Oscars 2026: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win?

Summary

The Daily — Oscars 2026: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win?
March 8, 2026
Hosts: Michael Barbaro, with guest Manola Darcis, NYT Chief Movie Critic

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Episode Overview

With one week until the 98th Academy Awards, Michael Barbaro and Manola Darcis dive into the year’s Oscar frontrunners. They explore which films and performances are expected to win—and which ones truly deserve it—offering both critical insight and personal favorites. The episode reflects on the state of American cinema, discussing the surprising vitality and risk-taking spirit present in 2025’s slate.

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Main Theme: “Will Win” Versus “Should Win”

Manola Darcis brings a nuanced, impassioned perspective: “I have a love-hate relationship with the Oscars. ...The Oscars are terrible. Unless they're right. Which means unless they pick my movies, you know.” (00:39)

While the Oscars often surprise (for better or worse), 2025’s nominees, per Darcis, are unusually in sync with critical standards: “Despite all of the dire warnings...the movie industry is not dead. ...It's back, baby. The industry might be completely a mess, but the movies are there, and they're wonderful.” (02:57)

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Best Actress in a Leading Role (04:00)

Will Win: Jessie Buckley in “Hamnet”

• Role: Agnes, Shakespeare’s wife.
• Why She’s the Frontrunner: Classic Oscar fare: “It's about the woman behind the man...we are seeing him through her.” (04:31)
• The performance spans “love of the young, sexy man, mother love, marital drama, and tragedy.” (04:42)
• Buckley’s “big” emotional performance fits the Academy’s preferences: “The Academy loves big performances. If there's snot running down your face, you probably will get an Oscar.” (07:13, 07:23)

Should Win: Renata Renzave in “Sentimental Value”

• Role: Nora, theater actress with a fraught paternal relationship.
• Why It's Exceptional:
  • “A more subtle and complicated performance...a quiet tour de force.” (07:41, 09:04)
  • Notable for emotional transparency: “Her face ripples with emotions...curiosity, wonder, difficulty...because the filmmaker is not telling us what to think and how to feel, we come to that ourselves. It's a very emotionally honest moment.” (09:17-10:45)
• Metaphor: Buckley is a “thundering storm,” Renzave is “a gentle...slow reveal.” (11:08)

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2. Best Actor in a Leading Role (13:36)

Strong Year, Unclear Favorite

“This is such a hard one because it's a really unusually great slate.” —Manola Darcis (13:36)

• Three standouts: Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”), Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”), Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”).

Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”

• Table tennis champion chasing the American dream (14:21).
• “A very aggressive performance...A complicated, interesting movie about what is the American dream for this very specific person.” (15:14)
• Memorable scene: Chalamet, in hotel bathrobe and boxers, fast-talking Gwyneth Paltrow’s character. “He's just talking a mile a minute, trying to seduce this woman.” (16:08-16:59)
• Chalamet brings both abrasiveness and “warmth, relatability, and charm.” (17:23)

Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”

• Plays identical twins, “Smoke” and “Stack,” returning gangsters in the Mississippi Delta (18:10, 18:28).
• Seamlessly crafts two distinct personalities (19:08).
• Key moment: Rekindling with his wife—“a kind of renewed courtship...fall into each other's arms. And then it gets, well, smoking hot.” (20:09, 20:37)

Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”

• As Lorenz Hart, alcoholic lyricist, in a single-night drama (21:12).
• “There's a lack of vanity here...he looks like he at times is literally shrinking before our eyes.” (22:22)
• Emotional impact: “We are just basically watching Hart kind of debase himself, groveling. And yet he's so proud...You see the face harden, soften, almost collapse.” (23:10-23:43)
• Barbaro: “It is such a profoundly sad performance...very, very tragic.” (23:57)
• Darcis: “Hawk is basically tapping into all that and then adding his interpretation of this man who is soon going to depart.” (24:55)

Who Should Win?

