Do Trump Voters Like His Tariffs? We Went to Michigan to Find Out.

Summary

Summary of "Do Trump Voters Like His Tariffs? We Went to Michigan to Find Out"

Podcast: The Daily
Host: Michael Barbaro
Author: The New York Times
Episode Release Date: April 18, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of The Daily, hosted by Michael Barbaro, Nate Cohn explores the complex sentiments of Trump voters in Michigan regarding President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Focusing on the impact of these tariffs on the local economy, especially within the automotive sector, the episode delves into whether these economic measures are becoming a political liability for Trump among his voter base.

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Reconnecting with Trump Voters on Tariffs

[02:19] Nate Cohn:
Nate Cohn explains his motivation for revisiting Trump voters post-election, highlighting the need to assess their reactions to Trump's economic policies, particularly tariffs. He notes that tariffs have become a signature aspect of Trump's economic strategy, which initially contributed to his electoral success by appealing to voters concerned about manufacturing jobs and economic stability.

Key Quote:
"It just crystallized, I think, a moment that feels like we're finally in the Trump presidency."
— Nate Cohn [02:19]

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Case Study: Monica, a Michigan Voter

Nate and producer Anna Foley travel to Michigan to interview Monica, a fourth-generation autoworker from Detroit. Monica voted for Trump primarily because she believed his tariffs would bolster U.S. manufacturing and protect local jobs.

[04:02] Monica:
"I ended up going with Trump. Basically what it came down to was I feel like Trump is going to keep US Manufacturing going strong."

Monica works at a Chrysler plant owned by Stellantis and has experienced firsthand the challenges of outsourcing and layoffs. She initially supported Trump's tariffs as a means to resist outsourcing and revive domestic manufacturing.

[06:08] Monica:
"What I love about Trump's foreign military policy is what I hate about his economics policy. He's unpredictable."

Despite her support, Monica expresses skepticism about the effectiveness of tariffs, acknowledging that while they aim to protect jobs, their broad implementation has led to unexpected challenges and uncertainties.

[08:10] Monica:
"I cast my vote and that I need to trust the process. Let the man cook. Hopefully he knows what the heck he's doing."

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Democratic Party's Dilemma on Tariffs

The episode transitions to discussing the Democratic Party's response to Trump's tariff policies. Nate Cohn highlights the party's struggle to balance condemning the tariffs without alienating their traditional working-class base in crucial swing states like Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

[20:05] Nate Cohn:
"Most Democrats have tried to find a middle road option."

Prominent Democrats like Senator Cory Booker have universally condemned tariffs, whereas others like Governor Gretchen Whitmer advocate for a more nuanced approach, recognizing tariffs as a potential tool when used judiciously.

[21:26] Monica:
"You can't just pull out the tariff hammer to swing at every problem without a clear defined end goal."

The lack of a cohesive Democratic message creates confusion among voters, making it difficult for the party to present a unified front against the tariffs or offer a clear alternative strategy.

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Impact on the Democratic Party and Future Implications

Nate Cohn discusses the broader implications of tariff policies on the Democratic Party's identity and electoral prospects. The tariffs not only challenge the Republicans by creating internal divisions but also put Democrats in a complex position as they attempt to address the concerns of their traditional base while appealing to a more diverse and cosmopolitan electorate.

[25:11] Nate Cohn:
"What I find is the important distinction for Democrats is are they gonna be protector or improver of these things?"

If Trump's tariffs lead to increased inflation or a recession, the Democratic Party could benefit electorally, as public dissatisfaction may shift blame toward Trump's administration. This scenario presents a potential opportunity for Democrats to gain traction in upcoming midterm and 2028 elections by positioning themselves as a more stable and reliable alternative.

Key Quote:
"If we see the inflation, we'll see the backlash."
— Nate Cohn [28:53]

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Conclusion

The episode concludes by emphasizing the precarious position both major parties find themselves in due to Trump's tariff policies. While Republicans grapple with internal divisions and potential alienation of certain voter blocs, Democrats face the challenge of articulating a clear and compelling alternative that resonates with their diverse base. The ultimate impact of these tariffs remains to be seen, but their role in shaping the political landscape, especially in key swing states like Michigan, is undeniably significant.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Nate Cohn [02:19]:
  "It just crystallized, I think, a moment that feels like we're finally in the Trump presidency."

• Monica [04:02]:
  "I ended up going with Trump. Basically what it came down to was I feel like Trump is going to keep US Manufacturing going strong."

