Inside the Operation to Take Down Mexico’s Biggest Drug Lord

Summary

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The Daily (NYT)

Episode: Inside the Operation to Take Down Mexico’s Biggest Drug Lord

Date: February 26, 2026
Host: Natalie Kitroeff
Guests: Maria Abi Habib and Jack Nikas

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Episode Overview

This episode delves into the dramatic operation that led to the death of El Mencho, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel—the world’s most notorious drug lord. The discussion explores El Mencho’s rise from impoverished beginnings to cartel kingpin, the significance of his takedown, the influences of U.S. political pressure (particularly from President Trump), and the potential implications for Mexico’s ongoing struggle against cartel violence and corruption.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Significance of El Mencho's Capture

• The Takedown:

  • El Mencho was "arguably the single biggest criminal in the world, the most wanted man" ([02:11], Jack).
  • Led the most powerful cartel in Mexico—possibly globally—with deep government connections.
  • His capture, coming months before the World Cup in Mexico, could spark a "new chapter of violence" ([02:52], Jack).

• A Major Test for Mexico:

  • "Mexico security forces tested in a way that we’ve never seen before." ([02:59], Maria)

2. El Mencho’s Rise to Power

• Humble Beginnings:

  • Born in rural poverty in Michoacán, dropped out of school, worked in avocado fields ([03:46], Maria).
  • Crossed into the U.S., became involved in drug operations, was repeatedly deported.

• Becoming a Cartel Leader:

  • Joined and ascended Millenio Cartel ranks by marrying the leader’s daughter.
  • "A Romeo and Juliet story, but filled with heroin and meth..." ([05:37], Maria)
  • Brutal internal conflicts led to his split, founding the "Jalisco New Generation Cartel" ([06:32], Maria).

• Notorious Methods:

  • Required new recruits to commit acts of extreme violence, including reports of cannibalism ([07:22], Maria).

3. Cartel’s Expansion and Business Diversification

• Beyond Drugs:

  • Cartel infiltrated avocado industry, hotel business, timeshare scams, illegal mining ([08:22], Maria).
  • “They have their tentacles in the state governments and in the local governments... when a hurricane hits, sometimes the Jalisco cartel are the ones providing aid.” ([09:53], Jack)

• Fortune-500 Cartel:

  • Compared to a "Fortune 500 company with a diverse set of businesses" ([09:53], Jack), but also as a de facto state actor.

4. Government Response: Inaction, Complicity, & Difficulty

• Why Was Nothing Done Sooner?

  • El Mencho’s elusiveness: "He was not on the phone... extremely disciplined" ([10:56], Jack).
  • Mexican government had attempted captures—e.g., 2012 and 2015—but failed due to cartel’s organized response.

• Barriers:

  • Complicity and corruption: "Cartel had tentacles in governments across the nation" ([10:56], Jack).
  • U.S. law enforcement involved, but hindered by leaks and Mexican officials tipping off the cartel ([12:17], Maria).

5. The Operation: How El Mencho Was Caught

• The Raid:

  • Mexican special forces raided a ranch house near Guadalajara; intense firefight ensued ([13:32], Jack).
  • El Mencho, wounded, was airlifted but died en route to hospital ([14:34], Jack).

• Intelligence Breakthrough:

  • Tracked via an associate of one of his lovers—"they got him by following his girlfriend" ([15:10], Natalie/Jack).
  • U.S. intelligence (CIA) provided support—no American boots on the ground.

6. The Fallout: Cartel’s Violent Response

• Immediate Violence:

  • "Massive plumes of smoke darkened the skies" ([15:54], Maria); cars, banks, and supermarkets burned across at least 20 states; 25 National Guard killed.
  • "It was really a day of mayhem." ([15:52], Jack)

• Rapid De-escalation:

  • Surprisingly, "after Sunday, things really have calmed down... Mexico is kind of back to normal" ([16:02], Jack).

7. U.S. Political Pressure & Mexico’s Strategic Calculus

• Trump’s Threats:

  • President Trump has increased pressure, even threatening unilateral U.S. military strikes if Mexico doesn’t act ([20:04], Jack).
  • President Sheinbaum feels this is "a red line that cannot be crossed" and is eager to show Mexico can handle its own problems.

