3/14/25: Economic panic as Republicans are out of ideas

Summary

Summary of "The David Pakman Show" Episode on March 14, 2025: "Economic Panic as Republicans Are Out of Ideas"

Hosted by David Pakman, this episode delves into the growing economic anxieties among Americans, exacerbated by Republican policies and a noticeable decline in consumer confidence. Through insightful analysis and impactful interviews, Pakman explores the multifaceted aspects of the current economic climate.

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1. Growing Economic Panic Among Americans

The episode opens with Pakman addressing the increasing sense of economic unease permeating across all income levels in the United States. He clarifies that while the nation is not in a recession—citing the lack of definitive GDP figures for Q4 and Q1—it is witnessing a significant decline in consumer confidence and spending.

David Pakman [00:07]: "Panic is growing amongst the average American, both rich and poor... consumer spending has collapsed across all income levels."

2. Decline in Consumer Spending

Pakman outlines the severe drop in consumer expenditure, noting that even luxury goods are not immune. Major retailers like Walmart, Costco, and Target have reported tightened spending, with luxury spending down nearly 10% in February alone. This widespread reduction in spending diminishes demand-side stimulus, leading to job insecurity and further economic strain.

David Pakman [02:30]: "Luxury spending... almost 10% in February alone. And again, this is affecting people across income ranges."

3. Impact of Republican Policies and Tariffs

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the aggressive tariff policies implemented by the Republican leadership, particularly under Donald Trump’s administration. Pakman argues that these tariffs are self-inflicted wounds that disrupt economic stability by increasing costs for consumers and creating uncertainty for businesses.

David Pakman [06:00]: "Trump has now been asked multiple times, are you ruling out a recession? And he doesn't rule it out... It's something I like to predict."

4. Public Response and Caller Concerns

The episode features emotional callers voicing their fears about the economy, including concerns over Social Security, Medicare, and the rising cost of living. One caller expresses anxiety over potential cuts to essential services and the negative impact on median-income Americans.

Caller 1 [06:46]: "For Social Security and Medicare as key targets, he said there will be steep reductions... people who had a median income won't be able to help the people who have no food to eat."

Pakman empathizes with these concerns, highlighting real-life examples of job losses and financial instability resulting from policy shifts.

David Pakman [07:12]: "I know people whose jobs disappeared because of various funding cuts... everyone is pulling back."

5. Republicans’ Shift on Tariffs: Mitch McConnell's Stance

A pivotal moment in the episode is the discussion of Republican Senator Mitch McConnell's unexpected opposition to Trump’s tariff policies. Despite his long-standing support for Trump, McConnell now openly criticizes the economic strategies, signaling a potential shift within the Republican Party.

David Pakman [12:14]: "Mitch McConnell has never really liked Donald Trump for honest... he is openly rejecting Donald Trump's economic strategy."

Pakman underscores the significance of this change, suggesting that other Republicans might follow suit, though skepticism remains about the party's overall cohesion.

6. Economic Disparities Between Red and Blue States

Pakman elaborates on how Trump’s tariffs disproportionately affect red states, which often rely on single or limited industries. In contrast, blue states benefit from more diversified economies, providing a buffer against such economic shocks.

David Pakman [20:00]: "Red states will feel the pain more directly... blue states have more diversified economies... If one sector takes a hit, there are other industries to absorb the impact."

This analysis highlights the structural vulnerabilities in red state economies, exacerbated by federal tariff policies, leading to heightened economic distress in these regions.

7. The MAGA Movement’s Resistance to Facts

Addressing the broader implications, Pakman discusses the MAGA movement's pervasive denial of factual realities, such as climate change and immigration statistics. He argues that this denial stems from an unwillingness to confront the moral and economic consequences of their policies.

David Pakman [25:45]: "If you accept that climate change is real and humans have an impact, confronting the need to act becomes immoral for MAGA... they prefer to pretend that there's nothing to deal with."

Pakman points out that acknowledging these facts would undermine the foundational justifications for many Republican policies, leading to a rigid refusal to engage in constructive policy debates.

8. Conclusion: The Path Forward Amid Economic Instability

In his concluding remarks, Pakman emphasizes the precarious state of the economy, attributing much of the instability to erratic and self-serving policies. He calls for a recognition of the interconnectedness of economic actions and their widespread impacts, urging listeners to critically evaluate the motivations behind political strategies.

David Pakman [31:58]: "What are the facts? The facts might be... Let's call out the truth... reality is the biggest threat to MAGA's entire existence."

Pakman reiterates the importance of grounded, fact-based discourse in overcoming the current economic challenges, urging for bipartisan efforts to restore economic stability and consumer confidence.

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Key Takeaways:

• Consumer Spending Decline: Significant reductions across all income levels signal diminishing demand-side economic stimulus.

• Impact of Tariffs: Republican-imposed tariffs are increasing consumer costs and creating business uncertainty, particularly harming red state economies reliant on single industries.

• Shift Within the Republican Party: Senator Mitch McConnell’s opposition to Trump’s tariff policies may indicate a broader reevaluation within the party.

• MAGA Movement’s Denial: Persistent rejection of factual realities prevents meaningful policy discussions and perpetuates economic instability.

• Economic Vulnerability of Red States: Lack of economic diversification makes red states more susceptible to the adverse effects of federal policies.

Notable Quotes:

• David Pakman [00:07]: "Panic is growing amongst the average American, both rich and poor... consumer spending has collapsed across all income levels."

