Six Days Left: Closing Arguments, Racist Jokes and Burning Ballots

Summary

The Daily Podcast Episode Summary

Episode Title: Six Days Left: Closing Arguments, Racist Jokes and Burning Ballots
Host/Authors: Michael Barbaro, Lisa Lehrer, Shane Goldmacher, Astead Herndon
Release Date: October 30, 2024

---

1. Introduction

In the final stretch of the 2024 presidential election, The Daily hosts Michael Barbaro and Sabrina Tavernise engage in a comprehensive roundtable discussion with national political correspondents Lisa Lehrer, Shane Goldmacher, and Astead Herndon. The conversation centers on Donald Trump's controversial rally at Madison Square Garden, Kamala Harris's strategic responses, and emerging concerns about election integrity.

---

2. Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden Rally

Event Overview: Donald Trump held a significant rally at Madison Square Garden, which was billed as a pivotal moment in his campaign for re-election. The event drew approximately 20,000 attendees, showcasing the strength and reach of the MAGA movement within the Republican Party.

Controversial Rhetoric: The rally was marked by a series of speeches that included misogynistic and racist remarks. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe opened the event with offensive jokes about Puerto Rico, exemplifying the offensive tone set for the evening.

Shane Goldmacher (04:04): "Just pure racism. And this is a person speaking at an event that the Trump campaign has built as one of the most important... making jokes about Puerto Rico."

Audience Reaction: The audience's discomfort was palpable, as even the crowd seemed to recognize the overstepped boundaries of the jokes.

Lisa Lehrer (04:53): "Right. And from that point, it was a series of speakers who made a number of off-color and racist, sometimes misogynistic comments."

Strategic Implications: The choice of speakers, including figures like Tucker Carlson, who made racially charged remarks about Kamala Harris, was seen as an attempt to energize the base by reinforcing grievances and divisive narratives.

Shane Goldmacher (05:10): "He's manufacturing racial identity."

3. Democratic Campaign’s Response: Kamala Harris’s Strategy

Abortion Rights Focus: Kamala Harris's campaign has pivoted to emphasize abortion rights, aiming to resonate with both female voters and men by highlighting the broader societal impacts of restrictive abortion policies. Former First Lady Michelle Obama delivered a poignant speech targeting men, urging them to consider the ramifications of a Trump presidency on women's healthcare.

Lisa Lehrer (22:02): "To the men who love us, let me just try to paint a picture of what it will feel like if America... keeps revoking basic care from its women and how it will affect every single woman in your life."

Strategic Messaging: The Harris campaign seeks to counter Trump's divisive rhetoric by presenting a unifying message focused on everyday issues like grocery and housing prices, while also addressing the ideological threats posed by Trump's potential administration.

Shane Goldmacher (15:49): "She would enter the White House with what she's calling a to-do list of things that actual people care about, grocery prices, housing prices, and also abortion."

4. Analysis and Insights

Effectiveness of Campaign Strategies: The correspondents analyze the effectiveness of both campaigns' strategies in appealing to swing voters. While Trump's focus on grievances and divisiveness aims to solidify his base, Harris's emphasis on tangible issues and inclusivity seeks to attract undecided and moderate voters.

Lisa Lehrer (07:26): "Does this kind of a message merely bathes the base in a familiar vocabulary of grievance... it fails as a result to look at the persuadable swing voter."

Voter Behavior and Polls: Recent polls indicate that while Trump maintains significant support among certain demographics, Harris's focused messaging on abortion and stability may offer a competitive edge. However, challenges persist in mobilizing low-propensity voters and overcoming inherent distrust in the electoral process.

Michael Barbaro (10:44): "The latest Times Siena poll of Latino voters... finds that Harris has underperformed with Latino voters compared with the past three Democratic candidates for president."

5. Election Day Concerns

Burning Ballots and Election Integrity: In the days leading up to Election Day, incidents of burning ballots in three states have raised alarms about potential election interference and the broader climate of distrust in electoral outcomes.

Lisa Lehrer (31:13): "One thing that struck me throughout this whole race is how much concerns of violence have been present, particularly among voters. It's more than anxiety, it's fear, it's menace."

Baseline of Distrust: The correspondents express concern that the combination of divisive campaigning and incidents like ballot burning contribute to a baseline of distrust in election results, potentially undermining democratic institutions regardless of the outcome.

Astead Herndon (32:20): "I don't think the left has changed from 2016... We are now working from a baseline of distrust."

6. Concluding Campaign Strategies

Final Week Dynamics: As the final days approach, both campaigns focus on solidifying their messaging. Harris’s team remains cautiously confident, banking on their issue-focused approach resonating with voters, especially women. Conversely, Trump's campaign attempts to re-emphasize his base's grievances and promises of steadfastness against perceived internal threats.

Lisa Lehrer (26:20): "They believe that they are closing out on a message that's resonating... favor them."

Closing Arguments Anticipation: The episode anticipates Kamala Harris's closing argument speech, highlighting its potential impact on shaping undecided voters' opinions right before Election Day.