• Political Cover:

  • Trump’s threats "[give] her political cover to do what she may want to do anyway" ([22:48], Natalie).
  • "That is exactly the theory we're hearing... she can go back to her political party and say, I don't have any choice." ([23:28], Jack)

• Narcos’ Calculus:

  • Cartel violence de-escalated partly out of fear of U.S. intervention—"They gave the same reason that the government officials are giving, which is the capture of Maduro changed the game for us." ([24:51], Jack)

8. What’s Next: Cartel Succession, Fracture, and the Long War

• Succession Struggle:

  • With no clear family heir, a group of 4–5 commanders may fight for control—risk of the cartel fracturing and sparking more violence ([26:11], Maria).

• The Long Road Ahead:

  • Restoring state authority is "not a one-year project. It is a ten-year project, maybe more." ([27:44], Maria)
  • True progress requires tackling governmental corruption, not just focusing on cartel leaders ([28:27], Jack).

• U.S. Goalposts:

  • Trump remains unsatisfied: "Less than 24 hours after the Mexican government killed El Mencho... Trump posted online, quote, 'Mexico must step up their efforts on cartel and drugs.'" ([29:44], Jack)
  • Ongoing pressure may help, but risks inflaming the situation if it escalates to unilateral action ([31:01], Jack).

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Notable Quotes

• On El Mencho’s stature:
  "He was arguably the single biggest criminal in the world... It's hard to overstate the importance and significance of this figure."
  — Jack Nikas [02:11]

• On cartel violence:
  "There were reports of cannibalism. You're a recruit, and guess what? You've got to eat somebody. Somebody who had betrayed the cartel."
  — Maria Abi Habib [07:22]

• On the cartel as a shadow state:
  "They are also, in a way, a state actor. They have their tentacles in the state governments and in the local governments across the country..."
  — Jack Nikas [09:53]

• On the operation to capture El Mencho:
  "It came down to his lover, but it also appears there was important information coming from the CIA."
  — Jack Nikas [15:12]

• On Trump’s pressure:
  "He does not want any more of the same excuses. He's saying the Mexican government must solve its cartel problems or the US military will do it."
  — Jack Nikas [20:04]

• On enduring challenge:
  "It is a day to day battle. It is not a one year project. It is a ten year project, maybe more."
  — Maria Abi Habib [27:44]

• On the moving U.S. goalposts:
  "'Less than 24 hours after the Mexican government killed El Mencho... Trump posted online, quote, 'Mexico must step up their efforts on cartel and drugs.'"
  — Jack Nikas [29:44]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• El Mencho's significance and cartel background: [02:11]–[09:39]
• Cartel business diversification, corruption: [09:09]–[10:56]
• Government inaction, challenges to capture: [10:56]–[13:09]
• Operation breakdown—raid and aftermath: [13:32]–[15:27]
• Cartel’s violent response: [15:52]–[16:02]
• Global and political context—Trump’s influence: [17:40]–[24:18]
• Cartel succession and war outlook: [26:11]–[27:44]
• Ten-year project and obstacles to reform: [27:44]–[30:51]

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Tone and Style

As in all episodes of The Daily, the conversation is brisk but nuanced, with reporters offering sharp analysis, vivid storytelling, and candid assessments of both violence and political intrigue. There is an undercurrent of urgency—reflecting the stakes for both Mexico and the U.S.—tinged with cautious realism about the daunting road ahead. The episode mixes narrative, investigative detail, and geopolitical framing while keeping a conversational, accessible tone.

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Transcript

[Maria Abi Habib]

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[Natalie Kitroeff]

from the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroweff. This is the Daily. When the Mexican military captured and killed the country's top drug lord, it revealed how much President Trump's growing pressure is forcing the country to take on the cartels. Today, my colleagues Maria Abi Habib and Jack Nikas on the operation to take down that drug lord El Mencho, and whether Mexico has what it takes to win a war on some of the most powerful criminals in the world. It's Thursday, february 26th. Maria Jack, wonderful to have you both on the show. 3 Mexico City Bureau chiefs.