• Caller 1 [06:46]: "For Social Security and Medicare as key targets, he said there will be steep reductions... people who had a median income won't be able to help the people who have no food to eat."

• David Pakman [12:14]: "Mitch McConnell has never really liked Donald Trump for honest... he is openly rejecting Donald Trump's economic strategy."

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This episode of The David Pakman Show provides a comprehensive analysis of the current economic turmoil, dissecting the roles of consumer behavior, policy decisions, and partisan dynamics. Through empathetic engagement with callers and critical examination of political strategies, Pakman underscores the urgent need for informed and collaborative approaches to navigate the nation's financial challenges.

Transcript

[David Pakman]

Panic is growing amongst the average American, both rich and poor. Interestingly enough, about the economy. Different situations, different levels of risk, of course. But if you are in a situation where you either feel like your wallet is getting thinner or, or that it's going to, or you're worried and you're starting to adjust spending habits, you are very much not alone. This is what is happening in the economy of the United States today. We are not in a recession. Recessions have specific definitions. We have not. We're not even close to reaching that yet because it requires GDP numbers and we don't even have GDP numbers from Q4 yet. Or do we? We certainly. We're not going to have Q1 numbers. No. I think Q4 GDP comes out soon. Not going to have Q1 numbers for some time. So we are not in a recession. But there is a decline in consumer confidence. Consumer spending has collapsed across all income levels. And Donald Trump is not even denying that his policies might tank the economy. He says it'll be for the greater good. His advisers say it will be only a transition. Peter Navarro said it's sometimes the pain you have to endure to go from failing Biden nomics to successful Trump nomics or Trump onomics or whatever. So let's look at what we know, what's true and what is sort of like a maybe it is true that Americans are cutting back on everything. Americans are being more careful on groceries, gas and fast food. Wealthier individuals are being careful with luxury goods because people either don't have the money or are worried that they soon will not. We saw consumer spending drop by the largest single month margin between January and February. Big box retailers, Walmart, Costco, Target have seen customers tighten spending, average ticket values and different metrics that they track. Fast food sales are down, much to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. S chagrin. Luxury spending also down almost 10% in February alone. And it's not about, boo hoo, people can't get their Rolex watches. It's that 10% is a significant chunk to see a decline in a single month. And again, this is affecting people across income ranges. Everybody's pulling back. And it's not about, oh, we feel bad for the people who might only be able to afford one yacht instead of two. No, it's simply when spending goes down at the broadest economic level, you lose demand side stimulus. The people who work at the companies at which less money is being spent now have jobs that they themselves have to worry about. And it does trickle down. You know, the tax cuts for the rich don't seem to trickle down. When spending declines that does trickle down, we then look at tariffs. Trump's trade war is back in full force. Businesses are warning things are going to start costing more. We are seeing some early indicators of stalling wages. Low income workers had that temporary boost after Covid. But earnings have now fallen behind the rich again in terms of change to wages. Savings is starting to dry up. Bank balances are shrinking. Debt is climbing to pre pandemic levels and beyond. And as we've talked about, we see, we already talked about Delta already seeing JetBlue and American Airlines seeing fewer people booking flights in a forward looking manner, which means people expect at some point in the future to be in a tougher economic situation. And then of course, the big one. Trump has now been asked multiple times, are you ruling out a recession? And he doesn't rule it out. He says, I don't know that. It's something I like to predict, even though he did when Biden was running. You're going to have a recession using different words, kind of like figuring out semantic arguments. And then he's out there bragging about the low egg prices. Now I have, you all know me, okay, egg futures are down and that is great to see. It is objectively a good thing because it was becoming a real problem in terms of what it suggested about broader grocery prices and inflation. But consumers aren't just being cautious consumers because of egg prices. Consumers are worried they are going to run out of money. So when Donald Trump tells you we're going to win on everything, eventually you might just need to suffer a little bit, but it'll be patriotic and it's going to be really great. Who really is winning? It is not American consumers. We already are seeing, if you put the picture together, increased debt, fewer flight bookings, which few flight bookings, because people tend to book months in advance. Some people book a trip a year almost in advance. I think you can't book flights more than 330 days in advance, but people sometimes will book 10 months in advance. Some people will book two days before on average. I think it's like between two to three months early that people book flights. When you stop booking flights, which on average are for two to three months from now, it is a sort of futures market in that it is people acting today based on what they expect there to be in the future. When Trump announces a tariff and the stock market goes down, it's not because the tariff had that effect today. It's because it's a futures market about what the tariffs are expected to do. And similarly, when people say I am not going to take the trip three months, months from now that I wanted to take, it is a futures market of the sort that people are saying, based on where I think I will be economically in three months, I'm not going to book the trip right now. So the winners are the people that always are the winners. It's the billionaire robber baron types who get to come in and buy assets cheaply, sometimes privatize stuff, get in early, get in low, and then benefit if and when things ultimately do recover. And we don't know if that will be because of a 180 that Trump does on tariffs or whatever the case may be. But the numbers aren't good and there are people calling in tears about it. That's what I want to talk about next. A caller called in to C Span crying over what is happening to the economy. We have a couple of callers we're going to listen to. Here is one who I Her fear is palpable. Listen to this.

[Caller 1]

For Social Security and Medicare as key targets, he said there will be steep reductions. Elon Musk said Social Security was upon scheme. I'm so scared for. I mean, once these things are gone, you're not going to be able to help because he's also ruining the stock market. So people who had a median income won't be able to help the people who have no food to eat. So please pay attention.

