Podcast Summary: The Daily

Episode: Is the U.S. Attempting a Coup in Venezuela?
Air Date: October 23, 2025
Host: Natalie Kitroeff
Guest: Anatoly Kurmanaev

Overview

This episode delves into the escalating U.S. intervention in Venezuela, exploring whether the latest American military actions constitute an attempted coup to unseat President Nicolás Maduro. The discussion lays bare the competing strategies within the Trump administration—between transactional diplomacy and aggressive regime change—and examines the forces and motivations pushing the U.S. towards open involvement in Venezuelan affairs. Through analysis and on-the-ground reports from Caracas, the episode illuminates the local and international stakes, the internal White House disputes, and the potential consequences for Venezuela and the region.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela on the Brink: The Context

• Six False Dawns: Anatoly, reporting from Caracas, describes repeated moments since 2013 when Maduro’s regime seemed about to fall amid protests, blackouts, and economic collapse, yet survived each crisis.
  • "I've seen at least six times, six moments when it looked like his government might collapse...But what we haven't had before is the specter of military action—and military action from the most powerful country on Earth." (Anatoly, 01:43)
• Escalation Beyond Sanctions: What’s different now is U.S. military involvement—strikes on vessels, troops amassed in the Caribbean, and covert operations by the CIA.

2. What Is the U.S. Endgame?

• Overt Pressure, Covert Goals: Official justification is antidrug operations, but widespread belief is that the U.S. goal is regime change.
  • "No matter who you speak to here in Venezuela...it’s clear to everyone that the final goal is to topple Maduro." (Anatoly, 03:49)
• Psychological Warfare: Part of the effort is to instill fear and paranoia, to split Maduro’s power structure.

3. Why the U.S. Wants Maduro Out

• Longstanding Hostility: U.S. antagonism dates back to Hugo Chávez's anti-U.S. posture, alliances with Iran, Russia, and China, and the repression of pro-U.S. opposition.
• Trump's Maximum Pressure: Since his 1st term, Trump recognized the opposition as Venezuela's legitimate government and imposed punishing sanctions, pushing the country toward economic disarray.

4. The Stolen 2024 Election and Rise of Maria Corina Machado

• Electoral Fraud: In 2024, the opposition swept the real vote, but Maduro falsified results; Machado wins the Nobel Peace Prize for her nonviolent campaign.
  • "Huge out swell of support for the opposition...her activists are able to provide proof of those numbers..." (Anatoly, 08:04)
• International Impasse: The world sees Maduro as illegitimate, but he clings to power by force.

5. The Trump Administration’s Venezuela Strategy Divided

Trump’s Initial Strategy: The “Resource Deal”

• Deal for Survival: Trump’s team looked to cut a grand bargain—U.S. access to all Venezuelan oil in exchange for allowing Maduro (or his movement) to stay in some power.
  • "It was arguably the most far-reaching attempt at resource diplomacy of Trump’s tenure. It involved shipping all of Venezuelan oil to the United States." (Anatoly, 09:57)
• Maduro’s Incentive: Survival and continued access to wealth.

The Rubio Shift: Regime Change at Any Cost

• How Rubio Upended the Deal: Secretary of State Marco Rubio actively sabotaged the resource bargain, appealing to the Cuban American bloc and influencing Trump using domestic political leverage. (13:34–14:23)
  • "Rubio...exerts pressure to cancel permits for US Companies...convinces Trump that Cuban American congressmen from South Florida will not support his big spending bill if a deal with Maduro goes forward." (Anatoly, 13:43)
• Personal Stakes: Rubio, child of Cuban immigrants, sees removing Maduro as the centerpiece of anti-communist policy in the region.

