Why Are Grocery Store Prices So High

Summary

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The Daily – July 13, 2026

Why Are Grocery Store Prices So High?

Host: Natalie Kitroeff
Reporters: Jessica Chung
Guest: Tyler Culp, General Manager at East End Food Co-op (Pittsburgh)

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Overview

This episode delves into the persistent rise in grocery store prices in the United States, examining why costs have soared, how store managers and shoppers alike are coping, and what global and local factors are at play. Through on-the-ground reporting at a Pittsburgh food co-op, the episode demystifies the economic and supply chain forces driving up costs, explores the impact on households, and compares the experiences at a small cooperative and a big-box discount grocer.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Drivers of Rising Grocery Prices

• Lingering Effects of COVID-19: Initial supply shortages and inflation set the stage for increased prices. (00:59)
• Geopolitical Turmoil: Subsequent Ukraine tariffs and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to war with Iran have pushed costs even higher, especially for oil and fertilizer. (01:10, 07:19, 14:09)
• Tariffs on Aluminum: A 50% tariff prompted a shift to Middle Eastern suppliers; the war further disrupted this. (16:06)
• Supply Chain Challenges: Shipping delays, rising fuel costs, bottlenecks in global transit, and climate change all exacerbate price increases. (07:21, 14:28, 17:06)

Tyler Culp [07:19]: "Growing seasons impacted by climate change... it's rising temperatures, its supply chain issues because of the stuff in Iran. Oil and fertilizer being trapped in the strait."

2. The Shopper Experience

• Sticker Shock and Changed Habits: Shoppers at East End Food Co-op express disbelief at the current prices of everyday items (e.g., $18.99 for a watermelon, $10 for a red pepper, dramatic increases in beef).
• Adapting Diets: Many shoppers report buying less meat, cheese, and luxury items to cope with higher prices. Some are forced to skip meals or eat less.
• Emotional Impact: Rising prices cause anxiety, lifestyle changes, and a sense of resignation among families.

Shopper [03:37]: "It's meteoric in a way. Nasty."
Shopper [33:03]: "Cut back what I eat. I packed my Lunch now for four months I eat watermelon every day for lunch."

3. Behind the Co-op Counter: Transparency & Constraints

• East End Food Co-op Structure: Owned by its members, with a mission to keep prices low rather than maximize profits, but constrained by lack of buying power.
• Price Transmission: The co-op receives pricing suggestions and pressure from national suppliers, but has some discretion on which items to pass costs onto shoppers.
• Notable Price Jumps: Increases since recent world events are substantial – apricots (+146%), sour pickles (+83%), mustard and matcha (+73%), tofu (+122%). (12:57–13:30)
• Procurement Struggles: Tyler Culp details his background and how managing a co-op requires statistical savvy, negotiation, and cultural understanding of customers. (08:26–09:09)

Tyler Culp [13:01]: "The average change for your bulk apricots, 146%. Sour pickles up 83%."
Interviewer [13:47]: "These percent increases are attributable to...?"
Culp [13:47]: "Yes. All the inflationary factors. Yeah, yep.”

4. Item-by-Item Analysis: Oil, Packaging, and Beef

• Oils and Glass Packaging: Transportation and raw material costs (fuel, glass, aluminum) disproportionately affect heavier and imported items like olive oil. (14:19–15:31)
• Aluminum Shortfall: Canned goods and anything in aluminum packaging will likely see further hikes due to supply chain snags caused by Middle Eastern factory closures. (15:53–16:56)
• The Iconic Beef Case: Beef prices exemplify cascading cost layers: feed and fertilizer from China/India stuck at ports, plastic packaging, cold-chain requirements, and local farm attrition. (17:03–19:00)
• Shoplifting Surge: With beef so costly, theft from meat cases at the co-op has increased, prompting added security. (19:37–20:29)

Culp [17:23]: "80, 20 grass fed beef, 9.99 for a 1 pound package... It's gone up $3 a pound just in the last year."
Culp [19:37]: "This is our most shoplifted case in the whole store... literally had, like, a duffel bag... just throwing beef and ground beef and steaks and even, like, chickens into this duffel bag."

5. Competitor Check: Aldi vs. The Co-op

• Recon at Aldi: Tyler and Jessica visit a local Aldi, highlighting the drastic difference in prices (e.g., $7.29 for organic grass-fed ground beef at Aldi vs. $9.99 at the Co-op), breadth of low-cost items ($1.46 for a dozen eggs), and store operation models (minimal labor, low touch, “no frills”). (25:16–29:04)
• Quality vs. Price Tradeoff: While Aldi's prices are unbeatable, Tyler notes that co-op products often have higher standards (e.g., truly grass-fed, humanely raised, locally sourced), but most consumers only see the sticker price. (28:11–28:49)

Culp [28:54]: "A lot of people buy ground beef. It's a staple for a lot of meat eating customers and it's a very price sensitive category."

6. Navigating the Future, Making Sacrifices

• Consumption Changes: More shoppers are doing all their shopping at discount stores to maximize savings and minimize number of trips. (21:56–22:24)
• Tough Choices: Families share stories of cutting portion sizes, skipping meals, and prioritizing children's nutrition over their own. (33:51–35:13)
• Adaptation and Resilience: Both managers and shoppers voiced a reluctant acceptance that adapting is unavoidable. (32:50–33:03)

Shopper [33:45]: "It's been quite a while."
Shopper [34:31]: "Sometimes try to eat once a day or just twice. Wow. Yeah. And not too much portions."