[Jack Nikas]

I'm sitting in your old office, Natalie.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

JACK Current. MARIA Former. Natalie Former. We all were in Latin America as correspondents together. Maria, you and I both covered the cartels at the same time and did some intense reporting on that, to put it lightly. So we have you here because the news that Mexico had taken out El Mencho, the head of the Jalisco cartel, was massive. And we've learned in the days since that the Trump administration played a big part in that. So level set for us. Why is the takedown of this one cartel leader such a big deal?

[Jack Nikas]

Well, El Mencho was arguably the single biggest criminal in the world. He was arguably the most wanted man in the world, led the biggest cartel in Mexico. He led the biggest cartel perhaps in the world. And I know we tend to avoid using superlatives, but it's hard to overstate the importance and significance of this figure in the criminal world. And it's a really big deal that the Mexican government went after him because he had been on the run for two decades. He has ties to government figures around the Mexican government. And this is four months just before the World cup arrives, just a few hours from where he was found.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Right.

[Jack Nikas]

And this is a major move that could open a new chapter of violence in Mexico.

[Maria Abi Habib]

Yeah. I also think that at this point, this is a huge test for the Mexican government. They have never been tested like this. And the last time they tried to really take on a domestic threat like this was about 15 years ago. But that was a different cartel, which was not nearly as big, did not nearly have the geographical reach or the penchant for brutality that Jalisco cartel has. So we're going to be seeing Mexico security forces tested in a way that we've never seen before. So let's see what happens.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Okay, let's talk about El Mencho, this cartel leader. I think for a lot of listeners, he wasn't a household name. So lay out for me how El Mencho got to be the most wanted man in the world.

[Maria Abi Habib]

Well, he was born into poverty in the state of Michoacan, which is in the West. He has five brothers. He grew up kind of growing avocados, which is one of the of Michoacan. A lot of the avocados that Americans make guacamole from come from that state. He dropped out of primary school, I think about fifth grade, to work in the fields. And then by the time he was a teenager, he started to guard marijuana plantations, apparently. And then he decided that he wanted to immigrate to California. So he did so in the 1980s, apparently. He said he wanted a better life. So he moves up to San Francisco, the Bay Area, and he ends up falling back into crime, and he gets arrested by the police up there. He's about 20 at this point, and he ends up getting deported. But like the savant that he is, he decides that he's going to start changing names, and he starts crisscrossing the US Mexico border. Every time he's arrested, he gets thrown back into Mexico. He comes back by 1992, he's arrested one last time at this point in Sacramento, California, and he's arrested because he and his brother are carrying out a heroin deal. And he spends three years in prison. And so at this point, he's deported again to Mexico, and He's in his 30s, and he joins the local police.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Wow.

[Maria Abi Habib]

Yes.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Former drug dealer becomes a police officer. Kind of a wild career switch.

[Maria Abi Habib]

You know, it happens more than you would think in Mexico, because we have to remember that Mexico has corruption problems, specifically within the police.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Okay. So he becomes a police officer in a police force that is notoriously corrupt. What happens?

[Maria Abi Habib]

Well, so he kind of realizes that, well, everybody else is on the take, and I'd be a sucker not to be on the take. So he switches over, and he joins the Millennial Cartel, which at this point is very, very strong in the country's Southwest. And strategically, he realizes the way to really rise up the ranks of this cartel is to marry one of the leader's daughters. So it's a Romeo and Juliet story, but filled with heroin and meth and everything in between.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Sure. A classic.

[Maria Abi Habib]

Yeah. And so he rises through the ranks, and then in 2008 and 2009, government security forces end up arresting or killing a bunch of leaders from the Millennial Cartel.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

This is in the midst of the last time the Mexican government did a really serious push to dismantle the cartels. A war on these cartels.

[Maria Abi Habib]

Exactly. And it sets off this extremely bloody, brutal leadership fight for who becomes the head honcho of Millennial Cartel. And through sheer brute force and his ability to really embrace some of the most disgusting, gruesome, brutal acts. Who rises and ends up being on top. Well, it's El Mencho. And he spins off his forces to form an independent cartel, which is the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Emphasis on generation. Because this is a long term project. He's in it for the long haul.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

And what is the defining feature of this new group he's leading? The Jalisco Cartel?