• Monica [06:08]:
  "What I love about Trump's foreign military policy is what I hate about his economics policy. He's unpredictable."

• Monica [08:10]:
  "I cast my vote and that I need to trust the process. Let the man cook. Hopefully he knows what the heck he's doing."

• Nate Cohn [20:05]:
  "Most Democrats have tried to find a middle road option."

• Monica [21:26]:
  "You can't just pull out the tariff hammer to swing at every problem without a clear defined end goal."

• Nate Cohn [25:11]:
  "What I find is the important distinction for Democrats is are they gonna be protector or improver of these things?"

• Nate Cohn [28:53]:
  "If we see the inflation, we'll see the backlash."

---

This episode offers a nuanced exploration of the political and economic ramifications of Trump's tariff policies, particularly through the lens of Michigan voters. It underscores the complexities facing both Republicans and Democrats in navigating this contentious issue amidst shifting voter sentiments and economic uncertainties.

Transcript

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[Michael Barbaro]

From the New York Times, I'm Michael Balbaro. This is the Daily President Trump's tariffs have terrified stock markets, business owners and anyone with a 401k and raised the question of whether his approach to trade is becoming a major political liability for voters in Michigan. The answer to that question is not so simple. Today my colleague Asted Herndon explains what he found on the ground in Michigan and what it reveals about the dilemma that tariffs now pose for Democrats. It's Friday, April 18th. Welcome back.

[Nate Cohn]

Thank you. I love being here.

[Michael Barbaro]

You know, the last time you were on the show.

[Nate Cohn]

Yes.

[Michael Barbaro]

Was Election Night itself.

[Nate Cohn]

Yes. The live Nate Cohn call of the election we'll never forget. Mm.

[Michael Barbaro]

You were very memorable yourself. And what made you, I think, such a tremendous asset and colleague to have in the campaign was the fact that you were traveling the United States talking to voters, a lot of them, Trump voters, and seeing things in a very clear way. And ever since, you have been waiting for the right moment to return to a lot of those voters and follow up with them, basically figure out what they make of his presidency so far. So why this moment?

[Nate Cohn]

Well, I think that I wanted there to be some time for things to set in. And I have had the experience before of the year after an election, a lot of the electorate, particularly the folks I spend a lot of time with, people who are not hyper politics obsessed or news consumers in a huge way. They often step back from politics in that year after they disconnect, disconnect. You know, they got lives unlike us, you know, and it felt like this moment was the time to check back in specifically around tariffs and just explain why. Yeah, I mean, obviously this has become his signature economic policy, and it's his signature economic policy after an election where he was largely successful because people attributed his competency on the economy to being preferable to Democrats. I mean, we heard more about groceries and eggs and all that stuff last year than any other issue. And so considering, I think the shock of the Liberation Day announcement, the sweeping nature of it and the prospect of increased inflation in the future, it just crystallized, I think, a moment that feels like we're finally in the Trump presidency. Right. Like we've turned the page from the kind of Biden moment to him, kind of reshaping policy and government itself. And it's so kind of total and complete in a way that I thought it was a higher likelihood that it's cut through to people and they might have some sense of reaction.

[Michael Barbaro]

So as you begin to reconnect with these voters on the specific topic of tariffs, where do you begin? Who do you begin with?

[Nate Cohn]

Well, the first person that came to mind is a woman named Monica.

[Monica]

I'm a Motor City, Detroit homegirl. I love building cars.

[Nate Cohn]

Monica's someone we met last spring, and we tracked how she kind of made her decision on who to vote for throughout the months leading up to the election. I wanted to know how you ended up voting.

[Monica]

I ended up going with Trump. Basically what it came down to was I feel like Trump is going to keep US Manufacturing going strong.

[Nate Cohn]

And I thought of Monica specifically for a couple reasons. One, she lives in Michigan, kind of home of auto industry. She's a fourth generation autoworker. And then most specifically, I remember her explaining to me after the election that tariffs were part of the reason she voted for Donald Trump.

[Monica]

Tariffs aren't great, but if a vehicle built outside of the US Costs so much more than one inside the US Then maybe we'll just keep buying American. It's a Hail Mary. I don't think he's going to fix everything for us.

