Trump Shocks Europe

Summary

Summary of "Trump Shocks Europe" Episode from The Daily

Released on February 17, 2025

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Introduction

In the episode titled "Trump Shocks Europe," hosts Rachel Abrams and Anton Choinovsky delve into a seismic shift in U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration. This transformation has profound implications for the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, the transatlantic alliance, and the broader geopolitical landscape. The discussion highlights how recent actions by President Donald Trump have altered America's approach to Russia and Ukraine, sparking confusion and concern among long-standing European allies.

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Trump's Departure from Biden’s Foreign Policy

The episode begins by contrasting President Trump's current foreign policy maneuvers with those of his predecessor, President Biden. Under Biden, the U.S. strategy focused on isolating Vladimir Putin diplomatically and economically to pressure Russia into ceasing its aggression in Ukraine. This approach emphasized sanctions and a united Western front to prevent Russia from exploiting divisions within the West.

Rachel Abrams (01:28):
"Donald Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine. And this past week he has turned his attention to that conflict, but in a way that has been really scrambling the picture, not just for Ukraine, not just for Russia, but really for all of Europe."

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Key Events: Mark Fog's Release and the Trump-Putin Call

A pivotal moment occurred when the Trump administration facilitated the release of Mark Fog, an American schoolteacher held in Russia, through a direct diplomatic intervention. Steve Witkoff, Trump's Middle East envoy, traveled to Moscow and returned Fog on the president's plane—a first since before the war began.

Subsequently, President Trump engaged in a 90-minute phone call with Vladimir Putin, marking the first such dialogue between an American president and the Russian leader since Russia's invasion of Ukraine three years prior.

Anton Choinovsky (01:49):
"The first time that we know of that an American president spoke to the Russian leader since Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago."

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Content and Implications of the Trump-Putin Call

During the call, as reported by Trump on social media, both leaders reminisced about their nations' shared history, particularly their alliance in World War II. Trump emphasized their mutual desire to end the war in Ukraine and lauded Putin's use of "common sense"—a campaign motto from Trump's own rhetoric.

Trump's Social Media Statement (04:03):
"In this call, he and Putin both reflected on the great history of our nations and the fact that we fought so successfully together in World War II. ... both agreed that they want to stop the war in Ukraine."

This unilateral approach signaled Trump's intention to negotiate peace independently, bypassing Ukraine and possibly undermining the coordinated efforts previously championed by the Biden administration.

Anton Choinovsky (05:10):
"Which was yet another major departure from the Biden administration's approach. The Biden administration's philosophy that they repeated over and over was nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. And here Trump threw that completely out the window."

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Pete Hegseth's Speech and Its Consequences

On the same day as Trump's call with Putin, Pete Hegseth, the new U.S. Defense Secretary, addressed NATO and European defense ministers in Brussels. Hegseth made several significant concessions:

• Territorial Claims: Declared that returning Ukraine to its pre-2014 borders (before Crimea's annexation) was unrealistic.
• NATO Membership: Stated that Ukraine joining NATO was not a realistic outcome of any negotiated settlement.
• U.S. Military Presence: Assured that U.S. troops would not be deployed to Ukraine for peacekeeping missions.

Hegseth's Statement (06:53 - 07:43):
"A durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees... the United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement."
"If there were to be a peace deal, American troops would not be part of any peacekeeping mission."

These remarks were perceived as premature and counterproductive, undermining Europe's ability to secure Ukraine's sovereignty and deterring Russian aggression without robust U.S. support.

Anton Choinovsky (08:07):
"Those concessions that Hegseth made placed Europe in an incredibly tough spot... how do you guarantee Ukraine's security and deter a renewed Russian invasion... if the U.S. isn't involved?"

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JD Vance's Munich Security Conference Speech

At the Munich Security Conference, Vice President JD Vance delivered a speech that further complicated the transatlantic relationship. Instead of addressing Trump's foreign policy directly, Vance criticized Europe for internal issues, echoing narratives similar to those of Putin.

