Natalie Kitrov (3:16)

The threat of military boots on the.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (3:17)

Ground, basically meaning the involvement of US servicemen, US operatives in violent actions inside Venezuela. But it's the sense of siege that it has created in Venezuela, I think, and the expectation that this is just the first phase of a prolonged military campaign against the Maduro government.

Natalie Kitrov (3:37)

You said that the expectation is that this is the first phase of what we're seeing. So what's the next phase like? What's the sense of what the eventual end game is here?

Anatoly Kurmanaev (3:49)

So it's hard to know what is legitimate planning for next military steps and what is part of psychological warfare. We have to keep in mind that part of administration's strategy, I suppose, is to create this atmosphere and fear and tension and paranoia among the government of Nicolas Maduro and create a sort of split in his power structure. But no matter who you speak to here in Venezuela, whether it's a street seller, business, people, officials in Maduro government, it's clear to everyone that the final goal is to topple Maduro. And this dovetails with what my colleagues in Washington hearing from the sources that they're talking to, that the end game of this pressure campaign is to bring a different government in power in Venezuela.

Natalie Kitrov (4:38)

Right. Ending a regime that the US has opposed for a very long time. Just explain why that's been the case.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (4:45)

So the standoff goes back to the time of Maduro's predecessor and Manto Ugo Chavez. He was a left wing nationalist leader who became increasingly undemocratic. Hugo Chavez has packed the Supreme Court and the army with his supporters and.

Schwab Advertiser (5:08)

Introduced a new penal code that criminalizes dissent.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (5:11)

This movement became increasingly antagonistic towards the.

Natalie Kitrov (5:14)

US After Venezuela forced the US Ambassador out of the country. The United States is expelling its ambassador.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (5:27)

And used the country's oil wealth to challenge US Dominance in the region. George W. Bush, you are a donkey, Mr. Bush. Chavez struck new alliances with US adversaries. Iranian President Mohamed Ahmadinejad is visiting Venezuela. Chavez said that he's searching for a strategic relationship with Russia, with China, with Russia, with Iran. He repressed pro American opposition parties. And over time, the US has responded with gradual sanctions which were aimed at creating conditions for the opposition to win in a democratic way and change the course. But then a new day is coming in Latin America. It's coming. This all changes during Trump's first term in power. The people of Venezuela are standing for freedom and democracy and the United States of America is standing right by their side. Trump starting a so called maximum pressure campaign to drive Maduro from power. We have many options for Venezuela.

Natalie Kitrov (6:43)

This is our neighbor. This is, you know, we're all over.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (6:46)

The world and we have troops all.

Natalie Kitrov (6:48)

Over the world in places that are.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (6:50)

Very, very far away. So he recognized the country's opposition leader as the legitimate president of the country. He bans Venezuelan oil from the. He makes it extremely difficult for Venezuelan government to make any financial transactions and precipitating an economic crisis in the country which made life very difficult for more than a people, which led Maduro to dig further in, to rely more on repression, to deepen his alliances with China and Russia to hold onto power.

Natalie Kitrov (7:23)

Right. The push to oust Maduro just did not work. And the question for a long time now has been how far is the US Willing to go to get rid of Maduro for the Trump administration? Now it seems as though that threshold is changing. They seem much more willing to do something that they weren't back in 2019, which is use military force. And that's why you're saying that things seem so much different in this moment.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (7:51)

That's right. What was missing in the past was the threat of US Military action.

Natalie Kitrov (7:57)

And so how did we get here to the point where now the threat of military force is very much on the table?

Anatoly Kurmanaev (8:04)

So from a Venezuelan side, last year was a point of no return for Venezuelan democracy because Maduro went from making it very difficult for the opposition to campaign to outright making up numbers. There was a presidential election last year, huge outswell of support for the opposition led by Maria Corina Machado and her candidate. Candidates get 70% of the votes, and her activists are able to provide proof of those numbers, are able to provide evidence of real election results. This political campaign organized by Maria Corina Machada was the reason she received Nobel Prize Peace Prize. But Makinduru ignores them, produces completely different results, and uses repression to stay in power, basically challenging the opposition, the world, to do anything about them.

Natalie Kitrov (9:22)

And that's the state of play basically right. When Trump comes into office in January, Maduro has held onto power even though at this point the whole world basically believes that he has stolen in this election. So what does Trump do?

