← The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz
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- [00:01]
A
Hi, hello and welcome to the playoffs. My fellow football Americans and to the analytics enthusiasts out there, with all due respect, please put the abacus down for a second and listen up here. I get it. Some people love math. A lot of us grew up with Good Will Hunting. And the Beautiful Mind guy is Oscar winning action heroes. But small sample sizes be damned. Of course, postseason QB wins are a real stat. You remember in Fight Club when Tyler Durden makes the other Tyler Durden embrace the pain instead of trying to wash it away. That's the NFL playoffs. The analytics peeps insist the performances of quarterbacks in the most critical moments of their careers don't much matter when it comes to determining who the best QBs in the QB league are. But then what metrics are we using if not QB wins in the big games? Their stats? Well, Kerry Collins has more career passing yards than Joe Montana. Matt Schaub has a better passer rating than Roger Staubach. I don't want to live in a world that says Emmitt Smith is better than Walter Payton because Emmett had more rushing yards. Now listen, I know no one thinks Trent Dilfer is better than Dan Marino, but I'll bet you Marino would rather have had Eli Manning's career. Likewise, Eli Manning wasn't better than Tom Brady. But winning when it matters most does matter. Is it the number one thing? I don't know, but it's way up there. The guy who gets paid 10 or 20 times more than most of his teammates is more important to winning. And if he loses, he'll get most of the blame. Sam Darnold knows what I'm talking about. Silly me, I assumed the ultimate point of every NFL season was to win it all. And therefore winning postseason games is actually a terrific measure of an NFL QB's greatness. In my defense, I've been brainwashed by Vince Lombardi. You know, the trophy guy who said winning isn't everything, it's the only thing. But you know, maybe the math dorks are right. Maybe we should just end the season around the holidays. Why bother with the playoffs and cold weather and heightened competition and the winner takes all standard. Who needs all that drama? Am I right? I like when the Matthews insist you can't count rings as a measure of one's greatness. But here's the thing. Yes, I can listen. The convenient truth is this. The majority of Lombardi's are won by the teams with the best QBs. Here's the rub. So long as the NFL's brain trust continues its practice of awarding only one Lombardi per year. The math doesn't allow for every good QB to win one. And that's what makes it good. The pressure of singular moments. The guys who do win them are the ones who become enduring legends. Wring your hands all you want, but this is how recorded history works. Of course, there are other factors, but these are footnotes to the main plot. Whatever happens in the playoffs, the great QBs are still going to be great. But when the debate is best ever, rings count. The titles are history's markers. They are everything. I know ignoring reality is all the rage these days, but this isn't about how you feel. It's about who wins, AKA the only thing. Let's start the playoffs. Let's start the show. Yes. Hi and hello. Welcome to the wild card round. Welcome to Football America. We're presented by DraftKings. DraftKings. The crown is yours for 14 fan bases at least. These are the good times. Join us throughout this playoff ride. Subscribe. Subscribe, subscribe. Spread the good word. Would you download, listen, experience wherever you find your podcasts and on YouTube. Football America Plus Jeff Schwartz and Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you. Also available on that YouTube page, Football America. Speaking of Jeff Schwartz, he's jumping in to help us make the wild card round picks. He'll be with us in just a second. In the meantime, it's episode 41. Mike McDaniel is now out in Miami. That makes what, eight available head coaching gigs at the time of this recording. Maybe by the time you're listening to it, one or more of those has been filled by the guy or guys who got rejected from one NFL town and have now landed in another to play hero slash savior. There quickly. Gino and Mike. Mike and Gino Fuentes. How are you? I hope you're ready for the playoffs, both NFL and college. The you getting ready at the time of this recording for their final four game. But first, number 41, I'll just tell them to you real quick. Alvin Camara wore it well, probably best even among NFL players. Brian Piccolo, star of Brian song. Eugene Robinson. I think he was NFL man of the year. And then he got picked up on the eve of the super bowl for soliciting a prostitute. Tom seaver wore number 41. Dirk Nowitzki, Glenn Rice, Wes unselled NBA. Probably wore the number best out of everybody. Meantime, like I say, Gino and Mike. Mike and Gino, how are you? And how is everybody down there in Miami with the news about Mike McDaniel? I gather excited is the answer.
- [05:09]
B
Oh yeah. We all kind of knew this was coming. I mean, well, maybe we're not.
- [05:13]
C
Not really. I mean, I felt like on Monday he's saying he's part of the GM search.
- [05:17]
B
Yeah.
- [05:17]
C
You know, so it's. It's.
- [05:18]
B
I didn't know then the list of candidates were all guys that you thought.
- [05:21]
C
Were connected to him, like 49ers guys and guys he worked with. Wherever it was, it was. It's not really shocking, but I don't know. It's like a weird in between for me.
- [05:30]
B
The John Harbaugh thing seems to throw.
- [05:32]
C
This in a whole direction.
- [05:33]
B
Yeah.
- [05:34]
A
I don't get exactly why all of these teams are falling all over themselves to get John Harbaugh, who had Lamar Jackson consider. I did a list a few months ago of the greatest duos in sports history to never win a title together. Mike Trout and Shoehe Ohtani are way up there. Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown and Levy and Bell are way up there. Connor McJesus and Leon Draisaith. I think you now can rightly add Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry never getting to a Super bowl together. What? The sec, the first or second best running back in the sport. At worst, the third best quarterback in the sport. They never went to a Super bowl together or haven't yet. We'll see if the new head coach there makes any sense. It does feel a lot like musical chairs is what's going down with these teams. It does feel like McDaniel's going to land in one of those available. He's going to be.
- [06:24]
B
It seems he's going to be an awesome offensive coordinator wherever he goes. I mean, he made a lot of players on that offense have, like, the best seasons of their career. Tyreek Waddle. Darren Waller was way better here than he was in New York. Aaron Brewer became an all star center.
