30 for 30 Podcasts: Chasing Basketball Heaven

Summary

Chasing Basketball Heaven: A Detailed Summary

Episode: 30 for 30 Podcasts: Chasing Basketball Heaven
Release Date: July 22, 2025
Hosts: Rich Levine & Nick Oldschuler
Voice of Martin Manley: Craig Kilborn

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1. Introduction: The Myth of the Three-Point Revolution

The podcast opens by challenging the widely held belief that the three-pointer, popularized by Stephen Curry, has fundamentally altered basketball. Instead, hosts Rich Levine and Nick Oldschuler introduce listeners to Martin Manley, an obscure yet pivotal figure in NBA analytics whose early advocacy for the three-point shot laid the groundwork for today's game.

Rich Levine [00:00]: “You've seen the headlines. You've heard the debates. The three pointer has ruined basketball. Has it though?”

2. Meet Martin Manley: The Forgotten Pioneer

Martin Manley is portrayed as the "Bill James of basketball," a pioneer in basketball analytics whose insights were ahead of his time. Despite his significant contributions, Manley remains largely unrecognized in mainstream basketball circles.

Nick Oldschuler [00:53]: “Martin Manley was definitely odd. He slept every other day for years. He only drank Pepsi for the last decade of his life.”

Manley's unique condition, synesthesia, allowed him to perceive numbers as colors, fueling his obsession with basketball statistics and efficiency. His foundational work, encapsulated in his book Basketball Heaven, advocated for maximizing every moment on the court through strategic three-point shooting.

Rich Levine [01:19]: “His vision would increase space and emphasize efficiency. He believed if you weren't maximizing the potential of every single moment, you were wasting it.”

3. The Evolution of the Three-Point Line

The hosts delve into the historical context of the three-point line, tracing its origins and the resistance it faced within the NBA. Initially introduced in rival leagues like the ABL and ABA, the three-pointer struggled to gain acceptance in the mainstream NBA until gradual shifts in strategy and analytics began to change perceptions.

Nick Oldschuler [02:22]: “The predominance of three pointers is the most controversial aspect of today's game. But they were barely taken in the 1980s.”

4. Early Advocates and the ABA Experiment

The American Basketball Association (ABA) was an early adopter of the three-point line, using it as a marketing tool to differentiate itself from the NBA. Figures like Brian Taylor, the first player to lead the NBA in three-point shooting, exemplified the potential of long-range shooting, though his efforts were initially met with skepticism.

Brian Taylor [17:03]: “I figured thinking about it in terms of what a 42% equivalent would be for a two point shot and it's up there, you know, 42% is closing in on 60%.”

Despite promising beginnings, the ABA's implementation of the three-point line was short-lived, lasting only a season and a half before merging with the NBA in 1976. The NBA's reluctance to fully embrace the three-pointer contributed to lingering stagnation in the sport's evolution.

5. The Pivotal 1989 All-Star Weekend

A turning point in the narrative occurs during the 1989 NBA All-Star Weekend in Houston, where Martin Manley is given a platform to present his revolutionary ideas. During the event, Dale Ellis, a prominent three-point shooter, wins the three-point contest, unknowingly exemplifying Manley's theories on efficiency and space management.

Martin Manley [40:27]: “Never again would I be in the dark about which player really deserved the headlines.”

Manley's presentation was likened to Bill James' impact on baseball, highlighting the potential for analytics to transform basketball strategies fundamentally.

Fred Hickman [35:07]: “He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball.”

6. The Legacy of Brian Taylor and Dale Ellis

Brian Taylor’s early adoption and success with the three-point shot demonstrated the statistical advantage it could provide, but it wasn’t until Dale Ellis embraced and refined the three-pointer that the concept began to gain real traction within the NBA.

Dale Ellis [29:09]: “After shooting from that distance, I didn't quite get why more players weren't shooting from there.”

Ellis's collaboration with coach Paul Silas initially stifled his three-point attempts, but his relocation to Seattle and renewed focus on long-range shooting led to record-breaking performances and increased acceptance of the three-pointer as a viable strategy.

Dale Ellis [31:25]: “I ended up in the start lineup and threw the ball away a couple times... I decided I'm going to shoot the basketball.”

7. Martin Manley’s Climactic Moment

During the 1989 All-Star Weekend, Martin Manley was introduced on national television as the "Bill James of basketball," offering a critical endorsement of his work. This moment symbolized the beginning of a paradigm shift in how basketball valued and utilized the three-point shot, moving towards a more analytically driven approach.

Rich Levine [35:22]: “This was his moment in the spotlight, in the center of the Astrodome.”

8. Conclusion: The Unseen Architect of Modern Basketball

The podcast concludes by acknowledging Martin Manley’s enduring yet underappreciated impact on modern basketball. His early advocacy for the three-point shot and efficiency analytics paved the way for the NBA's current reliance on long-range shooting, fundamentally altering the game's dynamics and strategies.

Martin Manley [40:58]: “My dream, of course, was and is that not only I could be enlightened, but so could basketball fans everywhere.”

The hosts emphasize the importance of recognizing and appreciating the contributions of figures like Manley who operate behind the scenes, shaping the future of sports through innovation and relentless pursuit of improvement.

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Notable Quotes with Attributions and Timestamps

• Rich Levine [00:00]: “You've seen the headlines. You've heard the debates. The three pointer has ruined basketball. Has it though?”

• Nick Oldschuler [00:53]: “Martin Manley was definitely odd. He slept every other day for years. He only drank Pepsi for the last decade of his life.”

• Brian Taylor [17:03]: “I figured thinking about it in terms of what a 42% equivalent would be for a two point shot and it's up there, you know, 42% is closing in on 60%.”