Anatoly Kurmanaev (9:36)

So initially he tries negotiating with Maduro. He sends his envoy to Caracas to start working on a deal that would in effect, deliver all of Venezuela's natural resources to the US and keep Maduro in power, at least for the time being.

Natalie Kitrov (9:52)

Did you say deliver all the natural resources of venezuela to the U.S. that's right, Natalie.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (9:57)

The reporting that we have shows that it was arguably the most far reaching attempt at resource diplomacy of Trump's tenement power. It involved shipping all of Venezuelan oil to the United States. It involved opening up all of Venezuela's oil fields and mines to US Companies. And very importantly, it involved Maduro basically breaking off the existing contracts with Chinese, Russian and Iranian companies, basically sabotaging his existing alliances in order to rebuild his relationship with the United States.

Natalie Kitrov (10:33)

That would essentially be Venezuela doing a complete 180 on its foreign policy and ceding control over its most valuable resources to the U.S. can you just explain why Maduro and his government would agree to that?

Anatoly Kurmanaev (10:48)

The biggest reason is survival. In return for these economic riches, Maduro would stay in power, or at very least his movements would would be able to stay in power or to be able to contest elections in the future. So it created an off ramp for Maduro and his top officials.

Natalie Kitrov (11:07)

This does seem like exactly the kind of transactional, extractive deal that Trump has favored in the past. You know, pay me and we'll help you out. So I assume that this seems like a pretty good offer.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (11:22)

That's right. Early this year, the momentum was definitely heading towards a deal. Venezuela started accepting deportation flights from the United States. It started releasing Americans held in Venezuela. And it seemed like we are cruising towards normalization of relations. But then Trump's Secretary of State, Marco Rubio takes center stage and everything changes.

Natalie Kitrov (11:57)

We'll be right back.

Schwab Advertiser (12:02)

We all have moments when we could have done better. Like cutting your own hair. Yikes. Or forgetting sunscreen. So now you look like a tomato. Ouch. Coulda done better. Same goes for where you invest. Level up and invest smarter with Schwab. Get market insights, education and human help when you need it. Learn more@schwab.com with real world experience across a range of industries, Deloitte helps recognize how a breakthrough in aerospace might ripple into healthcare. How an innovation in agriculture could trickle into retail or biotech or even manufacturing. Is it clairvoyance? Hardly. It's what happens when experienced multidisciplinary teams and innovative tech come together to offer clients bold new approaches. Approaches to address their unique challenges, helping them confidently navigate what's next. Deloitte together makes progress. Your home is an active investment, not a passive one. And with Rocket Mortgage, you can put your home equity to work right away. When you unlock your home equity, you unlock new doors for your family. Renovations, extensions, even buying your next property. Get started today with smarter tools and guidance from real mortgage experts. Find out how@rocketmortgage.com RocketMortgage LLC. Licensed in 50 states. Nmlsconsumeraccess.org 3030Anatoly, you told us this deal.

Natalie Kitrov (13:34)

Seemed like a go, but then Secretary of State Marco Rubio took control. So how did Rubio get in the middle of these negotiations? Exactly.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (13:43)

So he starts undermining it behind the scene. First and second. Late March, he exerts pressure to cancel permits for US Companies operating in Venezuela. He scraps these licenses, dealing a major blow to Venezuelan economy. And then in June, Rubio uses his connections in the South Florida Republican Party to convince Trump that Cuban American congressman from South Florida will not support his big spending bill if a deal with Maduro goes forward.

Natalie Kitrov (14:19)

The bbb. The Big Beautiful bill.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (14:21)

Correct, The Big Beautiful bill.

Natalie Kitrov (14:23)

It's interesting. While one side of the Trump administration is trying to negotiate this deal with Maduro, here you have Marco Rubio actively undermining the strategy at every turn. Why?

Anatoly Kurmanaev (14:35)

That's right. For Rubio, it's personal. Marco Rubio is the son of Cuban immigrants who fled communism regime on the islands and became part of this large community of Cuban Americans in South Florida who view Latin America through the prism of Cuban influence in the region. And they see getting rid of Maduro as a crucial step towards ending dictatorship in the country that they left, in the country that their parents or grandparents have left. And throughout his political career, Rubio has rejected negotiations with Chavez, with Maduro, and for him, the main goal has always been to see Maduro on. And this time, Rubio has a plan that he can present as the moral imperative.

