The Daily – "Trump Goes After Venezuela’s Oil"

Date: December 24, 2025
Host: Natalie Kitroeff
Guest: Anatoly Khmernayev, Latin America correspondent
Podcast: The New York Times – The Daily

Episode Overview

This episode analyzes the dramatic escalation in the Trump administration’s policy toward Venezuela—specifically, the recent U.S. military seizures of Venezuelan oil tankers in the Caribbean Sea. Host Natalie Kitroeff speaks with journalist Anatoly Khmernayev to unravel why President Trump is shifting tactics from military actions against alleged drug runners to a bold economic offensive, and what these moves reveal about the administration’s aims in Venezuela, the global oil market, U.S. foreign policy priorities, and the humanitarian consequences for ordinary Venezuelans.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. A Shift from Military to Economic Pressure

• Escalation: The Trump administration has moved from targeting alleged drug boats to seizing oil tankers carrying Venezuelan oil—the country’s chief source of revenue.
  • Quote (Anatoly Khmernayev, 02:04):
    “The U.S. Government has moved away from boat strikes ... and they have moved towards Venezuelan oil ... with a very clear attempt to squeeze the country’s finances, squeeze them to the point of strangulation, and achieve results they have not been able to achieve through military ends.”

2. The Seizure Campaign Begins

• Tanker Seizures: On December 10, U.S. agents boarded and seized the tanker Skipper (carrying 2 million barrels of oil) en route to China. This was followed by seizures and chases of additional tankers.
  • Memorable moment (04:01):
    “U.S. Navy helicopters swarm the tanker, who rappel from a helicopter coming onto the deck ... guns drawn, and took control of a vessel.”
• Initially Seen as PR: The first seizure was interpreted as a dramatic but isolated move; subsequent tankers revealed a broader campaign (05:05).

3. Goals and Justifications

• Official Messaging: The stated rationale shifted over time, growing more explicit about seeking regime change by toppling President Nicolás Maduro.
  • Quote (Khmernayev, 02:48):
    “It’s the biggest economic pressure against a Latin American state that we’ve seen in decades.”
• Trump’s Rhetoric: Trump claims to be “righting a historical wrong,” referencing (somewhat inaccurately) past nationalizations of oil assets by Venezuela.
  • Quote (Khmernayev, 09:21):
    “The short answer is that We Don’t Know... a very incoherent text that does not neatly match on any historical events.”

4. Chevron Exception and Policy Contradictions

• Chevron Continues Operating: Despite sanctions, U.S. oil giant Chevron continues to operate in Venezuela through a unique arrangement, providing oil to both Venezuela and the U.S.
  This exception highlights the tensions between “maximum pressure” and U.S. interests in preventing Venezuelan oil from falling fully into Chinese hands.
  • Quote (Khmernayev, 11:35):
    “There’s a clear intention to starve Maduro of funds ... On the other hand, the U.S. is preoccupied with Venezuela’s energy asset falling into Chinese hands ... These contradictions make it very difficult for anyone to understand what will happen in Venezuela next.”

5. Economic Impact on Venezuela

• Plummeting Oil Exports: Seizures have sharply reduced Venezuela’s exports and triggered deep anxiety inside the Maduro government.
• Popular Sentiment: Many Venezuelans oppose Maduro and are willing to tolerate economic hardship if it promises regime change.
  • Quote (Khmernayev, 14:48):
    “Most people in Venezuela dislike Maduro. They want him gone ... they are prepared to put up with some economic pain if it means Maduro leaving office.”
• Humanitarian Risks: There is widespread fear among Venezuelans and officials that, if Maduro withstands this campaign, the population will be left even worse off—living through prolonged poverty and isolation.

6. Risks: Uprising, Migration, Regional Spillover

• U.S. Calculations: The White House appears to be betting that intensified economic pain will either trigger an uprising or prompt Maduro’s exit via internal coup.
  • Quote (White House Chief of Staff Susie Biles, 17:52):
    “The U.S. is going to keep blowing a boat until Maduro cries uncle.”
• Migration Paradox: The policy could worsen conditions, prompting a surge in migration—the very outcome Trump’s administration seeks to prevent.
  • Quote (Khmernayev, 19:48):
    “It is dramatically worsening economic conditions in Venezuela, which, if it continues, is going to lead to another increase in migration from the country.”

