11/26/25: Leaked call exposes Trump as approval craters, Republicans raise alarm

Summary

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The David Pakman Show – Episode Summary

Episode Date: November 26, 2025

Title: "Leaked call exposes Trump as approval craters, Republicans raise alarm"

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Episode Overview

In this episode, David Pakman breaks down explosive news of a leaked call in which Donald Trump's envoy explains to Russian officials how to manipulate Trump with flattery. Pakman analyzes the broader implications for U.S. foreign policy, Trump's cratering approval in Republican states, chaos within his administration, and widespread concern among GOP operatives about the approaching 2026 midterm elections.

The show combines sharp political analysis, media critique, and a critical look at the facts and spin surrounding the Trump administration’s actions, approval ratings, and prospects for his party.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Leaked Call: How to Manipulate Trump (05:56–12:12)

• Bombshell Revelation: A leaked phone call catches Trump envoy Steve Witkoff coaching Putin’s advisor Yuri Ushakov on exactly how to flatter Trump—suggesting praise for Trump's supposed Gaza deal would soften him for a Russia-friendly peace plan on Ukraine.
• Pakman’s Analysis:
  • This isn’t about diplomatic strategy, but pure ego massaging—a humiliation and a serious national security risk.
  • Quote:

    “Our adversaries are quickly learning...our foreign policy is powered by memes, vanity, compliments, and ego massaging. That’s a real national security risk.”
    (09:59, David Pakman)

• Transcript Excerpt Highlights:
  • Witkoff: “Here’s how you placate Trump...tell him he’s a genius. Tell him his deal in Gaza is just brilliant.”
  • Ushakov: “We will say this, we will say that, we will say whatever.”
• Trump’s Reaction:
  • Instead of denying or disciplining, Trump says, “This is negotiation.” (11:53)
  • Pakman’s Analysis:

    “Trump doesn’t even understand that he got played. That is what makes him such an easy mark.”
    (12:12, David Pakman)

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2. Trump’s Losses & Disconnection from Reality (13:06–18:12)

• On Ukraine Peace Deal:
  • Trump claims Russia’s only “concession” is “they stop fighting”—ignoring that the deal lets Russia keep seized Ukrainian land.
  • Quote:

    “The word ‘more’ there is doing some heavy lifting, because this deal lets Russia keep a bunch of the territory that it stole.”
    (13:30, David Pakman)

• On Trade and Tariffs:
  • Pakman points out Trump takes credit for marginally restoring trade with China after his own tariffs previously tanked soybean sales.
  • Quote:

    “Trump set a massive blaze and now he’s putting out the shed. The fire is off in the shed, even though it’s still burning in the house. And Trump wants to be greeted as a hero for partially putting out that fire.”
    (14:59, David Pakman)

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3. Domestic Turmoil: FBI and Losing Political Cases (16:25–18:12)

• On Comey and James Prosecutions:
  • Trump refuses to admit defeat after prosecutions are tossed, insisting, “They got out on a technicality...if you look at the actual charges, boy are they guilty.” (16:26, Political Analyst 2, as Trump)
• On FBI Director Cash Patel:
  • Scandal surrounds Patel for misuse of resources; insiders expect Trump to replace him soon, despite Trump insisting Patel is “doing a great job.” (17:24–18:12)

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4. Trump's Shrinking Schedule and Visible Decline (40:56–51:09)

• Pulled Back from Duty:
  • NYT investigation shows Trump’s public schedule reduced by 40% compared to his prior term, often working only noon to 5 PM, with diminished extracurriculars (even golf).
  • Quote:

    “Trump’s day is often now not starting until after lunch anymore...How can you run the most powerful government on earth from noon to 5?”
    (41:59, David Pakman)

• Comparison with Biden:
  • The right once obsessed over Biden’s early “lids,” but now ignores Trump’s sharper decline.
  • Quote:

    “If Biden had a 40% schedule reduction...would they shrug?...Well, we know the answer because we saw it while Biden was president.”
    (46:56, David Pakman)

• Physical & Cognitive Decline:
  • Increasingly slurred speech, falling asleep in meetings, unexplained medical visits add to reports from experts.

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5. Trump’s Unfactual Claims and Public Meltdowns (47:16–50:48)

• False Claims at Turkey Pardon:
  • Trump declares D.C. had “not a single murder in six months”—blatantly false (8 murders in October alone).
  • On Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker:
    • Trump calls him a “big fat slob,” highlighting his tendency towards personal insult.
  • Ego & Authoritarian Bluster:
    • Rambling about crime reduction and deploying the National Guard; stories often disconnected from reality.
  • Thanksgiving Turkey Pardon:
    • Trump appears confused while pardoning the turkeys, “Let’s go and give Gobble Waddle...Waddles, by the way, is missing in action. But that’s okay...”
      (50:48, Donald Trump)

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6. Approval Ratings Plummet in Red States, GOP Panic (28:17–29:17, 63:23–66:53)

• Statistical Collapse:
  • Trump’s net approval now negative in 20 states he easily won in 2024. Oklahoma, once +27, now -7—a 34-point swing.
  • Quote:

    “That is a shift so large it is almost unprecedented.”
    (28:17, David Pakman)

  • Only Idaho sees a net positive Trump approval.
• Electoral Implications:
  • Fox poll: 76% of voters say economy is not doing well.
  • Democrats up in Congressional ballot by 2 points since shutdown.
• Republican Alarm:
  • Laura Ingraham warns, “The midterms right now look ugly...” and, “We are sliding towards total destruction in 2026 unless something changes.” (63:23)
  • Pakman explains midterm history: "For presidents with approval under 50, the party in power loses 37 seats..." (65:25, David Pakman)

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7. 2028 GOP: JD Vance as Trumpism's Future? (34:24–35:08)

• Turning Point USA (TPUSA) Moves:
  • Erica Kirk confirms TPUSA is already “laying the groundwork for JD [Vance] to be the nominee in 2028.” (35:08, Erica Kirk)
  • Pakman draws distinction:

    “Vance is not really Trump’s guy...He’s Peter Thiel’s guy.”
    (36:15, David Pakman)

  • Predicts a possible future: “If JD Vance does end up leading the Republican Party...it’s going to be potentially even more authoritarian...shaped by the ideological fantasies of tech oligarchs...” (36:45, David Pakman)

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8. Media Spin, Messaging, and Gas Price “Relativism” (53:34–59:36)

• Thanksgiving Meal & Walmart:
  • Thanksgiving dinners are “cheaper” this year only because meals are smaller and brand-name products replaced with generics.
  • Pakman’s Critique:

    “It’s not about elitism...it’s objectively cheaper [because] they’re using cheaper products.” (54:01, David Pakman)

• Fox News on Gas Prices:
  • Reporter says, “People have conflicting views about gas prices” (despite showing the price is essentially unchanged—$3.05/gal).
  • Pakman’s Take:

    “Fox is suggesting gas prices are like a movie review...some people believe gas is cheap, some people believe gas is expensive.”
    (59:36, David Pakman)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s Foreign Policy Vulnerability:

  “Whoever flatters Trump the most gets what they want. If praising Trump gets you American concessions, then our allies should be terrified, and our adversaries are taking notes.”
  (09:21, David Pakman)

• On Red State Approval Collapse:

  “This is not a one state issue. This is not a regional decline. This is a broad national collapse.”
  (28:28, David Pakman)

• On “Gas Prices Are an Opinion”:

