10/31/25: They think we're stupid as Epstein panic grows, grift falls apart

Summary

The David Pakman Show: “They think we're stupid as Epstein panic grows, grift falls apart”

Date: October 31, 2025
Host: David Pakman
Podcast: The David Pakman Show

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Episode Overview

In this episode, David Pakman delivers a scathing analysis of the latest attempts by the Trump administration and its GOP allies to distract public attention from growing scandals. Pakman outlines the emergence of the manufactured “Operation Arctic Frost” scandal, the intensifying fallout around the unreleased Epstein files, government dysfunction (including food stamp cuts and ongoing shutdown), and the economic despair now confronting traditional Trump-supporting groups such as farmers and small businesses. The episode also tackles rising gerontocracy in American politics and the normalization of xenophobia at the highest levels of government, before exploring cult dynamics underpinning unyielding MAGA loyalty—even as the base suffers directly.

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Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. Operation Arctic Frost & Manufactured Scandals

(00:00–05:50)

• Distraction Tactics: Pakman notes the Trump administration's pattern of launching new, nebulous scandals every time public attention might drift toward real crises (e.g., the Epstein files or economic hardship).
• Operation Arctic Frost: GOP senators spin a new narrative, labeling an FBI investigation into Trump’s post-2020 election actions as “100 times worse than Watergate.”
  • Notable Quote:

  “That's a technical term. A dirtbag — 100 times worse than Watergate.”
  — David Pakman (03:19)

• Gaslighting: Pakman likens this to “Obamagate,” another non-specific, media-consuming distraction from Trump years.
  • Notable Quote:

  “Remember Obamagate? Yeah. I don't either, because we never were told what it was.”
  — David Pakman (03:19)

2. Rewriting History and Gerontocracy in Congress

(05:50–11:58)

• Lindsey Graham’s Revisionism: Graham claims the 2020 election didn’t “bother anybody” until Trump’s 2024 run.
  • Notable Quote:

  “The election that resulted in the January 6th Capitol attack didn't bother anybody?... This is gaslighting on an industrial scale.”
  — David Pakman (06:20)

• Chuck Grassley’s Hearing Struggles: Clips of the 92-year-old senator unable to respond coherently to reporters' questions symbolize a bigger issue:
• Gerontocracy: Pakman argues that the over-representation of elderly politicians, regardless of party, is unhealthy for democracy and functionality.

3. The Normalization of Xenophobia at the Top

(11:59–15:00)

• JD Vance’s Remarks: The Vice President openly states, “It is totally reasonable and acceptable for American citizens to look at their next door neighbors and say, I want to live next to people who I have something in common with. I don't want to live next to four families of strangers.”
  • Notable Quote (JD Vance at 13:25):

  “I want to live next to people who I have something in common with. I don’t want to live next to four families of strangers.”

• Pakman’s Response: He points out the hypocrisy—Vance’s family itself is an immigrant family—and warns this is “the normalization of xenophobia and racism.”
  • Notable Quote:

  “This is just the normalization of xenophobia and racism, allowing people to say, it's OK that I believe this stuff and it's okay to say it too.”
  — David Pakman (13:42)

4. Economic Gaslighting & the Small Business Crisis

(17:44–22:27)

• Kelly Loeffler’s Fantasy Economics: Trump-appointed SBA Administrator claims a “historic comeback,” at odds with small business struggles—tariffs, inflation, and falling confidence.
  • Notable Quote:

  “What universe is she living in? Because it is not this one.”
  — David Pakman (19:42)

• Pakman’s Analysis: This isn’t mere ‘spin’ but outright rejection of reality. He warns that refusing to acknowledge trouble means nothing gets fixed.

5. Farmers & Ranchers Turn Against Trump Over Tariffs

(22:28–26:45)

• Kayla Braglin’s Testimony: Kentucky farmer details how Trump’s tariffs have devastated American agriculture; rising input costs, lost markets, and direct losses ($109 per acre).
  • Notable Quote (Kayla Braglin at 24:20):

  “The loss of our largest export market due to trade retaliation by China has made financial problems even worse... farmers are expected to face a loss of around $109 an acre for this year's crop.”

• Pakman’s Take: Even previous Trump voters among farmers—once the backbone of his base—now admit policy is harming them. He warns this disaffection could have ripple effects far beyond rural America.

6. Tariffs, Economic Pain, and MAGA Disillusionment

(28:42–38:01)

• Tariffs as a Tax on Americans: Pakman demolishes the myth that tariffs punish China—clarifying they function as a domestic tax hike, raising costs for US consumers and businesses without restoring old jobs.
  • Notable Quote:

  “Trump voters supported him because they were mad about inflation under Biden... So they voted for a guy promising to lower prices who immediately implemented the single largest policy designed to raise prices.”
  — David Pakman (31:37)

• Historical Parallels: He recalls the Great Depression’s Smoot-Hawley Tariff as a cautionary tale.
• Farm Bailouts—a Paradox: Trump’s solution: hurt farmers with tariffs, then offer taxpayer-funded bailouts.
• MAGA Loyalty Despite Harm: Younger voters’ support erodes, but many double down, choosing identity and belief over lived experience.

7. The Cult Psychology Behind MAGA Loyalty

(38:02–43:41)

• Why Loyalty Persists: Pakman draws parallels with cult behavior—when devotion to a leader is so complete, personal suffering is rationalized as a noble sacrifice.
• Identity Over Facts: For many, Trumpism is intertwined with personal and social identity, making reversal (and admission of error) psychologically unbearable.
  • Notable Quote:

  “Once you believe that, there are no facts I can give you. Personal suffering doesn't matter. Only loyalty matters.”
  — David Pakman (41:56)

• Empathy Over Gloating: Pakman urges progressives to welcome those MAGA voters who do change their minds—without “we told you so” mockery.

8. Community Feedback & Closing Topics

(43:42–59:40)

• Technical Issues & Listener Worries: Pakman responds to questions about podcast episode availability and the concern foreign listeners have for American democracy.
• General Strikes: He addresses how retirees can participate in general strikes and broader activism.
• Food Stamps & Social Stability: Commenters highlight looming dangers if SNAP benefits are cut, linking deprivation to potential spikes in crime and economic malaise.
  • Notable Quote (Reddit user, relayed by Pakman):

  “A person with a hungry family can go from being rational and law-abiding to doing whatever it takes to survive.”

