Podcast Summary: The Daily - "Peace in Ukraine Is Harder Than Trump Thought"

Episode Information

• Title: Peace in Ukraine Is Harder Than Trump Thought
• Host: The New York Times
• Host/Author: Rachel Abrams
• Guest: Michael Crowley
• Release Date: May 21, 2025

1. Introduction to the Conflict and Trump's Role

Rachel Abrams opens the episode by highlighting President Donald Trump's initial confidence in negotiating an end to Russia's war in Ukraine. Contrary to his belief that securing peace would be straightforward, Trump's efforts have proven more complex and frustrating than anticipated.

2. Fallout from the Trump-Zelensky Meeting

Following a contentious meeting in the Oval Office between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, tensions escalated. Michael Crowley explains that Trump's public beratement of Zelensky led to significant panic among Ukrainians and their allies.

Michael Crowley [02:46]: "Trump declared that Ukraine was not ready for a peace deal... and, you know, what was happening was not only was Trump castigating Zelensky... but accelerating his diplomacy with Moscow..."

Trump's approach included suspending U.S. military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, simultaneously expressing eagerness to mend relations with Russia, which alarmed Ukrainian supporters.

3. Zelensky's Strategic Response

In response to Trump's actions, Zelensky adjusted his public stance, becoming more cautious in his statements about the U.S. and enhancing behind-the-scenes diplomacy. European leaders like British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and France's Emmanuel Macron played pivotal roles in mediating between Trump and Ukrainian officials.

Michael Crowley [05:00]: "Zelensky and Ukraine very cleverly shift their posture... Ukraine agrees on March 11 to a US proposal for a 30 day ceasefire with Russia..."

4. The Shift Toward Negotiation and Early Challenges

Ukraine's willingness to entertain a ceasefire marked a significant strategic move. The Trump administration responded by lifting the suspension on military aid, hoping to incentivize further negotiations. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin's reluctance to engage in substantial concessions quickly led to the collapse of the initial ceasefire.

Michael Crowley [06:16]: "Putin is not looking for the grand deal that Trump has in mind... Trump has been promising since he was a candidate for president."

5. Escalation of Frustration and Signs of Trump's Impatience

As Russian military actions intensified, including targeted strikes on Ukrainian cities, Trump's frustration became evident. A notable instance was his post on Truth Social following a major attack on Kyiv, demanding the peace deal be completed.

Michael Crowley [08:36]: "This is the strongest language we've ever seen from Trump up until this point."

Despite earlier defenses of Putin, Trump's subsequent remarks indicated a shift to blame Putin for the prolonged conflict.

6. Unexpected Meeting Between Trump and Zelensky

Amidst rising tensions, Trump and Zelensky had an unexpected one-on-one meeting during Pope Francis's funeral at the Vatican. The encounter was notably private, with photographs capturing the two leaders in a serious yet non-confrontational dialogue.

Michael Crowley [10:01]: "This picture of the two of them said so much... they were having a serious conversation."

7. The Mineral Deal and Trump's Diminishing Patience

Shortly after the Vatican meeting, the Trump administration secured a deal granting the U.S. access to Ukraine's critical minerals. While some viewed this as self-serving, Ukrainians saw it as beneficial, tying U.S. interests more closely to Ukraine's future. Meanwhile, Putin remained steadfast, continuing military operations without making significant concessions.

Michael Crowley [11:00]: "And something that's ominous for Vladimir Putin is... Trump again complains about Russian missile strikes... he decided he needs to talk to Putin..."

8. The Pivotal Call Between Trump and Putin

The culmination of these developments was a two-hour phone call between Presidents Trump and Putin. The disparity in their approaches was evident: Trump, with considerable media attention, called from the White House, while Putin, nonchalantly, called from a school in Sochi.

Michael Crowley [14:35]: "Putin did not announce the call... he seems to be squeezing it into his schedule."

During the call, Putin described the conversation as "informative and open," while Trump maintained a more optimistic outlook, though he expressed clear frustration.

Donald Trump [15:54]: "When are we going to end this bloodshed, this bloodbath? It's a bloodbath."

Despite Trump's effort to pin the onus on Putin, his remarks suggested a potential waning of his commitment to mediating peace.

Michael Crowley [16:25]: "It seems that he's reaching a point where he's ready to just wash his hands of both of them again."

9. Implications for U.S. Support to Ukraine

The uncertainty surrounding Trump's commitment poses significant questions about the future of U.S. support for Ukraine. While current assistance continues, the long-term sustainability, especially if the U.S. steps back, remains uncertain. Analysts warn that reduced support could weaken Ukraine's position against Russian advances.

Michael Crowley [18:00]: "The question is, what will happen a few weeks and months from now if Trump decides he wants to wash his hands of these negotiations?"

10. Trump's Negotiation Style and Global Perception

Michael Crowley delves into Trump's negotiation tactics, highlighting his penchant for deal-making, sometimes without substantial outcomes. Trump's public bravado contrasts with his more subdued and strategic interactions during actual negotiations.

Michael Crowley [19:45]: "One of them is that what animates Trump possibly more than anything else, is the desire to cut a deal."

This dynamic has left other global leaders observing closely, trying to discern Trump's true motivations and capabilities in international diplomacy.

11. Conclusion: The Stalemate and Future Prospects

The episode concludes with reflections on the ongoing stalemate. Trump's potential disengagement contrasts sharply with Putin's enduring commitment to the conflict, positioning Russia to possibly gain the upper hand should U.S. support diminish.

Rachel Abrams [23:23]: "It looks like that might be exactly what's happening."

The evolving situation underscores the complexities of international diplomacy and the unpredictable nature of leadership dynamics in times of conflict.

Notable Quotes:

• Michael Crowley [02:46]: "Trump declared that Ukraine was not ready for a peace deal... but accelerating his diplomacy with Moscow..."

• Michael Crowley [05:00]: "Ukraine agrees on March 11 to a US proposal for a 30 day ceasefire with Russia..."

• Michael Crowley [08:36]: "This is the strongest language we've ever seen from Trump up until this point."

• Donald Trump [15:54]: "When are we going to end this bloodshed, this bloodbath? It's a bloodbath."

• Michael Crowley [19:45]: "What animates Trump possibly more than anything else, is the desire to cut a deal."

This episode provides an in-depth analysis of the intricate dance between President Trump, President Putin, and President Zelensky, revealing the challenges and setbacks in mediating peace in Ukraine. It underscores the limitations of Trump's approach and the resilience of Russia's strategic objectives, painting a nuanced picture of international relations in a time of conflict.