The Daily – "How Trump Fares in a Major New Poll"

Air Date: September 30, 2025

Host: Natalie Kitroeff (with analysts Nate Cohn and contributions from voters) Podcast: The New York Times

Episode Overview

This episode breaks down the results of a major new New York Times poll exploring public opinion on President Trump's second term, eight months in. Host Natalie Kitroeff interviews polling analyst Nate Cohn, discussing approval ratings, specific policy issues like immigration, crime, and the economy, and revealing a striking new trend: Americans now cite the health of democracy and political division as the nation's foremost problems, even more than the economy. The episode is enriched with direct quotes from diverse voters and data-driven analysis, providing a nuanced portrait of a country deeply concerned by its own politics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Stability in Trump’s Approval Despite Turbulence

• Poll Findings: Despite sweeping policy changes, record tariffs, military deployments, and political violence, Trump’s overall approval rating remains nearly unchanged since April, now at 43%. The Democrats hold a 2-point edge in the Congressional midterms, compared to 3 points in April.
  • Nate Cohn: “Despite all that’s transpired over the last five or six months, Trump’s approval rating is 1 point different than it was in April. It’s at 43% now.” [03:13]
• Interpretation: Trump’s base stays loyal; those opposed to him remain largely unchanged. The country appears to have “settled out” in their opinions, according to Nate Cohn.

2. Public Opinion on Immigration

• Mixed Feelings:
  • Many support the goals of Trump’s immigration agenda (deporting undocumented immigrants), but a majority find the methods “unfair” and some actions excessive.
  • Poll participant: “He’s doing a good job. But the one thing I wish that he would do is create some type of program where the people that are already here start a process where you could get legalization... I wish I hadn’t voted for him.” [01:37]
  • Nate Cohn: “Voters disapprove of his handling of immigration, and they think he’s gone too far. […] Most voters thought [the deportation process] was unfair.” [06:46]

3. Use of Military in American Cities

• Widespread Disapproval:
  • 53% say Trump went “too far” in deploying the National Guard domestically.
  • “More people were concerned that the president could use the National Guard to intimidate his political opponents than were concerned that crime would spiral out of control without the National Guard.” [07:48]
  • Despite this, crime is the issue on which Trump scores highest, though still not a majority approval.

4. The Economy: Trump’s Lost Strength

• Voters’ View: Only 26% say the economy is good; 45% believe Trump has worsened it. His economic approval sits at around 44%.
  • Nate Cohn: “In his first term and his reelection campaign, the economy was a big strength, and it’s not a big strength for him right now.” [10:24–10:54]
• Midterm Implications: Democrats are gaining among young and non-white voters, but not enough for a landslide. “I don’t see any evidence that voters are looking to buy what the Democrats are selling either.” [13:44]

5. New Top Concern: Political Division & Dysfunction

• Striking Shift: For the first time, more Americans list “our politics” — polarization, distrust, threat to democracy — as the country’s biggest problem, outpacing economic concerns (36% vs. 21%).
  • Voter: “I think our political division... Nobody’s listening to anybody... It frightens me when people label people... I think he’s bringing the country very close to civil war.” [16:55]
  • Nate Cohn: “In this poll, for the first time, the most common answers were about our politics.” [16:25]
• Catalyst: The assassination of Charlie Kirk and a looming government shutdown place politics top-of-mind.

6. Surging Pessimism About American Democracy

• Two to One Margin: 64% of voters say the U.S. is now “too divided politically to solve our problems,” up from 40% in 2020.
  • Nate Cohn: “We’ve gone in just the last five years from being maybe not exactly optimistic, but perhaps cautiously optimistic that we can still solve our problems to pretty resoundingly being pessimistic.” [21:07]
• Potential Consequences: Only 18% believe U.S. democracy “isn’t strong enough to survive the Trump years,” but nearly a third think America could fail as a country.
  • “Americans are getting more concerned about the political system itself, but they haven’t yet become convinced that a calamity is right around the corner yet either.” [22:27]