• 2028 Election Speculation: Listeners predict possible candidates; Pakman weighs in on upcoming Democratic and Republican field plausibility.
• Grassroots Protest Updates: Anecdotes about the diversity of protestors in rural MAGA territory spark optimism.
• Critique of Government Dysfunction: The episode closes with sharp listener commentary on incoherence, authoritarian drift, and government shutdowns—Pakman agrees, noting international observers’ concern.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote/Highlight | |-----------|------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:19 | David Pakman | “That's a technical term. A dirtbag — 100 times worse than Watergate.” | | 06:20 | David Pakman | “Gaslighting on an industrial scale.” | | 13:25 | VP JD Vance | “I want to live next to people who I have something in common with. I don’t want to live next to four families of strangers.” | | 13:42 | David Pakman | “This is just the normalization of xenophobia and racism...” | | 19:42 | David Pakman | “What universe is she living in? Because it is not this one.” | | 24:20 | Kayla Braglin | “Tariffs have raised input expenses from 1% to over 12% this year... farmers are expected to face a loss of around $109 an acre for this year’s crop.” | | 31:37 | David Pakman | “They voted for a guy promising to lower prices who immediately implemented the single largest policy designed to raise prices.” | | 41:56 | David Pakman | “Once you believe that, there are no facts I can give you. Personal suffering doesn't matter. Only loyalty matters.” | | ~47:10 | Reddit listener | “A person with a hungry family can go from being rational and law-abiding to doing whatever it takes to survive.” |

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Segment Timestamps

• 00:00–05:50 — Setting the scene: distractions, Arctic Frost, Epstein panic
• 05:50–11:58 — Republican gaslighting, Grassley and gerontocracy
• 11:59–15:00 — JD Vance, xenophobia normalized
• 17:44–22:27 — Economic gaslighting, Loeffler’s claims, real state of small business
• 22:28–26:45 — Farmers, tariffs, Kayla Braglin’s testimony
• 28:42–38:01 — Tariffs as a tax, loss of support (and self-interest) among MAGA voters
• 38:02–43:41 — MAGA cult psychology, why the base doesn't abandon Trump
• 43:42–59:40 — Feedback: strike participation, SNAP, 2028 election, grassroots, global perception

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Tone and Style

David Pakman delivers the episode with his signature incisiveness, wit, and mild exasperation. He’s fact-based but laces his commentary with memorable zingers and sharp analogies—often underscoring the surreal nature of current US political discourse. He takes care to approach sensitive topics like age and cult dynamics with sensitivity, but is unabashed in calling out hypocrisy, gaslighting, and normalized bigotry.

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Summary

This episode provides a vivid snapshot of a political moment dominated by engineered distractions, economic distress, and normalization of previously fringe ideologies. Pakman’s sharp analysis exposes the mechanisms by which Trump-aligned Republicans seek to mislead the public, the painful real-world fallout for traditional constituencies (like farmers), and the psychological traps that keep MAGA loyalists in line—even as their own lives deteriorate. Through listener feedback and diverse commentary, Pakman broadens the conversation, tying individual stories to a wider national—and even global—sense of alarm.

For listeners seeking to understand not just what is happening, but how and why, this episode offers both granular detail and critical context.

Transcript

[David Pakman]

Trump's administration is in full blown distraction mode. They are rolling out a new scandal over something called Arctic Frost and they are saying it is 100 times worse than Watergate, which is what you say when you are terrified people might start asking real questions about the Epstein files. We've got Senator Eric Schmidt melting down Lindsey Graham rewriting history, and a 92 year old senator who cannot hear reporters standing a few feet in front of him. Or while everybody on the Republican side pretends this is completely normal. We then have JD Vance, the Vice President, going out and saying it's completely reasonable not to want neighbors who speak a language other than English. It is open naked xenophobia. And he says it with a straight face as if this is totally normal. We're also talking about the farmers turning on Donald Trump because the tariffs are destroying them. And we will discuss why the hardcore MAGA cult cannot walk away even when they are getting obliterated. What is it that happens inside of cults that is such a strong draw? Plus your feedback from the email, Facebook, Spotify, smoke signals and telegrams, all of it on today's show. Remember to rate the podcast five stars on Spotify and Apple podcasts and it costs nothing and it really helps us. Let's record today's show. I think it'll be a good one. There is a building master class in distraction being carried out by the Trump administration and by the Republican Party. They believe that you're too dumb to notice. His loyal soldiers have their marching orders and the marching orders are make something, anything you can find. Make something else. A scandal to put less attention on. Take your pick, because there's five or six different things going on, all of which are bad for the administration. The thing now is Operation Arctic Frost. Senator Eric Schmidt spoke about it. He says this is a bigger scandal than anything in 100 years in the United States. Worse than Watergate, worse than everything. Here's what he had to say.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

What happens sometimes in this town is that we have multiple news cycles in one day and big events can sort of get lost in all the things that are happening in the news of the day. But I think that in this instance, I can't think of a bigger political scandal in the last hundred years. So if you want to compare it to Watergate, this is 100 times worse than Watergate. And here's why. To sort of amplify the point that some Senator Graham was making. Three days after President Trump announced he was running for president, this system was weaponized against him. Jack Smith, who is notorious in prosecutor world as being a Stalin, like, show me the man, I'll show you the crime. Prosecutor. That's the guy you appoint when you want to get your political opponent. He's a dirtbag. A dirtbag.

