Postgame Show: Billy's Ducks

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz – Postgame Show: Billy's Ducks
Release Date: April 9, 2025

Hosted by Dan Le Batard and Stugotz from the Elser Hotel in Downtown Miami, this episode of "The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz" delves into the intricacies of sports betting, specifically focusing on NHL matchups. The hosts engage in lively discussions about team performances, betting strategies, and innovative ideas to modify NHL scoring rules. Below is a detailed summary capturing the key points, discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode.

---

1. Introduction to "Against the Spread" Segment

Timestamp [01:03] – [01:15]

The episode quickly transitions from the introductory sponsor messages to the “Against the Spread” segment, a regular feature where the hosts analyze and predict sports outcomes with a betting angle.

• Mike: "That'S right. It's time for against the spread. And it's brought to you by our friends at DraftKings. DraftKings. The Crown is yours. Mike, start us off."
  (01:03)

---

2. St. Louis Blues vs. Edmonton Oilers Betting Analysis

Timestamp [01:15] – [03:14]

• Greg's Analysis:

  Greg kicks off the segment by discussing the St. Louis Blues' impressive performance, highlighting their recent success and historical context.

  • Greg: "I'm gonna write a hot hand in hockey. By the way, we did some number crunching on the total succession rate conversion rate on pass power plays in the NHL. Right now it's as good as it's been since the mid-80s. You won't have a team setting records the way that the Edmonton Oilers did, but the floor is a lot higher now in the NHL."
    (01:15)

  He praises the Blues' current form, noting their nine wins out of the last ten games, and anticipates their performance against the Oilers.

  • Greg: "So the St. Louis Blues have won nine out of their last 10. They are scorching hot. Monte and them boys are finally clicking on all cylinders over there. They have a tough test today at Edmonton, but I'm gonna ride the hotter team. I'm gonna go alt spread here. Gotta take a chance. Gonna take Blues minus one and a half on a road."
    (01:55)

• Billy Interjection:

  Billy briefly counters Greg's pick, but Greg reinforces his stance on taking the Blues with a spread of -1.5.

  • Billy: "Against us."
    (01:55)

• Final Betting Pick:

  Greg concludes his analysis by solidifying his bet on the Blues.

  • Greg: "It wasn't done to cash that in at hopefully over plus 240 juice against the spread."
    (01:57)

  • Mike: "Usually when you say the spread, yeah."
    (02:04)

  • Greg: "But it's just I'm taking an alt spread. So it's like juicy accountability."
    (02:07)

  • Mike: "That's on me."
    (02:10)

  • Greg: "No, no, it's all right."
    (02:11)

---

3. Anaheim Ducks vs. Calgary Flames Betting Strategy

Timestamp [02:15] – [03:14]

• Billy's Turn:

  Billy takes over to discuss the upcoming matchup between the Anaheim Ducks and the Calgary Flames, presenting his betting strategy.

  • Billy: "All right. I'm gonna stay on the ice in the Calgary flag. Flames are headed to Anaheim to take on the Ducks. Your Ducks. I've been big on the Ducks this year. Now you look head to head. The Calgary Flames three wins, no losses against the Ducks so far by scores of 4-1, 4-1 and 3-2 in overtime, the Flames have lost 4 of their last 7, 4 of their last 11 and 14 of their last 25 on the other hand, the Ducks have lost 3 of their last 7, 6 of their last 11, and 313 of their last 25. The Ducks have been eliminated from the postseason already, but you know these scrappy Ducks, they're not just going to roll over here to the Flames, who are still in playoff contention. That's why I'm going to take the Anaheim Ducks plus one and a half tonight against the spread."
    (02:17) – (03:02)

  Billy emphasizes the Ducks' resilience despite their postseason elimination, choosing to back them with a +1.5 spread.

  • Billy: "Plus one and a half tonight against the spread."
    (03:02)

---

4. Discussion on Modified NHL Scoring Rules

Timestamp [03:18] – [05:29]

The conversation shifts from betting strategies to a spirited debate on altering NHL scoring conventions, initiated by Alex’s unconventional suggestion.

