The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz

Episode: Old Guard vs. New Guard: Why the Rams & Jags are LOCKS

Date: January 9, 2026

Episode Overview

Broadcasting from the Elser Hotel in Downtown Miami, Dan Le Batard, Stugotz, and the crew dig deep into the NFL Wild Card playoff weekend and beyond. This episode is marked by passionate debates over what defines football greatness (rings vs. stats), extensive analysis on NFL head coach firings/hirings, and bold, boisterous playoff predictions—centered on why the Rams and Jaguars are “locks” in their respective conferences. Jeff Schwartz joins for expert picks, while the group spirals into engaging sidebars on playoff heartbreak, quarterback legacies, and college football’s new world.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

Playoff Quarterbacks: Does Winning Matter Most?

Opening Riff (00:00 – 05:09):
The show launches with a fiery monologue mocking “analytics nerds” who claim postseason QB wins don’t truly measure greatness.
- Key Take: Dan Le Batard (A) holds that playoff wins—and especially Super Bowl rings—are essential legacy metrics:
  
  "Who needs all that drama? Am I right?... The majority of Lombardis are won by the teams with the best QBs. ... The titles are history's markers. ... They are everything." (A, 03:13 – 04:50)
- The banter draws comparisons between statistical outliers (e.g., Kerry Collins vs. Joe Montana passing yards) and concludes that singular postseason moments define legends.
Memorable Quote:

“...if you hook [QBs] up to a lie detector, Dan Marino can know deep in his balls, 'I know I'm better than Eli Manning'… I still think that they all, including Dan Marino, would rather have had Eli's career.” (A, 10:41)

NFL Coaching Carousel & Miami Fallout

Miami’s McDaniel Ouster (05:09 – 07:06):
Reaction to Mike McDaniel’s firing as Dolphins head coach—shock, speculation, and where he fits next.
- Debate over John Harbaugh’s attractiveness as a head coach, given notable playoff underachievements in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry (05:32 – 06:24).
- Side note: Harbaugh’s fate and near-misses framed as “musical chairs” across the NFL’s job market.

Branding QB Legacies: Marino vs. Eli

Would You Trade Stardom for Rings? (09:25 – 11:06):
- Dan challenges: Would Marino really trade everything for Eli’s two Super Bowls?
- Mike and Gino weigh in, with Mike seeing value in the "Manning family legacy," but Dan refocusing on wins over “the family crap.”
- Ongoing debate: Rings as ultimate legacy marker vs. statistical greatness.

Playoff Picture: “The Good Times”

Big Picture Playoff Hype (11:09 – 13:04):
- The panel urges listeners to savor the drama and pressure of playoff football—“These moments are what it’s all about.”
Key Quote:

"Don’t be one of these people talking about, like, ‘Did you see his passer rating in October?’ These moments are what it’s all about." (A, 11:13)

Wild Card Weekend Preview with Jeff Schwartz

[NFL Playoff Game Picks Segment Begins]

Jeff Schwartz Joins (13:04):
Former NFL lineman Jeff Schwartz (host of Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You) brings sharp predictive insight, first declaring:

“I think the Rams are winning the NFC. ... I think Jacksonville might be the best team in the AFC...” (B, 14:31 – 15:47)

Notable predictions and rationale:

Rams: Easiest wild card matchup, overall roster strength, but need to finish games.
Jags: Defensive surge, Trevor Lawrence’s improved ball security, running game peaking.

(See “Playoff Game Breakdowns” below for detailed picks with timestamps.)

Instant-Classic Football Nostalgia

Why Monday Night Football for Playoffs Feels Off (16:12 – 18:33):
- Dan recounts painful sports fan memories, relating the emotional arc of playoff anticipation and heartbreak to viewing order.
- Tie-in: Importance of savoring/suffering each round—“you’re so sick you have to find something else to do.”