7. Will Prices Ever Drop?

• Rockets and Feathers Effect: Prices surge quickly but fall slowly, if at all; a “new normal” often settles in after shocks subside, and few expect a true reversal. (20:35)
• Temporary Fixes: Big box grocers have occasionally slashed prices (e.g., Walmart cut beef by 12%), but USDA expects prices to continue rising 3.2% this year. (19:00, 35:46)

Narrator [35:46]: "But even with those deals, Americans grocery bills are unlikely to fall. According to the Department of Agriculture, prices across all food categories are expected to rise 3.2% this year."

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Shopper [03:37]: "It's meteoric in a way. Nasty."
• Tyler Culp [17:23]: "80, 20 grass fed beef, 9.99 for a 1 pound package... It's gone up $3 a pound just in the last year."
• Shopper [33:03]: "Cut back what I eat. I packed my Lunch now for four months I eat watermelon every day for lunch."
• Tyler Culp [19:37]: "This is our most shoplifted case in the whole store."
• Culp [13:47]: "Yes. All the inflationary factors. Yeah, yep."
• Shopper [32:43]: "What are you supposed to do? Price it goes up. It's just the way life is, you know what I mean? So you have to be able to adapt to it."
• Shopper [34:31]: "Sometimes try to eat once a day or just twice. Wow. Yeah. And not too much portions."
• Narrator [20:35]: “Economists have a name for it. Rockets and feathers. Prices go up like rockets, but come down slowly like a feather.”

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Key Timestamps

• 00:53 – The struggle to get answers from grocery chains
• 03:33–06:05 – Shoppers react to sticker shock and altered habits
• 07:19–09:09 – Tyler Culp describes systemic drivers of cost
• 12:03–13:30 – Breakdown of product price increases at Co-op
• 15:53–16:56 – Aluminum supply chain issues explained
• 17:03–20:29 – The cascading costs of beef and impact on theft
• 25:16–29:20 – Scoping Aldi: price/quality comparison, co-op competitiveness
• 32:31–35:13 – Shoppers detail sacrifices, rationing, and coping mechanisms
• 35:46 – Even with chain “discounts,” overall food inflation persists

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Tone & Language

The tone is empathetic, grounded, and journalistic—driven by real voices from the grocery aisles and candid, explanatory conversation with the co-op manager. Quotes reflect everyday frustration, uncertainty, and resolve, balancing economic analysis with personal, lived experience.

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Conclusion

This episode lays bare the interlocking pressures behind rising grocery prices, from global wars and climate change to tariff policy and local market competition. It spotlights how both consumers and small grocers are forced to adapt, altering diets, shopping habits, and even the structure of household meals. Though some discounting and policy interventions offer brief respite, for now, rising costs remain the new normal—and Americans are learning to live within it.

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Transcript

[Narrator]

This podcast is supported by Instagram.

[Instagram Advertiser]

Instagram teen accounts default teens into automatic protections for who can contact them and the content they can see. Explore teen accounts and all of our ongoing work to protect teens [e-mail] teenaccounts

[Customer Service Representative]

if you know your party's extension, you may dial it now to speak to someone in customer service. 12. Bakery 13. Deli or hot foods 14. Meat or seafood 15.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

From the new York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroweff. This is the Daily. For a while now, my colleague, daily producer Jessica Chung, has been reporting on or trying to report on grocery prices.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Had a moment right now to talk

[Narrator]

about the kind of nature of shopping

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

right now and why everything is so

[Customer Service Representative]

expensive that you would have to contact our corporate office for any information like that.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

It started after Covid, when inflation and supply shortages sent prices soaring. Then came Ukraine tariffs and now the Strait of Hormuz, which has pushed prices even higher.

[Tyler Culp]

Sir, Mr. President, about the latest inflation number, which. No, I love the numbers, which you know what I really love?

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

I love the inflation.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

So she's been calling stores to talk about that, trying to find a grocery store manager who could talk about how they and the people who shop in their store are dealing with round after round round of rising food prices and how high those prices could possibly go.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

And who would you recommend that I

[Narrator]

talk to at the corporate level?

[Customer Service Representative]

Brad. Talk to Brad.

[Narrator]

I was told that this is a number for Brad.

[Customer Service Representative]

He is in a meeting in the moment. I get to get messages. When he gets out, he can call you back. Okay.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

But a lot of the grocery stores she'd reached out to never got back to her. And the big grocery chains referred her to people far removed from the shelves. And it seems like their job was to not answer her questions.

[Customer Service Representative]

I would love to, but unfortunately I'm not allowed to. I'm not really allowed to say anything. You should be able to just email mediaolefoods.com you can always call 1-800-krogers. Your call is being transferred.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

But then.

[Shopper 1]

Hello?

[Natalie Kitroeff]

She reached a small store and this one manager picked up the phone.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Wonder if you'd be open to a conversation about that.

[Tyler Culp]

Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, I would love to.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Today we go to his grocery store in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, to finally get some answers. It's Monday, July 13,

[Narrator]

In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. In a part of town called East End sits the aptly named East End Food Co Op. Tucked away in a street without a lot of foot traffic, its storefront is lined with grocery carts. There's a display of leafy potted herbs and organic seedless watermelons going for 18.99. Like most food cooperatives, there is no CEO. There are no shareholders. It's owned by the very people who shop there. 17,000 members,

[Shopper 1]

though.

[Narrator]

Anyone off the street can buy their groceries here.

[Tyler Culp]

No, we're not getting that.

[Customer Service Representative]

Put that back, please.

[Narrator]

On a Monday morning in the middle of June, I walked into the produce section.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

I'm talking to shoppers, grocery prices.

[Shopper 2]

Okay, go ahead.

[Narrator]

It was not hard to get people to talk about prices and how high they are.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

You notice grocery prices go up?

[Shopper 2]

Oh, most definitely to the extreme.

[Shopper 3]

Oh, indeed. It's meteoric in a way. Nasty.

