Postgame Show: Dan's One Good Call

Summary

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The Dan Le Batard Show with Stugotz

Episode: Postgame Show: Dan's One Good Call
Date: October 7, 2025
Location: Elser Hotel, Downtown Miami

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Episode Overview

In this lively postgame episode, Dan Le Batard, Stugotz, and the crew reflect on memorable sports predictions (primarily Dan’s “one good call”), breakdown recent football action, trade notes on betting against the spread, and revel in the latest quirks and storylines within both college and NFL football. Featuring their usual blend of playful criticism, hot takes, and inside jokes, the group shifts between self-deprecation for bad predictions and celebrating surprisingly accurate ones—all delivered in their signature tone of irreverence and camaraderie.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Dan’s History of (Mostly) Bad Sports Takes

• Playful Recap: The show opens with a playful litany of Dan’s famously incorrect hot takes: predicting Bill Belichick would dominate, worrying the Dolphins defense is historically bad, and doubting Tom Brady before he won another ring.
  • Notable line (00:08): “Dan might have been right about one thing. I know if you're a listener that's surprising. Cause Dan thought Brady's career was done before he won form a ring somehow.”

2. Confessions of Bad Predictions

• Mike’s Regret: Mike admits the worst prediction he’s made centers on Nick Saban’s success, calling it his most haunting miss.
  • Mike (01:37): “I don't think I have a worse one than Nick Saban. Being wrong on Nick Saban…that one's going to be the one that sticks to me…”
• Quarterback Misjudgments:
  • Billy (01:57): Ribs Mike for missing “the cement feet” of Mike Glennon during his pro day.
  • Mike (02:01): Defends the call, reasoning the NFL used to value less mobile QBs.

3. College QB Evaluations & Trevor Lawrence’s Appeal

• What Makes Lawrence Special: Mike and Danae praise Trevor Lawrence for his athleticism and playmaking, particularly noting his promising progression—when he avoids turnovers.
  • Mike (02:14): “The throws that he makes… you're like, oh shit. That's as well as a ball that can be thrown by a human being.”
  • Danae (02:33): “You take away all those turnovers and he's a great quarterback.”

4. Against the Spread: Betting Picks and College Football Deep Dives

• South Florida vs North Texas: Billy spotlights the QB battle and unique names—Drew Messmaker vs Reece Poffenbarger—then chooses South Florida to win.
  • Billy (02:58): “Many people are saying the winner of this game is in prime position to make the College Football Playoff… I’m going to take South Florida.”
• Giants vs Eagles: Danae forecasts a breakout for Saquon Barkley but sees the Eagles covering against a weak Giants run defense.
  • Danae (03:57): “Saquon Barkley going against a Giants defenseless against the run… Big night for Barkley.”

5. South Florida’s Surprising Strength

• Mike’s Observations: Details South Florida’s offensive explosion, noting two wild stats—a rash of dropped passes that didn’t derail them, and a 35-point game in under seven minutes.
  • Mike (04:22): “South Florida is a legitimately good football team. What they were against Florida is more representative… than what it is that they showed against Miami.”

6. University of Miami Football’s Versatility

• Billy & Mike’s Breakdown:
  • Miami’s schedule and the various ways the team can win are discussed at length, with the hosts expressing rare optimism given the team’s history.
  • Mike (04:51): “Miami’s got the most ways to beat you since… the beginning of 2001.”
• Short previews: Louisville, Stanford, and SMU are noted as upcoming tests, especially with “spooky” Halloween weekend games.

7. Shannon Dawson Soundbite and Miami’s Confident Attitude

• Shannon Dawson (06:13): “You choose to take that away. Fine. Your corners better be able to cover. And theirs didn’t.”
• The crew enjoys the brashness of the Miami coordinators, with Billy and Mike noting the team’s swagger and growing confidence at 5-0.

8. Strange Stats & NFL Oddities

• Mike’s Quiz Segment:
  • Carson Wentz’s perfect drive in London, David Montgomery’s passing TD equaling Jake Browning’s, and Jalen Hurts not throwing a home interception in 10.5 games.
  • Mike (08:05): “David Montgomery has as many passing touchdowns this season as Jake Browning.”
• Crew’s Reaction: General disbelief and banter about the veracity or meaningfulness of these odd statistics.
  • Billy (08:42): “Jake Browning has six touchdown passes. It’s impossible. This can't be right.”
  • Danae (08:49): “No wonder I was surprised.”

