Transcript
David Pakman (0:07)
Welcome to the show. In a very chaotic and sleep deprived overnight session, the House of Representatives passed just barely, Donald Trump's really flagship tax and spending bill called the Big beautiful bill. The one big beautiful bill. It was a razor thin margin to 15 to 214. It happened just shy of 4am Pacific time, I guess almost 7am Eastern time. And the vote came after a whole bunch of floor fights and arguments and speeches and last minute arm twisting. And they broke into a chant of usa, usa. Republicans did as Trump gets a temporary win. This is certainly one of the most controversial legislative packages in years. We talked earlier this week about what's in it. I'll refresh that with you in a moment. Here are Republicans triumphantly and courageously celebrating. I don't really mean that, but it may be a premature celebration. We'll talk about why a little bit later. Take a listen. On this vote, the AZER215. The nays are 214 with one answering present.
Donald Trump (1:26)
The bill is passed.
David Pakman (1:39)
Okay. Anyway, so that went on, you understand, USA, etc. Cheering for a bill that will cut taxes for the rich, cut health care, all of the things that we talked about, because it's really way more than a tax bill. It's almost depraved to be cheering for this. It's a full blown ideological manifesto of sorts. So as a reminder, here is what they pushed through in the House of Representatives. While most of us were sleeping, I was awake, but most of us were sleeping. $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, mostly extending the 2017 cuts of Trump's first term. New tax exemptions on tips, overtime pay and car loan interest. Standard deduction increase up to $32,000 for joint filers, expanded child tax credit for older adults and a deduction for older adults. And to pay for some of this, Republicans put in new work requirements, benefits for people on Medicaid. Adults without dependents must work or do community service for 80 hours a month to maintain those benefits for SNAP and food stamps. Similar work rules now applying to people up to 64 years of age, including even to some parents with school age kids. What will that mean? It means some people will lose Medicaid. Some people, some people will lose SNAP and food stamps. That, that's just, it's the point of it. Let's make it more difficult to keep those benefits and kick some people off. Other provisions include, of course, rolling back green energy tax credits from Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction act, which were fantastic. $150 billion for the Pentagon. This includes the Money, at least theoretically, for Donald Trump's Golden Dome missile shield, which we spoke about yesterday. $12 billion for deportations and, and border enforcement with reimbursement for red states and the creation of these MAGA accounts. It's not Make America Great again. I forget what it is, but the acronym works out to be maga. It's a children's savings program branded with Trump's slogan, which actually isn't so hot, as I explained earlier this week. And then one of the bigger elements of this financially is the salt cap increase from 10,000 to $40,000 for earners up to $500,000, which is really, you know, you could argue as to whether it should be completely uncapped or not. And we've had this debate, but certainly it is something that will be extraordinarily expensive. The Congressional Budget Office has looked at the bill as passed by Republicans in the House. Now, remember that this has to make it through the Senate. It's not going to make it through the Senate in this form. Doesn't even have a chance. I'll talk to you about that a little bit later. But if this version became the law, you know, I'm just a bill up on Capitol Hill. And if it becomes the law, 8.6 million people would lose health insurance if passed like this. 3 million fewer people would get food stamps monthly. And about $4 trillion would be added to the deficit over a decade, even after accounting for all of the spending cuts. So the biggest big question, this is the big matzo ball hanging out there. Can this pass in the Senate in this form? It's unlikely and we'll delve into that more deeply. But maga, Mike Johnson and Trump really muscled this through in a very fragile coalition. They had to sort of cave to every faction, the Freedom Caucus hardliners, the New York moderates. And so it's like a Frankenstein bill cobbled together with a whole bunch of different contradictions. And so the, the, the fiscal hawks like Rand Paul in the Senate, I can't imagine he's going to go for it. The moderates like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski will be very concerned about some aspects of it, but they probably wouldn't vote for it in its current form. You're pro business Republicans, people kind of in the Mitt Romney mold. I don't think they want to roll back the renewable energy incentives in states like Iowa and Texas because those are good for those red states. So with a 60 vote filibuster threshold in the Senate, it virtually ensures that this version of the bill is dead on arrival. But that doesn't mean it can't pass in some form. And it probably will pass in some some form is my prediction. So the House Republicans know that what they passed this morning and cheered usa, usa. It's not going to survive the Senate in this form. That was never the point. The goal was let's give Trump a win. Let's create something we can run on. We passed it in the House, reelect me, I can't control the Senate. But we did our task. And then they will frame it as not only did we do tax cuts, we also did border security, immigration enforcement, all of it. And I think in MAGA world, based on the hours that have elapsed since 7am Eastern this morning, I think MAGA world is falling for it. The sun rose over Washington like a phoenix over the horizon. It and Republicans celebrated despite the fact that this will probably go to the Senate graveyard. They'll probably pass something, but it's not going to be this. Now, what is the Democratic view on what Republicans in the House just did? That's where I want to go next. We saw overnight speeches from Republicans and Democrats culminating, as I told you, in the House, passing by one vote the Trump sort of Frankensteined together tax bill just shy of 7am Eastern, 4am Pacific. One member of Congress who took to the floor in the late hours last night, I think this was right around, let's see, 1:50am Eastern, is Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. And she dropped what I think is maybe the most prophetic warning to Republicans for what they did, warning Republicans that when the country wakes up, there will be consequences. Now, I think she meant both literally when the country wakes up because this was the middle of the night and metaphorically, when the country realizes what Republicans are doing, there will be consequences. You know, I think I would put it a slightly different way. And it's if the country wakes up, let's watch the video and then I will explain. Her analysis is correct, but her prediction may be overestimating the country a little bit. Take a listen.