Steelers-Texans Deep Dive

Pittsburgh vs. Houston (18:33 – 23:52)
- Nostalgic look back at bizarre Steelers-Texans games.
- Panel divided: Schwartz leans Texans due to pass rush; Dan can’t resist picking his emotional favorite, the Steelers, citing rally moments and “Steelers voodoo.”
- Memorable Quote:
  
  "The Steelers voodoo man alive and well. ... That Watt interception, they're like, there we go. There it is right there." (B, 22:41)

QB Class Legacy, Coaching Trends, and Retread Debate

2024 QB Class Hype (27:43 – 28:30):
Group speculates the sophomore class (May, Nix, Penix, McCarthy etc.) could rival 1983 for best ever—if one wins the Super Bowl.
On Retread Coaching Hires (32:23 – 33:52):
- Debate: Why recycle coaches like John Harbaugh instead of modern offensive innovators?
- Schwartz notes dearth of “great” new blood in 2026 class.

Playoff Game Breakdowns & Picks

Packers vs. Bears (35:28)

Panel: Packers are the pick; Jordan Love “has something to prove”; brush aside LaFleur firing rumors.

Rams vs. Carolina (37:09 – 38:39)

Schwartz: Leans Rams, but 10.5-point spread is a playoff minefield:

“Ten and a half points—a lot, Dave.” (B, 37:35)
Dan: “Rams win outright, but that’s just too big a number for a playoff game.” (A, 38:00)

Niners vs. Eagles (28:39 – 30:34)

Schwartz: Eagles’ strengths (especially run game, Lane Johnson’s return) too much for banged-up Niners defense.
Dan’s Pick: Eagles 27, Niners 24.

Buffalo vs. Jacksonville (31:01 – 32:53)

Schwartz: No hesitation—Jacksonville the better, more balanced team.

“Buffalo’s the most pressure of any team in the postseason...I just think Jacksonville is a better team.” (B, 31:01 – 31:08)
Dan: Picks Bills on “Josh Allen history hunch.”

Chargers vs. Patriots (25:46 – 27:43)

Schwartz: Chargers to cover, trusts their defense over “soft” Patriots schedule.
Dan: Leans Patriots for a close grind: 24–23.

Other Notables

Eagles and Jags named as most confident picks by the Fuentes brothers (48:07 – 48:48).
Bold call: “Least confident game? Bills–Jags. Could go either way.” (B, 48:50)

College Football Playoff Sidebars

Indiana, Oregon, Miami chatter (39:20 – 46:16):
- Schwartz and Dan break down the new world of old, experienced “grown man” rosters dominating college—draw direct line Michigan, Ohio State, and now Indiana.
- Debate if Indiana’s coach (Signetti) could jump to the NFL and fit Mark Davis's Raiders wild-hire tendencies.
Key Quote:

"The model in the sport is to be old, experienced and have a lot of football wisdom...Grown men, grown bodies." (B, 45:19)

Notable Quotes

“In my defense, I’ve been brainwashed by Vince Lombardi. You know, the trophy guy who said, ‘Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.’” (A, 02:39)
“In the moment, you can’t. ... All my larger concerns, long-term concerns, were washed away for then. I think they’ll return if the Steelers lose this game.” (A, 20:06)
“I can’t buy the Patriots with their schedule, man. ... They played three teams with a winning record ... Chargers definitely have some issues ... but their defense is number one in the NFL against passer rating.” (B, 25:46)
“Don’t be one of these people talking about: ‘Did you see his passer rating in October?’ These moments are what it’s all about.” (A, 11:13)

Summary Table: Key Playoff Picks & Rationales

| Game | Dan Le Batard | Jeff Schwartz | Group Insight | Timestamps | |----------------------------|--------------|---------------|--------------------------------------------------------|--------------------| | Rams vs. Carolina | Rams (win), spread too high | Rams (NFC pick), but cautious vs. spread | Rams most complete team, but beware big lines | 14:31, 37:09-38:39 | | Jags vs. Bills | Bills (hunch pick) | Jags (more balanced) | Jags defense peaking, Allen/Bills under pressure | 14:56, 31:01-32:53 | | Niners vs. Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Niners D lacks tools, Eagles healthy again | 29:00-30:34 | | Steelers vs. Texans | Steelers | Texans | Steelers “voodoo,” Texans D strength | 18:33-23:52 | | Bears vs. Packers | Packers | Packers | Bears need big takeaways, don’t trust their rise | 35:28-36:46 | | Chargers vs. Patriots | Patriots (close) | Chargers (cover) | Chargers D > NE, but not high on either | 25:46-27:43 |

Fun/Engaging Moments

Dan’s impassioned opening monologue ridiculing analytics deniers of “QB wins.”
Lively Marino-vs-Eli ring debate (“deep in his balls...”).
The nostalgia trip through improbable Steelers-Texans box scores.
The wild, authentic emotional ride of fandom: “All my larger concerns...were washed away for then.”
The jokey, cheering-against-your-friends college football banter with Jeff Schwartz (“I hope you lose, too!”).

