Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Daily – "Americans to Trump: You’ve Gone Too Far"

Host: Michael Barbaro
Guest: Nate Cohn, New York Times Pollster
Release Date: April 28, 2025

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Introduction

In this compelling episode of The Daily, host Michael Barbaro engages in a critical discussion with Nate Cohn, a renowned pollster from The New York Times. They explore the findings of a new nationwide poll assessing American sentiment towards President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office. The conversation delves into various aspects of Trump's policies, public approval ratings, and the broader implications for American politics.

Overview of Poll Findings

Nate Cohn begins by presenting the overarching results of the poll, emphasizing a predominantly negative reception of Trump’s early presidency. “We found that the public has a lot of reservations about Donald Trump's first hundred days,” Cohn states ([02:57]). This sets the stage for a detailed exploration of specific policy areas and public opinions.

Approval Ratings

A significant highlight of the poll is Trump's approval rating. “42% of voters say they approve of Donald Trump's performance as president, compared to 54% who disapprove,” Cohn reveals ([03:24]). Barbaro notes the gravity of these numbers, explaining, “In political journalism, we call this being underwater,” pointing out that more Americans disapprove of Trump’s performance than approve, a stark contrast to his post-election support.

Immigration Policy

Immigration emerges as a critical area of discussion. Trump’s tough stance on immigration was a cornerstone of his campaign, aiming to appeal to voters desiring stronger border security. However, the poll indicates a significant backlash. “A majority of voters say he's going too far,” Cohn explains ([05:56]). The conversation references the high-profile deportation case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, where only 32% approved of Trump’s handling ([06:07]). This case exemplifies the broader public disapproval of Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement, undermining what was initially a strong base of support.

Economic Policy

The economy, another pillar of Trump's agenda, also faces scrutiny. “Already, a majority of voters say the president's actions have made the economy worse,” Cohn reports ([08:15]). This perception contradicts Trump's promises to bolster economic prosperity, leading voters to believe his policies are detrimental both in the short and long term. The discussion highlights that Trump’s economic measures, including tariffs and government cuts, are largely viewed negatively, with voters feeling the pinch in their own finances.

Expansion of Executive Authority

Trump’s use of executive power is another focal point of the poll. “54% think that he's going beyond the powers that are available to him as president,” Cohn states ([09:07]). Additionally, “35% of people already, in less than 100 days, perceived the president as attempting to completely tear down the system,” indicating growing concern over Trump’s intentions to reshape the political and economic framework of the country ([09:56]). This reflects a broader unease about the concentration of power in the executive branch and potential threats to democratic norms.

Impact on Young Voters

A particularly striking finding is the substantial disapproval among young voters. “69% disapproved of the president's performance, compared to 26% who approved,” Cohn highlights ([11:24]). This marks a significant shift from previous polls, where young voters were more divided. The erosion of support among younger demographics suggests that Trump's policies and approach may be alienating a crucial segment of the electorate, potentially impacting future elections.

Political Consequences

The implications of these poll results extend beyond public opinion, affecting the political landscape. Cohn discusses how negative perceptions of Trump could influence congressional dynamics. “There are greater incentives for moderate Republicans from districts that voted for Kamala Harris or only narrowly voted for Donald Trump to defy the president in their pursuit of reelection,” he explains ([20:27]). This could lead to increased resistance within the Republican Party, making it difficult for Trump to push his agenda through a potentially fracturing caucus.

Comparison to Authoritarian Regimes

The conversation draws comparisons between Trump’s actions and those of authoritarian leaders globally. However, Cohn emphasizes that unlike leaders in countries like Hungary or Turkey, Trump faces significant public opposition in the United States. “The public's response is not conducive to [authoritarian] taking hold in a way that permanently affects the trajectory of the United States without a large backlash,” he asserts ([24:00]). This underscores the resilience of American democratic values and institutions in countering attempts to concentrate power.