[David Pakman]

All right? This is emblematic of what a lot of people are feeling. I know people whose jobs disappeared because of various funding cuts to US Aid. I know people in government roles who have been politely offered and then sort of encouraged to take one of these layoff, severance type packages. I know people who are saying, I don't really know how we afford daycare in September if I don't find a way to replace my new job and replace it now. This is what is happening out there. And it's important to remember when Trump and whoever else says there's a greater good here, that the greater good may be there or may not be at the end of the rainbow. It's typically only there for the wealthiest. And this is why, as I've said before, at scale, if everybody who's sane leaves Mississippi, Mississippi just gets more insane. At the same time, who am I living in a blue state to say to a Mississippian who's looking around saying, we have a disastrous economy, we have disastrous education, and what Trump is doing is only hurting us more? Who am I to say no, you've got to stay and fight. So Mississippi will be better. Go to Connecticut. Right. I mean, go to Maryland, go to Massachusetts. Who am I to say? And so this is like the conflict between the social good and the need to do what's best for you and for your family. And you could hear the fear in that caller's voice. Here's another caller explaining how the tariffs are starting to impact parts prices already.

[Caller 2]

Just like in 30 days. I mean, you know, domestically, he's tanking the economy singly handed with the tariffs. And I just, I just got a new heater today. I'm already affected by the tariffs.

[Caller 3]

How is that, Richard?

[Caller 2]

The parts are, they say, up 8 to 10% already, just in parts for the heater. So I ended up getting a new heater.

[Caller 3]

But the company told you that, the company that you bought it from.

[Caller 2]

Right, right.

[Caller 3]

And they passed on that 8 to 10% to you, so you paid an extra.

[David Pakman]

Okay, that's how it works.

[Caller 2]

Yeah. And that's, this is for every kind of part from outside the country. And no matter what it is, I mean, that includes everything that comes to the United States to these tariffs that is imposed.

[David Pakman]

That is how tariffs work. That is how tariffs work. If you have a product that you sell for $1,000 and all of a sudden your costs go up by 10%, so it costs you 10% more to make that product, to try to keep your same profit margin, which of course you need to keep the lights on, pay employees, etc. You will now pass along the increased cost to the consumer. That's the way that this works. And of course, you might be saying, well, you can't do that indefinitely. At some point it becomes unsustainable. And the answer is, that's exactly right. At some point, something has to break. Either that is no longer a product that's financially viable for you to sell, or people can no longer continue affording it. That is the way it works. And so it's very interesting to listen to these C SPAN calls because they really break down at an individual level, the nuts and bolts of what's going on in the economy now. Not exactly a profile in courage. Some Republicans are speaking out against the tariffs, but it really is too little, too late. I want to talk about that. It sort of finally happened. Not really a profile in courage, But Senator Mitch McConnell, a Republican, the guy who defended and enabled Donald Trump for years, defended him through scandal after scandal, made sure that Donald Trump's Supreme Court pick sailed through the Senate. Suddenly, when he's Got nothing to lose. He's not running for reelection. He finds his spine and decides that tariff policies are. They're really bad. Mitch McConnell is torching Trump's economic agenda. Yes, specifically the tariff stuff. And this is a big deal. Not because Mitch McConnell is some kind of economic genius or a beacon of integrity. He's certainly not. But he is, at least for now, one of the most powerful Republicans in the country, and he is openly rejecting Donald Trump's economic strategy. Take a listen to this. Former President Trump has proposed a 200% tariff on John Deere tractors if they're made in Mexico. Are you concerned that some of these tariff proposals by the GOP nominee could drive up costs for consumers or hurt bourbon exporters in Kentucky, for example?

[Caller 2]

Yeah, I'm not a fan of tariffs.

[David Pakman]

They raised prices for American consumers. I'm more of a free trade kind.

[Caller 2]

Of Republican that remembers how many jobs.

[David Pakman]

