The Daily – Trump Says the Economy Is Good. Is It?

Date: December 19, 2025
Hosts: Natalie Kitroeff (NYT), with reporting from Tony Romm and Ben Casselman

Overview

This episode explores President Trump’s recent efforts to reassure Americans that the U.S. economy is healthy, despite widespread public dissatisfaction with affordability and persistent inflation. Through interviews with Tony Romm (White House correspondent) and Ben Casselman (economics reporter), the episode examines Trump’s messaging, policy claims, and what new economic data reveals about Americans’ ongoing frustrations and the reality behind political promises.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Public Discontent and White House Messaging

• Americans Are Unhappy:

  • Growing disapproval of Trump’s economic handling (00:44).
  • Everyday struggles: “Everything has just went up double.” (00:56)
  • Specific anxieties: food prices, housing (01:02), inability to retire (01:10).

• Trump’s Response:

  • Initial tendency to dismiss affordability concerns as exaggerated (“hoax”) (04:02).
  • Shifted messaging in a national address, emphasizing improvements and future stimulus (05:01, 05:50).
  • Administration now asks for public patience, promising that forthcoming tax cuts and rebates will improve conditions in 2026 (07:55).

2. Trump’s Messaging and Economic Policy Details

• Bumpy, Contradictory Messaging:

  • Pennsylvania rally: Trump veers off-topic, mocks “affordability” as a political hoax, recommends buying fewer dolls and pencils to combat high prices (03:57–04:25).

    • Memorable quip: “If I read what’s on the teleprompter, you’d all be falling asleep right now.” – Donald Trump (03:36)

  • Days later, national address: more focus but claims exaggerated or inaccurate data, touts achievements.

    • “Eleven months ago, I inherited a mess, and I’m fixing it.” – Donald Trump (04:56)
    • “We’re poised for an economic boom the likes of which the world has never seen.” – Donald Trump (06:04)

• Key Proposals and Promises:

  • Rolls out timeline for policy effects—especially tax cuts passed by Congress (07:55).
  • Americans to receive bigger tax refunds, especially those in certain categories (08:31).
  • Floats $2,000 rebate checks for those earning under $100,000, funded by tariff revenues (09:53), though logistics and support remain unclear (10:07, 11:00).

• Persistent Policy:

  • Despite shifting rhetoric, underlying approach—tariffs, “stay the course”—remains fixed (06:54, 07:43).

• Political Opportunity and Risk:

  • Messaging: "Hold tight, relief is coming soon."
  • Real risk: American patience is wearing thin, and there's danger in banking on future improvements while hardship is acute now (11:25).

3. Ground-Level Economic Reality (with Ben Casselman)

• Headline Data Looks Stagnant or Worse:

  • Unemployment up to 4.6% (16:44).
  • “By most measures, things are actually worse today than they were a year ago.” – Ben Casselman (14:40)
  • Wage growth slowed, hiring is rare—“low hire, low fire” economy (17:18).
  • If you have a job, you’re keeping it, but raises or new roles are scarce.

• Core Frustrations Remain:

  • Costs of housing, childcare, health care still unaffordable (15:25).
  • Stagnation in middle-class lifestyle despite continued employment.

• Inflation:

  • Overall inflation rate has cooled (2.7% over previous year) (18:49).
  • Food costs remain up significantly—grocery prices up 25% in five years, beef up 15% in one (19:32–19:37).
    • “The fact that [prices are] only up 2% over the last year doesn’t make people feel great.” – Ben Casselman (19:38)
    • Persistent perception: prices aren’t falling, just rising less quickly.

• Spending and Wealth Divide:

  • Retail sales strong, but driven by high-income earners (20:45–21:38).
  • Many lower/middle-income Americans are cutting back, feeling pinched.

• Segmentation and Economic Experience:

  • Unemployment higher for Black workers and young people (21:50).
  • Stock market gains benefit the wealthier, wage increases lag.

4. Economic Prognosis for 2026

• Stimulus Effect:

  • Larger tax refunds could have positive short-term effect on sentiment and spending (24:41–25:12).
    • “We’ve seen this before. We saw it during the pandemic … There’s no reason to think that those circumstances of economic laws don’t apply now.” – Ben Casselman (25:07)

• Limits of Stimulus:

  • Underlying issues like healthcare costs, housing, and child/elder care will not be solved by tax refunds (25:40–26:50).
  • If Obamacare subsidies expire or benefits are cut, the pain may increase for many.

• Long-Term Sentiment:

  • Even if things get marginally better, without substantive fixes to structural issues, public unhappiness may persist.
    • “There’s nothing that we’re seeing right now that’s going to get at these sort of fundamental problems that have led Americans for years now to feel like this economy is not working for them.” – Ben Casselman (26:42)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Narrative Shift:
  “President Trump did turn to the economy several times during his speech. And on the issue of affordability…he called it a hoax.”
  — Tony Romm (03:57–04:03)

• On Public Patience:
  “You might remember…when he first started introducing his tariffs, the message from the White House was there might be some short term pain…but they said that was in the service of a better economy. And so we’re now seeing what that pain looks like.”
  — Tony Romm (11:53)

• On Economic Data:
  “On the surface, the numbers were really pretty good…[but] grocery prices are up 25% over the past five years.”
  — Ben Casselman (19:03, 19:32)

• On Stimulus and Sentiment:
  “Yes, maybe. People like getting money, and when money flows into the economy, it ripples through and has wide reaching effects.”
  — Ben Casselman (24:41)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Public Stresses and Trump’s Early Messaging: 00:44–04:25
• Trump Changes Tone in National Address: 04:56–06:42
• Tax Cuts, Refunds, and “Stay the Course”: 07:43–11:25
• White House's Risk and Public Patience: 11:25–13:04
• State of the Economy w/ Ben Casselman: 14:11–26:54
  • Economy stagnating: 14:40–17:18
  • Inflation and grocery prices: 18:49–20:27
  • Retail spending and economic divides: 20:45–21:50
  • Big picture/structural problems: 22:23–26:54

Tone and Style

The conversation is measured, fact-driven, and at times wry—mirroring The Daily’s empathetic and explanatory style, with moments of dry humor (Trump riffing on teleprompters and “the weave”) and direct, lived-experience accounts from ordinary Americans.

Conclusion

President Trump’s increasingly urgent attempts to claim improvement in the economy are undercut by continuing public frustration, stagnating wage growth, and persistent high prices for basics like food and housing. While imminent policy changes, such as increased tax refunds, may offer temporary relief, the deeper, structural challenges fueling Americans’ economic anxiety remain largely unaddressed—leaving a wide gap between political messaging and people’s everyday experiences.