Future Implications

Looking ahead, Cohn warns of the potential long-term consequences if Trump continues on his current path. “If he continues with this pattern of conduct, he risks additional damage over the remaining years of his term,” Cohn cautions ([25:52]). The poll indicates that without course correction, Trump's approval ratings could further decline, weakening his influence and effectiveness as president. Additionally, entrenched public opposition could lead to greater institutional resistance and challenges in sustaining his policy initiatives.

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a sobering analysis of Trump’s first 100 days, highlighting significant public disapproval across key policy areas. While Trump maintains support within his core base, the broader electorate’s negative response raises concerns about his ability to govern effectively and maintain political cohesion within the Republican Party. The findings suggest that Trump’s aggressive policies and expansion of executive power may be more divisive than initially anticipated, potentially shaping the trajectory of his presidency and American politics in profound ways.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Nate Cohn ([02:57]): “We found that the public has a lot of reservations about Donald Trump’s first hundred days.”

• Nate Cohn ([03:24]): “42% of voters say they approve of Donald Trump’s performance as president, compared to 54% who disapprove.”

• Nate Cohn ([05:56]): “A majority of voters say he's going too far.”

• Nate Cohn ([06:07]): “Only 32% of voters approve of his handling of the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case.”

• Nate Cohn ([08:15]): “Already, a majority of voters say the president's actions have made the economy worse.”

• Nate Cohn ([09:07]): “54% think that he's going beyond the powers that are available to him as president.”

• Nate Cohn ([09:56]): “35% of people already perceive the president as attempting to completely tear down the system.”

• Nate Cohn ([11:24]): “69% disapproved [of Trump’s performance], compared to 26% who approved.”

• Nate Cohn ([20:27]): “There are greater incentives for moderate Republicans from districts that voted for Kamala Harris or only narrowly voted for Donald Trump to defy the president in their pursuit of reelection.”

• Nate Cohn ([24:00]): “The public's response is not conducive to [authoritarian] taking hold in a way that permanently affects the trajectory of the United States without a large backlash.”

• Nate Cohn ([25:52]): “If he continues with this pattern of conduct, he risks additional damage over the remaining years of his term.”

This detailed summary encapsulates the critical insights from The Daily’s episode, providing a comprehensive overview of the public’s perception of Trump’s early presidency and the potential ramifications for the future of American politics.

Transcript

[Podcast Host]

This podcast is supported by Andor Season 2. Critics everywhere hailed the first season of Andor as the best Star wars series yet. The Wrap called it thrilling and exciting and the Verge said it's truly phenomenal storytelling. The Emmy nominated series stars Diego Luna as Cassian Andor watch as he embarks on a path from rebel to Hero Andor Season 2 is now streaming only on Disney.

[Nate Cohn]

My name is Emily Haroldson and I.

[Emily Haroldson]

Voted for Donald J. Trump.

[Nate Cohn]

My name is Daryl Davis. I'm a never Trump Republican.

[Michael Balvaro]

I voted for Kamala Harris.

[Nate Cohn]

I voted for Kamala Harris. I voted for Trump. I voted for Trump.

[Michael Balvaro]

From the New York Times, I'm Michael Balvaro. This is the Daily I think the.

[Nate Cohn]

First hundred days has been great. I just wish he had more backing. His first hundred days have been disastrous, probably the worst hundred days of any president in history.

[Michael Balvaro]

The question hovering over President Trump's first 100 days in office is whether his extraordinarily aggressive approach to everything from tariffs to deportations is exactly what most Americans wanted.

[Nate Cohn]

I can see in the short term things seem a little crazy, but I think change is good. The best thing he's done is closed the border. Doge is like the best thing he could have done.

[Michael Balvaro]

Or I don't love all the tariff stuff. You know, it's been harmful to people's.

[Nate Cohn]

Pocketbooks when it comes to immigration. You did it, but damn how you did it though, that's the part that hurts.

[Michael Balvaro]

If he's simply gone too far, I feel that he's already done more harm in these first hundred days than he did in the four years he was.

[Nate Cohn]

In office in his first term.

[Michael Balvaro]

Today, in a major new nationwide poll, voters tell the Times exactly how they feel about Trump's agenda so far. My colleague Nate Cohn is our guest. It's Monday, April 28th. Nate Michael, welcome back.