Are created by the exports that we engage in. So now, Mitch McConnell has never really liked Donald Trump for honest. He tolerated Trump. He used Trump to the extent that he could, and Trump used Mitch McConnell to the extent that he could. This is about something else. This is about Republicans realizing that Trump's economic agenda is a disaster and it'll be bad for their constituents. Remember, this is not a pejorative. I'm not being insulting. Red state economies, on average, are much less dynamic than blue state economies. You look at Nebraska and Oklahoma and you say, what industries do they have? And then you look at California, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, you say, what industries? The number of industries important to states are larger. It's a larger number in blue states than red states. And so Trump's entire economic pitch is, of course, he's a business mastermind and all of that stuff. And so these tariffs are going to be great, but these tariff policies consistently hurt American consumers. And if you're from a state that has one major industry supporting the economy, and that industry is going to get hurt, be it farming, be it whatever. It's a real problem. We've been through this before because Trump imposed imposed tariffs in his first term, and it didn't work very well. And Mitch McConnell knows it. Republicans know it. But for eight years, they've sort of let Trump push this nonsense. Four years while he was in office. Four years while he was out of office and Biden was president. And now that Mitch McConnell is retiring, he has no races left to run. He can say what's obvious to everybody, and it's all kind of a joke. This is, sadly, the Republican Party in a nutshell. Silent when it matters, complicit when it's convenient, and suddenly honest when there are no more consequences. And it's a little bit about the broader split in the Republican Party too. You've got the donor class Republicans, the corporate wing. They hate Trump's trade policies. They, the people who actually fund Republican campaigns do not want tariffs. They want free trade. And with Mitch McConnell speaking out, maybe other Republicans will follow. But the theme has been they only speak out when they have nothing left to lose. The question, of course, is, do Trump supporters care or are they just going to brush this off as the swamp attacking their guy? Mitch McConnell's a rhino. And whatever. We know the answer thanks to TRUMP Attacking Mitch McConnell for years now, which is he has already turned his followers against Mitch McConnell. And this is essentially what always happens. Trump does something dumb or economically ill advised. Republicans stay quiet and then when it's too late, they all act shocked. That's where we are. We will see where it lands. Hopefully there will be more of these Republicans. Remember that My first nonfiction book, first and last, I don't know, first nonfiction book the Echo Machine is publishing in just nine days. Ten days. There are a limited number of signed copies available from Brookline Booksmith. This is it. Brookline Booksmith is starting to ship them out now. I already signed 700 of these. Almost. My hand almost fell off. It was wild. They have a few left. You can get one at David pakman.com/booksmith. Of course you can also get it on Barnes and Noble, Amazon, Kindle Audio books, all of that stuff. And you can call any local bookstore and they will get the book for you. The Echo Machine from Beacon Press. Very exciting stuff. We are hoping the book does well and we will take the quickest of quick breaks and be right back. Did you know that 80% of New Year's resolutions fail by February? Lumen is something you can do for your health that's easy to stick to. Our sponsor, Lumen is the world's first handheld metabolic coach with a single breath. 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If you were ready to take underwear comfort to a new place, a place you didn't even know it could go, head over to sheath underwear.com/pacman and get 20% off with the code Pacman. That's S H E A T H underwear.com/pacman use code PAKMAN for 20% off. The link is in the podcast Notes the David Pakman show depends directly on your support to do what we do. Thank you to everyone who has signed up for a membership recently@join pacman.com it's not just philanthropy. You do get some great perks with your membership, including the daily bonus show commercial, free audio and video streams of the show every day, hours before the show is publicly released, and much more. Get your membership@join pacman.com takes about a minute with average computer skills is the way I like to explain it. And you can use the coupon code not again to save about 50% off of the cost of a membership. Donald Trump is creating a recession out of thin air. It takes some skill to do this. Recessions typically arise from complex economic factors, financial crises, a shock to supply, global events beyond any individual's control but the current economic precarity, the precipice of a recession on which we are, we're not in a recession yet, but there are growing concerns that we will be. It really relates directly to Trump's actions showcasing really a unique form of, of detrimental incompetence. Historically, recessions are triggered by for example the 2008 financial crisis. Excess debt in the housing market, bad loans made with little documentation led to a global financial meltdown. Other times it would be like the asset bubbles of 2001. The 2001 contraction was an asset bubble in tech stocks. It was referred to as the dot com bubble burst. Supply shocks are another possibility. You look at the 1970s where there was a recession because of oil price shocks, where steep increases in oil prices led to a decline in aggregate demand. In 2020, remember around Covid, there was this very brief downturn where fundamentally it was about the shutdown of economic activity. The current recession, if there is one we are not there yet, would be largely self inflicted through Donald Trump's erratic policies. The aggressive implementation of tariffs on trading partners, unforced error. This includes significant imports on Canadians, import taxes on Canadian steel and aluminum. That raises consumer prices there, reduces spending bad for the economy. This creates uncertainty among businesses. So you delay an investment or you wait on hiring people. And when you look at Trump's approach, varied tariffs on different people, federal hiring freezes, mass government layoffs, withdrawal from international commitments. It's erratic and it's a sort of shock therapy strategy that shifts from public to private spending in a lot of areas and also causes instability. We have not really seen this in modern economic history. Is a rare thing that a president's actions become the primary catalyst for a recession. Usually it's long term economic trends, a global pandemic, a global commodity market alteration or shock. And so one of the things that's important to remember is that on the one hand I'm careful on the show not to even give credit or blame to presidents when something doesn't have much to do with them. As many of you know, with gas prices now for more than a decade, go back to George W. Bush. I have made clear presidents can do very little on gas prices. We have the Strategic Petroleum Reserve which can temporarily reduce prices if accessed somewhere around 15 cents a gallon. You can do a gas tax holiday, which is a very brief thing, but for the most part we are talking about global circumstances. Presidents can convince oil producing nations to cut supply or to increase supply. Right? But for the most part gas prices aren't because of a president. High, low, good, bad. It's mostly not because of a president. We are reminded by what's going on right now. The current situation really kind of highlights that presidents can impact economic stability, especially when they start to deviate from established norms and create uncertainty. So we are not in a recession right now. I hope we don't get there. We're in a period of erratic instability. But it is, if it becomes that bad, a product of Donald Trump's own making. Europe is going directly after the red states over Donald Trump's tariffs. Trump picked a fight with Europe and they are hitting back hard, but the twist is that they are trying to make the pain land mostly in Republican states. This is very interesting. And this is what happens when Trump plays. Plays tough on trade without a real plan. Trump slapping these tariffs on steel and aluminum from Europe. And in response, the EU is dropping billions in counterterroriffs on American goods. But they're being very careful about exactly what they are going after. They are going after soybeans from Louisiana, they're going after beef and poultry from Kansas and Nebraska, they're going after produce from Alabama and Georgia and Virginia, really red states. Virginia, sometimes the exception, depending on whether you're talking local or national elections. Georgia did vote for Biden in 2020, but generally a red state. And meanwhile the blue states, Europe is not targeting. Why? Because our allies know that this is a Trump priority problem. This is not an America problem. On the bonus show a couple days ago, producer Pat and I talked about how my experiences in Canada, in Europe recently, even in South America, people's reaction when they hear that I'm from the United States is not to go, oh, you bastards with the Trump stuff. It's to assume I'm not party to it, I'm not part of it, I'm not supportive of it. And of course, they're correct when it comes to Trump. But the idea here is that Europe is doing what it can to avoid hurting the states that didn't vote for this nonsense. Now, of course, it's a little bit, you know, there are people who voted for Harris in red states and there are people who voted for Trump in blue states. You know, what was it, 35, 40% of Texas voted for Harris, 35, 40% of Massachusetts voted for Trump. But the. There's no, probably no more accurate shorthand other than maybe, you know, cities and rural. But what the European Commission is trying to do is say tariffs are bad for everybody. They raise prices, they kill jobs, they make the economy more unstable. American businesses seem to agree. Chamber of Commerce is begging for negotiations. Trump doesn't care. He did this in the first term. The tariffs didn't work out well. So now the EU is rolling out these counterterroriffs in phases. First, they're bringing back old tariffs from the last Trump trade war. Then they're slapping new ones on 20 billion in American exports next month. And the reality is that Trump's so called America first policies are leaving American workers last. That's who really suffers here. And the European Union was ready. Red states were not. So soon you're going to start hearing from angry, furious Republican lawmakers saying farmers are furious with us, Factory workers are furious with us. Business owners are furious with us. Now, there's another aspect to this, and this is so important to understand. One reason that tariffs hit red states harder is that many red states rely on one or sometimes two key industries. And on average, blue states have more diversified economies. Look at Nebraska and Kansas. Agriculture, that's the dominant industry, period. When tariffs hit beef, poultry, soybeans. There is nowhere to hide. West Virginia, heavily dependent on coal. If coal struggles, West Virginia struggles. Now compare that to California. California has tech, entertainment, agriculture and manufacturing compared to New York. Finance, media, tourism, major drivers of the economy. Massachusetts, biotech, robotics, AI, health care, higher education, finance, insurance, tourism, defense, aerospace and manufacturing. If one sector takes a hit, there are other industries to absorb the impact. And this is why Donald Trump's reckless policies trigger the economic retaliation and red states end up feeling the pain more directly. They do not have the same economic safety nets that blue states do. Trump got his tough guy moment. It ignores the fact that his voters are going to be the ones paying for it, but he got his moment. This is not a show where we normally talk about reality tv, but I'm going to play a clip for you here of a show called Love is Blind. Right wingers are melting down because an apparent anti vaccine homophobe got rejected by his bride to be for being a right wing nut. I'm so sorry to use this shorthand. They are furious about this. They are absolutely furious. So just stick with it. We're going to play the beginning of Sarah telling her fiancee, I guess I don't even know how these shows work, that she's not going to marry him and eventually we find out it's about the politics. Take a listen.

