David Pakman (7:59)
And notice, by the way, notice that after taking the long gun from the shooter, Ahmed could have, could have killed the shooter and did not and he is now in custody. Now, this gentleman happens to be Muslim. And at a time of such anti Semitism, the significance of this act is not lost on me. What an incredible piece of video. Another glimmer. Despite this being a disgusting and terrible, terrible tragedy, these incidents are really rare in Australia. And it's a reminder that, that you actually can achieve things through legislation that relates to gun safety. If you look at the list of such events in Australia, they are so uncommon that the last mass violence event in Australia was in 2024. It was a stabbing where no one was killed. Before that, it was 2018, a stabbing where there was one killed and two injured. Before that was 2017. One killed, three injured. All tragedies. But compare this to the United States yesterday we had Three mass shootings in the United States yesterday, Sunday. On Saturday, there was just one, which is rare in this country, that there's only one mass shooting. It was the Brown University event that I already talked about. But this month, we have had 12 mass shootings in the United States. So the silver lining is, as humans, as Homo sapiens, gun safety laws don't prevent everything, but Australia is proof that they do reduce it dramatically. Another story of note over the weekend, early this morning, late last night, Rob Reiner, the actor, director, producer, political activist, and his wife Michelle were found dead in their home in Los Angeles. Now, the details are still sparse. Both found dead from apparent stab wounds. It is being investigated as a homicide. A lot of incorrect things put out that I won't repeat because we don't yet know all of the details. Regardless, you might say, well, why does that get attention and not someone killed in random gun violence elsewhere? That's how our media ecosystem works. But regardless, the point here is just a reminder of the pointless, senseless violence. You know, we have all of these things that we can't stop. Death from natural disasters, death from disease that we haven't yet conquered. All of these causes of death, given how fragile life is, these pointless, optional acts of violence are just a reminder of the sickness that we have in society. So this was a rough weekend. This was a very, very rough weekend, touching so many different elements of the worst of humanity with some glimmers there that remind us that there are still good people out there. And really, it's. It's most of the people. We'll keep covering all of these stories as more information is available. I want to talk about the new dump. This story is not about Trump, so I might just. That introduction might have confused people. I want to talk to people about the massive dump of Epstein photos that were released few days ago. Because this is one of those moments where how something is handled matters almost as much as the underlying facts. Now, my core point that I want to make to you here is very simple. We've got to be very careful with these images, and I encourage others to be careful with the images. In terms of what we deduce and infer from the images, there is no doubt that Jeffrey Epstein was a monster. There is no doubt that accountability matters. And we need to continue going through all of the pictures that are released and assessing who may have been additional perpetrators here. But the important message that I have for you is that sloppy or misleading material ends up giving the right wing, the MAGA people, the Trump people, exactly what they want. A lot of the reaction online has treated every new image that was released Friday as a smoking gun. And some of these images are not smoking guns. Let me explain. There was this condom picture that's been circulating everywhere and you've probably seen people explaining, oh, it was designed by Epstein for Trump or it was approved. They displayed it at Epstein's estate. It's custom made for Trump by Jeffrey Epstein. It's not what it is. Ok? The photo is from a novelty store in New York, Fish's Eddie. You can still buy the exact same thing. The price tags match. The branding is visible in the image itself. This is a gag item. It's meant to mock Trump. It's not evidence of anything tied to Jeffrey Epstein. That is an important distinction. Okay? When something like this gets amplified without basic verification, the right no longer has to argue nuance. They can nuance. They can go, it's fake, it's fake, no big deal. This is all fake. This, this has nothing to do with Trump and Epstein. There are other examples. There's one image being shared. It's a cropped Getty photo from a public event. Now, Epstein isn't even in this picture. The cropped out figure is the man who is now King Charles. Bill Gates was at a public event. This image, which was circulated as evidence of wrongdoing, it's a public photograph. That's all it is. It was in with the so called Epstein files, but it is simply a public photograph. There is another image which shows Donald Trump with several women whose faces are redacted and people immediately jump to, here's the picture of Trump with underage girls at the Epstein estate. But this photo appears to be from the Hawaiian Tropic contest. Now, could these women later have been victims? Possibly. This picture doesn't establish that. Pretending that this picture establishes wrongdoing invites dismissal of all of it. This is uncomfortable, ok? But it is necessary to understand this. And among the uncomfortable but necessary points, as I have said for a very long time, it is entirely possible that there are no photos of Trump committing illegal acts. Not because Epstein wasn't running a criminal operation, not