Podcast Summary: The Daily

Episode: How Biden Lost Americans’ Faith in Immigration

Date: December 15, 2025
Host: Natalie Kitroeff (New York Times)
Guest: Chris Flavell (Reporter, New York Times)
Duration (excluding ads): ~24 minutes

Overview

This episode provides a rich, retrospective analysis of how President Joe Biden’s approach to immigration during his presidency (2021-2025) contributed to a dramatic shift in public opinion and played a key role in the Democratic Party’s 2024 election loss. NYT journalist Chris Flavell, after months of reporting and interviews with more than 30 former Biden administration officials, details how the administration underestimated and mishandled the immigration crisis, the lasting political fallout, and how Democrats remain divided on a path forward.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Revisit Biden’s Immigration Legacy Now?

• Context mirrors 2020: With Trump back in the White House and a renewed aggressive stance on immigration, Democrats are once more scrambling for a clear, winning position on the border.
  • “This moment looks a whole lot like 2020...Trump in the White House enacting really aggressive strategies...Democrats as a party trying to figure out what position to take.” (Chris, 04:28)
• Question remains unresolved: What do Americans want from the border, and what should Democrats stand for?

2. Early Warnings Ignored

• 2020 memo: Biden’s own advisors warned that his welcoming rhetoric, combined with pandemic pressures and pent-up migration demand, could trigger “chaos and a humanitarian crisis” (06:11–07:41).

• Biden and Harris were briefed… and dismissed the caution: Despite grasping the risks during a post-election briefing, the administration chose not to change course.

  “These warnings did not go over well with Biden’s campaign team…they wound up ignoring those recommendations to change course.”
  — Chris Flavell (07:29)

3. Why Biden Chose His Approach

• Political climate: The backdrop was the racial reckoning of Black Lives Matter (2020), making a tough border stance politically untenable for Democrats.

• Moral imperative: Early staff choices reflected a focus on aiding asylum seekers over enforcement.

• Biden’s own stance was vague: Multiple insiders felt he lacked firm convictions on immigration, only that he “didn’t like talking about this issue” (08:59–09:59).

  “None of them felt like they really understood what Biden’s own views were...one person told me Biden’s body language changed...you could tell he was uncomfortable when talking about migration.”
  — Chris Flavell (09:21)

4. Implementing Campaign Promises—And the Fallout

• Day-One reversals: In office, Biden immediately rolled back signature Trump-era policies—stopped border wall construction, reduced arrests and deportations, ended Remain in Mexico, etc. (10:24–11:04).
• Surge and miscalculation:

  • Planners modelled for “worst Trump month” numbers, which were grossly exceeded by March 2021. The crossings kept rising, not falling (11:13–12:23).

    “Even the people whose job was to think ‘how bad could it be’...were incredibly mistaken.”
    — Chris Flavell (12:09)

5. White House Paralysis and Lack of Clear Leadership

• No one “driving the bus”: No single official was granted authority, and warring internal factions stalled decisive action (13:14–14:22).
• Strategy was silence:
  • The hope: by not talking about the migration surge, public interest would fade as in 2014 or the early Trump period.
  • This time, the surge didn’t relent and anxiety grew (14:38–15:20).

6. Public Sentiment Shifts & Political Miscalculation

• Polls showed rising anxiety about “illegal immigration.”
  • The administration feared tightening enforcement would alienate Latino voters and believed non-border-state Americans wouldn’t care (15:32–16:39).
• Texas upends the calculation:

  • In April 2022, Gov. Greg Abbott’s busing campaign sends migrants to blue cities, creating local emergencies and national headlines, and marks a “turning point” for the administration (18:55–20:37).

    “Internally...Abbott’s campaign was a turning point where people who worked for the administration began to think…’We actually have lost this debate.’”
    — Chris Flavell (20:17)

7. Too Little, Too Late—Belated Policy Shifts

• 2023 attempts:
  • Select visa programs (for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans).
  • Introduction of CBP-1 app to manage border crossings.
  • Neither curbed record numbers—up to 250,000 crossings/month by late 2023 (20:41–21:59).
• Later Aggressive Action:
  • Negotiated with Mexico to close its southern border.
  • Sought bipartisan Senate bills to allow border closure to asylum seekers.
  • With Congressional reform failing, Biden finally used executive authority (June 2024) to sharply restrict asylum at the U.S. border—numbers plummeted immediately (22:03–23:46).
• But… too late for political benefit.
  • “That idea, that perception that Biden and Democrats favor open borders, is really cemented by this point.” (24:44)
  • The White House “did not go out and say, look what we did...that skittishness remained” (25:09).

8. Long-Term Political Impact

• Rightward shift in public opinion:

  • Intense unease, “lingering anger,” and Democrats still unsure how to respond.
  • Even now, no consensus within the party on how to move forward without repeating Biden’s mistakes or adopting Trump’s severity (25:37–27:27).

• A New Political Stalemate:

  • Both parties squeezed between extremes—either “open border” punitiveness, or harsh crackdowns.
  • The room for new, more permissive immigration ideas appears “closed for the foreseeable future” (28:07).

  “Maybe the real legacy of Joe Biden on immigration is that people’s willingness to give immigrants the benefit of the doubt—or even give Democrats the benefit of the doubt—is, at least for now, gone.”
  — Chris Flavell (29:04)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On the foreseen crisis:

“That memo said: ‘At the US border, a potential surge could create chaos and a humanitarian crisis, overwhelm processing capacities, and imperil the agenda of the new administration.’ These warnings did not go over well…”
(Chris Flavell, 07:08)

On Biden’s discomfort:

“There was a sense that he just didn’t like talking about this issue...you could tell he was uncomfortable when he was talking about migration.”
(Chris Flavell, 09:59)

On the lack of leadership:

“One of the themes from my reporting was nobody was driving the bus.”
(Chris Flavell, 13:14)

On Texas’s political gambit:

“This campaign by Abbott was described to me as a turning point...we actually have lost this debate.”
(Chris Flavell, 20:17)

On the implications for the future:

“Maybe the real legacy ... is that people’s willingness to give immigrants the benefit of the doubt, or even give Democrats the benefit of the doubt, is, at least for now, gone.”
(Chris Flavell, 29:04)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [03:11–04:28] — Framing: Why revisit immigration policy now?
• [06:11–07:41] — Early warning memo and its dismissal
• [08:02–09:59] — Biden's motivations, discomfort, and staff perspectives
• [10:24–11:04] — Day-One executive actions reversing Trump policies
• [11:13–12:23] — Border surge; failed predictions
• [13:14–14:22] — Lack of decision-making leadership in the White House
• [18:55–20:37] — Abbott’s busing campaign shifts public debate
• [21:59–23:46] — Escalating actions: dealing with border chaos, failed reform, delayed executive order
• [24:44–25:37] — Why voters’ minds didn’t change
• [26:19–27:00] — Lasting shift in public opinion
• [27:27–29:04] — The unresolved future for Democratic immigration policy

Conclusion

The episode offers a sobering look at a presidency defined—and ultimately derailed—by an unwillingness to heed early warnings, a muddled internal process, and the inability to find a politically viable, decisive approach to the border. The Democratic Party remains adrift on immigration, with scars from both the Biden years and the resurgent Trump administration shaping the contours of the debate for years to come.

For listeners seeking to understand the origins and ramifications of the current immigration and political crisis in America, this episode is essential.