[Caller 3]

I love you so much, but I've always wanted a partner to be on the same wavelength and so today I can't.

[David Pakman]

Oh.

[Caller 3]

I'm sorry, but I don't want that to be misunderstood. I still love you and everything about you is amazing. And I care about you so much. I care about you, too. And I love you so much. And I know I want to stay with you and keep growing our relationship.

[David Pakman]

If you let me.

[Caller 3]

We'll see. We'll talk about that.

[David Pakman]

Okay, so then we skip ahead in this thing and the contestant is with her family in a car and starts to explain what this is about.

[Caller 3]

I just, like.

[David Pakman]

What?

[Caller 3]

I just hope I made the right decision.

[David Pakman]

Hi, guys.

[Caller 3]

Okay.

[David Pakman]

Love you. We love you. It was a lot, but we're. We're rolling with it. I just want to talk to everyone. Yeah.

[Caller 3]

Was it like the time frame? I mean, I knew the whole time coming into this, the time frame. Like, that's not. Like, I feel like I know him. Like, really?

[David Pakman]

Yeah.

[Caller 3]

Like, I remember, like, I asked him about, like, Black Lives Matter. And I'm no expert, but, like, when I asked him about it, he was like, I guess I never really thought too much. About it. That affected me, especially in our own city. Like, how could it not? How did it not make you think about something? I asked him too, like, what his church's views are, and he said he didn't know. And so then I watched a sermon online from his church about, yeah, sexual identity. Okay. And it was traditional. I told that to Ben. I just thought he doesn't really have much to say about it. You know, I want them to think about that stuff sometimes. I did wonder if it was surface fun, carefree, love that we had. Equality, religion, the vaccine.

[David Pakman]

Ok.

[Caller 3]

I love you.