  “Gas prices are not a vibe...A gallon of gas doesn’t cost what you feel it costs when you wake up in the morning.”
  (59:36, David Pakman)

• Laura Ingraham Raises Alarm:

  “The midterms right now look ugly unless the Republicans really get serious.”
  (63:23, Laura Ingraham)

• Thanksgiving Turkey Pardon Weirdness:

  “Let’s go and give Gobble Waddle. Waddles, by the way, is missing in action. But that’s okay. We’ll pretend Waddle is here...”
  (50:48, Donald Trump)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Leaked Trump-Russia call breakdown: 05:56–12:12
• Trump’s responses & failures (trade, Comey prosecutions): 13:06–18:12
• Cash Patel’s looming ouster (FBI chaos): 18:14–21:29
• JD Vance and post-Trump MAGA: 34:24–36:45
• Trump’s schedule shrink & cognitive concerns: 40:56–46:56
• Turkey pardon & Trump’s public blunders: 47:16–51:09
• GOP panic over midterms & historic context: 63:23–66:53
• Thanksgiving meal “cost” & gas price fact/spin: 53:34–59:36

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Episode Takeaways

• Major National Security Concern: The leaked call confirms foreign leaders can manipulate Trump with targeted praise, undermining American interests.
• Administration in Disarray: Internal leaks, high-level rumors (FBI, prosecutions), and staff chaos highlight instability.
• Approval Freefall: Trump faces cratering support even in traditional red states, stirring GOP fears ahead of the 2026 midterms.
• Dwindling Stamina and Public Confusion: Trump’s sharply reduced schedule, decline in cognitive performance, and bizarre public appearances mirror concerns once weaponized against Biden.
• GOP’s Future & Vance’s Rise: Turning Point USA is pushing JD Vance as the next standard bearer, but Pakman warns this may mean a shift from populist Trumpism to a more technocratic, oligarch-driven MAGA 2.0.
• Media Manipulation: Gas prices and inflation used as political footballs—conservative outlets promote “opinions” on indisputable facts to protect perceptions.
• Warning for Democrats & Republicans: Pakman believes anti-corruption is the best bipartisan rallying point as GOP fractures become clear, and the 2026 midterms loom.

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This episode offers an in-depth, critical, and sometimes darkly comic look at the mounting crises and contradictions at the heart of the Trump presidency and Republican politics in late 2025, pulling no punches on the risks for American democracy.

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Transcript

[David Pakman]

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[Political Analyst 1]

Oh, hey.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

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[David Pakman]

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[David Pakman (Main Host)]

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[David Pakman]

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[David Pakman (Main Host)]

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[David Pakman]

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[David Pakman (Main Host)]

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[David Pakman]

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[David Pakman (Main Host)]

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[David Pakman]

In fact, wrap up my old phone too for my Aunt Rosa. Forget that. Aunt Liz will be jealous.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Sounds like my family drama.

[David Pakman]

Oh, I got it. I'll give it to my abuela. I'll take reindeer paper with. Hey, where are you going?

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

To T Mobile. The holidays are better. AT T Mobile get four iPhone 17s on us. No trade in needed when you switch plus four lines for just 25 bucks a line. And now T mo T mobile is available in US cellular stores with 24 month legal credits and four eligible board ins on essentials for well qualified customers. Auto pay + taxes, fees and $35 device connection charge credits and imbalance due if you pay off earlier. Cancel contact US Finance Agreement 256 gigabytes. $830 required. Visit T mobile.com we have a bombshell leaked call that exposes Trump as maybe the easiest mark on the world stage because his own envoy has been caught telling Russia how to flatter Trump so that Putin gets what he wants. Trump fell for it and then actually bragged about it. We're also going to look at areas where this administration is losing. Those are tariffs, jobs, foreign policy. And Trump's answers on these issues are so disconnected from reality that you do have to wonder whether he knows what's happening anymore. And. And meanwhile, new reporting finds that the White House is protecting Trump, curtailing his schedule in exactly the way that we were told was a problem when it was Joe Biden as President of the United States. Meanwhile, chaos at the FBI as rumors swirl that Cash Patel is going to be dismissed, although Donald Trump denies it. And then we will look at 20 red states. These are 20 states that Trump won. 20 where his approval is now underwater. Republicans are privately panicking. Laura Ingraham is publicly panicking about what this might suggest about the 2026 midterms. And meanwhile, is the price of gas a fact or an opinion? I know most of you know the answer, but it seems that there are some people who do not. We are in the last 24 hours of our Thanksgiving Feeding America pledge drive. Every new membership at join pacman.com or@substack. David pakman.com will be donated in its entirety to Feeding America. We have raised over $15,000, funded over 150,000 meals, and it is the final 24 hours. Well, this one is really tough. If you care about the perception of the United States as a strong country around the world, if you care about the perception of the American president as someone who is the one calling the shots rather than the one being played, let me explain what's going on. There's a newly leaked phone call. And what the phone call reveals is Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, teaching top Russian officials, coaching them, how do you flatter Trump so that Putin gets what he wants? Not how do we get a just and equitable peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, not preparing them for the tough negotiator that is Trump? No, it is simply Steve Witkoff telling Yuri Ushakov, who's one of Putin's top foreign policy guys, what do you need to say to Trump to flatter him so that he will then support this 28 point plan that was according to some, drafted by Russia and which is way more favorable to Russia than it is to Ukraine, letting Russia keep land that it stole and so much more. These are not broad talking points. Okay? Steve Witkoff gives Yuri Ushakov a script and says, here is how you placate Trump. Here's how you suck up to Trump in a way that will get him to say, yeah, let's do this peace plan which is so great for Putin. Tell him he's a genius. Tell him his deal in Gaza is just brilliant. He preys upon the orange man and then Trump will support massive concessions to Russia in this completely one sided peace deal. Territory handed over, the end of Ukraine's possible path to Naito Russia. Welcome Back to the G8. Everything Putin wants and all you need to do is flatter Trump. We knew intuitively that this was how Trump worked. We understood that. But now we are seeing the proof of it where Donald Trump, supposedly the master negotiator, doesn't see any of it coming, falls for it instantly. So he Here is a transcript of this phone call that took place. Witkoff says, yuri, Yuri, here's what I would do. My recommendation. And Yuri Ushakov says, yes, please. Witkoff advises him, I would make the call and just reiterate that you congratulate the President on this achievement, that you supported it, you supported it, that you respect that he is a man of peace and you're just, you're really glad to have seen it happen. So I would say that I think from that it's going to be a really good call because let me tell you what I told the President. I told the President that you, that the Russian Federation has always wanted a peace deal. That's my belief. I told the President, I believe that. And I believe the question is, the issue is that we have two nations that are having a hard time coming to a compromise and when we do, we're going to have a peace deal. I'm even thinking that maybe we set out like a 20 point peace proposal, just like we did in Gaza, which they did, by the way. And it's great for Russia. We put a 20 point Trump plan together that was 20 points for peace. And I'm thinking maybe we do the same thing with you. My point is this. And Yuri Ushakov goes, ok, ok, my friend. I think that very point our leaders could discuss. Hey, Steve, I agree with you that he will congratulate, he will say that Mr. Trump is a real peace man. And so, and so that he will say, Witkoff explains to Ushakov, how do you placate Trump and get him to go with what you want? And Yuri Ushakov goes, we're going to do it. I think that's a good idea. We'll say this, we'll say that, we will say whatever. Now, days later, what happens? Trump posts to Truth Social bragging, putin called and congratulated me on my incredible accomplishment of peace with Gaza. That is exactly what Witkoff told the Russians to have them say back to Trump. Trump got manipulated and Trump then broadcast to the world how easily manipulable he is. Now, the bigger picture is that this is not only about gullibility, although Trump is really gullible. The leak of this phone call shows there isn't a broader strategy guiding Trump's foreign policy. There aren't overarching values that he won't compromise on. It's not even about what is primarily in the interests of the United States. And Trump is, after all, the President of the United States. Whoever flatters Trump the most gets what they want. If praising Trump gets you American concessions, then our Allies should be terrified, and our adversaries are taking notes. Now, Putin is not stupid. We can say a lot of things about the Russian leader, and we do, but Putin's not stupid. Putin knows Trump needs to have his ego stroked at every opportunity. He knows that Trump is enamored with strongmen. He knows Trump will sell out an entire country and maybe even an entire alliance if someone tells Trump he's a genius and it works. And how did Trump respond when the leak came out? Did Trump deny that he was manipulated? Did he fire Witkoff because Witkoff was advising the adversaries on how to get one over on Trump? No. Trump said that this is negotiation. Trump doesn't even understand that he got played. We'll have the audio and video of that a little bit later. But the bottom line is the following. We have a Trump envoy helping Russia craft a plan to carve up Ukraine and spoon feed it to Trump, intermixed with compliments, the way you would use with a toddler. Trump takes the bait and brags about it because Trump doesn't even have the wherewithal to realize that he's getting played. So it is an embarrassment. But it's more than that. It's really dangerous at a core level, because our adversaries are quickly learning, as if they didn't know it from the first term, that our foreign policy is powered by memes, vanity, compliments, and ego massaging. That's a real national security risk. So my question is, you know, what was Trump in on it in the sense of knowing exactly what was being done? Was he too clueless to recognize that he was being used and placated in this way? Either way, Ukraine loses under this deal. Naito loses. Democracy loses. But there is a winner here, and the winner is Vladimir Putin. So tell me what you think in the comments. Was this stupidity? Is it corruption? Is it merely the result of egomania as the primary driving force for Donald Trump? If you are as stunned by this as I am, make sure that you like the video and share it. And I'd love it if you hit the subscribe button as well. We need people to know just how far this goes. All right, so Trump is quickly losing credibility on everything. Trump has lost credibility on Russia, Ukraine negotiations after we found out that Trump has endorsed a peace deal that is phenomenal for Russia and terrible for Ukraine. Trump's losing on his health care plan, which was two weeks away in July of 2020. Trump's losing on tariffs. Trump's losing on jobs. He just lost on the political Prosecution of James Comey. And you have to see how he seems to have a complete and total inability to realize when he gets played. Here is Trump being asked about the leaked audio. This is the leaked audio where his envoy, Steve Witkoff is telling Russia how to play Trump. How do you manipulate Trump? Witkoff says to Yuri Ushakov, have Putin praise Trump for the Gaza peace deal. Trump will then give Putin whatever he wants. Trump is asked about it. And what's amazing is Trump doesn't get it. Trump doesn't realize he was played. Trump simply says, hey, these are negotiations. This audio that Bloomberg has of Wyckoff coaching the Russians on how to appeal to you and get on your quick side.

