The David Pakman Show
Episode: 5/21/25: Economic Update, Habeas Corpus Collapse, a New Golden Dome
Release Date: May 21, 2025

1. Economic Update Under Trump's Second Term

Host David Pakman begins the episode by emphasizing the importance of tracking a comprehensive set of economic indicators to evaluate a presidency objectively. He contrasts the economic performance during Donald Trump's second term with Joe Biden's administration, focusing on several key metrics:

• Unemployment Rate:

  • Biden's End: 4.1%
  • Trump's Current: 4.2%
  • Insight: Unemployment remains virtually unchanged, despite concerns that Trump's tariff policies might lead to job losses. Pakman notes, "Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and economists have said... higher unemployment [is possible], but we don't have it yet" ([00:07]).

• Inflation:

  • Biden's End (2024): 2.9%
  • Trump's Current: 2.3%
  • Insight: Inflation has decreased under Trump. Pakman states, "Inflation has declined under Trump. These are just the facts" ([00:07]).

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP):

  • Last Quarter Biden: 2.3% growth
  • First Quarter Trump: -0.3%
  • Insight: The GDP saw a decline in Trump's first quarter, the first drop in years, attributed partly to inventory stocking in anticipation of tariffs.

• Interest Rates:

  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate:
    • Biden's End: 7.04%
    • Trump's Current: 6.81%
  • Insight: A modest decline in mortgage rates makes homes slightly more affordable, though home prices may rise inversely.

• Stock Market:

  • S&P 500: Down less than half a point since Trump took office.
  • Insight: The market remains flat, defying some predictions of prolonged declines due to tariffs. Pakman remarks, "The stock market flat... it depends on your expectation" ([00:07]).

• Consumer Sentiment:

  • Biden's End: 71
  • Trump's Current: 57
  • Insight: A significant decline reflects growing economic concerns among consumers.

• Gas Prices:

  • Biden's End: $3.11 per gallon
  • Trump's Current: $3.16 per gallon
  • Insight: Gas prices remain essentially flat, with only a marginal increase, falling short of Trump's promises of substantial reductions.

Conclusion: While some economic indicators like inflation and mortgage rates show improvement under Trump, others like GDP growth and consumer sentiment raise concerns. Pakman summarizes, "Expectations are that people are very worried the economy is going in the wrong direction" ([00:07]).

2. Trump's Press Briefing and Policy Announcements

Pakman critiques Trump's performance during a recent closed-door press briefing with House Republicans, highlighting his evasive and deflective responses to substantive questions:

• Health Insurance Guarantees:
  When asked if Trump can guarantee that voters won't lose health insurance under a new bill, Trump responds by shifting focus to drug price cuts:

  Donald Trump ([10:21]): "Not only that, remember, I'm cutting drug prices by 85%... we're now going to pay the lowest in the world." ([10:21])

  Pakman's Analysis: "Trump gives only the most minor... No one will lose health care coverage. But then very quickly moves on to the issue of the pharmaceutical prices that he's going to cut" ([10:49]).

• Food Assistance Cuts:
  Upon questioning the rationale behind cutting food assistance, Trump attributes it to decreased grocery prices:

  Donald Trump ([12:02]): "The cut is going to give everybody much more food because prices are coming way down... Gasoline is now buying. They're buying gasoline now for $1.99." ([12:02])

  Pakman's Critique: "Trump regularly lying about gas prices... his promises seem completely not based in fact."

• Obsession with the Golden Dome:
  Trump announces the "Golden Dome missile defense shield," a policy Pakman views as unrealistic and fiscally irresponsible:

  Donald Trump ([27:47]): "We're going to have it at the highest level... fully operational before the end of my term." ([27:47])

  Pakman's Commentary: "This ideal defense system... makes no sense whatsoever at this point in time... an entirely fantastical promise."

• Evasive Responses and Authoritarian Tendencies:
  When pressed on policy details, Trump deflects or provides misleading information:

  Donald Trump ([33:24]): "The USA, by the way, very important... Declaration of Independence." ([33:24])

  Pakman's Observation: "Trump is reluctantly acknowledging superficial questions while avoiding substantive answers, showcasing a move towards authoritarian behavior."

3. Republican Stance on Habeas Corpus and Civil Liberties

The episode delves into a critical discussion on civil liberties, focusing on Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem's misunderstanding of habeas corpus, a fundamental constitutional right.