JD Vance (13:24):
"The threat that I worry the most about vis a vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China... the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values."
"They intend to shut down social media during times of civil unrest the moment they spot what they've judged to be hateful content."

Vance's remarks painted Europe as internally flawed, diverting attention from external threats like Russia and suggesting that Europe is responsible for its own security challenges. This stance signaled a potential shift away from the U.S. being the steadfast ally Europe has depended on since World War II.

Anton Choinovsky (15:37):
"JD Vance is signaling the possibility that America will no longer be that key ally of Western Europe and the European Union that it was for all those decades."

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Reactions from Allies and Russia

The Trump administration's actions elicited varied responses:

• In Russia: There was considerable elation, with the Russian stock market rising over 5%, the ruble strengthening, and pro-Putin politicians lauding the developments as significant victories.

• In the West: European allies were left confused and concerned. The lack of pre-coordination with allies shattered the Biden-era model of a united Western front. Adjustments to this new approach were unclear, especially with upcoming events like the Munich Security Conference.

Rachel Abrams (09:23):
"How was all of this received, this call between Trump and Putin and the Hegseth speech?"
Anton Choinovsky (09:29):
"In Moscow, there was quite a bit of elation... but also shock and confusion in the West."

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Implications for Ukraine and Peace Talks

The episode explores the challenging dynamics of negotiating peace in Ukraine without Ukraine's active participation. While the U.S. remains Ukraine's largest ally, Putin views Ukraine's leadership as heavily influenced by Washington, complicating direct negotiations between the U.S. and Russia.

Anton Choinovsky (18:00):
"Zelensky has said that Ukraine will not accept a deal that they were not a part of in negotiating."
"Zelensky and the Ukrainians are saying they need security guarantees... to deter a renewed Russian invasion."

The absence of European involvement, as indicated by Trump's envoy Keith Kellogg's remarks, further complicates potential peace talks. Ukraine's substantial financial contributions to the war effort underscore its vested interest in any settlement.

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Ukrainian Public Opinion

Ukrainian public sentiment is a critical factor in the ongoing conflict. The war's protracted duration has led to significant fatigue, with increased openness to compromise despite deep-seated skepticism about Putin's willingness to negotiate in good faith.

Anton Choinovsky (20:12):
"There's intense fatigue with the war there. The war has lasted almost three years now... higher readiness, according to the polls, to some kind of compromise with Russia."

However, the pervasive distrust in Russia and the need for solid security guarantees ensure that any peace deal must align closely with Ukraine's sovereignty and future security needs.

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Conclusion: Shift in Transatlantic Alliance and Global Order

The episode concludes by emphasizing the broader implications of the Trump administration's policies. The potential realignment of U.S. support away from Europe disrupts the established transatlantic alliance, potentially enabling Russia to claim a strategic victory if it can secure favorable terms through these new negotiations.

Anton Choinovsky (21:13):
"It really feels like a moment where that world order that we were all used to has started to crumble."
"If Putin, through these peace talks, is able to settle the war more or less on his terms, then that'll be something he presents as a big victory."

The episode underscores the critical juncture at which global alliances find themselves, highlighting the risks of diminished U.S. commitment to Europe and the uncertain path forward for resolving one of the most significant conflicts of our time.

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Notable Quotes:

• Trump on Social Media:
  "In this call, he and Putin both reflected on the great history of our nations and the fact that we fought so successfully together in World War II... both agreed that they want to stop the war in Ukraine." (04:03)

• JD Vance at Munich Security Conference:
  "The threat that I worry the most about vis a vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China... the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values." (13:24)

• Anton Choinovsky:
  "Which was yet another major departure from the Biden administration's approach... Trump threw that completely out the window." (05:10)
  "It really feels like a moment where that world order that we were all used to has started to crumble." (21:23)

---

This episode of The Daily provides a comprehensive analysis of the Trump administration's unprecedented moves in foreign policy, their immediate repercussions, and the long-term ramifications for international relations and global stability.