[Nate Cohn]

Thanks for having me.

[Michael Balvaro]

You kind of went into a post election hibernation of sorts and now you have awakened.

[Nate Cohn]

I'm sort of dozing in and out. Haven't gotten all the way, haven't gotten my coffee yet.

[Michael Balvaro]

Thanks for making time for us. This is a pretty big occasion for you in the world of New York Times polling. You're now out with our first poll since the election timed to President Trump's first hundred days in office. You're basically taking the country's temperature on most of the major facets of what he has done so far in the first three months. So high level, what did you find about how Americans are feeling about this presidency? 100 days in high level.

[Nate Cohn]

We found that the public has a lot of reservations about Donald Trump's first hundred days. In fact, I think it's pretty hard to find a single number that's good for Donald Trump in this poll. We can debate about how bad some of the numbers are, but almost every question that we asked voters offered, to varying degrees, a negative reaction to the way he's handled his job, whether overall or on the issues.

[Michael Balvaro]

And what is that top line, not good number that we should hold in our heads?

[Nate Cohn]

The simple number to hold in your head is that 42% of voters say they approve of Donald Trump's performance as president, compared to 54% who disapprove.

[Michael Balvaro]

In political journalism, we call this being underwater. More people disapprove of you than approve of you. It's not a good thing. And it comes so soon after Trump won the presidency with what I remember was a number meaningfully higher than 42%.

[Nate Cohn]

Yeah, that's right. And when this represents a pretty marked decline from where he was standing in our polling taken in January, before Trump actually entered office, when he was still riding high in his post election honeymoon, historically, this now gives him the lowest approval rating of anyone at this stage of his term, with the possible exception it's close of himself eight years ago. And of course, Donald Trump did go on to lose four years later. So this is not a. He's not in great company.

[Michael Balvaro]

So given all that, how are you thinking about this number at this moment, given everything that has happened in these first hundred days?

[Nate Cohn]

Well, Donald Trump, there's almost always two ways to look at his numbers. On the one hand, they're usually pretty bad. They're under 50%. They're usually among the worst for any president. And on the other hand, they're not catastrophically bad. His base is usually still on his side. There's a reason why he only narrowly lost in 2020 and then actually won in 2024. And so these are two ways that we can always look at Donald Trump and he finds himself right back where he sort of has usually been in his career. I think that this go around, I would be inclined to take the more pessimistic interpretation to dwell on, on how weak he is so soon after his victory. And given the political opportunities that he has, rather than focus on the glass half full case.

[Michael Balvaro]

Why, why are you taking the pessimistic view?

[Nate Cohn]

So one reason is that Donald Trump entered this term with real political opportunities. He had a chance to push a bold agenda that had the support of the public and I think immigration is the best example here. A majority of voters, even in this poll, support deporting undocumented immigrants. That's what Trump was elected to do. And yet, despite that, voters disapprove of his handling of immigration, and they say he's gone too far in immigration enforcement. So he has this opportunity, this term, to be on a much stronger political footing than he is in the past, and he has already forfeited it with the excesses of his policy on immigration. We can talk about the details of that.

[Michael Balvaro]

Yeah, well, let's do that. Let's talk about some of the details of where opportunity has been replaced by, as you just. Yeah, used this word, excess.

[Nate Cohn]

So 40% approve of his handling of immigration, even though this is sort of the issue that if there was anything he ought to be popular on, given the cards that he had in his hand when he was elected, this is it.

[Michael Balvaro]

And exactly why it sounds like it's going to be about him maybe taking it too far.

[Nate Cohn]

That's exactly right. In fact, we asked voters whether they thought Trump's immigration policy is going too far or is about right or doesn't go far enough. And a majority of voters say he's going too far. And one example in the poll is his handling of the Kilmar Abrego Garcia case, the man who was deported mistakenly to a prison in el Salvador. Only 32% of voters approve of his handling of the case, 52% disapprove. And it's cases like Garcia and there are other cases out there that have been in the news over the last month that are dragging down his overall approval rating on immigration. If voters were instead focused on the huge declines in apprehensions at the border or efforts to deport people who on stronger legal footing, I would guess that a majority of voters would approve of his handling of immigration. But because we're focused on this area where he's acting in defiance of the courts, and also, clearly, in our polls view, in defiance of public opinion, he has undermined what ought to be a relatively strong position on what has been his strongest issue.