• Alex's Proposal:

  Alex introduces the idea of adjusting how certain goals are counted in the NHL.

  • Alex: "I think power play goals should only count as half goal."
    (03:18)

• Billy's Engagement:

  Billy engages with Alex’s proposal, questioning its feasibility and implications.

  • Billy: "Ooh."
    (03:23)

  • Alex: "I want to make that change in the NHL. It'll never happen because it messes with history."
    (03:29)

• Further Discussion:

  The hosts delve deeper into the logic behind Alex’s suggestion, debating the practicality and potential impact on the game.

  • Alex: "Empty netters should also count as a half a goal."
    (03:31)

  • Unknown Speaker: "Would you be able to bet on quarter goals then?"
    (03:35)

  • Billy: "What if you do it past the blue line? Is that two goals? Maybe."
    (03:39)

• Greg's Input:

  Greg attempts to follow Alex’s logic, seeking clarification.

  • Greg: "If I may, let me follow this logic matter."
    (03:43)

  • Alex: "Yeah."
    (03:45)

  • Greg: "A power play goal should only count as half a goal because you have a person advantage, right?"
    (03:46)

  • Billy: "Yes."
    (03:51)

  • Alex: "Right."
    (03:51)

  • Greg: "But you have a person disadvantage most times. Again, when you have an empty net situation."
    (03:51)

  • Billy: "One and a half."
    (03:55)

  • Billy: "It's one and a half."
    (03:57)

  • Alex: "Let's be reasonable. That would never happen."
    (04:14)

  • Billy: "What?"
    (04:17)

  • Alex: "The half goal."
    (04:17)

  • Billy: "Short handed goal."
    (04:18)

  • Alex: "The half goal for a power play goal is legit. That could happen. Devaluing the empty net goal is something that I would take a long hard look at. Ovechkin, to his credit, said that he would not score his record-breaking goal on an empty net, which I thought was nice."
    (04:19) – (04:38)

• Mike’s Counterpoint:

  Mike challenges the practicality of altering goal values.

  • Mike: "What's the short handed goal worth now?"
    (04:03)

  • Alex: "You know, I haven't thought of that."
    (04:06)

  • Billy: "That's what I'm saying. One and a half."
    (04:09)

  • Mike: "Ovechkin has a record breaking 65 empty net goals in his career. So he has more than Gretzky. I hold that against him."
    (05:21)

  • Alex: "I do, too."
    (05:28)

• Ovechkin vs. Gretzky Debate:

  The discussion intensifies as the hosts compare Alexander Ovechkin’s and Wayne Gretzky’s records concerning empty net goals.

  • Greg: "I was so bothered by Ovechkin saying that he didn't want the empty net goal."
    (04:53)

  • Mike: "Oh, he got it."
    (04:56)

  • Greg: "It would have been cool. Like, again, he missed like a season and a half due to work stoppages, and he had Covid impact him like, we got it, man. You're good. You've had enough obstacles. It's all right. Have one empty netter on us."
    (04:58) – (05:12)

  • Alex: "He wanted to earn it. Wanted to earn, wanted to learn. I like that."
    (05:16)

  • Mike: "Ovechkin has a record breaking 65 empty net goals in his career. So he has more than Gretzky. I hold that against him."
    (05:21)

  • Unknown Speaker: "Shouldn't have scored the first two if they didn't want them to pull the goalie. Think about it."
    (05:29)

---

5. Conclusion and Reflections

Timestamp [05:29] – End

The segment wraps up with the hosts reflecting on Ovechkin's achievements and the implications of altering scoring rules. While the proposal to modify goal values didn't gain consensus, it sparked an engaging debate highlighting the hosts' deep understanding and passion for hockey.

• Billy: "I was so bothered by Ovechkin saying that he didn't want the empty net goal."
  (04:53)

• Alex: "I like his approach to wanting to earn the goal."
  (05:16)

Despite differing opinions, the discussion underscores the complexity of balancing player achievements with game integrity.