• Darcis slightly favors Ethan Hawke: “I really would like...Ethan Hawke. I think it's a magnificent performance, but I also think that Michael B. Jordan is wonderful. ...It's one of these times...it's very, very difficult to do our usual binary.” (25:36)

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3. Best Picture (27:56)

Top Contenders

• “One Battle After Another” (Paul Thomas Anderson)

  • Revolutionaries, led by Leonardo DiCaprio’s lovable burnout, fight for a better America (28:55).
  • Captures the zeitgeist—“seemed to be speaking to conflicts that we are all reading about.” (30:02)
  • Not just heavy drama: “Gloriously...not a solemn eat your vegetables movie. The other side of tragedy is comedy.” (31:10)
  • Comedic highlight: DiCaprio’s character hilariously botches a clandestine phone call. “Let's just not nitpick over the password stuff...” (31:49-32:14)

• “Sinners” (Ryan Coogler)

  • Already celebrated for Michael B. Jordan’s dual role.
  • Standout sequence: A musical performance at the juke joint conjures a sweeping vision of Black history, crossing time and artforms: “Time and space kind of collapse...the great arc of history that takes us from Africa to Mississippi...” (33:20-34:16)
  • Both top nominees “feel urgent,” speaking directly to the American experience. (34:45)

Lesser-Known Gem: “The Secret Agent”

• Brazilian film, opens in 1977 under military dictatorship; directed by Kleber Mendoza Figlio (35:37).
• Wild tonal shifts—“from moments of outrageous, almost kind of burlesque comedy...to [profound] coming together with like-minded souls in order to survive.” (35:37-36:49)
• “I can guarantee you will never know what is gonna happen next, which is just absolutely so welcome.” (35:37)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the Oscars’ unpredictability:
  “The Oscars are terrible. Unless they're right. Which means unless they pick my movies, you know.”
  —Manola Darcis, 00:39

• On Jessie Buckley’s gravitas:
  “Just remember, the Academy loves big performances. ...if there's snot running down your face, you probably will get an Oscar.”
  —Manola Darcis, 07:13, 07:23

• On performances’ contrast:
  “If I was gonna use an analogy, one is a kind of thundering storm of a performance, and the other one is a kind of gentle...slow reveal.”
  —Manola Darcis, 11:08

• On Hawke’s artistry:
  “Hawk is a much greater and much more interesting actor than he was when he was cute and didn't have as many lines on his face. Some of us, you know, we improve with age.”
  —Manola Darcis, 24:55

• On the year in movies:
  “Maybe people want movies that are very well made and say something about the world that we live in.”
  —Manola Darcis, 37:06

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Significant Timestamps

• Opening discussion of Oscar mood: 00:24–02:57
• Best Actress analysis & scene breakdown: 04:00–11:08
• Best Actor nominees & scenes: 13:36–26:06
• Best Picture contenders & scene analysis: 27:56–36:49
• Reflections on Hollywood’s future: 37:06–37:40

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Episode’s Tone & Style

Conversational, witty, and openly passionate about movies. Darcis and Barbaro combine playful banter (“You may not actually be screaming at the television.” —37:40) with sharp-eyed critique, genuinely grappling with award season’s pleasures and frustrations.

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Summary Takeaway

This year’s Oscars reflect “a kind of magical year”—not just for critics but for audiences. Darcis sees hope in Hollywood’s willingness to back bolder, more complex films, and optimism that audiences hunger for works that “say something about the world that we live in.” As for prediction, the “will win” and “should win” distinction might blur: 2026 could be a year where the Oscars get it right. For the first time in a while, viewers may watch the ceremony with more celebration than anger.

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“I can always call you, Michael, and start yelling if you need me to. I am available for speed dial anger, you know…”
—Manola Darcis (37:47)

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End of Summary

Transcript

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[Michael Barbaro]

Sometimes AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything. I've always wanted to ask you this question. Do film critics like yourself actually get excited about the Oscars?

[Manola Darcis]

I have a love hate relationship with the Oscars. I mean, I've watched, I think, probably almost every single Oscar since I was a child. I often spend the entire time cursing at the screen and speed dialing friends and then cheering wildly when one of my favorite movies wins something. You so the Oscars are terrible. Unless they're right. Which means unless they pick my movies, you know.

[Michael Barbaro]

From the New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is the Daily on Sunday. The 98th annual Academy Awards are one week from today. Of the untold hundreds of films that were released in the United States last year, some 50 or so are nominated for Oscars. And according to critics and industry insiders, those movies are uncommonly good. Despite all the forces arrayed against Hollywood, it was kind of a magical year. Great movies were made and audiences found them mostly. So with one week to go before the Oscars, we asked Manola Darcis, the Times chief movie critic, to come in and talk about 2025's the unmissable performances and unskippable movies. So take notes, even if they're just mental notes, and plan your watching very wisely for the next seven days. It's Sunday, March 8th. Manola, welcome to the Sunday Daily.

[Manola Darcis]

Thank you, Michael. It's nice to be here.

[Michael Barbaro]

This is our first ever conversation, you and I.

[Manola Darcis]

What took us so long?

[Michael Barbaro]

Great question. So if you had to pick a single word to describe this year's Oscar nominees, what would that word be?