[Michael Balvaro]

So even on an issue that helped Trump win the election, immigration was. What you're seeing in this poll is that there are lines voters don't want him to cross, and in this case, they think he has crossed it. And in the process, he's turned what could be majority support for his approach to immigration into, instead, disapproval.

[Nate Cohn]

That's right. If there's any theme from the poll, it's Trump going too far. We asked this exact question On a number of issues. His tariffs, cuts to government employment, his changes in general to the political economic system. On all of the questions, an outright majority of voters say the president is going too far.

[Michael Balvaro]

Let's talk about those one at a time because they seem worthy of examination. Let's, for example, talk through Doge, and let's talk about his handling of the economy.

[Nate Cohn]

Doge is probably the issue where Trump is maybe holding up the best. This is, of course, relative. 52% of voters say they're going too far with their cuts, the federal workforce. So this is his best issue that we're asking about. But even on this issue, he's underwater.

[Michael Balvaro]

Okay, what about the economy?

[Nate Cohn]

Not good for the president either. Already, a majority of voters say the president's actions have made the economy worse. They say the economy's gotten worse over the last year. And one of the president's big strengths in the 2024 campaign, the idea that his policies were going to help you personally has been reversed. Voters now think his policies are hurting them and will continue to hurt them over the next four years. And then on the other sort of broader questions I was just talking about, like, whether he's gone too far, whether people approve of Trump, whether they support the tariffs themselves and all of those issues. Voters overwhelmingly disapprove of the president's tariffs, think he's going too far, and disapprove of his handling of the economy. There are no bright spots there for him.

[Michael Balvaro]

Nate, what did the poll find about what I might describe as the universe of ways in which the president has expanded executive authority and. And used it to pursue, in some cases, punish his enemies and ideological opponents.

[Nate Cohn]

So we asked whether voters thought Trump was exceeding the powers available to him as president. And a majority of voters, 54%, think that he's going beyond the powers that are available to him as president. And only 43% think he's acting within his legal rights. One of my favorite questions in the poll, we asked whether people thought Donald Trump was making major changes, minor changes to the economic political system, or trying to just tear down the system altogether. And when we asked this question last year, we were asking what kind of change people want. Do you want major change, minor change, or do you want to tear down the system? And most people wanted major changes, but very few people wanted to tear the system down completely. And we found that 35% of people already, in less than 100 days, perceived the president as attempting to completely tear down the system higher than the number.

[Michael Balvaro]

That wanted it a year ago.

[Nate Cohn]

Much Higher than the number that wanted a year ago.

[Michael Balvaro]

Fascinating.

[Nate Cohn]

And they see those changes as bad. We just straight up asked, I mean, do you think these changes are good or bad? A majority said they were bad. And a majority also said that the president is going too far in trying to change the political and economic system in the country. I should also note we're only at the beginning of Trump's term, and we asked a variety of questions about places where Trump might go in the future, like defying the Supreme Court or attempting to deport U.S. citizens to El Salvador, as he suggested he might. And on those issues, there's essentially zero public support for pursuing those more extreme measures that would defy the most fundamental norms of due process and the separation of powers.

[Michael Balvaro]

Right. And as we talked about a lot on the show, the president has openly defied our norms around separation of powers by shutting down agencies, for example, that have been congressionally funded and openly talking about, in some cases, doing the act of ignoring judicial rulings. So what this all seems to suggest is that the voters who put Trump in the White House wanted major change, that phrase you used and the poll found a year ago. And what they got was a president who in many cases is instead tearing things down. And the gap between that desire and reality seems to account for the big finding of this poll, which is they don't like it.

