Republicans Take Control of Congress — and Harris Certifies Her Own Loss

Summary

The Daily: Republicans Take Control of Congress — and Harris Certifies Her Own Loss

Release Date: January 7, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of The Daily by The New York Times, hosts Michael Barbaro and Julian Barnes explore the seismic shift in American politics as Republicans gain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Titled "Republicans Take Control of Congress — and Harris Certifies Her Own Loss," the episode delves into the implications of this takeover, the internal dynamics within the Republican Party, and the broader impact on the nation's legislative landscape.

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Certification of the Presidential Election

The episode begins with Julian Barnes providing context on the formal process of certifying electoral votes. He emphasizes the significance of Vice President Kamala Harris overseeing the ceremony where Congress, under Republican control, officially certifies the election results. Barnes remarks, “If the New York Times was not reporting these stories, some of them might never come to light” ([00:00]), highlighting the crucial role of journalism in democratic processes.

Barnes details the atmosphere during the certification, noting, “It was a pretty stark scene… as one by one lawmakers stand up and they are announcing the states that she won as a presidential candidate, but they're also announcing the states that she lost” ([02:43]). This certification marked a historic moment as Harris formally acknowledged Donald Trump's victory, solidifying the peaceful transfer of power.

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Republican Leadership Struggles in the House

Michael Barbaro shifts the conversation to the internal conflicts within the newly Republican-controlled House. He introduces the central figure of the episode, Speaker Mike Johnson, and the challenges he faces from ultra-conservative members of his party. Barnes explains, “there are some pretty raw divisions within the House Republican Conference that are likely going to animate this Congress moving forward” ([04:37]).

The struggle culminated in the contentious election of Speaker Johnson. Barnes narrates the tense proceedings on the House floor, where several Republican members, including Representative Andy Biggs of Arizona, initially refused to acknowledge their votes, signaling deep dissent ([07:40]). This defiance underscored the fragility of Johnson’s support within his own party.

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Intervention by Former President Trump

As Speaker Johnson grappled with securing enough votes, former President Donald Trump intervened directly. Barnes recounts, “His message was, look, Mike is the only guy who has the votes to become speaker” ([11:06]). This intervention was pivotal in persuading holdout Republicans, Keith Self of Texas and Ralph Norman of South Carolina, to support Johnson. Despite their reservations, these members conceded, allowing Johnson to secure the speakership.

However, only minutes after Johnson's election, the House Freedom Caucus issued a public letter expressing their conditional support: “We voted for Mike Johnson for Speaker of the House because of our steadfast support of President Trump… despite our sincere reservations regarding the Speaker's track record” ([13:46]). This letter signaled ongoing tensions and set the stage for future conflicts within the Republican majority.

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Implications for the Republican Legislative Agenda

Barnes and Barbaro discuss the ambitious legislative agenda Republicans aim to pursue under their new control. They highlight key priorities such as raising the debt limit, enacting deep spending cuts, extending the 2017 tax cuts, and implementing stringent immigration reforms. Barnes outlines the complexity of this agenda: “How do you implement all these policies that are going to cost a lot of money while cutting a bunch of programs” ([27:27]).

The hosts analyze the strategic use of budget reconciliation, a parliamentary procedure that allows passage of budget-related bills with a simple majority in the Senate. Barnes warns of the inherent challenges: “this essentially becomes sort of a seesaw from hell” ([26:54]), emphasizing the difficulty in balancing expansive policy goals with fiscal restraint.

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Senate Leadership Transition

Shifting focus to the Senate, the episode highlights the leadership transition from Mitch McConnell to Senator John Thune of South Dakota. Barnes explains, “Senate Majority Leader soon… he is going to be the question of this Congress” ([22:07]). Unlike the House, where leadership battles were public and contentious, the Senate's selection process was more subdued, conducted via secret ballot.

Barnes contrasts Thune’s leadership with that of his challenger, Senator Rick Scott of Florida, a staunch MAGA supporter. He notes, “Thune was seen as an institutionalist... someone who wanted to guard the Senate's independence as an institution” ([21:28]). This choice reflects the Senate's preference for stability and continuity over overt political alignment with Trump.