Shane Goldmacher (15:49): "Trump will fix it... he is going to fix it."

---

7. Election Day Rituals and Reflections

In a lighter segment, the correspondents share their personal rituals for navigating Election Day, reflecting on the intense and often monotonous nature of waiting for results.

Lisa Lehrer (32:57): "I try to go to yoga in the morning... who knows when I'll go to yoga after election day."

8. Final Takeaways

The episode underscores the high stakes of the final week leading up to the election, highlighting the contrasting strategies of both campaigns and the underlying tensions surrounding election integrity. The correspondents express a mix of concern and cautious optimism, acknowledging the unpredictable nature of voter turnout and issue prioritization on Election Day.

---

Notable Quotes:

• Lisa Lehrer (04:00): "Anger, frustration, disgust, a closing carnival of grievances, misogyny and racism was so incredibly crude."

• Astead Herndon (05:50): "I do think that the decision to put those people up there and the fact that it overlaps with rhetoric that Donald Trump himself has said over the years is the thing that reminds folks of the type of blame, the other bigoted ideology that Trump is associated with."

• Shane Goldmacher (12:05): "Don’t like the way the china shop looks. You may have these grievances that were aired on stage. He is going to fix it."

• Michael Barbaro (25:50): "Can you get people to focus on those issues? Can you get people to focus on the potential threat that Trump has to democratic institutions?"

---

This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the episode, providing insights into the final campaign maneuvers, strategic messaging, and the overarching concerns of election integrity. It serves as an informative guide for listeners seeking to understand the critical dynamics at play in the final days before the 2024 presidential election.

Transcript

[Lisa Lehrer]

At Schwab, how you invest is your choice, not theirs. That's why when it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices. You can invest and trade on your own. Plus get advice and more comprehensive wealth solutions to help meet your unique needs. With award winning service, low costs and transparent advice, you can manage your wealth your way at Schwab. Visit schwab.com to learn more from the New York Times.

[Michael Barbaro]

I'm Michael Barbaro. This is the Daily fallout spreads from.

[Shane Goldmacher]

The controversial rhetoric at Donald Trump's Madison.

[Michael Barbaro]

Square Garden rally in the final week of the race for president. Donald Trump's closing argument to voters appeared to backfire.

[Lisa Lehrer]

So anger, frustration, disgust, a closing carnival of grievances, misogyny and racism was so incredibly crude.

[Michael Barbaro]

Kamala Harris seized on abortion with a message aimed at men.

[Astead Herndon]

Former first lady Michelle Obama speaking to.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Male voters there with the message, we as women will become collateral damage to your rage. Does that help get votes for Kamala Harris?

[Michael Barbaro]

And fears about election interference were fueled by burning ballots across three states.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Hundreds of ballots stuffed in drop boxes went up in flames on the West Coast. And now the search is on for.

[Michael Barbaro]

Whoever set that fire fire today. I talked through all of that with three of my colleagues, national political correspondents Lisa Lehrer and Shane Goldmacher and the host of the runup podcast Asted herndon. It's Wednesday, October 30th. Well, friends, it has finally happened. This is our final campaign roundtable before the election. Sniff, sniff. All good things must come to an end. Stead Herndon. Shane Goldmacher, hey, thank you very much for marking this historic moment with us. We really appreciate it. A very quick note on our timing here. We are having this conversation at around noon on Tuesday before Vice President Kamala Harris delivers a very big speech on the National Mall tonight. We will talk about that here, of course, showcasing your collective predictive powers or lack thereof. So let us jump in. I think that we have to start with the closing argument that we have heard in the form of Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden. Shane, you were there.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Yeah, this was quite an event. And it was an event that his campaign had billed as a big speech for him. This is a place, an arena that he had talked about wanting to go. And he pulled together basically the breadth of the current Republican Party, showing how much it is now the MAGA movement.

[Michael Barbaro]

Not to mention 20,000 people in the capital of blue state America.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Yeah. And it was filled with red hats and people were excited. The first, like three or four people I talked to in the hallways had come from out of state. This was a sort of a Mecca moment, Trump taking over the middle of this blue city. And they were really hopeful and excited for this.

[Lisa Lehrer]

I was also there literally eating popcorn with Shane. We ate a very large box of popcorn because this was a show. I mean, this was like lights, it was splashy, it was very long. I think I was there for nine hours. And I think Shane was there for nine hours, nine hours longer. Speaker after speaker talked about how particularly emotional this was for the Trump family because you got this sense that they felt that their father had built New York, pointing to all his buildings and projects in the city and that New York, a deeply blue state, had cast, had persecuted him. This was the narrative that came up again and again. And now they were back. And it was supposed to be this hugely triumphant moment designed to show the scale and the reach of what they believe their father and Trump himself believes he has built, which is a movement. And then, and then.

[Shane Goldmacher]

So they had this huge list of speakers, right? It was like I saw this run of show beforehand. I was like, wow, this is a lot of people. And they had a section called the Hype Acts. And it was a series of people. And it started with a comedian who made a series of beyond off collar remarks. Just pure racism. And this is a person speaking at an event that the Trump campaign has built as one of the most important. On the middle of the stage with Trump's name on it, making jokes about Puerto Rico.