[Nate Cohn]

I think that's a great summary, Michael. And, you know, I do think it's worth noting that most Trump supporters remain on his side. Overwhelming majority of people who voted for Trump last November still approve of his performance today. In fact, most strongly approve his performance. But those voters that put him over the top, the kinds of voters who didn't vote for him in 2020 or 2016, but then gave him a victory in the popular vote, those voters appealed away from him. And in particular, one of the groups that swung most to him in the last election, young voters seemed to have snapped back in this poll. It's only one poll when we're talking about a small subsample, and it's one poll. I need to put this caveat out there that maybe it's just small sample, but young voters in this poll overwhelmingly disapproved of the president's performance. 69% disapproved, compared to 26% who approved well. And last November, young voters were fairly closely contested, with Kamala Harris only winning a bare majority. This kind of big lopsided 69 to 26 margin against the president and young voters, we didn't find anything like this in any of our polls over the last few years.

[Michael Balvaro]

What do you make of it?

[Nate Cohn]

Well, again, there's a big group of voters who were deeply dissatisfied by the Biden administration and were frankly exhausted with Democratic governance, the excesses of woke and the pandemic response and rising costs and so on. And they gave Donald Trump a chance.

[Michael Balvaro]

Right.

[Nate Cohn]

And many of them are being reminded of the reasons they didn't like Trump in the first place. And others may outright be repelled by the excesses of his conduct even when they were sympathetic to his aims.

[Michael Balvaro]

In other words, the young voters peeling away from him after the first hundred days were the least likely to have wanted him to pursue the most extreme versions of these policies in the first place.

[Nate Cohn]

That's exactly right.

[Michael Balvaro]

Of course, the big question and what I want us to talk about after the break is how much any of this matters for a president who does not seem to care much at all about public opinion, whose party is profoundly afraid of him and not operating in any way as a check against him in Congress, and as a result seems kind of immune to the result of a poll like this.

[Nate Cohn]

I think it does matter. And I think that although the president may not care about the result of a poll, and I actually think he kind of does care about the results of polls personally, Michael, it's just my interpretation. I think that it does affect things he does care about.

[Michael Balvaro]

All right, well, let's discuss that when we come back.

[Nate Cohn]

Foreign.

[Michael Balvaro]

We'Ll be right back.

[Podcast Host]

This podcast is supported by Andor Season 2. Critics everywhere hailed the first season of Andor as the best Star wars series yet. The Wrap called it thrilling and exciting, and the Verge said it's truly phenomenal storytelling. The Emmy nominated series stars Diego Luna as Cassian andor watch as he embarks on a path from rebel to hero. Andor Season 2 is now streaming only on Disney.

[Emily Haroldson]

I'm Diana Wynn. I'm a producer on the Daily and I worked on an episode about how these really complicated global forces impact this one ranching family. I'm just gonna. I'm recording now. I'm just gonna record everything. I've lived in one of the most rural pockets of Texas, and I always heard ranchers say it's super hard to make a living, but I didn't really get the economics of it at all. What kind of cows are these? In making this episode, I started to understand how decades of consolidation in this industry has made it tough for the people who produce our food. It's important to me that we were able to tell this story about rural America on the Daily. We have this amazing group of producers from all over the map who are bringing their own life experiences to the stories that we tell every day. But it takes a lot of resources and we need your support to keep doing that work. You can help us make the Daily by subscribing to the New York Times. Thank you.

[Michael Balvaro]

So, Nate, talk about why a poll like this does matter in this unique political environment in which the president, as I just said before the break, seems pretty thoroughly insulated for now from the blowback to what people regard as the excesses of his first hundred days.

[Nate Cohn]

So I think that before I offer the reasons why I think this does matter, and in particular could matter more later, I think it is worth acknowledging that the president to this point is probably pretty insulated from these results. A 42% approval rating isn't great, but it's not a political catastrophe. His base is still mostly on his side, as you alluded to. Congressional Republicans aren't going to break away from him based simply on the result of this poll. But I think that the biggest reason why this number would be concerning to the White House is because this isn't necessarily the end of his fall. There's a lot of reason to think that the president's approval ratings have been in sort of steady decline over the last month or two. None of the factors that are driving down the president's approval rating are in the rearview mirror yet they're still happening. They're still potentially exerting a downward pull on his numbers. And the president also can continue to take additional measures that could continue to drag his approval ratings down further right.