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Future Prospects and Challenges

The episode concludes with a forward-looking analysis of how the Republican-controlled Congress and President Trump might interact. Barnes posits that while Republicans hold significant power, internal divisions and high expectations could impede legislative progress. He states, “If he doesn't deliver for especially these conservative fiscal House Republicans, they may decide one day to wake up and toss him out” ([17:45]), suggesting that Speaker Johnson’s leadership will be continually tested.

Additionally, Barnes reflects on the historical context, contrasting the chaos of January 6th with the current orderly certification, and the surprising turnaround in voter sentiment favoring Trump after initial resistance within the party: “it's a remarkable turnabout” ([29:20]).

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Notable Quotes

• Julian Barnes on the role of journalism: “If the New York Times was not reporting these stories, some of them might never come to light.” ([00:00])

• Barnes on Speaker Johnson’s challenges: “there are some pretty raw divisions within the House Republican Conference that are likely going to animate this Congress moving forward.” ([04:37])

• Former President Trump’s intervention: “Mike is the only guy who has the votes to become speaker.” ([11:06])

• Freedom Caucus' conditional support: “We voted for Mike Johnson for Speaker of the House because of our steadfast support of President Trump… despite our sincere reservations regarding the Speaker's track record.” ([13:46])

• Barnes on legislative challenges: “How do you implement all these policies that are going to cost a lot of money while cutting a bunch of programs.” ([27:27])

• On Senate leadership: “Thune was seen as an institutionalist... someone who wanted to guard the Senate's independence as an institution.” ([21:28])

• On Speaker Johnson’s precarious position: “If he doesn't deliver for especially these conservative fiscal House Republicans, they may decide one day to wake up and toss him out.” ([17:45])

• Reflecting on political shifts: “it's a remarkable turnabout.” ([29:20])

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Conclusion

This episode of The Daily offers a comprehensive examination of the Republican ascendancy in Congress and the multifaceted challenges that lie ahead. Through nuanced discussions and insightful commentary, Michael Barbaro and Julian Barnes illuminate the intricate power dynamics, legislative hurdles, and the evolving relationship between the Republican leadership and former President Trump. As the new Congress embarks on its legislative journey, the episode provides listeners with a profound understanding of the potential trajectories and obstacles shaping the future of American politics.

Transcript

[Julian Barnes]

Julian I'm Julian Barnes. I'm an intelligence reporter at the New York Times. I try to find out what the US Government is keeping secret. It takes a lot of time to find people willing to talk about those secrets. It requires talking to a lot of people to make sure that we're not misled and that we give a complete story to our readers. If the New York Times was not reporting these stories, some of them might never come to light. If you want to support this kind of work, you can do that by subscribing to the New York Times.

[Michael Bavaro]

From the New York Times, I'm Michael Bavaro. This is the Daily Today. During its first few days in power, the Republican controlled House and Senate have vowed to put aside their furious intra party battles to make Donald Trump's sweeping agenda the law of the land. I spoke with my colleague Katie Edmondson about how likely that actually is. It's Tuesday, January 7th. So Katie, take us, if you would, inside the House chamber on Monday afternoon for this pretty momentous ceremony.

[Julian Barnes]

Well, I think today's ceremony really underscored what is supposed to be the pro forma nature of the January 6th congressional counting of electoral votes. This is a performative ritual in which Congress counts the electoral votes from each state and certifies the election of whoever won the presidency. Obviously, if your first introduction to this ceremony was four years ago, you had a very different view of what happened on that day.

[Michael Bavaro]

Indeed.

[Julian Barnes]

And so today's counting of electoral votes really was what was supposed to happen. The House come to order.

[Michael Bavaro]

The Senate and House of Representatives are.

[Julian Barnes]

Meeting in joint session to verify the certificates and count the votes of the electors of the several states for president and vice President of the United States. You had Vice President Kamala Harris overseeing the entire ceremony, overseeing essentially Congress certifying her own loss.

