Summary of "The Daily" Episode: "Were the Covid Lockdowns Worth It?"

Release Date: March 20, 2025
Host: Michael Barbaro
Guests: Steven Macedo and Francis Lee, Professors at Princeton University

1. Introduction

In this episode of The Daily, host Michael Barbaro engages in a profound discussion with Princeton University professors Steven Macedo and Francis Lee. They delve into their new book, Covid's Wake, which critically examines the United States' response to the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly focusing on the efficacy and repercussions of nationwide lockdowns.

2. Motivation for the Study

Barbaro initiates the conversation by highlighting the professors' decision to rigorously assess the US COVID response.

Michael Barbaro [02:16]:
"You have produced a body of work here that feels important and it feels unique. You're both tenured professors at Princeton University...Why you undertook this project of examining the US Response to Covid in a really rigorous way."

Steven Macedo [02:59]:
"This is meant to be, in part, a book about policy choices, policy deliberation, and in many ways, policy mistakes, perhaps, that were made during COVID."

3. Pre-Pandemic Views on Lockdowns

Before the pandemic erupted, there was significant skepticism within public health circles regarding the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) like lockdowns and mask mandates.

Francis Lee [05:26]:
"There was a lack of good evidence and absence of certainty around the effectiveness of these measures."

4. Shift to Lockdowns

Despite pre-existing skepticism, the US swiftly adopted lockdown measures influenced by reports from organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO) and Imperial College London.

Steven Macedo [13:07]:
"One factor was the fact that China locked down and the World Health Organization sent a team to China and they issued a report...They endorse the strategy without qualification around the world."

Michael Barbaro [14:02]:
"How did China's response become so persuasive, especially given that's a very unique system of government?"

5. Comparing State Responses

The US exhibited a fragmented approach to pandemic management, with states adopting varying levels of restrictions based on political leanings.

Francis Lee [32:38]:
"Initially, there was great unity with 43 states implementing stay-at-home orders. Policy divergence began in the reopening process, with Democratic-leaning states maintaining restrictions longer than Republican-leaning states."

Francis Lee [34:00]:
"By the end of our study, Republican states had 30% more Covid mortality than Democratic states."

6. The Great Barrington Declaration

Seven months into the pandemic, the Great Barrington Declaration emerged as a controversial proposal advocating for focused protection of the vulnerable instead of broad lockdowns.

Steven Macedo [27:11]:
"They were three scientists...who argued that rather than keeping society closed, we should focus protection on the vulnerable parts of the population."

Michael Barbaro [30:05]:
"Francis Collins...called the Great Barrington Declaration...an awful, awful idea."

7. Assessment of Lockdown Effectiveness

The professors argue that lockdowns did not significantly reduce COVID-19 mortality rates and that variations in state policies did not correlate with differences in death rates before the vaccine rollout.

Francis Lee [35:18]:
"Before the vaccines were introduced, states with more restrictions had similar mortality rates to those with fewer restrictions."

Steven Macedo [35:25]:
"Even the optimistic reports...do not show evidence of significantly reduced death."

8. Costs of Lockdowns

The economic and social costs of lockdowns are substantial, encompassing education disruptions, economic hardships, and increased societal inequalities.

Francis Lee [39:30]:
"There was an unprecedented drop in student learning...Chronic absenteeism from school roughly doubled nationwide."

Steven Macedo [40:45]:
"The initial COVID expenditures were equivalent to the New Deal and the 2009 stimulus package combined."

9. Future Recommendations

Macedo and Lee advocate for a more balanced and inclusive approach to pandemic response, emphasizing the need to consider both costs and benefits and to involve a broader range of expertise and public input in decision-making.

Steven Macedo [45:01]:
"We need to consider the costs as well as the hoped-for benefits of policies...and have wider and more tolerant deliberation about these matters."

Francis Lee [44:16]:
"Conspiracy theories are fueled by not asking these questions...a franker conversation...can raise trust in our institutions."

10. Conclusion

The episode underscores the necessity for a comprehensive national reckoning of the COVID-19 response. Macedo and Lee emphasize that understanding both the successes and failures of lockdowns is crucial for preparing more effective and equitable responses to future pandemics.

Francis Lee [42:02]:
"It's extremely painful, but I think we owe it to ourselves to do so."

Michael Barbaro [47:14]:
"It's an invitation to have a reckoning, right?"

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Steven Macedo [02:59]:
  "This is meant to be, in part, a book about policy choices, policy deliberation, and in many ways, policy mistakes, perhaps, that were made during COVID."

• Francis Lee [05:26]:
  "There was a lack of good evidence and absence of certainty around the effectiveness of these measures."

• Steven Macedo [13:07]:
  "They endorse the strategy without qualification around the world."

• Francis Lee [34:00]:
  "By the end of our study, Republican states had 30% more Covid mortality than Democratic states."

• Michael Barbaro [30:05]:
  "Francis Collins...called the Great Barrington Declaration...an awful, awful idea."

• Francis Lee [35:18]:
  "Before the vaccines were introduced, states with more restrictions had similar mortality rates to those with fewer restrictions."

• Francis Lee [39:30]:
  "There was an unprecedented drop in student learning...Chronic absenteeism from school roughly doubled nationwide."

• Steven Macedo [45:01]:
  "We need to consider the costs as well as the hoped-for benefits of policies...and have wider and more tolerant deliberation about these matters."

• Francis Lee [44:16]:
  "Conspiracy theories are fueled by not asking these questions...a franker conversation...can raise trust in our institutions."

• Francis Lee [42:02]:
  "It's extremely painful, but I think we owe it to ourselves to do so."

Final Thoughts

Macedo and Lee's analysis challenges the mainstream narrative surrounding COVID-19 lockdowns, urging a nuanced evaluation of their effectiveness and the profound costs they imposed. Their call for transparency, inclusive deliberation, and balanced policymaking seeks to foster a more resilient and equitable public health strategy for the future.