[Manola Darcis]

One word.

[Michael Barbaro]

That's the exercise here.

[Manola Darcis]

Surprising, you know, and why it's surprising on some level is that there are so many good movies that are up for awards. I mean, two of the movies are the top of my top 10, you know, centers in one battle after another, you know, and I think so you

[Michael Barbaro]

and the Oscars in sync this year?

[Manola Darcis]

What happened? I mean. Yes. So despite all of the dire warnings and broadcasts and articles that are out there, the movie industry is not dead. And moviemaking and movies are certainly not dead. It's Kind of like think of the ending of Carrie when the hand pops out of the grave. That is American cinema. You know, it's. It's back, baby. The industry might be completely a mess, but the movies are there, and they're wonderful.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay, so, Manola, we're here to talk about some of the movies our listeners should definitely plan to watch before the Oscars ceremony next Sunday. I was thinking that the way we could do that is to talk about some of the frontrunners for Oscars and then some of the actors and the performances you personally loved this year. So basically, the will win versus should win tension. So let's start with the actresses competing for best actress in a leading role. Who do you think is likely to win there?

[Manola Darcis]

Well, I think the consensus is that Jessie Buckley, who plays Agnes, William Shakespeare's wife in Hamnet, that she is going to win.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

He knows what you may be. I'm not being hasty.

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He needs more.

[Manola Darcis]

He needs proper work.

[Michael Barbaro]

A man needs proper work.

[Manola Darcis]

He cannot just run away.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

This little thing, you know, crush him.

[Manola Darcis]

I think it would be very shocking. It would be probably the major upset of the evening if she did. If she did not win.

[Michael Barbaro]

What is it about her performance in Hamnet that you think makes her the front runner?

[Manola Darcis]

Well, it's a kind of classic role. It's about the woman behind the man. In this case, the man is William Shakespeare.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

What are you writing? Nothing of note. It's never nothing.

[Manola Darcis]

Usually the women are introduced in a movie classically, and then they wave at their husband as their husband goes off and has his adventures, you know, and in this case, we are seeing him through her. And they fall in love, they have children, they build a home. Part of the richness of the character is the character goes through all the feelings. You know, we have the love of the young, sexy man, Will, played by Paul Mescal, and then we have mother love, and then we have marital drama, and then we have tragedy. So as an actress, Buckley is really, really has to go through every single thing, and she has to bring us along. And she is really the character who is bringing us through all of the different emotional registers.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

I will not have my baby in this house. Not in this house.

[Manola Darcis]

There's a harrowing birth scene where she's giving birth to her twins. And the scene takes you through every possible motion, you know, where you're like, oh, someone's gonna give birth. And, oh, what's happening?

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

She's starting again. You're having twins, my girl.

[Manola Darcis]

And the birth is very, very difficult. And it Seems like it may end in tragedy.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Why is she not crying? Why is she not crying?

[Manola Darcis]

And she takes us through every single moment as her face is contorting. But there is love and there is also serenity in there.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Yes, yes.

[Manola Darcis]

And that is really beautiful to see. Mm.

[Michael Barbaro]

And then, of course, there is the tragedy you alluded to just a little bit ago, the grief that she embodies, and it's almost animalistic.

[Manola Darcis]

What? The tragedy, which I will address, and if people don't want to listen to it, they can, you know, put their fingers in their ears for a moment, is that one of their twins, their only son, Hamnet, dies while Will is in London working on a play. And Agnes resents him for being away, even though she was the one who encouraged him to go away.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

He was in agony. Agnes cried and he cried. Agnes cried and he cried, and his little body was wracked in pain. Don't shush me. He was so scared, and you weren't here.

[Manola Darcis]

And just remember, the Academy loves big performances. They like really, really big. And they like watching other actors go through it.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right. The Academy roots for Shirley MacLaine in terms of Endearment, and it always will.

[Manola Darcis]

Yes. You know, if there's snot running down your face, you probably will get an Oscar.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay, so is Jessie Buckley your favorite of the nominated performances, or is there somebody else who is perhaps more deserving?

[Manola Darcis]

I'm very fond of Renata Renzave, who is a Norwegian actress, and she's in a movie called Sentimental Value. It's a more subtle and I think a more complicated performance than Buckley's because the character is more complicated.

[Michael Barbaro]

Well, tell us about the character and the film.

[Manola Darcis]

The movie is focused on a family. The father is a filmmaker played by Stellan Skarsgrd. The camera's here on her now.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

This is crucial, the expression she has here.