• Martin Manley [40:27]: “Never again would I be in the dark about which player really deserved the headlines.”

• Dale Ellis [29:09]: “After shooting from that distance, I didn't quite get why more players weren't shooting from there.”

• Whispers of Change [35:07]: “He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball.”

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Key Insights and Takeaways

• Pioneering Analytics: Martin Manley's work predated the modern analytics movement in sports, laying the intellectual foundation for evaluating player efficiency and strategic shot selection.

• Resistance to Change: The NBA's initial reluctance to adopt the three-point shot highlights a broader resistance to data-driven strategy shifts in professional sports.

• Impact of Individual Innovators: Figures like Brian Taylor and Dale Ellis played crucial roles in demonstrating the practical benefits of the three-point shot, bridging the gap between theoretical analytics and on-court execution.

• Cultural Shift in Basketball: The eventual embrace of the three-pointer transformed basketball aesthetics and strategies, prioritizing spacing, shooting accuracy, and versatility over traditional big-man dominance.

• Recognition and Legacy: The story underscores the importance of acknowledging behind-the-scenes contributors whose innovations significantly impact the evolution of sports.

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Chasing Basketball Heaven serves as a tribute to Martin Manley’s visionary approach to basketball, shedding light on the often-overlooked individuals who drive progress and innovation in sports. Through meticulous research and engaging storytelling, Rich Levine and Nick Oldschuler provide a compelling narrative that redefines the understanding of basketball’s strategic evolution.

Transcript

[Rich Levine]

You've seen the headlines. You've heard the debates. The three pointer has ruined basketball. Has it though? It's a tired conversation that often blames Stephen Curry. But we here at Metal Arc crack the code. We found the guy you can blame for the current state of the NBA. What you're about to hear is a story about one of the founding fathers of NBA analytics, a guy who is known in some circles as the Bill James of basketball. Two things make him fascinating. He's completely forgotten. No one knows him. Daryl Morey doesn't know him. No one at MIT Sloan analytics knows him. And yet there are many people who don't follow basketball but do know him because of his second act, when he turned his obsession with efficiency into a roadmap for perfecting his own death and then followed through with it. Dark Turn. That was our pitch to 30 for 30. We teamed up with ESPN and Adam McKay's HyperObject to tell this story, and this is the result. Basketball Heaven. Hope you enjoy.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Some might think it's odd for a man to release the rights of his greatest work, but not Martin Manley.

[Martin Manley]

I, Martin Manley, being the creator and owner of this site, neither hold nor retain any claim or copyright on any part of this. Rather, I release all rights to this work, making it public domain. Anyone can do with it whatever they wish.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Martin Manley was definitely odd. He slept every other day for years. He only drank Pepsi for the last decade of his life. He wore a fedora at all times, except in church or if he was sleeping. And he was obsessive about basketball. Not the action, but the stats. For all his eccentricities, Martin also had.

[Rich Levine]

A superpower, but not the cape and tight sort of thing. His power dealt with numbers. Whenever he looked at them, they appeared across the color spectrum from Celtic green to Laker gold. It's called synesthesia. It's a condition where senses are mistaken for each other. So imagine tasting words or seeing sounds. It can trip you up unless you harness it. And once Martin Manley did, he figured out a way to completely change the game of basketball. His vision would increase space and emphasize efficiency. He believed if you weren't maximizing the potential of every single moment, you were wasting it.

[Nick Oldschuler]

A key part of his vision. We should be shooting more threes. The predominance of three pointers is the most controversial aspect of today's game. But they were barely taken in the 1980s. Back then, the game was vastly different than the one you see today. It was a bunch of tall guys fighting for position near the hoop clogging the lane, the space behind the ark. Almost an afterthought.

[Rich Levine]

And that's where the game might have stayed if not for our hero. He saw the numbers behind the game dancing like the colors in a kaleidoscope. It was pure heaven. A basketball heaven. So he made it his mission to elevate the game into the clouds.

[Nick Oldschuler]

What's crazy is Martin Manley actually did it. In a way, at least. The trouble is, his story didn't quite turn out the way he imagined.

[Rich Levine]

But it ended exactly how he planned.

[Nick Oldschuler]

And he even got his wish for someone to tell his story.

[Rich Levine]

That would be us. A couple of writers who lived through the history. Two basketball nerds who can still tell you which old NBA players share our birthdays and used to put ourselves to sleep at night reading the same old NBA almanac year after year.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Which is not how you're supposed to use an almanac. So it's safe to say we have our own eccentricities.

[Rich Levine]

We can sympathize with a man like Martin. I mean, in some frightening ways, even relate to him. We trailed this guy for more than a decade. He haunted our thoughts and altered the way we live. He also inspired us to tell his story.

[Nick Oldschuler]

So let's get this thing going. Let's talk about where the game is today and how it's miles apart from its origins. And let's trace the history of its changes from the peach basket to the three point line, which isn't even a line. It's an imperfect arc, which is a hell of a metaphor for this story.

[Rich Levine]

From 30 for 30 podcasts. I'm Rich Levine.

[Nick Oldschuler]

I'm Nick Oldschuler, and this is Chasing.

[Rich Levine]

Basketball Heaven, episode one, the imperfect Arc.

[Commentator]

They do have a timeout. Decide not to use a Curry way down top.

[Rich Levine]

Oh, what a shot from Curry.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Today, the NBA is massive. It's an industry with $76 billion in media deals and growing markets around the world. But the league's beginnings were humble, the contests just something to stage between hockey games. The NBA evolves slowly on its road to success.

