A (29:44)
This is the second time that Donald Trump has done this exact thing. The putting aside the Argentina thing, for, for a moment, versions of this exact same thing happened during Donald Trump's first term. And now, I guess, under the guise of helping Argentina, Trump is again messing with farmers. We're now selling zero soybeans to China. China's fine. They found new partners. It's the American farmers that will get screwed long term. And even experts are saying this isn't going to fix anything. Argentina simply doesn't produce enough beef to really make a dent in the American market. We are hurting American farmers and ranchers for no real reason. It's just to give Donald Trump more money to send to his friends. Colin Woodall from the National Cattlemen's Beef association said Trump's plan harms American ranchers while creating chaos. I think that's true. This is what happens when you elect a guy who doesn't understand economics and who thinks dealmaking is yelling, you're fired or take the deal. And calling Michael Flynn in the middle of the night to say, is a strong dollar or a weak dollar good for the United States? Trump did that during his first term. When a reporter asked Trump, how are American farmers going to feel by what you're doing here? Trump said condescendingly, argentina is fighting for its life, young lady. That was Trump's response. The America first guy goes, they're fighting for their life, young lady. Thomas Massie, a Republican congressman that Trump wants out, said, this is not America First. We don't need the US Flooded with beef from Argentina. So Trump's farmers are now furious. Economists don't understand what the hell Trump is doing. And some Republicans are now starting to call Trump a sellout. This is worse than a bad trade deal. This is really just a long term fiasco and the worst part of it. And I, I think a lot of people don't really get this. You can't fix this now if you just undo the tariffs. I think Trump is holding hope that when it gets too politically difficult or if it gets too politically difficult, he can just go, oh, I'm canceling the tariffs. I'm going to reverse this. That the other thing, China's gone. China on soy has found other places to get it. Those other countries are thrilled. China's thrilled. They've cut the United States out. They can show we don't really need to do what you want us to do. We'll do what's best for us. And if Trump were to back off the tariffs. I don't really see any reason for China to go, okay, okay, we'll cancel all the deals we made with these other countries. Trump, if he wants to get some of these deals back, is likely to have to not only back off of the tariffs, but then go to these countries and say, I'm going to give you an extra sweetener, an extra element for you to come back. And so that could end up costing us more than just having done nothing to begin with would have done. So the irony is tragic. The America first president is now importing other countries beef because he can't even manage America's own. And when the dust settles, I hope at least the farmers realize who's to blame. Not all, but most farmers and ranchers did support Donald Trump in 2024. I hope that when it's all said and done, obviously, that they get to keep their livelihood. I never wish for anyone to lose their livelihood, but I hope they understand why this happened and who did it. In Trump's America, loyalty is this one way street. You've got to be loyal to Trump, but he doesn't have to be loyal to you. It would be nice if at least there were some political repercussions to this absolute disaster. I've been using Graza olive oil for years, and I am super excited that Graza is now a sponsor of the show. Graza olive oil is always fresh. It's never blended. They use one olive from one region in Spain. No mysterious blends. It's a traceable and fresher product. And the packaging is super practical. None of these messy, drippy spouts. Graza oils come in easy to use, squeeze and spray bottles. They've got three types. Super simple. Frizzle for high smoke, point cooking, sizzle for everyday cooking, and drizzle, which is more for garnishes and dressings. I've been using Graza Oil in my house for years. I love everything about it. My audience gets 10% off the trio, which comes with all three varieties they offer in a squeezy bottle. So you're for every style of cooking, go to graza.co and use the code Pacman. The link is in the description. All right, I want to talk about something that feels almost inevitable at this point. We are watching the Trump bubble crack in real time, and I don't believe the question any longer is whether it burst. I think the question is when does it burst and what impact does it have when it does? Because here's the thing. Every political movement built on a cult of personality eventually collapses. Sometimes it collapses with the death of the cult leader, but it always collapses. We look at history, we see it, and we're seeing the pressure build. So I want to take a little bit of a look at what's actually happening. The approval rating is sliding. We see that not catastrophically over the last few months, not all at once, but it is steadily sliding. It's like air leaking from a tire. And even in red states, even among Republicans, you're seeing slippage. The true believers will tell you, oh, but the polls are fake. But what they can explain, and Republican politicians are nervous, is that if they really thought that everything was fine, they wouldn't be hedging the way they are. The MAGA base is very loud online, very passionate, but if you look at their fundraising numbers, they're down. If you look at the Ride or die people from 2016 who doubled down in 2020 and maybe were with them in 2024, some of