[Nate Cohn]

The plant that she works at is a Chrysler plant, which is owned by Stellantis, and it's been going through a lot of changes over the last several years. And actually, the car that she was making got outsourced to Mexico, and she's been laid off for several months. And so one thing that Monica said was that she liked the idea that Trump was talking about bringing manufacturing jobs back to America and that tariffs were his tool to do so.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right. Specifically, he has said tariffs are how we bring domestic manufacturing of cars back.

[Nate Cohn]

Right. So whether it's the campaign trail or his announcement on April 2 that specifically mentions Stellantis, Monica is directly in the middle of the impacts of Trump's policy and a voter who I think represents the type of optimism that surrounded kind of Trump's economic pitch. And so I was wondering what the expectations to reality were specifically with someone like her.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay, so tell us what happened when you followed up with her about the tariffs.

[Nate Cohn]

Okay, so I wanted to meet Monica in person. So me, along with producer Anna Foley, headed to Michigan, and we Met at a brewery that is near her hometown and it's about 30ish minutes outside of Detroit. And when we met her, my first question was just how has she been since the election? And what was her reaction to kind of the first hundred ish days of Trump? And simply her response was, you know, a mixed bag.

[Monica]

I'll tell you this, I didn't think that he would go ham on the entire world. I thought it would be a little more pick and choose as far as who we went after.

[Nate Cohn]

She mentioned a couple things, and they really reflect some of the other voters we've been checking in with also. So before the election, you didn't have a big opinion on tariffs, or did you? Because, you know, like, you know, like.

[Monica]

I had a minimal. Sure, sure, you know. But I did not think it would become a global trade tariff war.

[Nate Cohn]

An idea that they thought these tariffs were going to focus specifically on places like China or places like Mexico, not be sweeping and include, you know, random islands like heard island and McDonald island are getting tariffs. Right.

[Michael Barbaro]

The ones without people on it.

[Nate Cohn]

Yes. Inhabited by penguins.

[Monica]

Poor penguins.

[Nate Cohn]

She mentioned how the uncertainty causes real instability.

[Monica]

What I love about Trump's foreign military policy is what I hate about his economics policy.

[Nate Cohn]

Explain that.

[Monica]

He's unpredictable. Unpredictability can be a little strong. If you're like, I don't know if I want to mess with these guys. He might drop the Moab.

[Michael Barbaro]

Yeah.

[Monica]

Finances, needs, security. Finances, needs. Hey, if you do A and B, then we will do C. And so.

[Nate Cohn]

I think that, you know, there was a kind of understanding that Donald Trump means disruption. Right. That Donald Trump means chaos. It's just that on this issue specifically, this isn't what she was expecting. And I think this overlaps with a lot of other voters we talked to who are expecting Donald Trump to focus on bringing prices down.

[Michael Barbaro]

So she's somewhat skeptical.

[Nate Cohn]

She is somewhat skeptical.

[Monica]

However, I'm really hoping that Art of the Deal is just not the name of his book.

[Nate Cohn]

There was still remaining amounts of hope that the uncertainty in the short term would bring back the job in the longer term. She's still holding on to the kind of economic premise that Trump lays out that say that this could actually be a Runway for him to cut some deals with these companies or deals with other nations that open up a space that could bring manufacturing jobs back.

[Monica]

I am thinking that I cast my vote and that I need to trust the process. Let the man cook. Hopefully he knows what the heck he's doing.

[Nate Cohn]

So it reminded me that although the branding of Donald Trump can feel tiresome and I think can feel like political spin. It's potent. It's potent, and it really is. The number one way a lot of laypeople have come to him is a sense that he is a kind of assumed level of competence when it comes to business and the economy.

[Monica]

Everything's a negotiation or a poker game. Especially with Trump.

[Michael Barbaro]

It sounds like that branding brings to a person like Monica a measure of patience.

[Nate Cohn]

It earns Trump a level of trust with her, and it gives him some sort of Runway to see how this policy plays out. Now, I think we should also say that some of that Runway is built on her individual kind of preference for Trump, but it's also about her lack of trust in Democrats. When we ask her, has this kind of chaos made you feel regretful about voting for Trump or things like that? She says, no one. She feels as if she's happy with her choice. She made the choice and she feels fine about it. But she really mentioned something I think is really important, that she felt that Trump had at least diagnosed a real problem in her life, which is that she feels as if these free trade agreements have, in the macro, pulled these jobs away from her community. And she doesn't feel as if Democrats named that problem or have provided a solution.

[Michael Barbaro]

What was her experience of the Democratic Party's message around this issue in the campaign? And I guess even up to this point.