[Michael Bavaro]

The certificate of the electoral vote of the state of Maryland, see, seems to.

[Julian Barnes]

Be regular in form and authentic. And it appears therefrom that Kamala D.

[Michael Bavaro]

Harris of the state of California received.

[Julian Barnes]

10 votes for president and Tim Walls of the state of Minnesota received 10 votes for vice president. And you had a pretty stark scene, I think, in which she's standing there sort of staring straight ahead as one by one lawmakers stand up and they are announcing the states that she won as a presidential candidate, but they're also announcing the states that she lost.

[Michael Bavaro]

Certificate of the electoral vote of the state of Michigan. The certificate of the electoral vote of.

[Julian Barnes]

The state of Nevada.

[Michael Bavaro]

The certificate of the electoral vote of the great state of Wisconsin seems to be regular in form and authentic. And it appears therefrom that Donald J. Trump of the state of Florida received.

[Julian Barnes]

10 votes for president and J.D.

[Michael Bavaro]

Vance of the state of Ohio received 10 votes for vice president.

[Julian Barnes]

And so as we go through the roll call of states, not only are we reliving sort of the calls on election night, but Harris is reliving it too. The votes for President of the United States are as follows. Donald J. Trump of the state of Florida has received 312 votes. Kamala D. Harris of the state, the state of California has received 226 votes. And at the end of this entire process, it falls to her to be the one to say that Trump was the candidate who won the electoral votes to win the presidency. Thank you very much.

[Michael Bavaro]

Right. It's all very respectful and it's the peaceful transfer of power in action, to your point earlier, a restoration of what is supposed to be a routine.

[Julian Barnes]

Yeah, that's exactly right. I think lawmakers were largely pretty relieved to see that they were able to all come together here, complete this ceremony without any major events. But I also think at the same time, you'd be kidding yourself if you pointed to this particular vote and said, well, Congress is gonna be a pretty drama free institution, a pretty united institution moving forward. When in fact, you only have to look back to the vote that played out on the House floor on Friday with the reelection of Mike John to the speakership to see there are some pretty raw divisions within the House Republican Conference that are likely going to animate this Congress moving forward.

[Michael Bavaro]

Well, talk us through that. What exactly happened last Friday?

[Julian Barnes]

Well, really, Michael, this is the continuation of the story that you and I have talked about for so long now, which is that there is this group of ultra conservative anti spending fiscal hawks in the House Republican Conference who feel that they have been again and again let down by House Republican leadership when it comes to matters of government spending. These are the guys who voted to oust Kevin McCarthy when he was Speaker. And this time when it came to the reelection of Speaker Mike Johnson, they decided to play the role of the thorn in his side yet again.

[Michael Bavaro]

And why exactly did they choose to fight this Speaker's reelection? Given. And Katie, I think it was you who said this to me in one of those many conversations about this group of hard right fiscal conservatives, Johnson. Johnson was for a long time considered a kind of kindred spirit to these House conservative Republicans and someone whose strong relationship with them would insulate him from this kind of rebellion.

[Julian Barnes]

So on paper, it should have been a glide path for Johnson but these ultra conservatives for months now have been nursing the same grievance against Johnson that they had against McCarthy, which is that when it comes to keeping the government open, avoiding a shutdown, passing these massive spending bills, Both Johnson and McCarthy routinely relied on Democratic votes to keep spending levels flat. And it is something that has just infuriated these hard right Republicans. The other factor that was working against Johnson here is that he had an extraordinarily thin margin in the House. So in order to win the speakership on Friday, he was able to lose just one Republican. And we knew going into the vote that, in fact, he already had lost at least one Republican. We knew that Congressman Thomas Massie of Kentucky was going to vote against him.

[Michael Bavaro]

For all the fiscal reasons we've been discussing.

[Julian Barnes]

Exactly. And so that meant that he could not afford to lose anyone else on the House floor during that vote. And we got our first sort of inkling that there was going to be real trouble for him on this first ballot. Early on. The next order of business is the.