[Michael Barbaro]

Let's play. Actually from this comedian, there's a lot going on.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Like, I don't know if you guys know this, but there's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. Yeah, I think it's called Puerto Rico.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay. Even the audience seems to recognize, you can hear it, that this has gone too far.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Right. And from that point, it was a series of speakers who made a number of off color and racist, sometimes misogynistic comments. Tucker Carlson got up there and made a couple. I guess they were supposed to be cracks, but they were fairly racist cracks about Harris race.

[Michael Barbaro]

And Jerry, can we just play that? Because I think hearing all this collectively is what gives it its power. This is what Tucker Carlson said about the Vice president, the Democratic nominee.

[Lisa Lehrer]

It's going to be pretty hard to.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Look at us and say, you know what, Kamala Harris, she's just, she got 85 million votes because she's just so impressive as the first Samoan, Malaysian, low iq, former California prosecutor ever to be elected president. It was Just a groundswell of popular support.

[Lisa Lehrer]

What is he doing being racist?

[Michael Barbaro]

He's manufacturing racial identity.

[Astead Herndon]

Yes.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Yeah. Yes.

[Astead Herndon]

I also think, like the Harris campaign, obviously, formerly the Biden campaign, has thought for the last two years that come the end of this election, the Trump campaign would re remind America of its extremism. And it's who the Trump campaign has been and especially in 2024, has decided to lean even further into that. I don't think that anyone holds Donald Trump personally responsible for every word that comes out of every person who supports his mouth, but I do think that the decision to put those people up there and the fact that it overlaps with rhetoric that Donald Trump himself has said over the years is the thing that re reminds folks of the type of blame, the other bigoted ideology that Trump is associated with. And that's where the Harris campaign wants to be.

[Lisa Lehrer]

You know, and the other thing that struck me about the event is how, like, all Trump events are fueled by grievances. Like, this is their big chance. They're in the garden, man. And it's.

[Michael Barbaro]

They know the media is all over the place.

[Lisa Lehrer]

The media is all over it. And so much time was spent talking about how they were wronged by New York City, how they were wronged by the courts, how they've been wronged by big tech. So this could have been an opportunity to project some kind of future vision for the country and more importantly, what they would do for voters. I kept wondering to myself, does some random voter who's undecided and probably not paying that much attention in Wisconsin, do they care that Trump and the Trump family feel slighted by New York City? Like, why would they care about that?

[Michael Barbaro]

You're saying this kind of a message merely bathes the base in a familiar vocabulary of grievance, in some cases, racism. It fails as a result to look at the persuadable swing voter and say, I got something new to offer you. And of course, that's the person who's gonna decide.

[Lisa Lehrer]

And to win, Trump has to expand his base beyond where he was in 2020.

[Astead Herndon]

And he's putting Tony Hinchcliffe on the stage.

[Michael Barbaro]

This is a comedian.

[Astead Herndon]

At the same time, he's not putting Nikki Haley on stage.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Right, right.

[Astead Herndon]

At the same time, he's not embracing.

[Lisa Lehrer]

This is not outreach.

[Astead Herndon]

Yeah, right, right. He's not acting. There's no reason that this couldn't be a campaign that included all sectors of the Republican Party. The reason we are getting the MAGA masculinity piss everyone off is my form of manhood. Group of like MAGA movement projected on that stage. It's just because in the last four years, I think kind of driven through Trump's own feeling of slightness from the judicial and legal system, he's decided to double down on that front. That's the lesson, I think of this year. They chose not to be additive.

[Michael Barbaro]

Let's talk about how Kamala Harris reacts. Her campaign seizes this with ferocity. Shane?

[Shane Goldmacher]

Yeah, it turned out that they had things happening that day that really helped them, which is she was in Pennsylvania and at a Puerto Rican restaurant that afternoon. As she's coincidence, a very coincidence, but.

[Michael Barbaro]

Actually when a crude joke about Puerto Rico being a floating pile of garbage.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Is being made and the reason she's at a Puerto Rican restaurant is there's 500,000, 600,000 voters of Puerto Rican heritage in Pennsylvania, the most important state in the country, and she's making an explicit appeal to them. And so at the same time that Trump and has a warmup act making these insults, she has supporters in that community amplifying her message. You know, she immediately cuts a small ad, they roll out a number of endorsements and really they're using this to draw attention to Trump and Trump's divisive rhetoric in exactly the way Estet is describing, saying that this encapsulates what you would get if you get four more years of Donald Trump.

[Lisa Lehrer]

These are like the ultimate persuadable voters. Like Latino voters have been a group that both campaigns have fought about, and it's also a group where the Trump campaign believes they have made inroads. So it is precisely the kind of people that they need to appeal to to win the election. And that, as Issted pointed out, broadening the intent theoretically could have brought them in.

