Why U.S.-Iran Negotiations Failed

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Daily

Episode: Why U.S.-Iran Negotiations Failed

Date: April 13, 2026
Host: Natalie Kitroeff
Guests: Mark Mazzetti, Ronan Bergman
Focus: The failed negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, the precarious ceasefire, and the rift with Israel, especially over Lebanon and Hezbollah.

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Episode Overview

This episode dissects the recent breakdown of negotiations between the United States and Iran, explores why a temporary ceasefire is under acute threat, and unpacks the intensifying discord between U.S. and Israeli priorities — especially in relation to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Through deep reporting and fresh insights from Mark Mazzetti in D.C. and Ronan Bergman in Israel, The Daily explores the tensions, stakes, and motivations driving each major actor in the conflict.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Collapse of U.S.-Iran Negotiations

[02:13 – 05:06]

• U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and senior Iranian officials met for 21 hours in Islamabad but failed to reach a deal.
• Main sticking points:
  • Iran's continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
  • Iran's demand for sanctions relief.
• “We have not reached an agreement. And I think that's bad news for Iran much more than it's bad news for the United States of America.” – J.D. Vance [03:06]
• President Trump displayed open indifference, saying:
  “Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me.” – Donald Trump [04:08]

2. The Israel Factor: Diverging Interests

[05:19 – 13:56]

• Israel is deeply unsettled by U.S. steps toward a broad ceasefire, feeling sidelined by Trump’s unilateral decisions.
• Israel’s military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon is central to Netanyahu’s security and political calculus.
• Israel did not agree to ceasefire terms that included Lebanon, only Iran.
  • “Israel did not agree to the ceasefire. It accepted the ceasefire on Iran. It did not accept the ceasefire on Lebanon.” – Ronan Bergman [10:03]
• The U.S. and Israel’s interests began to diverge sharply, especially over whether to include Hezbollah/Lebanon in peace terms.
  • Mark Mazzetti clarifies:
    “President Trump... doesn't care what happens in Lebanon and with Hezbollah if a ceasefire in Lebanon is part of an ultimate end to the war in Iran.” [10:45]

3. The Fallout: Israeli Strikes in Lebanon

[11:20 – 12:43]

• Despite the U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks, Israel carried out a massive bombardment of Beirut, targeting over 100 locations in minutes, causing extensive casualties and devastation.
• Scenes described as “horrific... people, including children, being pulled from the rubble of residential buildings, grocery stores, shops.” – Natalie Kitroeff [11:46]
• The U.S. was aware Israel would strike but shocked at the scale:
  • “The Americans were aware that Israel is going to strike, but were shocked at the extent of the strike.” – Ronan Bergman [12:08]

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4. Why Hezbollah Matters to Israel

[15:07 – 22:21]

• For Israel, Hezbollah is not just an Iranian proxy but the foremost threat:
  • Before October 7, Hezbollah was considered “the most fierce and threatening enemy of Israel.” – Ronan Bergman [15:36]
• The much-trumpeted Israeli success against Hezbollah turned out to be incomplete:
  • “The non-existent, decimated Hezbollah was still able to send missiles from Lebanon to central Israel just few days ago.” – Ronan Bergman [18:36]
• Netanyahu publicly promised Israelis in the north it was safe to return home, but repeated Hezbollah attacks shattered this claim.
• Israel’s military and public consensus:
  • “The lesson they learned from October 7th is never let a hostile force grow... once this force declares its goal is to eliminate the state of Israel. The end game... is to dismantle and disarm Hezbollah.” – Ronan Bergman [20:00]
• Proposed solutions:
  1. Hezbollah surrenders arms (considered unlikely)
  2. Lebanese government disarms Hezbollah (has already failed)
  3. Israel invades Lebanon — historically problematic — or establishes a buffer zone in Lebanon.