[Maria Abi Habib]

It's his ability to or want and desire to really just be as brutal as absolutely possible. So, for instance, there were reports that his new recruits, he really needed these people to show that they would be as compliant as foot soldiers as they possibly could be, and that they were also willing to implement the levels of violence that he himself favored. So, for instance, there were reports of cannibalism. You're a recruit, and guess what? You've got to eat somebody. Somebody who had betrayed the cartel.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

So El Mencho becomes a kind of pioneer in this much more aggressive, violent way of doing business. And when I was in Mexico, it was also clear that part of his signature was also diversifying the purpose of that violence. Right. He pursued a broad range of business opportunities that went beyond just drugs.

[Maria Abi Habib]

Oh, for sure. He wants the Jalisco cartel to have a finger in every pie. So avocados, obviously something he knows very well from his days picking them when he was a kid. Guess what? If you're an avocado grower, you have to either pick avocados for his cartel or you have to give a piece of whatever you harvest that year to him. And then he expands his empire and it becomes more of, like, a conglomerate. He's not just doing drugs. He's in the hotel industry. They start bilking, you know, senior citizens from the United States to Canada from their timeshares. And also they're now involved in illegal gold mining throughout South America, which is laying ravage to rainforests across that continent.

[Jack Nikas]

I think one visual way to see the different approach of the Jalisco cartel is the map of Mexico, particularly when it's overlaid with the different cartels control. And what you see is the Jalisco Cartel really has presence across the country, and it really has conquered almost every state it has presence in. And there is widespread corruption within the states and local governments across their region to make sure that Jalisco can do what it wants without any questions.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Just talk about that. The extent of the corruption and what this group can do, it becomes incredibly powerful. Right. And rich. So that gives them resources to do this kind of work.

[Jack Nikas]

It gives them resources. It's natural for us to make the analogy that these guys are a Fortune 500 company with a diverse set of businesses. No question. They are also, in a way, a state actor. They have their tentacles in the state governments and in the local governments across the country, and that allows them to really operate unbridled. And it even means that when a hurricane hits, sometimes the Jalisco Cartel are the ones providing aid because they want to generate, you know, some goodwill with constituents. So I think it's really difficult to understand the importance of the cartels to the economy, but also to the society. They are a fact of daily life in Mexico.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Okay. Given what you've both laid out about the steady and menacing rise of this group and their power across Mexico, I think a lot of people are gonna be wondering at this point, what was the government doing this whole time that this was happening? Were they going after the Jalisco cartel in El Mencho? What was their response?

[Jack Nikas]

Well, a lot of Mexicans are wondering that as well. This certainly was a rise that wasn't just, you know, a single year. This is something that played out over 15 or more years. The reality is El Mencho was very elusive. He basically, you know, according to a senior government official I just spoke to, he really basically just used human messengers. He was not on the phone. He did not use radio. He was extremely disciplined. And as a result, that allowed him to elude capture for so long. But it wasn't like they didn't almost catch him a few Times. So in 2012, they did go after him, but his followers, you know, his. His gunman basically robbed a bunch of cars, and they set them on fire and set up these roadblocks across the city, and that allowed El Mencho to escape. In 2015, they also nearly caught El Mencho, but his gunman literally shot down a Mexican military helicopter killing three soldiers. And he got away then as well. But over the past decade, there really haven't been many close calls. And I think that raises the question of why not. I think that is in part because of incompetence by the Mexican authorities, but it is also in part because of complicity. As we noted, this cartel had tentacles in governments across the nation. And that complicates that effort when you've got policemen and politicians tipping them off.

[Maria Abi Habib]

Yeah. And it also should be said that a lot of these attempts to kill El Mencho were with the United States. Kill or capture, really. And, you know, several American law enforcement had said to me and others on our team that A, it was very difficult to catch him because he was just that good. And then B, there was also this complicity with the Mexican government to an extent where sometimes they were just tipped off and he was able to scurry away.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

So it's both difficult for the Mexican government to fend off the pull of this multi billion dollar corporation, which is the Jalisco Cartel. And at the same time, there's been a hesitance or reluctance to go at them head on because it means going up against a whole system that perpetuates their power.