[Michael Barbaro]

Well, let's talk about the Latino electorate for just a moment and I want to kind of test the proposition that this is going to make much of a difference. And here's why. The latest Times Siena poll of Latino voters had really interesting findings. Not only did it reveal Trump's strength with this group of voters, it finds that Harris has underperformed with Latino voters compared with the past three Democratic candidates for president. And really interestingly, that poll found that a majority of Latino voters do not feel that when Trump is talking about immigrants and in theory Latino Americans in a negative way that he's talking about them. There's some kind of a built in immunity this poll found to that. And so my question is, why would this be any different?

[Astead Herndon]

Well, I think one, he wasn't Talking about Latinos in general, he was talking about Puerto Ricans. It's not as if this was a general thing about the group broadly. You know, there can be a feeling that even when someone demeans immigrants, that that's talking specifically about illegal immigrants, not people who came here legally. But what I'm saying, it doesn't actually have to be about, you think he's talking about you for it to matter to you. Like a lot of times, even when we were thinking about four years ago in the Democratic primary, the people who are most motivated by messages of racism or accusations of racism coming from Republicans weren't even necessarily the groups it was targeting, but liberals who become more enthusiastic when they realize they're fighting a racist monster on the other side. So some of the energy that this drives, it motivates black folks, it will motivate white liberals. And it's the reason Democrats ceded this election to their terms. They have been okay with this being a Trump referendum because they think Trump referendum still helps them win. Part of the reason Donald Trump is an unpopular figure is because people think he's a bully. He's mean. Like, I think sometimes we can over index and think that because the scandal hasn't invalidated him fully, it means it doesn't matter. And I don't think that's true, frankly. I think that, like Democrats have built Trump into this unbeatable figure when that's never what the data or reporting has ever said, just that you cannot assume that the coalition will hold together on anti Trumpness alone.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay, remember, in theory, we're still inside Madison Square Garden. You're still working on that bag of popcorn. And Donald Trump takes the stage. He talks at length about undocumented immigration. He says Election Day will be the day that America experiences independence from undocumented immigrants because he will begin mass deportations. And then he comes around to the enemies within, and we have to defeat them. And when I say the enemy from within, the other side goes crazy.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Becomes a sound.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Behold.

[Michael Barbaro]

How can he say no? They've done very bad things to this country. They are indeed the enemy from within. But this is who we're fighting. And so when Trump is finished with his portion of his big Madison Square Garden closing argument event, it's very clear that he is reinforcing his determination to challenge Democratic norms. And all of that made me think about yet another Times poll. God, we poll a lot of issues. And this poll was about the question of democracy. And Shane, I'm sure you looked at this poll really closely. It finds that half of Americans doubt that democracy is working for them and that the American experiment in self governance is functioning well. And clearly in that context, the way Trump talks about democratic norms takes on a different meaning. Right? I mean, he's banking on Americans thinking, sure, some people are going to say, I'm assailing democratic norms, but democracy isn't working for you.

[Shane Goldmacher]

I mean, I think one of the most interesting things about Trump's speech was what was happening above him in the arena. So there's a big jumbotron and it says Trump will fix it. And it doesn't say what the it is and the it lets the public voters apply what they want to. So for voters who think democracy isn't working for them, Trump is gonna fix it. Right. This was the original appeal in 2016. He may be a bull in a china shop, but you don't like the way the china shop looks. Right. You may have these grievances that were aired on stage. He is going to fix that. Now, the professionalized side of his campaign says the it is inflation and immigration and concerns that are voiced by broad swaths of Americans. But people get to hear what they want. And I think the idea is that many people feel alienated by our institutions. And he is saying he will fix it, he will break it, and he will do it in whatever way he thinks is best. And you should trust him as this one singular figure as he's presented himself for eight years.

[Lisa Lehrer]

I mean, one thing that I think is important to note here is that he is putting forward with this a very different form of American government and is not necessarily as democratic as we think of American government to be. He is in a situation where his opponent, the Harris campaign, is calling him a foul. He has his ex officials, as we talked about last week, coming out and saying he would use his power to prosecute his political enemies and he names them. I mean, there's been a series of interviews he's done on Fox News where the Fox News hosts say, this is metaphorical, Right? You don't actually mean these actual people who oppose you. And Trump says, no, no, I do. I mean, Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi, right? So he is saying to America, I will prosecute my political opponents, I will fire Jack Smith, I will change the Justice Department. You deport him, maybe deport him. I will limit the independence of the Justice Department. He is putting forward very clearly for all of us to see a very different form of American government and I think a less democratic one.

[Michael Barbaro]

This argument's at the center of Kamala Harris. We believe closing argument to be delivered in several hours.

[Astead Herndon]

Right.

[Michael Barbaro]

Shane, you've gotten briefed on that closing argument. And the reason I want to ask you to talk about the closing argument is that there's a debate within the Democratic Party. You've written about it, about whether closing on Trump as threat to democracy is a good plan if it matters to enough voters. Democracy is not really a kitchen table issue. So what do you understand to be her closing argument that's gonna be coming tonight? And how do you think the campaign thinks about this critique from within the Democratic Party that that's not the right place to land this plane?