- [06:38]
C
Yeah, I said it out here earlier. I mean, the Detroit Lions looks like a nice spot for him. And also now they just ousted the offensive coordinator and right up the road here in Tampa Bay. You know, Baker might still have it. You know, like, he has his running game guru thing. Bucky Irving, still a good back. Rashad White, not a bad receiving back out of the backfield. Like, I don't think the Mike McDaniel chapter is definitely not closed. I just. I just read that he had a postseason meeting with Steven Ross, and just based off that meeting, Steven Ross said, you're done here. So what did he do in that meeting?
- [07:06]
A
What did he say in that meeting is involved? Maybe Troy Aikman had some sway. And maybe we're not hearing all of those details. Either way, I'm still coming down as a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, I'm still coming down from cloud nine from the Sunday night game, maybe the most consequential regular season game the NFL has seen. And it sort of makes a nice little circle about the opponent that they're about to face on Monday Night Football slash playoff game, the Houston Texans, the Ravens and Steelers resulted almost literally in because of Tyler Loop missing that kick, John Harbaugh getting fired. And I know people are being a little simple minded about it. You say, oh, it just came down to one kick. No, it's the accumulation of all the years running up to it and the season and missing the playoffs and making some decisions within those four quarters and it all amounted to that one kick and the kid missed it and so Harbaugh is out. I don't think Mike Tomlin would have gotten fired had the Steelers lost that game. But I do continue to say, and I, I mean, if they lose to the Texans and even if they beat the Texans, it is still in play that maybe Mike Tomlin doesn't get an extension to his contract and this is his last season with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The talk about the broadcast booth probably ain't going to happen. But I could see him bouncing to the Giants or to the Raiders or, I don't know, I mean, shame the devil if he went to the Browns or to the or to the Ravens. That would be funny stuff. But either way, the most consequential game up until this point in the last three or four years was maybe when Davis Mills in the Houston Texans won that game. They rallied to win the game and gave themselves CJ Stroud instead of Bryce Young. And I think they're happy with that decision. I think ultimately the Carolina Panthers are happy to have Bryce Young. You guys, obviously, I don't know if you were paying attention, but I was flapping my gums before I said hello to either one of you about the import, the singular moments of these playoffs. Do you buy what I'm attempting to lay down when I say that I think that Dan Marino would rather have had Eli Manning's career? What do you guys say? Whose career would you guys rather have had?
- [09:26]
B
Oh, I'll take Eli Manning's career. You got the whole football family thing going for you. You beat Tom Brady twice.
- [09:31]
C
But that's a life thing. That's not a career thing. I mean, having a football family, I mean, I. The Marino thing.
- [09:36]
A
Yeah, forget the family crap. I don't know what Gino's doing.
- [09:39]
C
Super Bowl, super bowl or no Super Bowl, Dan Marino is still considered one of the greatest to ever do it.
- [09:43]
B
Yeah, but how much he hates hearing the fact that he never won a Super bowl, beat Tom Brady twice.
- [09:48]
C
I think he'd rather Eli Manning, though. You know, Eli Manning is. He had. He basically had two seasons just happened, you know, get the super bowl win, both beating Tom Brady twice.
- [09:55]
B
Okay, cool.
- [09:55]
C
You know, I don't know.
- [09:56]
A
I think.
- [09:56]
C
I think being known as a Hall of Famer, one of the greatest to ever do it. Like. Like, is. Is Eli Manning considered, like a New York Giants icon? Like, is he. Like, is he.
- [10:04]
A
Sure. Really?
- [10:05]
B
You think so?
- [10:06]
C
I mean, I think people think Strahan is more of, like one of. The. One that he won is more of a thing, you know, you heard what Gino said.
- [10:12]
A
If you needed the reminder. He beat Tom Brady in the super bowl, he didn't do it. He didn't do it one time.
- [10:17]
B
No, I get it.
- [10:18]
A
He did it. He did it. He's 20 against the goat in the biggest game. I mean, he's obviously gotta get into the hall of Fame. This is a ludicrous rolling discussion about whether or not he's a Hall of Famer. But I do think that if you hook them up to a lie detector, Dan Marino can know deep in his balls, I know I'm better than Eli Manning. I think Peyton and Archie and Eli himself knows that Dan Marino was better than Eli was. I still think that they all, including Dan Marino, would rather have had Eli's career. He won twice. Maybe if you fluke your way to one, you make a case. I'd still rather have all of my achievements, but he's a. He won two Super Bowls. I think I would.
- [11:00]
C
Lie detector. Lie detector for you right now. Arthur Smith or Mike McDaniel as the offensive coordinator.
- [11:07]
A
Mike McDaniel.
- [11:10]
B
About that, I have no problem.
- [11:13]
A
I think I've been. I've been nothing but a straight shooter with you about these Pittsburgh Steelers. But in the moment, in that fourth quarter, Dave was all the way in. I loved what I saw in the fourth. That. I mean, these are, like I say, these are unironically or otherwise. This. This is what it's all about. These are the good times. We've made it. Enjoy it. Lean into it. Yes. Big pressure. It. Don't. Don't be one of these people talking about, like, ah, listen, whatever happens here. Did you see. What did you see? His passer rating in October is not A conversation that anybody wants to hear. These moments are what it's all about. Let's get Jeff Schwartz in here and cut to the chase and start picking these games, shall we?
- [12:03]
C
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- [13:04]
A
All right, no more jive. It's time to focus in on the main event here. Six games total. That's it. We usually try to focus in on the most consequential games in the NFL weekend. They're all consequential. These are playoff games, after all. In a pinch, he's jumping in. That's why he's our main man here. We had our guy Kevin Hench ready to go, but he's got some stuff going on on the side. We gave him a call last second. Even it's later than 11:59. It's like 11:59 and 58 seconds. But he's here to jump in. He's the host of Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you. And it's Jeff Schwartz. What's the poop, fella? How you doing? How you feeling?