[Manola Darcis]

And his daughter Nora, played by Renata Rencive, is an up and coming theater actress. He wants to make a new movie, and he wants her to star in it, and she does not because they have a very fraught relationship. So instead, he hires an American actress played by Elle Fanning. And over the course of the movie, the Elle Fanning character basically tries to turn herself into a version of the daughter. Maybe I should have a Norwegian accent like Ingrid.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

I don't have an accent, do I?

[Manola Darcis]

And Renatarendseve is just a. It's a tour de force performance, but it is a quiet tour de force performance.

[Michael Barbaro]

Talk us through one of these quiet moments that makes this a tour De force performance.

[Manola Darcis]

There's a great scene when Elle Fanning's character goes to visit Renata Renciv at the theater where she's doing a play. Hey. Hi.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Hi. So nice to meet you.

[Manola Darcis]

The two women are seated in the auditorium of the theater, so it's pretty intimate. But the director does something really interesting. He puts Elle Fanning in the foreground of the shot. So she's really close to us, yet she's out of focus. Slightly out of focus. But the other woman, the Renata Rensving character, she's really crisp, and she is listening to Elle Fanning talk. Just keep thinking that he made it, he made a mistake. And she's talking about her struggles with the role that the Renata Ren character should have taken but turned down. The more that I study her, the more lost I feel trying to be her. It's like her sad as an actress. Renata Ren has what I think of as, like, great emotional transparency. And we are watching her face ripple with emotions as she listens to the other woman. So you see her curiosity, her wonder, her difficulty. And because the filmmaker is not telling us what to think and how to feel, we come to that ourselves. It's a very beautiful moment, a very emotionally honest moment.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Well, he's. Very difficult person, but he is a really good.

[Michael Barbaro]

So in the particulars, these two roles have a lot in common. Both films have this overlapping focus on the theater. They both have some real tragedy. But these are two very different from what you're saying. Performances.

[Manola Darcis]

Right. I mean, if I was gonna, you know, to use an analogy, one is a kind of thundering storm of a performance, and the other one is a kind of gentle. And sometimes the rain gets a little heavy, but it's not. There's no lightning and thunder. It's a slow reveal of a performance.

[Michael Barbaro]

Well, Manola, we are going to take a very quick break, and when we come back, we're going to talk about who is likely to win and who should win when it comes to Best Actor.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

We'll be right back.

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[Michael Barbaro]

So Manola, Best actors, best lead performance by a man in the last year who is likely to win that Oscar.

[Manola Darcis]

Ugh, this is such a hard one because it's a really unusually great slate. I like all of the performances. However, if I had to be forced to narrow it down, I would say that could be Timothee Chalamet in Marty Supreme, Michael B. Jordan for his dual roles in Singing, or Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay, so what you're telling us is that perhaps our will win framework might implode a little bit here. But if that's the case, let's just talk about all three of these actors and their performances. And where do you want to start?

[Manola Darcis]

Manola well, let's start with Timothee Chalamet.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

And I have tremendous respect for your money. And I know it's hard to believe, but I'm telling you, this game, it fills stadiums overseas. And it's only a matter of time before Phil stadiums in the United States, too, before I'm staring at you from the COVID of a Wheaties box.

[Manola Darcis]

He's in this movie called Marty supreme, which is about a table tennis champion. It's after World War II, mainly takes place in New York. It's very much about someone who is really racing toward his American dream. And he's doing it through table tennis. He's an amazing, amazing table tennis player. And he hustles on the side for money. He works in the shoe store. He's a nice boy, but he also hustles and he's completely how could you,

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

of all people, do this to me? The way I treat you. How could I do this to you? Yes, how could you know how Could I do this to you? How about what you're doing to me? Have you ever forgiven me?

[Michael Barbaro]

I mean, nice boy who impregnates a woman in the basement of the shoe store while he's supposed to be getting an old woman a pair of shoe shorts.

[Manola Darcis]

Asterisks, man. You've got to put it with asterisks. That's what I'm saying. He's a disreputable character, as some of the most interesting characters are. I mean, it's a very aggressive performance and. And I don't know where we are in this stage of American movie going, but people just seem to have a really hard time with characters who are spiky and barbed. This is a complicated, interesting movie about what is the American dream for this very specific person. And in one of my favorite sequences.

[Michael Barbaro]

Yes, tell us about one.

[Manola Darcis]

He goes after the ultimate shiksa. I mean, you know, Gwyneth Paltrow. I mean, it's just like. Like I don't even know, like, what her. What her identity is, but she's like.