Transcript

[Podcast Host]

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[Rachel Abrams]

The new York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams. This is the Daily A few days ago, the Trump administration began blowing up America's existing approach to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine by embracing Russia and snubbing Ukraine. And that shift has quickly turned into a broader assault on America's relationship with Europe. Today, Moscow bureau chief Anton Choinovsky on how it's all adding up to a stunning victory for Vladimir Putin and a major setback for the once ironclad alliance between the U.S. and Europe. It's Monday, February 17th.

So Anton, during the presidential campaign, Donald Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine. And this past week he has turned his attention to that conflict, but in a way that has been really scrambling the picture, not just for Ukraine, not just for Russia, but really for all of Europe. So tell us what that has looked like from your perspective.

[Anton Choinovsky]

I mean, it's been a really extraordinary week when it comes to the Ukraine war, the transatlantic relationship, and US kind of all discovering what Trump's second term in office is really gonna mean in terms of foreign policy, because it already feels so different from his first term. The first hint that something was gonna change came early last week when surprisingly, the Russians released Mark Fog, American schoolteacher who had been in jail in Russia, to get him out. Steve Witkoff, Trump's Middle east envoy, actually flew to Moscow and then later brought him home on his plane. That was the first time that a senior American official had traveled to Russia since before the war. So that was the first thing that happened. Then on Wednesday, Trump speaks to Putin on the phone. It was a 90 minute call according to the Russians. And just the mere fact of this call was really remarkable. It was the first time that we know of that an American president spoke to the Russian leader since Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago.

[Rachel Abrams]

Right, because Biden's strategy was to isolate Putin both diplomatically and economically to put pressure on him.

[Anton Choinovsky]

Yeah, exactly. It was about sanctions, it was about don't talk to Putin. Show Russia that the fact that it launched Europe's biggest war of aggression since World War II was absolutely unacceptable and made Moscow a capital that was just not to be dealt with diplomatically. And in addition, it was all about showing a united Western front. The US Under President Biden was very, very careful to coordinate all of steps with the Europeans just to show Putin that he wasn't going to be able to divide and conquer when dealing with the West. And Trump's call, which was clearly not pre coordinated with America's allies, broke that precedent as well.

[Rachel Abrams]

So tell me more about this call. What did they talk about?

[Anton Choinovsky]

So I think you really have to read Trump's social media post about this call to really see how remarkable it was. So Trump wrote that in this call, he and Putin both reflected on the great history of our nations and the fact that we fought so successfully together in World War II. And then Trump added that he and Putin had both agreed that they want to stop the war in Ukraine and that President Putin even used Trump's very strong campaign motto of common sense. And Trump writes on social media after that call that he will then call President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian leader, to inform him of that conversation with Putin. So first he calls Putin and then he calls Zelensky to let him know how it went and what they discussed.

[Rachel Abrams]

Wow. So the message here from Trump is really, I'm gonna sit down at the negotiating table, I'm gonna make the decisions, and then I will inform you of Ukraine of what I've decided.

[Anton Choinovsky]

Exactly. Which was yet another major departure from the Biden administration's approach. The Biden administration's philosophy that they repeated over and over was nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. And here Trump threw that completely out the window.

[Rachel Abrams]

And what did Zelensky have to say about all this?

[Anton Choinovsky]

So he later said that he, in his call with Putin, Trump, that same day on Wednesday, he told Trump that Putin was a liar, someone you couldn't trust, someone who did not actually want peace, and someone who could deploy Russian troops beyond Ukraine. At the same time, Zelenskyy was saying publicly that a strong America, a strong Trump, could pressure Putin to make the kind of peace deal that Ukraine believes would be sustainable. So he really tried to kind of put a positive spin on it. But I think it was pretty clear that just the speed with which Trump appeared to embrace making a deal with Putin to end the war really caught everyone off guard, including Ukraine. And that same day, Pete Hegseth, the new US Defense secretary gave a speech in Brussels.

