The Daily (The New York Times)

Episode: "Are Higher Energy Prices Here to Stay?"

Date: March 25, 2026
Host: Rachel Abrams
Guest: Patricia Cohen

Overview

This episode addresses the global economic fallout from the ongoing war with Iran, focusing on the consequences of recent attacks on critical energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf. Host Rachel Abrams speaks with New York Times reporter Patricia Cohen, who breaks down the shift from short-term disruption to a long-term energy crisis—especially in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market—after Iranian and Israeli strikes on key facilities. They discuss the ripple effects: skyrocketing fuel prices, fragile economies under strain, measures taken by governments around the world, and the potential for a recession if prices remain high.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Shift from Temporary to Long-term Energy Shock

[02:05]

• Early war concerns centered on blockages in the Strait of Hormuz impacting oil transport.
• The conflict escalated last week when attacks targeted not just transit but LNG production infrastructure—namely, destruction of LNG processing plants in Qatar.
• Patricia Cohen: “Instead of talking about the impact in terms of days and weeks, now we’re talking about it in terms of months and years.”

2. What Was Hit — The Qatar LNG Facility

[03:51]

• Two major LNG "trains" (processing plants) in Qatar were destroyed in the attacks.
• These plants are vital and extremely difficult to replace, with rebuilding potentially taking up to five years.

[05:10]

• Qatar supplies ~20% of the global LNG market; approximately 20% of its production capacity was lost—directly impacting world supply.

3. The Role and Importance of LNG

[06:29]

• LNG is a key energy source, especially for countries that have moved away from coal for environmental reasons.
• Patricia Cohen: “LNG makes up about 21% of Japan’s total energy supply, but it’s used to generate 30% of its electricity… Korea… has increased its use of LNG by more than 200% in the last 25 years.”

[08:38]

• LNG byproducts are critical for industrial needs—plastic production (naphtha), semiconductors (helium), and, crucially, nitrogen-based fertilizers important to world food supply.

4. Real-World Consequences for Countries

[09:38]

• The crisis is being felt heavily in countries across Asia and Europe, causing immediate shortages and surging prices.
• Rachel Abrams [10:04]: “…in Pakistan, skyrocketing fuel prices has been accompanied with power shortages…”

[10:16]

• Examples of extreme measures:
  • In Sri Lanka and Pakistan: Schools and governments offices closed.
  • Thailand: Government workers told to avoid elevators, take the stairs, and limit travel.
  • South Korea: First energy fuel cap in three decades, energy-saving campaigns.
  • Europe: Steep hikes in gas prices (UK natural gas up 40% since the war began).

5. Impact in the United States

[12:05]

• Despite being the world’s largest oil and LNG producer, U.S. consumers are not insulated due to the global nature of energy markets.
• Patricia Cohen: “…the price of energy is set on a global market…when that’s going up, that’s going to affect everything.”

6. Indirect Effects and Economic Risks

[15:08]

• The crisis undermines trust and perceived safety in the Gulf as an investment destination.
• Energy prices push up the cost of everything due to transportation and manufacturing.
• Inflation risks rise, possibly prompting central banks to hike interest rates, which can stall economic growth and investments.
• Patricia Cohen: “If energy prices stay high,…it’s going to be very difficult to avoid a recession.”

7. Surging Costs and AI Growth

[16:40]

• High interest rates and energy costs could slow down construction of AI data centers—central to recent U.S. economic growth.

8. Paths Forward and Challenges

[18:52]

• Even if the war ends immediately, a full return to "normal" energy production is six months away at best, per the International Energy Agency—and rebuilding destroyed LNG capacity takes years.

[20:01]

• Stopgap measures: U.S. and others releasing strategic reserves, and—in a controversial move—lifting sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil to compensate for shortages.

• Longer term: Only increasing the use of renewable energy sources will reduce systemic risk, but those investments are massive and politically challenging in places like the U.S.

• Patricia Cohen [21:37]: “Anything that you do to increase the supply of energy is going to help both in terms of diversification as well as bringing down the cost…but the world is an interconnected place, and it’s just gonna remain that way.”

9. Risks of Further Escalation & Unpredictability

[22:18]

• Iranian attacks have proven to be highly effective, revealing new vulnerabilities in the global economy.

• Patricia Cohen [22:58]: “…we’ve just talked about this one attack… and how that could have an impact a few years down the road. What happens if there’s more damage to Qatar’s gas fields and to other processing facilities in the region…So that’s a big worry.”

• The Iranian regime sees the war as existential, making further escalation possible and making global economic forecasting highly uncertain.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Patricia Cohen [02:05]:
  “The attacks… really moved the war into another phase, in terms of both energy supplies and the global economy.”

• Rachel Abrams [03:17]:
  “The attacks, quote, fundamentally reshaped the Global LNG outlook.”

• Patricia Cohen [07:38]:
  “Japan… decreased its dependence on nuclear power and coal and increased its use of LNG… used to generate 30% of its electricity.”

• Patricia Cohen [11:48]:
  “Natural gas prices have increased in Britain by 40%, just since the Iran war started.”

• Rachel Abrams [17:34]:
  “Right. They’ve been propping up the stock market.”

• Patricia Cohen [17:36]:
  “Exactly.”

• Patricia Cohen [18:52]:
  “If energy prices stay high… then it’s going to be very difficult to avoid a recession.”

• Patricia Cohen [20:53]:
  “This sounds crazy, but the US has lifted sanctions on Iran’s exports of oil… a multibillion dollar war with Iran to buy oil from Iran.”

• Patricia Cohen [22:58]:
  “…we’ve just talked about this one attack… and how that could have an impact a few years down the road. What happens if there’s more damage to Qatar’s gas fields…?”

• Patricia Cohen [24:23]:
  “…the head of the International Energy Agency has called this the greatest global energy security threat in history.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening + Context: 00:34–02:05
• LNG Facility Attacks Explained: 02:05–05:54
• Importance of LNG & Byproducts: 06:29–09:20
• Global Fallout (Asia, Europe, US): 09:38–12:18
• Secondary Economic Effects: 15:01–17:34
• Long-term Outlook & Recovery: 18:52–21:56
• Risks of Further Escalation: 22:18–24:48

Conclusion

The episode underscores a fundamental shift in global energy markets: the war’s escalation from transportation bottlenecks to outright destruction of key energy infrastructure has rendered price spikes and shortages a long-term reality—threatening economic stability worldwide. Even if the shooting stops, high prices, inflation, and disrupted supply chains are set to linger, while the world scrambles for both emergency stopgaps and sustainable long-term solutions.