[Political Analyst 2]

No, but that's a standard thing, you know, because he's got to sell this to Ukraine. He's going to sell Ukraine to Russia. That's what he's, that's what a dealmaker does. You got to say, look, they want this, you've got to convince them of this. You know, that's a very standard form of negotiation. I haven't heard it, but I heard it was standard negotiations.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

It was very much not standard. Trump doesn't understand what happened. And this is what makes him such an easy mark. This is, this is the crux of it. He doesn't understand the ways in which he gets played, which makes him a perfect mark. Witkoff was telling the Russians, here's how you manipulate Trump. Trump is acting like Witkoff was just kind of priming each side for productive negotiations towards something neutral. That's not what was going on. The Russians were being told, you have a plan that is phenomenal for you. Here's how you butter Trump up in order to get it. It's almost like Witkoff is representing Russia more than he's representing the interests of the United States or of the global community. Trump is then asked by Jeff Mason, what concessions will Russia have to make as part of this deal? And Trump's answer leaves a lot to be desired.

[Political Analyst 2]

Next week in Moscow.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Next week in Moscow, I think so.

[Erica Kirk]

Concessions are the Russians going to have to make?

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Sorry. And the follow up question is actually not from Jeff Mason. Okay, what concessions will the Russians have to make?

[Political Analyst 2]

Concessions have been concession is they stop fighting and they don't take any more land. Again, it's a war that would have never happened if I was president. This was not anything that was going to happen.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

This happened because of the big concession is that they stop fighting. Well, that everybody stops fighting. If you make a deal and they don't take Any more land. And the word more there is doing some heavy lifting because this deal lets Russia keep a bunch of the territory that it stole. What a deal. And Trump doesn't even seem to realize that he got played. Trump says he spoke to President Xi of China about buying farm products and says she agreed with me. And this is another example of how Trump now wants all the credit in the world for putting out a little bit of the fire that he started. Take a listen to this. How is your call with the Japanese prime minister?

[Donald Trump]

Right.

[Political Analyst 2]

I had a great talk. I have a very good relationship with her. I also had a very good talk with President Xi of China, and I think that part of the world is doing fine.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Can you tell us about the content of your talks?

[Political Analyst 2]

Mostly trade. I spoke to President Xi about a lot of things, but trade and buying our farm products. And he said he agreed with me.

[Donald Trump]

He's going to.

[Political Analyst 2]

I think he's going to very much surprise you with the upside. I think he's going to. I asked him, I'd like you to buy it a little faster. I'd like you to buy more and more. He's more or less agreed to do that. I think we will be pleasantly surprised by.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

He has more or less agreed to do that. Remember that soybean sales used to be 25 million? I forget the denominator. I believe it's metric tons. Used to be 25 million. It went to zero. And we are now supposed to pray at the altar of Trump because after Trump's tariffs brought soybean sales to China from 25 million to zero, they've placed a purchase order for a million which, by the way, hasn't even been fulfilled. And then they're going to start buying a little bit faster and maybe we'll get up to 12 million, although I don't even know that. I believe that. But even if they did, it would be less than half of what they were buying. Trump set a massive blaze and now he's putting out the shed. He's. The fire is off in the shed, even though it's still burning in the house. And Trump wants to be greeted by as a hero for partially putting out that fire. Trump explaining in this Air Force One press gaggle his losses on Russian negotiations, his losses on trade. He's taking losses left and right. And I don't know that he gets it. The issue of James Comey and Letitia James came up, as you all know by now, or maybe, maybe you do. We covered it earlier this week. The prosecutions against James Comey and Letitia James have been thrown out. Trump is asked about having faith in his prosecutor, who really knows nothing about prosecuting Lindsey Halligan, and Trump goes, oh, she's great.

[Political Analyst 2]

He's doing a great job.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

I think this week we saw those cases against James Comey and Letitia James tossed out.

[Erica Kirk]

Do you still have faith in Lindsey Halligan?