[Shane Goldmacher]

I think her campaign thinks that they're not trying to land the plane that way, even if it can appear that way in recent days. And the argument that they've said she's going to make tonight is that Trump is entering the White House or would enter the White House with an enemies list and without the staff that's now denouncing him. And she would enter the White House with what she's calling a to do list of things that actual people care about, grocery prices, housing prices, and also abortion as one of those closing messages. And she's trying to pull together the concerns around Trump and pivot from them to make it back centered on voters versus just Trump. Her campaign has done some ads that are just former Trump officials and saying, you know, we don't think that Trump would be good in the White House. Future Forward, which is the biggest super PAC supporting her, has been doing tests of all of the ads, Trump ads, Democratic ads, that ad tested relatively poorly.

[Michael Barbaro]

Interesting.

[Shane Goldmacher]

It's other ads where you have regular people saying Trump looks scary and bad and he's gonna give taxes to the rich. And I actually think Kamala Harris will help me on my grocery prices. Those are the messages in general that have fared better for Democrats.

[Michael Barbaro]

Democracy doesn't land instead.

[Astead Herndon]

Yeah, I mean, I think it's interesting. I certainly agree with kind of the broader points they're making here. I think it landed in the midterms with a specific electorate and kind of specific races that had stakes which were important for Democrats. You saw them able to cast the Kerry Lakes, the Doug Mastrianos, as extreme. And that was really important for them.

[Michael Barbaro]

And they won those races.

[Astead Herndon]

And they won those races. I think before we say that it doesn't land, we should acknowledge that it's not like Democrats are working from the premise that there is a problem with democracy they have to fix. They're mostly saying the way the system's working is okay, and Donald Trump broke it. And what I hear mostly is an agreement on a problem that Democrats don't really speak to.

[Michael Barbaro]

Just explain that.

[Astead Herndon]

It would be one thing if Kamala Harris was saying our political system is not working and Donald Trump is exploiting that in a poor fashion. But here is what the Democratic Party is gonna do to make that system work better.

[Michael Barbaro]

She's not saying that.

[Astead Herndon]

And be more responsive. That is not what they're saying. But I think their attack on Trump sometimes sounds like is a defense of a status quo system.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right.

[Astead Herndon]

Not an acknowledgement of a problem and a pitch to improve it. And so it doesn't shock me. It doesn't land for a certain group of people, and it only lands for kind of moderate Republicans because those are people who are usually pretty invested, who think the status quo's not all that bad. Right.

[Michael Barbaro]

That goes back to the poll. When you criticize Trump for being a threat to democracy, you may reinforce the idea that you think democracy is going well for people when that poll shows it's not. You're hearing that, too when you talk to voters.

[Astead Herndon]

Yes. And all I'm saying is it's not like they've ever tried the opposite. To present a different type of vision of how you would reshape government to work better for people.

[Michael Barbaro]

Got it.

[Astead Herndon]

They've never tried that. That's not their effort, really. So all I'm saying is I don't like when the democracy argument is dismissed as ineffective, when the democracy argument they're giving is just, Donald Trump is bad. They're not presenting a competing vision on how a system can work better for people. And in my reporting, I feel like that's the thing I hear the most with the type of voters they lose. And so if Donald Trump is promising change, and that is bull in China Shop, you know, I can see how he picks off a couple of those people when it feels like the other side is offering stability. But you don't like what's in the China shop.

[Shane Goldmacher]

And the challenge from the beginning for Harris taking over from Joe Biden so late in this race is you are the sitting vice president. You have a deep challenge to be representing change. Now, they made a big pitch at that at the beginning, and I think it was actually one of her successes early in this race was embodying change. But she has struggled more recently to differentiate herself from Biden and to represent a totally new vision.

[Michael Barbaro]

We're going to take a break. Lisa, would you take us out on a break?

[Lisa Lehrer]

We'll be right back. With Instacart, you can get all your holiday essentials delivered in as fast as 30 minutes, whether it's the white elephant gift everyone will want to steal or the secret ingredient that makes great Grandma Jo's cookie recipe so great. Just download the Instacart app to find recipes, shop ingredients and whip out dishes so delicious your aunts and uncles will forget to ask about your love life. Enjoy free delivery on your first three orders. Service fees and terms apply. This podcast is supported by USA for unhcr, the UN Refugee agency. This winter. Your gift to USA for UNHCR makes all the difference. As temperatures drop, your donation provides critical relief like food, blankets, shelter, fuel for heaters, and more. It's a race against time to help those in need. UNHCR uses every dollar wisely to turn your compassion into action this winter to help refugees and displaced families survive. All gifts are matched for a limited time. Give [e-mail] Winter okay, welcome back.

[Michael Barbaro]

Astead Lisa Shane, the Harris campaign is not just focused in its closing argument days on democracy. Of course, it is focused on several issues. It felt like over the past few days the focus that broke through was the Harris campaign's emphasis on abortion, and it enlisted Michelle Obama Lisa to deliver a speech, I believe it was in Michigan that has been zooming across the Internet. And I want to play a portion of that speech from Michelle Obama.

