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A major foreign policy news with potentially catastrophic implications. Today, something light to start the show with right? For the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, a Naito country has fired in self defense. What happened is that Poland says 19 drones entered its airspace during a Russian strike on Ukraine. Polish forces shot down those that posed a threat. This is not like a minor border incident the way we've sometimes heard about and read about. Poland's prime minister says this is a large scale provocation. It has triggered Article 4 of the Naito Treaty which demands urgent consultations with all member countries. The Polish prime minister saying this is the closest we have been to war since World War II. Now this is not only, you know, our primary concern is we don't want anybody hurt, we don't want anybody killed. By the way, the death toll in this Russian invasion of Ukraine has reached completely unconscionable numbers. I mean just dwarfing, dwarfing anything going on globally. So since 2022, and there is after the humanitarian concern, a foreign policy concern, a domestic concern, a Naito concern. This is the kind of crisis that Naito was created to address. The whole point of Naito is collective defense, shared deterrence, strength in numbers. But right now, the most powerful member of of Naito, the United States, is led by Donald Trump. Donald Trump is skeptical of these sort of shared defense treaties. Donald Trump has spent years insulting Naito allies. Donald Trump has questioned why should we even defend anybody? He has sometimes publicly sided with Vladimir Putin and he has talked about who's paying their fair share and who isn't. So you've got European leaders saying, we need unity. This is an urgent situation. They're talking about sanctions, they're talking about readiness, they're talking about putting more pressure on Russia. But from Trump, so far, we have heard nothing meaningful. Trump went to a restaurant in D.C. last night, was booed mercilessly, asked about what's going on in Poland and said nothing. And arguably the part that really matters here is respect. And this is not like authoritarian. Have you said thank you? Do you respect? What I mean is, does Putin respect Trump? Do the member nations of Naito respect Trump? Putin is testing. And Putin has tested American presidents before. Under Obama, the test was Crimea. Under Biden, it was the full scale invasion of Ukraine. And now under Trump, it its direct violations of Naito territory. Is Trump going to have the testicular fortitude or even the interest in doing anything here? Because just a couple of weeks after Trump welcomed Putin to the United States in that totally farcical Alaska summit, they shook hands, they smiled for the cameras. Trump was barely able to walk in a straight line on the red carpet, but he still laid out the red carpet just weeks after that. And by the way, weeks after we asked, have you asked Putin for any concessions? Has Putin agreed to any concessions? We didn't really get reasonable answers to any of that. Just weeks after that, Russian drones fly into Polish airspace. Do you believe that that's a coincidence? Putin either knows or strongly suspects that Trump is not going to act decisively. And why would he? Trump is enamored with Vladimir Putin. Trump is impressed by the sort of authoritarian, dictatorial power of Vladimir Putin. He knows Putin does that. Trump doesn't really value the Naito promise that if you attack one country, you're really attacking all of the countries. Trump has said it's a bad deal. He said everybody needs to pay up before we defend anybody. So the whole point of the alliance and is shared defense. And Trump has turned it into a kind of shakedown where it's like, well, maybe send in some more money or do this or do that. And in fact, under Trump, the peace president, remember, he's the guy, the peace president, we have seen Russian drone and missile launches increase dramatically. We have a chart on the screen showing you that. So that is not a sign that Vladimir Putin respects Donald Trump or fears Donald Trump in any way. We have everybody right now asking the same question. Is Trump actually strong or is the tough talk only an act? Strength is not about photo ops and loud threats. Strength is about showing that when allies are tested, the United States is going to show up. And history tells us that these moments can be turning points. And I hope we're not heading to World War Three. You know, there are commentators, analysts, pundits, pundits, as many people incorrectly pronounce it, who have been saying for a decade, we're on the brink of World War Three, or for two decades. I'm not saying we're on the brink of World War Three, but the Polish leader has said this is the closest we have been to war since World War II. Now, when you think about Naito, NATO's credibility only works if adversaries believe it will respond as one. If that belief collapses, deterrence collapses. And so this is a test for Donald Trump not only insofar as is he going to be there in terms of American responsibilities in this instance, what would it signal to authoritarians and autocrats around the world more generally about the future if Donald Trump goes, eh, right now, Poland is calling for greater Naito support. Europe is moving quickly. Trump so far is standing still. And if he continues to stand still, it's going to be weakness. Now, this doesn't mean Trump launches a war. That's not what we're talking about right now. It's not even about that. Putin doesn't even think Trump gives a damn about this. The question is, is Trump even going to signal, hey, we are part of this shared defense agreement. We are going to uphold our responsibilities there. So the question of whether Putin respects Trump, that question is gone. The answer is no. The remaining question is, does anyone respect Donald Trump? And we may find out very, very soon. Trump has found a way to make the Epstein scandal even worse. When Trump was asked about this by NBC News yesterday after the drawing, the letter with Trump's signature to Jeffrey Epstein was published by the Wall Street Journal. Trump was asked about this by NBC News. He says it is a dead issue and he refused to talk about it. Democrats on the House Oversight Committee released this