Transcript
David Pakman (0:07)
Welcome to the show. A growing number of right wing voices are expressing not only skepticism but they are straight up saying this tariff scheme does not make sense. We are going to hear from a former economic adviser to Trump, now a Fox News host. We are going to hear from a current Fox News host whose lifelong dream seems to have been to brown nose and suck up to Donald Trump who now says it seems like we're heading for a recession. We are going to hear so much that is suggesting that this is a bridge too far even for many magazines. Let's start with Larry Kudlow. Larry Kudlow was a Trump economic adviser during term number one. Larry Kudlow now hosts a show on Fox Business and he interviewed Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and he explained that trade deficits aren't actually a bad thing for wealthy developed countries. Something I've been saying for a very long time. Take a listen to this.
Larry Kudlow (1:07)
I don't know if you heard Art Laffer in the prior interview, but Art doesn't believe that the trade deficit should be a metric. I don't really either. I mean, Mr. Secretary, if you get your tax cuts and I guess you're well on the way, you get your deregulation, these are all huge pro growth items. Okay, we will grow, we, the United States will grow faster than Japan. We will grow faster than almost anybody. Therefore almost by definition by growing faster than the rest of the world, we're always going to have a trade deficit. So I don't know why you'd want to use the trade deficit in a calculation for a reciprocal charge. I understand your point about non tariff barriers. I get that. That's why I would have chosen a handful of countries, I don't know, maybe 10 or a dozen countries and really carefully pinpointed it. But to apply this to the whole world on the basis of trade deficits, is that really the best in your judgment? You've been around a long time. You've looked at these, you've done analysis say really where we should be at?
Maria Bartiromo (2:10)
Well, look Larry, the trade deficit as.
Larry Kudlow (2:13)
You and Art know, it's is a.
David Pakman (2:15)
Result of three things. It's a result of the terms of trade, it's a result of our budget.
Larry Kudlow (2:21)
Deficit and it's the result of the.
Katherine Stewart (2:23)
Level of the dollar.
David Pakman (2:24)
And that is all either untrue or when it comes to the level of the dollar, sort of indirectly true. And I'm going to explain, but zoom out for a second. When former Trump economic adviser Larry Kudlow is the voice of reason and he's saying why are we Even considering the trade deficit in terms of calculating the tariff, which is what apparently Donald Trump did, we had no idea at the beginning, where did they come up with these numbers? They didn't make any sense. It then seemed to be figured out that they were applied by dividing the trade deficit by 2. It's bizarre stuff. But let me explain to you why Larry Kudlow is completely correct. Countries like the United States run trade deficits. We've run a trade deficit for a really long time because definitionally, what that means is we import more than we export. We buy more from other countries than that which we sell to other countries. Now, you might say, oh, that sounds bad. It's bad for the economy. We're losing money. More money is flowing out to other countries when we import stuff than the amount that's flowing in from other countries when we sell them stuff. But that's the wrong approach. The United States is huge, strong, and stable. It attracts foreign investment. When other people. When people in other countries rather invest in American businesses and in American real estate and in government bonds or whatever, that money flows into the United States. That helps to pay for those imports. We have a huge amount of purchasing power here in the United States, so we buy a ton of foreign made goods. It's not bad. It gives consumers choices and it lowers prices. Now, you could say, I want to reverse all of it, bring all of the supply chains back home, fine. But the point here is we've designed the country to work this way. We have opted for 50 years. Cumulatively, we've made decisions politically, Democrats and Republicans, predicated on the idea that we'd rather have a huge amount of buying power for cheap stuff from other countries. So the United States having a trade deficit doesn't mean we're in debt. We might have a debt, but debt is a separate thing. It means foreigners are investing in American assets. And then we have this trade deficit which comes from buying a whole bunch of stuff with that wealth. It's not like a personal debt. It's not automatically what we look at to say things are going well or things are not going well. And consider the opposite. If the United States started to export more than we import, we would have a trade surplus. In Trump's extremely myopic worldview, I guess that would be good, but it would actually be a sign of a bad economic situation, depending on why it's happening. I'll give you an example. If American consumers and businesses suddenly stop buying imports, it might not be because they got patriotic, as Trump defines it. It could be because they're just cutting back spending. And that's often a sign of recession or an economic slowdown. One reason that the United States runs trade deficits in general is because the rest of the world wants to invest in the United States. And, and if that interest dries up, say because of a financial crisis or political instability or they lose trust in American institutions, those investment dollars stop coming in. So this entire, the trade deficit is objectively a bad thing and we're going to fix it. This is a country that has been built on running a trade deficit since 1970. To change that is possible, it's not necessarily good. And it would definitely mean that things cost more money. In a wild turn of events, Fox News host Maria Bartiromo is finally saying the quiet part out loud. Donald Trump's economic plans could induce a recession. She has been carrying water, big water for MAGA economics for a very long time. But even Maria can't ignore the warning signs. And here is a clip of Bartiromo acknowledging this aggressive tariff proposal. If this isn't reversed, if this sticks this way, this could lead to a recession. Even Fox News hosts are realizing this is potentially economic suicide.