[David Pakman]

That's a technical term. A dirtbag 100 times worse than Watergate. You know what this reminds me of? Remember Obamagate? Yeah. I don't either, because we never were told what it was. Trump called it the worst political crime of the century during his first term. And when a reporter. It might have been Jonathan Karl. Or no, it was someone from the Washington Post. When someone asked, what is Obama Gate? Trump said, you know what it is. Don't ask me questions like that. So let me tell you what Arctic Frost actually was. This is their new scandal. The FBI opened a criminal investigation into Trump and other Republicans based on their efforts to overturn the 2020 election. That was. But remember the whole thing where they were going to have fake slates of electors in seven different states. They investigated the attempt to overturn the election. The thing we all watched happen. We had these riots on January, 6, 2021. But where it gets fascinating is that Republicans are now claiming that the investigation is the scandal. They're saying we should be outraged that the investigation took place, not that Trump tried to overturn the election, not that he incited a riot, not that they had fake slates of electors, plan to go and say, even though Biden won the state by popular vote, we are going to put our electoral votes towards Trump. No, the scandal is that an investigation was opened. Think about the psychological warfare that is happening here. Trump and his allies try to overturn an election, they get investigated for it, and now they are the victims because they were investigated. Now they want to point out that the timing is suspect or whatever else you can make the case. But the idea that no one cared about what happened in 2020 until Trump announced his reelection run in is nuts. Trump needs you focused on anything other than what's in the Epstein files. 42 million people not getting food stamps. The government is still closed. Ranchers and farmers are getting crushed. Trump went to Asia and got humiliated by Chinese President Xi, and he doesn't want you thinking about that stuff. And so instead, they are crafting this narrative of FBI overreach and weaponized investigations. And. And Schmidt now is saying he wants hearings on this. They are all working together to lie to you. Here's Senator Lindsey Graham saying no one was worried about what happened in the 2020 election until Trump said, I'm running again.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

I Don't know about you, but I'm offended that somebody in 2023 would, would subpoena my phone records to find out where I was at when I called somebody and who I called and where they were at. It's not their damn business. I have a constitutional duty like the rest of us here as chairman of the committee regarding the 2020 election. I don't think the 2020 election bothered anybody until Trump decided to run in 2024.

[David Pakman]

What? What? The election that resulted in the January 6th Capitol attack didn't bother anybody. Nobody thought that there was anything to look into there. Trump calling it stolen every day for years. It was all just hunky dory until Trump said, I'm running again in 2024. You know, I would remind Lindsey Graham, we have Google. We can pull up his own quotes where he was all over the media talking about election fraud and then talking about Trump's behavior. And this is gaslighting on an industrial scale. But the goal is, is to get you to think about anything other than the disasters that are taking place right now and the fact that as of this recording, the government is still closed, they still haven't sworn in at Alita Grijalva, that Trump is still not able to fix the problem he created with the tariffs and that we don't know what's in those damn Epstein files. Gaslighting at an industrial scale. All right. Republicans were visibly uncomfortable as 92 year old Senator Chuck Grassley couldn't hear a thing. We know that it would be a nice thing to have some younger people in power. And I want to do this carefully and I want to do this with tact and humility and sensitivity. There is video of Senator Chuck Grassley. It's rough. Reporters are asking him a question and he just, he just can't hear what's going on. And ultimately, white flags and answers a question that wasn't even asked your colleagues that Judge Rosebud should be impeached.

[Reporter]

And if so, what do you think?

[Senator Chuck Grassley]

I'm sorry, I've got hearing problems, so speak louder.

[David Pakman]

Do you agree with your colleagues that Judge Roseberg should be impeached, as they just mentioned? And if so, how would that process.

[Senator Chuck Grassley]

Play out with the hearings, you mean? Well, first of all, we, we want to make sure that we have all the documents, all the information that we can, can possibly get so we know when these people that come before us.

[David Pakman]

The Republicans standing around realize he's not answering the question that was asked, they.

[Senator Chuck Grassley]

Know what to say or not to say. And we Got to make sure that we got the documents so when they lie to us, we can challenge them.

[David Pakman]

Can I say, you can see in their faces the shifting, the Republicans around him, staring at the ground. No, this is not good. This is not only about Chuck Grassley. Happens all the time to Trump. Go ahead.

[Reporter]

Yesterday there was a vote at the Gnisset on annexing the West Bank. Do you see it as a challenge to your peace efforts?

[Senator Chuck Grassley]

Could you say that louder, please?

[Reporter]

Yes. Yesterday there was a vote at the Gnisset in Israel on annexing the West Bank. Do you see it as a challenge to your peace force?

[Senator Chuck Grassley]

Will you answer that place? Because I cannot understand the words you say.

[David Pakman]

And then, of course, there was the time that Melania had to explain the question to trump.

[Reporter]

Thank you, Mr. President. I have two questions for you. First, after your phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky today, do you plan to speak with Russia's President Putin in the near future?

[Senator Chuck Grassley]

What.

[Reporter]

What if he was President Putin?

[Senator Chuck Grassley]

I will be.

[David Pakman]

Yeah.

[Senator Chuck Grassley]

I will be. We're having a very good dialogue.

[David Pakman]

All right? So you get the picture, okay? This is not about dunking on people for having hearing loss, okay? Hearing loss happens. You can get hearing aids. You can manage it. This is not about that. This is about a bigger issue. America is run by a gerontocracy, okay? People, many of whom are just too old to do the job, but are staying in power anyway, and a lot of people are pretending that this is fine. Now, I would apply this standard to any profession. You've got a pilot, a surgeon, a bus driver, a teacher. It doesn't matter. Different professions require different physical and cognitive skills. And we would apply the requirements of any job to the ability of the person to do it. But politics, in some way seems to be exempted. We're clinging to power is treated as normal, and sometimes it's even considered heroic. And the country ends up run by people who should be enjoying retirement. It's a great thing. They shouldn't be negotiating with China. And we've had a number of electeds in cognitive decline stay in office. We know about Reagan, obviously. Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein more recently. It's a long list. There's even. I forget. I don't even know. I don't even care if it's a Democrat or a Republican. But there's, like, some member of the House who, I guess was discovered to be in. In a memory unit for. For Alzheimer's treatment and just wasn't showing up to. To. To. To work. We need an age in elected officials that is on average, a little closer to the average age of adults. Now, I want to say one other thing. I don't know. Let me see if I can find average median adult age in the U.S. the median adult age in the U.S. is 39. Okay, so, so that what that means is that half the population is younger than 39. Half the population is older than 39. I'm not arguing that elected officials need to be exactly matched to the median age. Why not? There is something to be said for experience. And so if we want a perfect distribution, we probably would be forcing in too many people who, who are too young and have no experience whatsoever. So I have no issue with the median or even mean age of our representatives skewing older than the population more broadly because experience does matter. And on average, slightly older people are going to have more experience. But the degree to which this has become a gerontocracy I think is a major problem. It's also a major problem for the Democratic Party. And this is where a lot of the talk about generational change has been coming from. Let me know what you think. Am I completely off base here? Vice President J.D. vance now says xenophobia is totally cool. He's kind of saying the quiet part out loud. He talks about what's wrong with not wanting neighbors that speak a different language. I want to talk about the substance of what he says here.

