The Daily – "The Democrats’ Big Shutdown Gamble"

Date: October 1, 2025
Host: Michael Barbaro
Reporters: Katie Edmondson, Carl Hulse
Guests: Senator Chuck Schumer, Senator John Thune

Overview:

This episode takes listeners to the heart of Capitol Hill as the federal government officially shuts down. It’s the most direct act of resistance by Democrats yet against President Trump’s second-term domestic agenda. The episode unpacks how Democrats arrived at this high-stakes moment, their internal divisions and calculations, why this shutdown feels different, and what the risks are for both parties as they dig in.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Lead-Up: A Shutdown Long in the Making

Timestamp: 02:51 – 05:43

• Reporter Michael Barbaro and Congressional Correspondent Katie Edmondson lay the ground for the day: the shutdown was widely expected, not averted at the last moment as in previous stalemates.
• Edmondson highlights that previous close calls with shutdowns always ended with leaders pulling back from the edge, but “that is very much not the feeling now, in large part because of what happened back in March” [03:35].
• Recap of March Decision: In March, Democrats debated whether to use a shutdown as leverage. At the last minute, Senate leader Chuck Schumer reversed course and allowed a spending bill to advance, fearing too much power would shift to Trump during a shutdown.
  • "By shutting down the government, they were going to cede President Trump and his deputies far too much power, essentially to shut down some parts of the government and maybe never reopen it." (Katie Edmondson, [06:11])
• The backlash from activists and party members against Schumer’s March decision loomed large for months, deeply dividing the party.

2. Why Now? What’s Changed Since March

Timestamp: 07:51 – 10:00

• According to Katie Edmondson, Democrats point to three major developments:
  1. Medicaid Cuts: Republicans passed the “big beautiful bill” with deep Medicaid cuts that remain deeply unpopular.
  2. Expiring Obamacare Subsidies: Tax credits for ACA coverage are about to expire, risking higher premiums for millions.
  3. White House Funding Clawbacks: The Trump administration’s unilateral moves to rescind or freeze funding approved by Congress, especially foreign aid, have intensified Democratic opposition.
• “If you want our votes to keep the government open, then we want you to reverse the Medicaid cuts… and extend those subsidies.” (Katie Edmondson, [08:29])

3. The Republican Response

Timestamp: 10:35 – 12:21

• Republicans, represented by Senator John Thune, argue they offered a simple, “clean” short-term spending extension and that it’s Democrats who are gunning for non-budget policy wins via shutdown leverage.
• “This is totally avoidable. It is a decision they’re going to have to make. And if the government shuts down, it is on the Senate Democrats.” (John Thune, [12:21])
• Republicans point to the precedent of cooperating on stopgaps when they were in the minority as evidence Democrats are acting in bad faith.

4. Escalation: Misinformation and Political Theater

Timestamp: 12:35 – 13:41

• Edmondson describes Trump’s use of an inflammatory deepfake video targeting Democratic leaders with racist caricatures and false claims, further souring any remaining chance of negotiation.
• “That video... really said, this is not the time for negotiation. We’re not taking you seriously.” (Katie Edmondson, [13:45])

5. The Stakes & Why This Shutdown Could Be Different

Timestamp: 14:00 – 15:58

• The administration signals an intention to maximize pain and political cost, laying off workers, closing parks, and seeking to pin blame on Democrats.
• Edmondson notes this approach led Democrats to conclude: since Trump would weaponize the bureaucracy anyway, there’s “nothing to lose” by using a shutdown as a line-in-the-sand protest.
• “What the Democrats feared most during a shutdown, in their minds, was happening in the absence of a shutdown.” (Barbaro, [15:21])

6. The Votes & Schedule

Timestamp: 16:25 – 17:07

• Both parties hold strategy luncheons.
• Each side’s spending bill fails in the Senate on party-line votes just before midnight. The government shuts down officially at 12:00 a.m.