• Pressing Questions on Habeas Corpus:
  During a hearing, Senator Maggie Hassan questions Secretary Noem:

  Senator Maggie Hassan ([40:44]): "What is habeas corpus?"
  Kristi Noem ([40:44]): "Habeas corpus is a constitutional right that the president has to be able to remove people from this country." ([40:44])

• Clarification and Correction:
  Pakman explains the true meaning of habeas corpus:

  Satatus Massie ([40:55]): "Habeas corpus is the legal principle that requires that the government provide a public reason for detaining and imprisoning people... separates free societies like America from police states like North Korea." ([40:55])

  Noem's Flawed Interpretation:
  Instead of recognizing habeas corpus as a protection against unlawful detention, Noem incorrectly states it as a presidential power to remove individuals from the country.

• Implications:
  Pakman warns that such misunderstandings signal a "Republican war on civil liberties," where fundamental protections could become negotiable and subject to presidential discretion.

  Pakman: "This is a window into how authoritarianism grows. You fill positions of power with people who are ignorant and loyal... the most fundamental protections... start to become negotiable." ([58:14])

4. Internal Republican Conflicts Over Fiscal Responsibility

Pakman highlights internal tensions within the Republican Party, particularly regarding fiscal policies:

• Thomas Massie's Critique of Trump's Tax Plan:
  Massie, a libertarian Republican, opposes Trump's tax plan citing its potential to balloon the deficit:

  Pete Hegseth ([46:44]): "We're going to add $20 trillion to debt over the next 10 years..." ([46:56])

  Pakman's Analysis: "Thomas Massie is not a moderate... it's about loyalty, not fiscal responsibility. If you deviate, you become persona non grata." ([47:14])

• Trump's Response to Dissent:
  Pakman illustrates how Trump prioritizes loyalty over policy correctness, suggesting that any criticism of his tax plan leads to calls for removal from office.

  Pakman: "If you deviate even one iota from the Trump line... 'you're a traitor. You're done.'" ([47:14])

5. The Decline of Elon Musk's Political Involvement

The episode briefly touches on Elon Musk's reduced engagement in political spending:

• Musk's Withdrawal from Political Contributions:
  After significant investments in Trump's campaigns, Musk announces a decrease in political spending, citing blowback from his actions:

  Caroline Levitt ([51:20]): "I'm going to do a lot less [political spending] in the future." ([51:36])

• Impact on Musk's Reputation:
  Pakman discusses how Musk's political involvement has alienated half the country, damaging his brands like Tesla, and notes Trump's apparent relief at Musk stepping back.

  Pakman: "He's done enough damage... He has done enough buying his way into an administration wreaking complete and total havoc." ([52:15])

6. Investigations and Political Maneuvering

Pakman concludes with updates on ongoing political investigations and their potential motivations:

• Justice Department Investigation into Andrew Cuomo:
  Speculation arises that the investigation may be strategically timed to undermine Cuomo's bid for New York mayor.

• Bonus Show Preview:
  Pakman teases a bonus show discussing conflicting reports about Qatar's alleged plane gift to Trump and other unfolding political scenarios.

Key Takeaways

• Economic Indicators: Mixed results under Trump's second term with some improvements and notable declines.
• Authoritarian Behaviors: Concerns over Trump's evasive responses and Republican officials' misunderstandings of fundamental legal principles.
• Party Loyalty vs. Policy: Internal conflicts highlight a prioritization of loyalty over substantive policy debates within the Republican Party.
• Reduced Political Spending by Influencers: Figures like Elon Musk are distancing themselves from political contributions due to negative repercussions.
• Ongoing Political Investigations: Strategic timing of investigations suggests potential political motivations beyond sheer legality.

Notable Quotes:

• David Pakman ([00:07]): "Let's put aside our opinions about the president... let's just track how economic indicators have changed under the current president versus the previous one."
• Donald Trump ([10:21]): "Not only that, remember, I'm cutting drug prices by 85%... we're now going to pay the lowest in the world."
• Senator Maggie Hassan ([40:55]): "Habeas corpus is the legal principle that requires that the government provide a public reason for detaining and imprisoning people."
• Thomas Massie ([46:44]): "We're going to add $20 trillion to debt over the next 10 years..."
• Donald Trump ([27:47]): "We're going to have it at the highest level... fully operational before the end of my term."

This comprehensive summary captures the essential discussions and insights from "The David Pakman Show" episode aired on May 21, 2025, providing listeners with an in-depth understanding of the topics covered.