- [13:42]
B
I am good. I'm excited to talk to you. We have your Steelers in the playoffs. We have your Hoosier in the playoffs. I mean, first time ever, right? A double duo. Steelers, Hoosiers playoff weekend.
- [13:54]
A
I think literally there's no. There wouldn't be any historical comp there. All right, listen, let's save the college football talk for the back end here because by the time most listeners hear us talking about it, they'll probably already know the results of at least one of those two games, maybe both of them. Let's focus in, like I say, on the wild card round in the NFL playoffs. Start us off. Jeff Shorts, real quick with who you think is going to be participating in Super Bowl 60. I'm already on the record, by the way. Broncos Eagles 17 to 1 at last check, man.
- [14:32]
B
I think the Rams are winning the nfc. That's the one I feel strong. The position I feel strongest about. They've got to finish games better. It's been a bugaboo of theirs this season. They have not looked terribly good the last couple of weeks, but maybe just end of season fatigue. We'll see. They have the easiest game this weekend, which is important. The afc. Dave. I've wanted it to be the Broncos for weeks. I've talked about them being the team that buy is so important. It's so huge. One last game. They win one game and they're in the AFC Championship game. Right? Like it's that simple for them. The problem is I just continue not trust Bonix. I just, I can't do it and I can't believe I'm saying this team, but I think Jacksonville might be the best team in the AFC and I. You have to basically go against all history of the National Football League to pick the the Jacksonville Jaguars. But defensively they're really good on defense. Trevor Lawrence has turned the ball for one time in the last six weeks. Started to run the ball a little bit more now. So I think they'd be Buffalo this weekend. They, they could end up hosting the FC champion game, which is certainly possible the way this breaks out because AFC to me is, is very coin flippy in every game. So I will go Jacksonville, I'll go the Rams.
- [15:47]
C
Join me, Jeff.
- [15:48]
B
Join me.
- [15:49]
C
Venga. Go at the Jags. Venga, venga.
- [15:51]
B
Come with me.
- [15:52]
C
I hated them all year. Now I have him in the AC Championship as well.
- [15:55]
A
It's pronounced Mike. I don't know if you know this, but it's pronounced Benga. The V is like a B. Yeah.
- [16:02]
C
You know, I was, I was just saying. I was just making that joke to Gino and I was like, should I even say this? It like kind of connotes Pablo Escobar. I don't know if you want to be saying that around but you know, thanks for bringing extra light to it. I'm happy you could do that for me.
- [16:12]
A
Well, we've just picked a couple, tipped a couple of our picks here. Obviously Schwartz is going to take the Jags and I'm going to take the Eagles in the wild card round. Let's Jump. There you go. Let's jump into it and we'll start back to front. Monday Night Football. I don't know how I feel about this spiritually. I don't like a game of huge consequence being shoved into Monday Night Football, then a short week for whoever wins it. Then again, as somebody who is rooting for one of the two teams playing on Monday, I think this is kind of ideal from a viewing standpoint. If your team plays first the first game of the weekend and loses, now, you feel like you got a gut punch. I always think back in 1992, as a. As a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, when fans Francisco Cabrera and Sid Bream happened to the Buckos and the Braves went to the World Series, I missed almost the entire great 1992 World Series against the Minnesota Twins. I tuned in late to game six and watched game seven because I was too sick in my balls still that the Buckos had lost in such heartbreaking fashion. If your team loses the first game of Wild card weekend, you feel. You feel like you're so sick you have to find something else to do with yourself. Now I can watch all the games in front of it and anticipate. What if my team survives this weekend and makes it to the division around? You hear what I'm saying?
- [17:40]
B
I understand that, but I think in this situation, you don't have to wait for a win. So you're in a good situation here for Pittsburgh where you get to just, you know, like you do. Are you, as a Steelers fan, are you excited you won that game? Like, I know. Sure you have. You beat the Ravens. But now Tomlin's there for probably four more years. Like you get four more years of Mike Tomlin now because you won that game where the other coach got fired. He might have been fired anyways, but the loser of that game got fired. Now Mike Tomlin's around for a long time. I was looking instead. TJ Watt has never won a playoff game. That kind of feels shocking to me. Like, it's been so long. I don't know. The. The Steelers voodoo. It happened against the Ravens. It could happen to here. I think it wouldn't shock me if Pittsburgh won. I just think Houston, their pass rush and their defense, even with Metcalf back, isn't. Isn't going to, you know, isn't going to really help Pittsburgh very much in this game.
- [18:34]
A
Well, to answer your question, yes, I'm happy that. That the Steelers won that game, because in the moment, you can't. You know, I always used to say we had this conversation, I think three or four weeks ago. People used to ask me, what if Indiana and Pitt played each other in the Final Four and basketball are now in football, which way would you go? And I said, well, that's not something I can tell you intellectually. I'll have to be in the moment. Feel of my, my heart and my gut will guide where I come down on this sort of thing.
- [19:04]
B
It would be Indiana, by the way.
- [19:06]
A
I, you know what I think it would have been? I think I'd be rooting for Pitt.
- [19:09]
B
No, I'll tell you, I'll, I'll tell you why. I grew up a UCLA fan, same as you grew up a pit fan, right? Like that's, that's, that's my parents with ucla. Both of them went to ucla. I thought in basketball I would root for UCLA instead of Oregon in big games. And you don't. I remember in 2007, UCLA came to, came to Matt Court. They were ranked maybe one in that game. And Oregon was in town. Oregon was. UCLA was in town playing Oregon. My dad came up for the game. I was having back surgery too. So we were both there and we went to the game, dude. And it was the most fun. And I thought I'd go in there. Maybe I root for the. No, you, you, you don't. You root for your school. You absolutely do. So I think you would root for Indiana.
- [19:53]
A
You, you. My particular childhood was spent at Pitt Stadium and Fitzgerald Field house.