[Shopper 1]

It's so kind of sad. Walking into the store sometimes I've heard

[Tyler Culp]

from everybody in my family that they're going up and when I bring stuff

[Narrator]

home, it's like, this is outrageous. It's not just at this co op, it's everywhere. Prices are soaring at unusually high rates. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, since 2020, grocery prices have climbed by nearly 30% at a rate way faster than before the pandemic.

[Shopper 4]

This lettuce is $4. That seems like a lot. I would have expected like $2.99.

[Tyler Culp]

Today the price of watermelons is $18.99.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

I saw that out front. I was surprised that was advertised.

[Tyler Culp]

I thought that was like a misprint. I just was shocked.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Fried pepp.

[Shopper 5]

Oh, my God.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

They're like almost $10 this morning. $10 for one pound per pound.

[Tyler Culp]

So one.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Okay. We're weighing it on the scale. It's almost a pound. So this is almost $10 for one red pepper.

[Shopper 4]

Just a few weeks ago, it was like seven or eight, and over the winter it was six. And it just keeps going up.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Is there one item where you've seen prices go up in your jaw just drop?

[Shopper 2]

Yes.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Steak, Steak, Beef, Beef.

[Shopper 1]

Beef.

[Shopper 2]

Used to be like you can get two nice steaks for about 20, $25. It's like 45 and up now. And is that New York strip, T Bones?

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

All kinds of stuff.

[Shopper 2]

All kinds. Yeah.

[Shopper 1]

So I've been seeing the family size bag.

[Narrator]

I think it's like seven or eight bucks now.

[Shopper 1]

It's not a family size.

[Instagram Advertiser 2]

Not at all.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

It's shrunk and the price has gone up.

[Shopper 5]

Yep.

[Shopper 4]

I don't like to think about it because it's scary.

[Narrator]

Yeah.

[Shopper 4]

So I don't think about it. So I don't pay that much it's attention. But I'm trying to buy less.

[Narrator]

Yeah. And then I don't really Do a

[Dani Blum]

good job of calculating how much I'm spending.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Now, is that like a psychological defense mechanism or is that a little bit?

[Shopper 5]

A little bit.

[Shopper 3]

I take this shopping, so I don't. This is my worry pepper.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Oh, this is kind of a stress ball in the form of a green pepper. Have you noticed the rise in prices? Change your habits at all?

[Shopper 4]

Like, I'll get less cheese, I'll get less meat, I'll get less chocolate.

[Shopper 3]

Designer ice cream that's long gone.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

What's the designer ice cream you like?

[Shopper 3]

Oh, well, the Haagen Dazs. That kind of stuff.

[Customer Service Representative]

Like the brambleberry crisp.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

I don't see ice cream.

[Shopper 1]

Exactly. We don't need it. And see, what we can carry is what we're buying.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Oh, no more baskets.

[Narrator]

No more baskets.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

What's your understanding of why this is happening?

[Shopper 4]

My understanding of why is that. Okay, this is. It's such a big question that my mind is sort of shutting down in this moment.

[Shopper 1]

Do shit to make us pay more. I don't know why stuff is so expensive. That doesn't make any sense to me.

[Tyler Culp]

I haven't done the research, I guess, onto the details of the why.

[Shopper 5]

You know, I don't know exactly how, but I just know it is.

[Shopper 1]

I don't super follow the news. I can't really say why it's happening.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

When you see all these prices go up, does it raise any questions for you?

[Shopper 1]

Yeah, I always think, like, what is this gonna look like in 5 years, 10 years? How this will affect our children.

[Narrator]

As shoppers, we know that a lot of factors go into the prices we see, but how many of us can name them?

[Shopper 1]

Hey, Tyler.

[Tyler Culp]

Yeah.

[Shopper 4]

Jess.

[Tyler Culp]

Nice to meet you.

[Narrator]

How's it going?

[Shopper 2]

Good.

[Political Commentator]

Yeah.

[Tyler Culp]

So far so good. You know, Monday morning, that's what I

[Narrator]

came here to talk to Tyler Culp about. For nearly 12 years, he's been at East End Food Co Op, most recently as general manager. And he's that one guy who picked up the phone.

[Tyler Culp]

Growing seasons impacted by climate change.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Climate change.

[Narrator]

Tyler is 44 years old, and like a lot of people in this part of town, he's got tattoos and is a food lover. In fact, he's got a newsletter, Garlic and Roses. He says yes, rising prices are driven by a bunch of factors. It's rising temperatures, its supply chain issues

[Tyler Culp]

because of the stuff in Iran. Oil and fertilizer being trapped in the strait.

[Narrator]

But the latest reason for why prices have accelerated so much is the war in Iran. At the time we talked, the US And Iran had reached an Agreement to reopen the strait of Hormuz. But it was unclear what open meant, how freely traffic would flow through the strait. Since then, the US And Iran have resumed fighting even as they engage in peace talks. So the price of oil continues to yo, yo up and down. And even if the price of oil manages to stay down, Tyler says shoppers won't be feeling a sense of relief anytime soon. But before I had him explain all

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

that, maybe starting from an earlier age, like, how did you know you wanted to go into the grocery store business?

[Narrator]

I asked him how he became an expert on this.

[Tyler Culp]

My grandparents owned a Baskin Robbins. I can remember waiting on customers, scooping ice cream, making changes.

[Narrator]

He grew up just a few hours east of here as a literal kid in an ice cream store.

[Tyler Culp]

I would have to, like, put my whole body on the brim of the case so I could balance scoop ice cream. And I loved it. It was so much fun, and I loved it.

[Narrator]

He liked talking to customers, studying what flavors people liked and in what seasons. And then he grew to develop an interest in a pretty esoteric supply chains.