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5. Iran’s Deep Ties with Hezbollah

[22:24 – 24:22]

• Iran’s relationship with Hezbollah is foundational, both strategically and ideologically — rooted in shared Shia faith and “axis of resistance” (muqawamah).
• “Iran and its proxies... call themselves Jabal Mukawama, the axis of resistance. This is the core of their partnership, the core of their brotherhood.” – Ronan Bergman [23:15]
• The current fight is existential for this axis, thus Iran refuses to abandon Hezbollah in talks.

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6. The U.S. Position: Who Really Calls the Shots?

[25:24 – 26:57]

• Netanyahu’s leverage over Trump is overstated; ultimately, Trump “holds the leverage in ending it and he can tell Netanyahu when the war will end.” – Mark Mazzetti [26:34]
• “This war will end only when Trump says it's over.” – Ronan Bergman [25:52]

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7. The (Seemingly Impossible) Path to Resolution

[24:39 – 25:24, 27:04 – End]

• The diplomatic path is “intractable”: Lebanese government isn’t empowered to negotiate for Hezbollah, direct negotiation is off the table, and all issues (Iran, Lebanon, Gaza) are now entangled.
• As Hezbollah/Lebanon becomes central to a deal, “the more the U.S. and Trump will lean on Netanyahu to end the campaign.” – Mark Mazzetti [27:04]
• Root problem: the joint war with Israel was founded on aligned short-term aims, but “once a war begins, things go out of your control... Iran has not responded the way that the U.S. and Israel had hoped.” – Mark Mazzetti [27:59]
• Netanyahu is pushing for maximal gains before the U.S. pulls out:
  “A war against Iran has been Netanyahu’s obsession for decades... he sees this as his last, best chance.” – Mark Mazzetti [28:32]
• Netanyahu’s camp hoped the failed talks would lead Trump to resume the war:
  “They are hoping we’ll go back to war soon.” – Ronan Bergman [29:04]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• J.D. Vance (03:06): “We have not reached an agreement. And I think that's bad news for Iran much more than it's bad news for the United States of America.”
• Donald Trump (04:08): “Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me.”
• Ronan Bergman (10:03): “Israel did not agree to the ceasefire. It accepted the ceasefire on Iran. It did not accept the ceasefire on Lebanon.”
• Mark Mazzetti (12:08): “The Americans were aware that Israel is going to strike, but were shocked at the extent of the strike.”
• Ronan Bergman (15:36): “Before October 7, it was Hezbollah who was considered to be the most fierce and threatening enemy of Israel.”
• Ronan Bergman (18:36): “The non-existent, decimated Hezbollah was still able to send missiles from Lebanon to central Israel just few days ago.”
• Ronan Bergman (20:00): “The lesson... from October 7th is never let a hostile force grow... once this force declares its goal is to eliminate the state of Israel.”
• Ronan Bergman (23:15): “This is the core of their partnership, the core of their brotherhood… the axis of resistance.”
• Mark Mazzetti (26:34): “He [Trump] holds the leverage in ending it and he can tell Netanyahu when the war will end.”
• Mark Mazzetti (27:59): “Once a war begins, things go out of your control... Iran has not responded the way that the U.S. and Israel had hoped.”
• Ronan Bergman (29:04): “They are hoping we’ll go back to war soon.”

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Important Timestamps

• [02:13] Status of failed U.S.-Iran negotiations
• [05:19] Israel's frustration with U.S. ceasefire moves
• [10:03] Israel's non-acceptance of Lebanon ceasefire
• [11:20] Massive Israeli airstrikes on Beirut
• [15:36] Background on Hezbollah as Israel’s primary threat
• [18:36] Hezbollah’s continued capability
• [20:00] Israel’s doctrine: never let a hostile force grow too strong
• [22:24] Iran’s historical and religious partnership with Hezbollah
• [25:52] Ultimate authority: Trump decides when war ends
• [27:59] The dilemmas and loss of control in joint wars

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Conclusion

The episode captures a moment of recurring crisis and strategic misalignment. Negotiations have failed, not just over nuclear or economic issues, but critically over Lebanon and Hezbollah, an issue where the U.S. and Israel are sharply divided. Israel sees Lebanon's Hezbollah as existential; Iran sees its protection as core to its regional strategy. The U.S., caught between allies, has leverage but an issue that won’t yield to easy solutions. As Netanyahu clings to his “last, best chance” at strategic victory, and as President Trump appears publicly disengaged, the path to peace remains elusive and perilous.