because we don't have serious questions about Trump's association with Epstein. We do. But it's possible that if Trump did something illegal, if that. It's not evidenced in any photograph. That is not a defense of Trump. It's a recognition of how evidence works. We have plenty of documented material that ties Trump socially and politically to Jeffrey Epstein. Flights, quotes, relationships, video of them, all of that stuff is real. But Assuming that there must be a hidden trove of incriminating photos and. And then promoting weak or unrelated images, it makes it too easy for the defenders of Trump to wave it all away. And once they do that, they won't just dismiss one bad photo or one photo that doesn't show what it purports to show. They will dismiss the entire story. And that is the danger here. If the material being released is novelty store items, photos from public events, or images that only through heavy, unsubstantiated speculation can you make any kind of disturbing allegation, all of a sudden, the right no longer needs to engage with this stuff. Seriously. They can laugh it off and say it's overblown. They put a picture up of a novel novelty store item and tried to tie it to Epstein and Trump. If something truly explosive does exist, this approach will undermine it. Because real bombshells don't need imagination. You don't have to speculate with a real bombshell. You. You don't need a Twitter thread explaining why this might be a bombshell. The real bombshells really speak for themselves. Now, the earlier email releases landed because they were concrete. You didn't have to squint or connect the dots and look for things that weren't there. Every easily debunked image is going to make it harder for the real evidence to come through. And that is why I believe caution matters. We don't want to protect Trump, we don't want to help Trump. But every photo that we make an allegation about that turns out to be untrue gives his allies the ability to pull out the fake news nothing burger script. And so we've got to scrutinize Epstein. We need to follow the real evidence. We need to demand accountability. But we must verify first, be honest about what an image is. Be honest about what the image does and doesn't prove. Otherwise, we aren't going to be forcing accountability. We. We are going to hand them a reason to say this is crap and it's time to walk away. Now, one other element to this. Some of you wrote to me sympathetic to the view I just espoused, which is I think there are people making claims about some of these pictures that go way beyond what can be proven. And the question that some of you raised in the email over the weekend is why would these images be released right now if these images are not particularly incriminating in reality? And there are a lot of possible answers to that. One possible answer is that they're running out of incriminating stuff and the well is starting to run dry. That is. That's a possibility. Another possible explanation is they released a huge amount of pictures and they're doing it in waves with no regard to how any particular picture can be used or politicized or whatever that's about. We don't have the answer and it's conceivable that this is part of some broader strategy from Oversight Democrats, or it's possible that it's not. We just don't know the answer to that. But we have to make sure that we don't go beyond what the evidence tells us. And some of the stuff that was released is merely public images, not indicative of any wrongdoing whatsoever. Let me know what you think. Leave a comment Let me know what you think about the strategy of how these are being released. A lot of people hit this point in December and realize I still need to find a thoughtful, genuine gift for someone on my list. And quickly if that is you, Aura Frames can really help you out Our sponsor, Aura, makes premium digital frames that beautifully display photos and videos. I've been using one myself for years. I've given Aura Frames to my mom, I've given them to my dad. So many people. I preloaded them with baby photos and they love it because they turn it on the first time and the pictures are there. Aura makes it really easy not only with the preloading of photos, but you can keep adding them throughout the year with the app. There is plenty of time to get an Aura Frame shipped before Christmas and you'll get $35 off their best selling Carver Mat frames. When you go to aura frames.com and use the code Pacman at checkout, the link is in the description. This is an audience supported independent media program. Welcome to all of the new folks who found us over the weekend. Some thanks to a couple of viral videos we had on Tik Tok and Instagram, others thanks to Cory Booker, the Senator posting one of our clips to his Instagram. Everybody new is more than welcome here. I also want to say thank you to our two newest members, Kenneth Higgins and Doug Brown who signed up@join pacman.com really appreciate you. You can join the ranks of membership@join pacman.com and remember that you can keep up with us for free simply by subscribing to my substack. You can find it at substack.david pakman.com something huge just happened at the Federal Reserve. It undercuts one of Donald Trump's biggest pressure points and the Fed has brilliantly. Trump proofed itself for the inevitable departure of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Let me explain what happened and why it's so brilliant. It was done quietly, it was done unanimously, and it happened way earlier than anybody expected. In the last few days, the Federal Reserve reappointed 11 of its 12 regional bank presidents all at once. All right, so who cares? Why? Why does that matter? Well, they did it months before their terms were set to expire. Usually that's not the way it