What Happens in Vegas Could Decide the Election

Summary

Summary of "What Happens in Vegas Could Decide the Election" – The Daily, October 21, 2024

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Introduction

In the October 21, 2024 episode of The Daily, hosted by Michael Barbaro and Sabrina Tavernise, The New York Times delves into the critical role that Nevada, particularly Las Vegas, plays in the upcoming presidential election. With the housing crisis gripping the state, the episode examines how economic distress is influencing voter behavior and potentially determining the election's outcome between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

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Nevada in the Electoral Landscape

Michael Barbaro opens the discussion by highlighting Nevada's significance as a swing state that could tip the balance of the election. He states, “we are at the point in the election where there are so few days left that we're literally counting them down” (00:27). Jenny Medina, the politics reporter, underscores Nevada's pivotal role, noting, “Democrats have really counted on Nevada for their wins for the last 20 years” (01:40). Since George Bush's win in 2004, Nevada has consistently leaned Democratic, symbolizing the party's appeal to a diverse and working-class electorate.

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The Housing Crisis in Las Vegas

The core issue driving Nevada's electoral significance is the housing crisis in Las Vegas. Jenny Medina explains, “the animating issue is the economy” with housing costs at the forefront (04:06). Traditionally affordable, Las Vegas has experienced a dramatic shift post-pandemic. Rents have soared from $700 to $1,200 for a two-bedroom apartment (07:04), making stable housing elusive for many residents.

Despite Las Vegas's reputation as an affordable alternative to California, the combination of increased migration—“150,000 people moved to Nevada from California alone” (05:51)—and rising interest rates has transformed the housing landscape. Jenny Medina observes, “what was once attainable, what used to be very possible, no longer is” (15:13), capturing the disillusionment many face in achieving the American Dream.

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Voters' Experiences: The Story of Armando Garcia

A poignant illustration of the housing crisis's impact is provided through the story of Armando Garcia (07:53), a 26-year-old Las Vegas resident struggling to keep up with escalating rent. Initially optimistic about homeownership, Armando's situation deteriorated during the pandemic, leading to multiple job losses and near eviction. “The dream of having my own home is not a dream I've had since I was 21” (14:28), Armando shares, reflecting a widespread sense of hopelessness among voters.

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The Presidential Race in Nevada

As Nevada becomes a battleground, both candidates focus intensely on economic themes, particularly housing.

• Donald Trump's Strategy: Jenny Medina reports that Trump relentlessly brands Democrats as responsible for the economic woes, aiming to position himself as a champion of the working class and a promoter of party diversity. Trump’s messaging includes “look, I am helping us become the party of the working class” (03:59), appealing to voters feeling neglected by the current administration.

• Kamala Harris’s Approach: In contrast, Harris presents specific solutions to the housing crisis. She pledges to “cut the red tape and work with the private sector to build 3 million new homes” (19:20) and offers “first-time home buyers with $25,000 down payment assistance” (20:19). These concrete proposals aim to directly address the affordability issues plaguing voters.

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Voter Responses and Categories

Jenny Medina categorizes Nevada's persuadable voters into three distinct groups:

1. Progressives Considering Third-Party Candidates: Long-time Democrats feeling abandoned by their party are open to alternatives. Armando Garcia reveals his disillusionment: “I'd like to vote for the Green Party” (22:37), reflecting a desire for systemic change beyond the traditional two-party system.

2. Trump Turners: These voters, often previously supportive of Democrats like Obama, now gravitate towards Trump due to perceived unmet promises. For example, Kenya, a small business owner, believes Trump can better address her financial struggles: “maybe Trump is the better businessman who can make her bottom line feel better” (23:25).

3. Abstainers/Non-Voters: A growing number of voters are choosing not to participate as a form of protest. One participant states, “I don't see anything coming out for us” (26:12), embodying a profound cynicism and frustration with the political system that drives disengagement.

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Analysis of Voter Cynicism and Implications

The episode delves into the underlying cynicism permeating Nevada's electorate. Jenny Medina explains, “there is just a really profound sense of cynicism that is essentially defining the electorate” (27:31). This widespread distrust in governmental solutions has eroded faith in the Democratic Party, traditionally seen as the provider of institutional support. Michael Barbaro adds that such voters are inclined to distrust the Democratic brand, making them more susceptible to Trump's anti-establishment rhetoric.