[Rachel Abrams]

And what did Hegseth say in that speech?

[Podcast Host]

Well, good afternoon, friends. This is my first Ukraine defense contact group, and I'm honored to join all of you today.

[Anton Choinovsky]

This was really Hegseth's debut in Europe as the head of the Pentagon, and he was speaking to NATO and European defense ministers in Brussels.

[Podcast Host]

We want, like you, a sovereign and prosperous Ukraine. But we must start by.

[Anton Choinovsky]

He said that a return to Ukraine's borders from before Putin Annexed Crimea in 2014 was, quote, an unrealistic objective.

[Podcast Host]

A durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again. That said, the United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.

[Anton Choinovsky]

He also said it was unrealistic that Ukraine would join NATO. And he said that there will not.

[Podcast Host]

Be US Troops deployed to Ukraine.

[Anton Choinovsky]

If there were to be a peace deal, American troops would not be part of any peacekeeping mission to make sure Russia didn't invade again.

[Podcast Host]

President Trump looks forward to working together, to continuing this frank discussion amongst friends and to achieve peace through strength together. Thank you.

[Anton Choinovsky]

So to step back for a second, all those things that Hegseth said were, you know, something that many people assumed behind closed doors. But it was just stunning to hear Hegseth make those concessions publicly before any kind of negotiation with Putin actually took place.

[Rachel Abrams]

Already giving away the store.

[Anton Choinovsky]

Exactly. Before you even got to talks. And so those concessions that Hegseth made that put Europe into an incredibly tough spot, because how do you guarantee Ukraine's security and deter a renewed Russian invasion at some point down the road if the US Isn't involved? You know, Russia's military is huge compared to any European country. And obviously their nuclear arsenal is far greater than anything that Europe has. So that speech really put into stark relief how much of a problem Europe was going to have in finding a way to face down Russia and Putin without the US at its back.

[Rachel Abrams]

How was all of this received, this call between Trump and Putin and the Hegsest speech?

[Anton Choinovsky]

Well, I think it's fair to say that in Moscow, there was quite a bit of elation in response. The Russian stock market was up more than 5%, the ruble, the Russian currency strengthened. You had all these pro Putin politicians posting on social media about how, like, this was such a big win for Russia and it showed Putin's status as a brilliant foreign policy strategist in Europe. There was both shock and confusion. You know, Pete Hegseth tried to walk back parts of his speech the next day. Trump said that Ukraine would be involved in the talks. So on top of just the shock, you also just had people not really understanding what exactly the approach of the administration was gonna be to Europe, to NATO, and to Russia and Ukraine. And all of this was happening just before the Munich Security Conference. This big annual gathering of security officials started on Friday in Germany. And J.D. vance, the vice president, was scheduled to give a big speech. So there was a lot of hope or at least expectation among Europeans that Vance, when he stepped up to that podium, was going to clarify where exactly the administration stood on these issues.

[Rachel Abrams]

We'll be right back.

[JD Vance]

Foreign.

[Podcast Host]

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[Rachel Abrams]

Picture for us of how America's allies are feeling really confused and concerned in this moment and that there was some hope that the vice President would offer some clarity about Ukraine. Did that happen?

[Anton Choinovsky]

It did not happen. And the fact that it didn't was really yet another stunning moment of last week.

[JD Vance]

Well, thank you and thanks to all the gathered delegates and luminaries and media professionals.

[Anton Choinovsky]

So you know, Vance gives this speech at the Munich Security Conference. It's like this massive event, probably the most high profile security forum globally where you have tons of heads of state, prime ministers, defense ministers, foreign ministers in the audience.

[JD Vance]

We're happy to be here. And you know, one of the things that I wanted to talk about today is of course, our shared values.

[Anton Choinovsky]

But instead of talking about Trump's foreign policy, he launches into this extensive criticism of Europe.

[JD Vance]

The threat that I worry the most about vis a vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China, it's not any other external actor. And what I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America.