7. Diplomatic Possibilities

• Room for Negotiation: Despite bellicose headlines, there is the possibility of a deal: previous negotiations almost led to increased American oil investment and a redirection of oil flows from China to the U.S.
  • Quote (Khmernayev, 21:00):
    “Underneath these dramatic events actually appears to be a potential diplomatic solution...”

8. Geopolitical Stakes: Control of Oil and Regional Dominance

• If Successful: U.S. control (or influence) over the world’s largest oil reserves would grant it immense leverage over oil supply and global pricing, and further its strategic goal of dominating the Americas while sidelining China, Russia, and Iran.
  • Quote (Khmernayev, 22:23):
    “Control of the world’s largest oil reserves would allow the United States to follow through on its plan of becoming the dominant player in the Americas...”
• Chinese & Russian Reactions: Both countries offer only muted protest—they accept Latin America as a U.S. sphere of influence for now, each focused on more pressing matters.
  • Quote (Khmernayev, 24:05):
    “They have bigger fish to fry. But Trump’s actions also fit into these countries’ fundamental worldview, which sees regional powers as having the right to dominate their neighbors.”

9. Likelihood of Military Escalation

• Paradox: Despite more aggressive economic actions and high-profile naval activity, the risk of military conflict may be receding as space opens for a negotiated settlement.
  • Quote (Khmernayev, 25:50):
    “Paradoxically, perhaps, we are seeing a ramp down of the escalations ... we are seeing the emergence of a potential off ramp, of a potential diplomatic deal...”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Analogies

• “It’s the biggest economic pressure against a Latin American state that we’ve seen in decades.” (Khmernayev, 02:48)
• “Maduro is not just angry, he's bananas.” (Khmernayev, 06:03)
• “If oil gets more expensive, are you going to drink less? No, sweetie, you’re going to eat less.” – Soviet anecdote (Khmernayev, 19:18)
• “We are seeing ... a ramp down of the escalations ... On the other hand, however, we are seeing the emergence of a potential off ramp of a potential diplomatic deal...” (Khmernayev, 25:50)
• “The so-called multipolar world has been something that Putin has been talking about for years ... and Trump’s actions are bringing this world into reality.” (Khmernayev, 24:54)

Important Timestamps

• [02:04] – Shift from military strikes to economic attacks on oil shipments
• [03:36] – U.S. agents seize the first oil tanker, setting the new tone
• [06:03] – Venezuelan government’s furious response
• [09:18] – Trump invokes historical disputes over nationalized oil assets
• [11:35] – Chevron’s special status and policy contradictions exposed
• [14:48] – Impact on everyday Venezuelans and regime survival anxiety
• [17:52] – U.S. administration’s calculus: pressuring until Maduro “cries uncle” or is ousted
• [19:48] – Contradictions: economic coercion and migration consequences
• [21:00] – Diplomatic off-ramps: possible negotiated deals for U.S. investment
• [22:23] – Geopolitical stakes: oil, influence, and sidelining adversaries
• [24:05] – China and Russia’s muted response, acceptance of U.S. sphere of influence
• [25:50] – Irony: Military tensions rise but a diplomatic resolution now looks more plausible

Takeaways

• The U.S. has profoundly escalated its confrontation with Venezuela by shifting from targeted military actions to overt economic warfare—specifically, the direct seizure of oil tankers.
• The publicly stated goal is now regime change, but justifications also circle around historic grievances and strategic interests.
• Key contradictions in U.S. policy remain: pressure for regime change versus desire to prevent Chinese (and Russian) inroads; a hardline stance that both threatens stability and could provoke mass migration.
• For average Venezuelans, already battered by years of crisis and sanctions, this escalation brings new hardship and uncertainty.
• Geopolitically, the campaign tests the wider framework of great-power competition and may be reshaping spheres of influence, as other major powers register only muted opposition.
• Despite dramatic headlines and military signaling, there may be space for diplomacy amid the chaos—though the outlook remains volatile and deeply uncertain.

Summary compiled by The Daily Podcast Summarizer – preserving the clarity, tone, and substance of the original discussion, with clear attributions and critical moments contextualized.