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Transcript

[J.D. Vance]

It's your headline to unpack.

[Vivian Wong]

It's your one story to follow week by week.

[Mark Mazzetti]

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[Devin]

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[Mark Mazzetti]

It's your 36 hours to explore. It's your marinade to master. It's your opinion to figure out.

[Natalie Kitrowev]

It's your mattress to upgrade.

[Devin]

It's your day to know what else you need to know today.

[Mark Mazzetti]

The New York Times. It's your world to understand. Find out [e-mail] yourworld

[Natalie Kitrowev]

from the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitrowev. This is the Daily. After the marathon negotiations between the US And Iran this weekend failed to produce any breakthroughs, the temporary ceasefire appears more precarious than ever. One of the biggest questions looming over it is Israel and whether it will

[Devin]

accept peace or keep fighting a war

[Natalie Kitrowev]

on multiple fronts that threatens any chance of a deal. Today, my colleagues Mark Mazzetti and Ronan Bergman explain. It's Monday, april 13th.

[Devin]

Ronan, Mark, hello. It is about 10:00am on Sunday on the East Coast, 5:00pm where you are, Ronan and Israel. And we say that because things can always change. Thank you for joining us on a Sunday.

[Mark Mazzetti]

Thank you.

[Ronan Bergman]

Thanks for inviting us.

[Devin]

So we've turned to you both throughout this war to understand the role that Israel has played in this conflict. And that question has become more critical than ever at this particular moment when it appears that Israel continues to act threatened the ceasefire between the US And Iran. And we're going to get to how that's playing out. But first, just help me understand the state of things right now. Negotiators from Iran and the U.S. including Vice President J.D. vance, met in Pakistan this weekend. Mark, where do things stand?

[Mark Mazzetti]

So JD Vance and a very senior delegation of Iranian officials had a marathon session on Saturday in Islamabad where they were meeting to hash out some of their biggest differences. No one could tell what was happening in the negotiations where a lot of reporters were waiting around to find out any piece of information and there was nothing coming. And then by Saturday night, Washington time, we get word that the talks had broken down.

[J.D. Vance]

Well, good morning, everybody, and let me say a couple of notes of appreciation.

[Mark Mazzetti]

First of all, J.D. vance comes out and he announces that there's no deal.

[J.D. Vance]

We have been at it now for 21 hours and we've had a number of substantive discussions with the Iranians. That's the good news. The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement. And I think that's bad news for Iran much more than it's bad news for the United States. Of America.

[Mark Mazzetti]

So the American delegation is leaving Islamabad, and there's really no immediate prospects for another round of negotiations, although that could certainly happen.

[J.D. Vance]

We've made very clear what our red lines are, what things we're willing to accommodate them on and what things we're not willing to accommodate them on. And we've made that as clear as we possibly could, and they have chosen not to accept our terms.

[Mark Mazzetti]

And meanwhile, there's this sort of extraordinary split screen where. And with us in the building tonight, President Trump is in Miami at a UFC fight.

[Devin]

Oh, wow.

[Mark Mazzetti]

United States of America. Donald J. Trump projecting kind of indifference to the whole thing.

[Donald Trump]

We'll see what happens. Look, regardless, we win, regardless what happens, we win.

[Mark Mazzetti]

You know, he says to reporters on the way down, well, I don't really care what goes on in these negotiations, because we've already won.

[Donald Trump]

In addition to that, we're negotiating. Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me.

[Mark Mazzetti]

He's already declared victory. So it was sort of an amazing day that ultimately ended very inconclusively in terms of what's next in the war on Iran.