[Lisa Lehrer]

So to the men who love us, let me just try to paint a picture of what it will feel like if America, the wealthiest nation on earth, keeps revoking basic care from its women and how it will affect every single woman in your life. Your girlfriend could be the one in legal jeopardy if she needs a pill from out of state or over overseas, or if she has to travel across state lines because the local clinic closed up.

[Michael Barbaro]

This was far more explicit, I thought, than the message to women we heard last week from Congresswoman Liz Cheney, which we had talked about. She encourages women to vote for Harris. Your husband, your friends, they don't need to know. This is a message to women, really, also to men, that the women in their lives could die under a Trump presidency.

[Lisa Lehrer]

If your wife is shivering and bleeding on the operating room table during a routine delivery gone bad, her pressure dropping as she loses more and more blood or some unforeseen infection spreads and her doctors aren't sure if they can act, you will be the one praying that it's not too late. You will be the one pleading for somebody, anybody, to do something. Yeah, it was an extraordinary message, and it was. I've spent a lot of time listening to politicians talk about abortion on both sides of the aisle.

[Michael Barbaro]

You wrote a whole book about it.

[Lisa Lehrer]

I wrote a whole book about it. I have never heard someone make an argument quite like this. You know, abortion is always seen as a woman's issue, historically. It's not, of course, because it takes two people to make a baby, sometimes more, last I checked, depending on your fertility situation. So it's a much broader issue that it really encompasses men, too. And politicians have shied away from that. Michelle Obama did not. She addressed it directly to men. And this is an argument the campaign has made through the stories of women who have faced these really gut wrenching medical and emotional choices and situations over their pregnancies. But having Michelle Obama make it so explicitly to men, I think laid out the stakes that the Harris campaign would like to fight this election on in a different and really direct way, and one that shows sort of how this issue has evolved in the post Roe era. We're in a different place than we were in 2020 when Roe was on the books.

[Michael Barbaro]

It was interesting to me that both Barack and Michelle Obama have used this very precious time on the campaign trail on behalf of Kamala Harris to appeal to men in a very different way, obviously, than Trump is seeking to do so. Shane, how important is a moment like this? And where is the campaign trying to take the question of abortion in these last hours?

[Shane Goldmacher]

I mean, I would take Michelle Obama's speech, Trump's appearance at the Garden, her speech tonight, and say the entire goal for both sides is to get the very tiny sliver of undecided voters to be thinking about the issues that are better for the Democrats or better for the Republicans. If you are an undecided voter and you are thinking about abortion, you are probably more likely to vote for Kamala Harris. Abortion rights are widely popular in this country. Trump's decision to appoint justices that overturned Roe is not popular. If that's what they can get people to think about, that is a winning issue for Democrats. But the idea is, can you get people to focus on those issues? Can you get people to focus on the potential threat that Trump has to democratic institutions? And on the Trump side, what he has not done as well recently is get people to focus on the issue sets that are good for him. Immigration, people's frustrations about the economy.

[Michael Barbaro]

Lisa, I suspect it's because of what Shane is saying that the Harris campaign thinks that they are more effectively communicating on the issues that are mattering to swing voters than the Trump campaign is that you were confident enough to boldly report that the Harris campaign's staffers believe, and I'm sure it's tentative, that they're doing okay right now. There's a confidence that they might win, which is always a very risky thing to ever write.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Yeah. I mean, look, it's where they are. Right. So I'm reflecting what my colleagues and I have been hearing from people at the top levels of this campaign. And the phrase that kept coming up actually was nauseously confident, which is sort of a variation on cautiously confident, I guess, which is not to say this race is not extremely tight. It is. It's neck and neck and it could really go either way.

[Michael Barbaro]

Why are they nauseously confident?

[Lisa Lehrer]

But they believe that they are closing out on a message that's resonating. Some of these, this sense that they've been so desperate to remind people of with Trump, you know, his, the things that people didn't like about him, his divisiveness, his style that in this final week or so has been front and center. So they believe that favors them. They're also happy with the abortion argument and how that's been landing. They see that that's motivating, particularly to female voters who are turning out and voting. They believe, and early voting has not necessarily looked as strong for them. There's been a high level of Republican turn, but their sense on that is that Republicans are effectively cannibalizing their election day vote. Right.

[Michael Barbaro]

With that.

[Lisa Lehrer]

These are people that would have voted anyhow, and now they're just coming out earlier. So what they think is this is a race, that this is going to be a real shocker for everybody. So please brace yourself. It will be a race that is decided on election Day. That is their line right now.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Look, I mean, you can also see what the Trump team is doing, which is that Donald Trump today is calling a news conference in Florida for basically a do over because he didn't in fact, delivering the closing message at Madison Square Garden. He is trying to gather the cameras and do it again because it was drowned out by the speakers that he selected, that his team selected to proceed him on stage.