Jenny Medina further connects this local phenomenon to a national trend, highlighting that “Latino voters voicing frustration over the Democratic Party, of working class voters voicing frustration over the Democratic Party” (29:12). This sentiment suggests that if cynicism continues to dominate voter attitudes, it could significantly bolster Trump’s chances of winning Nevada and, by extension, influencing the broader election results.

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Conclusion and National Context

As the episode concludes, it references a Washington Post analysis indicating that higher home prices are disproportionately impacting voters in seven key swing states, including Nevada (31:09). This economic strain is a pivotal factor shaping voter behavior and preferences, potentially determining the 2024 presidential outcome. The housing crisis not only affects individual livelihoods but also reshapes political allegiances, underscoring the profound connection between economic stability and electoral politics.

Michael Barbaro summarizes the situation by emphasizing the critical nature of Nevada's voters, whose experiences and frustrations are emblematic of larger national issues that could sway the election in favor of Donald Trump.

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Notable Quotes

• Michael Barbaro: “We're at the point in the election where there are so few days left that we're literally counting them down” (00:27).
• Jenny Medina: “Democrats have really counted on Nevada for their wins for the last 20 years” (01:40).
• Armando Garcia: “The dream of having my own home is not a dream I've had since I was 21” (14:28).
• Jenny Medina: “there is just a really profound sense of cynicism that is essentially defining the electorate” (27:31).

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This comprehensive examination of Nevada's electoral dynamics highlights how economic factors, particularly the housing crisis, are reshaping voter priorities and allegiances, ultimately playing a decisive role in the 2024 presidential election.

Transcript

[Narrator]

At Schwab, how you invest is your choice, not theirs. That's why when it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices. You can invest and trade on your own. Plus get advice and more comprehensive wealth solutions to help meet your unique needs. With award winning service, low costs and transparent advice, you can manage your wealth your way at Schwab. Visit schwab.com to learn more from the New York Times.

[Michael Barbaro]

I'm Michael Barro. This is the Daily for millions of Americans, the housing crisis defines the US Economy. In the swing state of Nevada, it could soon define the election. My colleagues, politics reporter Jenny Medina and Daily producers Carlos Prieto and Claire Tennesketter traveled there to understand what happens when the promise of the American dream slips away. It's Monday, October 21st. So we are at the point in the election where there are so few days left that we're literally counting them down. And as we do that, we are closing in here on the show on the issues that really seem to be driving and defining the election in the key swing states that will ultimately determine whether the Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the White House. And Jenny, you have been reporting out of Nevada. So just to begin with, put that state into the broader electoral picture for us.

[Jenny Medina]

So we're in a coin flip election nationally and Nevada really is a coin flip state at this point. Either party could win by just the slimmest of margins. And that's interesting because Democrats have really counted on Nevada for their wins for the last 20 years. The last Republican to win was George Bush in 2004. And when Obama won in 2008, Nevada was a major victory for Democrats and.

[Michael Barbaro]

Has remained ever since. Basically Democrats have never lost it since 04.

[Jenny Medina]

Right. And a lot of Democrats thought that that heralded this future for them, that they were the party of diversity, that they were the party of the working class. And in a lot of ways, no state epitomize that more than Nevada where the overwhelming majority of voters do not have a college degree. There's a very large Hispanic population and there's also a really significant Asian and black population. And so for Democrats, it's a state that matters not only for its six electoral votes, but maybe even more so for its symbolism. And it's also a place that Democrats worry about every single cycle because they keep eking out these wins, but by an increasingly shrinking margin.

[Michael Barbaro]

Okay. And what does Nevada mean to Republicans in this moment?