[Tyler Culp]

I'm fascinated by the food supply chain and logistics of getting strawberries from Mexico or California to Pennsylvania in January or February. It's tedious and unique, but I found it fascinating, so I paid attention.

[Narrator]

To be a grocery store manager managing the margins of thousands of products on the shelves is to be a statistician, a haggler, and also a cultural anthropologist.

[Tyler Culp]

People are more inclined to buy an item if there's three or five displayed in a line.

[Narrator]

Like many other grocery store managers, Tyler's job is to drive sales. To do that, he's a hand in designing the whole experience the shoppers have, down to all the little details.

[Tyler Culp]

There's lots of studies and everything. Always say, if you get berries in people's baskets, they buy more of other things as well.

[Shopper 1]

Interesting.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Okay, so now I wonder if you might be able to take me around the store.

[Customer Service Representative]

Absolutely.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

And give me a little tour. Okay, cool.

[Tyler Culp]

Hey, how are you? Nicholas, Good to see you.

[Shopper 4]

Doing great.

[Political Commentator]

Thanks.

[Dani Blum]

Good to see you.

[Customer Service Representative]

Yeah.

[Political Commentator]

Thank you.

[Narrator]

There are ways East End feels different than most other grocery stores. Like the way it hits you when you first walk in.

[Tyler Culp]

I love the bulk herb section because I feel like it gives every co op a unique smell. This smell is so nice.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

I feel like the dominant smell right now is, like, turmeric.

[Tyler Culp]

Absolutely. Yep. Depending on where we go, we walk into whole Foods, it smells like their seafood department.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Yes.

[Tyler Culp]

That dominates everything.

[Narrator]

In addition to bulk herbs are bulk nuts. Grains and oats. There's kombucha on tap.

[Tyler Culp]

Keystone Cultures is a local kombuchery.

[Narrator]

There's Dr. Bronner's soap, available in a buffet of these big pump bottles on draft.

[Tyler Culp]

Yep. These are freshly ground peanut butter and almond butter. Coffee, olive oil we have, that's bulk sugar. We get these in 50 pound bags. And yeah, you got all your normal grocery store items. Pasta if you want, box macaroni cheese, we have it. It's just that it's going to meet our product standards and not have dyes or other chemical additives, preservatives that aren't up to co Op snuff.

[Narrator]

So shopping at the Co Op is a bit different than other places nearby. It's healthier, maybe a little hippier. But that's not to say it's yuppier. You may have to pay a little bit more for the quality stuff. But I met all kinds of people shopping here. A home health aide, barber, a couple of people on SNAP benefits. But it turns out it's maybe the most ideal place to look at rising food prices. Because unlike bigger chains like Kroger, which admitted to raising prices on certain items beyond the rate of inflation in 2024, the CO op model, which is owned by the very people who shop there, means they are more motivated to keep prices low than they are to turn a profit. And without the scale or storage capacity of a big box store, they can't negotiate buying at higher volumes. So the prices at the Co Op can actually be the most transparent prices and they give us a good look into how the war in Iran caused prices to surge.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Last week there was an inflation report that showed that inflation was up by like 4.2%. And you got an email.

[Tyler Culp]

Oh, yeah.

[Narrator]

Tyler brings his laptop over and on the sales floor, next to the prepared food section, he shows me an email forecasting price increases for July.

[Tyler Culp]

This was the National Co Op warning that there is a higher number of cost and price suggestion changes than normal in a month because the US had

[Narrator]

released its latest inflation report showing the highest rate of inflation in three years. Grocery prices aren't rising quite as fast, up 2.7% over the past year. But the message from on high is that Tyler would be forced to raise prices around the store yet again.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

So essentially national sends you this spreadsheet with hundreds of Items with their SKUs and they say we're gonna have to raise a price on this and you have discretion over whether, actually, whether we

[Shopper 2]

do it or not.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Don't do that. Because that item needs to stay low to attract customers.

[Tyler Culp]

Exactly.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

And in July, where are the biggest markups?

[Tyler Culp]

This apricots has been a huge one. The bulk dried apricots, it's going up.

[Customer Service Representative]

Yeah.

[Tyler Culp]

140 over six months. That is its average change.

[Dani Blum]

Wow.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

The average change for your bulk apricots, 146%. Sour pickles up 83%.

[Narrator]

Sliced peaches up 97%.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Mustard, 73%. Matcha, 73%.

[Tyler Culp]

Yeah. Bagels and English muffins, 10%. That's high. It translates to 41 cents per unit. I mean that's. People will notice that.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Tofu's up 122%.

[Tyler Culp]

Yes. Soybeans, because that's been a big thing with fertilizer and most of them come from China. So all the tofu stuff is going to be getting very high and getting higher. Anything over 20% to me is high in a six month period.

[Narrator]

Overall.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

These percent increases are attributable to.

[Tyler Culp]

Yes. All the inflationary factors. Yeah, yep.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

To world events.

[Narrator]

So prices around the store are going up fast.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Well, I wonder if you can. Okay, we can continue walking through the store and in particular if you can walk me through certain items where the price has gone up because of the war in Iran.

[Tyler Culp]

Yeah, yeah.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

So where would that be in the store?

[Tyler Culp]

So we've got, in this section, I

[Narrator]

asked Tyler to walk me through the store and show me how specific items have been impacted by the war in Iran.

[Tyler Culp]

We have canola, safflower, sunflower, all of these types of oils.

[Narrator]

And explain to me the journey it took to get here and how it arrived at that sticker price.