[Jack Nikas]

Right. And I think that's precisely why the cartels have become such an intractable problem for Mexico.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

And it's what makes it even more shocking that the Mexican government was able to go up against El Mencho this time and actually get him. So, Jack, walk me through how that operation went down.

[Jack Nikas]

So what we know is that on Sunday morning, Mexican special forces in the Mexican army raided a rental home in a wooded, picturesque ranch town about two hours south of Guadalajara in Jalisco. And they were backed by six military helicopters. And they got into a very intense firefight with El Mencho and his men. Mencho slipped out the back and tried to escape with at least two bodyguards. And eventually Mexican forces then found him hiding in the brush. They continued to engage in crossfire with Mencho and his bodyguards. They shot Mencho and his bodyguards. They were mortally wounded. They then put El Mencho and his two other bodyguards on a helicopter for air transport to a hospital. And on the way, we are told, they died. And that was it. It was certainly bloody, it was certainly violent, but government officials actually told me that it was better than they expected.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

And, Jack, what do we know about the intelligence that led the operation to be successful in this case?

[Jack Nikas]

Well, as we noted, El Mencha was an incredibly elusive figure because he was incredibly disciplined.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Right.

[Jack Nikas]

However, it appears that he got a little sloppy. The Mexican government says that they identified a quote, unquote, close associate of a woman who was one of El Mencho's lovers. And they watched this man drop this woman off at the home where El Mencho was staying. And at that point, they were somehow able to confirm that El Mencho was home.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Amazing. They got him by following his girlfriend.

[Jack Nikas]

Yes. It came down to his lover, but it also appears that there was important information coming from the CIA. There was no American boots on the ground. This was a Mexican law enforcement operation. But some of the intelligence that fed it came from the United States.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Got it. And once El Mencho's death is confirmed, we saw the country erupt in flames as the cartel is responding on the streets. Cartel members loyal to El Mencho, we understand, were lighting things on fire, blocking roads. We heard of American tourists kind of sheltering in place in their hotels. Just describe what we were seeing in Mexico.

[Jack Nikas]

This was really a day of mayhem.

[Maria Abi Habib]

Massive plumes of smoke darken the skies

[Natalie Kitroeff]

of seaside resort towns and tourist hotspots.

[Maria Abi Habib]

But locals are the most threatened.

[Jack Nikas]

And it was one of the biggest shows of force and violence by a cartel in recent Mexican history. We were actually terrified, and we saw the people running down the streets, running from the flames and stuff and the fire, And it actually showed the breadth of the organization that El Mencho had built, because it wasn't just in Jalisco, but it was from coast to coast in at least 20 states across the nation. There was, you know, cars on fire, blocked roads, banks on fire, supermarkets on fire, and also shootings. You know, there was at least 25 members of the National Guard who were killed as part of some of this mayhem on Sunday. And that was, I think, an explosion of rage and also power from this Jalisco cartel. But it also was a short burst of violence. You know, after Sunday, things really have calmed down. And, you know, by midweek, the Mexican government says, you know, all roads are clear, all the fires are put out, and there really are no shelter in place, orders to speak of? And so Mexico is kind of back to normal.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Right. And now the question seems to be, what happens next? Does the government decide to keep pushing on an offensive against the Jalisco cartel, given the stakes and the pressure the government is under from the United States, from the Trump administration?

[Jack Nikas]

That's exactly the question. Because while things are back to normal, the country is still very much on edge because Trump is still pressuring the Mexican government to do more. And you just suddenly have a beheaded cartel that may now be fighting for territory and power.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

We'll be right.

[Maria Abi Habib]

Foreign.

[Jack Nikas]

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[Deborah Kamin]

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[Maria Abi Habib]

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[Jack Nikas]

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[Deborah Kamin]

I go to games always doing the

[Jack Nikas]

mini, doing the wordle. I loved how much content it exposed me to things that I never would

[Maria Abi Habib]

have thought to turn to a news app for.

[Jack Nikas]

This app is essential.

