The Dan Patrick Show – Hour 3 Podcast Summary

Date: January 27, 2026
Guests: Sam Schwartzstein (Amazon Prime Football Analytics Expert), Reggie Miller (NBA Hall of Famer)
Host: Dan Patrick (with Danettes)

Overview:

This episode dives deep into the role of analytics in sports, featuring a robust discussion with football analytics expert Sam Schwartzstein and NBA Hall of Famer Reggie Miller. The trio examines how analytics intersect with gut feeling in coaching decisions, evolving attitudes in the NFL and NBA, memorable stories from Stanford football, the changing landscape of NBA strategy, and lively debates about MVPs, trade rumors, and league culture.

Key Discussion Points

1. Analytics vs. Gut Feeling in Sports Decision-Making

(02:17–13:22)

• Polls & Listener Sentiments:
  • Audience poll: "Which wins more games—gut feelings or analytics?" Over 70% chose gut feeling.
  • Preference for new NFL head coach: “hot young assistant” favored over “older established coach”.
• Fixing in Sports: Lighthearted speculation if games are fixed, referencing recent NFL promotions & point-shaving scandals.
• The 4th-and-1 Debate (Broncos):
  • Schwartzstein walks through how analytics models assign probabilities to plays, how play design impacts those probabilities, and the challenge of adapting in-game (wind, defense adjustments, exhaustion of play options).
  • “When I used to consult with teams, I’d say just like you have a third-down period, you should start thinking about having a fourth-down period and new play designs. Things like the Tush Push come out of it.” — Sam Schwartzstein (06:05)
  • Dan Patrick questions if analytics could become obsolete when both teams employ similar models.

Standout Quotes:

• Sam Schwartzstein [06:05]:
  “You’re hitting the nail on the head. And a large part of the decision making process in analytics as you say is the conversion probability.”

• Sam Schwartzstein [12:10]:
  "From my point of view, I lean heavily on the analytics, and that drives my gut feeling... Where I think gut feeling can come in is the same thing about those numbers. If I know you aren't going to blitz from your numbers, it can be a tendency breaker and can beat me."

• On Playoff Pressure:
  “So much of the game is hinged on about six plays. We play 130 scrimmage plays per game, but six plays decide the game—just like being at the poker table.” — Sam Schwartzstein [13:31]

2. Fun with Football Stories & Stanford Days

• Harbaugh and Analytics:
  Jim Harbaugh (Stanford) was tendency-driven, backed by Greg Roman, Vic Fangio, and creative systems like the “kill and alert”.
  David Shaw (another coach) was “similar—bought into whatever helped win.”
• ‘Moving The Ball’ Trick:
  Schwartzstein describes, with humor, how he used to subtly advance the ball in short-yardage, benefiting Stanford’s fourth-down conversion rate until Notre Dame caught on.
  • "In the Fiesta Bowl, I got two offsides penalties called on Oklahoma State... But Notre Dame’s Shawn Hockley made sure to yell at me every play that game—and we lost in overtime. Not that the scars are still there..." — Sam Schwartzstein [16:26]

3. Transition to NBA: Reggie Miller on Analytics & the Modern Game

(21:19–37:09)

• Reggie’s Appearance on Fallon: Promotion for Sunday Night Basketball debut with Mike Tirico and Jamal Crawford (Lakers vs. Knicks).
• Player Availability:
  Reggie and Dan lament how player rest and injuries affect modern NBA viewership:
  • “Isn’t it sad that you even have to think about [who’s playing]? …We never thought about that back in the day.” — Reggie Miller [22:47]
• Giannis Trade Rumors:
  Uncertainty discussed over whether Giannis will play for the Bucks again.
  • “There seems to be writing on the wall… It may be beneficial for them [Bucks] to clear the books and close this chapter.” — Reggie Miller [23:36]

Notable NBA Analytics Insights:

• Analytics entered the NBA mid-2000s, emphasizing threes, free throws, and layups over midrange shots.

  • "Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown used to look at me crazy for taking threes—he was livid!" — Reggie Miller [26:02]

• Evolution of the Three-Point Shot:
  Coaches like Rick Pitino (Providence), Paul Westhead (Loyola), and Don Nelson (Warriors) were trailblazers in embracing the three.