[Michael Barbaro]

She's definitely not Jewish in this movie.

[Manola Darcis]

She's playing someone, you know, a retired actress who's married an extremely wealthy, a disgusting man. And Timothee Chalamet sees her in a hotel and just zeroes in on her.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

K speaking. Hey, it's Marty Mauser. I'm in the Royal Suite. I saw you in the lobby yesterday. Okay. Yeah, we made eye contact.

[Manola Darcis]

I was being interviewed in this great scene. He's checked himself into a hotel he cannot afford. He's trying to get someone else to pay for it. And he calls her up. He just cold calls her and starts fast talking. Thought it would be.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

You know, I'm something of a performer too.

[Manola Darcis]

Are you?

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Yeah. You don't believe me?

[Manola Darcis]

And we see him and he just looks absurd. He's standing on his bed in his room wearing a bathrobe in his boxer shorts and socks. This is you?

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Yeah. The chosen one. It's a nice picture, right?

[Michael Barbaro]

Ping pong.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Well, I play table tennis.

[Manola Darcis]

Yeah. And he's just talking a mile a minute, trying to seduce this woman. And she hangs up on him. He calls back, and he manages to convince her I do, you know, to meet up.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Here's what's gonna happen. I'm gonna make an apple appear in that bowl. And if I do, you're gonna blow off your little rendezvous.

[Manola Darcis]

No, no.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

And come watch me play.

[Manola Darcis]

I'm. No, I'm not agreeing to anything. All right.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

We don't have to agree to anything. I'm gonna do it anyway.

[AT&T Business Wireless Salesperson]

Okay.

[Manola Darcis]

And they do.

[Michael Barbaro]

Do they ever.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

I'll leave a ticket for you at the box office.

[Manola Darcis]

It's a very exuberant out there and exuberant out there performance.

[Michael Barbaro]

It's a hard thing to play a character this unlikable and not make the movie totally unlikable.

[Manola Darcis]

Exactly right. You really need to bring in some warmth, what they call it relatability and charm. And I actually think that Chalamet does do all of that. We're just not used to such abrasive heroes in American movies at this point. But I think that he's absolutely charming in this film as well.

[Michael Barbaro]

I have to agree with you. Let us now turn to Michael B. Jordan and his performance in Sinners.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

More time I spend with y', all, the less sure I am you boys are serious about it. Ain't no boys here. I just grown men with grown men. Money and grown men bullets.

[Manola Darcis]

In Sinners, Michael B. Jordan plays identical twins through the magic of cinema. One named Smoke and the other one named Stack.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

We've been gone a long time, Stack. Seven years ain't long enough to forget about us.

[Manola Darcis]

It's very seamlessly done and very beautiful.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Love you. Love you too. Be careful. I will.

[Manola Darcis]

And they are basically gangsters and they've returned to their hometown in the Mississippi Delta and they open a juke joint. There's a lot happening in this movie. You know, it's a horror movie specifically. There's a. You know, there's a vampire, an Irish. An ancient Irish vampire. And that vampire, it really embodies kind of a exploitation of black culture, black cultural history, you know, everything. And so the movie is incredibly ambitious.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

No mother Everything gonna be all right now.

[Manola Darcis]

And one of the things I really love about Jordan's performance, beyond the fact that he actually is able to create two very distinct characters and make them work in a very complimentary fashion, is that he really inhabits each one and gives each very specific personality. And Smoke, there's this great scene where Smoke visits his wife.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

How you been? No misery's worth complaining about.

[Manola Darcis]

And they haven't seen each other for a while and they have really very painful, tragic history.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

I ain't never saw no roots, no demons, no ghosts, no magic. Just power.

[Manola Darcis]

And it's a. Basically you're watching two people rediscover each other.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

How you know I ain't brave and work every route My grandmama taught me to keep you and that crazy brother your safe Every day since you've been

[Manola Darcis]

gone and so what you're watching is a kind of renewed courtship. You know, you're watching two people refind each other and fall in love again and then fall into each other's arms.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

It still hurts coming back here, but I love you and I miss you.

[Manola Darcis]

And then it gets, well, smoking hot. I mean, his name is Smoke, I guess, you know.

[Michael Barbaro]

Yeah, they have. They have quite a profound, amorous encounter.

[Manola Darcis]

Yes, it's beautifully done.

[Michael Barbaro]

And just to say that is one half of the performance, because there's literally two performances in this one actor's performance in this movie.