[Devin]

Right. Despite Trump's statement to the contrary, there is no resolution that's come out of this. This thing is not over, it's not won. It's very much still on the table. What's gonna happen next?

[Mark Mazzetti]

Right. Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed. Iran still has a stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which the United States wants it to give up. And Iran is demanding economic sanctions relief from these very crippling sanctions that the United States for years has imposed on the country. And so after all these negotiations on Saturday, it doesn't appear there was great progress on any of those fronts.

[Devin]

So those are the main points of contention, Mark. The strait being closed, what happens with the stockpile of highly enriched uranium and potential sanctions relief?

[Mark Mazzetti]

Yes, that. And there's another reason which is kind of more unstated and a bit more under the radar, and that's Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran very much wants any cessation of the war in Iran to be coupled with an ending of Israeli strikes against Hezbollah, which is a critical pro army for Iran. And yet Israel doesn't want Hezbollah to be part of any negotiated ceasefire and wants to keep that part of the war going for its own reasons.

[Devin]

Okay, we're going to get to those reasons, but first, just explain Israel and its position right now for me. Ronan, the last time we all talked on the show, you both told us that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was worried that the US Would pull out of this war earlier than Israel wanted before its objectives were achieved. And then we got this ceasefire last Tuesday after five weeks of fighting. So how did Israel react when it learned that the US Was taking what looked like a first step toward ending the war?

[Ronan Bergman]

So Benjamin Itan, Israeli Prime Minister, was concerned that the US Will sign a ceasefire without taking too much into account Israel's position. And then Netanyahu was trying to convince the President, we need more time. But at the end, the President agreed to a ceasefire. So the whole thing was presented as a joint war, Israel and the US Natalie, Mark and I spoke about this with you last time, about how Netanyahu was so pivotal in convincing Trump to get into the war. But once the war started, Netanyahu was sidelined to an extent, and Trump did not consult with him about when to end the war and in what terms.

[Devin]

Wow. So did Israel get a heads up that Trump was about to reach a ceasefire deal?

[Ronan Bergman]

Yeah, but only at the very last minute. This was very late on Tuesday, Israel time. They knew that the deal between the US and Iran that will be soon announced by the Pakistani Prime Minister includes a ceasefire in Lebanon. This is something they didn't like. Prime Minister Netanyahu tried to convince the President not to do that. But the terms of the ceasefire, as they found out, are not just about Iran, but are also about a total ceasefire in the war between Israel and Lebanon. Now, this is a totally different, different ballgame.

[Devin]

Why does it matter?

[Ronan Bergman]

Because the main military force in Lebanon, Hezbollah, are Iranian allies. They started shooting at Israel as a sort of solidarity, and under pressure from Iran, they wanted to have a small exchange of fire. Israel reacted with massive force. And after a short while, both sides found themselves totally deteriorated into all out war. And Israel, they said, we will not stop until we remove the threat. Remove the threat meaning dismantling Hezbollah. Disarming Hezbollah. So Hezbollah found itself not just showing solidarity to their comrades and brothers in Iran, but they realized that they in Lebanon, Hezbollah are fighting existential threat themselves. A total new front that Israel got itself totally mixed in.

[Natalie Kitrowev]

Right.

[Devin]

Israel got enmeshed in this war within a war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. And what you're saying is that Israel is frustrated with the ceasefire, not just because they feel that they weren't appropriately informed by their partner, the United States, about all of the terms of the agreement, but that one of the terms is a ceasefire in Lebanon.

[Ronan Bergman]

Yeah. And for a few hours there was nothing said in Israel or in the US that Lebanon is not included. And during these few hours, there were like, many, many phone calls and communication from Israel, from Jerusalem to the White House, and as I heard, basically asking Trump, President Trump, to let Israel do at least one more round. But Netanyahu was in a tight spot.

[Devin]

Hmm. So just to be clear about what you're saying, Ronan, what was understood by both Israel, the US And Iran was that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire deal originally, and Israel, because of that, is furiously trying to do diplomacy and trying to persuade Trump to go back on that, to allow them to keep attacking in Lebanon.