[Political Analyst 2]

Oh, she's great. I think she's great. They got out on a technicality, and you'll see what happens from here on. But if you look at the actual, actual charges, I think anybody that looks at it very fairly would say, boy, are they guilty. So let's see what happens over the next week. You know, the court didn't say you couldn't bring the case, rebring the case or appeal the case. So they have a lot of options. They're going to call the shot. I'm not calling the shot.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

So Trump refusing to acknowledge that this is objectively a disastrous loss for his politically oriented prosecution of Comey and James, but he's taking those losses left and right. We are going to talk about the rumors that Cash Patel is on his way out as FBI director. For what it's worth, Trump denying it.

[Political Analyst 2]

Here and there would be nothing like it.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Are you planning to replace Cash Patel?

[Political Analyst 2]

No, he's doing a good job. Cash Patel? No, he's doing a great job, I think.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

All right, well, we'll see if Trump ends up kicking him out. And then finally, Trump asked about health care. And another area in which the losses are just piling up. Here is Trump's current view on when we will get the damn health care plan. Mr. President, are you planning to unveil a health care plan anytime soon?

[Political Analyst 2]

We're looking at different alternatives. I mean, I like my plan the best. Don't give any money to the insurance companies. Give it to the people directly. Let them go out by their own health care plan. And we're looking at that. If that can work. We're looking at that. That's sort of taken off. That's what I like. Don't give the money to the insurance companies. They go out. They go out and buy their own plan. You give the money to the people.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

The only problem, of course, is that the money you give to the people, they then spend with the health insurance company. So the health insurance company still gets the money, but you take away all leverage by saying to individuals, go negotiate. Have you ever negotiated with Aetna by yourself? It doesn't go particularly well. The losses piling up for Trump as We head into Thanksgiving and then we've got the chaos at the FBI. The insanity inside of Trump's FBI is reaching a fever pitch. And there are now widespread reports that FBI Director Cash Patel is on the verge of being fired by Donald Trump. Now, the question that some are asking is, will Trump even let Cash Patel survive this weekend? For now, Trump says no, Cash Patel is doing fine. But there are a number of reasons, a growing list of reasons that Cash Patel is in trouble. And these are the sorts of things that would get mid level managers fired at a retail chain. Never mind. If you're head of the F.B.I. now, let me just remind you, Cash Patel was caught using a government jet for what sources are calling a date night, flying off to watch his girlfriend perform in Pennsylvania. He used an FBI SWAT team to protect his girlfriend, not to protect the country, to protect his girlfriend. This is the sort of stuff you tend to see in far more corrupt countries than the United States. Although we're getting there. And reportedly people inside the administration are just fed up with this. Attorney General Pam Bondi, Deputy AG Todd Blanche are annoyed that Cash Patel keeps posting these victory laps on social media that don't materialize. You know, he posts that we've had a breakthrough look at what happened in the aftermath of the Charlie Kirk killing. And then months of work by FBI agents in some cases are blown up by the things that Cash Patel posts. And meanwhile, it is leaking from people close to Donald Trump that Cash Patel is on very thin ice. Now, Trump usually doesn't go public and say, I am not happy with this person. He usually insists that everything's fine until. Until he's, it's not. But there are sources that are saying Cash Patel's removal is closer than ever. There are replacements already being floated. Andrew Bailey, the guy that Trump slid into this weird co deputy director role, his name is being floated as potentially the right person to take over for Cash Patel. And meanwhile, you've got Dan Bongino, who is also co deputy director of the FBI, who would love the job, but apparently he is not really in line for it. Now, in the middle of all this, the White House is publicly pretending nothing is happening. They said, in addition to Trump saying, no, Cash is great, everything's fine. The White House put out a statement saying Patel is critical to the team and he has participated in restoring integrity. Not exactly my interpretation of it, but this is exactly what you say when you are about to fire someone, which is you say, we are really thrilled with the job that you are doing and that can quickly transition into we are thrilled about the next job that you are going to do. The timeline really matters because under federal law, Trump can replace Cash Patel with Andrew Bailey without Senate confirmation as soon as December 15th. Bailey has to hit 90 days in his current position. On December 15th, he will. And if that happens without a Senate confirmation, which would be very ugly, Bailey would be able to just take over for Cash Patel. So there is a belief, because Bailey is seen at least as steadier than Cash Patel, there is a belief that after December 15th, assuming that nothing happens this weekend, that after December 15th, Bailey is simply going to be put in there and he will be able to skip Senate confirmation, which is another theme we see with this administration, which is if we can avoid accountability, if we can avoid confirmation hearings or whatever process is normally required, that is better. So if we zoom out, this is the way a lot of this stuff works with maga. You bring someone in who's incompetent or unqualified, they blow things up, they embarrass the administration, they get into public fights with loyalists and they waste taxpayer money, they make unforced errors and then you are fired essentially for the type of behavior that was rewarded up front. So Patel might be busy doing a good job, but the knives are very clearly out. They've got a replacement lined up and for now Trump is saying, I'm confident in him and that's the way it is until the person is fired. So it is a Cash Patel crash out. And the real question, if you believe the insiders who say this is inevitable, is does Cash Patel have days left as FBI director, or does he have weeks left at FBI director? At the same time, Tulsi Gabbard was very close to being out as DNI Director of National Intelligence, but she went quiet, then came out and strongly praised Trump and she was able to survive. So we'll see. You think Cash Patel lasts two weeks? Let me know in the comments. If you regularly deal with PDFs, you've probably asked yourself, why are the big name tools so complicated and expensive? Why do I need a monthly subscription? Our sponsor upf gives you every PDF and AI feature you need. Faster, easier and for a fraction of the price of the big name software. No subscription needed. With updf, you can edit text, images and layouts directly in your PDF. No learning curve. You can highlight comment. You can annotate reports or proposals, convert to Word, PowerPoint, Excel or images in seconds. The formatting stays perfect. If you need to scan something UPDF built in OCR turns it into editable text instantly. You can merge, split, organize or compress. It is all built in and updated. AI Assistant will take it further, enabling you to summarize long reports, translate entire PDFs while keeping the formatting, compare versions side by side, turn a dense document into clear mind maps. One lifetime license covers up to four devices Windows, Mac, iOS and Android. And this Black Friday it is 50% off when you go to David pakman.com/ updated PDF the link is in the description Donald Trump has already packed his second term cabinet with loyalists. He's threatened deportation as political punishment. He's expanded executive authority in ways we have not seen in modern history. These are real changes that are happening right now. And what's even more alarming is that a lot of the media is either glossing over the worst of it or they're reframing it so it all sounds a little more palatable. And that is why I use Ground News. This is a news comparison tool. Doesn't just feed you headlines, it shows you. Here's how different outlets, left, right, center are covering the same story. And this is one of the few tools I know of that can really help you detect the political spin, the bias catch stories that your usual sources might downplay or not cover at all on everything from immigration policy to economic shifts. If you want to get a bigger picture, a broader picture of what's being reported, Ground News is an invaluable source to keep you informed. And Ground News is offering my audience 40% off their top tier vantage plan. You'll only pay five bucks a month. Go to Ground News, slash Pacman or enter the code Pacman in the app to get started. The link is in the description. You have to see what is happening in 2020 red states. These are states that Donald Trump won. His approval is collapsing, absolute and total collapse states that he carried a year ago. There is a new YouGov economist poll. Trump is now underwater, meaning more people disapprove than approve of the job he's doing in 20 states that he won in 2024. Overall, his approval is negative in every state other than 11. This is not a one state issue. This is not a regional decline. This is a broad national collapse. Now just as an example, the biggest crash is in Oklahoma. In January, Trump was plus 27 in Oklahoma, meaning 27% of the population. 27 more percent of the population approved rather than disapproved. That is reversed by 34 points. Trump is now minus 7 in Oklahoma, a 34 point swing. And that's One of the most reliably Republican states in the country. That is a shift so large that it is almost unprecedented. Unprecedented for sitting presidents in states typically aligned with their party. Now we want to really delve into the political implications. What does this mean in terms of are Republicans going to lose the house in 2026, for example? The important thing is that this is not only in Oklahoma. Trump's approval is down in every state other than Idaho. Idaho seems fine with what Donald Trump is doing, but it's the economy dragging him down. The shutdown disruption, the Epstein document backlash issues just keep coming up again and again and again. We look at the national trend, it's pretty similar. Nate Silver said Trump's disapproval is now higher than at this point in his first term. And then here's a report from CNN's Harry Enton about this.