[Michael Bavaro]

Election of the speaker of the House of representatives for the 119th Congress. The reading Clerk will now call the roll. Adams.

[Julian Barnes]

There are a number of Freedom Caucus members whose last names start with B or C, which is relevant only insofar as the roll call is called alphabetically.

[Michael Bavaro]

Right.

[Julian Barnes]

And so, lo and behold, Biggs of Arizona. We get to Representative Andy Biggs of Arizona, his name is called out and he doesn't respond.

[Michael Bavaro]

Hmm. Silence.

[Julian Barnes]

Silence. And, Michael, I have to say, sometimes lawmakers are not necessarily the most focused on the floor. Sometimes they're hard of hearing. And so the first time his name is called and there's silence, you're thinking, maybe there's a mistake, maybe he's running late. But we saw him standing on the center aisle of the House floor. Biggs of Arizon, his name was called again, and he was staring just sort of defiantly straight into space. Biggs of South Carolina, Johnson. And they moved on. Cloud. Cloud. And we saw that happen several more times throughout the roll call.

[Michael Bavaro]

Clyde. Clyde.

[Julian Barnes]

And it became extraordinarily clear, especially given which lawmakers were refusing to answer, that this was a concerted effort to deprive Johnson of the votes he needed to become speaker and basically to put a stick in his eye. And his predicament gets worse as we go down the roll call, because not only has Thomas Massie voted against him, voted for another Republican lawmaker, but Norman.

[Michael Bavaro]

Tim.

[Julian Barnes]

Jordan. Jordan Self, Donalds. Donalds. Two other Republicans cast their votes for other lawmakers as well. So now, you had six lawmakers refusing to answer in protest and three Republicans voting against him outright. Johnson, this whole time, was sitting very stoically in his seat on the House floor. But before they even, I think, got to the last seat set of names on the roll call, he was out of his seat, and he was over talking to some of these defectors. And that set off a very familiar scene on the House floor, which was the Republican leader haggling and negotiating in real time with these holdouts for their votes to win the gavel.

[Michael Bavaro]

Right. Because at this moment, he has lost reelection or he's not won it.

[Julian Barnes]

Well, it looks like he's going to lose reelection. And not only that, if the vote had been called with those lawmakers casting their votes or refusing to vote, it looked as if the gavel could fall into Hakeem Jeffries hands, the Democratic leader, because the person who wins the speakership is the person who wins the most votes.

[Michael Bavaro]

Oh, wow.

[Julian Barnes]

So this was going to be a huge problem for not only Mike Johnson personally, but potentially Republicans at large. So Mike Johnson is negotiating. He's talking with these lawmakers, and we see those six lawmakers who refused to vote suddenly change their votes and cast them for Johnson.

[Michael Bavaro]

Okay, so where does that math leave Mike Johnson?

[Julian Barnes]

Well, he still has a big problem on his hands, because, again, he can only lose one Republican. And at this point in time, there are three Republicans voting against him. Now, his allies always saw Thomas Massie, the congressman from Kentucky, as being immovable, someone they were not going to be able to flip. And so Johnson's focus turns to the two other holdouts, Keith Self of Texas and Ralph Norman of South Carolina. And he'd been talking with them on the House floor, but he kind of whisks them off the House floor into this anteroom. And that's when Congresswoman Nancy Mace of South Carolina intervenes. And who does she have on the phone but President Trump. Hmm. He apparently was in the middle of a golf game down in Florida, and he spoke with Johnson, Norman, and Self all on speakerphone in this anteroom. And we know what his message was, because Ralph Norman and Keith Self told us afterwards. His message was, look, Mike is the only guy who has the votes to become speaker. Right. You need to do this for me. We need to get on with it. Right. We have a trifecta. This type of opportunity is a rare one. We need to seize it. We need to get going. And it sounds like neither man really pushed back much on this. Ralph Norman told us that his response to Trump was, well, you know, we just want to make sure that Mike is the person who's going to get everything that you want. We want to make sure you get your deal. And that's really where our trepidations are. But House will be in order by the end of the call. Keith Self and Ralph Norman walk back out onto the House floor.