[Ronan Bergman]

Israel did not agree to the ceasefire. It accepted the ceasefire on Iran. It did not accept the ceasefire on Lebanon.

[Mark Mazzetti]

I think this is where you see one example of American Israeli interests diverging in the war in Iran.

[Devin]

Say more.

[Mark Mazzetti]

Well, I mean, for one, you saw that increasingly, President Trump and his advisers were growing frustrated that the war was, was not achieving the effects that they wanted it to achieve. Iran was not buckling. Right. And many in Washington were kind of looking for an exit, a way out of the war, a way towards a ceasefire, where in Israel there was a determination among Prime Minister Netanyahu and his advisors to keep this going longer, to make sure this would have a more conclusive end. And on this issue of Lebanon and Hezbollah, I mean, effectively, President Trump I don't think cares what happens in Lebanon and with Hezbollah if, if a ceasefire in Lebanon is part of an ultimate end to the war in Iran. I think President Trump is perfectly happy with that. But this is something that's far more difficult for Prime Minister Netanyahu to digest, as Ronan said. And this divergence is on full display on Wednesday, the day after the cease fire announcement.

[Natalie Kitrowev]

Today, Israel unleashing a sprawling barrage of

[Devin]

more than 100 attacks, attacks on the

[Natalie Kitrowev]

Lebanese capital, Beirut, the most since the

[Mark Mazzetti]

war began, when Israel launches a massive bombardment against Hezbollah. Over 100 targets in minutes.

[Devin]

We saw piles of charred cars at major intersections, mountains of rubble clogging the roads, entire apartment blocks raised to the ground, scores dead.

[Natalie Kitrowev]

But what we've really seen are horrific scenes of people, including children, being pulled, pulled from the rubble of residential building, grocery stores, shops.

[Mark Mazzetti]

And it sort of laid bare this idea that the US And Israel are not at all on the same page here.

[Devin]

Yeah, the scenes from that attack were just devastating. Was Trump aware that this attack was going to happen?

[Ronan Bergman]

Ronan, as far as I understand, this is pushed back by the official spokesperson. But as far as I understand, the Americans were aware that Israel is going to strike, but they were shocked at the extent of the strike. I heard that they complained to the Israelis, that they didn't know what they're going to bomb in the volume of the bombing, of course, that the collateral damage, the civilians that were killed as reported from Lebanon.

[Devin]

Whoa. You're saying the US did have some knowledge that this was going to occur, but didn't understand the magnitude of it, just how far Israel was prepared to go.

[Mark Mazzetti]

And you saw the reaction from Iran. Iranian leaders were furious about this and also recognize the leverage that they have. If Washington really wants to end the war in Iran, the Iranians can also demand an end of the war in Lebanon, and they can exploit this seam I just talked about in the US Israeli relationship. So that's what they did. They basically said, if you want to sit down and talk about an end of the war in Iran, well, Hezbollah and Lebanon are part of the ceasefire

[Devin]

as well, which underscores just how much this puts the entire ceasefire at risk, which is obviously against Trump's interests. So why do that if you're Israel?

[Mark Mazzetti]

Because Hezbollah and Lebanon are absolutely central to the idea that Prime Minister Netanyahu set forward about the security of Israel. As much as he talks about Iran and the threat from Iran, the threat from Hezbollah, as he's laid out, is far closer, obviously to home and central to his own political future.

[Devin]

We'll be right back.

[Vivian Wong]

I'm Vivian Wong. I'm a journalist at the New York Times. I've covered China for years and it's really, really hard to get information. I go on plenty of wild goose chases. One time I went to meet a woman who said that she had been the victim of horrific domestic violence and was trying to get support from the legal system. She lived in a super remote part of southwestern China. So I took a three hour flight from Beijing and several hours of train. Also. When I got there, local officials showed up, insisted on trying to interrupt the interview, and eventually they took her and her family away from their home, and so I had to leave. One of the things that makes the New York Times unique is that it's willing to pursue all sorts of stories, even the ones that might not go anywhere, because that's how you get the stories that no one else is telling. This kind of work is in decline, but that makes it even more important. If you think so too, consider subscribing to the New York Times.