[Rich Levine]

Nick and I have watched a lot of that process play out, both as basketball fans and writers covering the NBA for more than 40 years. Whether sitting in the stands, on press row, at home, on the couch, or just about anywhere on our phones, the biggest change we, and I think just about every fan has seen, is the explosion of three pointers. Just to give you an idea, back in 1984, when Nick and I were just adorable little massholes, the Celtics played the Lakers in the NBA Finals. Over the seven game series, the teams took a total of 42 three pointers. In the 2024 Finals in only a five game series, the Celtics and Mavericks combined to shoot 359 three pointers.

[Nick Oldschuler]

In March 2025, the Lakers and newly acquired Luka Don came to Boston for a battle with the defending champion Celtics. Rich and I were there.

[Rich Levine]

What did we say? We're gonna guess how many three pointers were shot tonight. Did you say 80?

[Nick Oldschuler]

I said 80.

[Rich Levine]

Combined. Combined.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Combined 80. I felt a little silly after that. Guess 80 seeming like a ludicrous number. I was very close. They shot 78. Back in that 84 season, the Celtics and Lakers combined to attempt 455 threes. In 2025, both teams combined nearly 7,000.

[Commentator]

Tatum's long three pointer.

[Nick Oldschuler]

That's good.

[Commentator]

Way downtown is Tatum.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Basketball itself is over 100 years old. And in the beginning back in the 1890s, there was no three point line. Actually the game was more ultimate frisbee than what we know today. The player with the ball wasn't even allowed to move. So no crossovers. And safe to say no dunking either.

[Rich Levine]

Today the big basketball buzzword is efficiency. Back then it was anything but. As many know, the first hoop was a peach basket. But did you know it was over a decade before anyone thought to cut a hole in the bottom after every single score, they had to stop the action, bring out a ladder. Not very exciting unless you're a aspiring firefighter. Also not very efficient.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Love ladders.

[Rich Levine]

I can imagine, Nick. You're the one guy in the stands who just starts clapping as they bring the ladder out.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Woo hoo. Back then, height was king and the game seemed trapped in a thicket of very tall people hanging out under the hoop.

[Rich Levine]

So rulemakers began a systematic effort to push them away.

[Nick Oldschuler]

In 1935, the NCAA introduced a three second rule.

[Rich Levine]

This stated that if a player dropped their gum on the court but still wanted to chew it, they just had to pick it up very quickly.

[Nick Oldschuler]

That's more of an unwritten rule. The one I'm referring to prohibited offensive players from standing in the lane or by the hoop for longer than three seconds at a time. Then in 1944, the college game identified goaltending as an issue and banned it. The rule made it illegal to touch the ball in its downward flight or while just above the rim.

[Rich Levine]

This was a reaction to the early giants of the sport like Oklahoma State 7 footer Bob Kurland, credited as the first man to dunk in a college game and also 6 foot 10 DePaul center George Mikan. The first truly dominant big man, and I should say the first to rock a mean pair of rec specs.

[Commentator]

Mikan is still a man to reckon with, as this one hander proves. A great star giving his all after a long layoff.

[Nick Oldschuler]

With this new role, Mikan could no longer jump up and swat away shots falling toward the hoop.

[Rich Levine]

In 1949, two rival professional leagues, the BAA and NBL, merged to form the National Basketball Association. And before long, the NBA had its own Mikan problem.

[Commentator]

It's Minneapolis ball. Schaefer passes to Mikan in the pivot and the big center dribbles in and scores.

[Rich Levine]

In that 1949 season, the big man averaged 2027 points a game.

[Nick Oldschuler]

And this is a time when only one other player even averaged 20.

[Rich Levine]

And Mikan's Minneapolis Lakers cruised to the first ever NBA title.

[Nick Oldschuler]

That next season, teams decided the only way to beat Mikan was to prevent the Lakers from having the ball in the first place. Good strategy, horrible aesthetics.

[Rich Levine]

In one particularly boring game, the Fort Wayne Pistons held the ball for minutes at a time on their way to a 1918 victory over Mikan's Lakers. It's still the lowest scoring game in NBA history.

[Nick Oldschuler]

The league took action first. In 1951, they created the Mikan rule, which widened the paint under the hoop from 6 to 12ft in conjunction with the 3 second rule. The hope was an expanded key would force big men Farther away. In 1954, to combat the stalling tactics, the NBA introduced the 24 second shot clock.

[Rich Levine]

And while the shot clock did improve the pace of the game, efforts to move players farther away from the basket didn't have as much impact as they hoped.

[Nick Oldschuler]

The reward for scoring from 2ft out or 10ft out or 25ft was all just two points. So you might as well be closer where the shots are easier.

[Rich Levine]

Basically, the NBA needed a spark, a shot of spontaneity. A need that grew steadily as The Celtics won 11 of 13 championships through the late 50s and 60s behind 6 foot 10 Bill Russell, dominant big man and the greatest defensive player the league has ever seen.

[Commentator]

The miraculous Boston Celtics become the NBA champions for the 11th time in 13 years.

[Rich Levine]

Defense doesn't really sell tickets. Even prolific scoring gets old. Want an example of NBA popularity in the 60s? When Wilt Chamberlain had his 100 point game in 1962, there were barely 4,000 fans in the stands. The game wasn't televised. There wasn't a single photographer working. The only reason we even have that legendary snapshot of Wilt with the number 100 written on scrap paper is because an off duty AP photographer named Paul Vathis happened to be at the game with his son. With the league growing stale, it was ripe for competition. In 1961, Abe Saperstein, founder of the Harlem Globetrotters, started the American Basketball league.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Standing just 5 foot 3, Saperstein is the shortest man in the Basketball hall of Fame. And his idea to compete with the NBA was to empower the smaller player. So he introduced the first professional three point line. Before that season, he walked out onto the court with a roll of tape and measured an arc just shy of 24ft.

