The Daily: "Netflix vs. Paramount: Inside the Epic Battle Over Warner Brothers"

Date: December 9, 2025
Host: Michael Barbaro (with Lauren Hirsch, Nicole Sperling, Kyle Buchanan)
Podcast: The New York Times

Overview

This episode dives into the high-stakes, headline-grabbing battle for the ownership of Warner Brothers Studios. The main focus: the $83 billion offer from Netflix to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming assets—an acquisition seen by some as a smart business move and by others as a potentially monopolistic consolidation. Paramount, meanwhile, launches a rare, aggressive hostile takeover bid to beat Netflix and secure Warner Bros. for itself. The panel, comprising Lauren Hirsch (mergers reporter), Nicole Sperling (Hollywood business), and Kyle Buchanan (movies and awards season), unpacks what these rival bids mean for Hollywood, creative communities, theaters, viewers, and the future of television and film.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Players and Their Stakes

[03:55-06:44]

• Warner Brothers: A century-old Hollywood powerhouse, post-merger with Discovery, now appearing vulnerable and ready for break-up or sale.
  • Quote: "Warner Brothers is one of Hollywood's crown jewels... It's made movies from Casablanca to Batman." — Kyle Buchanan [03:55]
• Paramount (now Skydance/Paramount): Recently acquired by David Ellison (with finance from his father, Oracle's Larry Ellison), plotting expansion to compete in streaming.
  • Quote: "David Ellison... is a small media mogul in comparison... What's really important right now in media is streaming. And Paramount Plus...is a drop in the bucket..." — Nicole Sperling [05:14]
• Netflix: The streaming giant, always in growth mode, sees Warner Bros. as an irresistible chance to cement dominance and acquire a marquee content library.
  • Quote: "Netflix has the best optimization, the best tech. They can do things with content that the other streaming services can't do." — Nicole Sperling [07:36]

2. Why Did Warner Brothers Accept Netflix’s Offer?

[07:49-08:24]

• The Warner Bros. board viewed Netflix’s partial acquisition (focused on studio and streaming) as offering more value and stability than Paramount’s all-company offer. Paramount disagrees and launches a hostile bid.

3. Hostile Takeover 101

[08:41-09:17]

• Hostile takeovers are rare now; involve bypassing a company’s board to directly woo shareholders, often by promising better immediate returns (e.g., $30/share in cash).
  • Quote: "You have a company out there screaming how terrible your board is...it's kind of a nuclear option." — Nicole Sperling [09:15]
• Notable: Larry Ellison (David’s father) succeeded with a hostile bid before.

4. If Netflix Wins: Boon for Subscribers, Doom for Theaters?

[09:55-18:32]

• Pros for Netflix and Subscribers: Enhances content library, gives Netflix new business lines (selling TV shows, entering theatrical movies), and may potentially lower bundled subscription costs.
  • Quote: "This does for Netflix is it beefs up its central business, its reason for being, which is streaming to people at home." — Lauren Hirsch [11:59]
• Cons for Theaters and Creators:
  • Widespread industry fear that Netflix will eventually minimize or eliminate theatrical movie releases—bad news for theaters and traditional film culture.
  • Quote: "Netflix has never given any assurances that they really believe in the theatrical experience...it's not a crazy idea—they're only going to do it so they can get the deal through." — Nicole Sperling [14:50]
  • Theaters will lose out on both tentpole blockbusters and smaller films; culture of “event movies” may fade.
    • "Fewer movies would come out, fewer big movies, fewer small movies, movies of every stripe…" — Kyle Buchanan [12:52]
  • Netflix’s rationale: keeping people on its platform long-term is worth more than temporary box-office gains.
    • "They are willing to leave that short term money on the table if it guarantees them a long term future where streaming is dominant above all else." — Kyle Buchanan [18:32]

5. Impact on Pricing and Antitrust Concerns

[19:04-22:37]

• Subscribers may start with lower prices but shouldn’t count on it; less competition means greater price-control power for Netflix.
• Netflix denies they’re forming a monopoly, arguing that in the attention economy, they're just one of many (including YouTube, TikTok, cable TV).
  • Quote: "Regulators... should be thinking about that backdrop, not just streaming." — Nicole Sperling [20:36]
• Paramount’s counter: consolidation is anti-competitive and bad for the creative ecosystem.