Natalie Kitrov (15:24)

And so what is the plan that he presents?

Anatoly Kurmanaev (15:28)

He is supporting Maria Corina Machado, the opposition politician who won elections in Venezuela last year. In the view of Marco Rubio and his supporters, they are working to restore democracy in Venezuela and to put legitimate president in power. But throughout Trump's terms, it's been very clear that the issues of democracy and human rights do not carry much cache with him. So Rubio had to look for another weapon. He needed to present something to Trump that would catch his ear and would outweigh the economic benefits of working with Maduro. And he found the answer in drugs. Trump has, you know, spoke repeatedly about the drug epidemic, you know, the fentanyl crisis in the US he has threatened Mexican cartels. He has threatened military actions against cartels in Mexico. So Marco Rubio changes tack. Maduro, oh, they call him a dictator because he is and all that. He's not a government official. What he is is the head of a drug trafficking logistics organization. A cartel. The cartel of the Suns. He starts to frame Venezuelan government as a drug cartel. And I've seen a lot of this reporting, and it's fake reporting. And I'll tell you why. It says that somehow Venezuela is not involved in the drug trade because the UN Says they're not involved in the eu. I don't. The un I don't care what the UN Says. The UN doesn't know what they're talking about. He flips the Venezuelan issue from being a struggle over democracy and human rights towards it being a struggle against drugs. Nicolas Maduro is an indicted drug trafficker in the United States, and he's a fugitive of American justice. He makes Maduro government part of America's war against drugs. And this leads to an escalation. Rubio designates basically Maduro's entire regime as a narco terrorist cartel. And he supports sending all this military hardware into the region to threaten Maduro. And ultimately this leads to. To the strikes on the boats of alleged drug traffickers off Venezuela's coast.

Natalie Kitrov (17:44)

And we've covered this on the show. You know, it's still the case that the Trump administration has not actually presented any strong evidence that Maduro is a cartel leader. That's not something the intelligence agencies have agreed with. You're saying that Rubio goes forward with this strategy anyway?

Anatoly Kurmanaev (18:00)

That's right, Natalie. It is accepted that some cocaine ships through Venezuela, that Venezuela is a location for drug smuggling. But there has not been any convincing evidence that this is a hierarchical, organized endeavor from the top levels of Venezuelan government. But Rubio knows that this is a compelling political narrative.

Natalie Kitrov (18:21)

Right.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (18:22)

And at the same time, Mario Corinna Machado is pitching an economic reconstruction plan, which in spirit, is very similar to the deal that Maduro has been negotiating with Trump earlier this year. So, in effect, Rubio is promising to Trump that he can kill two birds with one stone. He can topple Maduro and proclaim a victory in his fight against drugs, and at the same time obtain the same economic deals that Maduro is offering him in return for staying in power.

Natalie Kitrov (18:56)

And is that actually true, that Maria Corinna Machado would give up the same things that Maduro is offering? Like Trump could just get the economic deal he wants and oust Maduro at the same time.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (19:09)

So Maria Carina has held very consistent views throughout her political career. And she is a firm believer in American style, free market economy. She is a firm supporter of American businesses, American economic interest, and she was willing to tailor her message in order to keep Trump on her side. After Trump came to power, she has stopped talking about the plight of Venezuelan migrants, which was major elements of her election campaign. She has stayed largely silent when Trump sent hundreds of Venezuelans to an El Salvadoran prison without any due process. And she has unequivocally supported Trump's campaign against drug smuggling in Venezuela without mentioning the fact that some of her countrymen are being killed at high seas without any evidence of due process.

Natalie Kitrov (20:09)

So Machado, it sounds like, is not being a purist in an effort to not alienate the Trump administration, because above all else, what she wants is political change in her country. I'm wondering how regular Venezuelans view her pitch, Rubio's pitch for US Intervention to achieve that goal. They obviously overwhelmingly voted against Maduro, as you've said. But do they agree with the argument that getting Maduro out is worth the potential upheaval of US Military action in their country?

Anatoly Kurmanaev (20:44)

This is a crucial question. Natalie Machado has presented her overwhelming victory in last year's election as a mandate for change at any cost. Whether Venezuelans agree has been difficult to gauge because of the scale of repression in the country. But the polling that I have seen shows that only a minority of Venezuelans support military intervention in Venezuela. Overwhelmingly, Venezuela support political change. They want Maduro gone and they want international community to help them achieve that change. But a minority believe that a military intervention would be a justified cause to achieve that goal.