them are pretty tired. Some of them are broke from donating to Trump. Time and again, some of them are realizing that the things Trump promised aren't materializing. They're not going to materialize. And then you've got the Republican infighting, Thomas Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene, occasionally Rand Paul, when the demagogue starts to weaken, the knives often come out. It's another trend that we see. And so you've got Republicans who were too scared to criticize Trump in the past developing a spine. Not most of them, but some of them. You see some governors distancing themselves. You see senators who voted to acquit him twice suddenly having diplomatic things to say about the future of the party and, you know, looking inward. And so what it seems like is happening is that a bunch of Republicans kind of smell blood in the water. They're doing the math. They see a nearly 80 year old guy, legal challenges to so much of what he's doing, an economy that's not delivering, losing support among the base, blanket tariffs. And they might be thinking, his time is coming and maybe my time is coming. And so what the bursting will probably look like is not one moment. It's gradual. A thousand small defections. You know, the local Republican who stops mentioning Trump and campaign ads. We've seen that the Fox News host who covers him a little bit less, testing the waters. We've seen that the mega donor that says, I'm going to shift a little bit of money somewhere else, which we've also seen. And then one day the people who were all in start Looking around and realizing we are in shrinking company here. The thing they based their entire political identity on may deflate. Now, there's a psychological need not to feel like you wasted years on a loser. And they may be looking for an exit ramp now. Some won't actually leave. Every single cult has the die hards who go down with the ship. But the casual supporters, the kind of transactional Republicans who back Trump because he won, the people who like that he made liberals mad, you know, they're looking for the door. And what can accelerate the collapse is losing. And Trump is setting himself up to lose. The economy he promised is not materializing. The policies aren't working, the approval numbers are dropping. And when the dear leader stops getting political wins, the spell can break. When the pitch was, I'm a winner and I'll make you win when and you don't win, what is left? Now there's also the generational component, which I think is worth mentioning. You know, young Republicans who aren't MAGA believers, they're thinking about the next 30 years. And the next 30 years does not include Donald Trump. It might include Donald Trump Jr. God forbid, but they're not going to hitch their wagon to, you know, the sinking ship of a 79 year old. The prediction for me is as follows. When the bubble bursts, it will ultimately burst quickly. We will go from the inevitability of Trump's legacy to who would Trump? I don't know. We're kind of between, you know, J.D. vance and whoever. But there's going to be very little discussion of Donald Trump because a lot of these strongmen leaders, a lot of these, these people at the top of a cult of personality, they seem invincible until all of a sudden they're not. And Trump's comeback has been much weaker than the original. Lower energy, a much more fragile movement. And the historical revisionism I expect when Trump is finally done is going to make your head spin. Fox is going to pivot so quickly they'll find the next strongman, the next con man. But the version of Trump we see right now is definitely on borrowed time. So watch for the signs, watch for the donors hedging their bets. The pressure is building. The base is exhausted. I believe it is eventually going to collapse spectacularly. And that is not in the scenario where Trump dies in office, which there are a lot of people saying, obese, nearly 80 year old. The actuarial tables aren't good. He's clearly lying about his health. I'm not even dealing with that scenario. I believe that the Implosion is ultimately going to be absolutely nuts. Ambitious politicians will start circling and there is going to be a whole Trump who kind of thing. Earlier in the week, I told you that if New England plus New York wanted to secede and make their own country, it would be one of the wealthiest and most successful countries in the world. The red states really can't secede because they depend on the blue states. What I want to talk about today is related to that, but it's different. This. It really should be a massive political scandal. In fact, red states keep getting poorer. It is not an accident. This is predictably the result based on the policy they support. Look at some of the poorest states in the country. Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Arkansas, West Virginia, Kentucky. They're all red states. They're all solidly Republican. They are all getting poorer. We keep hearing Republicans are going to turn these places around. And meanwhile we find the richest states. Massachusetts, New York, California, Connecticut, Minnesota. They are all blue states, states with the highest minimum wages, and yet they are still doing better. Stronger worker protections and more union members, and they are still doing better. Better funded schools, and they're still doing better social safety nets, and they're still doing better. And if we look around the world, and I mentioned this on Tuesday, you see Denmark, you see Sweden, you see Norway, you see countries with strong socially democratic policies ranking highest in prosperity, happiness, health outcomes, economic mobility, universal health care, strong education systems, worker protections. They have