- [20:02]
B
I went to every UCLA home game from the time I was five to the time I graduated. Went to Oregon.
- [20:07]
A
All I can tell you is I was way more nervous with, you know, at the end of the first half in the Ravens game, way more nervous with seven and a half left in the game, way more nervous with 55 seconds left so on than I've ever been during this Indiana Hoosiers run. And yes, I was prisoner of the moment. All my larger concerns, long term concerns, were washed away for then and I think that they will return if the Steelers lose this game. All the talk about Mike Tomlin is now safely back for the next four or five years. I don't necessarily think that's. That that's the case. Let's see what happens if they lose a home playoff game. They're right back and Mike Tomlin is right back with all the concerns that existed in front of that Ravens game. And so he may well wind up not fired like John Harbaugh, but may take himself out of the mix. However you want to couch it, I wouldn't be surprised if that's the way it turns out now matter at hand. Houston Texans Pittsburgh Steelers home team at the time of this recording catching three points total is 39 and a half. Whenever I think of the Texans and the Steelers, I'm reminded of the ought to game, the first in Houston history. Their quarterback, rookie David Carr goes three of 10. Oh, this is the whole game, you understand. I'm not talking about 1/4 or 1 drive. David Carr goes 3 for 10 for 33 yards, whereas his counterpart Tommy Maddox, in the weirdest Steeler season until this season, Tommy Maddox throws for 326 yards. Pitt runs for 128 yards. The Texans had 37 rushing yards on 26 attempts. The Steelers win the time of possession 2 to 1. Final score Texans 24 6. It's the most impossible box score you've ever seen in your life. Anyway, rear view mirror stuff said several times over the last three months. Jags were going to win the division based on how the schedule set up and they are playing very well. But the Texans were and are shaping up as the AFC's best overall team. Their defense is mighty. Rogers is night and day based on the pass rush that he is facing. You saw that Browns into Ravens. Nevertheless, I like the vibe. I like the vibe going there and I'm a prisoner of the moment. Like I already said, Provincial Dave says. Pittsburgh Steelers 2018. Take that, Schwartz.
- [22:42]
B
I'll tell you this though. The, the Steelers voodoo man alive and well. That, that, that Watt interception, they're like, there we go. There it is right there. Pushing the kick to the right the very end for no reason. Steelers voodoo like that. Stadium home underdog man. Like that's right where Pittsburgh wants to be. I, I do worry about the Houston offensive line. It's not their strong suit, but Pittsburgh and entering Pittsburgh doesn't pressure the pasture a ton. But when they do, they turn into sacks. Like it's either like a feast or famine type situation for them. So can they basically get after Stroud, right? I just don't know how you're going to score very much. I think it's a, it's a, it's a tough time to get in the end zone for, for Pittsburgh in this game. How many points you need to win do you need? 17? 20? You think you need 20 points to win? You probably need help on defense to get there. Give your offense some short fields. But I just, you can. To me, you never count out, you never count out Pittsburgh as a home underdog any situation. So last Game of the weekend. It's not like Houston has a long track record of this team winning road playoff games either.
- [23:52]
A
Well the other thing is too I feel like even though they're the road team and all the rest of it, CJ Stroud is the one who comes in with some pressure on his shoulders. He's got the curse of supposed to and I know Aaron Rodgers does and Mike Tom Tomlin does but man I've been critical. I've been skeptical all through the season. I don't think I've kept it a secret that the idea that a 42 year old man is going to be a positive difference maker and carry the load for you for all the pressure, I mean his literal career may well have been on the line. If they lose that game the Steelers, I don't think Aaron Rodgers comes back to Pittsburgh. Maybe somebody else grabs him for one more year but I don't think his future would have been in black and gold and they're down and for him to play, for him to play to deliver a nails performance like that was was I thought pretty impressive stuff with Adam Thielen and MVS as his targets. Keep in mind too now he gets DK Metcalf. I know it's some of it is trying trying to be optimistic. I already said the Texans have the best defense at minimum maybe the best team in the afc. In the here and now though I'm going to ride with with Tomlin and Rogers for one week and let's see what happens on the other side of it. Meantime, Chargers, patriots for these two teams in the playoffs my mind goes to 2007 title game. The Chargers went up there. Phil Rivers had the the torn acl. Ladanian, I don't remember what his issue was. I think it was his knee. He gave it one series and couldn't go. Phil Rivers played the whole game. They still almost kind of sort of pulled that game out again rear view mirror stuff. Chargers liability is on the O line but the Pats ain't world beaters at rushing. The passer patriots laying three and a half total, 46 and a half shorts. How say you I have the Chargers.
- [25:47]
B
To cover this game. I just, I can't buy the Patriots with their schedule, man. They played three teams with a winning record at least 500. They were 1 and 2. They scored less points and gave up more points. Chargers definitely have some issues on their offensive line but they're mostly on the edges right. And that's not what the Patriots do on defense. Their best stuff is in the middle of that defense, the Chargers defense is number one in the NFL against passer like pass rating against. Actually they've done a great job this season. They pressure the heck out of the quarterback. You know Herbert, we talk all season. He leads the NFL on pressures. Second is Drake. Maybe Drake was impression a ton. Now the difference is Drake may is doing incredibly well off the charts well against pressure which I don't know if that really translates over to the postseason very well. So I let the Chargers control the physicality of this game. The, the, the tempo of this game. I think they cover this game. Do they win? I wouldn't be surprised. But I do like them. Plus the three and a half to cover this game.
- [26:46]
A
The Vrabel v. Harbaugh element of it is intriguing stuff as well. No stranger on either side to, to big time games. Do you think on a human level this may sound like a dumb question because maybe it is a dumb question. Is Jim Harbaugh probably as a human being spent some time with his brother on the phone this week. Right. Is he at all distracted? Does that have any impact? Like I've been trying to help talk my brother through a tough time and I haven't really been able to focus on film as much. No. I assume the answer.