[Jenny Medina]

Well, I think for Republicans it's a lot of the same thing. There is this symbolism that it represents for them. Trump has spent a lot of time in Nevada both this year and in the 2020 cycle, and he has a lot of devotees there. And there's also this idea that's been percolating and we've seen for four years now of Trump making inroads, working class voters who are not white. Trump did well with many of these voters in 2020 and might do even better this time around. And so for Trump, if he wins this prize of Nevada, he'll be able to say, look, I am helping us become the party of the working class. I am helping us become a more diverse party. You all criticize me for these things that I say and accuse me of being racist, but I'm actually getting more of these voters who you thought were never possible.

[Michael Barbaro]

And based on the time that you've spent there, what is the animating issue for voters in Nevada this year?

[Jenny Medina]

Without question, the animating issue is the economy. This is a place that has always had a lot of boom and bust cycles, but Covid completely obliterated the Las Vegas economy. It really hurt a lot of people, and we're still seeing the effects of that. And when we talk about the economy now, what voters say first is housing, Just how much it costs to live there.

[Michael Barbaro]

Right. That doesn't necessarily surprise me because we've talked so much on the show about the nationwide housing crunch. And put simply, it's that there is not enough housing and the housing that exists is too expensive. What exactly is the picture of the housing problem in Vegas? I tend to think of it as a place actually with a tremendous amount of housing. Right.

[Jenny Medina]

Traditionally, Vegas has been exactly that. The thing to know about Las Vegas is that it was this sprawling place where people flock to for their little slice of the American dream.

[Narrator]

It's really an exciting time for all of us here in the Valley because of all those new developments, especially for home buyers.

[Jenny Medina]

You can even see with this drone, it was a big expanse of desert. There were always new houses being built. Clark county coming in at number two on the list of the hottest zip codes across the country. And people could afford those houses without having a huge salary. As long as you get on the right websites and you find the right postings, you can find housing pretty much within a week. But during and after the pandemic, that really started to shift. A home buying frenzy happening now in Las Vegas. Local realtors say the pandemic has dramatically changed the local housing market. You had a lot of people moving in to Las Vegas.

[Michael Barbaro]

It's a Gorgeous area.

[Jenny Medina]

Everybody seems nice. And it's a lot cheaper to live here than California. 150,000 people moved to Nevada from California alone.

[Michael Barbaro]

Fascinating. Housing prices in Las Vegas continued to skyrocket.

[Jenny Medina]

So you had rents going up, interest rates going up. And all of a sudden this place that was once affordable started to feel just like California, like the very places people were trying to leave.

[Michael Barbaro]

And just how expensive does housing become in the state?

[Jenny Medina]

So when we're talking about the state, what we're really focusing on is Clark County, Vegas and all the surrounding suburbs. 70% of the population of Nevada lives in Clark County. We're just trying to talk to people about their business and the economy in Las Vegas. Do you mind if we ask you a couple questions? I've spent a lot of time over the last year talking with voters in Clark county. And a couple of weeks ago I went back with Daily producers Carles Prieto and Claire Tenesquedart to hear from voters about what the housing crisis has looked like. Do you mind if we ask you a couple questions?

[Michael Barbaro]

And what did you find? Two bedroom.

[Jenny Medina]

It is $1,200 a month.

[Michael Barbaro]

So just last year I was paying 700.

[Jenny Medina]

Basically everybody that you talk with will tell you a story about how much their rent has increased. Wow. And they'll explain that compared to what they were paying in 2019 or even 2021, their rent has effectively doubled or even tripled today. Do you remember what your rent, what they wanted to increase it to almost three grand.

[Armando Garcia]

I think it had been around 1,300.

[Jenny Medina]

Remember five years ago you could rent a house, a house for 725. Okay. And now for 1,200, all you can get is in a studio. People talk about signing six month leases and watching their rent go up at least $100 every six months.

[Michael Barbaro]

So how much of your income goes.

[Armando Garcia]

To bills and rent specifically?

[Jenny Medina]

Basically all of it. Literally all of it. People talk about looking for houses for months or even years on end and not being able to afford the down payment. Everybody has that story of housing woe. Actually when I got over here I was very young, so I was able to work hard with my ex husband and buy a house. And now it's like you can't do that. So we ended up visiting somebody who really typifies what a lot of people are going through in Las Vegas who feels like that dream of Las Vegas has not materialized for him. It has not been a bridge to the middle class.