[Devin]

Ronan, as you've told us, Israel was dead set against Lebanon being included in this ceasefire deal in the first place. So much so that they're willing to put the whole thing at risk.

[Natalie Kitrowev]

Risk over it.

[Devin]

I Want you to help deepen our understanding of why and particularly of what Mark just said, that Hezbollah and Lebanon

[Natalie Kitrowev]

are absolutely central to Netanyahu's argument about Israel's security. So just walk me through that argument.

[Ronan Bergman]

So people Forget that before October 7, it was Hezbollah who was considered to be the most fierce and threatening enemy of Israel. And Israel devoted so much preparing for such a war, they knew one day they will need to fight Kisbala. That the extent they. They didn't put enough attention to Hamas, then Hamas started October 7, Kisbala joined the war on a low level, and it accelerated through a year. And then in September, 24, Israel, the world, and they exploded some 3,500 pagers that were on the waist of Hezbollah operatives. For 10 days, they continued to hammer Hezbollah. They killed the commanders, they killed the troops, they exploded the bunkers. And Hezbollah had to stand down and agree them to a ceasefire with humiliating terms. This was all a extraordinary military intelligence, operational success. But as it happened in this war, Prime Minister Netanyahu was not satisfied just with this victory. He had to end more. And he basically said to the Israeli public, israel decimated Hezbollah. We removed the threat. You, all the refugees that fled the north of Israel at the beginning of the war, you can go back. It's safe.

[Devin]

Netanyahu is saying basically that as a result of this remarkable attack, started with the pagers, I think we all remember that, and then proceeded with these waves of strikes, taking out top Hezbollah leaders, the message was, it's now safe for Israelis who lived in the north of the country, which borders Lebanon, to. To go home.

[Ronan Bergman]

Yes. And so the reality happening in Lebanon was that Israel was attacking Hezbollah every few days, and Hezbollah did not react. And I think that gave. First of all, it gave the Israeli people the sense that Prime Minister Netanyahu was right. There's no Hezbollah. They're not reacting, they're not retaliating. And the second. It gave the military officials a sense that they can do to Hezbollah whatever they want, Hezbollah will stay deterred.

[Devin]

Wow.

[Ronan Bergman]

Well, turn out not to be that. Correct. Because once Hezbollah recovered and felt that this is now this is serious, this is about their own existence as an armed force in Lebanon, they started fighting.

[Devin]

You're talking about the strikes that Hezbollah carried out on Lebanon at Iran's urging that exposed the fact that Hezbollah had not, in fact, been decimated.

[Ronan Bergman]

Yes. The whole of the northern hemisphere of Israel started to be bombed again with rockets and missiles. And, you know, even this house, the house I'm speaking to you from, this is Tel Aviv, this is central Israel. We were bombed by Hezbollah. So the non existent, decimated Hezbollah was still able to send missiles from Lebanon to central Israel just few days ago. So suddenly the Israeli public realized that in Gaza, the war is not over. Hamas is controlling half of the Gaza Strip. In Iran, the war is not over. Iran is still sending missiles at Israel after Netanyahu said the problem is removed. And now they realize that Hezbollah, that Lebanon is the front, is not over because Hezbollah is shooting. So it's all like open fronts one after the other. After almost three years of war, it's still everything is open.

[Devin]

Okay, I wanna talk about that issue of open fronts. Is there an end point to this now ongoing war with Hezbollah? I understand that Netanyahu is perhaps trying to save face at home with the public that realized that maybe they were misled and finish the job against this militant group. But when will Israel feel it has done enough on that front?