[Anton Choinovsky]

You know, a Europe that, in his telling, has departed from its democratic roots.

[JD Vance]

That they intend to shut down social media during times of civil unrest the moment they spot what they've judged to be, quote, hateful content.

[Anton Choinovsky]

It's actually a picture of Europe that very much echoes what we've been hearing from Vladimir Putin over the last few years. You know, he's long been criticizing Europe for becoming too woke for silencing speech.

[JD Vance]

And I really do believe that allowing our citizens to speak their mind will make them stronger still. Which, of course, brings us back to Munich, where the organizers of this very conference have banned lawmakers representing populist parties on both the left and the right from participating in these conversations.

[Anton Choinovsky]

Now, again, and you know, and even more remarkable was the fact that he was doing this in Germany with the big national German election less than two weeks away, and where the German far right party is hoping to make big gains. And of course, the German far right party, the alternative for Germany, has been very much ostracized across the political spectrum in Germany for its links to neo Nazi ideology and its attempts to whitewash the Nazi past.

[JD Vance]

If you're running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you. Nor, for that matter, is there.

[Rachel Abrams]

Basically, the vice president of the United States is saying to his European allies, long standing European allies, that Russia isn't the problem here.

You are.

[Anton Choinovsky]

Exactly. And Vance here is signaling the possibility that America will no longer be that key ally of Western Europe and the European Union that it was for all those decades after the end of World War II.

[JD Vance]

We shouldn't be afraid of our people, even when they express views that disagree with their leadership. Thank you all. Good luck to all of you. God bless you.

[Anton Choinovsky]

And on top of that, we also learned during the Munich Security Conference last weekend that the Trump administration does not expect Europe to be at the table when peace talks around Ukraine finally take place. We heard from Keith Kellogg, Trump's envoy to Ukraine, say that the Trump administration expects Russia and Ukraine to be at the table. They expect the United States to act as a mediator, but that the Europeans probably won't be there. And it's worth pointing out that it would be pretty striking for Europe to be excluded like this. You know, they European countries have contributed more than $100 billion, by some counts, more than the US has in total to Ukraine over the last three years. So they clearly have a huge stake in this, too.

[Rachel Abrams]

Okay. Basically, it sounds like Europe's out, but Ukraine is in.

[Anton Choinovsky]

Well, maybe. I mean, there's so much uncertainty right now. In fact, we're actually continuing to see signs that Ukraine's involvement is in question. Just this weekend, we learned that three top US Officials, Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, Mike Waltz, the National Security Advisor, Steve Witkoff, the Middle east envoy, are all going to be in Saudi Arabia to meet with Russian officials about the war in Ukraine. And for all we know, Ukraine won't be there. So in that sense, it's not a surprise that when Volodymyr Zelensky was on Meet the Press on Sunday morning, he was insisting that Ukraine did need to be involved.

[Rachel Abrams]

Okay, but just to ask a really basic question. How do you end a war in Ukraine without Ukraine at the table?

[Anton Choinovsky]

Well, that's a great question. It is true, Rachel, that the US Is Ukraine's biggest ally. And Zelenskyy himself has said that if the US Were to pull its aid, it would be very difficult for Ukraine to survive as an independent country. On the flip side, Putin has also made it very clear that he wants to be talking to the U.S. you know, he sees Zelenskyy's government as a puppet of Washington. So there is clearly space here for conversations between the US And Russia to happen. It would just be pretty shocking for those conversations to happen without Ukraine being a part of them. But the second issue is that even if Russia and the US Were to make a deal here, you know, you would still need Ukraine to agree to it. You would need Ukraine to agree to stop fighting. And Zelensky has said very clearly that Ukraine will not accept a deal that they were not a part of in negotiating. So the big question, if these negotiations get more serious, is going to be how do you thread the needle between Putin's demands and what Ukraine would need? Putin is demanding not just to keep the territory he already has, but he also wants influence over Ukraine. He wants Ukraine's military to be limited. And then on the other hand, Zelensky and the Ukrainians are saying they need security guarantees. They need assurances that there will be a response if Putin were to try to invade again down the road. They need deterrence against Russia. And so how to thread the needle between those two things that's clearly going to be really hard. And that's what we'll be watching from here.

