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Trump says the Iran ceasefire is on “life support,” and that single phrase tells you everything about how shaky the strategy is when the demands don’t overlap. John Faber, John Lovett, and Tommy Tork unpack why a one page memo blew up the talks, why “Iran can’t have a nuclear weapon” isn’t a plan, and what it means when the Strait of Hormuz becomes Iran’s most valuable leverage in the region. We get into the real stakes for U.S. foreign policy, global oil markets, and the ugly menu of options left when military escalation, blockade pressure, and a face saving “victory” all come with major costs.

From there, we follow the ripple effects into the rest of Trump world. The administration floats a federal gas tax holiday as prices rise, while also racking up taxpayer costs through flashy projects and “security” spending that looks a lot like grift. Trump even tosses out making Venezuela the 51st state, a proposal that’s equal parts imperial fantasy and oil obsession, and we talk through why it collapses under even basic scrutiny.

We also look ahead to Trump’s China trip and what could be on the table: Taiwan arms sales, bargaining leverage tied to the Strait of Hormuz, and the rare area where competition might still require cooperation, AI safety and crisis communication. The back half shifts to U.S. politics with Virginia redistricting fallout and how gerrymandering can tilt the House math, before closing on AOC, Jeff Bezos, billionaire influence, and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy’s sponsor backed road trip reality show.

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