[Manola Darcis]

Absolutely.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay. The last person in our potential likely to win best Actor category, and he's only playing one role, is Ethan Hawke in the film Blue Moon.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Okay, Best line in Casablanca. Oh, nobody ever loved me that much. Isn't that magnificent? Six words. Nobody ever loved me that much. And really, who's ever been loved enough? Who's ever been loved half enough? Would you get me a shot?

[Michael Barbaro]

So talk about that performance.

[Manola Darcis]

Well, this is a movie takes largely takes place on one night, very, very important evening. It's March 31, 1943, and we are with the lyricist Lorenz Hart, who, with the composer Richard Rogers, wrote a bunch of important musicals like Pal Joey, as well as the title song Blue Moon. At this point, though, Hart is a wreck. He's an alcoholic. And Rogers has a new partner named Oscar Hammerstein ii. And they have a new musical that Hart has just walked out of, a little thing called Oklahoma.

[Michael Barbaro]

With an exclamation point, as he repeatedly says throughout the film. Fact.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Any title that feels the need for an exclamation point you want to steer clear of.

[Manola Darcis]

There's a lack of vanity here that I love in the performance because Ethan Hawke has been made to look very sad. He has. He's very short. They cheat his height all the time. He looks like he's in a suit that it looks too big for him. He looks like he at times is literally shrinking before our eyes. And that actually really almost seems to happen when he has a confrontation. It's friendly, but it's very needy and needling. With Richard Rogers, played by Andrew Scott.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

I remember when I first heard about you, you were just Morty Rogers little brother. What, you were 17, 16? Yeah, I was 2312, John. Yeah, you were the wise old man on the mountain. But when I first heard you play your stuff, I knew you had it. I wasn't entirely.

[Manola Darcis]

We are just basically watching Hart kind of debase himself, groveling. And yet he's so proud.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

I'm right here, right now. Ready to work.

[Manola Darcis]

And you see these warring emotions in Hawke's performance and in his face.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

I don't need to go back to doctor's hospital and I don't need a psychiatrist either, thank you very much. Who's we?

[Manola Darcis]

You see the face harden, soften, almost collapse in and on itself.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

I am sorry. I don't care if somebody attacks me. He doesn't mean anything to me, but nobody can attack me. My work, it is all I've done.

[Manola Darcis]

It's really quite remarkable, right?

[Michael Barbaro]

It is such a profoundly sad performance because you're watching someone who believe themselves to be so great and to have such an enduring legacy recognize that he's been bested. And it's very, very tragic.

[Manola Darcis]

It is. Yet at the same time, there is a lovely kind of restraint where you're not hit over the head with the tragedy. You know, Hart is very funn. He has a lacerating wit. He is an entertainer. He wants to entertain and seduce. So he is leading with a kind of enthusiasm and a brio. And at the same time we can see the neediness and the desperation. So all of that, that little war is always there.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

And hey, fellas, just for the record,

[Michael Barbaro]

the corn is as high as an elephant's eye is the stupidest lyric in the history of American songwriting. Yes, it makes perfect sense.

[Manola Darcis]

You know, Hawk is a much greater and much more interesting actor than he was when he was cute and didn't have as many lines on his face. Some of us, you know, we improve with age. You know, his history is in his face, the lines, the age, what he's been through as a human being. Hawk is basically tapping into all that and then adding his interpretation of this man who is soon going to depart. Right.

[Michael Barbaro]

Well, because I would like to maintain some version of the will versus should construct here. Who do you think should win of these three?

[Manola Darcis]

I really would like. It's more about. What I like would be Ethan Hawke. I think it's a magnificent performance, but I also think that Michael B. Jordan is wonderful. I don't. You know, it's one of these times which just again, because it's such a rich group of performances, performances that, you know, it's very, very difficult to. To do our usual binary where we should, you know,

[Michael Barbaro]

Let's take a break and when we come back, we will talk about the main event, the last award, or the second to last award of what is always an incredibly long evening, which is Best picture.

[American Petroleum Institute Sponsor]

This podcast is supported by the American Petroleum Institute. Energy is all around today, America's Natural gas and oil keeps the country moving, growing and building and makes every day a little easier. But energy demand is growing, and the infrastructure built today will help secure a more affordable, reliable future. With enough energy to go around. When America builds, America wins.

[AT&T Business Wireless Salesperson]

Not every sale happens at the register. Before AT&T business Wireless, checking out customers on our mobile POS systems took too long. Basically a staring contest where everyone loses. It's crazy what people will say during an awkward silence. Now transactions are done before the silence takes hold. That means I can focus on the task at hand and make an extra sale or two. Sometimes I do miss the bonding time. Sometimes.