[Michael Barbaro]

Hi. Hello.

[Jenny Medina]

Hi, how are you? Jenny.

[Armando Garcia]

Nice to meet you.

[Jenny Medina]

How Are you good? How are you? Thank you so much. His name is Armando Garcia. He's 26 years old, and we met him at the rental home he shares with his partner, two roommates, and a few pets. We sat down in his living room, which is a very simple space. There's not a lot of decorations or furniture around. There's just a Dungeons and Dragons game on the coffee table. And remind me again, I know you told me, but I can't recall. How much do you pay for rent here? Total?

[Armando Garcia]

The base rent is 2,000, and then water and trash can fluctuate from like 200 to $400. And then electricity and gas, we pay separately from our rent, and that fluctuates even more.

[Jenny Medina]

And tell me a little bit about how hard it is or isn't to make rent.

[Armando Garcia]

It's been difficult. Currently at my job, I work $20 an hour plus commission. And my other roommates also work like $16 an hour to $20 an hour. One of them works salary. And we're still, like, struggling to keep up with our rent.

[Jenny Medina]

And he started telling us about his life and this difficult housing saga he's been going through.

[Armando Garcia]

My dad's from Acapulco, and my mom's from Mexico.

[Jenny Medina]

Armando's parents are both from Mexico. They moved to San Diego, where he was born.

[Armando Garcia]

My family moved to Las Vegas in the summer of 2005. My uncle was opening up a sandwich shop, and he wanted my dad to help with the business. So we moved here.

[Jenny Medina]

And when they first got there, Armando remembers it being a lot more difficult than his parents had hoped or expected it would be.

[Armando Garcia]

My dad was working as a cook. And then I remember my parents started.

[Jenny Medina]

Cleaning banks at night because they worked multiple jobs. And they were also constantly struggling to figure out how to pay the rent. But they kept encouraging him to try to do what they couldn't.

[Armando Garcia]

And my parents were like, you should try to buy a house.

[Jenny Medina]

They kept saying, even from the time he was a teenager, Armando, buy a home. Buy a home. You can do it. Buy a home.

[Michael Barbaro]

Mm.

[Armando Garcia]

And then eventually I moved out.

[Jenny Medina]

And then he decides to move out of his parents house and in with roommates.

[Armando Garcia]

And then I started working at the call center, which was $16 an hour.

[Jenny Medina]

So it was like he has what he describes as a pretty decent paying.

[Armando Garcia]

Job that was insane.

[Jenny Medina]

And he feels like it's pretty stable.

[Armando Garcia]

I had the ability to make a.

[Jenny Medina]

Savings, and he thinks he might be able to put enough money away to actually be able to do what his parents keep encouraging him to do to buy a home.

[Armando Garcia]

But then Covid happened.

[Jenny Medina]

But then the pandemic comes. A pizza delivery job, and he shuffles.

[Armando Garcia]

Through a couple of jobs and the apartment. They increase the rent every single month.

[Jenny Medina]

And at the same time, his rent keeps going up higher and higher each month, and the bills feel further and further out of reach.

[Armando Garcia]

And then I had to, like, use my credit cards more so that I would have cash.

[Jenny Medina]

So he's living paycheck to paycheck and racking up debt.

[Armando Garcia]

So I got to the point where I was just like, I'm not paying my credit cards. I'm just keeping the money that I have to pay for food and rent because.

[Jenny Medina]

And this keeps going on for a while. Eventually, he and his roommates move from the apartment to a house to save a little bit of money, but he's still barely making ends meet. And then earlier this year, things change really quickly, and a lot starts to unravel.

[Armando Garcia]

Three of us had lost our jobs, and we all had to find jobs within, like, two weeks.

[Jenny Medina]

He loses a job and is without a paycheck for two weeks. And for him and for his roommates, that's really catastrophic. They fell behind on rent very quickly.

[Armando Garcia]

They took us to eviction court.

[Jenny Medina]

Their landlord took them to eviction court. They come back with an eviction order.

[Armando Garcia]

And so then we kind of just had, like, a week, and we were just.