[Tyler Culp]

Here's your standard field day vegetable oil. Field day is our everyday low price brand. Those went up 5% in the same month. Cost more to transport. It's coming from farther distances. And also with fuel prices, some of the olive oils, like equal Exchange, you know, these are all from West Bank. And so you factor in that conflict and then also the transportation and fuel costs getting here and will it continue to go up? Yes, absolutely.

[Customer Service Representative]

Yeah.

[Tyler Culp]

Glass is heavier, so that costs more to, you know, transport. Say like beer companies, like everybody went to aluminum cans instead of glass bottles because of the weight on the truck. There's a value to keeping it in glass. It's a better product experience than plastic. But at a certain point they might have to make that decision that because it's so much heavier to transport, they might have to make decisions.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Your glass olive oil is the most expensive items on the shelf.

[Customer Service Representative]

Oh yeah.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

At like 1699, 23, 99.

[Narrator]

But the ones in aluminum, $15.99.

[Tyler Culp]

Yeah. One glass jar could travel crisscross the country like four times.

[Narrator]

You know, in theory, olive oil could be produced in the west bank and bottled in California, travel by freight to be warehouse in Illinois before it is driven down the Pennsylvania Turnpike to this grocery store. All of that burns up a ton of fuel.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

And then over here to the canned beans. Are the prices for beans going up or anything with aluminum?

[Tyler Culp]

Aluminum, I think, is going to be the next one.

[Narrator]

And then there's the cost of raw materials that go into packaging, like soda.

[Tyler Culp]

Anything that's packaged in an aluminum can, that's going to be the next thing, I think that sees a big price increase.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

And why aluminum?

[Narrator]

Last year, after Trump imposed a 50% tariff on aluminum imports, American buyers started sourcing more aluminum from the Middle east, only to find that after the US Attacked Iran, their new aluminum supply was stuck because shipping through the strait became impossible. Some smelters in the Middle east factories where aluminum is made, stop production altogether. Others, like one in Abu Dhabi, were directly damaged by Iranian strikes. But even as the US and Iran continue with peace talks, it will take a long time before supply is back to normal. The site in Abu Dhabi will have to be restored. And for the companies that stop production, a frozen line could take months to restart. Which means when the cost of aluminum drives up the cost of your olive oil in the coming months, it will stay that way for a while.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

So where are we headed now?

[Narrator]

But Tyler says there's really one item that reflects the forces leading to higher prices better than any other.

[Tyler Culp]

We're gonna head over to our meat

[Narrator]

section, and that's beef.

[Tyler Culp]

Beef prices have gone up tremendously. It takes the most resources to have cows fed, basically more so than, you know, chicken or seafood, anything like that. So beef is usually the first place we see a dramatic increase in 80, 20 grass fed beef, 9.99 for a

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

1 pound package of ground beef.

[Tyler Culp]

Of ground beef. When we introduced that brand, it was always $6.99. And then in the last year, so not necessarily strictly because of Iran, but all the fuel costs going up. Like it's gone up $3 a pound just in the last year. So, you know, when you've got land and somewhere in the United States and you're raising a herd of cattle, it takes so much feed, okay. And industrial agriculture, a lot of that is coming from China. And so not only is it traveling a tremendous distance and there's all the associated fuel costs, but it's also getting stuck in the Strait of Hormuz. China, India, huge producers of feed and fertilizer, and they all go through that strait. Same with oil. And then you have to then ship your cows. They go to a meat processing plant, which is all on trucks transporting it, and then the packaging. So at every point, you're seeing an increase in cost.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

And all that meat has to go into plastic.

[Tyler Culp]

Yep.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Which is also takes fuel to make and ship.

[Shopper 5]

Yep.

[Tyler Culp]

And then it all has to be cold, refrigerated, or frozen. The entire. If it loses the cold chain, it's waste, it's garbage.

[Narrator]

And there is yet another thing. Driving up costs. Dairy farmers are going dry all across America, down on their luck, struggling with their own price increases of running a farm. The share of farmers declaring bankruptcy has risen by 70% so far this year.

[Tyler Culp]

The next generation, for a lot of these farmers, they don't want to do it. They see how hard it is.

[Narrator]

Here in Western Pennsylvania, Tyler's own beef suppliers have quit the business, meaning he now has to source his beef from further away, which could make his beef even more expensive. It's a problem for Tyler and his customers, but it's also a problem for the Trump White House, which is doing whatever it can to lower prices. Before the Fourth of July weekend, a USDA official pressured leading chain stores like Kroger and Walmart to lower the price of ground beef. Walmart dropped its price by 12%. But this is just a temporary fix in the face of declining supply, rising costs, and unflagging demand for beef.

[Tyler Culp]

This is our most shoplifted case in the whole store.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

You're kidding me.

[Tyler Culp]

Steaks and beef. Yep. We had to add a security guard in the morning. We only have one afternoon through closing time. We had to add one in the morning because it was getting shoplifted multiple times in the morning.

[Shopper 1]

Wow.

[Shopper 2]

Wow.

[Tyler Culp]

I chased a guy down the street, which we don't do, but I was like, this is like, you are taking from our community. And it was just. It felt so blatant at that point. Like, literally. He literally had, like, a duffel bag. And I saw him standing here just throwing beef and ground beef and steaks and even, like, chickens into this duffel bag. And I tried to get him to drop it, and he just bolted for the door. And I was like, I'm going after this. Like, I can't.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

And what happened?

[Tyler Culp]

Well, I got, like, a block down the road, and then I was like, this is stupid. Like, I don't want to get stabbed for yeah, yeah.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

So he got away.

[Tyler Culp]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

But this is like a jewelry heist. Beefcase. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

[Shopper 1]

Wow.

