The Daily – "Putin’s War Machine"
Date: September 9, 2025
Host: Natalie Kitroeff
Guest: Anatoly Khmelev, Moscow correspondent
Episode Overview
This episode explores how Vladimir Putin has transformed Russia’s war strategy and economy to sustain its offensive in Ukraine. Natalie Kitroeff speaks with Moscow correspondent Anatoly Khmelev, who details the mechanisms behind Russia’s unexpected resilience: from mass mobilization tactics and battlefield economics to the global energy market's role in propping up the Kremlin’s military ambitions. The conversation also delves into how these changes affect both Russia's domestic landscape and global diplomacy—particularly under President Trump’s new policies.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. The Western Miscalculation about Russia’s Collapse
[01:21–02:45]
- Early in the war, much of the West anticipated the imminent collapse of Russia, predicting not only military failure but potential state disintegration.
- Anatoly highlights how these expectations missed crucial internal Russian dynamics that allowed Putin to maintain and even strengthen his position.
“The images that the world saw ... pointed to Russia's imminent collapse. ... They were missing the broader picture and the forces that Putin was mastering to stay in this fight.”
— Anatoly Khmelev [01:50]
- Fast-forward to 2025, Putin is diplomatically active (even visiting the U.S.), and Russia appears increasingly self-assured on the world stage.
2. Evidence of Russian Gains: Why Putin Holds the Upper Hand
[03:46–05:02]
- Territorial creep: Russia is making slow but steady advances, straining Ukraine’s defenses.
- Russian drone production has overtaken Ukraine’s.
- Russia is winning the war of attrition: outspending and outproducing Ukraine in military assets and personnel.
“In a war that's largely been deadlocked, the Russian advances over ... the summer offensive have been significant. … It is winning the economic war.”
— Anatoly Khmelev [03:46]
3. Mechanisms of Military Mobilization: From Draft to Faustian Deal
[05:02–10:59]
The Draft and Its Fallout
[05:26–08:29]
- In September 2022, Putin initiated Russia’s first large-scale military draft since WWII, mobilizing 300,000 men.
- The move was deeply unpopular, sparking mass discontent and mass exodus of young men.
- Despite being politically risky, Putin “rode out the initial discontent” and stabilized the front.
Transition to Volunteer/Contract Soldiering
[08:29–09:42]
- Putin pivoted to a financially incentivized volunteer army, offering life-altering sums to entice recruits from underserved populations.
- Sign-up bonuses reach $65,000, with salaries 10 times previous military pay, plus payouts for combat achievements and injuries—a level of transactional incentivization bordering on mercenary work.
“A Russian man today would receive about $65,000 as a bonus, as a signing up bonus. Then every month he would receive about $3,000 salary. … Military service ... has given an opportunity to working class Russian men to earn sums that would be completely unimaginable for them in civilian life.”
— Anatoly Khmelev [09:10]
Social and Political Implications of ‘Choosing’ War
[13:24–14:34]
- Volunteers are less likely to provoke social unrest upon their death—society views them as individuals who knowingly made a deal, as opposed to conscripts forcibly taken.
- Approximately 1,000 men recruited daily, enough to replenish and expand Russian forces.
4. Funding the War: Oil, Sanctions, and Putin’s Economic Foresight
[15:26–21:48]
Financial Strategy
[17:41–19:11]
- Since coming to power, Putin maintained strict fiscal discipline, amassing reserves during high oil price years.
- Upon invading Ukraine, he "untied the purse strings," dramatically increasing government spending, which not only fuels the military but also supports civilian economic stability.
“All this money that has been saved up over years, decades, starts flooding in to the country. … If you're not direct[ly] involved in the horrors of the war, chances are that you're living better today than you have lived before the invasion.”
— Anatoly Khmelev [17:41, 18:46]
The Limits of Western Sanctions
[19:11–20:13]
- Sanctions have been ineffective at curbing Russia’s key oil and gas revenues, as the "Global South" (especially China and India) continues to buy Russian exports.
- India’s oil imports from Russia jumped from near-zero to 40% of its supply, driven by economic benefit rather than political alliance.
Impact of Global Political Shifts
[21:00–21:48]
- President Trump’s efforts to block Russian oil sales (e.g., tariffs on India) have had minimal effect, as India and others have resisted U.S. pressure.
- Instead, such moves may encourage more nations to economically align with, or tolerate, Russia.
5. War’s Sustainability and Its Risks
[21:48–28:13]
- Russia's war machine, propped up by cash and recruits, could sustain current levels for another year; Putin bets he can outlast Ukrainian and Western stamina.
- Western diplomatic postures are shifting: under Trump, the U.S. is now more receptive to concessions and Russian demands, pressuring Kyiv to consider territorial losses.
- Domestic risks loom: Russia’s “military Keynesianism” is unsustainable. The economy is heavily distorted by war spending; civilian sectors are neglected (“tanks and bullets came at the cost of toilet paper and food” [26:38]).
“We are talking about much more than just demographical losses. ... [Russia] has created an economy that has become addicted to military spending.”
— Anatoly Khmelev [25:46]
- Socially, the post-war return of hundreds of thousands of veterans with expectations of entitlements could create a sociopolitical crisis, echoing demobilization woes after the Soviet-Afghan war—but on a far larger scale.
“The victory that Putin is on course for achieving in Ukraine in the long run may really show its shallowness and confine Russia to a perpetual decline as opposed to glory that he's envisioning.”
— Anatoly Khmelev [29:37]
Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments
-
On the fundamental deal in Russian troop mobilization:
"It was a jackpot, a Faustian deal, so to speak, that gave these men tickets to the middle class in return for sacrificing their health and possibly life."
— Anatoly Khmelev [10:19] -
On global sanctions and energy politics:
“[Sanctions] have not closed Russia's ability to continue selling its natural resources. … The main line was that we stand with Kyiv no matter what ... under Trump, this has begun to change … accepting the fact that as a country that's winning on the battlefield, it has no incentives to stop fighting.”
— Anatoly Khmelev [19:26, 23:20] -
On postwar risks:
"The cost of this war will be felt by generations of Russians to come. … It has severed its ties with the West. … An economy where only military production is growing at the expense of everything else."
— Anatoly Khmelev [25:46]
Important Timestamps by Segment
- 01:50–03:23: What the West missed about Russia’s resilience
- 03:46–05:02: Evidence of Russia gaining the upper hand
- 05:30–08:29: The 2022 draft and its impact
- 08:29–11:40: From forced conscription to paid volunteerism
- 11:44–13:24: Personal stories from Russian recruits
- 15:26–19:11: How Putin finances the war
- 19:26–21:48: The limited effect of sanctions and new trade partners
- 22:08–23:03: Russia’s long-game and resource war
- 23:20–24:37: Shifts in Western—especially US—diplomacy under Trump
- 25:46–29:37: Socioeconomic fallout and the risks ahead for Russia
Tone and Language
The episode maintains a sober, analytic tone, with insights drawn from on-the-ground reporting and economic analysis. Khmelev’s perspectives blend personal experience, economic data, and cultural insight, resulting in a summary that is both clear-eyed and deeply informed about the stakes on all sides.
Summary prepared for listeners and readers seeking a comprehensive grasp of Putin’s evolving war machine—and where this path may ultimately lead Russia and the world.