9. Lighter Notes from Recent Games

• Tyreek Hill’s Happy Ambulance Video: The group shares a light segment on Tyreek Hill’s upbeat demeanor even while in an ambulance.
  • Shannon (08:57): “People were saying, wow, look at him on the sideline… We found a video of him, and he was just as happy in the back of the ambulance.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Dan's track record:
  “Dan might have been right about one thing. I know if you're a listener that's surprising.” – Mike (00:08)
• On Nick Saban:
  “Being wrong on Nick Saban…that one's going to be the one that sticks to me…" – Mike (01:37)
• On QBs with ‘cement feet’:
  “All the quarterbacks before him had cement feet. Like that's how that was.” – Mike (02:01)
  “I thought Ryan Mallet was going to be a superstar. Rest in peace legend.” – Billy (02:10)
• On Trevor Lawrence:
  “The throws that he makes… that's as well as a ball that can be thrown by a human being.” – Mike (02:14)
• On South Florida football:
  “Six of their receivers dropped passes that were just bubble screens thrown at their chest…they've got a lot of talent.” – Mike (04:22)
• On Miami’s resurgence:
  “Miami’s got the most ways to beat you since… the beginning of 2001.” – Mike (04:51)
• Shannon Dawson’s bravado:
  “You choose to take that away. Fine. Your corners better be able to cover. And theirs didn’t.” – Shannon Dawson (06:13, 07:12)
• NFL stat absurdity:
  “David Montgomery has as many passing touchdowns this season as Jake Browning.” – Mike (08:05)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:08 – Roasting Dan's prediction track record
• 01:37 – Mike on his Saban regret and QB evaluation misfires
• 02:14 – Trevor Lawrence praise
• 02:58 – Against the Spread: College football picks
• 03:57 – NFL Week 6 preview and Barkley prediction
• 04:22 – South Florida’s bizarre game stats
• 04:51 – Miami Hurricanes versatility and potential
• 06:13 – Shannon Dawson’s assessment and Miami’s newfound swagger
• 08:05 – Mike’s strange NFL stats quiz
• 08:57 – Tyreek Hill ambulance video and show banter

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Tone and Style

The episode maintains the show’s classic irreverent, banter-filled tone, with frequent joshing among hosts, tongue-in-cheek self-critique, and genuine excitement for both the absurd and the brilliant moments in football.

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Summary

This postgame edition delivers everything longtime listeners expect: deeply South Florida-centric sports talk, tongue-in-cheek self-awareness about bad takes, spirited optimism for the Miami Hurricanes, and a steady supply of weird stats and moments from football’s wilder side. The episode is light on ego and heavy on fun, blending inside jokes, real analysis, and a love of the unpredictable world of sports.

Transcript

[Dan]

Dan said that Billy Belichick was gonna dominate the field. So now we gotta ask how we can trust anything he feels. Doubling down on the Dolphins defense being historically bad. Oh, wow. Danae. Way back in o thought the winless Lions would scorch Earth to take LeBron on for a game. Not Tim Duncan, but Roy Hibbert. Doubling down on this Kane's team should make um fans feel nervous now. But Dan might have been right about one thing. I know if you're a listener that's surprising. Cause Dan thought Brady's career was done before he won form a ring somehow. But Dan knew there's someone who could say to us, that's Darren Waller. Dan's one good girl.

[Mike]

I don't think I have a worse one than Nick Saban. Being wrong on Nick Saban. I think that that one's going to be the one that sticks to me worse than any of the others. Mike Glennon, I mean Mike Glennon was a pro. I saw him at NC State. He made it to the pros. I didn't think he was going to be great. I just thought he was a first round pick and I think he was.

[Billy]

You didn't see the cement feet that he had at his pro day. I saw cinder blocks.

[Mike]

I saw them. I just didn't see the position moving away from it mattering whether you had cement feet or not. Because all the quarterback before him had cement feet. Like that's how that was.

[Billy]

I thought Ryan Mallet was going to be a superstar. Rest in peace legend.

[Mike]

The Trevor Lawrence experience is at least so fun because he doesn't have cement feet. His athleticism is exceptional and the throws that he makes, when he makes them accurately are throws that you're like, oh shit. That's as well as a ball that can be thrown by a human being.

[Danae]

You take away all those turnovers and he's a great quarterback.

[Mike]

Let's do against the spread here and get out our gambling knowledge to everybody. As you saw in that song, we always get it right around here. Against the spread. Against the spread. Against the spread.

[Billy]

Against the spread is presented by DraftKings. DraftKings. The Crown is yours. Mike, I am very happy to kick us off here. There is a group of five game going down this weekend. Friday night, South Florida against North Texas. Many people are saying the winner of this game is in prime position to make the College Football Playoff. I'm gonna say a name for you guys. Do you know who Drew Messmaker is against this spread? He is the starting quarterback for the North Texas Mean Green. That's right. North Texas had a quarterback battle of a messmaker and a Poffenbarger. Reece Poffenbarger may have the worst luck since Mark Rick when it comes to backing up quarterbacks. Went to Miami and Florida had to back up Cam Ward and now he's backing up a guy that people have labeled NFL ready in Drew Messmaker. The line in this game is only a half point. I'm going to take South Florida. I think they got the athletes in this game even though I really rate the quarterback for North Texas and this is going to be a difficult road test. South Florida looks different outside of when they're playing Miami.

[Danae]

South Florida Bulls Greg Giants hosting Eagles to kick off NFL Week 6 on Thursday night, I see a big breakout game for Saquon Barkley. The Eagles cover six and a half points. Saquon Barkley going against a Giants defenseless against the run, giving up more than 140 yards. Big night for Barkley.