[Michael Balvaro]

The trade war shows no signs of abating. There are legally questionable deportations that are still happening.

[Nate Cohn]

We haven't yet had a full on confrontation with the judiciary, even though one may be brewing. The president has talked about deporting citizens to El Salvador. I'm not saying he's going to do that, but if he does, then he's at risk of losing even more support. The point is that the actions that the president has taken to this point have already done discernible political damage. And if he continues with this pattern of conduct, he risks additional damage. And it's worth noting that we're talking about Trump's core strengths here, the economy and immigration. So he's risking his, the foundation of his appeal for large segments of the electorate.

[Michael Balvaro]

And that's why you're suggesting that these poll numbers, bad as they are, could get even worse.

[Nate Cohn]

Absolutely. And although it's true that Today, the president isn't at much risk to lose support from Republicans or something. I think it's worth noting just how quickly he could get into trouble, because the majority that the Republicans have in Congress is so thin, because he depends so much on maintaining an aura of dominance, and because large elements of our society to this point have stayed on the sideline. They haven't really forcefully spoken out against the president. And as it becomes clear that a large share of the public disapproves of the president, people feel more emboldened to come out against him.

[Michael Balvaro]

What you're describing is an invitation for resistance that would be validated by a poll like this.

[Nate Cohn]

Yeah, I mean, we live in a democracy that values public opinion in some deep way. No one likes polling, but everyone really cares about whether a majority of the country is on your side. And there is moral weight to having a majority of the country on your side. There was moral weight to Trump winning the popular vote, for instance, that he didn't possess in 2016. And that gets taken away from him here. And I think that there will be practical consequences to that, especially given the breadth of his ambitions.

[Michael Balvaro]

Well, talk about the practical consequences. I'm gonna guess some of that might have to do with elections that are still a little bit a ways off midterms, but also perhaps with what Republicans in Congress might be willing to tolerate when they're called upon to. And what this poll has found are some of these excesses.

[Nate Cohn]

Yeah, as I alluded to, the Republicans have a very narrow majority in the House, and that creates two major risks. One is that they could lose control of the chamber in an election. The poll, by the way, found Democrats with a lead on what we call the generic ballot, which is the question asking whether you want Democrats or Republicans to control Congress.

[Michael Balvaro]

And they want Democrats to control the.

[Nate Cohn]

Poll, and they want Democrats to control Congress. So that's one risk. The second risk is that even if the Republicans have controlled Congress until November 2028, he may not have a governing majority in the House if he can't keep nearly every member of the chamber in line. And as the president's approval rating sinks, there are greater incentives for moderate Republicans from districts that voted for Kamala Harris or only but narrowly voted for Donald Trump to defy the president in their pursuit of reelection. And there may just be genuinely skeptical members of Congress who feel emboldened to oppose his agenda on the merits because they know that the president is weak. That would threaten his ability to extend his tax cuts, to slash entitlement programs, or anything else he may want from the Congress. And then the president Situ could find himself almost as like a lame duck sooner than later if the trends in the poll were to continue.

[Michael Balvaro]

Right. If you're a swing district Republican and you look at these numbers, you recognize that staying too closely attached to Trump might cost you your seat. And then the incentive structure that we normally think about, which is, I don't want to piss off this president, starts to maybe change.

[Nate Cohn]

Exactly. And there are other organizations and people and institutions who might be likelier to resist President Trump than they would if he had a 55% approval rating, a law firm under attack, a university, the judiciary. All of these groups are ever so subtly affected by whether they feel like they have the wind of public opinion at their back. And as the president's ratings sink, I think they become likelier, maybe even only slightly likelier, but likelier nonetheless to oppose the president.