[Narrator]

Tyler says it might be a while before beef prices stabilize. Just like everything else, economists have a name for it. Rockets and feathers. Prices go up like rockets, but come down slowly like a feather. Because even if the strait reopens and even if oil prices come down, disruption in the supply chain takes time to readjust. And if a new normal is accepted and there's no competition, manufacturers tend to keep the prices artificially high. And then if your grocery store buys in large quantities with prices locked in up to a year, they're stuck at that price for the year.

[Tyler Culp]

And I'll be curious to see when we go to another store a. I don't know what's in that ground beef, but I'm also curious to see how much it costs at this point, even for, like the lower quality conventional chemical beef products, how much they're going for. Exactly, yeah. Four new grocery stores have opened within a four mile radius of us. The price increases is driving more people to the discount grocer. So we have an all Aldi's less than a mile from here. They at first didn't really have much of an impact on us, but now that the food inflation has reared up again a noticeable way, we are seeing more and more people choosing lower quality product at a discount grocer for more of their basket.

[Narrator]

Tyler says he's already watched more of his customers shop at Aldi and this is part of a bigger trend. He reads in all the industry reports. A few years ago, even as prices were rising, customers would do their shopping at multiple stores, hitting each for their best deals and products. But now they're more likely to do almost all their shopping at one place at a discount supermarket and not places like East End.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

And you can't survive if customers are just coming in for one or two products, correct?

[Customer Service Representative]

Yeah.

[Tyler Culp]

Like long term, no. Why would I have all this stuff?

[Narrator]

If shoppers start to see East End as a place to go to for just a few items and not the bulk of their groceries, he's not sure how it continues to survive.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Now, I understand that part of your job is also scoping out the prices of your competitors, like Aldi. Would you bring me onto one of those?

[Customer Service Representative]

Yeah.

[Shopper 3]

Oh, I'd love to.

[Tyler Culp]

That'd be really fun.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

One of those trips?

[Tyler Culp]

Yeah, yeah, it would be my pleasure.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Okay, now how discreet do we have to be?

[Tyler Culp]

They may have, like, a media policy.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Okay, well then maybe I will switch into different recording gear that's just like a little bit more discreet.

[Shopper 1]

Sure.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

But maybe we should take a break. I would like to eat one of those.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

After the break, Tyler and Jess scope out the competition. We'll be right back.

[Narrator]

This podcast is supported by Instagram.

[Instagram Advertiser 2]

Instagram Teen Accounts, automatic protections for teens. Instagram Teen Accounts have built in content settings and limits for who can contact teens. Plus, teens under 16 can't change these default safety settings without parental approval, so parents can help teens connect safely. Instagram Teen Accounts, automatic protections for who can contact teens and the content they can see. Learn [e-mail] teenaccounts tell me if any

[Dani Blum]

of this sounds familiar. Eating meat is the key to good health. Nicotine can boost brain function. GLP1s are a miracle drug. I'm Dani Blum. I'm a health reporter at the New York Times. We're bombarded pretty much constantly with claims about how to live better and feel better. And it's really hard to separate fact from fiction. That's what really differentiates my reporting and the Times is that I am scouring the science. I am seeing speaking with leading experts. I am making sure that everything I write is rigorously researched, reported, and that I can back it up. And when the science isn't clear, sometimes that is the story that we don't know the answers yet. And that's a level of nuance and depth you're not going to get just floating around the Internet. That's what you get when you subscribe to the New York Times. If you already subscribe, thanks. If you'd like to go to mytimes.com subscribe.

[Narrator]

Put this in your back pocket and just clip this onto your shirt. Later on the afternoon, Tyler and I wired up and walked eight minutes down a high traffic street. Next to a vacated Rite Aid sits the Aldi.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Well, this Aldi looks really spanking new.

[Customer Service Representative]

It is.

[Narrator]

Tyler routinely scopes this place out since it opened a year and a half ago.

[Shopper 5]

All right, let's go.

[Customer Service Representative]

Let's do it.

[Tyler Culp]

I hate seeing Messy store for $149

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

$1.49 for BlackBerries, which. That's not a bad price. No, it's a great price for Georgian grown blackberries.

[Customer Service Representative]

Yeah.

[Tyler Culp]

And honestly, they're probably very good. You got a nice little moldy.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Oh, yeah, that's a moldy peach inside the bag.

[Tyler Culp]

Maybe. They're fantastic peaches. But all these doesn't have employees who would be culling this and keeping it nice. Whereas we have staff who part of their Job in the produce department is to like get rid of stuff like that because that's. Nobody wants to see that. That's their whole model is like no labor. They just drop pallets on the floor. The bananas they don't even take out of a box.

[Narrator]

This is a very different shopping experience than at Tyler's store. It's much bigger, the aisles are wider, no frills. As a shopper, you'd be hard pressed to find someone to help you locate the parsley. The few workers we did see were clearing the sales floor if empty boxes or products were shipped in and no workers were needed to wrangle carts. You rent a grocery cart for a quarter and get that quarter back when you return it. No loose carts, no extra workers. Aldi told me in a statement that all of this is meant to drive down costs and lower prices. A strategy that seems to be working. Aldi is the fastest growing grocery store store chain in the country with 180 new stores underway. This watermelon, what is 450?

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

I can't even see it cuz there's some mush over the price.

[Tyler Culp]

It's like 465 maybe. And it's a good looking watermelon, honestly. It's got a nice sunspot. I bet it's tasty.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

And yours is going for $19 per watermelon out front.

[Tyler Culp]

Probably the local organic ones.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Everything's in boxes.

[Tyler Culp]

Yep. And everything's in plastic.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

I mean there's a broken egg inside the fridge.

[Tyler Culp]

Yeah, that's bad.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

That's just yolk all over raunchy the ground. But I mean for 1:46 a dozen. $1.46 a dozen, that is.