[Rich Levine]

Okay, I gotta ask why just shy of 24ft?

[Nick Oldschuler]

I will tell you. It's because it just felt right. Honestly. His son Jerry is quoted as saying, they just arbitrarily drew lines. There's no scientific basis. The three and the league didn't catch on though. And the ABL only lasted a season and a half.

[Rich Levine]

However, come 1967, the NBA finally had some serious competition. The American Basketball association, or the aba. Founded on energy and creativity, marketing itself as professional basketball. With the volume turned up, they replaced the standard brown leather ball with the now iconic red, white and blue one. The league would feature high flying stars like Dr. J, Julius Irving and the Iceman George Gervin. They had a slam dunk contest and also a three point line.

[Commentator]

The ABA feels that this extra incentive to shoot from far to out causes the defense to open up. Create a more exciting game for the fans. Give the team that's behind an opportunity to close the gap quickly with long three point shots.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Gives a little man more of a.

[Commentator]

Chance to balance up his value in.

[Nick Oldschuler]

The game compared to the big man.

[Rich Levine]

Sure, he was part gimmick, but in the ABA, the three point line was also a selling point. Threes were a particular favorite of league commissioner. Wouldn't you know it, the man with the rec specs, George Mikan. Here's one quote from Mikan in a history of the ABA called loose balls. We called it the home run because the three pointer was exactly that. It brought fans out of their seats.

[Nick Oldschuler]

The three point line, that imperfect arc awarding 50% more points. Now players had a reason to move farther away from the basket. And as an added bonus, guys like Irving and Gervin had a suddenly wide open court.

[Commentator]

Julia serving on the run, Dr. James.

[Nick Oldschuler]

With players spread out, the key was harder to clog driving. Lanes opened up and the game flowed in a way it hadn't before. But when the two leagues finally merged in 1976, and that opportunity for change was there. The three point line didn't make the cut.

[Rich Levine]

According to Angela Drosos, then owner of the San Antonio spurs, the NBA moguls didn't want the three point shot. Celtics president Red Auerbach hated it. He had everybody up in arms against the play.

[Nick Oldschuler]

And guess what? NBA ratings got worse. By the late 70s, national TV ratings were down 26%. The Finals weren't even shown live but on tape delay. And the league's games on CBS were routinely pummeled by boxing. Attendance was down in major markets like New York, Chicago and even la.

[Rich Levine]

And that brings us to what is arguably the most important season in the history of professional basketball. 1979.

[Commentator]

We make a lot about Magic Johnson and Larry bird.

[Nick Oldschuler]

There are two reasons why 1979 is so vital. One you're familiar with even if you're not a big basketball fan. Magic Johnson and Larry Bird entered the league fresh off their college national championship showdown. These young rival superstars generated a lot of excitement.

[Rich Levine]

Very excited about the big crowd and.

[Dale Ellis]

About being here in Boston for my first time.

[Nick Oldschuler]

It's going to be a big game.

[Rich Levine]

A lot of enthusiasts throughout the crowd and I just hope the best team wins today. But what has gone unremembered or more accurately undervalued is the second reason 1979 deserves some love. Three years after the merger, the NBA adopted one of the ABA's marketing ploys on a one year trial basis. The three pointer.

[Nick Oldschuler]

It happened on October 12, the first night of the 79 season. At the old Boston Garden. The Celtics hosted the Houston Rockets. Of course we remember it as Bird's first game.

[Rich Levine]

Everyone at the Garden marveled at Larry Bird's every move. But it was a play about eight minutes into the game where his debut was briefly overshadowed by teammate crowd. Chris Ford, a floppy haired, mustachioed fella.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Who by the way, looks a lot more like my geometry teacher than he ever did a professional shooting guard.

[Rich Levine]

Or is it more that a professional shooting guard used to look more like a geometry teacher.

[Commentator]

Bird back over to Archibald. Archibald takes once, holds it up. Tops of Ford a step back pop. It's a three point play.

[Nick Oldschuler]

It's Ford a three point play. The first three point in NBA history.

[Rich Levine]

But here's the funny thing. It was Boston's only three point make of the game. The Celtics didn't hit another until a week later. For that whole season, Boston barely attempted 400 threes. In 2025, they took nearly 4,000.

[Nick Oldschuler]

So how did we get to where teams are routinely shooting thousands of three pointers a year. Let's start with a look at Brian Taylor, the first player to lead the NBA in threes. Back in the aba. He was Julius Erving's wingman on the nets and saw firsthand how long range threes opened up the court for the doctor. His perspective is something most execs, coaches and players couldn't see.

[Rich Levine]

That first NBA season with the new line, Taylor hit A league leading 90 threes for the San Diego Clippers.

[Commentator]

Here's Taylor. Boy, he just sets up automatically outside.

[Rich Levine]

That three point play all by himself. Taylor eclipsed the season three point totals of 19 of 22 NBA teams. And when we caught up with him, the first thing he noticed was my hat.

[Brian Taylor]

So you're a Celtic fan, huh?

[Rich Levine]

I am, yes. And wanted to know if I had the old Larry Bird sneakers to match.

[Brian Taylor]

You got the 3/4 black converse on.

[Rich Levine]

I know, man, I wish. I wonder what one of those would go for now.

[Brian Taylor]

I know, right?

[Rich Levine]

It's unbelievable. I mean, I mean you know as well as anyone, but you think about the shoes, guys playing now and back then with the Chuck Taylors or those Converse, like there wasn't so much that much support, was there?