[Michael Balvaro]

Nate, since you just brought up those institutions that have been, in some cases, persecuted and prosecuted by this presidency, I wonder how you're thinking about what this poll tells us about. One of the great questions throughout the campaign and in the first hundred days of this presidency, which is how we're supposed to think about a new and by many measures, more authoritarian version of the presidency. I mean, clearly, this poll finds that many Americans are seeing excesses in it, and yet it's not stopping the president from pursuing a far more robustly powerful version of the executive branch.

[Nate Cohn]

I thought that both in generalities and in specifics, the poll provided a lot of evidence that there was very little public support for Trump to claim an even more assertive and powerful version of the presidency than he already has. Some of this is already beginning to hurt him politically. As we talked about in the context of the Garcia case and as we talked about with this whole idea that the president is going too far. I mean, almost every excess we're talking about are cases where the president is stretching his authority beyond what we would have agreed in the past the president could undertake on his own, should he go even farther. The president faces really serious political risk, according to the poll, if he were to outright defy the judiciary. For instance, only 6% of voters said that the president should be allowed to defy a Supreme court ruling. Only 26% of voters said that the president should just do whatever they think is best. Even that means going outside of the existing rules, compared to 2/3 who say that the president needs to follow the existing rules.

[Michael Balvaro]

People want their president to operate within the bounds of the Constitution, and it's.

[Nate Cohn]

Like that on every question. And they're not close either. You know, we have a very polarized country. We're used to 5050 elections. We're used to issues where the parties are, you know, between 40 and 60% on these kind of big executive power questions about whether the President gets to go beyond the limits that have been imposed on Presidents in the past. We're talking about a quarter of the electorate or less that's on his side. The overwhelming majority of the public is just not there for this, including to flip the glass now to being half empty for a second half of Republicans won't be there for him. That's the scenario where congressional support would quickly start to break down, I think.

[Michael Balvaro]

But if the President doesn't care and if the midterms aren't for what, a year and a half or so, it still could mean a lot of big changes, a much more forceful, powerful executive branch that's not responsive to those numbers you just talk about, and maybe even a constitutional crisis.

[Nate Cohn]

Yeah, you're moving outside of the realm of public opinion here. Right. Because the means by which various institutions can respond to the President may be much more limited than the public reaction against him. So it's totally possible the President can pursue a wide ranging agenda that goes well beyond what any President has done in the past, that the courts and the Congress fail to check him even though a majority of the public is opposed. That's a real possibility. Nonetheless, over the medium to longer term, this tremendous amount of public opposition to the excesses of the presidency to this point, let alone the more extreme scenarios we're contemplating would make it very difficult for the President to sustain this kind of conduct over the longer term. In a world where the Democrats have taken control of the House, let alone if you imagine the President seeking a third term, or even if he doesn't seek a third term, simply if there's another Republican who gets elected, whether they could continue to pursue these policies, this kind of public opinion makes a lasting change like this much more difficult, I think, to sustain. And you know, I should say that when we look at this in the context of a broader rise of right wing populist authoritarianism across the world in places like Hungary or Turkey or Russia or India, we see that the political parties that are pulling this off are really popular. They command overwhelming support from the public. They do so when they win in the first place. They enter office with a broad coalition and often a clear majority of the electorate, and they solidify that support in office. It's Also worth noting that they are assisted often by undermining the institutions that attempt to check them, whether it's the media or the courts or so on. The kinds of things that Donald Trump is attempting. And that's not how this is playing out to this point. Donald Trump may be undertaking many measures that are reminiscent of those populist right wing authoritarian governments, but the public's response is not conducive to that taking hold in a way that permanently affects the trajectory of the United States without a large backlash, whether it's in the midterm or the next presidential election and so on.

[Michael Balvaro]

Are you saying the American psyche has not fundamentally changed in the face of this and rallied behind it? The leaders in these countries you just mentioned, Hungary, Turkey, India, they don't do what they do in the face of public opposition. They do it because they know it is popular. That is not what we're seeing here. That's not what we're seeing from this poll. We're seeing that when it comes to these excesses, actions that Trump is taking that resemble those of leaders in these other countries, that Americans are saying that's not what we want.