[Political Analyst 1]

I think it's pretty clear, at least from a political angle, that, that Democrats won the shutdown. Why do I say that? Well, first let's take a look at Donald Trump's net approval rating. It's way down from where it was pre shutdown.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Right.

[Political Analyst 1]

Pre shutdown, his net approval rating was at minus 10 points. Now it's at minus 15 points. The lowest his net approval rating has been during his entire second term in office. So the shutdown, it might have initially been helping Donald Trump out a little bit, or at least his ratings weren't falling. But now his ratings have sunk to a term too low.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

What about Democrats? Is there a way to measure how.

[Political Commentator]

They may have fared?

[Political Analyst 1]

Yeah.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Okay.

[Political Analyst 1]

So, you know, a lot of times we look at, okay, what's congressional Democrats approval rating. I think that's the wrong way to look at it because what Democrats want is they want to get back into power. And the way they're going to get back into power is by winning the 2026 midterm elections. Unless, of course, there are so many House Republicans who resign over the course of the next year, although that's not likely to happen. But take a look at the generic congressional ballot. Pre shutdown, they were ahead by three points. Where are they now? They're ahead by five points.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

All right, so a two point gain for Democrats. But the big thing here is the collapse in Trump's approval. There's a Fox News poll, by the way, which found that 76% of the country, Fox News poll. And by the way, Fox polling is pretty good. I know sometimes people hear, oh, Fox News, Fox polling is sort of a separate arm from, you know, hearing Laura Ingraham with her Insane rants. Fox polling found 76% of voters say the economy is not doing well. This is far worse than at the end of Biden's presidency. And by the way, that makes sense. The economy is objectively worse today than it was at the end of Joe Biden's presidency. And the polls suggest that it's inflation, tariffs and uncertainty that are dragging down perceptions of the economy. Now, there is one other picture here that I think is worth noting. Among Republican voters, Trump's approval is still high. Now, you don't go from plus 27 to minus 7 in Oklahoma with only Democrats and independents saying, I don't like what you're doing. His approval has declined among Republicans, but it's still quite high. And I saw a comment online about this, which is that it's perfectly fine for some Republicans to go, I don't like what he's doing. I don't think the economy is doing well. But if when it comes time to vote, they will still say, well, I'd still rather this over any Democrat. The electoral implications can be sort of limited in that sense. So I think that another story here is it's not that Republicans are abandoning Donald Trump. It's that some of these broader coalitions that you need for stable approval, you need moderates, you need independents, you need certain demographics that, that move towards TRUMP In 24, they're drifting away. I saw another poll, although I don't have it handy, and I should. There was another poll about how after garnering record high Latino support for a Republican in 2024, the vast majority of those Latino voters have moved away from Donald Trump, which makes sense, by the way. I don't know why they voted for, for Trump in the first place. As a Latino American myself, I can tell you there was nothing Trump was offering that was appealing to me. Now, when we think about the effect of this on 2026, the margin for Republicans holding the House is very, very narrow. They have like a five seat margin right now. When a president's approval declines sharply in states they won just a year ago, midterm outcomes historically become a lot harder to predict, predict. And even a modest shift among independents can affect a lot of these competitive House races. That might come down to a point. Now, Trump is responding to all of this by saying the polls are fake. But I believe there is. If we want to be serious here, I think there's an opportunity, I don't know that Democrats and Republicans on average are going to agree, for example, on the issue of abortion or necessarily on what can be done or should be done with taxes. But I believe that there is an opportunity to find common ground with some of these Republicans on anti corruption. Listen, we can disagree about what the top tax rate should be. We can disagree about abortion, we can disagree about foreign policy. But this is an administration and a party that has come in and openly been corrupt. Trump is regulating crypto while his sons are running multibillion dollar crypto grifts. They're doing deals in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. And while Trump is glad handing, we need to unite against the corruption. And I hope and believe that to a degree that may be a message that can cross party lines. With the midterms coming up in just 11 months, we're going to follow closely and see what the effect will be there. Over the weekend we put out a piece on our substack asking Is Newsom vs Vance inevitable in 2028? We may be getting some information and closer to an answer when it comes to the Republican side of this question. So here we go, Turning Point usa, which is, you know, the MAGA Factory, previously run by the late Charlie Kirk, I guess now run by his widow, Erica Kirk. Although it's not totally clear to me what what their plan is, they are now acknowledging they're laying the groundwork for JD Vance 2028. Now we are three years out. And I think it's important to remember that rarely if ever is the obvious nominee three years out ultimately the nominee. Now I'm going to come back to that. But this news comes straight from Erica Kirk. She went on Megyn Kelly's live show, this is the live Megyn Kelly show. And she said after a bunch of hemming and hawing that efforts to get JD set up to be the nominee in 2028 are in the works. Not a hint, not a suggestion, but that it is happening. Take a listen.

[Erica Kirk]

Mobilize the youth. But also to share the message of how amazing the country we live in. Yes, we have faults. Anything with humans have faults. We're all sinful. But he appreciated that Charlie, Charlie was always there for him and he was always there for Charlie. And the president has always had a very soft spot in my heart because I got to witness that he wasn't just the president to my husband, he was a friend. And I'll never forget that.

[Donald Trump]

Yeah.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

And JD And Usha have been incredibly supportive. It's been really nice to see and.

[David Pakman]

I look forward to you guys throwing.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

The full weight of Turning Point behind them in about two, three years. Am I being subtle? No, it's don't worry.

[Erica Kirk]