works. Normally, these reappointments will happen right near the deadline. It's routine. It's boring. Nobody pays attention. This time, the Fed rushed it. They used a completely different timeline. Why does this matter? Trump is furious at the Fed. In particular, he's furious with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell because Trump wants interest rates cut, cut, cut, faster and faster. Trump's been attacking Jerome Powell for years now. Trump's allies have been floating ways to reshape the Fed from the inside. This includes new requirements that would give Donald Trump even more control over the Federal Reserve, even though the Federal Reserve is not supposed to be under political control. As an example, Trump's treasury secretary floated a new rule saying Fed presidents should have to live in their districts for three years. Sounds like a mere technicality, but it's a way to kick a bunch of people out and replace them with the people you want. Trump's top economic adviser, the guy expected to replace Powell, backed the idea. So markets were starting to worry Trump is really going to take over the Fed and make it a political tool. What happens if Trump gets rid of Powell? What happens if Trump stacks the Fed with loyalists? Or what happens to Fed independents? That is the context. So now we get to the key part of this move. Those regional Fed presidents sit on the committee that sets interest rates. And one of the things I've told you, and I hope others have been telling you as well, is that just replacing Powell alone won't give Trump the control that he wants. Because when the Fed meets to decide, what are we doing with rates? Are they going up, down, or staying the same? All of those regional Fed presidents get a vote. And in recent meetings, they, meaning these other Fed presidents, have been more resistant to rate cuts than than the Trump appointed governors. In other words, they are a problem for Trump even if he gets rid of Jerome Powell. So the Fed board stepped in and said, not so fast. And by reappointing these folks earlier than normal, the Fed has locked them in for another five years. Now, Trump can yell, Trump can threaten, Trump can get rid of Jerome Powell. But. But if the courts let him, by the way. But it won't matter nearly as much because now the structure underneath the Fed chairman has gotten way stronger. And one Fed official said this takes a huge risk off the table going into 2026. The good news about this is it portends greater economic stability next year. The bad news about this is if you want Trump to do whatever he wants in an authoritarian style, it's going to be harder for him to do it. So this is great if you like the Fed's independence, this is great if you like the Fed not bowing to pressure from the president. But if you want Trump to have all the power, you're not going to like this. Now, the translation here is that Wall street understands what just happened and they like it because you look at bond yields, they went up. And economists are realizing Trump has just been, or the Fed has been Trump proofed. A better way to say it. Now, Trump can still do damage. The Fed is still not invincible. It definitely doesn't mean Trump won't keep attacking Powell. But it does mean that if Trump gets rid of Powell, the Fed has ensured Trump doesn't end up with full control. And this is how institutions defend themselves, quietly, procedurally, before the fire even starts. It's being done professionally, it's being done with tact, and it may be one of the most effective moves we have seen against Donald Trump in months. It's not to get headlines. It's not hot in the way that Trump likes to say, but it is meaningful. Now, let me remind you, why is Trump obsessed with rate cuts to begin with? It's not about careful monetary policy. Rate cuts pump the stock market. Stock market highs make headlines. Headlines. Let Trump say, look at how everything is booming, at least the stock market in my economy. Trump wants the sugar high. Rate cuts give the stock market a sugar high. And he wants it to happen on his timeline. The Fed's job is to balance many different factors and decide where should rates be. So this move really hits Trump where it hurts, which is his ability to spin narrative. And it is a truly brilliant move. I mean, just an excellent, excellent move from the Fed. And the funniest part about it is all of these people angry that the Fed is trying to do this, that or the other thing with these early reappointments, the economy will probably be better because of this next year. The stock market will probably perform at least with more stability next year because of this move. But they're angry because they want their traffic cone colored president to Control everything, decide everything, and have everything be at his pleasure. Really good move by the Fed. We have something real happening on the right right now, and you can see it in some new numbers that are coming out. There is a new NBC News poll, and it does show that Trump is still Underwater overall with 42% approving and 58% disapproving. These are terrible numbers for Donald Trump. But there is a more important story. Sometimes you look at the paint job of the car and you go, looks OK or doesn't look so good, but you've got to look under the hood to see what's really going on. Strong support for Trump within the Republican Party isn't collapsing, but it is slipping. And that slippage is going to matter going into 2026. And even more telling, fewer Republicans than in a long time are now identifying as maga. I was thinking back as I was reading this poll to Marjorie Taylor Greene's 60 Minutes interview last Sunday, where she was asked by Leslie Stahl, are you maga? And she said, I'm America First. And we sort of wondered aloud, is that a distinction