[Astead Herndon]

Yeah, I mean, if the polling tells us it's 50 50, I think it comes down to which campaign's theory of the case matches the most on the electorate as we get to the day. And you can see the reasons why the Harris campaign has growing confidence there. Their voters are ones we know are more likely to turn out.

[Lisa Lehrer]

They have more, you Mean women?

[Michael Barbaro]

Yes.

[Astead Herndon]

I mean women. I mean, more college educated. I mean, like, I mean, they're the type of people who are more likely to have voted in the midterms. I mean, anti Trump motivation as Lashore's reason of coming out, rather than, you know, the thing about betting on the Joe Rogan Bros. Is they gotta actually go.

[Lisa Lehrer]

They have to be registered. Yeah.

[Astead Herndon]

And so, like, sometimes, even when, you know, we've done episodes focusing on low propensity voters, young men and people like that, and sometimes I'll go through this whole process with them. And at the end I'm like, yeah, I see the theory that the Trump campaign is gonna convert this guy into voting, but I'm not sure lil bro here is gonna vote. Right. And so, like, that gap between who they're appealing to and their likelihood to come out is a challenge for them. Right. And so one thing I think that we have to acknowledge is Trump has the harder task in this election, but does not make it an impossible one. And to me, the most important factor and the reasons why he still has an issue set that really works for him and a lane that works for him. Are you changing the page from Donald Trump in that era in that tone of politics, or do you wanna turn the page on Biden and that administration's policy? And I think we cannot understate the opportunity for a switch was a chance for them to reset in a lot of ways. But they've basically run the Biden campaign with Kamala Harris at the top. And I think abortion rights has taken up more crime than rights. I'm not saying. Exactly. I don't think that's true. Exactly. I think the mere act that she can campaign in five states over two days just means it's not the Biden campaign. Right. Because he can go places she can go. But I'm saying creating the anti Trump draw a crowd. Yeah, yeah. I'm saying creating the anti Trump coalition is a choice they had to make partially because they tied themselves for two years to the status quo, to an administration that was unpopular.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Can I say one that is still.

[Astead Herndon]

The barrier they are overcoming.

[Shane Goldmacher]

The Democrats feel good about how the last couple of days have been and the focus and can they have shifted people's focus to these issues. The reason the Trump team is confident and has been confident is the one issue that for many, many months has ranked as the most important issue in this election is the economy. And on that issue, Donald Trump has maintained his advantage that overall, more voters trust Donald Trump on the economy. And so for them if voters move back to the issue where they've cared most. The Trump team has felt confident that that is the way that where they can win this race. The Harris people are successfully pivoting the conversation not just on that issue. So we don't know on Election Day what issue most of these most important swing voters are going to be thinking about. And that's what this week is very much about.

[Lisa Lehrer]

I hear it'll be decided on Election Day.

[Shane Goldmacher]

That's the turnout here.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Breaking news.

[Michael Barbaro]

Speaking of Election Day, there have been some really worrying incidents involving ballots over the past couple days. And I don't want to make too much hay out of three ballot boxes in three states being lit on fire. But three ballot boxes in three states were lit on fire. How much should we be worried about that, do you think?

[Lisa Lehrer]

I mean, one thing that struck me throughout this whole race is how much concerns of violence have been present, particularly among voters. It's more than anxiety, it's fear, it's menace. I think it is definitely out there, and I think people are worried about it.

[Astead Herndon]

I don't see a universe for the result as believed, trusted. Like, what is that universe?

[Lisa Lehrer]

I don't disagree.

[Astead Herndon]

I don't really. What are we preparing for agreement? I don't think that's the lesson of the last four. I don't think so.

[Michael Barbaro]

I'm saying even if Trump wins.

[Astead Herndon]

Even if Trump wins, I don't think. I think the left has changed from 2016.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Astead Herndon]

I think there's been some. I think when you saw the, like, Biden dropout moment, like there's some deranged activity on the Democratic side, too. Yeah. Like. So all I'm saying is my. I don't think. I wouldn't put this on other people. Like, I would love for a universe where the results are believed. I believe that is a bad thing for our future and a worrying thing for trusting our election.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Yeah.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Taking us over the cliff.

[Astead Herndon]

But I say it is my expectation that the result is not believed.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right.

[Astead Herndon]

Does that mean we have the conditions for some of the most scary stuff we've seen? I'm not saying that, but I think we are now working from a baseline of distrust.

[Michael Barbaro]

Can I somehow end on a note of, if not levity, personal, how are.

[Lisa Lehrer]

You going to make this turn Election Day?

[Michael Barbaro]

The thing that I think most people don't know about Election day and campaign journalists is that basically almost nothing happens. There's a lot of waiting. Everyone has their ritual. If I may ask you all about your Election Day rituals, anything you've got for me.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Hmm. I try to go to yoga in the morning.

[Michael Barbaro]

There it is.

[Lisa Lehrer]

For one moment of something before. Because as Ested so nicely pointed out, we're headed over the cliff. So who knows when I'll go to yoga after election day. And then I time the coffees through the remainder of the day.

[Michael Barbaro]

Astead, you're not on a plane.