[Nate Cohn]

Right. She has a really specific interaction with this because, as you remember, President Biden actually came to Michigan to walk the picket line as UAW workers were striking.

[Michael Barbaro]

I remember very well. Became the first president, I think, in history to walk the picket line.

[Nate Cohn]

And Monica's in the uaw. Right.

[Michael Barbaro]

Like, he was there on behalf of her.

[Nate Cohn]

Right, right, right. We're talking about people whose union beliefs are really core to their identity, core to their work, or to their family and their family story here. And so when we asked her about it, like, why doesn't Biden get credit? Why don't Democrats get credit for kind of supporting you in that effort? She says, like, for me, I took it.

[Monica]

Okay, cool. He's supporting the union, the right to strike. Cool.

[Nate Cohn]

As a union member, I was glad that he supported our right to strike. Yeah, sure.

[Monica]

But he's not pulling back on his EV mandates, which is what we've been asking for.

[Nate Cohn]

But it's not as if Biden being there really did anything about our bigger issue, which is that we're losing these jobs in a long term sense.

[Monica]

Trump comes in, he did not go to a Picket line. He went to a separate area. I did not go see him.

[Nate Cohn]

And she was saying that when Trump came, yeah, he wasn't supporting a right to strike.

[Monica]

But what kind of clicked it for me is he said exactly what. What I was thinking two weeks leading up to. It doesn't matter how much you make if the cars aren't made here. It doesn't matter how much you make if you don't have a job.

[Nate Cohn]

He was saying, none of this matters if y'all don't have a job. And she was saying she really agreed with that framing of the issue. And honestly, she felt that only tariffs were being presented as the type of solution that could rectify the issue.

[Michael Barbaro]

This is really interesting. So even if tariffs aren't necessarily the right solution being done in exactly the right way, they are the only solution being offered in that 2024 campaign, because Democrats aren't really talking about how to bring those jobs back. They're just showing up at a picket line. And that is just clearly insufficient for her.

[Nate Cohn]

It was. And so all of this adds up to a real Runway, that Trump has to speak to that problem because she feels as if she is confident that she cast her vote for at least the guy who. Who's trying to do something. And that all adds up to her to being much more powerful than the symbolic measures she felt the Democrats were giving.

[Michael Barbaro]

Now, what about the prospect that Trump's tariffs actually backfire on the car industry? My sense is that to some degree, that has started to happen. I think it was Stellantis who came out and said because of these tariffs, were gonna have to take some people out of their jobs that would seem to impinge on a Runway that Trump would have with auto workers like Monica.

[Nate Cohn]

Absolutely. I posed that direct question to her, and she kind of shrugged it off. She believes that the reason Stellantis laid those folks off is much more about a change in what car they were producing, not the tariffs.

[Monica]

Our local president, Eric Graham, is the president of Local 140, and he had said that this shutdown at Warren Trucks specifically does not have to do with the tariffs. I don't know if I buy that, given the timing, we are being told that there is a problem with the engines being produced.

[Nate Cohn]

And, you know, I was surprised by that answer, but she was not creating a causal relationship between Trump's tariffs and those layoffs. But in the same way, she's not in confusion that this might be a little overly optimistic, the idea that her job would come back because of tariffs. She actually says she Isn't sure if it's going to work out.

[Monica]

I would not blame Trump for the loss of my job. He's trying. He's doing something. And I have faith that should Harris had won, it wouldn't even be addressed at all.

[Nate Cohn]

And she says that, you know, she wouldn't even blame Trump if her job doesn't come back or if these tariffs do cause kind of more job losses.

[Michael Barbaro]

It's a pretty fascinating thing to say.

[Nate Cohn]

Yeah. And again, it goes back to that diagnosis of a problem. She thinks that a problem has been true for 15, 20 years. Folks haven't talked about it, and that at this point, Trump has so much leeway on this front because she feels as if no one was kind of taking up this cause. And so even if he fails, she's going to give him credit for trying. And, you know, it wasn't just Monica. Monica actually took us over to a Chrysler plant. How far are we?

[Monica]

We are probably about three miles.

[Michael Barbaro]

Where she herself worked.

[Nate Cohn]

Where she herself worked. Mom's spaghetti. My mom's spaghetti. Duh, duh, Mom's spaghetti. And of course, because this is Detroit, we were quite literally on eight Mile Road of Eminem fame.

