The Daily — "The Midterms Begin With a Texas-Size Showdown"

Date: March 3, 2026
Host: Michael Barbaro
Guest: Shane Goldmacher (National Political Correspondent, The New York Times)

Overview

This episode dives into the opening of the 2026 midterm elections, focusing on the Texas Senate primaries. The discussion explores how these races encapsulate the challenges and shifts both parties face in the Trump era’s second chapter, highlighting Texas as a battleground for competing visions within both the Republican and Democratic parties.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Texas? The Stakes and the Setting

• Texas as a Bellwether: The state is "the big kickoff of the midterm season" ([01:55]), featuring the year's most expensive and closely watched primaries.
  • Quote, Shane Goldmacher [02:34]:
    "This Texas race has a little bit of everything. It's a fight over race. It's a fight over religion, it's a fight over ideology, it's a fight over Donald Trump, it's a fight over electability. It is, in short, a fight over almost everything that we fight about in American politics."
• Massive Spending: Over $100 million already spent just on primary advertising ([04:04]).
• Central Question: Both parties are navigating their internal identity crises, using Texas as a proving ground.

2. The Republican Senate Primary: Old Guard vs. Trumpism

a. John Cornyn – The Embattled Incumbent

• Longtime Incumbent, Now Vulnerable:
  • Has represented Texas for 20 years; theoretically a shoo-in ([04:40]).
  • “Cornyn has committed some sins in the eyes of Republican primary voters, which is that he has broken at times with Donald Trump.” ([04:40])
• His Record on Trump:
  • Broke with Trump post-Jan 6, open about doubts on Trump’s electability:
  • Cornyn (quote repeated in analysis) [05:46]:
    “I think President Trump's time has passed him by.”
• Rebrand Under Pressure:
  • Cornyn tries to shore up his Trump credentials:
  • Cornyn campaign video [06:20]:
    "In President Trump’s first term, I was Republican whip delivering the votes for his biggest win."
• Unusual for Such a Challenge:
  • Most sitting Republican Senators don’t face credible primary opponents ([06:57]).

b. Ken Paxton – The Trumpian Challenger

• Attorney General of Texas:
  • [07:10]: “A person in the mold of Donald Trump.”
  • Perpetually embroiled in scandal: indicted, impeached, accused of corruption ([08:38]).
  • Has “never been skeptical about Donald Trump” ([07:45]).
  • Instrumental in Texas's legal effort to overturn 2020 results, aligning closely with Trump’s style.
• Strengths & Vulnerabilities:
  • Loved by the base despite (or because of) controversies ([08:38]).
  • Seen by party establishment as a general election liability:
    “Ken Paxton could make the seat something Democrats could conceivably win.” ([09:09])
• Party Establishment's Calculus:
  • Wants to avoid a Paxton nomination, is actively intervening to help Cornyn ([09:34]).

c. Wesley Hunt – Possible Spoiler

• Younger Black Congressman:
  • Presents an alternative to both Paxton and Cornyn ([09:57]).
  • His rise triggers both main campaigns to attack him, aiming for a two-candidate runoff ([10:37]).
  • “In Texas, you have to get 50% to become the nominee … So what they're both doing is trying to ensure that they get to face each other in a runoff.” ([10:39])

d. Trump’s Role: The Decider-in-Chief

• Cornyn courting Trump:
  • Hires Trump’s pollster, super PAC led by Trump strategists ([12:35]).
• Trump has not endorsed:
  • Michael Barbaro [13:18]: “Trump could probably decide this race with a tweet or social.”
  • Trump sees Paxton as a kindred spirit; wary of wasting his endorsement ([13:24]).
• Bigger Meaning:
  • “It’s a test of [Trump’s] approach’s popularity and not just his personal popularity. Is the Trump style that Ken Paxton mimics gonna be successful into the future beyond Donald Trump?” ([14:31])