[Jenny Medina]

And they're all really preparing to have to leave the home, so we put.

[Armando Garcia]

Everything in storage, and it's really scary for them.

[Jenny Medina]

He tried to comfort one of his roommates, who was just really freaked out and kind of panicking, thinking that she might be either couch surfing or living in her car.

[Armando Garcia]

I remember, like, every day for two weeks, I had to, like, hold her while she cried. Just. She could not imagine what a future would look like where we were homeless. And it ended up being where I had to borrow $1,000 from my mom, $1,000 from my uncle to make three months of rent for a month.

[Jenny Medina]

So they barely escape eviction. And really, the only way they manage to do so is because Armando cobbles together some small loans from two different family members. But Armando's really shaken. Like, he's gone from thinking a few years ago that it was possible for him to buy a house to now realizing that he's in just as a precarious position or an even more precarious position than his parents were ever in.

[Michael Barbaro]

And to the degree that the American dream has always been grounded in this idea that. That you will do Better than your parents. This has to be exceptionally disillusioning.

[Jenny Medina]

Yes. And that dream that he had inherited from his parents of buying a house has completely vanished. Do you want to move out to your own place with your partner at some point? Is that a dream?

[Armando Garcia]

Mmm, it'd be nice. But I think the dream of having my own home is not a dream I've had since I was 21.

[Jenny Medina]

Why not?

[Armando Garcia]

Because I think it just feels too bold to have that dream. I could dream, and in the dream, hypothetically, like, we're stable enough to own it, but like, what always kind of, like, dampens the daydream, is that, to me now, it just feels unrealistic. It doesn't feel like I can, like, daydream about it for very long, because it just feels like I have realism around me all the time.

[Jenny Medina]

And in a lot of ways, his story might sound extreme, but it's really not that unique. We spoke to a local real estate agent in Vegas who grew up there and had seen all of this up close. And he said that for most people who work in Las Vegas without a college degree, what used to be attainable, what used to be very possible, no longer is. You just can't get what your parents might have been able to get 10 or 20 years ago. This is what is infuriating many people who live in Las Vegas and have lived here for years. There are people all over Las Vegas and other parts of the country who are really struggling with this basic idea of making rent or finding a place to live for good. Even parents who I speak with who own a home worry constantly that their kids won't have a place to live. It's a really basic thing that we often take for granted, but that many people are now struggling with more than before. And so for those people, they're looking at this presidential election through the lens of a housing crisis. They're not worried about anything else to the degree that they are worried about finding a place to live comfortably and stably. And so what they want to know is, how can you address this? Are you going to do anything to change my basic experience of living in America? Can you possibly restore my faith in the American dream, even? Because I think when you don't have a stable place to live, it really shatters your faith in that. It really makes you question what the government is doing and what kind of safety and stability there is in this country. And that's a real challenge that Donald Trump and Kamala Harris face in making their case to voters right now. They're trying to navigate this level of frustration and distrust in two very different ways.

[Michael Barbaro]

We'll be right back.

[Narrator]

At Schwab, how you invest is your choice, not theirs. That's why when it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices. You can invest and trade on your own. Plus get advice and more comprehensive wealth solutions to help meet your unique needs. With award winning service, low costs and transparent advice, you can manage your wealth your way at Schwab. Visit schwab.com to learn more.

[Michael Barbaro]

Hey everyone, it's Ested Herndon, political reporter for the New York Times. I think that journalism that is accurate and fair is a bedrock of democracy. It's how folks make informed decisions. It's how we learn things that other people, many times people in power, are trying to hide. And when you are taking the idea of fairness seriously, that means that you have made clear to both sides of the aisle what you intend to report. You have made sure it's accurate and that it lives up to the standards of independence that the New York Times believes in. It's not just people can trust what we're saying has been vetted. It's that we have gone through that process without trying to calibrate or dilute that information to appease one side or the other. If you want to support the work that we do, you can subscribe to the New york [e-mail] subscribe so Jenny, given the dynamics that you just outlined, how has the presidential race, the campaign played out in Nevada?

[Jenny Medina]

So there is absolutely no ignoring the presidential campaign in Nevada.