[Brian Taylor]

Oh, there was no support. I wonder how we were able to jump so high. I didn't start jumping high until I got my first pair of Adidas though when I was in high school. So you know, we really were in the vanguard of wearing Nikes in the late 70s. And you had to get a new pair of Nikes almost every game because they spread so quickly.

[Rich Levine]

A first round pick out of Princeton in the 1972 ABA Draft, Taylor lived through the initial history of the three point line. Though at first, like everybody else, he barely noticed. What he loved about the ABA was the colorful ball, not the three point line.

[Brian Taylor]

I didn't even care. I didn't even think about the three for several years in the aba. As a matter of fact, I look at my statistics and I didn't shoot a lot of threes.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Over his first three years from 1972 to 1975, Taylor attempted less than half a three pointer a game.

[Brian Taylor]

So I had to come to grips with whether it was a good shot or not. And so I gave a lot of thought to the mathematics and the analytics of it. And it took me three years to really feel comfortable shooting that shot. Actually the year that I led the ABA in three point shooting, still didn't shoot a lot of threes. I just shot a really high percentage. But I think I shot like 42%.

[Nick Oldschuler]

He thought correctly. He shot 42.1 to be exact.

[Brian Taylor]

Yeah, I figured thinking about it in terms of what a 42% equivalent would be for a two point shot and it's up there, you know, 42% is closing in on 60%.

[Nick Oldschuler]

What Taylor means is if he attempted 100 three pointers and hit 42, which would be 42%, that would be worth 126 points. If he shot 102 pointers and hit 60 for 60%, that would only be worth 120 points. So shooting 42% from three is actually better than shooting 60% from two.

[Rich Levine]

Taylor made the leap to the NBA when the leagues merged in 1976. So when the NBA added the three point line in 1979, he was already familiar with the math. But as he told us, the real reason he led the league in threes was his head coach.

[Brian Taylor]

I was fortunate enough to have the late Gene Hsu who was analytic thinking and saw that my Brian could shoot from that distance and we'll get one extra point. So he gave me the green light in 1979 to shoot that shot.

[Commentator]

Three up to Taylor and Taylor pulls up. Three pointer is good by Taylor. Brian Taylor, look how far out this shot was. If they had a four pointer, that.

[Rich Levine]

Would definitely be it, wouldn't it? Like Gabe Saperstein, HSU had a vision for improving short players lives. But Brian's next coach is Paul Silas, a former NBA champion and all star whose entire game was about muscle under the basketball.

[Brian Taylor]

Paul Silas came in and he's being the big man. He hated the shot. You look at my numbers, I shot probably 50% less.

[Nick Oldschuler]

I was going to ask you about.

[Brian Taylor]

That because the coach didn't believe in it.

[Nick Oldschuler]

That's what it was.

[Brian Taylor]

Okay, yeah, Paul Silas didn't believe in the three point shot. You know, he used to have me nervous all the time. I always had to look over on the sidelines and him yelling at me for coming down off the break and shooting the three pointer off the break.

[Rich Levine]

Did you ever envision that the game was going to evolve in the way that it did?

[Brian Taylor]

I have no idea, no clue. Because I even questioned whether they would keep it because there were so many detractors of that shot coming into the NBA in 79. So I didn't even know whether it was going to last or not. It was like the great experiment.

[Commentator]

Taylor, three pointer, phenomenal shooting. I'll tell you that's tough out there.

[Nick Oldschuler]

There.

[Commentator]

It's a long ways out there isn't it 22ft from the sidelines?

[Rich Levine]

I guess the experiment succeeded because the NBA three point line did stick around. But for a long while it was still mostly ignored.

[Nick Oldschuler]

In that first season, 7980 teams averaged 2.8 attempts a game. By 1986 attempts did go up, but just barely. 3.3 threes a game. It was still little more than an oddity.

[Rich Levine]

And in a way like we can understand that, right? Like head coaches like Paul Silas were old school guys who had mastered a game that didn't include the three.

[Nick Oldschuler]

None of the books on basketball included three point strategy. None of the players had grown up shooting threes. This kind of thing takes time.

[Rich Levine]

And in general, the NBA was still mostly just ignoring advanced stats, which is basically anything beyond the raw numbers you see in a box score, points, rebounds, assists. But an advanced stat uses those raw numbers to provide some next level insight. For instance, imagine a catch all shooting percentage. One that includes twos and threes and corrects for the difference in value. Today we have that stat. It's called effective field goal percentage. But back then it was hard enough to convince teams that three is more than two.

[Nick Oldschuler]

This was an error when drafting Sam Bowie.

[Rich Levine]

Seven foot one.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Thank you. Over Michael Jordan.

[Rich Levine]

Oh, were you aware Michael Jordan 6 foot 6?

[Nick Oldschuler]

I am now, thank you. Was defensible because the Portland Trailblazers already had Clyde Drexler.

[Rich Levine]

If you're wondering, 6 foot 7, a.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Two way star with multiple all NBA seasons ahead of him.

[Rich Levine]

Although honestly Nick, I do get it. Like who needs a second all star swingman?

[Nick Oldschuler]

I don't know. But seven footers with troubling medical records, you can never get enough of those, right?

[Rich Levine]

But you could blame the NBA for ignoring complicated math when the bottom line was on a meteoric rise. By the mid-1980s, the league was more popular than ever. Finally it had bonafide star power. Burden magic had electrified the nation. Ratings boomed, fans came back. Who has the energy to worry about math when your product is soaring? Collecting new fans with every new highlight dunk or memorable commercial.

[Nick Oldschuler]

New fans like me and me. Two kids from Massachusetts, a little too young to understand the greatness of the Celtics and still decades away from understanding the power of statistical analysis. But falling in love with professional basketball.