[David Pakman]

So right wingers are just losing their minds over this. Some are saying, good for him. He dodged a woke bullet. And others are saying, this is crazy. Look at these crazy liberals. Listen, here's. Here's the bottom line. I've spoken about this before. It seems to me that if a couple has a disagreement as to what the tax rate should be, or even if one person is a libertarian who wants no taxes and says taxes are theft, or someone wants. Someone wants a flat tax, or those seem like completely reasonable differences on issues of policy. But there are issues that go further than that. And it seems completely reasonable to me that maybe it's just not a good fit in some of these things because policy preferences are not the only aspect to politics. What. What was her name? Sarah. What Sarah is talking about here is that Ben's core beliefs may be morally different than hers on equity, on perspectives of how others should be treated. And when you don't have those shared values it starts to affect, well, if we raise kids and we don't have the shared values, what happens if we, if we are engaging in a society and we have completely different views about societal issues? Can we really get beyond that? And so would it be crazy to end a relationship over a disagreement on tax policy or, you know, even other issues? Yeah, if it's a great relationship and there's chemistry in all of it, that seems to me like it maybe is a bit much. But the concept that, you know, love conquer, conquers all ignores that there are some deep ideological differences that can cause resentment and conflict and erode respect for each other. And you know what? Sarah figured that out. So now Sarah can go and find a different relationship and Ben can go and find a different relationship. And this isn't cancel culture. This isn't anything like that. This is, you know what, maybe they saved themselves a bunch of of later problems by Sarah figuring this out right now. It's the free market of ideas and this is where she's choosing to spend her proverbial money. These MAGA people have got to relax. The David Pakman Show's finances have gotten hacked before. I've talked about it on the show. The hacker stole a bunch of money. It was not a good feeling. I worry a lot less now that I use Aura, our sponsor. Aura gives me peace of mind by providing some critical layers of security. They continuously monitor the dark web and let me know if information's been exposed, logins, Social Security numbers, etc. They tell me quickly if anybody tries to use that information to access credit or bank accounts. And ORA also gives me up to $5 million in identity theft insurance should the worst case scenario happen. Andorra also helps me stay safe from getting hacked in the first place with their award winning anti malware software which I can use on all of my devices. And Aura has parental controls for kids devices to restrict apps or manage screen time, set focus time. A lot of these things all packaged together in a super easy to use format. Try aura free for two weeks at aura.com/pacman. It only takes a few seconds using the free trial to see if your usernames and passwords are already on the dark web. That's a u r a.com/pacman to try Aura free for two weeks. The link is in the podcast notes. I want to tell you the truth now about why Donald Trump and MAGA cannot accept the facts on so many basic issues. Last week I mentioned that part of the reason that they don't accept the facts on climate change or on tariffs or on many other issues is because they know that if they did accept the facts, their political positions would be not only illogical, but in some cases would be completely immoral. Accepting certain facts would force them to question their own policies and they can't afford to do that. Now. I will explain what I mean. Take climate change. For years, Republicans resisted acknowledging that climate change was real. Not because they truly thought 99% of climate scientists are in on some grand conspiracy, but because admitting it would mean confronting the obvious conclusion that we have to act, we have to do something. And since their donors make billions from oil and gas and their base doesn't want to hear about cutting emissions, or maybe I shouldn't have my huge gas guzzling suv, the only way to avoid dealing with that is to pretend that there's nothing to deal with. If you accept that yes, the climate is changing and humans have an impact, doing nothing and continuing to oppose renewable energy transition and getting away from fossil fuels, it would be immoral. So their solution is, is to not acknowledge it. Now here's another example. Immigration. If they admit, all right, you know what, it's true. Immigrants don't commit more crime than native born citizens. Both documented and undocumented immigrants commit crime at lower rates than native born Americans. They do help the economy. If you acknowledge that, suddenly the entire justification for draconian border policies falls apart. It wouldn't mean, oh, everybody gets to stay here illegally. But what it would mean is, listen, we can't do everything. We have limited resources. Undocumented immigrants who commit violent crimes would be a priority for deportation. But people who are working, paying into the system have done nothing wrong other than being here. They suddenly wouldn't be a priority to go find, wind up and deport. You would focus in other areas. So if you acknowledge that migrants aren't an existential threat, it's harder to justify locking up kids in cages or spending billions on a pointless border wall. So instead what they do is they flood right wing media with crime stories featuring specific undocumented immigrants. Even though at a societal level we know that immigrants commit less crime than native born Americans. MAGA has built an entire movement around the idea that Trump must have won in 2020. Why is that? Why won't they just acknowledge the facts? Because admitting that Trump lost fair and Square in 2020 would mean acknowledging that maybe they aren't a majority, maybe their ideas aren't so popular, maybe the policies aren't what most Americans want. And if they admit that, then suddenly they can't justify voter suppression, gerrymandering, their obsession with election integrity, laws that just make it harder for people to vote. It's the same pattern over and over again. You accept reality, that leads to uncomfortable policy debates, which means that simply denying reality is easier. Now, I do want to be objective here. This applies to the left on some issues. I'll give you an example. If the COVID vaccine does prevent catching or spreading the virus, there are many rules that are justifiable with regard to mandates. The original COVID vaccine against the original strain did seem to do that. It prevented you from catching it. And if you didn't catch it, you couldn't spread it. As the virus changed and so did the vaccines, they certainly still worked to prevent death, they certainly still worked to prevent hospitalization, but they did not prevent catching or spreading the