  • “Assistant coaches are taking threes now from the bench!” — Reggie Miller [26:43]

4. Slam Dunk Contest & Three-Point Contest

• Mac McClung’s Absence:
  Reggie ponders why the slam dunk champ isn’t returning for a fourth title, arguing the three-point contest has now overtaken the dunk contest for fan excitement.
• Proposes Past vs. Present 3-Point Contest:
  Pairing legends with current stars for a head-to-head shootout.
  • “I would do that in a heartbeat... Us old timers would need a handicap, but it would be cool to see.” — Reggie Miller [30:09]

5. Quick Hits: Hall of Fame, Trades, and Lakers Outlook

• Derrick Rose:
  Reggie believes he’ll make the Hall of Fame, not necessarily on the first ballot, but “he was electrifying, I would’ve paid money to watch him play.” [31:57]
• Chicago Basketball:
  “The two people I always think about in Chicago: number one, Derrick Rose; Isaiah Thomas, too. …Isaiah needs to be mentioned as one of the great Chicago athletes of all time.” — Reggie Miller [33:06]
• Lakers Threat Level:
  With the trade deadline tension, current roster has “a puncher’s chance” due to LeBron and their star power but faces issues when exposed in playoff series.
  • “When you get locked into a series, things start to get taken away and things start to get exposed.” — Reggie Miller [35:03]
• Memphis rumors & Player Agents:
  Reggie calls out Rich Paul for public trade proposals involving his own clients: “If you’re Rich Paul, you can’t do it... now if I’m AR (Austin Reaves), I’m looking at LeBron like, really? This is how you think of me?”

Notable Listener Interaction

(43:12–47:48)

• Callers engage in the analytics vs. gut debate with chess and boxing analogies, referencing Bobby Fischer’s English Opening and Ali’s rope-a-dope, concluding with the controversial 1972 Olympic basketball final as a “fixed” game.
• A lighthearted segment about possible Notre Dame concerts (Creed, Luke Combs, AC/DC) closes out with show banter.

Memorable Quotes

• Dan Patrick [05:49]:
  “Just feels like if we said probability, people wouldn’t have as much of a problem as analytics. Analytics sounds like ‘I’m smarter than you,’ as opposed to probability.”
• Sam Schwartzstein [13:31]:
  “So much of the game is hinged on about six plays...You can win over time playing small hands, but you get rich playing the big hands. You can also bust.”
• Reggie Miller [26:43]:
  “It just is not the point guard or the shooting guards. I mean, assistant coaches are taking threes now from the bench.”
• Reggie Miller [31:57]:
  “I would have paid money to watch Derrick Rose. He was that electrifying.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:17] Polls, sports fixing discussion
• [04:22] Interview begins with Sam Schwartzstein on analytics and play calling
• [10:49] Broncos’ 4th and 1 case study
• [13:31] Pressure on playoff decisions
• [16:01] Schwartzstein’s stories from Stanford
• [21:19] Reggie Miller joins, talks NBA primetime, player rest
• [23:36] Giannis trade rumors and impact
• [25:10] History of analytics in the NBA
• [26:39] Three-point revolution
• [28:25] Bucks vs. Sixers, Mac McClung, All-Star events
• [30:09] Reggie on senior/junior three-point contest
• [31:22] Derrick Rose’s Hall of Fame case
• [33:06] Chicago basketball legends
• [34:12] Lakers’ trade scenario and threat level
• [35:24] Rich Paul/Lakers/Austin Reaves controversy

Tone & Style

The episode maintains Dan Patrick’s classic irreverence, Reggie Miller’s playful wisdom, and Sam Schwartzstein’s analytical precision, yielding a lively, insightful conversation with entertaining personal stories and fan interaction.

For Listeners Who Missed The Episode:

• The show provides a clear, nuanced look at how analytics inform real in-game decisions, the cultural and historical pushback against “analytics” vs. “probability,” and how these debates play out in both football and basketball.
• Reggie Miller offers perspective on NBA evolution, brings nostalgic and comic relief, and openly shares his views on MVPs, star power, and league storylines.
• Listeners come away with thoughtful takes on why gut feeling and data both matter—and plenty of fun stories from behind the scenes.