[Mike]

Two things involved with the University of South Florida one, I told you just yesterday that watching their game against Charlotte in the first quarter they led 23 nothing and I've never seen it before. Six of their receivers dropped passes that were just bubble screens thrown at their chest. Happened six times in the first quarter they were still up 23 nothing because they've got a lot of talent. Also against South Carolina state they scored 35 points before there were seven minutes gone in the quarter. 35 points. South Florida is a legitimately good football team. What they were against Florida is more representative of what they are than what it is that they showed against Miami. But you want to go over that University of Miami schedule, Billy, because I will double down on Miami's got the most ways to beat you since I've seen from any team University of Miami related in 23 years. Like it's been since the beginning of 2001 that I saw a team that had this many different ways that it could beat you.

[Shannon]

They have a buy coming up. Then they have Louisville can always get.

[Billy]

A little nervy on the short weeks, but they're coming off a buy. If we're shoes is on that call, I'm going to start getting nervous.

[Shannon]

Yeah, they're hosting Louisville, hosting Stanford and.

[Billy]

Then that one should be easy.

[Shannon]

Then they finally hit the road and leave the state of Florida at smu.

[Billy]

I'll be there.

[Shannon]

Tricky one.

[Billy]

Can be spooky. Halloween weekend Louisville spooky.

[Mike]

Louisville will be a challenge. Can I hear from Shannon Dawson here, please, because this is funny. Florida State was Intent on taking away the run. So they took away the run. All of a sudden Miami's got a big play offense and here you've got a coordinator feeling the cockiness that all the coaches on this team are feeling right now at 5 and oh, I.

[Shannon Dawson]

Don'T look at it in the sense of we were, you know, lacking in the run game. That's just what they chose to take away. Good. Like you know, you choose to take that away. Fine. Your corners better be able to cover. And there's didn't.

[Billy]

Shannon knew that was going to happen. It's a bar at the end. Shannon. I texted Dan before. We're going to take some deep shots. These guys can't cover because Florida State, weird, they've done a fair amount of talking after they got their asses kicked. Castellano said they didn't really stop us. We stopped ourselves with the turnovers. I guess you were responsible yourselves for the turnovers, not the constant pressure. And the DC said we knew what they were going to do on offense. Again, Miami can beat you any number of ways. As Dan mentioned, we don't have imaging for. I texted Dan before.

[Mike]

No, but he did. He told me exactly the way that game was.

[Billy]

Deep shots.

[Mike]

He happened to know. Let me just see that smirk on Dawson again. Play the whole thing. Because those last few words weren't necessary. He could have controlled himself, but he's feeling pretty good about five and oh.

[Shannon Dawson]

I don't look at it in the sense of we were, you know, lacking in the run game. That's just what they chose to take away. Good. Like you know, you choose to take that away. Fine. Your corners better be able to cover.

[Shannon]

And there's didn't nice eyes go up there?

[Billy]

Didn't Crystal ball retweeted that twice.

[Mike]

I want to ask you guys from this set of stats, okay, Pick one. I want you guys to pick one from among all of these that you like the best. Okay? Carson Wentz went 9 for 9 on that last drive from London. It's the best that any quarterback has done three minutes or fewer left in a game since 2000. The Broncos had not trailed in the fourth quarter before trailing to the Eagle. David Montgomery has as many passing touchdowns this season as Jake Browning.

[Billy]

Huh?

[Mike]

You heard that right. David Montgomery has as many passing touchdowns this season as Jake Browning. And the Jalen Hurts hasn't thrown a interception at home in ten and a half games. Any of those impressive to you?

[Billy]

Yeah, those are good.

[Danae]

Yeah. I mean Jake Browning is. Is not the end. You know, when they lost Burrow. Their season's done. You know who expected Jake Browning to throw a bunch of touchdown passes? Montgomery throws one.

[Billy]

Jake Browning has six touchdown passes. It's impossible. This can't be right. It can't be.

[Mike]

Is that not right?

[Billy]

It can't.

[Danae]

No wonder I was surprised.

[Billy]

You should have stuck around right after the. The Stephen Hawking video. Montgomery throwing seven touchdown passes. Check your sources.

[Shannon]

See the video of Tyreek in the ambulance last week?

[Danae]

I did not.

[Shannon]

People were saying, wow, look at him on the sideline. We've never seen someone as happy as he was on the sideline. And then we found a video of him, and he was just as happy in the back of the ambulance. It's kind of crazy. Yeah. Maybe they'll pull it up here, make news. We look at the stats here.

[Mike]

All right, you can. That's good to do that to the video team at the very end of the show when they're not ready for it. So David Montgomery has one.

[Billy]

I can also tell you a real stat, which is that Trevor Lawrence scrambled almost 23 yards on his 1 yard touchdown run. Is that red zone touchdown passes. What is this?

[Mike]

That's probably what it was.

[Shannon]

Maybe.