[Michael Barbaro]

Do you need to interpret that for the daily listing?

[Nate Cohn]

No. I mean, if you can't get that, it wasn't meant for you. And we were talking with workers who were getting off of their shift. Hey, how's it going? My name's Esteb. This is Anna. We're from the New York Times. We're talking, asking them about the tariffs, about Trump's policy, about the prospect inflation. And it was remarkable how we heard much of the same things that we heard from Monica. I think what Trump's doing is awesome. For people who supported Trump who worked at that plant, they were saying that they have a real Runway for him because they really trust and hope he'll bring his job back. So if you read the book the.

[Michael Barbaro]

Art of the Deal, he goes in high.

[Nate Cohn]

So he's asking for a ridiculous tariff like 30%. And when the that country might be given 20%, all he's trying to do.

[Michael Barbaro]

Is start off high, end up in the middle. No big deal. We'll get through it.

[Nate Cohn]

They were talking about that same problem diagnosis as important. Terrorists are putting the overseas people in check. They're taking advantage of us for how many years? One guy told us he doesn't care if prices go up. Tariffs make things more expensive, but it'll make money for the country. So how do you feel about it? Kind of 50. 50. I survive I adapt. I'm the kind of guy that'll, if I'm starving, I'll eat a rat, I'll eat cockroach. I'm a survivalist. That was the level of thinking about, like, partisan kinship among the Republicans. But even when we were talking to people who seemed more middle of the road, or even some people who were Democrats or voted against Donald Trump, they weren't acting as if the sky is falling. When we was going through bankruptcy, you knew exactly what was going on. This. I don't know how this is going to play out yet. I got to give it a little bit. And I keep going back to this thing about the diagnosing an issue, because I think about this one guy we talked to who was a Democrat who voted for Kamala Harris, said he hated Donald Trump. And even he was saying to me, he can't ignore the fact that Democrats put workers like him in this position. Both of them did get off the subject of what was on. What was the real thing that was on the pro supposed to be talking about. They skipped everything. They ended up talking about the things that were mostly just fighting them on themselves. You know, nobody's really talking about what we needed to talk about. Who's gonna make it, who's gonna bring out the guns, who's gonna bring us new jobs and everything. Who's doing that? Nobody really got. And so he was saying that even as he was upset with Donald Trump and the prospect of tariffs and the uncertainty that it caused, he was acknowledging, though, that same kind of problem diagnosis that led Monica to vote for her. Yeah, you were helpful to talk, too, so thank you. Yeah, thank you. Being at the plant and hearing that kind of range of voices really just reminded me about the kind of shrapnel from this kind of political bomb, you know, and the ways that by bomb.

[Michael Barbaro]

You mean the Trump bomb.

[Nate Cohn]

Yes, the Trump bomb. And I'm like, you know, obviously it puts Republicans in a difficult position because he's doing something fairly unpopular, and it has splintered their coalition. But it also reminds me how Trump's disruption, particularly on something like the economy and manufacturing, can put Democrats in a difficult position. Also because the voters I spoke to, they were a huge part of the traditional Democratic coalition. They made up the type of working class base that bolstered the party in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, electorally important places. But now that Democrats have kind of changed, become more cosmopolitan, become more college educated, become more overtly liberal, I think they have to ask themselves to do they still care to calibrate their message to the language of their traditional working class base? Or have they changed?

[Michael Barbaro]

We'll be right back.

[Nate Cohn]

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[Michael Barbaro]

Asad I want to talk about the bind that these tariffs seem to be putting the Democratic Party in, because I think a lot of people might assume that if you're a Democrat, the obvious thing to do would be to condemn these tariffs for a lot of reasons. First, the fact that they come from Trump and that they were rolled out pretty haphazardly, and also the fact that they are roiling the markets that economists predict they might lead to inflation, possibly even a recession. But as you just pointed out, it's not that simple, especially if as a Democratic Party, you're trying not to alienate a bloc of voters that at least used to make up your coalition in some very crucial swing states. So if you're the Democratic Party, what do you do?

[Nate Cohn]

Well, I think it's been interesting to see how different parts of the party are responding to this issue, and they've taken a couple different options. Listen, I just want to for myself tell you a full throated unequivocal condemnation of the Trump tariffs. A few of them I'm thinking about, folks like Senator Cory Booker have done a universal condemnation of tariffs, saying there's no equivocation tariffs are bad. But most Democrats have tried to find a middle road option. The White House's tariff shuffle here didn't have anything to do with manufacturing like they claimed.