3. Democratic Senate Primary: The Healer vs. The Fighter

a. James Talarico – The Uniter/Healer

• Rising Star:
  • “This American democracy is a lot more than a constitution. It's a covenant.” ([18:25])
  • Deeply religious, seminary-trained, launched campaign to heal and unite.
  • Appeared on Joe Rogan ([19:14]), prompting Rogan to say:
    Rogan [20:17]: “You need to run for president.”
• Became the Democratic front-runner:
  • “He enters this race around Labor Day and just shoots off like a rocket ship, raises gobs and gobs of money online.” ([21:25])

b. Jasmine Crockett – The Fighter/Asteroid

• Congressional Firebrand:
  • Gained national fame for viral committee clashes and sharp retorts ([22:18]).
  • Openly attacks Texas’s governor (“Governor Hot Wheels” [22:59]) and embraces direct, aggressive style:
• Defines Campaign in Trump’s Terms:
  • Her opening ad is “narrated” by Trump, who insults her, which she flips into a badge of honor ([23:59]):
    “The entire ad is narrated by Donald Trump … and she's open about her plans. She doesn’t want to go heal ... She is going to mobilize and create a new electorate of Democrats.” ([24:09])
• Party Drama and Racial Tensions:
  • “Allies of Talarico have pointed to old statements that Crockett made about Latino voters...And some of Crockett's allies, and Crockett herself, have criticized Talarico...as racist.” ([25:48])
  • Crockett (Black), Talarico (White) – racial rhetoric impacts arguments about electability ([26:16]).

c. Outside Interference and Viral Moments

• Republicans stoke the primary:
  • GOP pollsters promote Crockett’s chances, believing she would be easier to beat ([25:12]).
• Colbert Segment Controversy:
  • Talarico’s Late Show appearance gets pulled over FCC rules, becomes a viral moment used to argue his appeal threatens Republicans ([27:36]).

d. Central Democratic Dilemma

• Identity Crisis:
  • Barbaro [29:08]: “This fight is the exact same fight that the Democratic Party's gonna be going through in other races this year and in a bigger race in 2028. What is the future face of the Democratic Party? … Do you mobilize your base? Do you reach for swing voters? Can you do both?"

4. General Election Projection & Broader Implications

• Republican Nightmare Scenario:
  • Paxton vs. Talarico: Seen as the matchup most threatening to GOP chances ([30:37]).
  • GOP is “trying to avoid” this and encouraging Crockett’s nomination ([30:46]).
• Texas’s Growing Importance:
  • Will gain seats in next census; both parties see Texas as critical to long-term power ([31:18]).
  • Goldmacher [31:18]: “This is not a state that Democrats think they can let fall off the map...Can you find a candidate, a message, a style to make Texas competitive?”

Memorable Quotes & Moments (With Timestamps)

• “This Texas race has a little bit of everything... It is, in short, a fight over almost everything that we fight about in American politics.”
  — Shane Goldmacher [02:34]

• John Cornyn (in campaign ad): “I don't believe we need to make Texas like Chuck Schumer's New York or Nancy Pelosi's California. We need to make the rest of the country more like Texas.”
  [04:30]

• Ken Paxton: “We sued [other states] 107 times over four years, and they didn't like it.”
  [07:22]

• Crockett: “Y'all know we got Governor Hot Wheels down there. Come on now. And the only thing hot about him is that he is a hot ass mess, honey.”
  [23:03]

• Talarico: “This American democracy is a lot more than a constitution. It's a covenant.”
  [18:25]

• Joe Rogan: “You need to run for president.” (To Talarico)
  [20:17]

• Barbaro: “Trump could probably decide this race with a tweet or social.”
  [13:18]

• Goldmacher: “If Republicans are afraid that Ken Paxton could lose this race for them, they're confident that Jasmine Crockett could also win this race for them.”
  [25:27]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Texas Race Framing: 02:00–04:20
• Republican Primary Dynamics: 04:20–15:19
• Role of Trump: 12:35–14:31
• Democratic Primary, Talarico: 17:03–21:44
• Crockett’s Entrance, Dynamic with Talarico: 21:46–25:48
• Colbert/FCC Viral Moment: 27:30–28:22
• General Election Scenarios & Texas’s Importance: 30:11–31:53

Takeaways

• Texas’s Senate primary is a microcosm of national political upheaval—deeply polarized, driven by questions of identity, ideology, and the legacy/future of Trumpism.
• Republicans face a classic establishment vs. base dilemma, with Trump as the ultimate kingmaker—but even he is cautious.
• Democrats are testing whether a uniting message or a combative style will work best, with debates over race, strategy, and the limits of party identity playing out in real time.
• Both parties know Texas is an emerging mega-state essential to their future—and the results could foreshadow national trends to come.

Summary prepared for listeners seeking a comprehensive understanding of this pivotal episode and its implications for the 2026 midterms and beyond.