[Rachel Abrams]

So obviously we know what Zelensky thinks Ukraine wants and what Ukraine needs. But I'm curious about average Ukrainians. Do we know how they feel about the war and peace talks and all of this?

[Anton Choinovsky]

Well, we know from our colleagues in Ukraine that there's extremely deep skepticism across Ukraine that Putin can be seen as a good faith negotiator. At the same time, you know, if you look at our colleagues reporting from Ukraine, you see there is intense fatigue with the war there. The war has lasted almost three years now, which would have been just so unimaginable. If we think back to the beginning of 2022, obviously tens of thousands of Ukrainians, both soldiers and civilians, have died. And so what you've also been seeing over the last year or so in Ukraine is a higher readiness, according to the polls, to some kind of compromise with Russia.

[Rachel Abrams]

Anton, I feel like it's worth taking a step back here and just reckoning with what a head spinning week this has been. We've basically seen the United States embrace Russia over its long standing allies.

[Anton Choinovsky]

Yeah, I mean, it's, it's still early, but you're right, it really feels like a moment where that world order that we were all used to has, has started to crumble.

[Rachel Abrams]

Right. Most people listening to this show have grown up in a world where it's a given that the United States is aligned with Europe.

[Anton Choinovsky]

Yeah. You know, there were clearly pretty major bumps along the way that we can remember. But I struggle to remember a week like the one that we just saw where JD Vance, Pete Hegseth and Donald Trump himself just shook the foundations of that transatlantic alliance so intensely. And, you know, if you think back to Putin and the beginning of his invasion of Ukraine, in many ways this is kind of what he wanted to achieve. You know, before Putin started his invasion, I don't know if you remember, he presented this ultimatum to the west saying NATO needed to withdraw from Eastern and Central Europe and really give Russia its European sphere of influence. Back at the time, that seemed like a ludicrous demand. The west dismissed it out of hand. But here we are three years later and really kind of talking about many of the things that Putin demanded. Look, make no mistake, the cost of all this to Russia has been just extraordinary. Maybe 100,000 or more Russians have died. Something like a million have fled the country. The economy has been stretched to its breaking point. Obviously just the moral cost of having started Europe's biggest war of aggression since World War II is hard to fathom. But if Putin, through these peace talks, is able to settle the war more or less on his terms, then that'll be something he presents as a big victory. And an even bigger victory will be if, at the end of all this, he gets the US to walk away from Europe.

[Rachel Abrams]

Anton, thank you so much.

[Anton Choinovsky]

Thank you, Rachel.

[Rachel Abrams]

We'll be right back.

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[Rachel Abrams]

Else you need to know today. On Sunday, lawyers for President Trump asked the Supreme Court to let him fire the head of a federal agency that safeguards whistleblowers and enforces certain ethics laws. The move is the first test of the White House's broader challenge to limits on presidential authority and the ability of a president to fire the leaders of independent agencies that are meant to be insulated from politics. Today's episode was produced by Rob Zipko, Alex Stern and Mooch Sethi. It was edited by Maria Byrne and Patricia Willans, contains original music by Dan Powell and Pat McCusker and was engineered by Chris Wood. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsberg of Wonderly. Special thanks to Steven Erlanger. That's it for the Daily I'm Rachel Abrams. See you tomorrow.

[Anton Choinovsky]

Foreign.

[Podcast Host]

This podcast is supported by NetSuite.

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Okay business leaders, are you here to play or are you playing to win? If you're in it to win, meet your next MVP NetSuite by Oracle NetSuite is your full business management system in one convenience suite. With NetSuite, you're running your accounting, your finance, your HR, your e commerce, and more, all from your online dashboard. Upgrade your playbook and make the switch to NetSuite, the number one cloud ERP.

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