Summary of "Will the U.S. Join Israel’s War With Iran?" – The Daily, June 18, 2025
Hosted by Rachel Abrams, The Daily delves into the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, focusing on the potential involvement of the United States under President Donald Trump. In an in-depth interview, reporter Jonathan Swan explores the dynamics shaping this critical geopolitical situation.
1. Introduction to the U.S.-Israel-Iran Conflict
Rachel Abrams opens the episode by highlighting the central question: “How far will President Trump go to entangle the United States in a new war?” [00:31]. The discussion sets the stage for understanding the shifting geopolitical alliances and the potential for U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict.
2. President Trump's Shifting Stance on Military Engagement
Jonathan Swan explains that Trump's initial stance was against entering another endless Middle Eastern war. However, his consistent view remained that “Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear bomb” [01:50]. The shift began after Trump left office in January 2021, amidst reports from the Justice Department alleging Iranian retaliation against Trump, including assassination attempts and cyber-attacks on his aides.
Notable Quote:
“Donald Trump was left in a position where he was not driving events. So in that sense, you could say, yes, absolutely. Netanyahu was driving this train. Trump was reacting to events.” [26:24] – Jonathan Swan
3. Netanyahu’s Push for a Military Solution
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has longstanding ambitions to dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities through military means. During Trump's first term, Netanyahu received substantial support, leading to expectations that a Trump administration would back aggressive actions. However, Trump appointed Steve Witkoff, a real estate developer with no foreign policy experience, as the special envoy to the Middle East, signaling a preference for diplomatic solutions [04:04].
4. Diplomatic Efforts and Back-Channel Negotiations
Despite Netanyahu's military aspirations, Trump prioritized diplomacy. Swan notes that Trump actively engaged in back-channel communications with Iran, reminiscent of his approach with North Korea. In March, Trump sent a personal letter to the Iranian Ayatollah, emphasizing his desire to avoid war while simultaneously expressing the capacity to enforce severe consequences [08:59].
Notable Quote:
“I don't want to blow you off the map. I want a deal.” [09:31] – Message from Trump’s letter to the Ayatollah
Negotiations included representatives like Witkoff and Michael Anton from the State Department traveling to Oman to discuss potential terms, culminating in a U.S. proposal in May that sought to halt Iran's nuclear enrichment in exchange for civilian nuclear power provisions [09:19].
5. Netanyahu’s Opposition to Diplomatic Progress
Netanyahu remained unsatisfied with the diplomatic approach, pressing for the provision of U.S. military assets such as bunker-busting bombs needed to destroy deeply buried nuclear sites like Fordo [05:27]. Trump's firm stance on pursuing diplomacy led him to refuse Netanyahu’s requests for immediate military support, aiming to hold off Iran strikes while negotiations continued [07:54].
6. Intelligence Revelations and Escalation of Tensions
In May, U.S. intelligence revealed that Netanyahu was likely to proceed with a military strike against Iran, irrespective of American support. This intelligence assessment alarmed the Trump administration, prompting discussions ranging from restraining Netanyahu to contemplating direct U.S. military intervention [11:35].
Notable Quote:
“America is now engaged in a war right now at 5pm on Tuesday. It's a fairly limited engagement.” [26:46] – Jonathan Swan
7. Trump's Increasing Frustration and Signs of Military Involvement
As negotiations faltered, Trump’s frustration grew. On Air Force One, he expressed doubt about Iran’s willingness to negotiate, signaling a shift from optimism to skepticism about diplomatic resolutions [13:52]. Subsequent communications from Trump included aggressive rhetoric towards Iran, such as declaring “complete and total control of the skies over Iran” and threatening “unconditional surrender” [23:03].
8. The Bombing Campaign and U.S. Involvement
When Israel launched a successful initial bombing campaign against Iranian targets, Trump's administration maintained a public stance distancing the U.S. from direct involvement, despite clandestine support like intelligence sharing [20:19]. However, internal discussions and Trump’s public statements suggested he was contemplating deeper military engagement, including the deployment of heavy ordinance like the 30,000-pound bunker-busting bombs [24:45].
Notable Quote:
“We know exactly where the Supreme Leader is hiding. He's an easy target.” [23:10] – Trump's statement threatening Iran’s leadership
9. Congressional Response and Domestic Implications
The potential for increased U.S. involvement reignited debates in Congress regarding war powers. A bipartisan effort saw both a Democrat and a Republican introducing a resolution requiring congressional approval before U.S. troops could engage in attacks against Iran [29:35]. Simultaneously, House Republicans proposed significant tax cuts and federal program slashes, which the Congressional Budget Office predicted would exacerbate the national debt without substantial economic growth benefits [29:35].
10. Conclusion: Uncertainty and Future Implications
The episode underscores the precariousness of the situation, with Trump’s administration teetering between diplomatic efforts and the brink of military escalation. Swan notes the unpredictable nature of Trump’s decision-making, emphasizing that “America is now engaged in a war right now” [26:46], albeit a limited one with the potential to spiral into a larger regional conflict.
Final Quote:
“We're heading down a cycle of uncertainty that we're going to have to confront.” [27:49] – Jonathan Swan
Key Takeaways:
- President Trump initially favored diplomacy to prevent another Middle Eastern war but faced internal and external pressures pushing towards military action against Iran.
- Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel remains determined to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, often clashing with Trump's diplomatic approach.
- Intelligence reports indicate a high likelihood of Israeli strikes on Iran, with Trump administration contemplating deeper U.S. involvement.
- Domestic political debates highlight the tension between executive and legislative branches over war powers and fiscal policies.
- The situation remains fluid, with the potential for significant escalation depending on Trump's decisions and regional responses.
This summary encapsulates the critical discussions from the episode, providing a comprehensive overview of the complex interactions between U.S. leadership, Israeli ambitions, and Iranian responses in the context of nuclear non-proliferation and regional stability.