- [27:21]
B
I, I think he, I actually think like maybe he just. I, I think the answer is like no. I would say, I would say, I would say no, they have not talked.
- [27:33]
A
Oh, they haven't even connected. He's like I'm focused on my own stuff.
- [27:37]
B
Like hey, I'm out of here. And maybe they talk like he's driving home and then he called him. But I don't think he took any time away from his preparation.
- [27:44]
A
Okay. Just, you know, I'm a, I'm an empath. I don't know how, how other people are wired. I have the Patriots 2423. So obviously I'm trying to have it both ways there. Another quick question for you. I've been riding with the sophomore QBs this year and as far as that goes, Drake, May, Bo Nix, Caleb, Jaden plus Penix and McCarthy. I mean if the, if one of these guys gets to the super bowl and wins it, are we already at a point where the 2024 QB class is in the conversation for best ever? I mean that's a pretty loaded half dozen names I just threw at you.
- [28:20]
B
We would have to be. Right?
- [28:21]
A
Yeah. I mean the answer, the short answer is yes.
- [28:24]
B
It would be, it'd be like the 83 year. Right.
- [28:26]
A
And Jaden Daniels Just about went to the Super Bowl a year ago. So add that to the pile as well.
- [28:31]
B
I think you have to think that. Yeah.
- [28:40]
A
Niners Eagles home team laying 4 and a half, 44 and a half. As you're told at the time of this recording, Niners couldn't stop Seattle from running and couldn't start running on the Seattle defense last week. I don't really see why either of those things is going to change much against this Eagles team. Jeff Schwartz, how say you?
- [29:01]
B
Yeah, this is sort of strength versus strength and weakness versus weakness, right. Where you have a situation where you have the Niners offense versus the Eagles defense, right? Those are the two strengths of those teams. The Niners defense against the Eagles offense, those are sort of the weaknesses of both teams. But the question is like the Eagles get Lane Johnson back presumably.
- [29:18]
A
That's right.
- [29:19]
B
What's going to stop. Who's stopping the whole liners are stopping the Eagles. I just, even though Eagles offense has not been great, Dave, I just don't really think that the Niners have the pieces in place. They can't rush the passer, have no linebackers. Like it's just that's not a recipe for any success in the NFL. And so I just do not believe that the Niners have enough in this game. They're great stories, Shannon's done a great job, but they don't have enough in this game in my opinion to make this a close game. Even as bad as we agree Eagles offense has been this season, I'm not sure they can take advantage of it. It's unfortunate football team, but it's to me just not. Not there's not enough in this game for them.
- [30:01]
A
Well, I mean, you know that again the Eagles are my super bowl pick or they're the NFC representative. The big factor here is their Jenga pieces are back. Jalen Carter on the defense, they are a very different defense. When he's there in the middle and on offense like you say, Lane Johnson appears to be coming back too. He's their offensive Jenga piece and the offense is very different. I suspect that Saquon Barkley has a day here against the diminished Niners defense.
- [30:28]
B
I think he has to have a day like if like like that has to be something. He's got to have a good day for the Eagles to be the team they want to be.
- [30:35]
A
27, 24 Eagles advance in my book. There you go. The Buffalo Bills, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the home team, the Jags are catching a point and a half. 45 and a half is the total this is, I think, from what I'm able to glean from social media and conversations with the Fuentes boys and beyond, this is the toughest call of the weekend for most football enthusiasts. How say you?
- [31:01]
B
Not for me, it's not. I think Justin's gonna win this game. Buffalo's the most pressure of any team in the postseason, right?
- [31:08]
A
Yes.
- [31:09]
B
No Mahomes, no Lamar, no Joe Burrow. The three guys that have tortured Buffalo over the years, they've played worse on the road in the playoffs. They, their defense, in all their losses, just combust completely combustion. I think Jacksonville's ability to run the football in this game and commit to running the football is a huge benefit to them. The Buffalo has to make more plays to win the game than Jacksonville does. Right? Like Josh Allen has to have heroic Josh Allen stuff. Trevor Lawrence I don't think has to do that in this game. Run the ball, take what's there. Jacksonville Jaguars defense, number one NFL against the rush, playing Buffalo's offense. You know, we talk about Josh Allen this year. It's kind of interesting how, like, he's got nobody, Dave, number one rushing offense in the NFL. I mean, nobody. I mean, he's a great wide receiver, sure, but he has the number one rushing offense in the NFL. It's something. And I just think Jacksonville is a better team. I love what Liam Cohen has done this season. Again, the improvement for Trevor Lawrence to just becoming. He's not completing a ton of passes, certainly a problem, but he, he's turned the ball over less. Doing like those. All those plays were like, what are you doing, dude? He hasn't had those in six weeks. So I feel like if you can avoid that in a playoff game, they're going to win this game.
- [32:24]
A
When you see what Lian Cohen has done in one season with Trevor Lawrence and Ben Johnson has done in one season with Caleb Williams and so on and so forth, it's remarkable to me that the first thing you hear as soon as John Harbaugh gets fired, literally 28 seconds later, like, oh, half dozen other teams want them desperately. Why do you want the retread? Don't you? What would the Steelers do if they fired Mike Tomlinson? Go and get one of those clever ocs out there. They're obviously the straws that stir the drink at this point, clearly.
- [32:53]
B
Well, I think, I think here's the issue, Dave, is that this year there's not a great group of those coaches. And so you're looking at teams hiring retreads, but also a lot of the teams that are hiring have signaled like the Giants have signal they want a former head coach like they like. So it's, it's that they've signaled. They made those signals, they put those out there. We want a former head coach. So that is why people have connected Harbaugh to that job. Now I wonder if that's, you know, connected to Dolphins as well. There's a familiarity with Jim Hart, with, with, with John Harbaugh that ownership will like instead of, you know, chasing the young guy like we know we get with Harbaugh. I'm very fascinated to see where this goes because, you know, Lamar is incredible, but he has not had the playoff success that you want is another coach bring that out of Lamar. So eight jobs open this. There's not eight great coaches this year. Last year was a good coaching pool. This one right now really isn't.