[Michael Barbaro]

It was about manipulating the markets.

[Nate Cohn]

There have been people who say that maybe Republicans profited or there were things like insider trading that's been happening in the stock market. We've also seen people like Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut. If you're a company that can donate money to Donald Trump you don't have tariffs applied to you anymore. But if you're an industry that doesn't have political power or isn't paying off Donald Trump, the tariffs still apply. Saying that Donald Trump is gonna pass along a tax to regular people as the rich get exempted.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right.

[Nate Cohn]

And then there's been the other piece, which I think is embodied by folks like Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan.

[Monica]

I'm not against tariffs outright, but it.

[Nate Cohn]

Is a blunt tool.

[Monica]

You can't just pull out the tariff hammer to swing at every problem without.

[Nate Cohn]

A clear defined end goal. This kind of middle of the road approach that acknowledged tariffs can be something that Americans should use more. But just saying that Trump is not using them correctly. I've also seen this from Senator Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts. Tariffs can be an important tool in the toolbox when used in targeted ways. But right now what we've got is chaos and corruption.

[Michael Barbaro]

That's complicated.

[Nate Cohn]

Right.

[Michael Barbaro]

Like tariffs might be good, but Trump's tariffs are bad. I mean, that runs the risk of kind of validating what Trump is doing, but being critical of it at the same time. It sounds very mealy mouthed.

[Nate Cohn]

It does. And I think that the easier thing to do would be that universal condemnation. But as you're saying, that would immediately put them at odds. Maybe not with working class Americans all across the board, but certainly working class Americans in Michigan. Right. A deeply important electoral state. Other states we know, Ohio, Pennsylvania, have gone through some of this stuff too. And, and so because the impacts of this are specifically felt in these states that have this vital importance, it's put the national party at a place where it can't really do that. Easily understood universal rejection. And they've left themselves with this sort of, maybe tariffs are okay, but Trump's doing or imposing it wrong, or maybe there's a piece of this we should highlight, but it's not been a cohesive message. And so I think that that is the reason why I call it an, an important window into that identity crisis, because you're getting splintered messages rather than one universal one.

[Michael Barbaro]

I mean, what you're really getting at is a party that is in betwixt and in between and therefore not coming out very clearly in favor of tariffs and not coming out all that clearly against them. That does seem to bring you back to the challenge that you talked about in the first half of our conversation, which is that Trump's message, among all the things you can say about it, it's fundamentally clear.

[Nate Cohn]

Yeah.

[Michael Barbaro]

The Democratic message, as you have just established, muddled again.

[Nate Cohn]

Yeah. And I want to say it's important to me, like, I don't really hold them accountable for not having a singular message right now. Right. Like the time after an election is identity crisis. Right. This is gonna play out for years in the party and will not be really solved until a 20, 278 primary. Right. But I do think it's important to note that, like, when we use terms like, you know, working class realignment or the party needing to get back in touch with its base, these are the type of issues we're talking about, and these are the type of conflicts it can create. Democrats have a unique challenge with the diversity of their voters.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right.

[Nate Cohn]

Republicans are much more monolithic. So Democrats have more classes, more races, more demographics. And finding an issue that cuts across all those groups is legitimately harder. If they say they want to get closer to their working class base, that might put them at odds with another portion of the base.

[Michael Barbaro]

I mean, if you could imagine a Democratic Party message that somehow cuts across all those groups, I wonder what exactly it sounds like in this moment.

[Nate Cohn]

My experience would say it sounds somewhat like Donald Trump, honestly. It sounds like disruption. It sounds like change. It sounds like making political systems work better. Right. The thing I think Donald Trump challenges with Democrats specifically is the disruption of institutions that he is intentionally doing right now have, I think, created an instinct among some Democrats to just protect.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right.

[Nate Cohn]

But among the people we talk to, those institutions are unpopular.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right.

[Nate Cohn]

And there's a sense that they have already failed. So what I find is the important distinction for Democrats is are they gonna be protector or improver of these things? And protector just means Donald Trump is bad. What he's doing right here is bad. Improver means independent of him. Here's what we're gonna do to make that better. And I think that cuts across a lot of issues. Economy, Doge, immigration. I think it's basically the same challenge is asking themselves, is it just opposition which can work. Right. They can be a vessel of discontent, and that work for them the same way it worked for Donald Trump a couple years ago, or are they gonna have a competing vision? And I think when it comes to things like this, that's what we're hearing from voters is they feel like they don't know what the Democratic vision is to improve their lives, specifically economically, and bring back manufacturing jobs. Right. That, to me, is the choice they have on their hands.