virus. Once that was the reality, the justification for mandates in certain places for the COVID vaccine became weaker. Still something that I got, still something that I recommend. I'd rather have a lower shot at hospitalization or death. But the point here is sometimes resisting the facts is a way to avoid an uncomfortable reckoning with policy. So what's the point here? As far as MAGA is concerned? You can't reason with MAGA on facts alone because they know that once you establish the facts, you can't justify the policies. That's why climate change has to be a hoax. That's why immigrants have to be disproportionately criminals. That's why Trump had to have won in 2020. Because the moment they admit the truth, their entire political justification collapses. Taxes cut on the rich and corporations. It's another great example. If the average person hears, hey, you know, half the country would have to go into debt to cover a four hundred dollar expense or whatever the numbers are, it sounds immoral to cut taxes for the rich in corporations. They swoop in with trickle down and they go, no, no, no, no. If you cut taxes for the so called job creators, the rich people in the corporations, them having more money will trickle down to everybody. If you acknowledge that that's completely fabricated, you can't possibly morally justify tax cuts for the rich in corporations when so many average Americans, if they get a $200 blown out tire they need to replace, they have to put that on a credit card and start paying interest on it. So they deny reality. And where this puts us is that we end up stuck in an endless cycle where even agreeing on reality is impossible. Because reality is the biggest threat to MAGA's entire existence. I have a chapter in my book called what are facts as distinguished. So you've got the question, what are the facts? The facts might be, you know, here's the change to global temperatures and blah, blah. But then there's a question, what are facts? Because the other aspect to this is the maga, right? Saying what you're presenting as a fact is only your opinion. And I have a different opinion. Sometimes I call it an alternative fact. So that's an important issue. We saw this front and center in Sam Cedar's recent 20v1 Jubilee thing where they just won't even come to the table on the fact. He was arguing with some kid who was like, oh, you know, the whole point of DEI is tax cuts for government agencies when they hire white black people. And Sam goes, government agencies don't pay taxes. They don't get tax cuts. They're funded by taxes. And the guy's like, no. Well, if he were to have acknowledged. Actually don't remember if it was a guy or a girl, if that person had acknowledged, okay, yeah, it's true. Government agencies don't really pay taxes. The entire opposition to DEI as a way for government agencies to get tax cuts evaporates. So this is really a problem. This leads back to the lack of critical thinking, lack of media literacy and so on. But as I spoke about last week with Bill Adair, one of the reasons that they resist the facts are that the facts point to some unsustainable policy positions and they just don't even want to face it. So they won't even agree with you on the facts. How do we get out of that? One of the things I learned during my recent trip to Europe is that if I am on the wrong mattress, for me it's much harder to sleep well. Helix Sleep, our sponsor, has a two minute quiz that will ask about your height and weight, position you like to sleep in, whether you have back pain, whether you tend to feel hot or cold at night, and then you get matched with the mattress best suited for you. I was matched by Helix with their midnight mattress model. It has cooling features. I tend to get hot at night. I've been sleeping on this mattress for years and it's fantastic. Helix also just came out with these awesome new mattress toppers unlike anything I've seen or felt before. Their new dual comfort mattress Topper with Glacial Tex, which has a soft side and a firm side for two sleepers with different preferences. This has transformed the comfort of my bed. Every Helix mattress and Mattress topper come with 100 night sleep trial. If you don't love it, you get your money back. It's that simple. Helix will even get rid of your old mattress for you if you want. Helix is giving my audience 20% off site wide at helix sleep.com/pacman. That's H E L I X sleep.com/pacman. The link is in the podcast notes all right, let's get into Friday feedback for the week. Remember that you can write to info@david pakman.com if you have any message you would like to deliver. We will Also look at YouTube comments, Twitter, Twitter Responses Tik Tok Instagram the David Pakman show subreddit. You never know what will end up featured here. First is a message that came through from Instagram and this is an ugly one. Here's a guy who wrote and said I'm watching your episode on YouTube where you said Biden is the most successful president in 50 years. This is stupidity at its finest. Biden didn't do anything but make this country worse than it is. Go back to 2020-2024. The economy was doo doo and we had the worst border ever and we had drag queens messing with children. I ask you, what the fudge were you thinking? Biden is the worst and you know it. Pacman and of course understand that these people never have any facts. If I were to try to make such a such an argument, I would say here's how the unemployment rate was worse then and the stock market was doing worse and inflation was worse and job creation was worth but two months into Trump's presidency, what we see is that despite messages like this, it was doo doo, it was poopy, it was bird poop during Biden. What we see is is that the strong stock market growth of the Biden administration has been replaced with one of the most erratic stock markets with with some of the worst weeks in years already. We saw inflation start to tick up, we saw job creation decline significantly. We are starting to see strained, if not cracked relationships with historical allies. So make if your case is so strong, sir, make it with facts, make it with data and resist the ad hominems and then maybe you'll be taken a little bit more seriously. Jo g wrote on YouTube the elephant in the room. This is about the woman who voted Trump and then lost her job thanks to Doge Joe says the elephant in the room Is she regretful of her vote because she got fired? Would she have spoken against MAGA if she was still employed? And of course that is a completely fair Question. There are lots of people. This is not exclusive to the right, but there's a lot of them on the right. There are a lot of people who only care insofar as something affects them. And I it would be a great question for Riley if she appeared on this show. Is it only because you got fired fired that you now disapprove of what's been done? But if you had been able to keep your job and otherwise everything was the same, would you be as upset as you claim to be? Totally reasonable. Question. Villa Hitenan says 49 months of positive job growth and it took