Summary of "Trump Shocks Europe" Episode from The Daily

Released on February 17, 2025

Introduction

In the episode titled "Trump Shocks Europe," hosts Rachel Abrams and Anton Choinovsky delve into a seismic shift in U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration. This transformation has profound implications for the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, the transatlantic alliance, and the broader geopolitical landscape. The discussion highlights how recent actions by President Donald Trump have altered America's approach to Russia and Ukraine, sparking confusion and concern among long-standing European allies.

Trump's Departure from Biden’s Foreign Policy

The episode begins by contrasting President Trump's current foreign policy maneuvers with those of his predecessor, President Biden. Under Biden, the U.S. strategy focused on isolating Vladimir Putin diplomatically and economically to pressure Russia into ceasing its aggression in Ukraine. This approach emphasized sanctions and a united Western front to prevent Russia from exploiting divisions within the West.

Rachel Abrams (01:28):
"Donald Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine. And this past week he has turned his attention to that conflict, but in a way that has been really scrambling the picture, not just for Ukraine, not just for Russia, but really for all of Europe."

Key Events: Mark Fog's Release and the Trump-Putin Call

A pivotal moment occurred when the Trump administration facilitated the release of Mark Fog, an American schoolteacher held in Russia, through a direct diplomatic intervention. Steve Witkoff, Trump's Middle East envoy, traveled to Moscow and returned Fog on the president's plane—a first since before the war began.

Subsequently, President Trump engaged in a 90-minute phone call with Vladimir Putin, marking the first such dialogue between an American president and the Russian leader since Russia's invasion of Ukraine three years prior.

Anton Choinovsky (01:49):
"The first time that we know of that an American president spoke to the Russian leader since Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago."

Content and Implications of the Trump-Putin Call

During the call, as reported by Trump on social media, both leaders reminisced about their nations' shared history, particularly their alliance in World War II. Trump emphasized their mutual desire to end the war in Ukraine and lauded Putin's use of "common sense"—a campaign motto from Trump's own rhetoric.

Trump's Social Media Statement (04:03):
"In this call, he and Putin both reflected on the great history of our nations and the fact that we fought so successfully together in World War II. ... both agreed that they want to stop the war in Ukraine."

This unilateral approach signaled Trump's intention to negotiate peace independently, bypassing Ukraine and possibly undermining the coordinated efforts previously championed by the Biden administration.

Anton Choinovsky (05:10):
"Which was yet another major departure from the Biden administration's approach. The Biden administration's philosophy that they repeated over and over was nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. And here Trump threw that completely out the window."

Pete Hegseth's Speech and Its Consequences

On the same day as Trump's call with Putin, Pete Hegseth, the new U.S. Defense Secretary, addressed NATO and European defense ministers in Brussels. Hegseth made several significant concessions:

• Territorial Claims: Declared that returning Ukraine to its pre-2014 borders (before Crimea's annexation) was unrealistic.
• NATO Membership: Stated that Ukraine joining NATO was not a realistic outcome of any negotiated settlement.
• U.S. Military Presence: Assured that U.S. troops would not be deployed to Ukraine for peacekeeping missions.

Hegseth's Statement (06:53 - 07:43):
"A durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees... the United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement."
"If there were to be a peace deal, American troops would not be part of any peacekeeping mission."

These remarks were perceived as premature and counterproductive, undermining Europe's ability to secure Ukraine's sovereignty and deterring Russian aggression without robust U.S. support.

Anton Choinovsky (08:07):
"Those concessions that Hegseth made placed Europe in an incredibly tough spot... how do you guarantee Ukraine's security and deter a renewed Russian invasion... if the U.S. isn't involved?"

JD Vance's Munich Security Conference Speech

At the Munich Security Conference, Vice President JD Vance delivered a speech that further complicated the transatlantic relationship. Instead of addressing Trump's foreign policy directly, Vance criticized Europe for internal issues, echoing narratives similar to those of Putin.

