Podcast Summary: "Is China Beating Trump?"

The Daily | The New York Times | October 29, 2025
Host: Natalie Kitroeff
Guest: Keith Bradshaw (Beijing Correspondent)

Main Theme

This episode examines the intense escalation in the US-China trade war, focusing on China's latest retaliatory measures involving rare earth export controls and their global ramifications. The discussion unpacks whether China now has the upper hand over the Trump administration, why these moves matter, and what the future holds as President Trump prepares for high-stakes talks with President Xi Jinping.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Renewed Tensions: The State of US-China Relations

• The trade conflict, previously perceived as cooling, has reignited with China adopting "the most aggressive act of retaliation to date" ([00:52]).
• Both sides are threatening "measures bordering on economic warfare" ([02:06], Keith Bradshaw), creating a sense of urgency ahead of the leaders' meeting in South Korea.

2. Major Sticking Points in Negotiations

• US Demands:
  • Restarting Chinese purchases of US soybeans.
  • Curbing Chinese export of chemicals used in fentanyl production.
• China's Demands:
  • Lifting US semiconductor export restrictions.
  • No US interference in Taiwan.
• The Overarching Issue:
  • China's control over rare earth metals and plans to restrict access to them, intensifying the conflict ([03:54], Bradshaw).

3. China's Rare Earths 'Bazooka'

• China expanded rare earth restrictions on October 9, 2025, targeting not just direct exports, but also prohibiting the use of Chinese patents, technology, or equipment for global rare earth manufacturing ([04:16]–[05:40]).
• The rules block the movement of products containing Chinese rare earths across borders and expand the range of restricted minerals.
• Impact on global defense: Threatens Europe's ability to manufacture military systems, including support for Ukraine ([05:53], Bradshaw).

Notable Quote

"They have pointed a bazooka at the supply chains and the industrial base of the entire free world."
– Commentator/Guest ([06:19])

4. How Unprecedented Are Such Controls?

• US has restricted semiconductor exports, but China's rules combine high-tech export controls with raw material restrictions—a "high-tech restriction and... a raw material restriction, both at the same time" ([07:03]–[08:09], Bradshaw).

Notable Quote

"This is China seeking a new global level of comprehensive control... This is China trying to make sure that it controls global commerce and can turn on and off the taps."
– Keith Bradshaw ([08:16]–[08:47])

5. China's Geopolitical Strategy & Signaling

• China is "not allowing itself to be pushed around," signaling a new level of toughness in negotiations.
• Beijing has strengthened its alliances with Russia and North Korea, showing a unified front ([09:04]–[09:47], Bradshaw).

6. Global and National Security Implications

• The restrictions are "extremely damaging" to any advanced manufacturing countries—especially the US and Europe ([10:00]–[10:16]).
• US automakers, for example, face shortages in rare earth magnets needed for products like power seat motors.
• Military production is hampered: Shortages affect the supply of weapons and equipment to Ukraine, seen as a "big win for Russia" ([12:52], Bradshaw).

7. China's Simultaneous Disputes with Europe

• The EU imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs)—but left a "hybrid loophole" that China exploited by adding small gasoline engines to EVs, avoiding tariffs ([13:53]–[14:47]).
• China pressures Europe not to close this loophole and leans toward Russia on Ukraine, hoping to weaken transatlantic ties.

8. Does China Have the Upper Hand?

• Short-term: Yes, due to control over supply chains.
• Long-term dangers for China:
  • Damages reputation as a reliable supplier.
  • Multinationals searching for alternatives.
  • Risks losing foreign investment and overplaying its leverage ([15:34]–[17:12]).

Notable Quote

"China may have overplayed its hand."
– Keith Bradshaw ([17:12])

9. Has the US Overplayed Its Hand?

• US is forced into a hardline stance due to China's aggressive manufacturing expansion.
• Trump's escalations may have forced China into a corner, resulting in harsher retaliations.
• The US (and formerly the Biden administration) had no good options; any approach risked backlash ([17:32]–[19:04]).

Notable Quote

"It's like you're damned if you do, you're damned if you don't."
– Natalie Kitroeff ([19:48])

10. Effectiveness of US Policy

• Trump's tariffs dropped direct Chinese exports to the US by 20%, but China reroutes exports through third countries (e.g., Vietnam, Mexico).
• US manufacturing remains at risk without a stronger industrial base ([20:11]–[21:28]).

11. What to Expect from Trump-Xi Talks

• Look for a "dramatic announcement of temporary agreements and incremental changes" ([21:54]).
• Possible outcomes:
  • Postponement (not reversal) of some Chinese restrictions.
  • Modest Chinese soybean purchases.
  • Promises regarding fentanyl precursor chemicals.
  • Announcements likely more about optics than substance ([21:54]–[22:44]).

Notable Quote

"A narrow deal perhaps announced with great fanfare."
– Natalie Kitroeff ([22:39]) "Exactly. The two countries leaders might be able to establish a floor for the relationship here."
– Keith Bradshaw ([22:44])

Memorable Moments & Quotes (with Timestamps)

• Trade war escalation: “There's an urgency to resolving these issues.” – Keith Bradshaw ([02:06])
• China's leverage: “They have pointed a bazooka at the supply chains and the industrial base of the entire free world.” – Guest ([06:19])
• Why China’s move matters: “This is China seeking a new global level of comprehensive control.” – Bradshaw ([08:16])
• Both sides at risk: “China may have overplayed its hand.” – Bradshaw ([17:12])
• US stuck in a bind: “It's like you're damned if you do, you're damned if you don't.” – Kitroeff ([19:48])
• Negotiation outlook: “A narrow deal perhaps announced with great fanfare.” – Kitroeff ([22:39])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trade war ramping back up – [01:33]–[02:24]
• Main negotiation issues – [02:34]–[04:16]
• China’s rare earth controls explained – [04:16]–[06:04]
• Market/economic fallout and ‘bazooka’ metaphor – [06:04]–[06:28]
• How China’s approach differs from US export controls – [07:03]–[08:09]
• China’s changing geopolitical posture – [09:04]–[09:47]
• Implications for global industries – [09:47]–[10:16]
• US/EU rare earths & military supply crisis – [12:06]–[12:52]
• Europe’s parallel conflict with China over EVs – [13:53]–[14:47]
• The debate: who holds the upper hand, and for how long? – [15:34]–[17:32]
• US forced into tough choices – [17:32]–[19:48]
• China’s export rerouting, effectiveness of trade war – [20:11]–[21:28]
• What to expect from the Trump-Xi meeting – [21:54]–[23:01]

Tone and Language

• Analytical, urgent, and at times, skeptical about government strategies.
• Natalie Kitroeff guides the conversation with probing, often wryly cynical questions.
• Bradshaw delivers nuanced, in-depth explanations with clear analogies (Arab oil embargo, high-tech controls, “bazooka” metaphor).

Summary Takeaway

The episode paints a picture of a US-China trade relationship at a critical inflection point, with China wielding rare earth exports as a formidable weapon. Although China has short-term leverage, both sides face significant risks from this high-stakes standoff. The Trump administration is boxed in by policy choices; China may jeopardize its long-term economic interests. Ahead of a key meeting, expectations are set for at best an incremental, unstable truce—leaving the world braced for continued volatility.