[Rich Levine]

My first NBA memory is from game two of the first round of that 1986 postseason. I was there with my dad at the old Boston Garden, taking the tempo.

[Commentator]

Away from the Celtics, trying to Michael.

[Rich Levine]

Jordan right now 23 year old Jordan scored a still NBA playoff record 63 points that afternoon. The Bulls and Celtics scored a combined 266 points. I caught some of this game recently on YouTube and I couldn't believe my eyes. Every single possession, all 10 players squeezed inside the three point line. It was like the floor outside the arc was hot lava.

[Commentator]

A guarding Michael Jordan. Jordan goes up with a shot and hits it and has 61 points to tie Elgin Baylor.

[Nick Oldschuler]

I was born the year the NBA 3 was introduced. 1979.

[Rich Levine]

Oh, Jesus, you're old. The 70s.

[Nick Oldschuler]

I. I'm. I'm a year older than you.

[Rich Levine]

You were an entire decade older than me.

[Nick Oldschuler]

But we both grew up playing at a time when taking a three was more likely to see you benched than cheered. At 6 4, I stood taller than average. And the idea of me playing anywhere outside the paint was absurd to any coach I ever had.

[Rich Levine]

You can't teach height, they used to say. And they certainly weren't going to teach us to shoot from distance.

[Nick Oldschuler]

It was still the big man era, but there was a glimmer of change. The NBA embraced the three in a way treating the novelty like a side act at the All Star Game, the long distance shootout, aka the three point contest. Our man Larry Bird won it in 1986.

[Rich Levine]

It should be noted he also won in 1987.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Let the record show, also 1988.

[Rich Levine]

Something was starting to change in 1989. The NBA was ready to blast into the future at All Star Weekend in Houston. An event of critical importance to long distance shots and to us and to our story.

[Nick Oldschuler]

For it's here in Houston where our winding journey finally meets up with the man who had calculated one simple path forward.

[Rich Levine]

Right after this break.

[Commentator]

We are now inside a sold out Astrodome.

[Nick Oldschuler]

And before game time, we have a very special All Star introduction.

[Rich Levine]

Yeah, here comes to all stars. The 1989 all star game was held inside the cavernous Houston Astrodome. It's a baseball field, so they refitted it for hoops. They laid down a cord on top of the infield, lined it all with a red carpet.

[Commentator]

Barkley follows up.

[Nick Oldschuler]

They even set up extra sets of stands.

[Rich Levine]

If you were in the upper deck at the top row, the seven footers would look like ants.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Elijah Wong, you probably were not happy with the ticket price.

[Rich Levine]

Yes, $13.

[Nick Oldschuler]

And yet they sold the thing out at that point. This All Star Game was the most attended game in NBA history.

[Rich Levine]

So they pulled out all the stops, including a special theme song for the weekend, aptly titled NBA All Star Rap from the legendary Ultra Magnetic MCs. Kevin Duckworth. Dominating the earth as the Middleman dominating every little man back and forth down the low post for the slam, pulverizing the hoop. Cause he's an All Star. It's truly a time capsule into an age of awkward progress for the NBA.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Look out.

[Commentator]

Oh, Karl Malone, who is the top.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Scorer after a booming decade, it was a time of transition. 1989 was the first All Star game of the 80s without Bird and Magic. Bird missed just about the entire season with bone spurs in his feet.

[Rich Levine]

Ouch.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Magic was the leading vote getter for the west but skipped the game with an injury so that 41 year old Lakers teammate Kareem Abdul Jabbar, on a farewell tour in his 20th NBA season, could play in one last All Star game. There's the hook.

[Commentator]

Yes, that's great Standing o Kareem Abdul jabbar in his 18th All Star Game. He hit the sky hook.

[Rich Levine]

Yes, it was a time of transition. The end of an era, the most lucrative decade in NBA history. But a transition into what?

[Nick Oldschuler]

Well, into guys like Dale Ellis.

[Rich Levine]

Nick, you have any curiosity into how tall Dale Ellis was?

[Nick Oldschuler]

I feel like you're going to tell me.

[Rich Levine]

Well, Dale Ellis, for those keeping score was 6 foot 7.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Thank you so much.

[Dale Ellis]

Richard, can you hear me?

[Rich Levine]

Yeah, we got you, Dale. How are you?

[Dale Ellis]

Rich, how are you?

[Brian Taylor]

Good.

[Rich Levine]

And here with Nick is here too. He's my partner in all this.

[Dale Ellis]

How are you doing, Nick?

[Nick Oldschuler]

Good, how are you?

[Dale Ellis]

Fantastic.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Thanks for taking the time.

[Dale Ellis]

No, my pleasure.

[Nick Oldschuler]

These days, Dale Ellis is remembered as a prolific three point shooter. He was the first player to reach 1000 threes in a career.

[Dale Ellis]

I was always best friends with the guards, the guys that pass you the ball.

[Rich Levine]

But he actually never attempted an in Game 3 until he made it to the NBA. Because like every other player at that time, Ellis didn't grow up with a three point line.

[Nick Oldschuler]

That may seem impossible to believe as right this minute there are kids imagining their Steph Curry in driveways all across America. But when Ellis was a kid.

[Dale Ellis]

I love Kareem Abdul Jabbar. I was throwing hook shots. It didn't matter what distance I was from the basket. I was throwing a hook shot. I pretended to be him on the playgrounds.

[Rich Levine]

Playgrounds didn't have three point lines. Neither did high schools. And Dale Ellis never played with the line while in college at the University of Tennessee. So when Ellis got to the league, taken ninth by Dallas in the 83 draft, he learned he could hit threes almost by accident, thanks to a friendship with fellow Mavs rookie Derek Harper.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Harper is known as one of the best backcourt defenders of his generation.