Natalie Kitrov (21:27)

But despite the fact that intervention doesn't necessarily have broad based support in Venezuela, we are at what feels like the precipice of something. And I'm just wondering if you can lay out what the paths forward are now. Is the diplomatic route that leaves Maduro in power still even an option? Have we moved so far in the other direction that it's just not on the table anymore?

Anatoly Kurmanaev (21:51)

So diplomacy is off the table for now. Trump has told the envoy to basically cut off contacts with Maduro for the time being and appears to have given Rubio a green light to achieve results through military pressure. And supporters of negotiation approach, they acknowledge that they lost this battle. They acknowledge that they have been outplayed, outmaneuvered by Rubio at this stage. But they don't believe that this is the end. They point to Trump's behavior towards Ukraine, where he has repeatedly changed his positions since returning to power. So just because negotiations are off the table now, that does not mean that will be off the table forever. And Rubio's opponents, they are biding their time. For Rubio to make a mistake, for him to fail to produce clear results in a span of next year, several months, in order for them to then redouble their pitch of economic bounties that could be had in the short term straight away under the current government in Venezuela.

Natalie Kitrov (22:59)

On the side of those who are advocating intervention, it does seem as though a lot of people in that camp may be hoping for fantasizing about a kind of painless surgical extraction of Maduro from Venezuela, you know, by Marines or whoever, and then the arrival of a new government led by Machado that everybody wants, that functions smoothly. But, Anatoly, you know this better than me. The US Has a long history of this kind of intervention in Latin America. Has it ever worked that way? Seamless, smooth.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (23:34)

I mean, history shows that only rarely do military interventions produce the kind of sustained democracy that Machado is advocating for. There's not much track record for this sort of outcome. Machado believes that the country overwhelmingly supports her and would just welcome her with open arms to just for her candidates who assume the presidency and take over armed forces, state bureaucracy, state infrastructure, and just usher this new era of democracy, prosperity. But there's all sorts of outcome that are likely, even more likely to occur. Maduro could lose power, but be replaced by someone even more hardline within his own coalition, but someone even more oppressive and someone more antagonistic. So, as the United States, the power vacuum could create all sorts of chaos, perhaps not necessarily in Caracas, but in the periphery of a country, areas where you have all sorts of armed groups ranging from criminal gangs to Colombian insurgents. We could see the violence that this could create could unleash a whole new wave of migration towards Colombia, the neighboring country, to Venezuela, which could destabilize that country further. You know, the military interventions could have all sorts of unexpected, lasting outcomes that go far beyond the sort of clean, elegant transition to democracy under a democratically elected government.

Natalie Kitrov (25:03)

Yeah, and one of those outcomes, right, is that you could end up destabilizing this country and potentially spurring a new wave of migration, which is exactly what this administration wants to avoid is. I mean, if you end up creating all this instability that could potentially spread to neighboring countries, that's obviously not in the US Interest either. And it's also, by the way, the opposite of the America first agenda that Trump campaigned on.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (25:31)

No, and the way this campaign is unfolding so far gives indications of the risks ahead. You know, the way the strikes against boats seems to be spreading to countries neighboring Venezuela. Colombian president has accused us of murdering a Colombian fisherman. Trump has responded by cutting off AIDS and threatening Colombian governments So this has already escalated beyond the sort of narrow, surgical approach towards removing Maduro. And we are just in the beginning. So I think the risk of plunging the region into uncharted territory are very great. And this is the line that Maduro's government and his allies in Washington have exploited. They present themselves as this bastion of stability and relatives, peace against the anarchy and chaos that Machado is about to unleash on the country.