- [33:53]
A
I, you know, I hear you, but the, the thing that's funny about this particular retread, head coach John Harbaugh, I don't understand the comps to Andy Reid. I get the notion it's like maybe things, maybe things run their course.
- [34:07]
B
Andy, five NFC championship games.
- [34:10]
A
Andy Reid is also an X and O guy. By definition, he's a QB whisperer. John Harbaugh, sort of like a foreman on the work site. He does a good job of managing all the different elements of the game, but he's not a. I don't think he's a difference maker. And I think he's going to find a very different reality from the stable Baltimore organization if he goes to play a place like, say, Cleveland. I don't think that's going to work out for either side of things if that winds up happening either way. Cursa Sposta is on the road team, as you say, for this game in Duval county. The Bills have to win it. I think McDermott is coaching for his future. I wouldn't be surprised. You talk about experienced head coach. Maybe he winds up with the Giants by autumn of 2026 if they don't win this one. I don't think Allen's going to drag him to the Super Bowl. Jags have the better team and in fact their quarterback is playing better than the reigning mvp. All that being said, I'm taking the Bills on the road here. I just got a hunch about the history of Josh Allen. I think he gets to the divisional round. We'll see what happens after that. And logic or illogic, we move on to the packers and the Bears. We've talked about trying to Beat the same team three times in a season. The Bears are the home team. They're plus one and a half. 45 and a half is the total. Jeff Schwartz.
- [35:28]
B
Well, well, they split the season series, right? They, the packers won the first game, remember?
- [35:35]
A
Oh, that's right, that's right, that's right, that's right, that's right.
- [35:37]
B
Yeah. I also look so that's on the rematch thing quickly. People love to throw like ah the losing team. It's easier for them. I, no, I, I if, if a team wins twice in regular season they're probably better like I, that's, I've always, I never understood this. Oh, team wins twice. It doesn't apply here of course, but give me the packers. Dude. I am. I'm just. It's a full fight of the Bears 33 takeaways this season. When they have two or more takeaways they're nine zero. When they have one or fewer they're two and six in the for the top six teams who have for of allowed who led the league in turnovers. Right. Or Jimmy takeaways essentially and allowed the most points. So those two things. Right. Led the five of the six never made the playoffs. The Bears are in that six that made like this is the diva's not good. Like I don't really expect it to turn up a notch in the postseason. Now the packers no pass rush which has been alarming. Quarterbacks a little beat up. I know they'll be back this week. I just like the packers this game. I'm just fighting the Bears.
- [36:46]
A
I that's sort of. I'm not applying any specific logic beyond Jordan Love has been there. He's got something to prove here. He's coming back. What I don't get is I'm taking the pack 30 to 28 here. I don't understand about the Leflore is going to get fired talk. I mean do you see what he did with Jordan Love? Did you see what he's done with Malik Willis? What are we talking about? Everybody?
- [37:10]
B
I don't buy either.
- [37:12]
A
Very weird. I don't get that one. Okay, Rams, Carolina. We know Schwartz is taking the Rams because he has them going all the way to the Super Bowl. Ten and a half. If memory serves, that was the exact number that, that the Panthers caught at home the last time these two teams played. This time the total is 46 and a half. How say you on this one Shorts in terms of against the spread?
- [37:36]
B
Oh, I mean ten and a half points. A lot, Dave.
- [37:39]
A
Yes, a lot of Points.
- [37:40]
B
Yes, it is in the NFL in the postseason. I mean, I'm staying away from this one because I think it's one of those things where if a good Panthers show up, it's a game. The bad Panthers show up, they lose by 17. You know, I just, I just don't know which version is showing up. I know what I'm getting from the Rams. I think this is closer to Rams cover than not. I would just stay away from it.
- [38:01]
A
No team that survived the regular season has to be sicker than the Rams. They could have maybe should have been the 1 seed if not for the last 8 minutes or whatever. Up in Seattle, they were in Philly.
- [38:12]
B
They're 267 in Philly and lost.
- [38:14]
A
Remember, that's week three. I mean that's, that's ancient history. But yeah, you're absolutely right. No, you're absolutely right. It is wild. 10 and a half against the team they lost to in that exact same stadium about six or eight weeks or so ago. It's loco. But I'm going with the Rams to win outright. 26:18, that's just too big a number for a playoff game. I mean, I don't like, like a double digit favorite in the regular season. I definitely don't like it in the postseason. But I think you're ultimately right. It's a stay away game. And last thing before we let you go. We appreciate you jumping in to, to help us out last second. And like I say, a lot of people listening will already know the results of the two college football final four games. But let's hear your picks here and see how close we can get. In fact, if you'd like to like, let's pretend like we've already seen them too. Let's talk in. Let's, let's, let's do it as though it's already settled. And we'll start with Oregon IU, the Hoosiers - three and a half. 47 and a half is the total. Jeff Schwartz wearing Ducks.
- [39:21]
B
Gear. I mean, if it's, if we're talking about. It's already done. I'll, I'll see the crew in Miami in a couple of weeks to watch Oregon play Miami in a national championship game while I watch Mara Cristobal Dan Lanning in a, in a. That. That would be a very toxic Internet game, by the way, between Mario Miami fans, Oregon fans. Look, I think Miami wins, by the way, so we, we're not spending time on that. Let's talk about our game.
- [39:45]
A
Here. What a stupid. I mean this tournament is undermined. I know I said this earlier in the week, but I didn't say it to you shorts like well we texted about it on the side. They'll that that like this is the greatest to turn to. This tournament is so great, so intense. The Ole Miss coaches may not show up for it. What are we talking about? Ain't that.