[Maria Abi Habib]

The New York Times app.

[Deborah Kamin]

All of the Times all in one place. Download it [e-mail] app

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Marie and Jack I think one of the biggest questions hanging over all this is just given how long this cartel's power has been steadily expanding and how well known the problem of it. It has been, why did the Mexican government do this at this moment? Why now?

[Jack Nikas]

For one, the Mexican authorities had a piece of very actionable intelligence and so an opportunity was created and they took advantage of it. But this also comes amid the backdrop of a very aggressive offensive against the cartels by President Sheinbaum. She basically has made clear that she wants to take a very different tact from her predecessor to go after the cartels. And then there also is one other major difference, and that is Donald J. Trump. What we have in Mexico right now is a sustained pressure campaign from the White House to do more against the cartels. He does not want any more of the same excuses. He is saying the Mexican government must solve its cartel problems or the US Military will do it. And that has meant repeated and public threats of a unilateral US Military strike against the cartels, which President Sheinbaum has said is a red line that cannot be crossed. And so instead, what we're seeing is the Mexican government doing everything it can to show it can handle the problem itself.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Right. And just say how the threat of the US Military coming in and doing a strike in Mexico is perceived in the country and by the government specifically.

[Jack Nikas]

Well, you have to remember that California used to be Mexico. The history between these two countries has not always been so rosy. And so there is not a lot of eagerness for the US Military to come in with hellfire missiles and basically try to attack the cartels that way, because, A, there's concerns about sovereignty, and B, there's concerns about collateral damage and the number of civilians that can be killed. So therefore, there is a real unease with what Trump is threatening. And there's also is a real commitment by the Mexican government now to try to show that it can handle the problem itself.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

And it should be said this isn't just an idle threat that Trump is making at this point. Right. This is a president who has literally just gone into Venezuela and ousted the president by force with a military operation. So it feels like what the Mexican government is dealing with at this point isn't just rhetoric. It's actually a real possibility.

[Maria Abi Habib]

Oh, yes, apparently from somebody I speak to who's in touch with her inner circle. It's what keeps President Sheinbaum up at night. Like, she knows that this could very well be the end of her popular support, and her party, the Morena Party, is filled with sharks. And so if there is some sort of U.S. unilateral action, that could very well spell the end of her power within that party.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

So we have this picture of a Mexican president, Claudia Sheinbaum, who's under immense pressure to take action. But at the same time, she is someone who, as you've said, has already seemed to be more willing to confront the cartels than other Mexican leaders. And so I wonder whether it's possible that the pressure from Trump actually may, in a sense, be giving her political cover to do what she may want to do anyway. Like, maybe she would have faced some resistance from all these politicians who are in bed with the cartels. Now she can point to Trump and say, look, I have no choice.

[Jack Nikas]

That is exactly the theory we're hearing from a lot of folks across Mexico who study this, that basically Shane Bomb wanted to go after the cartels, but going after the cartels in Mexico, with the political structure that exists with the corruption that exists within the Mexican government, from the federal to the local level is very difficult. But when you the President of the United States saying, you better do this or we will invade, that changes the calculus. She can go back to her political party and say, I don't have any choice. I'm going after El Mencho. So officials aren't saying outright that this is giving them political cover, even off the record. They are saying that they're doing this because it's good for Mexico. But when those conversations do go deeper and when you speak to more people, there is really an acknowledgment that. That the Trump effect is real.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Jack, you said that the violence in response to El Mencho's killing died down quite quickly. And I wanna ask about that, because that was actually one of the most surprising things to me, that the violent response from the cartel didn't last longer. And I wonder if you think it's possible that the cartel moderated their response to their leader's death because they worried that making the country look too out of control might give Donald Trump an excuse to intervene, which would be devastating for them.