[Michael Bavaro]

Mr. Norman.

[Julian Barnes]

Johnson.

[Michael Bavaro]

Mr. Self.

[Julian Barnes]

Johnson. And they check change their votes.

[Michael Bavaro]

Therefore, the honorable Mike Johnson of the state of Louisiana, having received a majority of the votes cast, is duly elected.

[Julian Barnes]

Speaker of the House of representatives for the 119th Congress. And so Johnson was able to successfully win the speakership on that first ballot. But minutes after Johnson is officially reelected, the House Freedom Caucus, which is sort of the organizing organ for a lot of these guys, it's that ultra conservative block of lawmakers. They send him a public letter, and it begins, today. We voted for Mike Johnson for Speaker of the House because of our steadfast support of President Trump. We did this despite our sincere reservations regarding the Speaker's track record over the past 15 months.

[Michael Bavaro]

Translation, we voted for you, but we don't really trust you. And we did it for Trump.

[Julian Barnes]

Yeah, exactly. And to send this minutes after he wins reelection, after they subjected him to this kind of embarrassing spectacle on the House floor. Right. Is really to assert their own power and to say, you need to listen to us, Katie.

[Michael Bavaro]

How do you understand what played out here? These House Republicans basically saying they're going to do this for Trump when Trump himself is somebody who has, when he was president, raised the national debt by trillions and trillions of dollars, which very much seems at odds with what these House fiscal conservatives say they care about. It almost feels like they're holding a lot of what's happened in the last few years against Johnson rather than Trump, when on top of all that, Trump is pledging to do things as president that would further increase the national debt.

[Julian Barnes]

Yeah, I mean, I think we got a preview of a lot of potential collisions to come in this Congress, both in this vote and in the past couple of weeks. Right. In this letter that the House Freedom Caucus sent to Johnson, they enumerated a list of demands, and these demands are going to be incredibly hard for Johnson to act on. One of them is that they can't raise the debt limit, which is something that President Trump has requested lawmakers do without enacting deep spending cuts that would offset their increases to the nation's borrowing limit. Another one is that if you're going to implement a program as costly as mass deportations, then you need to cut other government programs somewhere else. And so what you have essentially, is these lawmakers saying that they want to enact Trump's agenda, but they want to do so in a way that is going to be almost impossible to push through the House when it comes to achieving these types of fiscal goals. And so I think that's partly why they're looking to Mike Johnson. Congress, of course, has the power of the purse. I think they're looking for him to come up with some of those answers, to fill in some of the blanks here. But I also think it's just a fact that they inherently understand that Trump himself doesn't really have these same concerns about fiscal responsibility that they themselves share.

[Michael Bavaro]

So ultimately, they take out their frustration at Mike Johnson, at the speaker, because he's ultimately responsible for federal spending. So it makes a certain sense.

[Julian Barnes]

I think that's right. And look, I think more cynically, you also just have to face the reality that he is a politically safer target to vent frustrations at than Trump is.

[Michael Bavaro]

So what does all of this add up to when we think about how Republican control of the House is gonna work with Donald Trump as president and Mike Johnson as Speaker?

[Julian Barnes]

Well, I think the entire exercise that we went through on Friday was really conservatives putting Mike Johnson and his leadership on notice. Right. The idea that he really is going to have to answer to them. He is going to have to be responsive to their demands. And I think, look, you could say, hasn't that been true for the entire last year of Mike Johnson's speakership? How is this any different? But the difference here, I think, are the expectations. Republicans are starting this year thinking, we have a real opportunity here. We just won big. We won the House, we won the Senate, we won the White House. This is our time to deliver for our voters, for our constituents. And so there's a lot of pressure on Mike Johnson to deliver or else.

[Michael Bavaro]

Right. I mean, that's the fundamental message here. If he doesn't deliver for especially these conservative fiscal House Republicans, they may decide one day to wake up and toss him out.