without a difference? It's just Marjorie Taylor Greene trying to separate from Trump, but not necessarily a lot of the ideas. Ok. One of the interesting things is that a lot of Republicans are saying, I am not maga. Back in April, a majority of Republicans said they identify with the MAGA movement. Republicans are now split 50, 50. Half of Republicans do not identify with the MAGA movement. Now, Trump's power, as is the case with a lot of authoritarians, comes from a hardcore base of supporters so intense and feverish and fervent in their support for Trump that they essentially scare the rest of the Republican Party into at least going along with what Donald Trump is doing. That grip, which has kept most of the Republican Party in line behind Donald Trump, is starting to weaken. You can see it in behavior as much as you can see it in polling. The big example is the one I mentioned, Marjorie Taylor Greene. She broke with Trump, publicly dropped the MAGA label, leaving Congress early. Trump's calling her Marjorie Trader Brown. It's all gone wrong. When even Marjorie Taylor Greene decides the MAGA label is a brand liability, something has shifted. The main reason this is happening is not woke propaganda against Donald Trump or it is the reality of the economy. And it's exactly what I've been saying and I've been saying to to the MAGA people, come join us. Simply acknowledge that he's not doing what he promised and come join us. Trump promised to lower costs, but Inflation is still more than zero, meaning costs are still going up. Groceries remain expensive. Many Americans are cutting back just to afford basics. Many Americans are choosing not to go to the doctor or not to fill prescriptions because they can't afford them. 40% of Americans would have to borrow if they were hit today with an unexpected $400 expense. And so even Trump voters are now more likely to say countries on the wrong track compared to earlier this year. More of them say their personal finances are worse today than they were a year ago. That includes older voters. That includes lower income voters. It includes voters with less formal education. These are groups that Trump and the Republican Party cannot afford to lose if they are going to retain control of the House, at least in the 2026 midterm election. And the part that should really worry them is that when voters were asked, who do you trust more on cost of living, they now say Democrats. That holds true if you ask independent voters, if you ask young voters, if you ask Latino voters, women voters, and overwhelmingly if you ask black voters. So this is not an overnight MAGA collapse. It's not a sudden rebellion against Trump. It's happening slowly and arguably because it's happening slowly. It is not happening for reasons that the people turning on Trump don't understand. It's happening because they do understand what's going on. You see the disengagement. You see the quiet rebranding. I'm a conservative. At the end of the day, I'm not one of these MAGA people. I'm a Republican and I'm a conservative in the style of fill in the blanks. Right? Backing away more slowly than we've seen before. And this is how political movements actually die. It's less frequently an overnight abandonment. It's the realization over time that they don't really have anything to offer you. And what we now have to see is what can this be snowballed into as 2026 approaches? Because Republican electeds are realizing we don't want to be caught holding the back and the position they will be in. And we're almost at the end of the year, and I think this is going to start quickly in January. Republican elected, they're going to have to make a call. Do I need to ally myself with Trump to get reelected in November, or do I need to distance myself from Trump? We both want to weigh what's more likely to get him elected, but what's also more likely to make Trump the ultimate lame duck president who can achieve nothing in the last two years of his political life. Holiday hosting can be stressful. Don't I know it. 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Get $30 off your first box plus free croissants for life at wildgrain.com/pacman the link is in the description. Something really interesting and important slipped out this weekend. You know, we've been wondering, why is it that Trump only seems to repeat what he perceives to be positive data about the economy? Is he just lying? Is he confused? Well, one of the things that has now surfaced is, is that Donald Trump is actually only given little bits and pieces of economic data that in a complete vacuum, abstracted from the totality of what's going on in this economy, make things seem not that bad. I'm going to give you an example of this. One of Donald Trump's top economic advisers, Kevin Hassett, was on Face the Nation and he was asked a very simple question, which is Trump keeps saying prices are down. It's not true. What data is he looking at? Now you remember and anybody who can read numbers understands that inflation has not dropped below zero since Trump took over. By definition, that means prices have continued to go up. They've bounced between 2 and a half and 3% annual inflation since June of 23 under Biden. Inflation has remained roughly there under Donald Trump, which means prices keep going up relatively slowly but continuing to go up. So Hassett explains, Trump is basically just looking at the good stuff. And if you read between the lines and listen to what has it says, here he is explaining Trump is focusing in really closely on, well, groceries are up Just, you know, Arabica coffee beans from the this part of Colombia are down. That's an example. It's not literally what he says, but Trump gets cherry picked, little bits and pieces that can be used to their advantage. Take a listen.