7. Digging Deeper: Is This All About Health Care?

Timestamp: 17:23 – 19:51

• Lawmakers debate whether this shutdown is solely about health care or “Senate Democrats finally saying enough on all kinds of fronts.”
• Democrats argue that health care hits home and is the most pressing cost-of-living issue; Republicans say it’s wrong to hold government functions hostage for policy aims.
• “It’s time for Democrats to stand up and say, no more.” (Michael Barbaro echoing Democratic sentiment, [18:10])

8. The Mood Inside the Capitol

Timestamp: 19:29 – 19:54

• Edmondson observes far less hand-wringing among Democrats this time, replaced by a sense of resolve: “Most Democrats... are pretty steadfast in their resolve to pick this fight.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“By shutting down the government, they were going to cede President Trump and his deputies far too much power... to shut down some parts of the government and maybe never reopen it.”
— Katie Edmondson ([06:11])

“As bad as passing the CR is, as I said, allowing Donald Trump to take even much more power via a government shutdown is a far worse option.”
— Senator Chuck Schumer ([05:59])

"We are not going to be held hostage for over a trillion dollars in new spending on a continuing resolution."
— Senator John Thune ([10:49])

“[A shutdown’s] pain is going to be as public as possible, and for the Democrats to bear the political blame for that pain.”
— Katie Edmondson on Trump administration’s strategy ([14:00])

“Having been burned the last time, there's nothing to lose from taking a principled stand against this administration and using the shutdown as a public, principled, policy-oriented act of protest.”
— Michael Barbaro ([15:29])

Exclusive Interview: Senator Chuck Schumer

Timestamp: 21:40 – 27:26

• Schumer describes three reasons why this shutdown is different:

  1. Massive health care cuts since March
  2. Time to unify and prepare the Democratic caucus
  3. The Trump administration’s acts of “impoundments” and “rescissions” making past deals meaningless

• “So those three things were very significant changes. I think I did the right decision back in March, and this is the right decision now, given those changes.” ([23:34])

• When pressed on whether this is just about health care or also about “unplugging a government [Democrats] find abusing its power,” Schumer says health care is the top cost driver for Americans and a means to stop Trump in other areas.

• Confronted with polling that health care isn’t foremost for voters:

  “That poll shows cost of living is number one. And when you break down cost of living, health care is at the very top of the list. Okay. And second, it’s now going to be much more apparent because starting tomorrow, millions of American families are going to get notice that their increases are going up.” ([24:28])

• On Trump’s deepfake video:

  “It tells me the Republicans are not taking this issue seriously. It tells me that they’re trying to intimidate us. This doesn’t intimidate me. I mean, gee whiz… Did it piss you off? No. It made me think even less of Trump. He’s like a five-year-old.” ([26:19])

• Schumer: "But I think that the bottom line is... we're doing something to actually help people and the people are going to rally behind us." ([26:48])

Historical Perspective: Carl Hulse

Timestamp: 28:46 – 34:33

• Carl Hulse reflects: The Democrats as a party have changed. Centrist Democrats from red and purple states who traditionally feared punishment over shutdowns are mostly gone.

  “They like government. But they’re also out there saying, hey, we are for the government, but we have to shut down the government to show that we’re for it. It can be a tough sell.” ([31:22])

• Trump has “radicalized” Democratic strategy. Where once only Republicans were willing to risk shutdowns, now their base demands Democrats take stands, sometimes even at the cost of government disruption.

• Hulse warns success is not guaranteed:

  “This is a gamble because it could totally blow up in their face. But it could also reaffirm, if this works out for them, that they can take bold steps to fight Trump and that their constituents will support them...” ([33:52])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Opening and setting the stage: 00:31 – 03:35
• History and March decision: 03:35 – 07:01
• What’s changed and Democrats’ new demands: 07:51 – 10:00
• Republican response/negotiations breakdown: 10:35 – 12:21
• Trump’s deepfake and breakdown in decorum: 12:35 – 13:45
• Costs and stakes of shutdown: 14:00 – 15:58
• Inside the Capitol on shutdown day: 16:25 – 19:29
• Interview: Senator Schumer: 21:40 – 27:26
• Capitol perspective, historical context (Carl Hulse): 28:46 – 34:33

Conclusion & Takeaways

• The Democratic Party, once seen as a steward of government stability, has shifted strategy under Trump, willing to risk a shutdown for what it calls a “principled act of protest” over health care, budgeting process norms, and the Trump administration’s overreach.
• This move represents a significant gamble — one that could reshape how both parties approach governing and shutdown politics in the years to come.
• The outcome, as the episode closes on a deserted Capitol, remains uncertain. Will this play energize the Democratic base, or will the real-world consequences boomerang on them? As Carl Hulse puts it: “You never know how this is going to play out. You really don’t.”