JD Vance (13:24):
"The threat that I worry the most about vis a vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China... the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values."
"They intend to shut down social media during times of civil unrest the moment they spot what they've judged to be hateful content."

Vance's remarks painted Europe as internally flawed, diverting attention from external threats like Russia and suggesting that Europe is responsible for its own security challenges. This stance signaled a potential shift away from the U.S. being the steadfast ally Europe has depended on since World War II.

Anton Choinovsky (15:37):
"JD Vance is signaling the possibility that America will no longer be that key ally of Western Europe and the European Union that it was for all those decades."

Reactions from Allies and Russia

The Trump administration's actions elicited varied responses:

• In Russia: There was considerable elation, with the Russian stock market rising over 5%, the ruble strengthening, and pro-Putin politicians lauding the developments as significant victories.

• In the West: European allies were left confused and concerned. The lack of pre-coordination with allies shattered the Biden-era model of a united Western front. Adjustments to this new approach were unclear, especially with upcoming events like the Munich Security Conference.

Rachel Abrams (09:23):
"How was all of this received, this call between Trump and Putin and the Hegseth speech?"
Anton Choinovsky (09:29):
"In Moscow, there was quite a bit of elation... but also shock and confusion in the West."

Implications for Ukraine and Peace Talks

The episode explores the challenging dynamics of negotiating peace in Ukraine without Ukraine's active participation. While the U.S. remains Ukraine's largest ally, Putin views Ukraine's leadership as heavily influenced by Washington, complicating direct negotiations between the U.S. and Russia.

Anton Choinovsky (18:00):
"Zelensky has said that Ukraine will not accept a deal that they were not a part of in negotiating."
"Zelensky and the Ukrainians are saying they need security guarantees... to deter a renewed Russian invasion."

The absence of European involvement, as indicated by Trump's envoy Keith Kellogg's remarks, further complicates potential peace talks. Ukraine's substantial financial contributions to the war effort underscore its vested interest in any settlement.

Ukrainian Public Opinion

Ukrainian public sentiment is a critical factor in the ongoing conflict. The war's protracted duration has led to significant fatigue, with increased openness to compromise despite deep-seated skepticism about Putin's willingness to negotiate in good faith.

Anton Choinovsky (20:12):
"There's intense fatigue with the war there. The war has lasted almost three years now... higher readiness, according to the polls, to some kind of compromise with Russia."

However, the pervasive distrust in Russia and the need for solid security guarantees ensure that any peace deal must align closely with Ukraine's sovereignty and future security needs.

Conclusion: Shift in Transatlantic Alliance and Global Order

The episode concludes by emphasizing the broader implications of the Trump administration's policies. The potential realignment of U.S. support away from Europe disrupts the established transatlantic alliance, potentially enabling Russia to claim a strategic victory if it can secure favorable terms through these new negotiations.

Anton Choinovsky (21:13):
"It really feels like a moment where that world order that we were all used to has started to crumble."
"If Putin, through these peace talks, is able to settle the war more or less on his terms, then that'll be something he presents as a big victory."

The episode underscores the critical juncture at which global alliances find themselves, highlighting the risks of diminished U.S. commitment to Europe and the uncertain path forward for resolving one of the most significant conflicts of our time.

Notable Quotes:

• Trump on Social Media:
  "In this call, he and Putin both reflected on the great history of our nations and the fact that we fought so successfully together in World War II... both agreed that they want to stop the war in Ukraine." (04:03)

• JD Vance at Munich Security Conference:
  "The threat that I worry the most about vis a vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China... the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values." (13:24)

• Anton Choinovsky:
  "Which was yet another major departure from the Biden administration's approach... Trump threw that completely out the window." (05:10)
  "It really feels like a moment where that world order that we were all used to has started to crumble." (21:23)

This episode of The Daily provides a comprehensive analysis of the Trump administration's unprecedented moves in foreign policy, their immediate repercussions, and the long-term ramifications for international relations and global stability.