---

6. Notable Quotes

• Greg on Blues' Performance:
  "They are scorching hot. Monte and them boys are finally clicking on all cylinders over there."
  (01:30)

• Billy on Ducks' Resilience:
  "The Ducks have been eliminated from the postseason already, but you know these scrappy Ducks, they're not just going to roll over here to the Flames."
  (02:45)

• Alex on Scoring Rules:
  "I want to make that change in the NHL. It'll never happen because it messes with history."
  (03:29)

• Mike on Ovechkin vs. Gretzky:
  "Ovechkin has a record breaking 65 empty net goals in his career. So he has more than Gretzky. I hold that against him."
  (05:21)

---

7. Key Takeaways

• Betting Insights:
  The hosts provided in-depth analysis of hockey teams' performances, offering strategic betting picks with detailed reasoning behind each choice.

• Innovative Thinking:
  Alex introduced a novel concept to modify NHL scoring rules, sparking a thoughtful debate on the potential benefits and challenges of such changes.

• Player Achievements vs. Game Integrity:
  The discussion highlighted the tension between celebrating individual player achievements and maintaining the traditional integrity of the game.

• Engaging Banter:
  The dynamic interaction among the hosts kept the conversation lively and engaging, balancing statistical analysis with personal opinions.

---

For fans of sports analysis and lively discussions on hockey and beyond, this episode of "The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz" offers valuable insights and entertaining debates. Whether you're interested in betting strategies or contemplating changes to NHL rules, the hosts provide a comprehensive and engaging perspective.

Transcript

[Sponsor Voice]

This is a message from sponsor Intuit. TurboTax Taxes was dealing with piles of paperwork and frustrating forms and then waiting and wondering and worrying if you were going to get any money back. NowTaxes is easily uploading your forms to a TurboTax expert who's matched to your unique tax situation. An expert who's backed by the latest technology which cross checks millions of Data points for 100% accuracy. While they work on your taxes, you get real time updates on their progress and then you get the most money back guaranteed. All while you go about your day. No stressing, no worrying, no waiting. Now this is taxes intuit TurboTax. Get an expert NAB on TurboTax.com only available with TurboTax live full service real time updates only in iOS mobile app. See guaranteed [e-mail] guarantees.

[Mike]

That'S right. It's time for against the spread. And it's brought to you by our friends at DraftKings. DraftKings. The Crown is yours. Mike, start us off.

[Greg]

I'm gonna write a hot hand in hockey. By the way, we did some number crunching on the total succession rate conversion rate on pass power plays in the NHL. Right now it's as good as it's been since the mid-80s. You won't have a team setting records the way that the Edmonton Oilers did, but the floor is a lot higher now in the NHL. So the St. Louis Blues have won nine out of their last 10. They are scorching hot. Monte and them boys are finally clicking on all cylinders over there. They have a tough test today at Edmonton, but I'm gonna ride the hotter team. I'm gonna go alt spread here. Gotta take a chance. Gonna take Blues minus one and a half on a road.

[Billy]

Against us.

[Greg]

It wasn't done to cash that in at hopefully over plus 240 juice against the spread.

[Mike]

Usually when you say the spread, yeah.

[Greg]

But it's just I'm taking an alt spread. So it's like juicy accountability.

[Mike]

That's on me.

[Greg]

No, no, it's all right.

[Billy]

Yeah. My turn again.

[Mike]

Let's go to Billy.

[Billy]

All right. I'm gonna stay on the ice in the Calgary flag. Flames are headed to Anaheim to take on the Ducks. Your Ducks. I've been big on the Ducks this year. Now you look head to head. The Calgary Flames three wins, no losses against the Ducks so far by scores of 4141 and 32 in overtime, the Flames have lost 4 of their last 7, 4 of their last 11 and 14 of their last 25 on the other hand, the Ducks have lost 3 of their last 7, 6 of their last 11, and 313 of their last 25. The Ducks have been eliminated from the postseason already, but you know these scrappy Ducks, they're not just going to roll over here to the Flames, who are still in playoff contention. That's why I'm going to take the Anaheim Ducks plus one and a half tonight against the spring.