[Ronan Bergman]

The main lesson that Israel learned, and it's not just Netanyahu, you'll hear this from the lowest rank officer of the IDF or any other employee of the Israeli defense establishment. The lesson they learned from October 7th is never let a hostile force grow and get too strong once this force declares that its goal is to eliminate the state of Israel. So the end game from Israel is to dismantle Hezbollah, disarm Hezbollah. This can be done in only three ways. It's either Hezbollah does it out of its own will.

[Devin]

Unlikely.

[Ronan Bergman]

Yeah, not very second is that the Lebanese government will go in full force, take the weapon and enforce its sovereignty over Hezbollah. Now this is something that the Lebanese government committed to do in the agreement of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon from September October 2024, they failed. So the only alternative is that Israel will conquer Lebanon. And is mental kisbala something that Israel doesn't want to do? They tried that in 1982 and it ended up very badly. And in the meantime, just to give some sense of security to the communities in the north, they create a buffer zone, a strip inside Lebanon where they'll have forces that will divide between citizens and the operatives of Hezbollah at the other side. So this is about punishing Israeli enemies, showing strength.

[Devin]

For local consumption, this buffer zone requires Israel occupying part of Lebanon's territory. Right. Lebanese land. The implication, of course, is that Israel plans, or some Israeli officials would like to see real massive destruction in parts of Lebanon continue.

[Ronan Bergman]

And it's happening as we speak.

[Devin]

Okay, so it seems very clear why Israel is so invested in this. I want to talk now about Iran. And why Iran is digging in over this and threatening to hold up the strait over these Israeli attacks. Ronan, is it just because Hezbollah has been such an important proxy for them in the region for so long?

[Ronan Bergman]

I think even much deeper. Shortly after the Khomeini clerical revolution in 1979, Iran started to invest in proxies in forces and organizations outside of Iran. And the first one and the closest ally was Hezbollah. They founded Hezbollah in 1983, 84, and then invested so much for basically three reasons. One is that they come from the same blood. They go to the same religious schools in the holy city of Qom and Najev. They are relatives. They are Shiites. And it's not just about Iran and Hezbollah. The word that we are looking for is muqawamah. Muqawamah in Arabic means resistance. Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah and the Houthis and Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the militias in Iraq and in Syria, they call themselves Jabal Mukawama, the axis of resistance. And this case is a test of how much Iran is willing to risk in order to save the other partner of this axis. This is the core of their partnership, the core of their brotherhood. And so Israel wants to break the alignment. Israel wants to destroy the axis. And I think that the next few days or weeks are going to be quite significant in the history of the war, the regional war between Israel and the axis of resistance.

[Devin]

All right, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this all sounds like a very difficult situation to resolve. Mark, I want to turn back to you and ask, given this history, what would a path to a resolution even look like here?

[Mark Mazzetti]

Well, there's no easy path. And you could see at the end of last week, everyone sort of groping around trying to figure out how to sort of handle all of these thorny issues at once. There was an announcement that Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israeli government would begin discussions with the Lebanese government about the future of the conflict. But of course, the Lebanese government is not speaking for Hezbollah, and no one's dealing and negotiating directly with Hezbollah. So that appeared to be a little bit of a fig leaf to sort of appear something was happening where no one really expects much out of that. And given that all of these issues are so closely stitched together, it does seem like this is all very intractable at the moment.

[Devin]

When we've talked in the past, guys, you've both said that while a lot of people view Netanyahu as having a certain amount of sway over Trump, you've made it clear that Netanyahu does fear Trump. He does acquiesce to his demands. So can't Trump force Israel to stop carrying out strikes that are threatening this truce? I guess my question is, who is actually in charge here?

[Ronan Bergman]

No doubt Prime Minister Netanyahu acknowledged that in a speech I think three weeks after the beginning of the war. While at the beginning he said, we are partners, mutual partners. Then he said, under the leadership of President Trump, he said something that was clear to any soldier, any officer, any general in the idf, that this war will end only when Trump says it's over. So it's clear that if President Trump decides that something would happen and be very strict with, that the prime Minister of Israel would not go to overt confrontation with him. No, that's one of the things that he very strict with. He won't.