7. Link Between Pessimism and Political Extremism

• No Major Groundswell for Violence: Despite deep pessimism, over 80% still view the “other side” as fellow Americans, not enemies. But tolerance for extreme policies is rising.
  • Nate Cohn: “What I do see is a growing share of Americans who are willing to support more and more extreme policies to try and address what they see as deeper and deeper problems with society. I think you can even interpret the continued political support for Trump in that light.” [26:14]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Trump’s Stability

• Nate Cohn: “The voters who he still had with him in April were mostly strongly Republican-leaning voters, voters who backed him in 2016 and 2020 and 2024... much of what he has done those voters are happy with him about, and they’ve stuck by his side.” [04:12]

On Political Fatigue

• Poll participant: “We need to tone down the rhetoric. We need to work to find common ground and work through the differences in opinions.” [02:16]

On National Division

• Multiple Participants:
  • “It’s division amongst the nation, the people. Nobody’s listening to anybody on either side. People can’t share ideas and opinions without being targeted by violence.” [16:55]
  • “We need to have the country to come together. And I just, I don’t know. I don’t know if you know, I don’t know if you’re going to be able to do that." [17:30]

On Historical Comparison

• Nate Cohn: “In the era of modern polling... Americans have basically been able to take for granted... that democracy would endure. My guess is that such a large share of the public hasn’t had these attitudes before... the fact that people haven’t even thought to ask is what’s ultimately telling.” [25:01]

On Extreme Politics

• Nate Cohn: “I don’t see a groundswell of people who are inclined to pursue political violence... What I do see is a growing share... willing to support more and more extreme policies... I think you can even interpret the continued political support for Trump in that light.” [26:14]

Key Data Points (with Timestamps)

| Topic | Figure/Insight | Speaker | Timestamp | |------------------------|-------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------| | Trump Approval | 43% (virtually unchanged) | Nate Cohn | 03:13 | | Congress Preference | Dems +2 (vs +3 in April) | Nate Cohn | 03:13 | | Economy is “Good” | 26% | Nate Cohn | 10:24 | | Trump makes economy worse | 45% | Nate Cohn | 10:24 | | National Guard “too far”| 53% agree | Nate Cohn | 07:48 | | Top Issue: Politics | 36% list political division | Nate Cohn | 16:25 | | Top Issue: Economy | 21% list economy | Nate Cohn | 18:09 | | Country is “too divided”| 64% | Nate Cohn | 20:44 | | Worried democracy won’t survive | 18% | Nate Cohn | 22:27 | | America as failed state| 31% | Nate Cohn | 22:27 | | See “other side” as Americans | 80%+ | Nate Cohn | 26:12 |

Important Segments (with Timestamps)

• Voters react to Trump’s second term so far: [00:52]–[02:06]
• Poll findings and stability discussion: [03:13]–[04:12]
• Immigration and fairness debate: [05:16]–[07:24]
• Deploying National Guard & crime: [07:24]–[09:34]
• Economic perceptions and impact: [10:14]–[12:04]
• Midterms and partisan alignment: [12:04]–[13:44]
• Top issue is now political system dysfunction: [16:15]–[19:33]
• Surge in pessimism about fixing problems: [20:43]–[22:27]
• Discussion on the dangers of pessimism & extremism: [25:01]–[27:33]

Summary

The poll reveals a U.S. political climate marked by entrenched divisions, waning optimism about solving national problems, and a stable but relatively low level of support for President Trump despite his aggressive and sometimes controversial policies. The economy, once Trump’s strength, is now a liability, and the public's deepest anxieties have shifted from material concerns to the very health of the nation’s democracy. While the bulk of Americans do not appear ready to abandon democratic norms or resort to political violence, their rising acceptance of more extreme policies, rooted in frustration and fear, bodes for an era of growing volatility. Democrats are gaining but have yet to seize the moment with solutions compelling enough to win back the disillusioned.

The episode paints a picture of a country “muddling through,” deeply unsettled by its politics but unclear on a path forward.

For further detail, refer to timestamps above for specific segments and direct quotes.