Natalie Kitrov (26:30)

Just to pull back, to take a longer view of all of this, if the Trump administration goes through with this, it wouldn't just be a return to an older, more aggressive approach to the Americas, a more aggressive foreign policy. And in many ways, it would be a test of how far the US can push the limits of that policy. In 2025, the latest phase of all of this started, as you said, with bombing boats in international waters and treating alleged criminals as if they're enemy combatants in a war, which many experts see as a complete violation of international law. So I'm wondering how you or thinking about the larger stakes of what we're seeing play out here.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (27:17)

What worries me the most here, Natalie, is the potential precedent that it sets. To me, this is beyond Venezuela, a country that I know and care deeply about. This is beyond Latin America. This is about what happens when the most powerful country on earth chooses to designate a sovereign government, yes, a repressive, illegitimate. But a government of a sovereign nation, a criminal organization, a terrorist group, and then deal with it in any matter that it sees fits. It becomes a precedent for how the US Deals with other nations around the world. To me, there's a risk of this conflict giving rise to something larger. And of course, you could argue that what we see in Minnesota is just a continuation of years, perhaps decades, of US Interventionism with drone strikes on presumed terrorists in the Middle east, at least since the time of Barack Obama, with very little legal oversight because it has sent alleged terrorists to Guantanamo Bay. But I think what we see in Venezuela is a massive escalation of a trend, right, where you see, perhaps in broad daylight, the killing of people accused of certain crime without the least amount of evidence or due process presents it. And the risk that many legal experts see is that this becomes the new normal, that this will become the way US and perhaps other global powers treat their adversaries, by designating sovereign nations as criminals and then treating them as such.

Natalie Kitrov (29:07)

Anatoly, thank you.

Anatoly Kurmanaev (29:09)

Thank you for having me, as always.

Natalie Kitrov (29:14)

On Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the military had attacked a boat in the eastern Pacific Ocean for the first time an expansion of the attacks the administration has been carrying out on vessels in the Caribbean. Hegseth said in a social media post that the strike killed two people on the boat, which he said was carrying drugs. It was the eighth known boat attack since September, bringing the officially acknowledged death toll of the strikes to 34. We'll be right back.

Schwab Advertiser (29:58)

We all have moments when we could have done better. Like cutting your own hair. Yikes. Or forgetting sunscreen so now you look like a tomato. Ouch. Coulda done better. Same goes for where you invest. Level up and invest smarter with Schwab. Get market insights, education and human help when you need it. Learn more@schwab.com Support for this podcast comes from GoodRx. GoodRx can keep your family protected this cold and flu season with discounts on flu shots. And if you do get sick, GoodRx offers savings on cold and flu meds. GoodRx compares prescription prices and instantly finds discounts of up to 80%. GoodRx is not insurance, but it works with or without it and could beat your copay price save on flu shots plus everyday medications with GoodRx. Go to goodrx.com thedaily@adobe Photoshop, we know life is full of distractions. A fifth grade clarinet solo? Distracting. A mustard stain on your favorite shirt. Oh man. Yep, distracting. Your neighbor's backyard pickleball court Distracting. But one place you don't have to put up with distractions is in your photos. With distraction removal, Photoshop can automatically delete unwanted wanted elements like wires and people. We're working on the clarinet. Try it@photoshop.com.

Natalie Kitrov (31:25)

Here'S what else you should know today. On Wednesday, President Trump announced that he was imposing new sanctions on Russia for the first time in his second term, underscoring his frustration with President Vladimir Putin after a plan for the two leaders to meet fell apart. Trump made his irritation with Putin clear on Wednesday, saying his conversations with the Russian leader were always good but never went anywhere. The sanctions targeted Russia's two largest oil companies, and they're some of the most significant measures that the US has taken against the Russian energy sector since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. And President Trump acknowledged on Wednesday that he was having the entire East East Wing demolished to make way for his 90,000 square foot ballroom, an expansion of a project that is remaking the profile of one of the nation's most iconic buildings. Trump also said the ballroom would cost 300 million, 100 million more than the original cost estimate given less than three months ago the president has said that he's raising tens of millions of dollars in private donations to fund the construction, sparking concerns from ethics experts who warn that it may just be another way for the wealthy to buy access to the president. Today's episode was produced by Carlos Prieto and Michael Simon Johnson. It was edited by M.J. davis, Lynn and Paige Cowett, contains music by Diane Wong, Elisheva Etoupe and Marian Lozano and was engineered by Chris Wood. That's it for the Daily I'm Natalie Kitroweff. See you tomorrow.

Schwab Advertiser (33:19)

We all have moments when we could have done better. Like cutting your own hair. Yikes. Or forgetting sunscreen so now you look like a tomato. Ouch. Coulda done better. Same goes for where you invest. Level up and invest smarter with Schwab. Get market insights, education and human help when you need it. Learn more@schwab.com.