It's already, you know, it's in the.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Works, but it's in the works. It's in the works. None of this should surprise anybody. Charlie Kirk was basically J.D. vance's hype man. When Trump was looking for a VP last year, Charlie supported him and pushed for him. And before Kirk was assassinated in Utah, he apparently told Eric Kirk that one of the last things on his mind was making sure that Vance had support for 2028. So Erica Kirk is stepping in here and saying not only are they going to keep the organization going, they are going to do what they can to keep Trumpism going and keep it alive after Trump leaves office. They believe J.D. vance is the guy to do it. Now here's the part that nobody in MAGA wants to say out loud. Vance is not really Trump's guy. Vance is Peter Thiel's guy. And Trump was reportedly sort of skeptical of Vance early on in the VP search. And it was not only Charlie Kirk, but also apparently Trump's kids, who for this sort of like crypto, technocratic teal esque wing of Republicanism, liked the idea of J.D. vance. And Vance's political rise, including the cash that it was built on and the messaging and the connections, it really was put in place by Peter Thiel. Thiel's worldview is not working class, red hat wearing maga. Not, not even close. It's this billionaire techno libertarian project that wants less democracy, it wants more hierarchy, and it really would love to run government like a private equity fund. So if JD Vance does end up leading the Republican Party and MAGA into 2028, I don't believe that that movement's going to look like Trumpism 2.0. I think it's going to be potentially even more authoritarian. It'll be shaped by some of the ideological fantasies of the tech oligarchs who see voting as an inconvenience that we have to deal with, but still figure out how to get what we want. And I think that's the real subtext here. We which is that turning point is pushing JD Vance because they want like a continuity. But what the people backing JD Vance want is an evolution. They want to shift. They want a post Trump MAGA that is certainly more polished but more obedient to the tech billionaire interests. And J.D. vance is like the test pilot of that movement. Now, Erica Kirk did do the usual hedging. She says, we have the midterms and you know, Trump's in office now and we should enjoy that. And all of that stuff. That stuff is standard. But the big message is they are building the infrastructure now and the plan now for JD Vance to ultimately be the heir to the MAGA throne. Now I want to go back to the warning. The obvious natural, inevitable nominee three years out is almost never the nominee. If you think about the 2008 primary and go back to 2005, no one in 2005 thought that Barack Obama would be the nominee in 2008. If you go to the 2012 election in 2009, no one thought that Mitt Romney was eventually going to be the Republican nominee. If you go back to 2013, Trump was treated like a joke, but he ended up being the nominee in 2016. Biden was written off in 2017 as he couldn't possibly be the nominee in 2020. So the point is these things rarely move in straight lines. Coalitions shift, scandals hit, etc. The arguable difference here is that Turning Point USA as a lever puller in MAGA world is different and we will see if Turning Point's influence is diminished post Charlie Kirk I would argue it already has been, but the fact that Turning Point is already building towards Vance 2028 suggests that they have a plan. What this says for the Democratic primary, we just don't know yet. It is easy to forget how many great family photos you have until you put them all in one place and see them. 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There's a breaking bombshell story that really appears to expose Trump's alarming decline and it is a specific type of decline that was pinned to President Joe Biden just feels like months ago. I guess it was almost a year ago. Let me explain. Remember when during the Biden presidency they would call a lid at 4pm a lid, meaning the President will not be doing anything more public. You can sort of like reporters can go home sort of thing. Thing. And right wing media, Fox News, everybody went into cardiac arrest. And every slow day where Biden didn't have a busy schedule was proof Biden is senile and he needs to be removed. He's being hidden. He's unfit. It's a constitutional crisis. Well, look at what is going on now with Donald Trump. Trump, 79, is quietly doing even less than Biden was doing when it was supposedly a crisis. And the very same people have nothing to say, which makes me wonder, did they really care about how much Biden was doing, or was it just a desperate attempt to try to attack Biden in any way that they could? What is this based on? There's a New York Times investigation and it found Trump has scaled back official appearances 39%. Basically 40% compared to the same period during Trump's first term. The number of official events is down by hundreds and hundreds, almost by half of his public duties. And that is just taking massive chunks out of the presidency. Trump's day used to start supposedly around 10:30 in the morning. Trump's day is often now not starting until after lunch anymore. And everything is being squeezed into noon to 5pm on just about every day. This is exactly what they were flipping out about when it was Biden having days that were shorter than some wanted. How can you run the most powerful government on earth from noon to 5? Well, I don't know. Are you worried that that's Trump's schedule? And then here's what really exposes the lie about how Trump is so energetic and all of this stuff. Trump has even cut back on golf. Now, I'm not going to play this game where it's like I criticize Trump for playing golf and I criticize Trump for not playing golf. It's not a criticism. Trump has historically played a lot of golf. Trump loves playing golf. Saturday and Sunday he was out at every club no matter what. But over time, Trump's golfing has diminished, Diminished. Diminished, you might say. Well, David, that's because he's finally busy doing presidential stuff. But it's not like I said, his presidential duties have also been cut 40%. And he's mostly only doing stuff since starting afternoon and ending by 5pm in November and in fact, since October 19th. So this has now been five weeks. Trump has only played two rounds of golf. It's not because he's suddenly a workaholic. It's not because he's finally putting in the hours to better the country for the American people. It seems as though Trump's body and or brain can't handle the work of being president anymore. And increasingly he's too tired to golf even. Is this a scheduling issue? No, it's not a scheduling issue. This seems to be a decline issue. Consider the number of times Trump has fallen asleep on camera at recent events. The Oval Office meeting about weight loss, drugs. Trump was struggling to stay awake, reacted when someone collapsed behind him. That's what it took to wake Trump up. So we have that and then of course, we have the medical secrecy. Trump, after revealing that he got an MRI at Walter Reed, doesn't know why he got it, doesn't know what they were looking for. The MRI wasn't mentioned in the medical disclosures. So none of it is reassuring. And then I know you all have noticed this, even if you look at videos of Trump being interviewed two years ago, his speech has declined dramatically. The breadth of vocabulary has declined. It's not even the same guy from 2023. Never mind 2020, never mind 2016. So we've just got to be honest, Trump's slowing down and it is accelerating. The things that we were told were dispositively negative about Biden, the reduced schedule, the reduced public events, etc. Trump's doing all of the exact same stuff. And so why don't the magazines care? Well, it's because it's Trump. They only cared about it when it was Biden. But there is a larger political issue that MAGA also doesn't want to talk about, which is that we are now hearing even from Dr. John Gartner. For example, Trump's brain isn't going to make it to the end of his term. His schedule is shrinking. It seems to be coinciding with what mental health experts are observing publicly. What is going to happen here? Is JD Vance, who doesn't have a cult behind him, going to have to take up some of the duties? I don't know. MAGA really is a one man personality cult. And without Trump, I don't know what happens to the Republican Party. You combine that with tariffs driving more inflation, you combine that with health care costs that are skyrocketing. Republicans should own the fallout from all of this and it could reshape the political map. But I just need the right wingers to answer Some really specific questions. If Biden had a 40% schedule reduction, if Biden didn't start work until afternoon, remember Biden was starting at 10 and they said that's too late. Trump starting at noon. If Biden suddenly stopped, you know, Biden wasn't a golfer. But if Biden stopped riding his bike, if Biden fell asleep during meetings, if Biden had a secret mri, would they shrug? Would they just go, ah, that's not really a story, or would they demand that he be removed from office? Well, we know the answer because we saw it while Biden was president. So I want to hear from the people that are supportive of Trump and think this is no big deal. Why don't you care that he's working a noon to 5 or 12:30 to 5 and has cut his public and official duties by 40%. Donald Trump spoke yesterday at I guess they're talking about it as a turkey pardon. Although as usual, it's never completely clear that Donald Trump understands what is going on. And Trump telling easily disprovable or provable lies, including that there has not been a single murder in Washington D.C. in six months.

[Donald Trump]

We're having murders like a lot of murders on a weekly basis. We haven't had a murder in six months and it doesn't sound good even to say that we haven't had a murder in six.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Well, it doesn't sound good because it's a lie.

[Donald Trump]

But when you were averaging one and even sometimes two of them week and you haven't had one in six months, you can walk with your family down.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Well, listen, it turns out there were eight murders in D.C. in October and there were five in September and eight in August. And it's just not, it's just not true. Trump doesn't care. He just lies and he repeats it over and over again, continuing to be the guy in the glass house throwing stones. Trump, who is obese, is now targeting Illinois Governor J.B. pritzker over his weight of every newspaper.