[Vice President J.D. Vance]

Who's out of the house is actually evicted from the house because there are people who are going to pay more for rent. And then what happens is 20 people move into a three bedroom house. 20 people from a totally different culture, totally different ways of interacting. Again, we can respect their dignity while also being angry at the Biden administration for letting that situation happening and recognizing that their next door neighbors are going to say, well, wait a second, what is going on here? I don't know these people, they don't speak the same language that I do. And because there are 20 in the house next door, it's a little bit rowdier than it was when there was just a family of four.

[David Pakman]

Family, these loud neighbors speaking a different language of five.

[Vice President J.D. Vance]

It is totally reasonable and acceptable for American citizens to look at their next door neighbors and say, I want to live next to people who I have something in common with. I don't want to live next to four families of strangers.

[David Pakman]

Do you all remember that JD Vance's wife, Usha Vance, was born to an immigrant family who presumably at some points spoke a different language at home? Her parents were some of the people speaking another language next door. My family was a family speaking a different language next door. This is just the normalization of xenophobia and racism, allowing people to say, it's OK that I believe this stuff and it's okay to say it too. And he does it with this sort of like, I'm just asking questions kind of approach that Republicans use when they know they're probably going too far, but they can't really help themselves. And he has spent months now trying to build this weird kind of nationalist identity politics about the big moral crisis of America being, do your neighbors speak Spanish or Mandarin or anything that's not English? And this is where the Republican Party is right now. And they're not bothering with the coded language anymore. They don't feel like they need to. They're fine at this point, kind of just saying it. It's not cultural cohesion. It's not community values. You know, the squishy terms they often use to imply the things they want to say. They are now just fine saying, it's totally normal and respectable not to want neighbors who speak a different language. Direct quote from the Vice President of the United States. You know, when we go back to the start of MAGA and Trumpism, I have long believed, and I think that this still holds true, that Trump didn't create new racists or xenophobes or homophobes, to a degree, even. Even from people, LGBT people who know Trump, they go, I don't think the guy is personally homophobic. He's using all of this different stuff to try to get ahead politically. Doesn't make it any better. But the point is, I believe what Trump really achieved is disinhibiting people. And JD Vance is one of those people who is now willing to just straight up say, totally normal thing, not to want foreigners speaking a different language living next to you. Normal, good, healthy thing. And the defense has become much more pointed because they've calculated, probably correctly, that there's no downside to saying this stuff. And I don't think there really has been a downside for them. Let me know what you think. Leave me a comment. Make sure to share this video and hit that subscribe button. Help us get to those 4 million. Can you believe that? 4 million YouTube subscribers. I've been using Graza olive oil for years, and I am super excited that Graza is now a sponsor of the show. Graza olive oil is always fresh. It's never blended. They use one olive from one region in Spain. No mysterious blends. It's a traceable and fresher product and the packaging is super practical. None of these messy drippy spouts. Graza oils come in easy to use squeeze and spray bottles. They've got three types, super simple Frizzle for high smoke point, cooking, Sizzle for everyday cooking and Drizzle, which is more for garnishes and dressings. I've been using Graza Oil in my house for years. I love everything about it. Supercharge your food with Graza Olive oil. Visit Graza Co Slash David P and promo code David p today for 10% off your first order. The link is in the Description this program continues to be primarily funded by our audience through the membership program and through Substack Premium subscriptions. You can read about membership@join pacman.com we do an extra bonus show every day for our members.

[Senator Eric Schmidt]

Oh, the bonus show where you want to make money.

[Kayla Braglin]

Everybody else that makes money to fund themselves is bad.

[David Pakman]

That's really Alex Jones. Really talking about our bonus show.

[Kayla Braglin]

Thank your lucky stars every day you're not Dave Pakman.

[David Pakman]

Thank your lucky stars every day you're not Dave Pakman. Anyway, Alex sheds a tear every time someone signs up for membership. And our newest members today, Robert Tiger and Brad Bronstein, thank you to both of you. You can read all about it and sign up@join pacman.com Black is white, down is up. Cold is hot. They clearly think that their voters are stupid and I wonder if they're right. This is what sucking up to Trump with no regard for debasing yourself looks like. This is what it looks like in 2025, and it is not pretty. It's actually pretty pathetic. This is Kelly Lefler, the current United States Administrator of the Small Business Administration. You might remember her from her prior national humiliation as a brief senator representing Georgia. Briefly as a senator representing Georgia. She's back and she has something remarkable to tell us about the American economy. You might be wondering, where did she get the information that she presents in this statement? And we're going to get to that in a moment, but here's what she had to say.

[Reporter]

Now, that tax cut is a big reason why we've seen a historic comeback for our nation's economy under the leadership of President Trump and congressional Republicans. Prior to the Democrat shutdown, the data was very clear. Small business optimism was at 7 year highs. Wage growth was outpacing inflation for the first time in four years. GDP growth was 3.8%. Deregulation, energy dominance and fair trade were finally back. Now that tax Cut is a.

[David Pakman]