[Michael Barbaro]

Their bidenomics led to the highest inflation in 40 years.

[Jenny Medina]

Everywhere you go, any restaurant you're in where there is a TV on, you see an ad from one candidate or another. Extremists are attacking abortion rights, taking away Kamala for they them. President Trump is for you. There are billboards everywhere, every radio station.

[Michael Barbaro]

We need Kamala Harris.

[Jenny Medina]

You're going to be fed some sort of political I'm Donald J. Trump and I approve this message. And the candidates have come in and out of the state multiple times. Good evening Nevada. Hello Las Vegas. Hello Las Vegas. And every single time they come they're there to talk about the economy. We had the greatest economy in history. And for Donald Trump he has really hammered home the message that this is Democrats fault. People are saying to themselves were we.

[Michael Barbaro]

Better off four years ago or are we better off now?

[Jenny Medina]

And it wasn't even close that any economic pain you are feeling is because something that Democrats did or did not do, we Also need to build more housing in America. And Harris, for her part, has been a little bit more specific. So we will cut the red tape and work with the private sector to build 3 million new homes. She has gone out there and given speeches a couple of times talking about how much more housing needs to be built, first time home buyers with $25,000 down payment assistance, about tax credits, and more specific ideas of how she can try to help change the situation.

[Michael Barbaro]

So Harris is more explicitly talking about housing in a state where, based on your reporting, housing is the driving issue. Is that disparity in the two candidates focus on housing mattering and how are voters generally responding to these two competing messages?

[Jenny Medina]

So, of course, like in every other state, there are people who are just viewing this in the same way they always have in a partisan lens. There are the people who voted for Trump and we'll stick with him. Again, there are people who voted for Biden and are sticking with Harris. But there's a small group of people who are not really tuning into this until right now who are undecided. And they are the people who will matter the most on election Day. Right.

[Michael Barbaro]

The coveted persuadable voter.

[Jenny Medina]

Absolutely, the persuadable voter. And in Las Vegas, that typically means a non college educated voter, most likely black or Latino, and most likely living paycheck to paycheck. And after talking to dozens of these voters in the last several weeks, I think about them as in three different buckets.

[Michael Barbaro]

And what are those buckets?

[Jenny Medina]

The first group of those voters are people who describe themselves as progressives who have been long time committed Democrats, but now feel like the party has abandoned them and are considering voting for some kind of third party candidate by writing somebody in. And I think Armando, who couldn't afford his rent anymore, he describes himself in just that way. Are you voting in this year's election?

[Armando Garcia]

I am.

[Jenny Medina]

Can I ask you about who you plan to vote for and why?

[Armando Garcia]

Uh, it's difficult. I'd like to vote for the Green Party.

[Jenny Medina]

Armando says there's a tiny chance he might change his mind and vote for Harris.

[Armando Garcia]

Like a 2% chance.

[Jenny Medina]

But if the election were today, he would write in Jill Stein or somebody else and take a very ideologically committed vote and sort of hope for some kind of political revolution, so to speak.

[Michael Barbaro]

Hmm. These are voters who it seems, are ready to cast a protest vote against the entire system, Democratic and Republican.

[Jenny Medina]

And that's not really that surprising in Nevada. Remember, this is where Bernie Sanders won in the 2020 Democratic caucus. But it's Also the smallest group of these voters.

[Michael Barbaro]

What is the second group?

[Jenny Medina]

The second group is what you might think of as Trump Turners. These are mostly people who voted for Obama in the past, but felt like his promises of hope and change and the Democratic promise of hope and change has basically been empty for them. There's a lot of this sense of what we face now is worse. We are worse off, we're going in the wrong direction, and maybe we should just go back to what we had under the Trump administration. Do you mind if I ask you a couple questions? That's okay, but I just speak so much English. It's fine. If you want to tell me, answer me in Spanish. That's fine, too. For example, we met a woman named Kenya who was selling herbal supplements. Para Bay Paravaid. And she voted for Joe Biden in 2020. But she's seen her family struggle financially. She says a lot of her family members have been looking for a home for a while and just can't afford to buy one. And she thinks, look, maybe Trump is the better businessman who can make her bottom line feel better. Then we went to a baseball field where I had been just a month before, and at that time had spoken to a lot of voters who were undecided. But this time, I was surprised by how many people there were very enthusiastically voting for Trump.