all the things that Republicans like to say will destroy a state. And yet the most successful countries around the world and the most successful states in the US Share those socially democratic policies. They are not socialist hellholes. It's still capitalism. The American states that most closely mirror that model are the most prosperous. The connection is not subtle. You look at the red states and what's happening. They cut taxes on the rich. They promise jobs and promotions, prosperity. It doesn't happen. The revenue disappears. So they slash their education budgets, they slash health care, they slash infrastructure. Things get even worse. And then they act shocked when businesses don't want to relocate there. Well, the schools are terrible and there's crumbling roads and low access to health care. Why would we go there? Kansas actually tried this. We covered this extensively when it was going on. The Kansas experiment was massive tax cuts that were going to create an economic boom. They were going to be so attractive to businesses and to others that it's going to create an economic boom. And it didn't happen. The state fell apart. Schools started closing early, roads fell apart. Even Republicans reverse course, did other Red states learn. No, they go, what we need is the same thing Kansas did. Mississippi, one of the poorest states, said, let's cut taxes for the wealthy. Doesn't work. Their schools are a disaster on average, and they're going to get even worse. They reject the Medicaid expansion. So now you've got rural hospitals that are closing, but the rich in corporations got their tax breaks right. What drives me nuts about this is that these states survive despite their mismanagement, thanks to federal subsidies coming disproportionately from blue states. California and New York send way more money to Washington than they get back. And then Washington sends the money to the red states that are failing thanks to their own disastrous policies. Mississippi gets way more money out than what they pay in. You also have to talk about the brain drain. Young people who get educated in red states leave for where the good jobs are, where the salaries are higher, where their rights are protected. That is not red states. That is blue states on average. But Republicans keep saying, oh, you know these coastal elites. And there's a little bit of population that's moving from California and New York to Texas and Florida. But the big picture here is that these red states aren't doing well. The welfare programs in blue states are not causing the problem that Republicans predict. Critical race theory, which they don't understand and isn't actually something being taught. It's not causing a problem for the blue states, but what is making red states poorer and poorer is they keep electing people who run on making government not work, then government doesn't work and the state suffers. You come in and you sabotage education and you got worker protections and you reject federal funding. And then you point at the wreckage and you go, look, government doesn't work well. It's government that they are voting for and government the way that they are doing it. And meanwhile, we've got the proof. You look at Scandinavian social democracy, you go, damn, things are pretty good in Denmark and Sweden. Then you look at Massachusetts and Connecticut, you go, wow, the policies in Massachusetts and Connecticut are really similar to Denmark and Sweden. And look, life expectancy is longer, people make more money, education is better, more access to health care, better infrastructure. It's so obvious and yet they don't want to acknowledge it. If you invest in education, infrastructure and health care, people do better. States that treat governance as an ideological experiment in proving government is bad, well, they're not doing well. Their schools fail, they get poverty, and the future doesn't look so bright. So the data is clear, the pattern is undeniable. And election after election, these states are choosing the same failed policies. Will they ever learn is the question I leave you with. Sometimes the best snacks are the ones that have been around for a long time. You don't have to reinvent the wheel to get a great snack. And that is what our sponsor Masa is aiming for with their delicious tortilla chips that are made the traditional way. You know I love this stuff. Okay, Masa makes their chips with three ingredients. Organic nixtamalized corn, Redmond real sea salt and 100% grass fed beef tallow. The chip is sturdy. I don't want a weak chip that crumbles when I try to dip into the guacamole. I need a sturdy chip and that is exactly what Masa's tortilla chips do. They also are using non industrial oils which pushes the industry away from some of this unsustainable mono cropping. I also love that if you are ready to try the most delicious tortilla chips you've ever had, which are sustainably Produced, go to masachips.com/pacman and use the code PACMAN for 25% off your first order. The link is in the description. All right, let's get to some Friday feedback. You can always email info at David Pakman Dotcom, but we will feature comments from Facebook, YouTube, Substack, Spotify. You never know what will show up. We start today with Keegan Colton who says about the potential release of the Epstein files. They need time to doctor the files up and redact names. You know, there's a lot of you are thinking in the same way about these Epstein files. We asked Adelita Grijalva, if inevitably you're going to vote to release the files, why try to delay it? What difference does it make? And her explanation was, well, I will ultimately vote if given that opportunity. Eventually she's going to be sworn in. But maybe by the time she's