less than a month to tank it. Pretty remarkable. You know, job growth for February did come in well short of estimates. There was still job growth minimal, minimal. But it did come in very, very shy of estimates. One of the things I hope to get an answer to is on what day does it become Trump's economy? Because for now, Maria Bartiromo says, yes, there's a recession coming, but it is going to be Trump's recession. Trump says yes, egg prices are sky high, but that's thanks to Joe Biden. My question is on what day can we finally say this is now Trump's economy? And we can, it's not about blame or credit, but we can hold Trump accountable for what takes place in this economy. Let me know the date. Is it April 1st? Is it May 1st? Is it next year? Or is the answer when anything good happens, it's Trump's economy. When anything bad happens, it's Biden's Tiffy Kitty commented on YouTube. I lost my job during the Trump Covid disaster and I've lost my job again because of Trump's tariffs. I had a job during the entire Biden administration. This is an anecdote. We recognize that this is an anecdote, but imagine losing your job twice thanks to the same president. Now of course, the COVID disaster. And those job losses, a lot of them aren't Trump's fault, but I feel terribly for Tiffy Kitty. This is absolutely horrible. Kurt Blatchnick says on Facebook there is a reason why Warren Buffett cashed out a lot of stocks cash heavy now will be in good shape when the market crashes. Money to buy stocks with at low prices. Yeah, listen, I don't follow what Warren Buffett does. His, his day to day moves. What this is a market timing idea. Okay. What Kurt is suggesting is, is get into cash now so that you'll have cash available to buy stocks on the cheap when the stock market continues crashing. 2 comments on this, this is not financial advice. This is just my philosophy and I've talked about it before. This is a form of market timing. I don't think I'm smart enough, good enough or good looking enough. Gosh darn it, no, I don't think I'm, I'm intelligent or well versed enough to properly time the market. It seems incredibly shaky, but I don't know where we're going to be in 15 days or 30 days or whatever. So I don't do any of this market timing. What I do is I identify how much cash do I want for my asset allocation. Maybe it's 10 to 12% of assets. And then I just maintain the asset allocations that are appropriate for the levels of risk I've chosen to accept. And so when you start toying around with I think the market will go down, so I'll hoard cash and then when the market does go down, I'll put all my money in. A lot of money is lost this way because it's very hard to know when the bottom is. People keep waiting and waiting and sometimes they miss stock market run ups. Something like 50% of stock market gains each year come from the 10 best trading days. Are you confident that you're going to know when those best 10 trading days are? Maybe you are. I'm not. And So I simply dollar cost average in twice a month, somewhere around the first of the month, somewhere around the 15th of the month. Will I miss some dips where I could have gotten in a little cheaper? Yes. But I have the confidence of knowing I'm not going to miss those 10 biggest days of the year. So I don't recommend dollar cost averaging. Maybe. I'm sorry, I don't recommend timing the market. I recommend dollar cost averaging. Maybe Warren Buffett is smart enough and he's got enough money to play with that. He can do it. Peace and love, but not for me. Far abbreviations posted on the subreddit. I miss the daily voicemails writing. I miss the wacky voicemails and David's commentary around them. I didn't like listening to the Friday call portion even though I was someone who called in. But I do miss the voicemails, especially if there is a shorter 45 minute show. I'm not aware of any shorter 45 minute shows. I understand why they aren't included in hour or longer shows. Yeah, I'm not aware of any show that's 45 minutes. Interestingly, listen, we have something like 12,000 unlistened to voicemails. At this point, I'll actually tell you the exact number. At this point, I would suggest, oh, 14000. We have moved away from voicemails, so don't feel inclined to continue leaving them. We did. We got very little pushback about cutting the voicemail segment. Most people didn't like it. And interestingly, the show has grown faster than ever since we cut those calls and voicemail segments. So overall, overall, it does seem like the right decision. And I stand by it. Gosh darn it, Kathy Chase Hamilton says on Facebook about Trump not wearing his reading glasses. It's definitely a vanity thing. Glasses will make him seem weak. Yeah. You know, it's funny. Trump is more worried about how he looks with glasses than about appearing to be unable to read. And as we talked about last week, I don't know if Trump struggles to read. It certainly seems like he does. At the same time, we've speculated, is part of this the result of Trump not wearing reading glasses that he should be wearing? Trump prefers not wearing glasses and people questioning whether or not he can read. On the Zelensky not wearing a suit issue, Susan wrote on Facebook, Americans have no problem with Zelensky not wearing a suit. Hmm. How does Musk address when he goes to the White House? Yeah, of course, it's a double standard. As Susan is pointing out, we were treated to or subjected to, maybe better said, a sanctimonious scolding of Vladimir, Vladimir Zelensky by JP Mandel because he wasn't wearing a suit in the Oval Office. And Brian Glenn and others did the same. But Elon Musk was at a cabinet meeting in a T shirt with a big hat. This is just hypocrisy. It's a double standard. It is just completely fabricated and contrived and we shouldn't pay any more attention to it than we already have. All right. We're just days away from the release of my book. And as I've mentioned before, the signed copies of the book have been available at Brookline Booksmith through David pakman.com/booksmith. We got about 800 orders for signed copies. The plan right now is that Booksmith is going to have me sign a thousand when I go up there, and then the extras will just be available until they run out. So of the thousand copies of the book that I will be signing, 800 roughly are spoken for. If you'd like one of the remaining couple hundred, go to David pakman.com/booksmith Please, please, please remember, because the books are going to start shipping soon. The more reviews we can get on Amazon and Barnes and Noble, which costs nothing to review the book, the better the book is going to do. So once you get the book, once you can accurately review it, please start leaving those those reviews. We're kind of shifting from week one into weeks two to four, publicity, which are tough weeks because all those pre orders count for week one. So make sure to leave a review. Get the Kindle version, get the audiobook version. All of these versions are important, but the signed copies only. At David pakman.com/booksmith we will see you on the bonus show in a moment.