[Jack Nikas]

Yes. So it was surprising that the violence died down that quickly, in large part because we haven't seen it die down like that in other instances of the top leaders getting captured or killed. And so I think your theory is certainly a valid one, because we have already made clear here that President Shane Bomb is worried about a strike from Donald Trump. Let's be clear, the narcos are also worried. You know, our colleague Paulina Villegas and I just got back from Sinaloa, where we met with multiple narcos, and they were very worried. And it also they gave the same reason that the government officials are giving, which is the capture of Maduro changed the game for us. They now are worried themselves that they may be on the receiving end of a Hellfire missile. And so that has to be changing the calculus of the criminal organizations in Mexico about how they go about their business, how they carry out revenge like this, and how they make a scene, because in some ways, they're trying to run a business. When you're trying to run a business, you kind of need to keep your head down and sell your drugs.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Given that, let's talk about what this capture means for the cartel that El Mencho ran moving forward. What's the upshot for this multi billion dollar organization? How big of a blow is this for them?

[Maria Abi Habib]

Well, it depends on whether or not the commanders who were under El Mencho can Agree amongst themselves a clear, clean path to succession. Oftentimes the cleanest form of succession is within the family. But Mencho didn't have a lot of kin who could take over. He has four to five commanders who could be his successors. If they're smart, they'll go ahead and name a successor and agree. But we rarely see that happen when the head of a cartel is killed. So if the cartel cannibalizes itself from within because of this internal leadership, then we could see it fracture. And when it fractures, that creates mini wars all over Mexico.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Right. That battle over succession could play out across the country for months, if not years. And I think the question now is how far is the Mexican government willing to take a war on the cartels?

[Maria Abi Habib]

Yeah. And I think that, you know, American diplomats who have worked here will say, when the Mexican government wants to go after these cartels and other criminal organizations, they can do it. They are capable, they know how to do it. So Mexicans are waiting to see, is this going to be a more sustained battle to dislodge the cartels from all these different corners of Mexico and reassert government authority here or not. But it is a day to day battle. It is not a one year project. It is a ten year project, maybe more.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

I want to talk about that 10 year project, about what it would actually take to dismantle these groups. Because you've both said El Mencho, for example, has plenty of people waiting in the wings to succeed him. I mean, we have seen history shows that taking out the boss of a cartel does not automatically eliminate the entire organization underneath him. When I was in Sinaloa, I talked to cartel leaders who said, if you take me out, there's 10 more guys waiting to take my place. So what is the recipe for long term success here? For actually, as you said, Maria, dislodging these groups from the country?

[Jack Nikas]

I think that what we haven't seen from the Mexican government is addressing the corruption. The reality is the only way for this criminal group to get this powerful and this big is through the complicity of officials across the nation. And we haven't seen that level of political will yet from President Chainbaum and her party to go after the officials who really actually have already been pointed to as being corrupt. I mean, one of the most powerful senators in Mexico has been directly linked to a cartel. The former head of the Navy has been linked to a massive corruption scheme. And you can go down the list. There are many other politicians. And this is actually what we hear the US Officials really Asking for is that is when they will feel there is a sign of real progress, is when the Mexican government starts to go after the corrupt politicians that have enabled this to go on this long.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Given that this is such an intractable problem, I'm just curious if we know at what point President Trump is going to be satisfied with the progress that Mexico is making. Like, do we know if this move to take out El Mencho might have appeased Trump and bought the Mexican government some time?

[Jack Nikas]

I think Trump's goalposts are infinite, and the strongest evidence of that is that less than 24 hours after the Mexican government killed El Mencho, probably the single biggest achievement that the government has had in the cartel war in years, Trump posted online, quote, mexico must step up their efforts on cartel and drugs. And that is, I think, a clear sign that the demands aren't going to end. And probably that's the point. And possibly that's also what is necessary, because there are signs that Trump's pressure is creating a dynamic in Mexico that really hasn't existed before and perhaps is creating the environment that is necessary to finally defeat or at least really confront these massive, powerful criminal organizations in a way that the government hasn't. And I think that there are Mexicans who, while they don't want a unilateral strike from the US Government, do welcome Trump's attention to this matter and pressure on this issue.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

You're saying the goalpost moving, that could be seen as a good thing. Like, in one way, it's a bait and switch, but in another, that's kind of just how progress works.