[Michael Barbaro]

You and I are flying at a somewhat high altitude here politically in this conversation. There may very well come a moment in the next. Let's call it Three, six, nine months, where these tariffs, especially against China, if they remain in place, start to materially influenced the price of everything, everything. And then suddenly the facts on the ground might change. That Runway that you discovered with those voters in Michigan and the Democratic Party's mealy mouthness might open up a considerable amount of space to say to voters, we might not be the party that offered an alternative vision, but we're not the party that tanked the economy a hundred percent.

[Nate Cohn]

I mean, we don't have to overcomplicate this. The single worst thing I think this White House could do politically is what they are doing, right? Creating a causal relationship between their signature economic policy and prices going up. And so if the forecast is real and these tariffs stay in place, and we do see that inflation or we do have a recession or all of those kind of things that have been swirling, it is very clear to me and that this is also true in the numbers and polling, that people don't talk about Biden's economy anymore. Right. They're talking about Trump's economy. And so if that materially gets worse, I think this White House will be blamed for that. And that creates the perfect conditions for Democrats to have a good midterms and feel good about 2028. And that has nothing to do with their own vision. So I'm saying that is totally plausible. And so there's some ways you can think about vision and, and I think it's gonna become important and things like the primary things going on and you can see different parts of the party and coalition. But I'm like, all of that will be meaningless if we have a Donald Trump induced recession. And I think even our discussions with these people, that's their threshold too. Right now it seems like the chaos, they're kind of used to Donald Trump up against his usual enemies. And I think there is some leeway for the deal negotiation, things like that. But the guy who says he'll eat a rat for Donald Trump is the exception. If those prices increase, the only person who will be blamed for that is the president. And if you're a Democrat, that's the best thing that could happen for the prospect of the party returning to power.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right. Folks might love the idea of Trump as the dealmaker, but that is contingent upon the deal actually working for them.

[Nate Cohn]

Right. If we see the inflation, we'll see the backlash.

[Michael Barbaro]

Wells. Dad, thank you very much.

[Nate Cohn]

Thank you for having me. Foreign.

[Michael Barbaro]

We'll be right back.

[Nate Cohn]

Hi, this is Eric Kim with New York Times Cooking. As a recipe developer, I spend a lot of my time trying to come up with dishes that are quick, easy, but also very special. For me, that means dishes like gochugaru salmon. It's a crispy salmon filet with a salty, sweet glaze that bubbles up in candies. I love cooking this because it only takes 20 minutes. You can get this recipe and so many more ideas on New York times cooking. Visit nytcooking.com to get inspired.

[Michael Barbaro]

Here's what else you need to know today. For the second time in less than a year, a federal judge has ruled that Google has operated an illegal monopoly. In the latest ruling handed down on Thursday, a judge found that Google had broken the law as it built its dominance in online advertising. The ruling could eventually lead the Justice Department to seek a forced sale of Google's advertising products. And President Trump is lashing out at the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, for warning that Trump's tariffs might raise inflation. Writing on social media, Trump said that Powell's firing quote cannot happen fast enough under the law. The Federal Reserve is independent of the White House, and Powell has said that he will not step down even if Trump asks him to. I don't think he's doing the job.

[Nate Cohn]

He's too late, always too late, a little slow and, and I'm not happy with him.

[Michael Barbaro]

But during a news conference in the Oval Office, Trump claimed that he could, in fact, force Powell out of his job.

[Nate Cohn]

If I want him out, he'll be out of there real fast, believe me.

[Michael Barbaro]

Today's episode was produced by Anna foley and Caitlin O'Keefe, with help from Will Reed. It was edited by Devin Taylor, contains original music by Marian Lozano and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Runberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonderly. That's it for the Daily I'm Michael Balboro. See you on Monday. This episode is supported by HubSpot. Growing a business can feel impossible, but.

[Nate Cohn]

HubSpot's customer platform can help. It's powered by Breez, their suite of AI tools, so you can generate more leads, close more deals, and scale your service fast. With Breeze agents handling the busy work, customers are cutting sales cycles in half and saving hours on work each week. Best of all, you can see results in days, not months. Visit HubSpot.com AI to learn more.