6. If Paramount Prevails: A Different Sort of Consolidation

[24:34-27:42]

• Paramount is now more politicized—David Ellison is seen as willing to align with Trump, and if successful, may turn CNN into a network friendlier to conservative perspectives.
  • Quote: "David Ellison has signaled a sort of willingness to accommodate Trump... part of the reason Ellison wants Warner Brothers Discovery at all is to remake CNN in a manner that would please Trump." — Kyle Buchanan [25:01]
• For Creators/Theaters: More traditional release cadence; plans to put up to 30 movies/year in theaters—good for theatrical market.
  • However, means more layoffs with overlapping roles, and overall consolidation means job losses somewhere.
    • "There's going to be a lot more layoffs in that scenario as well." — Nicole Sperling [27:38]

7. Who Makes the Better Stuff? Who Wins?

[29:36-34:20]

• Content quality fears: Mergers may not mean better shows or movies. Internal redundancies and cost-cutting may erode the “HBO prestige” standard, whether Netflix or Paramount wins.
  • Quote: "Whoever wins, we lose." — Kyle Buchanan, referencing the tagline from Alien vs. Predator [30:21]
  • Quote: "Netflix has always admired HBO...but then once they realize how expensive those development processes are...they may not be as encouraged to spend that kind of money in order to make the few great shows..." — Nicole Sperling [31:28]
• Netflix will likely continue to offer sheer volume, not necessarily matching HBO’s curation and artistry.

8. What’s Next? Who Will Win the Bid?

[34:20-36:42]

• Historically, hostile bids rarely succeed; so Netflix would be the favorite.
• However, Trump’s presidency has made outcomes unpredictable—his relationships and statements could tip the regulatory scales.
  • Quote: "I just don't know what's going to happen... I think I'll hold and not bet on either of you." — Nicole Sperling [35:14]
  • Trump has met with both bidders’ CEOs, but his preferences remain unclear—he could intervene directly.

9. The Future of Movies and TV: Consolidation Above All

[36:53-38:58]

• Regardless who wins, consolidation will hurt both creative and business diversity. Fewer, bigger players will control what gets made and how it’s distributed.
  • The shift toward streaming makes the future of movies themselves uncertain:
    • "As we move into an all-streaming future and theatrical continues to die on the vine, is it in streamers' best interest to invest in movies as a two-hour medium?" — Kyle Buchanan [37:07]
  • The focus will shift even more toward long-running series that keep audiences on platforms, not movies.
  • Quote: "Swimming in a sea of serial streaming shows... Swimming and maybe drowning." — Lauren Hirsch and Kyle Buchanan [38:54]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Hostile Takeovers & History:
  • "Hostile bids can be successful, but they're not fun...One of the most famous hostile bids that was successful was by David Ellison's father." — Nicole Sperling [09:17]
• On Netflix’s Motivation:
  • "Netflix is trying to take a competitor off of the board. That competitor is not Warner Brothers; that competitor is movie theaters." — Kyle Buchanan [12:11]
• On Consumer Impact:
  • "Who among us subscribes to HBO and Netflix? Everybody." — Lauren Hirsch [19:33]
• On Quality vs. Volume:
  • "Netflix wants both. They want volume, and they want quality...But they also want to make what's best for you. What they've always said is they compete with sleep." — Nicole Sperling [33:43]
• On the Inevitable Direction:
  • "Whoever wins, we lose." — Kyle Buchanan, invoking "Alien vs. Predator" [30:21]

Timestamps of Major Segments

• [03:55] — Introduction to Warner Bros., Paramount, and Netflix’s respective positions
• [07:49] — Why Warner Bros. preferred Netflix’s bid over Paramount’s
• [08:41] — Hostile takeover explanation and context
• [09:55-18:32] — What changes if Netflix wins; the threat to theaters
• [19:04] — Prospects for subscriber bundles and pricing
• [20:36-22:37] — Antitrust arguments: Netflix’s vs. Paramount’s views
• [24:34] — Exploring an alternate universe: Paramount’s takeover and its implications
• [29:36] — Comparing anticipated content quality under both companies
• [34:20] — Predictions and the Trump factor
• [36:53] — Final reflections: The risk of consolidation and fate of cinema

Final Thoughts

The Daily’s roundtable deftly reveals that whether Netflix or Paramount ultimately wins, the age of the entertainment mega-merger is here. Each path has tradeoffs: Netflix may accelerate the decline of movie theaters and volume-over-quality content; Paramount may preserve theaters but risks more job cuts and a politically fraught media landscape. The creative community, the workforce, and audience experience all hang in the balance—with even broader implications for how culture itself gets made, seen, and felt in the streaming age.