[Michael Barbaro]

AT&T business Wireless connecting changes everything. I'm opening up Crossplay. I've been playing against Dan, my colleague

[Manola Darcis]

at the New York Times. Kat's played another move.

[Kevin Roos or Casey Newton]

Ugh.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

She played Stoop for 36 points.

[Michael Barbaro]

I've got a Z which is 10 points.

[Manola Darcis]

I'm guessing Tenga is not a word.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Let's see.

[Michael Barbaro]

Tenga is a word. Oh, Dan played his last turn.

[Manola Darcis]

Let's see who won.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

It's so close.

[Manola Darcis]

But I did win Crossplay, the first two player word game from New York Times Games. Download it for free today.

[Michael Barbaro]

It's devastating when you see a game that you could have won. Manola. We are now at the best picture phase of this conversation. And you had mentioned earlier that this was a year when big studios took some big risks. And two of those risky films which you had mentioned, one battle after another and Sinners ended up being films that you really like as a critic, which is pretty great on top of the fact that both did quite well at the box office. So let's talk about these two films as best picture contenders. And I think because we already talked about Sinners, let's start with one battle after another.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Listen, I got HMEs, I got mortars, I got tear gas, I got whatever you guys need. But I'm unclear as to what the plan is. I need some direction. Don't be unclear. I got a plan for us.

[American Petroleum Institute Sponsor]

What is it?

[Manola Darcis]

This is a Paul Thomas Anderson experience. It follows a group of would be revolutionaries, including Leonardo DiCaprio, who sits actually wonderful in this movie. And he plays Bob. Bob is a total burnout. You know, he's just basically drinking and getting stoned on his couch while he's raising his. His daughter. Willa.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

How did you get home? Well, with my car. You drove.

[American Petroleum Institute Sponsor]

So what?

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

What are you, my babysitter?

[American Petroleum Institute Sponsor]

What?

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

What?

[Michael Barbaro]

What?

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Yeah, I know how to drink and drive, honey. I know what I'm doing.

[Manola Darcis]

He Has a nemesis played. Also a wonderful performance, Sean Penn, who basically goes after them. And we follow Leonardo DiCaprio's character as he basically goes underground and tries to rescue his daughter who's been taken. And he doesn't know where his daughter is.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

You have her phone number, man?

[American Petroleum Institute Sponsor]

No.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Everybody knows she has a phone number. Everybody knows she has. Why didn't she tell me she has a phone? Maybe she's not. She's not allowed to have a goddamn phone. Well, maybe she didn't want you to get mad. I don't get mad. I don't get mad about anything anymore.

[Manola Darcis]

It's a really shocking movie in some ways because it is about people who believe that there is a better America and are fighting for it, but they're actually. Some people would call. Characterize them as terrorists. Other people would just call them as revolutionaries. And I think that one of the reasons that it really kind of grabbed audiences is it seemed to be speaking to conflicts that we are all reading about.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

There's about 250, 275 people in there. It's hard to count.

[Manola Darcis]

The opening sequence, you find, begins with a bunch of revolutionaries basically rescuing some people who have been seized by the United States military. And I just remember when I first saw the movie, everyone got really, really quiet in the audience. I think everyone was shocked because it felt like you were almost watching a dramatization of something that had just happened yester yesterday.

[Michael Barbaro]

But for all that seriousness, it's also a rather goofy movie at times.

[Manola Darcis]

Oh, gloriously so. I mean, it is not a solemn eat your vegetables movie. You know, it is a movie that is kind of suggesting that the other side of tragedy is comedy. That however tragic this can seem, it's also goofy. There's a great scene where DiCaprio's character is now on the run. He is trying to connect with his old comrades and he makes a phone call.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Rise and shine. Pat an eyelash.

[Michael Barbaro]

Good morning.

[Manola Darcis]

There's a series of codes and he forgets what he's supposed to tell the other person. What time is it?

[Michael Barbaro]

Ah, fuck.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

You know, I don't. I don't. I don't remember that part. All right, let's just not nitpick over the password stuff. Look, this is Bob.

[Manola Darcis]

You can't remember, man. It's been so long. Speak.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

I only remember half of this shit and this stupid fucking hotline, which was a fucking miracle. So stop fucking with me and give me the fucking rendezvous point.

[Kevin Roos or Casey Newton]

Well, maybe you should have said.

[Manola Darcis]

Yeah, I just can't remember I just need. And it's gloriously funny. Call us back when you have the time. What?