sworn in they can come up with some other reason why the vote can't happen. But there's a bigger story here and we addressed it a couple of weeks ago, which is if Republicans at this point came out and handed us files and said here are the files, I think all of us would be extraordinarily skeptical that those are really the full complete files. And so it almost seems to me that we would more reliably believe the files are the files and the full files if they leaked. But then even if they leaked, I think there would be some suspicion that it was a calculated leak and that it is not the full files. The point is, the transparency that we were promised has so obviously fallen by the wayside that I don't know that any of us would really believe when the files are out, if they ever are, that they genuinely represent the full scope of the files, I would be extraordinarily skeptical. Let me know what you think. But I think that. That that message is absolutely spot on. Robert Sedler wrote on Facebook, the math works just fine, people. This is in regard to how Donald Trump and people around him will say they're going to reduce the price of something by a thousand percent. And we explained, hey, that doesn't really make mathematical sense. Robert says, the math works just fine, people. Example, I left my house and an hour into my drive at 75 miles per hour, I saw a cop. I reduced my speed by 654%, and within minutes I was actually back in my driveway, having never even left yet. I think I broke time and space, but still a lot of fun. Yeah. When Trump says, we're going to cut the price 700%, unless you are going to start paying people to buy the thing, the math of it doesn't make any sense. Now, I heard an explanation that a couple of magus sent in. I'm going to tell you what it is. It doesn't really make too much sense to me. But here's what they say. This is the MAGA explanation for how Trump is right, that he's going to reduce the price of something 700%. Imagine that. The cost in the United States is. You know what? I don't even want. I don't even want to put this down. I'm actually saying I don't even want to put this out there because it's so painfully stupid that I don't even want to suggest it to anybody as an explanation. The math makes no sense. All right. From the subreddit combo, Nickel says, Marjorie Taylor Greene is a morally corrupt piece of human trash. This is very aggressive. While I understand there is some entertainment value with her virtue signaling about the Epstein victims and allegedly turning on Trump, I bristle at any attempt at covering anything she says or does with even a sliver of positivity. She is a truly irredeemable ghoul. We may face her in a national election in the future, and she doesn't deserve positive press of any kind to aid her in those efforts. Not a specific critique of this show, but I've seen friendly headlines about her from media on the left. Okay, so here's my feeling on this this is a show where I report to you reality or as close to reality as I can get. And when I don't get it right, you all correct would be I don't do stuff on this show where I say I'm going to skip this story because of the indirect impact it might have if Marjorie Taylor Greene is getting it right on something that's newsworthy in my environment. So I tell it to you. I also tell you, as I did about Marjorie Taylor Greene, this doesn't make her an ally of the left. She's not a progressive. I make that clear. But what I worry about when I see posts like this is the idea that we shouldn't. Even when she says the Epstein files should be released, she's right. And if I don't acknowledge that she's right, I'm really just kind of being dishonest and doing a disservice to everybody in the audience. So I think that we should be complete in our commentary, which is she's still completely whacked out on so many different issues, but when she gets something right, then I say she got something right. All right. Someone who uses the name Dyke Muff says about my health insurance plan, which I spoke about last week, paying $747 a month for health care is insane. It would not be tolerated here in Canada. Yeah. And you know, my plan, which is 7:47amonth, it's not even by any means the most expensive plan of people I know. And in addition to that, it doesn't even include co pays. So the 747amonth is like nine grand a year for my premium. But if you've got a couple doctors visits a year with the $25 copay and a couple of specialist visits a year, you know, I have my yearly, yearly, yearly, yearly eye exam and I have a yearly dermatology appointment and all of then I'm popping out 50 bucks or whatever my copay is on that. So it's it. This is. It is what it is in the United States when you are self employed and don't have access to a group plan. It's horrifying. Horrifying. Nate neighbor Nate Burr says you are correct. David Trump is doing what he campaigned on. Same thing with Project 2025. He said he knew nothing about it when we all knew that was the plan. Perhaps these people don't actually follow the issues and just root for them like they are a sports team. Yeah, I, I'm sick of the whole we never imagined Trump would do this. Trump told us he was going to do most of this stuff. 