Podcast Summary: The Daily – "Trump's Bad Week"

Date: November 7, 2025
Host: Michael Barbaro
Guests: Lisa Lerer (National Political Correspondent), Tyler Pager (White House Correspondent), Julie Davis (Congressional Editor)

Episode Overview

This episode examines a series of significant setbacks for President Trump during one tumultuous week in his second term. The discussion, anchored by Michael Barbaro and featuring three top New York Times political journalists, explores Republican losses in key elections, Supreme Court signals against Trump’s signature tariff policy, and a deepening government shutdown threatening to snarl air travel across America.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Fallout from Election Night

(03:00–11:11)

• Democratic Successes: Democrats swept major gubernatorial and mayoral races (New Jersey, Virginia, New York City) and even won surprising victories in lower-profile contests, notably flipping two Georgia utility board seats with massive margins.
• Significance of Coalition Shifts:
  • Lisa Lerer highlighted that Mikie Sherrill, New Jersey’s new Democratic governor, won over 300,000 more votes than her predecessor, and notably peeled away Trump voters, especially among Black and Latino communities.
  • "Trump was, in fact, like, renting. He didn’t own those voters. It’s not a permanent coalition." (Lisa Lerer, 03:49)
• Cost of Living as Central Message:
  • The Democratic strategy homed in on affordability, with campaigns dominated by messages on high rent, groceries, health care, and utilities.
  • "This was the My Rent, Housing, Electricity, Grocery, Healthcare Costs Are All Too Damn High Election." (Lisa Lerer, 05:53)
• Republican Turnout Problem:
  • Republicans, as Lerer and Davis noted, continue to struggle when Trump himself isn’t on the ballot—an enduring issue since 2017.
  • "It shows that the energy is still there and it shows that Republicans haven't solved...their inability to get their voters to turn out when Donald Trump's name is not on the ballot." (Lisa Lerer, 10:16)
• Immigration Fallout:
  • Julie Davis posited that harsh immigration enforcement and disruptive policies may have cost Trump support among Hispanic voters, especially in New Jersey.

2. Supreme Court Skepticism on Tariffs

(12:08–15:53)

• Unusual Supreme Court Pushback:
  • Even Trump’s conservative appointees expressed alarm, with Neil Gorsuch warning against the president’s unilateral power:
  • "If I sign off on this, it's a path toward congressional irrelevance." (summary of Gorsuch’s comments by Michael Barbaro, 12:58)
• Bipartisan Congressional Discomfort:
  • Republican senators joined Democrats in voting to end some of Trump’s tariffs, underscoring growing bipartisan unease.
• Tariffs’ Economic and Political Toll:
  • The panel discussed how tariff backlash was weaponized by Democratic candidates, stoking further voter anxiety over economic "chaos" and affordability.
• Trump’s Attachment to Tariffs:
  • "President Trump loves tariffs...he’s going to be very, very disappointed, to put it mildly, if the Supreme Court overrules his ability to do this." (Tyler Pager, 15:01)
  • Uncertainty surrounds Trump’s next steps if the Supreme Court quashes his tariff approach.

3. The Government Shutdown and Looming Airline Chaos

(18:25–27:36)

• Escalation to Air Travel Disruption:

  • The shutdown’s impact threatens to extend far beyond federal workers and low-income Americans: soon, 40 airports will cut flights by 10%, hitting millions of travelers.
  • "We just got a list of 40 airports that the administration says have to cut flights by 10% each." (Michael Barbaro, 18:25)

• Administration’s Strategy:

  • Officially, reductions aim to relieve stressed air traffic controllers. Politically, however, the administration may be seeking "pain points" that pressure Democrats to negotiate.
  • "The way that shutdowns often end is through political pain points...the president has sort of taken that off the table [with troops], so now it's airline passengers." (Tyler Pager, 19:41)

• Senate Deadlock and the Filibuster:

  • Trump insists on Senate Republicans abolishing the filibuster to end the shutdown, but party opposition is stiff:
  • "John Thune, the majority leader, has said many times he does not have the votes to do that. There are 15 or so Republicans who are dug in against doing so." (Julie Davis, 21:45)
  • Senators resist because ending the filibuster would empower Democrats once they’re back in the majority.

• Democrats’ Calculus:

  • Despite increasing travel disruption and public hardship, Democrats feel emboldened by election wins and polling that assigns blame for the shutdown to Trump and Republicans.
  • "Their message about extending the expiring Obamacare subsidies had resonated...But after Trump...said the elections were lost in part because of the shutdown, that did give Democrats...a few more days here of feeling like they really needed to put up a fight." (Julie Davis, 25:59)
  • Internal divisions remain: Some Dems (especially in purple states) want a deal, others see standing firm as a political win.

4. Will Trump Change Course?

(27:36–31:56)

• Resistance to Recalibration:
  • Tyler Pager recounted an anecdote about Trump’s aversion to discussing inflation during his campaign:
    • "My advisors want me to talk about this, but I'm not all that interested...So here's the speech and basically says it's boring and then moves on." (Tyler Pager, 28:33)
  • Panelists agree Trump remains focused on foreign policy, White House renovations, and personal goals (like winning a Nobel Peace Prize):
    • "I don't imagine a full pivot from Trump on messaging." (Tyler Pager, 29:54)
• Doubling Down vs. Changing Message:
  • "The overarching thing...is not that he's changing so much as that he's doubling down...His message or his pitch [has not] changed at all." (Julie Davis, 30:10)
  • The party’s response echoes the past: "Nothing wrong has been done, no policy change is needed, it's just a messaging change." (Julie Davis, 31:23)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Lisa Lerer on the Democratic resurgence:

  "Trump was, in fact, like, renting. He didn’t own those voters. It’s not a permanent coalition." (03:49)

• On the cost of living focus:

  "This was the My Rent, Housing, Electricity, Grocery, Healthcare Costs Are All Too Damn High Election." (Lisa Lerer, 05:53)

• Tyler Pager on Trump’s style:

  "He likes to sign executive orders. He doesn’t like to defer to other agencies or to Congress." (15:01)

• Julie Davis on the filibuster impasse:

  "There are 15 or so Republicans who are dug in against [ending the filibuster]." (21:45)

• Lisa Lerer on Trump's coalition:

  "The margins were really high...it shows that the energy is still there and it shows that Republicans haven't solved...their inability to get their voters to turn out when Donald Trump's name is not on the ballot." (10:16)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:10–01:37 – Episode setup; Trump’s bad week overview
• 03:00–11:11 – Election results and Democratic gains
• 12:08–15:53 – Supreme Court pushback on tariffs
• 18:25–27:36 – Government shutdown deepens; air travel impact and filibuster debate
• 27:36–31:56 – Analysis: Is Trump likely to change course after setbacks?

Final Thoughts

This episode paints a unified portrait of a presidency in trouble: electoral setbacks, legal and legislative pushback, policy lashes, and a stubborn refusal—or inability—to shift political strategy. Panelists suggest that rather than recalibrating, Trump and his party are likely to double down on their chosen path, setting the stage for further conflict as the shutdown drags on and elections loom. For Democrats, the week brings a burst of confidence, but also complex choices as the costs of a protracted shutdown mount.