[Dale Ellis]

And after practice we played one on one. He had great hands, so he was one of those guys that could make you go left or right.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Harper also took full advantage of an entirely different element of the game that the league had yet to outlaw.

[Dale Ellis]

The hand checking rules weren't in place at that time, so it was hard to get past him to get clear lane to the basket. So at every opportunity I would take what he would give me. And coaches saw me shoot threes. They had no idea that I could face the basket and pull up from that distance and shoot a three.

[Nick Oldschuler]

In the summer of 86, Ellis moved to Seattle. He rose to stardom as the leader of an upstart supersonics team who rocked the bright green and gold jerseys.

[Rich Levine]

I think they're more of like a yellow, aren't they?

[Nick Oldschuler]

The official website says gold.

[Rich Levine]

I think it's more of like a yellow. Gold, Yellow.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Gold is gold rich?

[Rich Levine]

Fittingly, Ellis also changed his Jersey number from 14 to number three.

[Dale Ellis]

I ended up in the start lineup and threw the ball away a couple times. He called the timeout and said, you're here to shoot it. If you refuse to shoot it, you can sit next to me. And I decided I'm going to shoot the basketball. And my teammates knew that when the ball got in my hands, they can start jockeying for position for a rebound. It might not be a rebound. It's going in. He's shooting it.

[Rich Levine]

That first year in Seattle, Ellis led the entire NBA in three point attempts with 240.

[Commentator]

Dale Ellis, again, this guy is on fire.

[Nick Oldschuler]

He simultaneously ran away with the most improved player award.

[Rich Levine]

His increase from 7.1 to 24.9 points per game is still the largest single season leap in NBA history.

[Nick Oldschuler]

And it landed him at the 1989 All Star Game as the best long range shooter in the game. And he proved it that weekend by beating marksman Craig Hodges in the final of the three point shootout.

[Commentator]

Dale Ellis, a bridesmaid no longer winner of the long distance shootout over Greg Hodges.

[Rich Levine]

Like Brian Taylor before him, Dale Ellis had stumbled on the secret.

[Dale Ellis]

After shooting from that distance, I didn't quite get why more players weren't shooting from there.

[Rich Levine]

But what Ellis didn't know was that in Houston that weekend was the man who saw his full potential. The future, really. The man who saw numbers as colors and analytics is high religion. The one who on this very weekend found himself in position to change the game forever.

[Fred Hickman]

Well, Dale Ellis, how does it feel.

[Rich Levine]

To have the trophy he'd been watching Dale Ellis, studying him and his three point attempts, even if the attention wasn't exactly mutual.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Should we ask about Martin?

[Rich Levine]

Yeah. Have you. Do you. Have you ever heard the name Martin Manley?

[Dale Ellis]

No.

[Rich Levine]

Or the book Basketball Heaven?

[Dale Ellis]

No, I'm not familiar with him.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Martin was actually there in 89. Oh, he was doing some reporting for TBS, but his whole thing was efficiency. And he was the first guy to say, like, why aren't people shooting more three pointers? This is silly. So when you won the contest, he was watching you.

[Dale Ellis]

Oh, wow.

[Commentator]

Dale Ellis with a wide open jumper. He won the three point shootout yesterday.

[Rich Levine]

Even if you were looking for Martin MANLEY during that 1989 All Star weekend, you probably would have walked right past him. He was unassuming, just a 30something white guy from Kansas. Short, dark hair, sturdy, 80s mustache.

[Nick Oldschuler]

He wasn't an imposing physical presence. He was soft spoken, never an athlete. He looked like someone who crunched statistics, not someone with strong opinions on NBA basketball. And truth be told, until a few years earlier, he wasn't.

[Rich Levine]

But inspiration and opportunity struck. And once Martin had an idea, he would squeeze it for every last drop.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Martin Manley was a numbers guy. He was tired of conventional thinking in all aspects of life. He watched basketball games across the country obsessively, nightly. He did the math and he saw it clearly. You are doing it wrong.

[Rich Levine]

So he built this case in a book titled Basketball Heaven, in which Martin presented, among other things, the idea that shooting a Decent percentage from 3 could earn you more points than a higher percentage from 2. The math was too obvious to ignore, although to this point, the NBA had done a pretty good job.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Until now, live on national tv.

[Fred Hickman]

And still ahead, we've got more. Inside the NBA.

[Rich Levine]

Inside the NBA.

[Nick Oldschuler]

His golden opportunity to present his ideas to the world alongside the sport's biggest names during the All Star Weekend in Houston and catapult the NBA into a new era.

[Rich Levine]

This was his moment in the spotlight, in the center of the Astrodome.

[Nick Oldschuler]

And Martin couldn't have asked for a better introduction from broadcaster Fred Hickman, host of Inside the NBA.

[Fred Hickman]

Joining me now is a legend in his own time, and he's got a.

[Brian Taylor]

Book to prove it.

[Fred Hickman]

This is the book, Basketball Heaven. It is penned by Martin Manley. Martin Manley is a statistician extraordinaire. He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball and Martin.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Let's wait a second. That thing Hickman just said is really important. It would have mattered a great deal to Martin or anyone else in his shoes. So let's play it again.

[Fred Hickman]

Martin Manley. Martin Manley is a statistician extraordinaire. He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball.

[Rich Levine]

Bill James, big deal.

[Nick Oldschuler]

If you're a sports fan familiar with Bill James, you understand why this is a compliment of the highest order. It's like Manley is making his national TV debut and being knighted at the same time.