[Mark Mazzetti]

Yeah. We've talked a lot about how instrumental Prime Minister Netanyahu was in convincing President Trump to go to the war against Iran. But ultimately, as Ronan said, in this relationship, Trump holds the leverage in ending it and he can tell Netanyahu when the war will end.

[Devin]

So should we assume based on that that Trump has not actually pulled that ultimate lever yet?

[Mark Mazzetti]

Well, I think it's not clear to Trump yet that Hezbollah and Lebanon are the number one sticking point preventing a deal with Iran. But the more Hezbollah and Lebanon become central to whether this war ends or not, the more I think the United States and Trump will lean on Netanyahu to end the campaign.

[Devin]

I want to just end by taking us back to the beginning of this war when Trump decided to do something that no American president had ever agreed to before, which was teaming up with Israel to go to war with Iran. We're now in a situation where it's unclear whether the two countries that got into this war together are actually on the same page about getting out of it. And I just want to ask, like, is this just the inevitable result of getting into a joint war with a partner that doesn't share your long term goals?

[Mark Mazzetti]

I think that's partly right. There are many things the Trump administration and Benjamin Netanyahu are aligned on in terms of what they see as important to the security of the Middle East. However, once a war begins, things go out of your control. And as we've seen, Iran has not responded the way that the United States and Israel had hoped it would. Iran has shown no sign that it is eager to back down. And I think there's also a sense for Netanyahu that he's not going to get another chance to do this. A war against Iran has been Netanyahu's obsession for decades. And now he's got the United States president leading the war. And once that ends, it's probably not happening again. And so he sees this as his last, best chance to achieve these goals in the Middle East. And he's going to be determined that nothing ends before he gets most of what he wanted.

[Ronan Bergman]

Which is why Netanyahu and his team and ministers, when hearing the announcement from Islamabad that negotiation fell apart, they said, ha, you see, this is President Trump that we like, that is not giving up, that is going full force. And they are hoping we'll go back to war soon.

[Devin]

And so this thing keeps going on. Well, Mark, Ronan, thank you so much.

[Mark Mazzetti]

Thanks, Allie.

[Ronan Bergman]

Thanks, Devin.

[Natalie Kitrowev]

On Sunday, the US Military said that it would blockade any ships entering and departing Iranian ports beginning Monday, but would allow other ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The move was a step back from Trump's earlier promise to block all traffic through the strait. In response, the speaker of Iran's parliament directly addressed American consumers, saying, quote, soon you'll be nostalgic for four to five dollars gas. We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. Eric Swalwell, a Democratic congressman from the Bay, said on Sunday that he was suspending his campaign for California governor in the wake of allegations of sexual assault and misconduct. The accusations were published Friday in articles by the San Francisco Chronicle and cnn,

[Devin]

and they prompted a wave of rescinded

[Natalie Kitrowev]

endorsements and a criminal investigation. Swalwell repeatedly denied the accusations and said in an X post on Saturday that he was sorry for, quote, mistakes in judgment and promised to fight what he called false allegations. And Victor Orban, the right wing populist who's been prime minister of Hungary for 16 years, conceded that he lost the country's general election on Sunday. Orban was such a staunch ally of President Trump's that Vice President J.D. vance flew to Budapest last week to rally with him. But Vance's appearance didn't help Orban avert a landslide defeat to the center right opposition, which is led by a former Orban loyalist, Peter Magyar. Magyar campaigned on an anti corruption message and promised to improve relations with the European Union, which had been strained over Orban's pro Russia stance. Today's episode was produced by Asta Chaturvedi, Michael Simon Johnson and Rachelle Banja. It was edited by Rachel Quester and Patricia Willins and contains music by Dan Powell and Pat McCusker. Our theme music is by Wonderly. This episode was engineered by Chris Wood. That's it for the daily. I'm Natalie Kitroweth. See you tomorrow.