[Michael Barbaro]

I'm a Trump supporter.

[Jenny Medina]

What do you all like about him? What do you see?

[Michael Barbaro]

He's a businessman. You have to run our country like a business.

[Jenny Medina]

So who are you voting for in the fall? Probably Trump.

[Armando Garcia]

I'm voting for Trump.

[Jenny Medina]

Everybody hates me when I say this, but I would personally vote for Trump.

[Michael Barbaro]

Yeah.

[Jenny Medina]

Can I ask you who you're voting for?

[Michael Barbaro]

Trump.

[Jenny Medina]

You're voting for Trump? Yes. Okay.

[Michael Barbaro]

I prefer Trump over what we have.

[Jenny Medina]

Okay.

[Michael Barbaro]

Basically, they want change. And in Trump's message of a broken system that he says he will repair, sounds like they're finding that change.

[Jenny Medina]

Right? Exactly.

[Michael Barbaro]

And, Jenny, what's the third group of these persuadable voters?

[Jenny Medina]

So the third group of voters are kind of the most interesting to me. Maria, can I ask you a little bit about politics? Will you vote in November? I won't this time.

[Michael Barbaro]

I didn't plan on voting, really, to.

[Jenny Medina]

Be honest with you. I don't think I will vote. You don't think you will vote? No. And those are people who have voted in the past or who at least think about voting. I'm tired of it all, you know, I'm just burnt out. But say this time they are just not Going to vote at all. I am Democrat.

[Michael Barbaro]

The same garbage, different package. Democrats and Republicans, they don't do nothing.

[Jenny Medina]

No more for us. We met those people at a swap meet. We met them at grocery stores. I felt like it.

[Michael Barbaro]

No matter who we vote for, they going to choose who they want to choose.

[Jenny Medina]

To be honest, that just happened and I've met them again and again over months. Going to Nevada, I just promised things I will say. It's not that I expect like fix the world like in one night or one day, but it's like I don't see anything, I don't see nothing coming out for us. These are people who have voted for Democrats in the past but feel like the system just isn't working and just don't see the point anymore. Just don't feel like there's any reason to do what they've done in the past. And sitting out is their form of protest.

[Michael Barbaro]

A different form of protest than Armando, for example?

[Jenny Medina]

Right, A different form of protest. They just feel frustrated and want to voice this frustration. Is it fair to say that you're not voting because you're angry? No, I'm not angry. I'm disappointed. I'm disappointed, yeah. Angry. No, I'm not angry.

[Michael Barbaro]

I mean, Jenny, what you're really describing here in all of these encounters you had with voters in Nevada is a profound cynicism, right. And it feels deeply connected to their eroding economic circumstances, primarily housing, but it sounds like not just housing. And by and large what you're finding would seem to generally cut against the Democrats.

[Jenny Medina]

Yes, absolutely. I think what I have found over the last several months in Nevada, over this entire year is just a really profound sense of cynicism that is essentially defining the electorate. There. There is much anger over the economy and so much a feeling of broken promises. People feel very, very frustrated and very, very hopeless and it hurts people's day to day lives. What they thought Vegas was supposed to mean for them, what Vegas meant to their families, what Vegas meant for the possibilities, all seems to have evaporated and they lay that fairly or not, at the feet of Democrats.

[Michael Barbaro]

There's a case to be made that rather than this being a Biden Harris Democratic Party problem just based on the fact that they are the incumbent administration, that this cynicism is something that Democrats are struggling with and have been struggling with for a really long time because the Democratic Party does see itself as the party of institutional solutions, you know, going all the way back to the New Deal up through Obamacare. If you are a cynical voter inclined to distrust the government as the vehicle for solving your problem, then the Democratic brand is one you're very likely to be wary of. It's a whole lot easier to run against the system. And who has better mounted a campaign against the system than Donald Trump?