Useful Timestamps

00:00-05:09 – “QB Wins” Monologue
05:09-07:06 – Miami’s McDaniel fallout/Harbaugh coaching carousel
09:25-11:06 – Marino vs. Manning: Rings or stats?
13:04-14:56 – Jeff Schwartz joins, picks Rams & Jags
16:12-18:33 – Playoff viewing order/heartache
18:33-23:52 – Steelers-Texans full breakdown
25:46-27:43 – Chargers-Patriots picks
28:39-30:34 – Niners-Eagles analysis
31:01-32:53 – Bills-Jags debate
35:28-36:46 – Bears-Packers preview
37:09-38:39 – Rams-Panthers spread worry
39:20-46:16 – College football playoff/Life cycle of great teams

Closing Vibe

This episode is a high-energy festival of football revery—with deep appreciation for the gravity of playoff moments, skepticism towards the recycled coach pipeline, and front-foot, bold predictions for the NFL’s new guard. Dan, Jeff, and the crew stay true to their brand: irreverent, informed, emotionally raw, and endlessly entertaining.

“These are the good times, everybody. Enjoy it. Lean into it.” (A, 11:13)

For more: Check out Jeff Schwartz’s podcast “Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You” and play along with the show’s Pick Six segment during the playoffs.

The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz

Episode: Old Guard vs. New Guard: Why the Rams & Jags are LOCKS

Date: January 9, 2026

Episode Overview

Main Discussion Points & Insights

Playoff Quarterbacks: Does Winning Matter Most?

Opening Riff (00:00 – 05:09):
The show launches with a fiery monologue mocking “analytics nerds” who claim postseason QB wins don’t truly measure greatness.
- Key Take: Dan Le Batard (A) holds that playoff wins—and especially Super Bowl rings—are essential legacy metrics:
  
  "Who needs all that drama? Am I right?... The majority of Lombardis are won by the teams with the best QBs. ... The titles are history's markers. ... They are everything." (A, 03:13 – 04:50)
- The banter draws comparisons between statistical outliers (e.g., Kerry Collins vs. Joe Montana passing yards) and concludes that singular postseason moments define legends.
Memorable Quote:

“...if you hook [QBs] up to a lie detector, Dan Marino can know deep in his balls, 'I know I'm better than Eli Manning'… I still think that they all, including Dan Marino, would rather have had Eli's career.” (A, 10:41)

NFL Coaching Carousel & Miami Fallout

Miami’s McDaniel Ouster (05:09 – 07:06):
Reaction to Mike McDaniel’s firing as Dolphins head coach—shock, speculation, and where he fits next.
- Debate over John Harbaugh’s attractiveness as a head coach, given notable playoff underachievements in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry (05:32 – 06:24).
- Side note: Harbaugh’s fate and near-misses framed as “musical chairs” across the NFL’s job market.

Branding QB Legacies: Marino vs. Eli

Would You Trade Stardom for Rings? (09:25 – 11:06):
- Dan challenges: Would Marino really trade everything for Eli’s two Super Bowls?
- Mike and Gino weigh in, with Mike seeing value in the "Manning family legacy," but Dan refocusing on wins over “the family crap.”
- Ongoing debate: Rings as ultimate legacy marker vs. statistical greatness.

