nuclear Doctrine

Lowering the Threshold for Nuclear Use:

• In response to the Biden administration permitting Ukraine to use American long-range missiles within Russian territory, Putin has revised Russia's nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for nuclear weapon use. (12:20)

  Anton Trinowski: "Putin revises this doctrine to lower the threshold at which Russia would consider using nuclear weapons."

Implications:

• Global Security Risks: The new doctrine classifies attacks from non-nuclear states, backed by nuclear powers, as joint attacks on Russia, effectively tying US nuclear status to Ukraine’s defense.

• US Embassy Response: Following the doctrine change, the US Embassy in Kyiv issued warnings of potential significant air attacks, leading to its temporary closure. (14:29)

5. Ukraine's Use of Long-Range Missiles

Deployment of ATACMs and Storm Shadow Missiles:

• ATACMs: Ukraine began using American-made ATACMs (range of 190 miles) to strike deep into Russian territory, targeting strategic sites like ammunition depots in the Bransk region. (10:06)

• Storm Shadow Missiles: The UK-provided Storm Shadow cruise missiles were also employed to hit targets in the Kursk region. While these strikes did not cause massive damage, their strategic symbolism was significant. (10:10)

  Anton Trinowski: "These were symbols... for the first time, Ukraine was firing Western provided missiles deep into Russian territory."

6. Potential for Negotiations and Settlement

Challenges Ahead:

• Putin’s Goals: Beyond territorial gains, Putin seeks security guarantees that prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, aiming for a geopolitical reshaping favorable to Russia. (21:37)

• Ukraine’s Demands: Ukraine requires robust security assurances to prevent future Russian aggression without NATO membership, a complex issue that remains unresolved. (22:16)

• Trump’s Role: With limited time before Trump's inauguration, there is urgency in shaping potential negotiations, but heightened tensions and recent escalations complicate prospects for a peaceful settlement. (19:13)

7. Western Support and Its Tenuousness

Erosion of Western Commitment:

• Shifting US Policy: The Biden administration's recent decision to allow Ukraine to use American missiles within Russia marks a significant policy shift aimed at slowing Russian advances but also risks further escalation. (08:38)

• Exhaustion and Reluctance: The West shows signs of fatigue and diminishing enthusiasm for prolonged support, raising concerns about the sustainability of aid to Ukraine. (23:22)

  Anton Trinowski: "The west has been able to keep Ukraine in the fight, but it has not been able to stop Putin."

8. Conclusion

As the international community anticipates Donald Trump’s transition to the White House, the Ukraine conflict has entered a volatile phase marked by Russian territorial advances, North Korean military involvement, and heightened nuclear rhetoric. While Ukraine demonstrates resilience and tactical innovation with long-range missile strikes, the prospect of a negotiated settlement remains uncertain amidst shifting political landscapes and waning Western support. Anton Trinowski underscores the complexities ahead, highlighting that despite significant efforts, Putin maintains substantial influence both domestically and globally, posing enduring challenges to resolving the war.

Anton Trinowski: "As we approach the three year mark of this war, it is time, I think, for serious questions about what the west has and hasn't been able to accomplish in supporting Ukraine."

Notable Quotes:

• (04:11) Anton Trinowski: "North Korea... is fighting or getting ready to fight on the Russian side."
• (05:16) Sabrina Tavernise: "Trump promised to end the war in a day."
• (12:20) Anton Trinowski: "Putin revises this doctrine to lower the threshold at which Russia would consider using nuclear weapons."
• (21:37) Anton Trinowski: "The west has been able to keep Ukraine in the fight, but it has not been able to stop Putin."

Final Thoughts: This episode of The Daily presents a comprehensive analysis of the escalating tensions in Ukraine, the geopolitical maneuvers by Russia, and the uncertain future under Trump's impending presidency. Listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay between military actions, political strategies, and international relations shaping the current conflict.