[Julian Barnes]

Yes, that is the message. That is the sort of Damocles they want hovering over his head. They want him to know that he is on thin ice. And I think what's striking about that is it's shaping up to be a very different environment than what we're seeing over on the other side of the Capitol, where Republicans also have a majority in the United States Senate.

[Michael Bavaro]

We'll be right back. This is an advertisement from the American Petroleum Institute. Americans are ready for what's next, Moving beyond the hardships of inflation and economic anxiety towards a better future for their families. Ensuring greater access to more affordable energy that powers their daily lives, reliable energy that fuels innovation and economic growth, and abundant energy that keeps the nation safer and more secure is all within reach. Together, let's build a brighter future for all, powered by America's oil and natural gas resources. Learn [e-mail] hey, I'm Traci Mumford.

[Julian Barnes]

You can join me every weekday morning for the headlines from the New York Times.

[Michael Bavaro]

Now we're about to see a spectacle.

[Julian Barnes]

That we've never seen before. It's a show that catches you up on the biggest news stories. The day I'm here in Red Square, we'll put you on the ground where news is unfolding.

[Michael Bavaro]

I just got back from a trip out to the front line and every.

[Julian Barnes]

Soldier and bring you the analysis and expertise you can only get from the Times newsroom.

[Michael Bavaro]

I just can't emphasize enough how extraordinary this moment is.

[Julian Barnes]

Look for the headlines wherever you get your podcasts.

[Michael Bavaro]

So, Katie, describe the dynamic now at play over in the Senate side of the U.S. capitol under Republican control.

[Julian Barnes]

Well, while all of this drama was playing out in the House on Friday, things were much calmer over in the Senate. We saw the newly elected senators get sworn in, but probably the biggest change was that Mitch McConnell is no longer the Republican leader. And that's for the first time in about two decades. Instead, we have a new leader helming the Republican Conference. And that is Senator John Thune of South Dakota.

[Michael Bavaro]

And what's the story of his selection, his rather undramatic selection compared to Mike Johnson's as Senate Majority leader?

[Julian Barnes]

Well, it was an election that was lacking in drama, but that wasn't necessarily a foregone conclusion. So back in November, when it became clear that Republicans had won control of the Senate, there was, I would say, a clutch of MAGA conservatives who said, look, if we're going to have this governing trifecta, why don't we make sure that we have a true MAGA loyalist leading Senate Republicans because they felt that they had been somewhat smothered by the leadership of Mitch McConnell, who did much to enable Trump, but also was quite critical of him at times.

[Michael Bavaro]

Right.

[Julian Barnes]

And this is where Senator Rick Scott of Florida threw his hat in the ring to challenge John Thune to lead the Senate Republican Conference.

[Michael Bavaro]

And we should think of Rick Scott as being that MAGA style candidate.

[Julian Barnes]

That's right. Now, one incredibly important difference between how the House elects the speaker and how senators elect their party leader is that the Senate does it by secret ballot. And by the time the first round of ballots were cast, it was clear that Rick Scott was not going to have the votes to lead the Republican conference at all.

[Michael Bavaro]

Worth pointing out is I think you're essentially doing that the secret ballot means that a senator never really has to tell anybody, including potentially angry Matthew MAGA supporting constituents, what they did in that vote.

[Julian Barnes]

Yeah, that's absolutely right. It gives them this insulation of plausible deniability that members over in the House certainly do not have. And I think that helped Thune get over the finish line here. But I think a lot of these Republican senators saw Thune as an institutionalist. He actually served as McConnell's deputy. He was McConnell's number two. He absorbed a lot of the responsibilities that McConnell kind of had to relinquish as he was dealing with health problems in the last year. And I think they also saw him as someone who wanted to guard the Senate's independence as an institution in a way that Rick Scott was certainly not campaigning on.

[Michael Bavaro]

Well, just explain that. How should we think of Thune and what is his relationship to Donald Trump? You've made clear that he was not the MAGA candidate. What is he exactly?