What universe is she living in? Because it is not this one. Now, I want to tell you what's actually happening in the real world where facts still matter. The Trump administration has unleashed this chaotic raft of tariffs that have markets very unstable. And one of the groups that is most sort of troubled and affected by it is small businesses. Small businesses that are less able to just eat the cost of higher input costs. Small businesses that are less able to float large expenses, whether they be payroll or advancing inventories so that they can stock up before prices go up. She is there, at least theoretically, to help small business. And small businesses are getting crushed by supply chain disruptions, by increased costs. Consumer confidence is shaky at best. But Kelly Lefler says Trump has led a historic comeback. Now, some of the people getting crushed the most are the small businesses under her purview. So it's government scale gaslighting, not spin. Spin is when you put a slightly positive spin on a difficult truth. This is the opposite of reality. Now, Kelly Lefler, her job description is support, support and protect small businesses. She's not supporting, she's not protecting, she's not advocating for them. She is simply saying, the guy who hired me is doing everything perfectly and everything's great. And the tragedy of it is that it's kind of the ultimate sad spectacle of the political moment. You've got former senators, cabinet officials, anyone who wants to stay in Donald Trump's orbit. They have to pretend that reality is what Trump says it is. It could be absurd. It could be a Sharpie drawn on a hurricane map. And you say that's the right path. Trump knows, and this is a classic trait of authoritarianism, because when the people in charge of economic policy refuse to acknowledge the problems of the economy, you don't fix the problems. They just don't get, don't get fixed. And so when the administrator of the Small Business Administration organization won't admit that small businesses are struggling, there is zero chance that anything is done to help those small business. Do you think anybody who denies reality is going to fix the real problems? And it reveals this fundamental contempt for the American people. These folks, Trump, Leffler, whoever, they think we're not going to notice or we won't remember they that were too distracted, too tired, or too uninformed to call out the obvious lies. So we go back to the opening question. Do they think their voters are stupid? The short answer seems to be yes, they are banking on people not paying attention or counting on partizan loyalty to override objective reality. So that if things aren't good for small businesses, they'll just find a Democrat to blame. Maybe it's Joe Biden, maybe it's Barack Obama, who knows? And they're hoping that if they say something confidently enough, with enough air of authority, that people are just going to believe it. Things are not going well for small businesses. And small businesses are one of the most important drivers of a healthy economy. This could point in a very bad direction. Let's talk about the farmers. Trump is in major trouble all of a sudden. Every single day this week, we are building up a picture of the degree to which farmers and ranchers are furious with Trump. They don't seem to like him anymore. They're turning on Trump and it is a disaster. Now, it's not just this specific guy. We're going to hear from Caleb Ragland here, who is a farmer and also a spokesperson for farmers. He explains in really clear, clear terms during congressional testimony exactly what's going wrong and exactly where the policy is hurting them.

[Kayla Braglin]

My name is Kayla Braglin. I'm a 9th generation farmer from Kentucky. I also serve as president of ASA. U.S. agriculture is facing significant challenges which are illustrated by rapidly plunging margins for farmers. Commodity prices are down nearly 50% from highs experienced just three years ago. And farm production cost continue to skyrocket for land, seeds, fertilizer, pesticides.

[David Pakman]

So input costs going up. Got it.

[Kayla Braglin]

And farm machinery. While high interest rates create additional pressure for soybean farmers, the loss of our largest export market due to trade retaliation by China has made financial problems even worse. We are hopeful that this market will be restored following the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi. Still, high production cost and market losses mean soybean farmers are expected to face a loss of around $109 an acre for this year's crop.

[David Pakman]

Did you hear that? $109 an acre of loss for the crop. When you look at soybeans, it's really the prototypical example of unintended consequences, or maybe intended consequences if you are Trump. But China's fine. China's found other sources of soybean. They've got Brazil, they've got Argentina. They have a lot of options. Our soybean farmers have nothing. They are simply sitting on soybeans, losing $109 for each acre of this year's crop. Kayla Bragland went on in more detail. I think this very interesting to hear from him exactly how this is all going down.

[Kayla Braglin]

Other factors are contributing to higher input cost. The US imports $33 billion in inputs annually. For high cost products like fertilizer and pesticides, tariffs create a heavy financial burden. IPA tariffs have raised tariff related input expenses for farmers from 1% to over 12% this year. Inputs also depend on the global market. Many fertilizers and half of the active ingredients for pesticides are imported. Global dynamics like demand shifts and geopolitical issues also impact prices. The high cost of farm production has eroded the financial safety net of soybean farmers and has made it harder to weather trade related market losses this year.

[David Pakman]