[Jack Nikas]

Well, it could be a good thing, but I think it depends on how far it goes. If Trump is just putting consistent pressure on, and that is enabling and forcing the Mexican government to do what it needs to do to take control of the cartels. I think many Mexicans agree that is a great thing. However, if Trump ultimately says, you didn't do what I want and now I'm going to bomb you, well, I think that's a whole nother story, because that is going to destabilize the government, inflame the situation, and really throw us into the unknown.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Well, Jack, Maria, thank you both so much.

[Jack Nikas]

Thank you, Natalie. We miss you here in Mexico.

[Maria Abi Habib]

Thanks so much for having us. Foreign

[Natalie Kitroeff]

we'll be right back.

[Deborah Kamin]

This podcast is supported by better help. February is full of flowers and lots of relationship talk. But whether you're single, married, or dating, just remember you're right on time. Sometimes it feels like everyone has it all together in their love lives. But the truth is, we're all still figuring it out. Therapy can help get some outside perspective from a professional. That can lead to new understanding and a lot less pressure on yourself. And remember, you're right on time. Visit betterhelp.com newyorktimes for 10% off I'm Deborah Kamin. I'm an investigative reporter at the New York Times. This one time I was working on a particularly difficult investigation of the bad behavior in the real estate industry. I was in a meeting with my editor and she said, deborah, why is your face so white? And I just told her the truth. I said, you know, this story is really hard. And she looked at me and said, that's what we do. I think about that all the time at the New York Times. I have never encountered someone who said to me, that's too ambitious or that story is too hard. It's the contrary, I am told. You need to dig deeper. You need to keep going until we make sure we have every single fact, every single layer to tell the stories that would not be told because they are hard. And that's what's special about the New York Times. It allows our readers to understand not just what's happening, but why it's happening. If you're a subscriber, you probably have experienced that sense of understanding, and thank you for supporting this work. If you're not, you can [e-mail] subscribe

[Natalie Kitroeff]

here's what else you need to know today. The files released by the Justice Department from its investigations into Jeffrey Epstein did not include key materials related to a woman who made an accusation against President Trump, according to a review by the New York Times. Those missing materials are FBI memos summarizing the interviews that the bureau did in connection with claims made in 2019 by the woman who said she'd been sexually assaulted by Trump and Epstein decades earlier when she was a minor. An index that was publicly released indicates that the FBI did four interviews related to her claims and wrote summaries about each of them. Only one of the summaries was released, though officials haven't said why these files weren't released. But the Justice Department has told the Times that any withheld files were either privileged or duplicates, and that files may be withheld if they're part of an ongoing federal investigation. Trump has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing, and Dr. Casey Means, the Wellness Maha influencer who's President Trump's nominee to be surgeon general, testified before the Senate at her confirmation hearing on Wednesday. If confirmed she would carry the title of the nation's doctor even though she doesn't have an active medical license and she's a vocal critic of the medical establishment.

[Maria Abi Habib]

Would you encourage other mothers to have

[Natalie Kitroeff]

their children vaccinated against measles with the MMR vaccine? During the hearing, Dr. Means said that vaccines save lives, but she refused to say whether she would urge parents to vaccinate their children against the measles.

[Maria Abi Habib]

I'm supportive of vaccination. Every individual needs to talk to their doctor before putting a medication in their body.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

In one heated bag, back and forth. Dr. Means had a hard time answering a question from Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia about whether the flu vaccine was effective.

[Jack Nikas]

Do you believe that there's no evidence that there's the flu vaccine has efficacy in reducing serious injury or hospitalization? This is an easy one, doctor.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

This is an easy one. The Republican controlled Senate Health Committee seemed poised to move doctor Means nomination to the Senate floor. Today's episode was produced by Anna foley and Caitlin O'.

[Jack Nikas]

Keefe.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

It was edited by M.J. davis Lynn with help from Paige Cowett, contains music by Elisheba Etoupe, Dan Powell and Marion Lozano and was engineered by Alyssa Moss Moxley. That's it for the Daily I'm Natalie Kitroweff. See you tomorrow.

[Jack Nikas]

This podcast is supported by the American Petroleum Institute. Energy is all around today. America's natural gas and oil keeps the country moving, growing and building and makes every day a little easier. But energy demand is growing and the infrastructure built today will help secure a more affordable, reliable future. With enough energy to go around when America builds, America wins.