Framing Maduro as a Narco-Terrorist

• Switching Narrative from Democracy to Drugs: With Trump uninterested in “human rights talk,” Rubio frames Maduro's regime as a drug cartel—a narrative with strong resonance for Trump’s domestic drug war rhetoric.
  • "He starts to frame the Venezuelan government as a drug cartel...He flips the Venezuelan issue from being a struggle over democracy and human rights towards it being a struggle against drugs." (Anatoly, 15:28)
• Thin Evidence: Despite lack of credible proof, U.S. labels Maduro as head of the “Cartel of the Suns” and attacks “drug boats.”
  • "There has not been any convincing evidence that this is a hierarchical, organized endeavor from the top levels of Venezuelan government. But Rubio knows that this is a compelling political narrative." (Anatoly, 18:00)

6. Maria Corina Machado’s Position and Local Sentiment

• Aligning with the U.S.: Machado, described as pro-U.S. and free market, tailors her messaging to avoid criticizing U.S. military actions and mass deportations, prioritizing a relationship with Trump over previous campaign promises. (19:09–20:09)
• Venezuelan Attitudes: Most Venezuelans want change but do not support military intervention; only a minority would accept foreign force to oust Maduro. (20:44)
  • "Overwhelmingly, Venezuelans support political change...But only a minority believe that a military intervention would be a justified cause to achieve that goal." (Anatoly, 20:44)

7. What Are the Paths Forward?

• Diplomacy on Hold: Negotiations are paused, with Trump giving Rubio a green light for military pressure, though critics hope circumstances might change if this approach falters.
• Risks of “Surgical” Intervention: The hope among some U.S. officials and opposition supporters for a clean, quick regime change is at odds with history.
  • "History shows that only rarely do military interventions produce the kind of sustained democracy that Machado is advocating for." (Anatoly, 23:34)
• Dangers of Destabilization: U.S. strikes risk wider chaos, for example, accusations of killing a Colombian fisherman trigger diplomatic blowback, with potential for wider regional destabilization and migration crises. (25:03–26:30)
• Precedent for U.S. Foreign Policy: The episode ends on an ominous note about the precedent of designating foreign governments as “terrorist organizations” to rationalize forceful intervention.
  • "What worries me the most...is the potential precedent that it sets. To me, this is beyond Venezuela...This is about what happens when the most powerful country on Earth chooses to designate a sovereign government...a criminal organization...and then deal with it in any manner it sees fit." (Anatoly, 27:17)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Military Threat as Game-Changer:

  • “What was missing in the past was the threat of U.S. military action.” (Anatoly, 07:51)

• On Trump’s Resource Diplomacy:

  • “It was arguably the most far-reaching attempt at resource diplomacy of Trump’s tenure.” (Anatoly, 09:57)

• On Rubio’s Influence Through Domestic Politics:

  • “Rubio uses his connections in the South Florida Republican Party to convince Trump that Cuban American congressman from South Florida will not support his big spending bill if a deal with Maduro goes forward.” (Anatoly, 13:43)

• On Risks of Intervention:

  • “The way the strikes against boats seems to be spreading to countries neighboring Venezuela…this has already escalated beyond the sort of narrow, surgical approach towards removing Maduro. And we are just in the beginning.” (Anatoly, 25:31)

• On Precedent and Legal Norms:

  • “What we see in Venezuela is a massive escalation…You see, perhaps in broad daylight, the killing of people accused of certain crime without the least amount of evidence or due process.” (Anatoly, 27:17)

Key Segment Timestamps

• Venezuela’s history of crisis; why this time is different – 01:24–03:37
• U.S. military actions & endgame – 02:51–04:38
• Background of U.S.–Venezuelan hostility – 04:45–07:23
• The stolen 2024 election & aftermath – 08:04–09:22
• Trump’s oil-for-power proposal – 09:36–11:07
• Rubio’s sabotage & hardline shift – 13:34–15:24
• Reframing Maduro as cartel leader – 15:28–18:00
• Machado’s compromise & Venezuelan opinion – 19:09–20:44
• Paths forward & dangers of U.S. intervention – 21:27–26:30
• Potential precedent & global stakes – 27:17–29:07

Conclusion

This episode provides a nuanced, behind-the-scenes look at the U.S.'s rapidly shifting policy toward Venezuela under the Trump administration. Through vivid reporting and expert analysis, it shows how the debate over regime change has moved from sanctions and pressure to overt military action, driven in part by domestic political calculations. The story is framed by cautious warnings about precedents in international law, the limits of military intervention, and the dangers of seeking quick fixes to deep political crises. The stakes extend far beyond Venezuela, challenging the norms of international behavior and illuminating the deep rifts—both within the White House and Venezuelan society—over the future of the country.