[Tyler Culp]

It's hard to beat.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

I've never seen anything that low.

[Tyler Culp]

Yeah, they're buying a ton in volume for as many stores as they could get the product into to get that deal. Like you may never see the same bag of chips twice. See what's over here and look at their beef. So we talked about that before. Yeah.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Let's see how low they can go.

[Narrator]

When we arrive at the beef case, we see a wide selection, some even going for $4.79 a pound.

[Tyler Culp]

Yeah, that looks busted.

[Narrator]

This is the kind of beef Tyler didn't seem threatened by until I'm curious what they. We both looked up at the top shelf. 100% grass fed and you reach overhead for a package. A pound of organic ground beef going for $7.29.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Organic grass fed.

[Shopper 2]

No. Yeah it is.

[Tyler Culp]

It is organic.

[Shopper 4]

Yeah,

[Tyler Culp]

I mean, that's tough, you know, I guess.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

How do you feel seeing that?

[Tyler Culp]

I mean it's disappointing. I mean I'm glad that they're offering an organic option, grass fed to their folks. There are other considerations with, especially with meat like humanely raised that this doesn't talk about. Our standards include humanely raised grass fed grass finished. Also because I mean in theory you could give this cow one blade of grass and say it was grass fed. It doesn't say that's the only thing it ever ate its whole life, you know, so that's a consideration.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

But what are you feeling when you see that they're able to opt for, you know, we don't really know how comparable but to a consumer, pretty comparable product for.

[Customer Service Representative]

Right.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

For a little $2.70 less.

[Tyler Culp]

A lot of people buy ground beef. It's a staple for a lot of meat eating customers and it's a very price sensitive category. It's very much one that people are attuned to.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Like eggs and milk.

[Tyler Culp]

Yep, exactly. It's hard to say. We just got to stay on top of it all. You know, you can't slouch. That's, that's what this says to me. Like we haven't lost. I'm a little surprised at the volume of the organic beef. Like I said that and stakes that. That's a little bit of a new thing for me.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Yeah. There's like a whole shelf.

[Tyler Culp]

Yeah.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

That's like maybe 1/10 of their selection of beef is organic.

[Customer Service Representative]

Yeah.

[Narrator]

Does seeing this make you think you

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

might want to lower your beef prices and then mark up something else in that store? And what would that be?

[Tyler Culp]

Yeah, possibly that could be a solution or whatever my advertised deals items are that week, add a dime to that for each product instead of the biggest discount possible.

[Narrator]

Figuring out how to Compete with Aldi's $7.29 grass fed organic ground beef requires a little math. Tyler could raise the price on his lamb, but he doesn't sell enough lamb to make up for what he's losing in beef. So he could raise the price of a couple of other items around the store. Or normally he wouldn't have enough storage to buy ground beef at a high volume and its lowest price. But he could bet that with a promotional price he could see sell beef fast enough that he wouldn't have to worry about storing it for long.

[Tyler Culp]

We're not going to drive all these out of the organic ground beef market. But you have to try. Is the thing is like you try, you use all the tools in your toolkit and regain a little bit of that ground.

[Customer Service Representative]

All right.

[Tyler Culp]

Anything else in here or think we're good?

[Narrator]

And with that key bit of intel, our reconnaissance trip was complete.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

The exit may be ordered.

[Customer Service Representative]

Oh, yeah.

[Tyler Culp]

They forced you to go through the cash register.

[Shopper 4]

Oh, yeah.

[Tyler Culp]

You gotta break out of this. Aldi's.

[Narrator]

After our visit to Aldi, Tyler is figuring out a way to lower the price of his ground beef by raising the price of his frozen beef and negotiating a lower rate with his beef supplier. He's hoping to offer his ground beef at $8.99 a dollar lower than what he'd been charging. It's not the $7.29 at Aldi, but Tyler says it's close enough to compete and low enough to put on flyers as a promotion item to customers. That's just one item in a store of thousands. Right now he's putting in pre orders for turkeys that would lock him in at current high inflationary prices, not knowing what he can sell them for come November. It's a high wire act, balancing these prices with the hope that it all adds up. And then I think about the customers at both East End and at Aldi who asked me if the cost of groceries will ever go down, what will happen in five or 10 years and what would it mean for their children? Tyler can't say for certain, but he says cost going up is just how it always goes. Even if we see inflation numbers go down, it doesn't translate to normal food prices. It just means prices rise slower. And if one of the fallouts of the war in Iran is that a new fee will be imposed on every ship passing through the strait, he says those costs will continue to be passed on to customers who have long gotten the message that they will just have to adapt.

[Customer Service Representative]

Customer assistance. Peanut butter machine. Customer assistance at the Peanut butter machine. Thank you.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Do you blame anyone? Like, do you want someone to do something about this?

[Shopper 3]

It's nothing that can be done about that. You gotta bite the. I gotta find a way to come up with the money.

[Shopper 1]

You know, I'm sure it's like 50,000 reasons and excuses why we're slammed with this.

[Shopper 2]

What are you supposed to do? Price it goes up. It's just the way life is, you know what I mean? So you have to be able to adapt to it.

[Shopper 1]

A lot of moms adapt.

[Tyler Culp]

We're resilient.

[Customer Service Representative]

We gotta adapt, you know? Gotta adapt.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Are you finding that you have to make certain sacrifices to make ends meet?

[Shopper 2]

Cut back what I eat. I packed my Lunch now for four months I eat watermelon every day for lunch.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

For four months you ate watermelon?

[Shopper 2]

I still do. Every day? Yeah.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Is that enough?

[Shopper 2]

Yeah. Watermelon with an apple? Yeah. And my water? Yeah. You get adjusted to it.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

And how much watermelon are we talking for lunch?