[Donald Trump]

It's out of control. The mayor is incompetent and the governor is a big fat slob. He ought to invite us in, say please make Chicago safe. We're going to lose a great city if we don't do it.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Obese. Trump calls J.B. pritzker a big fat slob, continuing to lie about gas prices as well, saying we, you'd better be careful because any day now we're going to have two dollar gasoline in a long time.

[Donald Trump]

Egg prices are down 86% since March and gasoline will soon be hovering around two dollars a gallon.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Yeah. Soon, I guess we're two weeks from that as well now. Then it started to get really weird, as if this wasn't bad enough, Donald Trump talking about a woman who was burned. And that justifies deploying troops, I guess, to Chicago. And if I sound uncertain, it's because we often wonder, what the hell is this guy talking about?

[Donald Trump]

Is fine. And I want to thank the National Guard. I want to thank Pete Hegseth. The job you've done here is incredible. And I hear you having the same kind of success in Memphis, Tennessee, where you had an even worse situation. And Memphis crime is down 64% in three weeks. And by the time you have four or five weeks, you're going to have it down almost where there won't be crime. And we could do that in Chicago, by the way, if they would let us. If the mayor was a low IQ person. But he should understand this. This is a very serious thing. You saw all the crime that took place last night, the night before the woman with the burning. They burned the woman to be talking about that now. They burned this beautiful woman riding in a train. A man was arrested 72 times. 72 times. Think of that. And they let him out again.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

So Trump barely knows what he's talking about. He can't even hold it together for just a turkey pardon. And what is there? You know, sometimes when people start to get disconnected from reality, you look at what still connects them. And for Trump, it's a desire to be an authoritarian deep down in there. He doesn't know what's going on. He's confused. He's. He's disoriented. He can't even hold it together for a turkey pardon. But he knows he wants to send troops to Chicago. That he really, really knows. All right, and here is Trump in the Thanksgiving spirit. It is almost Thanksgiving after all. We'll be talking about our favorite Thanksgiving dishes on the bonus show today. Here is Trump confusedly pardoning the turkeys.

[Donald Trump]

Let's go and give Gobble Waddle. Waddles, by the way, is missing in action. But that's okay. We'll pretend Waddle is here, the gift that they've been waiting for. And I'll move over and I will just say very nicely, gobble your pardon. Come on, let's say it in front of Gobble. Thank you very much, everybody.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Isn't he so charismatic? So here goes Trump to pardon the turkeys. And. Oh, I guess that's Melania. Anyway, I won't subject you to this Entire thing. But they've got the turkey waddle there. He can't even get through a basic event without humiliating himself. Himself. But there is a really politically salient story here with Thanksgiving and turkey, and it is the degree to which this Thanksgiving meal story has blown up and Kevin Hassett is still going at it. I want to talk about that next. This is the face of a liar, ladies and gentlemen. This Thanksgiving meal cost story is really causing them a lot of problems. Let me give you the backstory on this. Walmart, or as Trump calls it, Walmart, put out something like 10 or 14 days ago an announcement that this year's Thanksgiving meal deal is cheaper than last year's. And the White House ran with it saying, look, Thanksgiving is cheaper. We looked at it, it's been fact checked. And the truth is that the reason that it's cheaper this year is they removed a bunch of items so it's a smaller meal. And they also replace some brand name products with cheaper store brand products. As I've said before, it's not that store brand products are bad, but they are cheaper. And that's a way to make things cheaper. You can, you know, if I could easily say, hey, children's medicine is way cheaper this year than last year. And I go to you and I show you, look last year when I bought name brand Benadryl, Tylenol and Advil for babies. Here's how much it cost. And this year it's cheaper. But then you look and you go, well, it's the CVS brand, Benadryl and it's the CVS brand. You know, ibuprofen and acetaminophen, you would rightly say, but David, you're comparing apples to oranges. You're looking at cheaper products. That's what they did. Kevin Hassett over the weekend tried to pull this on the Sunday shows. And we covered it and we debunked it. And he said, oh, Thanksgiving is cheaper than. So Kevin Hassett goes back on TV and he goes, oh, they think they caught me on this one. But they really didn't take a listen to what he has to say, which by the way, completely misses the point.

[Political Commentator]

Favorite moments on a Sunday show. For me, last week was one of the Sunday shows. You could look it up. I won't attack the poor fellow. That was the anchor. He criticized the fact that Walmart said that the Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper by, I think it was about $10 for a typical Thanksgiving dinner. And then he said, oh, yeah, but they substituted generic stuff as if like like having a generic something is a crime for ordinary folks. It shows how to touch. These people are.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

I get so silly just. It's not about being out of touch, Kevin. It's that it's objectively cheaper. Kevin Hassett is sort of pretending that the reason we're pointing out these are generic brands is because we are elitists of some kind and that, that it's, it's simply objectively cheaper. I will show you. Here is the Walmart website. As you can see this, this meal deal or whatever includes Great Value brown gravy mix. Great Value is the Walmart store brand that is 64 cents. The name brand gravy from McCormick costs about twice as much. So simply by putting in the cheaper store brand, you lower the price. It doesn't actually mean prices have come down. Another example, this includes the Great Value sweet corn. That's a dollar fifth. Those are 50 cents each, rather three of them for a dollar fifty. The brand name Corn from Del Monte is more than twice as expensive. It's A$25. So this is not about elitism or people don't deserve store brands or whatever. It's more expensive for the name brand products. They've removed items and swapped in cheaper products. This, this is a very risky game politically because Biden tried insisting it's just awesome, everything's awesome. There's no need to worry about the economy and people felt that there were economic calamities and, and that hurt Biden while he was the candidate and it ultimately hurt Kamala Harris. They are doing the same thing now. Just insist everything's cheaper, everything's great. People don't believe it and it's being reflected in the polls now. Meanwhile at Mar a Lago, they're going to have steak and lobster. It's going to be a beautiful surf and turf Thanksgiving. It'll still be crappy because the food there sucks, but it will be expensive. And Kevin Hassett is meanwhile saying people should be happy with their 64 cent gravy instead of the dollar gravy because they're poor anyway. And who cares what the elites say? I don't think this is landing very risky game. If you were shopping for a new mattress, I would recommend you start by looking at Helix Sleep, the mattress I've been sleeping on for years. The only one that I recommend because they custom tailor it to your needs. I took their sleep quiz. It took a minute or two. I said, oh, you know, I like to sleep on my stomach. I tend to feel hotter in the middle of the night rather than colder. I like medium firm and Helix just nailed it. Matched me with the perfect mattress. Most people don't even know where to start when you're looking for a mattress. And Helix just makes it easy. There is really no substitute for the mattress that's right for you. Your body will thank you. Delivery was fast, setup was easy. You do get 100 nights to try it out. They'll even take away your old mattress. Right now, Helix has a special offer only for my audience. Get 27% off everything on their site when you go to helix. Sleep.com/pacman the link is in the description. Question for you. Are gas prices an opinion? You know, in, in my book the Echo Machine, I have a chapter about what are facts? And this is not a question what are the facts? It's simply what are facts. And one of the things that I argue in that chapter is that increasingly we have a disagreement in this country not only about what the facts are, but what sort of a statement even counts as a statement of fact versus a matter of opinion. Now, I want to remind you that on the issue of gas prices, Trump has continually promised two dollar gas and regularly insists that gas prices have come way down since he has become president. Now, in some places, Americans are paying over $3 a gallon. In some places it's over $4 a gallon. Basically, gas prices are flat since Trump came into office. And there are a lot of people that are angry. We remember that Trump said the tariffs would bring prices down and energy would come down, drilling would make everything cheaper and gas would be cheaper. None of that happened. So what does Fox News do? They try gas price relativism. Fox News is now framing Trump's lies about gas prices as conflicting views. People have conflicting views about gas prices. Take a listen to this.