- [40:06]
B
Intense. And also too like you better.
- [40:09]
A
Win the you you know you're playing. The other team doesn't even have.
- [40:12]
B
Coaches. The funny part too like Indiana's already secured their roster for next season in the same week as they're playing a semifinal game. And Oregon lost like their entire secondary and running back room to the portal. So like that's awesome. Look, I think in this game I feel like I know I'm getting from Indiana. I feel like I know what that team is right now. Oregon's got to play better in offense and it's a lot of self inflicted mistakes. And I went back and watched the first Oregon Indiana game. It's like we drop a pass on, on second and seven that would have got us inside the 10 yard line. I mean that we go 1410, like that's a big difference in the game, right? Instead I think we take the field goal on that drive. You know, Dante Moore just not throwing the ball when he's supposed to. I mean there's just a lot of stuff in that game that kind of frustrated me. You bet the case. Indiana didn't play their best game offensively. That's certainly fair. They threw a pick six and whatnot. It only 340 yards. If we have 340 yards again, I'm, I'll take it. Dave. Sweet. That's awesome. So that's my biggest question is like what do we get from Oregon offense? Do we get a kind of sloppy consistent performance we've had against better teams or they play their, if they play their best game of the season, we probably win. But they haven't done that against better teams, haven't done against Iowa, didn't do it against Penn State against Indiana the first time and didn't do against Texas Tech. So for the fifth time we need to have like the best offense we've had all season. Can we do it? Absolutely. You know the sim pressure stuff, I mean Indiana ate us alive on sim pressures. The, the case against Indiana is not even almost like a football thing per se. It's like is Indiana going 16 oh because the team going 16 oh this season, like is that like is that really going to happen? Are they Going to win every single high leverage moment the entire season. Right. Like those are not like non football things per se that have to go organs way I think for them to win this game. Indiana is so efficient at what they do and it's just hard to beat a team like that. They make no mistakes, they don't turn the ball over, don't have penalties, don't do dumb stuff, don't, don't blow coverages, don't have offensive line issues. So it's a very tough team to play. Dave, I think everything goes the way I said it can go for Oregon. Yeah, Oregon can win the game. If they don't play on clean offense, we're not going to.
- [42:24]
A
Win. Well, a lot of good defenses are showing up or at least three good defenses are showing up for this final four. I'll ride with the Hoosiers. I'm rooting for you. Except I have many dozens of people I'm rooting for on the IU.
- [42:39]
B
Side. Nothing root for me. I don't, I don't, I don't.
- [42:41]
A
Like. I'd like you to be happy. I'd like you to be happy. That's.
- [42:43]
B
All. I hope you, I hope you.
- [42:44]
A
Lose. All right. Screw. I hope you lose.
- [42:47]
B
Too. You should hope I.
- [42:49]
A
Lose. Last thing is before you go, this is not something a stable, sober NFL franchise would do. The Ravens are not going to hire Kurt Signetti, but if you're the.
- [43:01]
B
Raiders. Raiders, yes.
- [43:02]
A
Yes. This would be, I think to me like this is crazy kind of thinking and all of that but in this ca. Oh, this is a perfect Mark Davis kind of thing to do. But I think this one would actually have a chance of working out. Sig isn't going to be afraid. Like wow, that's a. They're a dumpster fire the Raiders. Like do you see what he did in Indiana? They have no history. He turned them around right quick. And Fernando to me does present as in the right situation, a legit NFL star QB, a high end quarterback, top 10, top dozen quarterback with his college coach. I think again, I know it's not something that teams that have an eye towards the long term and we hope this guy's going to be around a dozen years from now kind of thing in what you're looking for in a head coach. I don't think that's the Raiders approach to things and I think it would work if they did it. I just don't know if they'll actually follow through. How say.
- [43:54]
B
You? I think I saw a report that Sick is getting like 12.5. Now the reduced contractor, he's, he's up for a bonus of some sort. I mean, the Raiders will pay him like 20. I mean, if money is. I, I think at this point, Signetti doesn't feel like he wants the NFL as the end game. Like, there are younger college coaches that have always looked toward the NFL as an end game. I mean, Dan Lennox talked about it like, like at some point in his career, he wants to go to the NFL. Chip Kelly went to the NFL. Spurry went to. I mean, we got younger coaches make that jump. I don't think Signetti's age is like, I want to go be NFL coach. It didn't feel that way to me. And why leave now? You get the support from Mark Cuban, you get the support from the administration. They're all in. You're getting the players you want out of the portal. Like, this is not the time to leave, in my opinion. Shark iron hot. I get.
- [44:38]
A
It. That's what, that's my thinking is you could convince yourself we ain't ever repeating what we've just done this magic season. We may as well leave while the getting's.
- [44:49]
B
Good. It's probably unlikely Indiana's back here next season. It's unlikely Ole Miss is back here. Miami loses a ton. That's something about Oregon. You know, Oregon, we're not going to lose a lot. We're going to have a lot of guys come back. Like, I feel a little comfortable in saying, I think we back next season in the same spot. But you still want to win. Of course, I'd rather win now than never win. But I think Indiana, Signetti, like, you look at it as like, this is our year to do this now. Next year you bring in Hoover, all that stuff, but it might not work out quite as.
- [45:19]
A
Well.
- [45:20]
B
Sure. Last thing here we have seen 2023 Michigan, 2024 Ohio State, and now 2025 Indiana. They're old as shit, man. Like, they are super old. Indiana has, out of 11 starters in offense, one is younger than four. Four years in, in college football, I think defense is three guys that are three years and the rest are all four or five, six year guys. Michigan was old, Ohio State was old. Oregon's trying this next year we might have four, four year defensive linemen. Like we're trying to do that. That's now I think the model in the sport is to be old, experienced and have a lot of football wisdom. And grown men, like grown.
