Transcript
David Pakman (0:07)
Welcome to the show, everybody. One of the, I believe, most useful things that we can do, at least to create a baseline for evaluating a presidency, is to really keep track of a bundle of economic indicators. And we've talked about before how I, of course, have personal views and opinions and biases, but that at least as a starting point, I may have an opinion about gay marriage, for example, but at least as a starting point, it's a good thing to look at 5, 6, 7 economic metrics and say, let's put aside our opinions about the president, let's put aside for a moment our views on social issues, and let's just track how economic indicators have changed under the current president versus the previous one. In this particular case, what we're saying is how does the Trump administration second term now four months in compare economically with what we saw during Joe Biden's presidency? One of the, I think, relevant things to understand about the tariff program is that the announcement of tariffs and then the suspension of tariffs, all still, for the most part, not yet started. Even though there are some tariffs on China, they really affect futures markets. The stock market is a futures market the day you announce tariffs, especially if they are to take effect at some future point, nothing changes that day about the profitability of a publicly traded company, but its share price may go down because it reflects beliefs about the future profitability of that company. So all of this being said, we can simultaneously understand how blanket tariffs on every country would be bad for American companies, small businesses and individuals, but recognize that not all of that takes effect right away and maybe isn't reflected in economic indicators. So that being said, where are we right now with regard to the primary metrics that we track to evaluate a presidency? Well, let's start with unemployment. The unemployment rate at the end of Joe Biden's term was 4.1. Right now, four months into Trump's presidency, it's at 4.2. It's essentially unchanged now. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and economists have said if the full scope of Trump's threatened tariffs become real and then the effect of that trickles down through the economy, you're going to get higher unemployment. We don't have it yet. Right now, unemployment is basically unchanged from where it left off with Joe Biden. Okay, let's continue to inflation. A year over year inflation at the end of Joe Biden's presidency, let's say for 2024, which includes the last full month that Biden was president, year over year, inflation was 2.9% after three months. After four months really, under Donald Trump, that is now down to 2.3%. We're going to get, we have the latest April number, rather, 2.3%. So inflation has declined under Trump. This, these are just the facts. And I know that there are people who will be furious at me, furious about numbers. This is where we are. Is it the case that Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman and every serious economist have said, if Trump's tariffs go at the full rate and they continue, it's going to drive inflation? Yes, that's absolutely true. Are we seeing it yet? The answer is no. Now, of course, anecdotally, or if we want to break these numbers down into constituent parts, we can certainly find some industries that are starting to see some additional price inflation. But so far, inflation is down now from where it was when Donald Trump took over GDP. GDP is a sign of concern. What we saw, the Q4 number, which was the final quarter that Joe Biden was, was president, annualized to 2.3% growth for the economy in the first quarter of Donald Trump's second term, January, February, March of this year, we saw a decline in GDP of 0.3%. This was hugely significant. This was the first time that GDP declined in the United States in years. So although unemployment is basically flat, inflation is slightly down. We did see a GDP decline in the first quarter of this year. That's not a good indicator. And of course the part, one of the reasons for that is that anticipating tariffs, many companies stocked up on inventory, meaning they imported more, which contributes to the GDP decline in these numbers. Okay, so that's where we are interest rates, which Donald Trump promised to bring down. Typically when we say where are interest rates? We look at the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. At the end of Joe Biden's presidency, the 30 year fixed rate mortgage was at 7.04. Right now it's at 6.81. So we've seen a modest, maybe about, you know, a quarter point decline point to three, in fact, decline in mortgage rates under Donald Trump. Significant, not really a decline. Yes, it's a decline. And of course, declining mortgage rates make homes slightly more affordable, although at the same time, mortgage rates and home prices tend to move in opposite directions. So you would, you would expect to see a slight increase in home prices to account for the decrease in the 30 year mortgage rate. The stock market, this has been maybe one of the most critical ones because after the announcement of the Liberation Day tariffs, quote, unquote, Liberation Day tariffs, we saw significant market shakiness and massive declines. As we spoke about Yesterday with JL Collins, some said the United States is not going to recover these stock market losses for years. And it could be a decade. It could be years. It's recovered. We. The stock market is now essentially flat. The s and P500 down less than half a point since Donald Trump took over. As, as we spoke about yesterday with JL Collins, there are people saying, this is what we call a dead cat bounce, and the stock market will decline 10, 20, 30% from where it is now as the tariffs take their full effect. Others said, no, that's it. It's over. The calamity is over. I have no idea. I don't pretend to know. I don't think I'm smart enough to predict that. But as of this moment, the stock market flat. Now, some would say, given how bad things were looking, flat's pretty good. Others would say flat means we're on track for zero stock market growth. In other words, if you take a.5% decline in four months, that's like a 1.5% decline over the course of a year. It's not a disaster, but it's a little bit of loss. So it depends on your expectation. But I think there is upside, which is it looked like we were going to be down 15% this year. And on the other hand, if we expect and desire an average of 7% stock market growth a year over the long term, we're falling very short of that. So interpret that yourself. On consumer sentiment, that is an area that is significantly declined at the end of Biden's presidency. Consumer sentiment was 71. This is indexed to 100. It was. So the numbers are sort of arbitrary, but the idea is think about 100 as being sort of neutral. We went from 71 in terms of consumer expectations about the economy down to 57, one of the lowest numbers we've seen for consumer sentiment, which just reflects expectations about the economy and a very long time. And then finally on gas prices. Gas prices, basically flat. 311 a gallon when Biden left office, a 316 a gallon. Right now it's a 5. It's like a 1% increase in gas prices. If we compare it to what Joe, what Donald Trump promised, which is massive 50% declines in the cost of energy and gas prices, well, he's certainly falling short there. If we compare it to a massive economic disaster, certainly not one. So what is the empirical picture about the economy? Expectations are that people are very worried the economy is going in the wrong direction. GDP decline, certainly a concern most other metrics Basically flat. That's where we are. The, the next step is to analyze, and we're going to delve more deeply into that tomorrow. Well, we saw yesterday what happens when Donald Trump is asked real, substantive policy questions, and it's not good. He doesn't like it. Donald Trump was asked about this new, big, beautiful bill. Can you guarantee that your voters will not lose health insurance under this bill? Intuitively, we know that they will if the bill comes to full fruition because of the cuts that are in the bill. If you think back to 2017, we all remember that when Trump actually had a plan, it was the plan Republicans decided not to go forward with in 2017, because somewhere between 24 and 32 million Americans would have lost health care coverage over the following decade. So they don't have exactly a good track record with this stuff. But needless to say, here is Trump answering the question, can you guarantee no one will lose health insurance? And Trump's like, yeah, no, they won't. And then he goes on to talk about completely unrelated things.
