The Daily — Oscars 2026: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win?
March 8, 2026
Hosts: Michael Barbaro, with guest Manola Darcis, NYT Chief Movie Critic

Episode Overview

With one week until the 98th Academy Awards, Michael Barbaro and Manola Darcis dive into the year’s Oscar frontrunners. They explore which films and performances are expected to win—and which ones truly deserve it—offering both critical insight and personal favorites. The episode reflects on the state of American cinema, discussing the surprising vitality and risk-taking spirit present in 2025’s slate.

Main Theme: “Will Win” Versus “Should Win”

Manola Darcis brings a nuanced, impassioned perspective: “I have a love-hate relationship with the Oscars. ...The Oscars are terrible. Unless they're right. Which means unless they pick my movies, you know.” (00:39)

While the Oscars often surprise (for better or worse), 2025’s nominees, per Darcis, are unusually in sync with critical standards: “Despite all of the dire warnings...the movie industry is not dead. ...It's back, baby. The industry might be completely a mess, but the movies are there, and they're wonderful.” (02:57)

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Best Actress in a Leading Role (04:00)

Will Win: Jessie Buckley in “Hamnet”

• Role: Agnes, Shakespeare’s wife.
• Why She’s the Frontrunner: Classic Oscar fare: “It's about the woman behind the man...we are seeing him through her.” (04:31)
• The performance spans “love of the young, sexy man, mother love, marital drama, and tragedy.” (04:42)
• Buckley’s “big” emotional performance fits the Academy’s preferences: “The Academy loves big performances. If there's snot running down your face, you probably will get an Oscar.” (07:13, 07:23)

Should Win: Renata Renzave in “Sentimental Value”

• Role: Nora, theater actress with a fraught paternal relationship.
• Why It's Exceptional:
  • “A more subtle and complicated performance...a quiet tour de force.” (07:41, 09:04)
  • Notable for emotional transparency: “Her face ripples with emotions...curiosity, wonder, difficulty...because the filmmaker is not telling us what to think and how to feel, we come to that ourselves. It's a very emotionally honest moment.” (09:17-10:45)
• Metaphor: Buckley is a “thundering storm,” Renzave is “a gentle...slow reveal.” (11:08)

2. Best Actor in a Leading Role (13:36)

Strong Year, Unclear Favorite

“This is such a hard one because it's a really unusually great slate.” —Manola Darcis (13:36)

• Three standouts: Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”), Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”), Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”).

Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”

• Table tennis champion chasing the American dream (14:21).
• “A very aggressive performance...A complicated, interesting movie about what is the American dream for this very specific person.” (15:14)
• Memorable scene: Chalamet, in hotel bathrobe and boxers, fast-talking Gwyneth Paltrow’s character. “He's just talking a mile a minute, trying to seduce this woman.” (16:08-16:59)
• Chalamet brings both abrasiveness and “warmth, relatability, and charm.” (17:23)

Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”

• Plays identical twins, “Smoke” and “Stack,” returning gangsters in the Mississippi Delta (18:10, 18:28).
• Seamlessly crafts two distinct personalities (19:08).
• Key moment: Rekindling with his wife—“a kind of renewed courtship...fall into each other's arms. And then it gets, well, smoking hot.” (20:09, 20:37)

Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”

• As Lorenz Hart, alcoholic lyricist, in a single-night drama (21:12).
• “There's a lack of vanity here...he looks like he at times is literally shrinking before our eyes.” (22:22)
• Emotional impact: “We are just basically watching Hart kind of debase himself, groveling. And yet he's so proud...You see the face harden, soften, almost collapse.” (23:10-23:43)
• Barbaro: “It is such a profoundly sad performance...very, very tragic.” (23:57)
• Darcis: “Hawk is basically tapping into all that and then adding his interpretation of this man who is soon going to depart.” (24:55)

Who Should Win?

• Darcis slightly favors Ethan Hawke: “I really would like...Ethan Hawke. I think it's a magnificent performance, but I also think that Michael B. Jordan is wonderful. ...It's one of these times...it's very, very difficult to do our usual binary.” (25:36)

3. Best Picture (27:56)

Top Contenders

• “One Battle After Another” (Paul Thomas Anderson)

  • Revolutionaries, led by Leonardo DiCaprio’s lovable burnout, fight for a better America (28:55).
  • Captures the zeitgeist—“seemed to be speaking to conflicts that we are all reading about.” (30:02)
  • Not just heavy drama: “Gloriously...not a solemn eat your vegetables movie. The other side of tragedy is comedy.” (31:10)
  • Comedic highlight: DiCaprio’s character hilariously botches a clandestine phone call. “Let's just not nitpick over the password stuff...” (31:49-32:14)

• “Sinners” (Ryan Coogler)

  • Already celebrated for Michael B. Jordan’s dual role.
  • Standout sequence: A musical performance at the juke joint conjures a sweeping vision of Black history, crossing time and artforms: “Time and space kind of collapse...the great arc of history that takes us from Africa to Mississippi...” (33:20-34:16)
  • Both top nominees “feel urgent,” speaking directly to the American experience. (34:45)

Lesser-Known Gem: “The Secret Agent”

• Brazilian film, opens in 1977 under military dictatorship; directed by Kleber Mendoza Figlio (35:37).
• Wild tonal shifts—“from moments of outrageous, almost kind of burlesque comedy...to [profound] coming together with like-minded souls in order to survive.” (35:37-36:49)
• “I can guarantee you will never know what is gonna happen next, which is just absolutely so welcome.” (35:37)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the Oscars’ unpredictability:
  “The Oscars are terrible. Unless they're right. Which means unless they pick my movies, you know.”
  —Manola Darcis, 00:39

• On Jessie Buckley’s gravitas:
  “Just remember, the Academy loves big performances. ...if there's snot running down your face, you probably will get an Oscar.”
  —Manola Darcis, 07:13, 07:23

• On performances’ contrast:
  “If I was gonna use an analogy, one is a kind of thundering storm of a performance, and the other one is a kind of gentle...slow reveal.”
  —Manola Darcis, 11:08

• On Hawke’s artistry:
  “Hawk is a much greater and much more interesting actor than he was when he was cute and didn't have as many lines on his face. Some of us, you know, we improve with age.”
  —Manola Darcis, 24:55

• On the year in movies:
  “Maybe people want movies that are very well made and say something about the world that we live in.”
  —Manola Darcis, 37:06

Significant Timestamps

• Opening discussion of Oscar mood: 00:24–02:57
• Best Actress analysis & scene breakdown: 04:00–11:08
• Best Actor nominees & scenes: 13:36–26:06
• Best Picture contenders & scene analysis: 27:56–36:49
• Reflections on Hollywood’s future: 37:06–37:40

Episode’s Tone & Style

Conversational, witty, and openly passionate about movies. Darcis and Barbaro combine playful banter (“You may not actually be screaming at the television.” —37:40) with sharp-eyed critique, genuinely grappling with award season’s pleasures and frustrations.

Summary Takeaway

This year’s Oscars reflect “a kind of magical year”—not just for critics but for audiences. Darcis sees hope in Hollywood’s willingness to back bolder, more complex films, and optimism that audiences hunger for works that “say something about the world that we live in.” As for prediction, the “will win” and “should win” distinction might blur: 2026 could be a year where the Oscars get it right. For the first time in a while, viewers may watch the ceremony with more celebration than anger.

“I can always call you, Michael, and start yelling if you need me to. I am available for speed dial anger, you know…”
—Manola Darcis (37:47)

End of Summary