Other facts all right, now you get the point. Now, the reason I said at the beginning of this segment farmers, but not necessarily this specific farmer, is that Caleb Ragland has previously reportedly voted for Trump three times. And I think that to the extent that he is now acknowledging, hey, the tariffs from Trump are a problem, great, I welcome that realization. But this is a guy who was highly partizan in the past in favor of Trump and against Joe Biden, but that doesn't really matter. The problems they're facing are the problems they're facing. And he showed up there. And when he says, hey, here, here's the tariffs, we know who put those tariffs in place. How powerful, or let me put it a different way, how significant could it be for Donald Trump and for Republicans if farmers and ranchers turn on him and Republicans, it could be very significant. They aren't in and of themselves the biggest constituency in the world, but we all depend on our food sources. And so there is a trickle. You know, the trickle down that the Republicans tell us about is completely fabricated. Cut taxes on the rich and everybody benefits. That's made up. That doesn't happen. The trickle down that is real is that if Americans, all of whom need food, start to realize food is costing more rather than less, and Trump is screwing farmers and cattle ranchers, what are the farmers and ranchers saying? Oh, they're pissed about the tariffs too. Well, then so am I. This is a critical group, not for its sheer size, but because it relates to something every single person in the country depends on which is food. So this is not a group. If I were a Republican, I would be trying to cross. Some Republicans get it, but they can't seem to get through to Donald Trump. Every time you Google your name, you will probably find dozens of sites that expose your personal information. This can include phone number, home address, family details. 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The link is in the description MAGA voters are about to get crushed by Donald Trump. They have no idea Trump tricked them and now they're going to pay the consequences. Let me explain. You know how Trump voters think tariffs will bring back manufacturing jobs? I have some really bad news for them. If you look at MAGA social media right now, you'll see celebration. Trump's finally standing up to China. He's going to bring back American manufacturing just like he said. And the pitch kind of sounds good like, oh, you put tariffs on foreign goods and it'll make American products more competitive. And all of a sudden you'll look at Ohio and Pennsylvania and other states and jobs in manufacturing are going to be flooding back now. It's a beautiful story. The only problem is that it's completely backwards. It makes no sense. Now here's what is actually happening. Donald Trump's tariffs are functioning as a tax hike of $200 to $300 per year on American households. The full impact after trickle down price increases will be about thirteen hundred dollars more that households will. Households will spend this year for the same stuff that last year they purchased for their home. Now you might say, I thought China paid the tariffs. Of course my audience recognizes that's not the case. When Trump puts a 25% tariff on Chinese goods, the company in the US importing stuff from China pays the tariff. Then they go, okay, we paid 25% more. We're going to charge more to the consumer. So you pay the tariff, I pay the tariff. Here's what's absolutely wild. Trump voters supported him because they were mad about inflation under Biden. They were mad about high prices under Joe Biden. The economy was their number one issue. So they voted for a guy promising to lower prices who immediately implemented the single largest policy designed to raise prices. The data shows Americans get this. If you poll Americans, 58% believe tariffs are bad for the economy. 60% think Trump's policies spike inflation. Trump voters are slowly figuring it out. One Trump voting manufacturer in Pennsylvania said, my generation, it's not going to positive, positively impact. It's going to hurt us. So it's like a Brexit all over again. Now let me explain why tariffs cannot bring back manufacturing. First of all, building a factory takes years and millions, if not hundreds of millions, if not potentially billions of dollars. Companies won't invest when Trump might reverse the tariffs any time or the next president definitely will, number one. Number two, we don't have the raw materials or the supply chains or the skilled workforce anymore. We gutted it over 40 years. And third, even if manufacturing came back, it would be heavily automated, not 1950s factory jobs with middle class wages. It'd be a handful of jobs operating a bunch of robots. And by the way, we have many open manufacturing jobs right now that aren't being filled because a lot of Americans don't want them. So what actually happens? American consumers pay more. That's what's happening. They, the factories aren't coming back. None of it's happening. Just we are paying more. Businesses that depend on imported components get crushed. Farmers lose export markets when countries like China say we'll go to Brazil and Argentina for soybeans instead of the United States. And who gets hit the hardest in the U.S. it's the working class people. The Smoot Hawley Tariff act of 1930 raised tariffs on over 20,000 goods to protect American jobs during the Depression. And what happened is countries retaliated, American exports declined and the depression got even worse. Unemployment went up and economists said this was a bad idea. We have 95 years of evidence that this doesn't work. Now we don't have to go back to the 1930s. We can just go back to Trump's first term. China stopped buying American soybeans. Farmers got destroyed, some went bankrupt, and some tragically took their own lives. Trump solution, take tariff money and give it to the farmers that you hurt. Bail out the farmers that you just hurt. It's like punching you in the face and then using your wallet to go and buy you an ice pack out of your own money. And Trump's doing it again. China stopped buying soybeans. Farmers are getting crushed. And Trump's like, oh, that's concerning. We're going to have to do something. We might have to do some kind of bailout. So I don't say any of this to dump on Trump voters. There is something tragic about watching people vote for someone because they're struggling economically, and then watching that guy come in and go, I'm going to put in new policies so that you struggle economically even more. And then watching some of them defended, well, someday it's going to be good. Now, many Trump buyers are experiencing voters. Trump buyers, they kind of are buyers. Trump voters are experiencing buyer's remorse. And interestingly, the youngest voters, 18 to 29, have seen their approval of Trump go down 27%. That's the most of any age group so far. But there are others that are doubling down and they've convinced themselves Trump's right. This is temporary pain. It's going to be good. It's all going to be good in the end. Once something becomes core to your identity, I am a Trump supporter. Admitting you're wrong feels like a personal failure. And so what I want to reframe this as is, I hope that there are Trump supporters out there willing to have the maturity and wherewithal to say, I was wrong. And then we have to have the maturity to say, it's awesome that you're acknowledging that you're welcome here any time, rather than, we told you so, you're so stupid, etc. Trump's strength has always been convincing his voters that when they're getting hurt, it's actually good for them somehow. And then when prices go up, it's OK because we're standing up to China. At a certain point, you got to look at the data, look at your bank account, look at what's happening and say, he lied to me. This just, this doesn't make any sense. MAGA voters are about to get obliterated by Trump's tariffs. The economic consensus is clear. The only question is, are they going to figure it out before it's too late? Are we going to take the House of Representatives away from Republicans in the next election, or are they going to believe that getting poorer is making America great again? I happen to think that that is not the case. All right, let's now talk about the ugly reality. There are many MAGAs who will never abandon Donald Trump, even when he crushes them. We just talked in the last segment about MAGA voters losing their jobs, paying more for everything, watching the economy tank. I said, and I always say, you are welcome here. Revise your beliefs, say, the information has changed. I was wrong to support Trump, or I might have been right at the time, but he did Something that I didn't expect. Whatever, right, as wrong as that might be, you're welcome here. Reviewing and revising your opinions is a great thing, but there are a lot of people who will never, ever, ever abandon Trump. Why? The psychology of it is really interesting. Now, here's the big picture. There's a woman who Voted for Trump three times. 