[Astead Herndon]

No, I think I'll be here. I don't think I have a different election day every day. That's. This is a routine of the last, like, three, four years. Like, every day that's gonna be super intense. I go to this diner near my house, order the same thing, and it, like, starts my day off well.

[Lisa Lehrer]

So you eat and I go to yoga. Exactly.

[Michael Barbaro]

And is the. What is the perfect. Just what's the order?

[Astead Herndon]

What is the order? Corned beef hash and egg and swim cheddar.

[Shane Goldmacher]

It's a heavy start.

[Astead Herndon]

Yeah. And even maybe a side of turkey sausage if I'm going crazy, you know?

[Lisa Lehrer]

And then you are able to stay awake for the remainder of the day?

[Astead Herndon]

Well, actually, like, do I like work? It's like, it just kicks the day off better.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Shane, I don't know that I have an election day tradition. I. Yeah, I mean, I was in Pennsylvania last time. I'll be here in the office this time, and I may try to fit in a run in the morning or something active.

[Lisa Lehrer]

No turkey sausage?

[Shane Goldmacher]

No turkey sausage. What is yours?

[Astead Herndon]

What's yours?

[Lisa Lehrer]

What's your.

[Michael Barbaro]

What's my elaborate ritual? I don't want to talk about which Taylor Swift songs I listen to in the morning. That's between me and her. Thanks for asking, Shane.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Lisa Stead, thanks for having us.

[Michael Barbaro]

Thank you very much.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Thank you.

[Astead Herndon]

Thank you.

[Michael Barbaro]

Cheers.

[Astead Herndon]

So, listen, one week from today, you.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Will have the chance to make a.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Decision that directly impacts your life, the.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Life of your family, and the future.

[Astead Herndon]

Of this country we love.

[Michael Barbaro]

In her closing argument on Tuesday night from the National Mall, Vice President Harris described Trump as a petty tyrant determined to exact revenge against his enemies and accumulate unchecked power. And she cast herself as a unifier focused on preserving democracy and addressing the everyday needs of working Americans.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Donald Trump has spent a decade trying.

[Michael Barbaro]

To keep the American people divided and.

[Astead Herndon]

Afraid of each other. That is who he is. But America, I am here tonight to.

[Lisa Lehrer]

Say that is not who we are.

[Michael Barbaro]

That is not who we are. For even more campaign coverage, listen to tomorrow's episode of the Run up. Instead focuses on the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. The voters there that Kamala Harris is depending on and exactly when the state will count the votes. We'll be right back. This podcast is supported by nrdc. We are in danger of losing some of the most important environmental fights in our lifetime, but they are winnable. With your support, NRDC is fighting to stop fossil fuel companies from expanding oil drilling that threatens the Arctic, polar bears and our climate. NRDC is waging an aggressive campaign against the overuse of pesticides, wiping out pollinators and threatening our food supply. NRDC is chasing the clock to save endangered whales.

[Shane Goldmacher]

NRDC needs your help.

[Michael Barbaro]

Please donate today.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Visit nrdc.org thedaily think you've got customer loyalty locked down? What about the one in eight customers.

[Michael Barbaro]

Who will ditch your brand after just one bad experience? It happens even to the best brands. But here's the good news. Medallia has done the research so you can regain that customer and maybe even their loyalty.

[Shane Goldmacher]

See the research and a treasure trove of other loyalty building [e-mail] NYT.

[Michael Barbaro]

Here'S what else you need to know today. On Tuesday, Israeli airstrikes in northern Gaza and eastern Lebanon killed dozens of people, according to Palestinian officials. The strike in Gaza destroyed a residential building, killing at least 93 people, 25 of whom were children. U.S. officials called it a horrifying incident Incident with a horrifying result. According to Lebanese officials, the strike there occurred in a district where a Hezbollah holds sway, killing at least 60 people. It was not immediately clear how many of the dead were militants or civilians. Meanwhile, Israel said that four of its soldiers were killed in northern Gaza, adding to what has become the deadliest month of the past year for Israel's military. In October alone, 59 soldiers have been killed. Today's episode was produced by Nina Feldman, Claire Tennesseeetter and Rochelle Bongia. It was edited by Paige Cowan, Liz O. Bailyn and Maria Byrne, contains original music by Dan Powell and Marian Lazarus and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Runberg and Ben Landsfurk of Wonderly. That's it for the Daily I'm Michael Balbaro. See you tomorrow. Overwhelmed by your to do list? Meet Claude, your new AI assistant from Anthropic. Whether you're crafting the perfect email, planning a family vacation, or tackling a home improvement project, Claude is your go to collaborator.

[Shane Goldmacher]

Need to whip up a quick meal plan?

[Michael Barbaro]

Claude's got recipes, struggling with the spreadsheet formula? Claude's your Excel guru. From creative writing to data analysis, Claude brings expert level insights to your daily challenges. It's like having a brilliant friend on speed dial ready to help 247 join thousands already simplifying their lives with Claude. Curious how AI can transform your day? Discover the Claude Advantage at anthropic.com Claude.