Playoff Picture: “The Good Times”

Big Picture Playoff Hype (11:09 – 13:04):
- The panel urges listeners to savor the drama and pressure of playoff football—“These moments are what it’s all about.”
Key Quote:

"Don’t be one of these people talking about, like, ‘Did you see his passer rating in October?’ These moments are what it’s all about." (A, 11:13)

Wild Card Weekend Preview with Jeff Schwartz

[NFL Playoff Game Picks Segment Begins]

Jeff Schwartz Joins (13:04):
Former NFL lineman Jeff Schwartz (host of Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You) brings sharp predictive insight, first declaring:

“I think the Rams are winning the NFC. ... I think Jacksonville might be the best team in the AFC...” (B, 14:31 – 15:47)

Notable predictions and rationale:

Rams: Easiest wild card matchup, overall roster strength, but need to finish games.
Jags: Defensive surge, Trevor Lawrence’s improved ball security, running game peaking.

(See “Playoff Game Breakdowns” below for detailed picks with timestamps.)

Instant-Classic Football Nostalgia

Why Monday Night Football for Playoffs Feels Off (16:12 – 18:33):
- Dan recounts painful sports fan memories, relating the emotional arc of playoff anticipation and heartbreak to viewing order.
- Tie-in: Importance of savoring/suffering each round—“you’re so sick you have to find something else to do.”

Steelers-Texans Deep Dive

Pittsburgh vs. Houston (18:33 – 23:52)
- Nostalgic look back at bizarre Steelers-Texans games.
- Panel divided: Schwartz leans Texans due to pass rush; Dan can’t resist picking his emotional favorite, the Steelers, citing rally moments and “Steelers voodoo.”
- Memorable Quote:
  
  "The Steelers voodoo man alive and well. ... That Watt interception, they're like, there we go. There it is right there." (B, 22:41)

QB Class Legacy, Coaching Trends, and Retread Debate

2024 QB Class Hype (27:43 – 28:30):
Group speculates the sophomore class (May, Nix, Penix, McCarthy etc.) could rival 1983 for best ever—if one wins the Super Bowl.
On Retread Coaching Hires (32:23 – 33:52):
- Debate: Why recycle coaches like John Harbaugh instead of modern offensive innovators?
- Schwartz notes dearth of “great” new blood in 2026 class.

Playoff Game Breakdowns & Picks

Packers vs. Bears (35:28)

Panel: Packers are the pick; Jordan Love “has something to prove”; brush aside LaFleur firing rumors.

Rams vs. Carolina (37:09 – 38:39)

Schwartz: Leans Rams, but 10.5-point spread is a playoff minefield:

“Ten and a half points—a lot, Dave.” (B, 37:35)
Dan: “Rams win outright, but that’s just too big a number for a playoff game.” (A, 38:00)

Niners vs. Eagles (28:39 – 30:34)

Schwartz: Eagles’ strengths (especially run game, Lane Johnson’s return) too much for banged-up Niners defense.
Dan’s Pick: Eagles 27, Niners 24.

Buffalo vs. Jacksonville (31:01 – 32:53)

Schwartz: No hesitation—Jacksonville the better, more balanced team.

“Buffalo’s the most pressure of any team in the postseason...I just think Jacksonville is a better team.” (B, 31:01 – 31:08)
Dan: Picks Bills on “Josh Allen history hunch.”

Chargers vs. Patriots (25:46 – 27:43)

Schwartz: Chargers to cover, trusts their defense over “soft” Patriots schedule.
Dan: Leans Patriots for a close grind: 24–23.

Other Notables

Eagles and Jags named as most confident picks by the Fuentes brothers (48:07 – 48:48).
Bold call: “Least confident game? Bills–Jags. Could go either way.” (B, 48:50)

College Football Playoff Sidebars

Indiana, Oregon, Miami chatter (39:20 – 46:16):
- Schwartz and Dan break down the new world of old, experienced “grown man” rosters dominating college—draw direct line Michigan, Ohio State, and now Indiana.
- Debate if Indiana’s coach (Signetti) could jump to the NFL and fit Mark Davis's Raiders wild-hire tendencies.
Key Quote:

"The model in the sport is to be old, experienced and have a lot of football wisdom...Grown men, grown bodies." (B, 45:19)