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Did you. You just fucking hang up on me, you fucking liberal fucking prick?

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay, so that's one battle after another when it comes to sinners. Manola, since you've already extolled its virtues through the performance of Michael B. Jordan, I wonder if you can talk us through a scene or a dimension of the film beyond that performance that helps people understand why it may win Best Picture.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Oh, ho, ho, ho, ho, ho. Hold up, hold up Tell me who you are we frown.

[Manola Darcis]

There is a scene in the middle of the movie that I think is a masterpiece.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

I'm. Send me more.

[Manola Darcis]

And I think it really displays Coogler's cinematic genius.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Sugar Copper from Sunflower Plantation.

[Manola Darcis]

And part of what makes this movie so moving, because it's not just that it is an entertaining movie, it's an extremely rich movie in terms of how it is dealing with history.

[Actor/Character from discussed films]

Something I've been wanting to tell you for a long time.

[Manola Darcis]

It's a scene where we're. Now, the jute joint is open, and there's a young bluesman named Sammy. And he starts to play a song. And the camera starts moving around the room as he is singing. And suddenly you hear a little bit of electric guitar. And then you see somebody who looks like he could be out of a 1970s funk band. And then the camera just keeps on going as this blue blues song is playing. And you see B Boys, you see a DJ at a turntable. You actually see a modern ballerina. Time and space kind of collapse. And you get a sense of the great arc of history that takes us from Africa to Mississippi and all of the culture and all the people that have led us to this moment and are pointing us toward the future, where a young filmmaker named Ryan Coogler will pick up a camera and make one of the great American movies. It's part of what's so interesting is that Sinners and One Battle After Another are two movies that are speaking to the American experience in a way that American cinema doesn't necessarily do, particularly from the big studio. These movies feel urgent to us. You know, I mean, they feel really urgent to me. And they really seem to be speaking about what it is to be an American at this moment in time. And I think that's part of why audiences have been so receptive to them as well.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right. So in both Sinners and One Battle After Another, we've been talking about films that a lot of people saw. I wonder, to end our Best Picture conversation. If there is a nominee that maybe wasn't as big of a hit, but something that you think our listeners really should see and understand.

[Manola Darcis]

Oh, well, it's the Secret Agent, which is a Brazilian film from one of my favorite directors. And also I just want to say, former film critic Cleber Mendoza Figlio. This is a movie that opens in 1977 during the military dictatorship and we are following a former professor who has basically gone underground. One of the absolute delights of this movie is that you, I can guarantee you will never know what is gonna happen next, which is just absolutely so welcome. It goes from moments of outrageous, almost kind of burlesque comedy. There is literally a severed leg jumping around and kicking people in this movie. But it's also about what is it like to live under oppression, political oppression, and it's about coming together with like minded souls in order to survive. It's very moving on that level. He is a wonderful filmmaker and people should really check this movie out.

[Michael Barbaro]

So, Manola, when you look at this slate of movies, and particularly these movies like Sinners and One Battle After Another, what do they leave you feeling exactly about the always in jeopardy future of Hollywood?

[Manola Darcis]

Well, I think, you know, one of the things that I would hope is that movie executives would look at this lineup and look at the success of these movies and say, gee whiz, actually, maybe people want movies that are very well made and say something about the world that we live in. Maybe actually we don't want to watch movies that are completely divorced from reality the way that so many American, you know, big. The big blockbusters often are. I think it would be really nice if the movie executives got in line with the movie audiences at some point.

[Michael Barbaro]

I feel like this is going to be the first Oscars in a very long time where you may not actually be screaming at the television.

[Manola Darcis]

I can always call you Michael and start yelling if you need me to. I am available for speed dial Anger, you know.

[Michael Barbaro]

Well, I really can't wait for that Manola.

[Manola Darcis]

Sure.

[Michael Barbaro]

Thank you so very much. This was a real treat. Today's episode was produced by Alex Baron with help from Luke Van Der Plug and Tina Antolini. It was edited by Wendy Doerr and engineered by Sophia Landman. It contains music by Dan Powell, Pat McCusker and Marian Lozano. Our production manager is Franny Carr Toth. That's it for the Daily on Sunday. I'm Michael Mobaro. See you tomorrow.

[American Petroleum Institute Sponsor]

This podcast is supported by the American Petroleum Institute. Energy is all around today. America's natural gas and oil keeps the country moving, growing and building and makes every day a little easier. But energy demand is growing, and the infrastructure built today will help secure a more affordable, reliable future. With enough energy to go around, when America builds, America wins.