[Shopper 2]

Four or five nice pieces. I put it in the containers about that big and I put that in there. And then I have an apple and I have a bottle of water.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

The, the food that I can eat is very limited. I can't just get peanut butter. I have to get like sunflower seed butter which is extremely expensive. But sometimes I just won't eat. You just won't eat? Yeah. So like I've lost a lot of weight. How long has this been going for that you feel like you have to skimp?

[Natalie Kitroeff]

It's been quite a while.

[Shopper 1]

I have kids that are cheerleaders. I have boys that play sports. They have practice so they were hungrier than usual. And my kids often are like, can I have some more? I'm just like, sure.

[Narrator]

And that's your portion?

[Shopper 1]

Sometimes. But then I'll survive off of something small.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Like what?

[Shopper 1]

Like I'll go eat ramen noodles or something. I'll make them dinner and I'll go eat their chicken nuggets or something. You can't eat like how you used to. Like you have to like space it out a lot. You don't run out of food.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

You mean eat, Eat less?

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Yeah.

[Shopper 4]

Oh, wow.

[Shopper 5]

Yeah, eat less and budget more.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

That seems like a real sacrifice and real change.

[Narrator]

It is.

[Shopper 1]

Sometimes try to eat once a day or just twice. Wow. Yeah. And not too much portions.

[Shopper 5]

Just eat just enough. Eat to not be entirely full, but just eat just enough for your body

[Tyler Culp]

to be okay basically.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

Have you ever had to do this in your life?

[Shopper 5]

No.

[Shopper 1]

No.

[Shopper 5]

Always ate over eight. We try to make like pastas, chickpea and rice kind of thing, like you know, jackfruit burgers. You know, we try.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

What's your guys relationship to each other?

[Shopper 1]

Wives.

[Narrator]

We have two teenage boys, two teenage

[Shopper 5]

boys, 12 and 14.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

They eat a lot.

[Shopper 5]

Yeah, they eat more than often and that's why we have to sacrifice or you know, eating as much because they need the nutrition.

[Interviewer / Reporter Jessica Chung]

I see, I see like worried of,

[Shopper 5]

you know, not being able to provide for my family or that we are going to be okay for today.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

A number of grocery store chains, including Walmart, Target and Costco recently announced that they're cutting prices on some of their key products. But even with those deals, Americans grocery bills are unlikely to fall. According to the Department of Agriculture, prices across all food categories are expected to rise 3.2% this year. We'll be right back.

[Narrator]

This podcast is supported by Instagram.

[Instagram Advertiser]

Instagram Teen accounts default teens into automatic protections for who can contact them and the content they can see. Explore Teen accounts and all of our ongoing work to protect teens [e-mail] teenaccounts

[Solana Pine]

hi, I'm Solana Pine. I'm the director of video at the New York Times. For years, my team has made videos that bring you closer to big news moments, videos by Times journalists that have the expertise to help you understand what's going on. Now we're bringing those videos to you in the Watch tab in the New York Times app. It's a dedicated video feed where you know you can trust what you're seeing. All the videos there are free for anyone to watch. You don't have to be a subscriber. Download the New York Times app to start watching.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Here's what else you need to know today. Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican who epitomized his party's transformation from outright hostility toward Donald Trump to flattering embrace of him, has died at the age of 71.

[Political Commentator]

He's a race baiting, xenophobic religious bigot. He doesn't represent my party. He doesn't represent the values that the men and women who wear the uniform are fighting for.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

In 2015, as a Republican candidate for president, Graham led the charge against Trump, calling him a, quote, kook, crazy and unfit for office. But once Trump won the presidency, Graham suddenly became his eager ally. Our colleague Mark Leibovich pushed Graham to explain that abrupt pivot in an episode of the daily back in 2019.

[Shopper 3]

You seem a little sick and tired

[Tyler Culp]

of the what's happening to Lindsey Graham question. Yeah, well, it's just like, yeah, like,

[Political Commentator]

okay, nothing from my point of view. If you know anything about me, it'd be odd for me not to do this now.

[Instagram Advertiser 2]

What is this?

[Customer Service Representative]

The work with him?

[Political Commentator]

Try to be relevant.

[Customer Service Representative]

Try to be relevant.

[Natalie Kitroeff]

Graham told Leibovich that his partnership with Trump was pragmatic and allowed him to achieve his own political goals, which over time included defending Ukraine against Russia. Graham's office said that he died from a brief illness shortly after returning from his latest trip to Ukraine. And attacks between Iran and the US Continued to escalate over the weekend with no signs of progress to salvage the ceasefire. After the US Military said that Iran had attacked another container ship in the Strait of Hormuz overnight between Saturday and Sunday, US Forces carried out some of their most intense strikes on Iran in weeks. US Central Command said it had hit about 140 Iranian military targets. In response, Iran attacked several US allied Persian Gulf states, though the US military said that those strikes didn't cause significant damage. The Iranian government said it also had closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, though President Trump disputed that claim. Today's episode was produced by Jessica Chung with help from Rachel Banja. It was edited by Michael Benoit with help from Paige Cowett and Patricia Willins. Fact Checked by Will Pieschel and contains music by Marion Lozano. Our theme music is by Wonderly. This episode was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. Special thanks to Ben Castleman, Kim Severson, Kevin Draper and Anna Foley. That's it for the Daily I'm Natalie Kitroweff. See you tomorrow.

[Narrator]

This podcast is supported by Instagram.

[Instagram Advertiser]

Instagram Teen accounts default teens into automatic protections for who can contact them and the content they can see. Explore teen accounts and all of our ongoing work to protect teens [e-mail] teenaccounts.