[Julian Barnes]

Well, you know, I think it might be best explained in his own words. Senate Majority Leader soon.

[Michael Bavaro]

Welcome back to Meet the Press. Thanks, Kristen.

[Julian Barnes]

Great to be with you. He actually went on to a Sunday show a couple of days ago and was asked, how, how would you describe your relationship with President Elect Trump right now? What's your relationship like with Donald Trump? And his response was, well, you know what we are.

[Michael Bavaro]

It's evolving.

[Julian Barnes]

It's evolving. Which I think kind of tells you all you need to know.

[Michael Bavaro]

Where has it evolved from and what is it evolving into?

[Julian Barnes]

Well, Trump himself actually once accused John Thune of being a rino, a Republican in name only, which is one of sort of the worst political slurs that can be bandied about within the Republican Party.

[Michael Bavaro]

And what earned him that moniker, that slur rhino from Trump?

[Julian Barnes]

Well, that is because John Thune not only did not support Trump's effort to challenge the 2020 election results, but he also was quite publicly skeptical of that effort to overturn Biden's electoral victory. I actually remember very distinctly a reporter asking Thune in the halls of the Capitol leading up to six 2021, asking him, John Thune, what do you think about Donald Trump's effort to overturn the election here? And Thune's answer was, I think it's going to go down like a shot dog, which Trump did not take kindly to. But four years later, I think when it comes to the big issues, securing the border, rebuilding the military, strengthening the.

[Michael Bavaro]

Economy, you know, generating energy dominance for.

[Julian Barnes]

This country, those are all things on.

[Michael Bavaro]

Which we, we agree.

[Julian Barnes]

Thune himself explicitly says a number of the major agenda items that Trump has coming into the White House are ones that he believes in.

[Michael Bavaro]

The things that he talked about on.

[Julian Barnes]

The campaign trail, the things that the American people voted for, are all things.

[Michael Bavaro]

That I think this president wants to.

[Julian Barnes]

Get done, we want to get done. And I say that our incentives are aligned, that his incentives and Trump's incentives are aligned.

[Michael Bavaro]

Hmm.

[Julian Barnes]

At the same time, he is certainly not a MAGA loyalist in the vein of Rick Scott. And I do think one of the reasons why Republican senators ultimately voted to have him lead their conference was because they are looking for a leader who is willing to assert a little bit more independence, and they thought he would provide some sort of level of protection for the Senate as an institution at a time when Trump has strongly suggested he wants to co opt that independence for his own agenda.

[Michael Bavaro]

Right. I guess the question is just how much or just how little?

[Julian Barnes]

That's right. That is going to be the question of this Congress.

[Michael Bavaro]

So, Katie, let's bring all of this together now as we consider how this Congress is likely to operate over the next few weeks, next few months, next basically two years, until there's a midterm election and things might change. What underlies the drama in the House, as you explained, is the fact that they have a very small, razor thin majority that allows these fiscal conservatives to exert a lot of power when they want to. They can simply withhold their support for either Johnson or any Republican bill. The reality is that the same situation basically holds true in the Senate. Right. There are just a few Senate Republicans who could block anything, whether it's a confirmation or a spending bill or an immigration bill. So is this a Republican controlled House and Senate that's actually practically capable of getting Trump's agenda?

[Julian Barnes]

I mean, it's gonna be really tough. Now we have a blueprint of what they hope their major legislative accomplishment is going to be.

[Michael Bavaro]

What's that?

[Julian Barnes]

So Republicans right now are talking about shoehorning in a number of their priorities. Raising the debt limit, enacting deep spending cuts, extending the Trump tax cuts from 2017, as well as cracking down on immigration, implementing these new border security policies. And they want to put it all into one bill that they're going to try to fast track through Congress using this process called budget reconciliation, which allows the Senate to pass a measure like this using just a simple majority vote.

[Michael Bavaro]

Right. Democrats did this with the Inflation Reduction Act.

