The Daily: What to Expect From Trump’s New Trade Drama Release Date: July 10, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of The Daily, hosted by Natalie Kitroeff from The New York Times, the focus is on President Donald Trump's resurgence of aggressive trade tariffs, rekindling fears of a global trade war. Joining Natalie are seasoned journalists Ana Swanson, Maggie Haberman, and Ben Castleman, who delve into the implications of Trump's latest trade maneuvers, the current economic landscape, and the potential long-term effects on both the U.S. and global economies.

Current State of Trump's Trade Policies

Natalie Kitroeff sets the stage by recounting the timeline of Trump’s trade policies over the past 90 days. Initially, Trump unleashed a broad set of tariffs that led to significant market turmoil, including a stock market plunge and a temporary economic downturn. In response to the backlash, he paused the tariffs, allowing the market to recover and giving the illusion of a hiatus in the trade war.

However, as Ana Swanson explains at [02:41], the pause was superficial:

“It is on. Of course, they're overshadowed by what the President is threatening to put in place just in a matter of a few weeks.”

The effective average tariff rate has surged to 17.6%, the highest since 1934.

Analysis of Recent Trade Deals

Despite the threats, only limited trade deals have been finalized. Ana Swanson highlights two significant agreements:

1. United Kingdom Framework Deal ([04:33]):

   • Focused on lowering tariffs on specific products.
   • Emphasized continued dialogue without substantial commitments.

2. Vietnam Agreement ([04:51]):

   • Lowered tariffs on certain Vietnamese products to 20%.
   • Imposed higher tariffs on products with Chinese content.
   • Lacks transparency, with no detailed public documentation available.

Maggie Haberman critiques the limited success of these deals:

“It's too early to say that this isn't working, you know, but it certainly is not the success that Trump believed it would be.” ([05:55])

Impact on U.S. Economy and Tariff Revenue

The administration's dual objectives are to stimulate domestic manufacturing and generate revenue through tariffs.

Ben Castleman discusses the financial aspect:

“We're bringing in tariff revenue at record setting rates... it's about $50 billion of additional tariff revenue.” ([09:09])

However, this revenue is effectively paid by American importers, which translates to higher costs for businesses and consumers.

Natalie questions whether the anticipated price hikes have materialized. Ben Castleman responds:

“Overall inflation has continued to cool... Some of that is picking up, but not in a sort of a crazy way.” ([10:31])

Despite high tariffs, consumer prices haven't surged as expected, partly because companies absorbed the costs or delayed price adjustments.

Challenges in Restoring Manufacturing

One of Trump's key goals is repatriating manufacturing jobs. Ana Swanson provides a sobering update:

“Company spending on new manufacturing facilities has kind of trended downward... we've seen a loss in manufacturing jobs.” ([13:57])

Ben Castleman adds that the unpredictable nature of tariffs hampers long-term investment decisions:

“These policies as they've actually been implemented is not likely to yield that result.” ([15:18])

Maggie Haberman echoes this sentiment, emphasizing the impracticality of reversing complex global supply chains on short notice.

Recession Fears and Economic Sentiment

Initially, there were widespread fears that Trump's tariffs would trigger a recession. However, Ben Castleman observes that the economic impact has been less severe than anticipated:

“We have not seen this sort of big jump in consumer prices... Instead what we see is this sort of gradual impact.” ([10:27])

Despite high tariff rates, the economy remains relatively stable, with inflation cooling and consumer spending continuing. However, Maggie Haberman notes a decline in consumer confidence regarding the economy:

“...his numbers on the economy have changed. Like people have kind of soured on him in that respect.” ([20:53])

Trump's Use of Power and Implications for Trade Negotiations

Trump's approach to trade negotiations is characterized by shifting deadlines and inconsistent policies. Maggie Haberman explains:

“...he tends to buy himself more time to jump from one lily pad to the next.” ([05:55])

This unpredictability undermines confidence among foreign leaders and businesses, making it difficult to achieve meaningful trade agreements. Additionally, Ben Castleman points out that while Trump can dictate tariff policies, he cannot control the economic outcomes:

“He can't rewrite the rules of economics... There's going to be a lot of hedging of bets.” ([27:36])

China as a Central Focus

China remains at the heart of Trump's trade aggression. Ana Swanson confirms:

“...the subtext of a lot of these global trade negotiations has been about China.” ([23:33])

Efforts are being made to isolate China by involving other nations in trade agreements that target Chinese products, aiming to close loopholes and counteract China’s economic influence.

Market Reactions and Future Outlook

So far, the markets have not reacted violently to the latest tariff threats, unlike the initial April reactions. Ben Castleman suggests that investors might be anticipating further delays or extensions of the tariffs:

“We're not seeing the kind of violent reaction that we saw back in April.” ([25:14])

However, concerns persist in bond markets regarding increased debt due to tariffs and related fiscal policies.

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a consensus among the panelists that while Trump's tariff policies aim to reshape global trade and stimulate domestic manufacturing, the immediate economic impacts have been mitigated by various factors, including corporate absorption of costs and delayed price adjustments. However, the long-term effects remain uncertain, with significant challenges in achieving meaningful trade deals and rebuilding manufacturing sectors. The unpredictability of Trump's approach continues to pose risks, potentially leading to economic inefficiencies and strained international relations.

Key Takeaways:

• Tariffs are active and increasing, with the U.S. maintaining the highest average tariff rate since 1934.
• Limited trade deals have been achieved, with significant uncertainty surrounding their efficacy.
• Economic impacts so far have been muted in terms of inflation, but long-term effects on manufacturing and consumer costs remain unclear.
• Market reactions have been relatively calm, but future tariff implementations could trigger more significant economic responses.
• China remains a primary target in Trump's trade strategy, with efforts to involve other nations in counteracting Chinese economic practices.
• Trump's unpredictable policy shifts hinder confidence among foreign partners and domestic businesses, potentially leading to broader economic inefficiencies.

As the situation evolves, the next few months will be critical in determining the true impact of Trump's renewed trade policies on the U.S. and the global economy.

This summary captures the essential discussions and insights from the episode "What to Expect From Trump’s New Trade Drama," providing a comprehensive overview for those who have not listened to the full podcast.