90% of the left wing ecosystem was saying it'll probably be worse. Some people tried to write some of this stuff off as just, oh, it's Trump being Trump. He doesn't really plan to do a lot of this stuff. And we said, oh no, he does. Believe him when he tells you that what, what he's going to do. And still there are people now, Joe Rogan, Andrew Schultz, I'm forgetting some of the others from, from that ecosystem who are saying we didn't vote for this. Oh, Theo Vaughan is another one. We didn't vote for this. Well, you kind of did. And if you don't think you did, it's because you were willfully ignorant and just believing the obvious lies that Donald Trump was telling you. It's still good for them to figure out that they were lied to. But by, by those who were saying he's not really going to do it, it's still good to figure out that they, they got it wrong. It's still good to figure out that this is bad stuff to be doing, but they played a role in it. At the end of the day, Eric says social democracy is the best system. Most of the Western world has this except us. We have capitalism, which is a rigged system that favors the rich, housing, health care, etc. RMS well, Eric, first we've got to be precise. A social democracy is a form of capitalism. I think that sometimes people get confused between social democracy and democratic socialism. Democratic socialism is a form of socialism. Social democracy is a form of capitalism. You can have. Capitalism is on a spectrum. You can have completely unrestricted libertarian capitalism, which there is no evidence works. You can't find evidence from around the world that it works. And then you can have social democracy, which is a form of capitalism that uses regulation and social safety nets to ensure no one's standard of living falls too far, that education has minimum standards, that health care has minimum standards. Denmark, Sweden, etc. Have implemented that. Sometimes people come to me and they say, sir, we've never seen. No, no, no. Sometimes people come to me and say, why don't you support full blown capitalism? Or they'll say to me, why don't you support socialism? And my answer has been the same for a really long time. I support what I can defend empirically. I am not able to find instances of libertarian, unregulated capitalism that work well at the country level. I am also not able to find instances of socialism that work well at the country level. What the evidence points to as the system with the highest standard of living while maintaining innovation, high levels of self reported happiness and satisfaction. People aren't uninsured, everyone can afford food and education are social democracies. And so until we get evidence of a better system, that is where my orientation is that social democracy is the best system. Now sometimes people will come in and they'll go real socialism has never been tried or real communism has never been tried. Well, there's a couple of options then if you want it tried. One is you impose it via an authoritarian edict from a dictator. I'm against that because I'm not an authoritarian. The other option is you convince enough people that such a system would be great such that they say it's what we want and someone chooses to organize themselves that way. It may be difficult to convince people of it may be difficult to convince people of it Big Racks Russia wrote about my interview with Congressman Jake Auchincloss and says when I hear Congressman Jake speak, it reminds me that it is really not that hard to answer questions in a clear and concise manner with statements that make sense. This tells me when other Democratic or just other politicians dodge a question, it's a conscious choice to give a non answer. I think that this is a very good assessment. When I bring someone on the show and I asked them a question and they answer it in circles, going around and around without, without real substantive answer. And then I say I don't really think I got an answer there. The question was. And I say it again and they don't answer again. It's not that they're unable to answer it, it's that they don't want to. They've calculated that it's either politically disadvantageous to fully answer the question or there's some other reason that they don't want to answer it. And I think we should all remember that they can answer the questions if they want, and if they're not answering the questions, it's not because they can't, it's because they don't want to. Lucas Futurist wrote on Spotify about the Democratic Party Honestly, I'm feeling pretty pessimistic about the Democratic Party apparatus. The core anatomy is rotten due to long term corporate puppeteering. One way I see this getting better at a national level is a mass wave of authentic candidates challenging deadweight Dems and beating them in their own districts. Additionally, Dems need to win way more positions in local and state government, especially election official positions. We need a framework that supplies the talented with hands on support minus the dark money. Well, listen, Lucas, it's, it's not, you know, rainbows and ginger snaps assessment of the Democratic Party apparatus, but I think it's probably an accurate one one and it's both at the national and local level. And I mean, listen, look at all the interviews I've done recently with Democrats. There are Democrats who show up here. It's such a low bar. But there are Democrats who show up here and answer questions. As people pointed out, Jake Akin, Kloss did it. Jimmy Gomez did it. We've Tammy Baldwin did it to a degree. But a lot of the people that, that are coming on, they're not really substantively answering a lot of these questions and it's just part of the problem. So I agree in large part with the diagnosis and what the treatment needs to be can be debated. But at minimum, at minimum, just having candidates who can be themselves and have that be good enough rather than they have to craft a whole Persona that is a bare minimum. Answering questions and speaking substantively and directly to constituents and potential voters, that's a bare minimum. But there needs to be more. Send in your emails info@david pakman.com make sure you're getting my daily newsletter substack.david pakman.com we'll see you on the bonus show.