[Fox News Reporter]

Yeah, always better to me to drive than to fly, Sandra. But you know, gas prices. Well, what about that one behind me? Yeah, that's the most expensive gas in the state of Pennsylvania. $4.09. The average gallon, a regular about a dollar more than the national average. And you know, people have conflicting views about gas price.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Now, look, while he says people have conflicting views, it says on the screen that right now gas prices are 305. And last month they were 305 and last year they were 305. It's on the screen as the administration.

[Fox News Reporter]

Says it's lower than it was. Others say it's higher with. The reality is, well, you see it right there. It's pretty much the same as it was last month. Last year, $3.05. That despite the change in energy production and energy prices, 13.7 million barrels a day pumped the last month. We've got data and that not only is a record in the US but an all time record.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

And yeah, Fox is suggesting gas prices are like a movie review. You know, a lot of people like the storyline. Others found it a little too on the nose. There were people who found the acting credible and believable while others did not feel that way and thought that the actors were overacting. You know, some people believe gas is cheap, some people believe gas is expensive. Now they do include in there that gas prices are essentially flat. They put the price up on the screen. 305. The problem is Trump promised much lower prices. We really need to get beyond the. Gas prices are an opinion sort of thing. Gas prices are flat. Trump hasn't brought them down. But the truth of course is that he promised to bring them down. This isn't a vibe, right? A gallon of gas doesn't cost one what you feel it costs when you wake up in the morning. Workers and families have to pay the number on the sign. And Fox is sort of suggesting that there are conflicting views, as if it's an opinion. If Trump says gas is cheap, well, then I guess gas is cheap. Even if every American sees that that's not the case. Now here is the gas price chart and you see that within a very narrow band of about 15, not even about 10 cents, gas has basically been at 305 a gallon. When Trump took over it, it was 305. It spiked all the way up to 327 and then came back down to 310, back up to 320, back down to 310, back down to about $3 to 98. Even at 1 point it hit and then it's back up to 305. It's a few cents plus or minus, but it is flat. The new rule in Trump's America, I guess is you don't really have to fix the problem. You just have to tell people that the problem is an illusion and hope that they stop complaining. Didn't work for the Biden administration. Fox used to try to spin numbers. Now they just kind of gaslight, they put the number up but then they go. There's a lot of different opinions about what's going on with gas prices. And it's happening, I believe, because Fox News knows something that Trump doesn't want to admit. People do vote based on what they are actually paying, what they're paying at the pump what they're paying at the grocery store. And right now they are paying the same or more relative to Trump's promise of bringing prices down. So Trump says it's great. Fox says there's different opinions about the cost of gas. What are voters going to do in 11 months? I've said it before and I think it bears repeating. None of this is about reality. This is about MAGA as a movement telling people, believe what we say and not what we see. With your own eyes. Trump even said it in his first term. Don't believe what you are hearing and seeing. Believe what I tell you. So I want to hear from you. Does anybody out there have two dollar and something gasoline? But also what are you actually paying? Is it 350? Is it 450? I want to hear from you. Leave a comment. Make sure to like the video as well. A Fox News host is sounding the alarm and good for her. Laura Ingraham is panicking and she's acknowledging Republicans are facing serious destruction in the 2026 midterms. Hilariously, Laura Ingraham had Katie Miller on her show. This is the wife of the deranged, inherently disgusting Stephen Miller. She has a podcast now, Katie Miller does. Why anybody wants commentary from Katie Miller, I don't know. But listen, here's Laura Ingraham saying we could have a real problem for Republicans coming up here. Okay, Katie, one thing that we we should also see, Mark is right. The midterms right now look ugly unless.

[Political Commentator]

The Republicans really get serious.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Yeah, history gives us a pretty grim baseline for any party that holds the presidency going into a midterm, especially when it is a change to the party in the White House and especially when presidential approval is this low. So let me walk you kind of through it. The basic rule with midterms is that the president's party almost always loses ground. Since World War II, dozens of midterms, the typical result is a net loss of 25, 26 House seats and about four Senate seats. That's the average. Okay. The reason it's considered normal is because midterms for a long time have served as a kind of referendum on the president and their party. So voter turnout is usually lower, excitement is usually lower. In midterms, the electorate becomes more likely to punish the missteps of the party that holds the White House over anything else. The size of the collapse, meaning how many seats flip, depends on how popular the president is. When voters turn out for presidents with an approval rating under 50, remember, Trump's at 37 for presidents with an approval rating under 50. Historically, the party in power loses 37 seats in the House. When presidents enter midterms with approval over 50, they tend to lose only 14 seats in the House. So let me give you some real examples. Two of the only three modern midterms where the President's party gained House seats, the President had really Strong approval in 1998 under Bill Clinton, he had 66% approval. Democrats gained seats in 2002 under George W. Bush. In the aftermath of 9 11, which had this kind of rallying effect for Americans. Bush had a 60, 63% approval. Republicans gained seats in 2002, but the gains were really small. Democrats only got five seats in 98. Republicans only got six seats in 2022. So the downside risk is massive. Now we zoom out. In 17 of 19 midterms since World War II, the president's party loses seats in the House. It's structural. Voters show up differently, the President's name isn't on the ballot. And when you see prices going up, instability, policy backfires, like on health care, the people in charge of the White House are the ones that lose. Now plug into that, what we know right now. Historically, low approval rating for Donald Trump, controversial policies that a lot of people don't like, economic pain, growing public frustration. And so Laura Ingraham looks at this and she goes, wait a second. We are sliding towards total destruction in 2026 unless something changes. And she may be right. If Republicans don't dramatically reverse course or figure something out, there are some models that have them losing 50 seats. That sounds high to me. But they could certainly lose 25, 35 or 40. All of that would take away their majority. And that ends Donald Trump's presidential term with regard to anything other than what he can do by executive orders. So that's the context behind Laura Ingraham's panic. Now, here's just one bonus clip in case some of you really do want to hear from Katie Miller. Here is Katie Miller saying, Trump has accomplished everything he promised. And Laura Ingraham looks a little bit skeptical here. I've said this again, and I'll say.

[David Pakman]

It one more time, is President Trump has accomplished every single one of our policy platforms from the RNC convention.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

He did. When has it ever happened?

[David Pakman]

That's why Democrats are floundering.

[David Pakman (Main Host)]

Yeah. And Laura Ingraham is looking at her like, yeah, didn't you just hear me say that Republicans might get brutalized next November? So listen, buyer beware, be careful of what? Don't count your chicken. I don't even know what the right metaphor or aphorism here is, but the confidence that Katie Miller is espousing there seems very much not to comport with the facts. Now on the bonus show today, we are going to look at a Tennessee special election that is getting very interesting. National parks are now raising fees for foreign tourists. Is this a good idea? And Campbell Soup's executive, an executive from Campbell Soup says its products are for poor people. What? All of that and more. Plus our favorite Thanksgiving dishes on today's bonus show. Hope you have a great Thanksgiving if you are celebrating, if you're in the United States. For our foreign audience, just remember we are up against a holiday here in the United States. So no show tomorrow. Talk to you soon.

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[David Pakman]

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