2016, 2020, 2024. Worked at the VA for decades. Two days after her inauguration, Trump cut her position. And her response was, trump's been persecuted for us. He's now doing the right thing. What? Another Trump voter was fired after Trump's tariffs were so bad for her employer that her employer had to lay people off. She said, well, I'm sucking it up for the greater good. Trump voters getting directly harmed and doubling down. This is way bigger than politics. We've got to talk about cults. When a cult leader's claims are disproven, members often stay. They deny the evidence, they recruit new followers. Now, you might say, well, our MAGA followers. A cult? Not exactly, but there are a lot of similar mechanisms. You've invested everything in Trump. Your identity is tied up in Trump. Your relationships, your reputation, it's all wrapped in maga. You've defended him for years, You've potentially even alienated family. And now all of a sudden you go, damn, all the stuff I've given up. His policies are hurting me directly. So you've got two choices. You can say I was wrong, or you explain why this is actually good, why the destruction is good. Admitting wrongness to some cult members is completely unbearable. So people choose option number two. And one of the reasons that cults perpetuate membership is because people become more devoted in order to reduce the cognitive dissonance. I'm sort of into this leader. He told me he's going to do a bunch of stuff. He didn't do it. He actually hurt me. That's too hurtful to me to acknowledge. So I will double down by renewing my commitment to the cult leader. You reframe it. You, you're a patriot, you're noble, and for a lot of people, Trump is a savior. He's not just the president. There are cult followers of Trump who say he was saved by God from the bullet to make America great again. That is really powerful. Tariffs are not going to change your mind about that. So cults love to use isolation, repetitive ideology, cognitive restructuring, all the sort of stuff that happens at MAGA rallies on truth, social echo chambers in right wing media. Trump's followers view suffering as an Acceptable sacrifice. And patriots are in an existential battle between good and evil. And Trump's on the right side. Once you believe that, there are no facts, I can give you personal suffering. Doesn't matter. Only loyalty matters. Now, some are reconsidering. And this is the good news. 14% of Trump voters would vote differently if they could redo 2024. That would have caused Trump to lose. That alone would have changed the election results. That is a trickle. It's not an exodus, but it's a trickle. Now, what Trump claims to often offer is certainty. In uncertain times, if prices are up, that's uncertain. Can I afford stuff next month? I don't know. Trump gives you certainty. We're standing up to China. It's not true, but he provides certainty. You lost your job. That's an uncertain situation. Can I find a new one? Did this make sense? Trump gives you the certainty of he is draining the swamp. Does the economy appear to be showing cracks in the labor market? Well, we are fighting back against the deep state. And so the failures become protective of Trump. And when people connect to the leader, they let that connection do their thinking. I also think it's important to mention this is not about intelligence. A lot of objectively smart people are in the cult. It's more about identity. It's more about psychology. It's more about your personal life situation when you get pulled into it. The Heaven's Gate members bought a telescope to see a spaceship following the Hale Bopp Comet. When it didn't appear, they said, oh, it must have been a defective telescope. Then many of them took their own lives. And it's an example of how when reality contradicts your beliefs, people start questioning reality rather than questioning their beliefs. And there's been a lot of this. I was just talking to a friend over the weekend. I believe this was in 2012. Let me look this up. Harold Camping cult. Harold Camping was a cult leader, small cult, who believed. I'm having trouble finding the date, but I believe it was that there was going to be a rapture in 2012. And we interviewed one of his followers, and of course, she sounded very delusional. And I said to her, if you're still here after the date, can you come back on and talk to us? And she said, no, you know, I think I'm going to have more problems because if I'm still here after the Rapture Day, it means I wasn't one of the chosen ones. I was left behind. And that is a great example of how if the prediction doesn't come true. They don't go the prediction was wrong. They go to I must not have been chosen or it happened, but in a way that wasn't visible or whatever. And that goes to why a lot of MAGA people are never going to abandon Donald Trump. It's your identity. You've burned bridges, you've defended the scandals. You, you can't walk away because it would be humiliating to you. So given that a lot of the facts don't matter, it's not really stupidity, it's human psychology. What do we do? You can't fact check faith. We do what we can. Which is for those who do start questioning, and it won't be all of them, but it'll be some of them. For those who do start questioning, we give them space to do that and we're empathetic and we say, you're always welcome to change your mind and come join us. It's the best idea I can think of. Let me know if you have a better one. Our sponsor, Magic Spoon has been with us a long time. They do the high protein, zero sugar cereals and treats nostalgically reinventing some of my favorite childhood snacks. Many of you know for me cereal was not breakfast, it was a snack. And that is still the case. And what Magic Spoon has done is taken your favorite sugary cereals from when you were a kid and turned them into something you can feel good about. Magic Spoon is also launching a brand new high protein granola, true to the Magic Spoon promise, packed with protein, crunchy 13 grams of protein, zero added sugars and in delicious flavors like dark chocolate, almond, honey almond and peanut butter. They've got their high protein treats as well. Crispy, crunchy, airy, with 12 grams of protein in many flavors. And of course, if you don't love Magic Spoon as much as I do, and our team does, Magic Spoon will refund all of your money, no questions asked. Get $5 off your next order at magic spoon.com/pacman or look for Magic Spoon on Amazon or in your nearest grocery store. The link is in the description. All right, let's get to this week's Friday Feedback. See what is on your minds. You can always email me info@David Pakman. We will feature comments replies from many platforms, Spotify, YouTube, Substack and others. But you can always email info@david pakman.com we start today with a question from Jeff Gates. Many of you asked this question from Spotify. What happened to yesterday's show? I went back to finish listening to it, and it's not on Spotify anymore. We had a really frustrating issue on Spotify specifically. This only applies to Spotify, where, due to some kind of new system for how Spotify identifies music from other people, a bunch of our episodes, either because of our intro music or in one case because of the music that was part of a Trump Truth social video, Spotify algorithmically flagged episodes and said, you don't have the rights for these audio tracks. We are removing your episodes, which obviously is terrible and it's just like crushed the ability of people in our audience to just listen to the show. But it appears to have been fixed. Spotify has put a fix in place. We've provided licenses or other justifications for the audio tracks that we use on the show, including the intro music. And I believe, I believe that all is copacetic now, but if it happens again, we are not going in and, you know, deleting episodes after publishing them or anything like that. It would be a technical explanation. Dr. Kanye Stark wrote on Substack. Thank you for this summary, David. Depressingly disgusting, though most of the information is. I hope that I live to see the day when democracy is restored in your country. Love from Canada. You know, it's really, it's, it's sad, but it's also heartwarming the degree to which my foreign listeners are worried about us here in the United States and have been writing to me about, we're worried about you. I hope that things get better. And I have heard over the last week from viewers in that I know about. You know, we get 5,000 comments a day across all platforms, but that I know about many from Canada, from Mexico, the uk, Argentina, Germany, Sweden, Spain. The people in Spain who just talk about how great quality of life is, their love to write in and go, we've got it pretty good here, even if on paper, you know, salaries are much lower. We live a good life in Spain and we feel bad for what's going on in the United States. It is heartwarming to see the concern and also depressing that so many people are looking around and going, man, what the hell is going on there in the United States? Robert Goldman says Trump Derangement Syndrome much. It's like you'd have no show if you had anything else to talk about. I sure hope it's stage four Trump Derangement Syndrome. Yeah, you know, one of the things that is as old as this show is that since the beginning, I would hear from people who don't like the show if X goes away, you'll have no more show. For a