- [45:59]
A
Bodies. That's.
- [45:59]
B
Right. To play this game. Because now you have a Longer season too. Right. So. So the more mature body can probably handle the long season than can younger guys. So it is really to see Indiana follow that model. I'm not sure they did on purpose, Dave, but they're in line with the last two champions as far as the old. The youth or lack thereof of their.
- [46:16]
A
Program. I hear you. And they did. Bottom line is load up real good. So the bridge in the next season is strong enough that. I think that would be a deterrent for Coach Sig to walk away from that because they. It's not just a qb. They did really add some nice pieces there for next season. Anyway, listen, in the here and now, bad luck to your team. I hope they lose. I wish you lose, too. I wish. I'm nothing but the worst out there. Same on the field and really appreciate you jumping in and hopefully we'll talk on the other side of it in the next few days. Jeff Schwartz is smarter than you. Make sure you're checking it out, everybody. There he goes. Jeff Schwartz. I was. I was just trying to be a gentleman. I'm not actually wishing the Ducks any luck whatsoever. Why? I'm wishing them bad luck.
- [47:03]
B
That's. Yes, you wish your opponent bad.
- [47:04]
A
Luck. That's right. That's right. And I wish the you good luck. Bad luck. I don't know. I hope you see in Miami a week from Monday for Fernando invading or returning the prodigal son to play the U and having all of his hometown pals root against.
- [47:21]
C
Him. Do.
- [47:22]
A
You? I guess. I don't.
- [47:23]
C
Know. As a Hoosier fan, do you prefer. You prefer Ole Miss in the.
- [47:27]
A
Championship? I guess. But as a college football fan, I think it's lousy. If Ole Miss, with its assistant coaches on the fence about whether even they should show up and fought or follow Lane to LSU sooner rather than later is a bad look for the sport. So I think the U versus, like I say, Fernando, the local Cuban hero. That's great storylines. I think that would be good. So I think. Think as objective as I can be about it, that's what I'm rooting for. It's all a dream. It's all a dream. It's all a dream. What's going on? Very quickly, you heard our picks there. Mike Fuentes. Which game are you most confident in? Who's gonna win it most? I assume.
- [48:08]
C
Rams. Excluding Rams, Panthers. I think that's an easy one for all of.
- [48:11]
A
Us. Good place to start. Yeah, let's get them out of the way. Child's.
- [48:14]
C
Play. The game that I'd hate to say it because I really like the 49ers, but I just don't see what I'm looking at. Yeah, I just don't see them overcoming that in Philly. I know the Eagles offense has been but the way that the 49ers looked against the Seahawks, the way they're able to shut down like not be able to stop Kenneth Walker or Charbonnet and and the way the defense like that is advancing. So if I had to pick an absolute lock, I'm with, I'm with Jeff too on the, on the Steelers voodoo. They just find a way to keep every game close and I don't trust CJ Stroud. So out of all those I'm going to say the one that'd be the most confident putting my money on is his Eagles to take care of the.
- [48:48]
A
49Ers. How about least confident.
- [48:50]
B
Gino? The least confident out of all these. I mean this Bill's Jacksonville game is going to be so fun to watch. I, I, I mean I think, I think the Jaguars are going to win, but tough to pick a winner could easily be Josh.
- [49:02]
A
Allen. All right, part of the fun this weekend and going forward is playing the pick six presented by DraftKings. DraftKings. The Crown is yours. Here are half dozen names as if you are new to the way we approach this. I'm a simple minded person. I just try to pick touchdown scores. I don't try to focus on the yards. But those are available to you as well at DraftKings. I'm going to start with players who are going to score more than half a touchdown and I bring this up because it's impossible to score half a touchdown so they'll score at least a full touchdown. I'm going with Kyron Williams, Puka Nakua. You can tell them on the Rams based on that. Saquon, like I say, should have a day against the Niners. You saw how they handled or didn't handle the Seahawks running backs. Saquon is superior. I think he finds the end zone. James Cook has been a touchdown maker all season long. That will continue. And then in the throwing department, two touchdown passes or more. Matthew Stafford, Drake may. How say you Mike Fuentes or Gino Fuentes? Any swap.
- [50:07]
C
Outs? So I don't love, I love Puka as a receiver. I just don't feel like he catches a lot of touchdowns. He'll probably catch even less with Devonte Adams back so that's probably the one I'm looking at. I also really don't love Drake May for two touchdowns because he the Charger secondary pretty good. So I like. So here's the thing about who I'd pick. I take Josh Allen to score anytime touchdown. That means he's going to rush one. In Josh Allen's best statistical games, he's throwing a touchdown and rushing a touchdown. And those are usually the games that he really has to battle in. He's going to have to battle in this Jags game. So I'm going to say that Josh Allen gets a rushing touchdown against.
- [50:41]
A
The Jags and you're taking the Jags to win the.
- [50:44]
C
Game. I.
- [50:44]
A
Am. All right, You're a man of. Of many flavors, Mike Fuentes. Gino, any swap outs for.
- [50:51]
B
You? Yeah, I think it's going to be like you got Stafford here for two touchdowns to get to two touchdowns. He's going to need devonte Adams. So I'm going to put devonte Adams in and that's probably going to cost Kyron Williams his.
- [50:59]
A
Touchdown. All right, there you go. Follow us or come up with your own half dozen names. The important thing is to play the pick six with DraftKings draft K. The crown is yours. And now we've told you what we think is going to happen in the wild card rounds. Now it's on you to enjoy the wild card rounds. Unless your team is in it, you're going to be. You're going to be nervous as balls all weekend long. I know I'm going to be trying to enjoy it a little bit. These are the good times, everybody. We'll be back on the other side of most of the wild card round and round two of the College Football Playoff to get you right for Monday night and beyond the divisional round and the rest of it until then for everybody on Football America. Thanks so much. My fellow football Americans. It's been a thin slice of.