[Julian Barnes]

That's right. And the point of that is that it's a much lower threshold of support needed to pass this than what is usually required in the Senate. Now, the problem with this is that by jamming all of this legislation into one bill, maybe even jamming it into two bills, as some have suggested, is that this essentially becomes sort of a seesaw from hell.

[Michael Bavaro]

What does that mean?

[Julian Barnes]

Well, you have lawmakers who want to include very expensive immigration measures, who want to extend the Trump tax cuts, which are estimated to cost about $4 trillion. And at the same time, they want to make sure this bill doesn't cost money or add to the nation's debt. And so that means in order to offset the costs of all of those other policies, you're going to have to enact some really deep spending cuts. Now, there are certainly a number of lawmakers who would be happy to shutter entire agencies.

[Michael Bavaro]

Right.

[Julian Barnes]

These are the Republicans in the House that we've mostly been talking about today. But at the same time, both in the House and the Senate, you have more centrist Republicans, particularly Republicans who represent purplish districts, states who just got out of tough reelections, who certainly, certainly don't want to be seen as laying waste to the federal government, shuttering programs that their constituents rely on. And so this becomes a tremendously difficult balancing act to figure out. How do you implement all these policies that are going to cost a lot of money while cutting a bunch of programs, each of which have their own constituencies on the Hill. And House. Republican leaders have decided to add an extra layer of difficulty here. They've said they want to make sure this legislation at least passes the House within the first 100 days of Trump's presidency.

[Michael Bavaro]

Wow.

[Julian Barnes]

And that is a Herculean lift that we're now talking about, right?

[Michael Bavaro]

Getting a bill of this scale and this many different goals and competing interests passed in essentially three months with a.

[Julian Barnes]

One vote majority in the House. Yes.

[Michael Bavaro]

It feels, Katie, that we should end where we began, with the certification of the election and the reality that four years ago, we couldn't have had this kind of conversation. In fact, we didn't have this conversation because the Capitol had just been overrun by rioters who believed Donald Trump's false claim that the election had been stolen. And it was chaos and it was trauma. And now, four years later, his victory to a second presidential term has been very peacefully certified, as you recounted, in a way that does give us the space to talk about his agenda and what his relationship with Congress will look like. And it's very ironic that he's now been on both ends of this day.

[Julian Barnes]

Well, I remember in the days after January 6th, talking to Republican members of Congress who themselves were sheltering in place at the Capitol on January 6, who heard stories from their staff about their staff barricading themselves into their office to protect themselves from the rioters who were rampaging through the Capitol. And I remember a lot of them being appalled by what happened, who were making the case that Donald Trump was not someone who should lead the Republican Party. And that, in fact, in order to move on from January 6, in order to move on from what had happened, that Republicans needed to walk away from him as a leader. Now, fast forward four years later, the voters have spoken. They reelected Trump to the White House for a second term. They elected a Republican Congress, giving Republicans a majority in both the House and the Senate. And you have a Republican Party that is pretty unified around Trump himself. And so it's a remarkable turnabout. And it's not lost on me at all that the question now is not should they unify around Trump, but rather how unified can they be and how successful they will be at making his agenda come to fruition.

[Michael Bavaro]

Well, Katie, thank you very much.

[Julian Barnes]

Thanks, Michael.

[Michael Bavaro]

We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Monday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that he would resign after almost a decade in power. His resignation follows months of calls by members of his own party that he step aside as both prime minister and leader of his party before major elections later this year. And a legal battle is brewing over the future of U.S. steel. On Monday, three days after President Biden blocked the merger of Japan's Nippon Steel with U.S. steel, both companies have sued to keep the $14 billion merger on track. In blocking the merger, Biden said that it risked US national security, a claim that both companies have rejected. Today's episode was produced by Claire Tennisketter, Astha Chaturvedi and Rachelle Banja. It was edited by Rachel Quester and Liz OK Balin. Contains original music by Dan Powell, Pat McCusker, Marion Lozano and Alicia Ba? Itub, and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Runberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonderlic. That's it for the Daily. I'm Michael Balbaro. See you tomorrow.