[Rich Levine]

If you're unfamiliar with Bill James, allow my friend Nick child of the 1970s to offer this cheat sheet on one of the smartest people in sports.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Literally one year before you. In the mid-70s, Bill James was a night watchman at a baked beans factory in Kansas. Tired of the conventional thinking in baseball, in 1977, James Self published his first book, Baseball Abstract, which dug into the numbers in a way no one had before. Today, that former night watchman is considered a sports galileo. The first person to not only challenge conventional thinking, but to argue successfully against ideas that had long been considered facts. The first to take the numbers available to everyone and prove that some statistics were overlooked and others vital to winning hadn't yet even been invented. So he invented them. His new interpretations forever changed strategy. Coaches called in relief pitchers earlier in the game. They figured out maybe intentional walks aren't worth the risk. Today, Bill James place in history is secured. He's met with multiple US Presidents. He was named one of times most influential people. When that mattered, he appeared on the Simpsons as himself. More important, Brad Pitt even made a movie Moneyball based on Bill James work.

[Rich Levine]

Love Moneyball.

[Nick Oldschuler]

So yeah, Bill James is a big deal. But in 1989, James was still a relative unknown. But not to Martin Manley. In fact, a lot of Martin's thinking about efficiency in basketball was inspired by how Bill James thought about baseball. He was a huge inspiration for a fellow Kansan.

[Rich Levine]

And it was right there in quotes on the COVID of Martin's book that announcer Fred Hickman was holding up in front of a national TV audience. The Bill James of basketball.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Basketball Heaven was smart, comprehensive, and most of all, original. Through Manley's eyes, readers got a peek at what the NBA could be if only they'd follow his advice. Like this bit from the book. The three point shot has increased in popularity every year since the league first adopted it. But it's not as popular as it should be. The three pointer is a big advantage and should be used more effectively by NBA teams.

[Fred Hickman]

Joining me now is a legend in his own time, and he's got a book to prove it.

[Nick Oldschuler]

This was a massive opportunity for basketball analytics but also a huge moment in the life of the man hoping to lead the revolution.

[Fred Hickman]

This is the book Basketball Heaven. It is penned by Martin Manley.

[Nick Oldschuler]

The young man from small town Kansas hoped to change black and white post ups to glorious Technicolor rainbows from way downtown. And perhaps more importantly to Martin, he could prove he was the smartest person in the room.

[Fred Hickman]

He has done for basketball what Bill James has done for baseball.

[Rich Levine]

And in this moment, as Fred Hickman introduced him, Martin sat perched between success and failure, stardom and anonymity. And Martin Manley, ever full of dualities, looks ready for both.

[Nick Oldschuler]

There's a twinkle in his eyes and a little wiggle to his mustache that can't quite hide the smirk of a man ready to lay down the laws of basketball efficiency as if he had written them on stone tablets.

[Rich Levine]

At the same time, he's a man in a brown blazer and tie with gray slacks, sitting on a brown wooden chair with gray upholstery, as if he.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Had called ahead to make sure he dressed for maximum camouflage.

[Rich Levine]

Martin's leaning hard on his elbow like he wants to whisper a secret into Hickman's ear, but also like he might pass out.

[Fred Hickman]

And Martin, let's talk about it right now. You've watched these teams all season long.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Surprisingly, it's a coin flip. 5050 legacy on the line. Martin gathers himself ready to speak.

[Rich Levine]

On the next episode of Chasing Basketball Heaven.

[Martin Manley]

I not only don't want to be the same as everyone else, I don't want to be the same as anyone else. I'm not going to do what everyone else does just because they do it.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Our friend Martin gets closer to the truth.

[Martin Manley]

Never again would I be in the dark about which player really deserved the headlines.

[Rich Levine]

But can you be a leader if no one follows you?

[Martin Manley]

My dream, of course, was and is that not only I could be enlightened, but so could basketball fans everywhere.

[Rich Levine]

Chasing Basketball Heaven is a 30 for 30 podcast produced by ESP, HyperObject Industries and MetalArk Media.

[Nick Oldschuler]

It was reported and hosted by Nick Altshuler and Rich Levine with Craig Kilborn as the voice of Martin Manley.

[Rich Levine]

Executive producers from Hyperobject Industries and Meadowlark media are Adam McKay, Claire Slaughter and Bradley Campbell.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Senior editorial producer for 30 for 30 podcasts is Preeti Verathan.

[Rich Levine]

The series senior producer is Raghu Manavalan.

[Nick Oldschuler]

The series producer is Gus Navarro.

[Rich Levine]

Consulting producer, Gary Hoenig.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Story editors were Jamie York and Mack Montanden.

[Rich Levine]

Sound design and mixing by John Delore.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Theme song composed by Alison Leighton Brown and John Delore.

[Rich Levine]

Show art by Brian Lutz Fact checking.

[Nick Oldschuler]

By Matt Giles and David Sabino for.

[Rich Levine]

30 for 30 and ESPN. Line producer is Kathryn Sankey Associate producer is Isabella Seaman Production assistants are Diamante McKelvey and Anthony Anthony Salas Producer is Carolyn Hepburn. Senior producers are Marquise, Daisy and Gentry Kirby.

[Nick Oldschuler]

Heather Anderson, Marcia Cook, Brian Lockhart and Burke Magnus are executive producers for 30.

[Rich Levine]

For 30 rights and clearances by Jennifer Thorpe and Cal Griffith.

[Nick Oldschuler]

This podcast was developed by Tara Nadaldi and Cynthia Parabello.

[Rich Levine]

To listen to more sports series like this one, search 30for30podcasts wherever you listen to podcasts or find us at 3030for30podcast.com thanks for listening.