Notable Quotes

“In my defense, I’ve been brainwashed by Vince Lombardi. You know, the trophy guy who said, ‘Winning isn’t everything, it’s the only thing.’” (A, 02:39)
“In the moment, you can’t. ... All my larger concerns, long-term concerns, were washed away for then. I think they’ll return if the Steelers lose this game.” (A, 20:06)
“I can’t buy the Patriots with their schedule, man. ... They played three teams with a winning record ... Chargers definitely have some issues ... but their defense is number one in the NFL against passer rating.” (B, 25:46)
“Don’t be one of these people talking about: ‘Did you see his passer rating in October?’ These moments are what it’s all about.” (A, 11:13)

Summary Table: Key Playoff Picks & Rationales

Fun/Engaging Moments

Dan’s impassioned opening monologue ridiculing analytics deniers of “QB wins.”
Lively Marino-vs-Eli ring debate (“deep in his balls...”).
The nostalgia trip through improbable Steelers-Texans box scores.
The wild, authentic emotional ride of fandom: “All my larger concerns...were washed away for then.”
The jokey, cheering-against-your-friends college football banter with Jeff Schwartz (“I hope you lose, too!”).

Useful Timestamps

00:00-05:09 – “QB Wins” Monologue
05:09-07:06 – Miami’s McDaniel fallout/Harbaugh coaching carousel
09:25-11:06 – Marino vs. Manning: Rings or stats?
13:04-14:56 – Jeff Schwartz joins, picks Rams & Jags
16:12-18:33 – Playoff viewing order/heartache
18:33-23:52 – Steelers-Texans full breakdown
25:46-27:43 – Chargers-Patriots picks
28:39-30:34 – Niners-Eagles analysis
31:01-32:53 – Bills-Jags debate
35:28-36:46 – Bears-Packers preview
37:09-38:39 – Rams-Panthers spread worry
39:20-46:16 – College football playoff/Life cycle of great teams

Closing Vibe

“These are the good times, everybody. Enjoy it. Lean into it.” (A, 11:13)

For more: Check out Jeff Schwartz’s podcast “Jeff Schwartz is Smarter Than You” and play along with the show’s Pick Six segment during the playoffs.

Old Guard vs. New Guard: Why the Rams & Jags are LOCKS

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Summary

The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz

Episode: Old Guard vs. New Guard: Why the Rams & Jags are LOCKS

Episode Overview

Main Discussion Points & Insights

Playoff Quarterbacks: Does Winning Matter Most?

NFL Coaching Carousel & Miami Fallout

Branding QB Legacies: Marino vs. Eli

Playoff Picture: “The Good Times”

Wild Card Weekend Preview with Jeff Schwartz

[NFL Playoff Game Picks Segment Begins]

Instant-Classic Football Nostalgia

Steelers-Texans Deep Dive

QB Class Legacy, Coaching Trends, and Retread Debate

Playoff Game Breakdowns & Picks

Packers vs. Bears (35:28)

Rams vs. Carolina (37:09 – 38:39)

Niners vs. Eagles (28:39 – 30:34)

Buffalo vs. Jacksonville (31:01 – 32:53)

Chargers vs. Patriots (25:46 – 27:43)

Other Notables

College Football Playoff Sidebars

Notable Quotes

Summary Table: Key Playoff Picks & Rationales

Fun/Engaging Moments

Useful Timestamps

Closing Vibe

Summary

The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz

Episode: Old Guard vs. New Guard: Why the Rams & Jags are LOCKS

Episode Overview

Main Discussion Points & Insights

Playoff Quarterbacks: Does Winning Matter Most?

NFL Coaching Carousel & Miami Fallout

Branding QB Legacies: Marino vs. Eli

Playoff Picture: “The Good Times”

Wild Card Weekend Preview with Jeff Schwartz

[NFL Playoff Game Picks Segment Begins]

Instant-Classic Football Nostalgia

Steelers-Texans Deep Dive

QB Class Legacy, Coaching Trends, and Retread Debate

Playoff Game Breakdowns & Picks

Packers vs. Bears (35:28)

Rams vs. Carolina (37:09 – 38:39)

Niners vs. Eagles (28:39 – 30:34)

Buffalo vs. Jacksonville (31:01 – 32:53)

Chargers vs. Patriots (25:46 – 27:43)

Other Notables

College Football Playoff Sidebars

Notable Quotes

Summary Table: Key Playoff Picks & Rationales

Fun/Engaging Moments

Useful Timestamps

Closing Vibe