[Sponsor Voice]

What an odd game to take.

[Greg]

So you're laying the. So four out of their last seven, but also four out of their last 11.

[Billy]

Yeah. They had a win streak in there.

[Sponsor Voice]

Yeah.

[Alex]

Okay.

[Sponsor Voice]

Makes sense.

[Mike]

All right, Greg, bring us home.

[Sponsor Voice]

Plus one and a half.

[Greg]

Right.

[Billy]

Plus one and a half for the Ducks. I guess.

[Alex]

I think power play goals should only count as half goal.

[Billy]

Ooh.

[Alex]

I. I want to make that. Yeah, I'm serious. I want to make that change in the NHL. It'll never happen because it messes with history.

[Billy]

What about empty netters?

[Alex]

Empty netters should also count as a half a goal.

[Unknown]

Would you be able to bet on quarter goals then?

[Sponsor Voice]

No.

[Alex]

No.

[Billy]

Huh?

[Sponsor Voice]

Huh.

[Unknown]

Like two and a quarter is the over tonight.

[Billy]

What if you do it past the past the blue line? Is that two goals? Maybe.

[Greg]

If I may, let me follow this logic matter.

[Alex]

Yeah.

[Greg]

A power play goal should only count as half a goal because you have a person advantage, right?

[Billy]

Yes.

[Alex]

Right.

[Greg]

But you have a person disadvantage most times. Again, when you have an empty net situation.

[Billy]

One and a half.

[Sponsor Voice]

One and a half goal.

[Billy]

Yeah. If you are the on the opposite end of a power play, it's one and a half.

[Unknown]

Makes a lot of sense. Mike. I don't know what you're not understanding.

[Alex]

Right, right.

[Mike]

What's the short handed goal worth now?

[Sponsor Voice]

2.

[Alex]

You know, I haven't thought of that.

[Billy]

That's what I'm saying. One and a half.

[Sponsor Voice]

A shorty.

[Billy]

It's one and a half. Because if it's. It's half one way, one and a half the other way.

[Alex]

Let's be reasonable. That would never happen.

[Billy]

What?

[Alex]

The half goal.

[Billy]

Short handed goal.

[Alex]

The half goal for a power play goal is legit. That could happen. Devaluing the empty net goal is something that I would take a long hard look at. Ovechkin, to his credit, said that he would not score his record breaking goal on an empty net, which I thought was nice.

[Mike]

Oh, you got to just score it.

[Sponsor Voice]

Don't you like the five on four, though? Like, the action picks up, the pace picks up.

[Alex]

I like it for the game.

[Sponsor Voice]

In fact, I would say it should always be five on four. That team should have to leave someone on the defensive side, on the offensive side.

[Mike]

No bad ideas here. No bad ideas. We're just spitballing.

[Alex]

Yeah.

[Greg]

I was so bothered by Ovechkin saying that he didn't want the empty net goal.

[Mike]

Oh, he got it.

[Alex]

Really? You take it.

[Sponsor Voice]

It would have been a hat trick.

[Greg]

It would have been cool. Like, again, he missed like a season and a half due to work stoppages, and he had Covid impact him like, we got it, man. You're good. You've had enough obstacles. It's all right. Have. Have one empty netter on us.

[Alex]

He wanted to earn it. Wanted to earn, wanted to learn. I like that.

[Sponsor Voice]

Yeah, but it's not his fault. They took the goalie out. Take the goal when you can get the goal.

[Alex]

I wouldn't do it.

[Sponsor Voice]

Gretzky would have taken that goal.

[Mike]

Ovechkin has a record breaking 65 empty net goals in his career. So he has more than Gretzky. I hold that against him.

[Alex]

I do, too.

[Unknown]

Shouldn't have scored the first two if they didn't want them to pull the goalie. Think about it.