while it was, if George W. Bush goes away, you'll have nothing left to talk about. And next thing I knew, Barack Obama was president. It triggered insane racism and xenophobia from Republicans desperate to contradict Obama at every step. Obamacare passed, and now Republicans were determined to get rid of it. The Tea Party surged. Then it was Obama's reelection. Are they going to take the presidency away from Obama? And then they didn't. And then the second term of Obama shifted into what is next for the Republican Party. Then came Trump, and then it was like, oh, my God, if when Obama's gone, Republicans are going to be much more normal. You won't have anything to talk about. And in came Trump. And then it was, wow, now it's Trump. If Trump loses to Biden, you'll have nothing to talk about. And then Biden won. And then it was, oh, Trump really won the election and Trump's getting charged. It's always been the case that there are 15, 20 people a month that write in and they go, if this one thing changes, if this one person loses or wins or whatever, the show will be over because you'll have nothing to talk about. And yet the show is bigger today than it ever has been. 7 million followers, 150 million views per month. And so if I've learned anything from doing this, and actually I'm starting to sort of explore how to write about this, the ubiquity of news in my forthcoming book, which, which I'm two or three chapters into right now, it's that people care about what's going on in the world. And for as long as we still have elections, people react to what is the person I voted for doing, or what is the person I didn't vote for who won doing. And so I think that we're probably going to be ok. Robert But I appreciate the concern. Robin Euler asks, as someone who's retired, how could I participate in a general strike, hypothetically? Well, that's a, a great question. We are increasingly talking about is this the time for a general strike, meaning it's time to bring the economic pillars of the economy to a grinding halt to try to encourage some kind of change at the top of the federal government. If you're not working, what do you have to strike from? The truth is, if you're not working, you can still participate in a general strike. General strikes often coincide with mass assemblies of people in urban centers. Whether you have a job or not, you can participate in that General strikes sometimes also are combined with reducing economic activity. Strategically, whether you're retired or working, you can participate in that. There are activism opportunities. There are opportunities to engage in different ways with people in power. So just because you don't have a job to not go to if there were to be a general strike, doesn't mean that you can't participate in a meaningful way. No Tonight wrote in about food stamps on Reddit. The user notonight9856 says things are going to get really bad if people lose SNAP benefits. There are millions of people who defend on food stamps to feed their families. I also happen to have a 64 year old mother who relies on a combination of that and disability checks to provide for herself. One of the worst things that can happen right now is for a large number of people who are already struggling to suddenly lose access to food. A person with a hungry family can go from being rational and law abiding to doing whatever it takes to survive, even if that means breaking the law or hurting someone else. That shit has real implications beyond politics. We're probably going to see an increase in crime if this goes on long enough. I'm not offering a solution here, and I know a lot of folks already get this, but it's just been heavy on my mind. With the news about SNAP benefits possibly coming to a halt next month, there's only so much people can take before survival instinct kicks in. Don't even get me started with health care, because I know it's probably next in line posting this more out of curiosity. Yeah, you know this. This post gets to something we've talked about before for not only I believe that there is a moral and ethical case to be made for providing everybody with access to health care, access to food, and access to basic housing. Now a lot of conservatives love to come in and go, they don't deserve it. We're just going to be a country of freeloaders. The the government can't solve every problem for people. We're not talking about solving every problem. We're saying as a rich developed country, food, shelter and health care are bare minimums. If you aren't convinced by the moral argument, by the ethical argument, there is an argument about crime and economics and fiscal conservatism to be made, which is that when we've studied what happens when people don't have access to those things, we know that crime goes up. We know that antisocial behavior goes up. When people have no shelter, no access to health care and no food, they become more willing in many cases to commit crimes. Not everybody, but it raises the crime level. It has social costs. It puts uninsured people in the emergency room slowing down and delaying care for people. It puts people in positions of living on the streets which can be bad for local businesses who then have less revenue and pay less in taxes and that hurts the economy. It is both morally right but also fiscally conservative in a sense and socio culturally desirable for everybody to have shelter, food and access to health care. And taking away food stamps exactly like this viewer suggests is going to put the same kind of pressure for societal problems. Hero Fighter 24 posted on the subreddit who do you think will be candidates in the 2028 presidential election? Personally, I think these will be the candidates wrote Hero firefighter for the Democrats Gavin Newsom or JB Pritzker, VP AOC Klobuchar or Gretchen Whitmer? On the Republican side, he writes JD Vance, VP is Ron DeSantis or Marco Rubio. What about you? What are your predictions? Note, please, none of the there won't be an election stuff because states run elections, not the federal government, so it is impossible to cancel them. Yeah, I am it. It's too early for me to start making predictions, but I do think Newsom and Pritzker are plausible candidates for Democrats. AOC is vp. Maybe. I don't really see Klobuchar or Whitmer going for vp, but that's just my instinct. I'm not sure. It does seem that J.D. vance, at least for now, is the heir apparent to the Trump throne. I don't know that I see DeSantis willing to be J.D. vance's VP. He's, you know, quite a bit older and I don't know that he would go for playing second fiddle to to Vance and potentially the same thing for Marco Rubio. I don't know that that Marco Rubio would be up for that. But it does seem that J.D. vance, unless Republicans choose to go in a different direction, which they probably should for the good of the country in the world, but I don't know if they will. I don't know that there is a real Trump seems okay with crowning JD Vance the heir apparent combo Nickel55 wrote in and said hopeful at the number of older 55 plus white people at my no Kings protest in MAGA country. I live in rural Michigan near Hillsdale College. My county voted over 70% Trump. Most older white people that I meet lean heavily to the right. I was pleasantly surprised at the volume of white people over the age of 55 at the rally I attended. I hope it is a good, a sign of good things to come. Agreed. And presented with without comment. I saw the same thing and I think it's a great thing. This was a no Kings that really engaged a large demographic swath of the country. Also ideologically different. I don't mean that there were hardcore right wingers at no Kings, but there was a range from further left to center left and everybody mostly was getting along and it seemed like an extraordinarily successful Protestant. All right, finally, from YouTube, job hijk, I hope I pronounced that correctly, says, amazing how our government works. We're building a ballroom during a shutdown using money that nobody seems to know the source of. And Mikey, meaning maga, Mike Johnson still insists he can't legally swear in at Alita Grijalva. What a country. Yeah, it's, it's not only that. I mean, we have a president that is completely incoherent, making unhinged and disoriented political speeches during Asia trips to members of the military. We have true fascists that work for Trump, pushing a level of authoritarianism we've not seen and I don't know how long. I mean, there are a lot of things happening right now that are stunning to even acknowledge. And to go back to one of the earlier messages, people in other countries are realizing this and they, they understand how crazy this is. What does it say about our country that half of our country seems unable to recognize the horrors of what's going on while most of the rest of the world gets it, even though we're here and they're not? Terrifying. Terrifying stuff. We have a phenomenal bonus show for you today. Make sure you sign up@join pacman.com to get instant access. You can use the coupon code. It will end soon. To save about 50% off of the cost of your membership. And I want to say a big thank you to Jared Huffman and Glenn otero, our newest two members at join pacman.com I'll see you on the bonus show.