[Jenny Medina]

Right. And I think it's important to remember that many of these voters once believed in that system. They really believed that government. In fact, they might still believe that government was supposed to have a positive impact in their lives, but they don't feel like it has. That's the promise that they feel is broken. That's what's leading them to their cynicism. You say that government is supposed to work for me, and I don't actually see that coming true. You say that government is supposed to improve my life and my children's life. And in fact, I feel like my children are going to be worse off than I am. That sort of overwhelming feeling of things aren't going to get better. Things aren't getting better. And this sort of feeling of giving up, of thinking I keep trying and trying and it's not getting better. So what do I have to lose by just blowing up the system? And in Nevada, working class voters, voters without a college degree, and Latino voters are some of the fastest growing segments of voters overall. And if those voters have become so cynical that they decide to blow up the system, it could mean that Trump wins the state. And that's completely emblematic of what we see going on nationally, of Latino voters voicing frustration over the Democratic Party, of working class voters voicing frustration over the Democratic Party, of this feeling that the American dream might be out of reach for people that once really had a possibility. And if that cynicism becomes a defining feature of this year's election, it will be a big part of what could hand the White House to Donald Trump.

[Michael Barbaro]

Well, Jenny, thank you very much.

[Jenny Medina]

Thank you.

[Michael Barbaro]

On Sunday night, a new analysis showed that higher home prices have disproportionately affected Americans in the seven swing states most likely to determine the outcome of the election. The analysis from the Washington Post found that a majority of voters across those seven states, including Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, face outsized burdens from rising home costs. We'll be right back.

[Narrator]

With Schwab. Investing themes. It's easy to invest in ideas you believe in, like online music and videos, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles and more. Schwab's research process uncovers emerging trends. Then their technology curates relevant stocks into themes. Choose from over 40 themes. Buy all the stocks in a theme as is or customized to better fit your investing goals. All in a few clicks. Schwab Investing Themes is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation of any stock or investment strategy. Learn [e-mail] thematic investing.

[Jenny Medina]

It'S Melissa Clark from New York Times Cooking and I'm in the kitchen with some of our team. Nikita Richardson what are you making for Thanksgiving this year? From our recipes, I'm making the cheesy Hasselback Potato Gratin featuring layers of thinly cut potatoes. Very easy, but it's a real showstopper. Bon Vreeland, give us your take. Let me tell you that caramel apple.

[Michael Barbaro]

Pie, it's so delicious. It's like a candy bar.

[Jenny Medina]

I had a bite.

[Armando Garcia]

It's got this shortbread like crust so.

[Michael Barbaro]

You don't have to roll out pie dough.

[Jenny Medina]

You can find the Thanksgiving recipes you [e-mail] thanksgiving here's what else you need.

[Michael Barbaro]

To Another day over the weekend, any hope that the death of Hamas's leader might help end the region's war quickly evaporated in Israel, a drone from Lebanon crashed near the private residence of Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, raising the possibility that Hezbollah sought to target him. In Lebanon, Israel claimed its airstrikes had killed three Hezbollah commanders. And in Gaza, Palestinian authorities said that a major Israeli airstrike had killed or wounded dozens of people. And North Carolina has become the second battleground state to set a record on the first day of early voting. Residents of the state cast more than 350,000 ballots on Thursday and another 150,000 on Friday. Earlier last week, first day voting records were also shattered in Georgia. Today's episode was produced by Carlos Prieto, Claire Tenes and Rob Zipco. It was edited by M.J. davis Lynn, Ben Calhoun and Brendan Klinkenberg. Contains a original music by Marion Lozano, Elishiba Etoupe, Pat McCusker and Dan Powell and was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Landsfurk of Wonderly. That's it for the Daily I'm Michael Barbara. See you tomorrow.

[Narrator]

With Schwab Investing Themes, it's easy to invest in ideas you believe in, like online music and videos, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and more. Schwab's research process uncovers emerging trends, then their technology curates relevant stocks into themes. Choose from over 40 themes, buy all the stocks in a theme as is, or customize to better fit your investing goals, all in a few clicks. Schwab Investing Themes is not intended to be investment advice or a recommendation of any stock or investment strategy. Learn [e-mail] thematic investing.