[Nate Cohn]

That's right. Donald Trump, if he is trying to create a more authoritarian system of government in the United States, is running up against long standing American values that are as old as the republic or even older. And that makes it much more difficult for him to get the public to acquiesce to broader claims of executive power than presidents have managed to claim for themselves in the past. In a strange way, and this is an extreme example, and there are obviously many differences, but in a strange way, it's almost the reverse of the challenges the US Faced in Iraq. When the US Invaded Iraq, there were lots of people who questioned whether the US could implant a democracy in a country without any history. We tried liberal democracy. We tried and it failed for a number of reasons, besides the country not having a tradition of democratic governance. But if you were to try and implant an authoritarian regime in the United States, you face a sort of similar version of the problem, but in reverse, where you're trying to get the citizens to go along with a form of government that it doesn't have experience in the past and hasn't built a system of values around to support. And again, that doesn't mean it's impossible. You can clearly point to cases historically where even liberal societies turn toward more authoritarian regimes, but that doesn't mean it's not more challenging as a consequence. And you can see that in the poll, right?

[Michael Balvaro]

The poll does not in any way at the moment suggest that the country has a big appetite for the most extreme dimensions of Trump's first 100 days, which doesn't tell us, as you said, that those elements won't persist. It just tells you that the electorate has not changed in a way that suggests that they suddenly now want it.

[Nate Cohn]

That's right. And that's also part of why I can't help but think that this was a bit of a missed political opportunity for conservatives and for Donald Trump. You know, they didn't win the last election of the landslide by any stretch, but they often won the debate over the issues fairly decisively. On immigration, the public wanted a crackdown in immigration, a secure border. They wanted improved public safety. They wanted lower costs. There were a lot of opportunities here for the Trump administration to pursue a very conservative agenda that was consistent with the mandate that they had. And to the extent that they think that they are acting within their mandate over their first hundred days, I think that they have misread it and that they have taken it much farther than they argued for in the last election and that voters believe that they were voting for when they backed him last November. And the consequence of that has already done real damage to his presidency. And if his conduct continues, it may continue to do even more damage over the remaining years of his term.

[Michael Balvaro]

Well, Nate, thank you very much. We appreciate it.

[Nate Cohn]

Michael, thank you for having me.

[Michael Balvaro]

Foreign we'll be right back.

[Podcast Host]

This podcast is supported by Andor Season 2. Critics everywhere hailed the first season of Andor as the best Star wars series yet. The Wrap called it thrilling and exciting, and the Verge said it's truly phenomenal storytelling. The Emmy nominated series stars Diego Luna as Cassian andor watch as he embarks on a path from rebel to hero. Andor Season 2 is now streaming only on Disney.

[Nate Cohn]

We are living in interesting times, a turning point in history. Are we entering a dark authoritarian era or are we on the brink of a technological golden age or the apocalypse? No one really knows, but I'm trying to find out from New York Times opinion. I'm Ross Douthat and on my show Interesting Times, I'm exploring this strange new world order with the thinkers and leaders giving it shape. Follow it wherever you get your podcasts.

[Michael Balvaro]

Here's what else you need to know today. In its latest aggressive moves on immigration, the Trump administration has arrested a local judge in Wisconsin for allegedly obstructing the detention of an undocumented immigrant and has deported a US Citizen to Honduras. The arrested judge is accused of steering the immigrant through a side door in her courtroom while ICE agents waited to arrest him in a public hallway. The judge says she will fight the charges. Meanwhile, the deported US Citizen is a two year old who, according to a federal judge, may have been unconstitutionally deported against the wishes of her father and Pope Francis was laid to rest over the weekend in a solemn and majestic funeral held on the steps of St. Peter's Basilica in in Rome. Hundreds of thousands of mourners, including presidents, prime ministers and church cardinals, filled Vatican City for the ceremony in which Francis was remembered as a voice for the voiceless across the world. Today's episode was Produced by Caitlin O'Keefe, Asta Chaturvedi and Stella Tan. It was edited by M.J. davis, Lynn and Paige Cowett, contains original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano and Rowani Misto and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsverk of Wonderly. That's it for the Daily I'm Michael Balboro. See you tomorrow.

[Emily Haroldson]

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