alleged birthday letter that Trump sent to Jeffrey Epstein for his 50th birthday in 2003. This is a letter that Donald Trump previously denied existed. It appears to have Donald Trump's name written in the pubic area of a drawing of a woman, naked woman. Some are saying, this is David. This is a naked girl. The text says that we have certain things in common. Jeffrey and ends with a pal is a wonderful thing. Maybe. May every day be another wonderful secret. Now, the White House has said the signature doesn't match Trump's current signature. But we're going to hear from a handwriting expert later in the show. Earlier signatures contemporaneous to this one, including one from a letter written released by attorney George Conway, who's been on this show, show that at the time that is what Donald Trump's signature looked like. Trump's public response after it becomes apparently undeniable that Donald Trump did do the thing he denied doing. Trump's response was to call it a debt issue and to say he's not going to talk about it. Now. When a letter like this comes out, I am not an expert in pr. The last two weeks, I think, prove that we. When a letter like this comes out, it seems to me that it's a bad idea to look away and say nothing after you've already denied its existence. You say it doesn't exist, then it comes out, now you say nothing. If it were fake, you would expect, like, this furious, detailed denial. Trump now has gone silent, and that really suggests he has no defense here. And so the fallout is growing. You've got some of Donald Trump's own MAGA allies we've talked about Marjorie Taylor Greene before, Nancy Mace. They are now joining the call for the Epstein files. This is more than a minor crack in this loyalty wall that Donald Trump has built. The wall is sort of collapsing in real time. Trump is desperate for the story to die. His silence now is going to make it louder. And it's by the way, note to Democrats on this. I saw some of these comments online. If your primary reaction to the Epstein letter is that it's sexist, that the drawing is crude, lewd and sexist, you're blowing it like, of course the letter is crude and disgusting. But the political kill shot is not about whether Trump is sexist. We knew about Trump and misogyny a decade ago and everybody already knows about it. It's not news. Voters didn't care in 2016. They didn't care in 2020. They didn't care in 2024. It is not going to move the needle to go, oh, look at this sexist letter. The smart play is to focus on what Trump's response tells us, that he calls it a dead issue and he's refusing to answer questions. And the denials make it abundantly clear that he's terrified about this. This is the behavior of something, of someone with something to hide. So the sexism is, does not seem to be the right play here. If this were fake, we would be seeing a different reaction. Trump is hoping Silence will make it go away. And Democrats should be hammering on the evasiveness, hammering on no innocent person would behave the way Trump has behaved over the last three months when it comes to this issue. The, the pointing to the sexist angle has already failed Democrats for a decade. And so you've got to approach it a different perspective now. There are a number of other elements to this. One is who from MAGA will stick with Trump versus who will abandon Trump. We're going to deal with that a little bit later in the show. Another aspect to this is can we just get the handwriting part out of the way? Because you've still got people all the way up to J.D. vance, the Vice President himself, Caroline Levitt, saying, it's simply a fake, it is a fraud, it is not Trump's handwriting. We're going to hear from a handwriting expert who says this is just undeniable. So hopefully that part can be put to bed. And then we have the question of is it even possible that Trump will succeed on blocking this vote in the House to release the Epstein files? The latest calculus, the latest sort of whipping of the votes, colloquially speaking, is that this may be a battle Trump cannot win and the vote is going to happen and every Republican is going to be on record. Do you want the Epstein files out or don't you? So much of that later today, some of it tomorrow, we will get to what we can't get to today. I will also be joined later by Dan Pfeiffer from Pod Save America. Looking forward to that. A lot of people think identity theft is something that only happens when someone hacks into your account. But the truth is that it usually starts with your personal information being posted online by data brokers where anybody can find it. Our sponsor, Incogni, is a service that helps protect your privacy by forcing the data brokers to delete your information. This includes your name, address, phone number, even sensitive things like property records or your political affiliation. And now, with their custom removals feature included in the unlimited plan, you're not limited to just the list of 250 plus brokers they work with. By default, if you find any site exposing any of your private information, even one they've never seen before, you can send a link and Incogni's team will work to get that removed. This is serious protection for you and your family against identity theft, against fraud, doxxing, harassment. And Incogni's data removal process is the only one independently verified by Deloitte. Get 60% off an annual plan when you visit incogni.com/pacman and use the code pacman. The link is in the description. I've been tracking my family tree for a long time now, and the service I've always relied on is MyHeritage, which I started using long before they became a sponsor trusted by over 90 million users. MyHeritage makes it easy and fun to build your family tree with a range of powerful genealogy tools at your fingertips. One of my favorite features lets you quickly find new family members and add entire new branches to your tree. It's always a good time to sit down with my family, show them what I found. For example, the other day I found a scan of an immigration document from when my mother's uncle's aunt arrived at Ellis island or this document from the US Canada border for my relative who was born in 1895. This is remarkable stuff and really interesting artifacts that are part of the puzzle of my family's past. MyHeritage gives you access to over 19 billion records like this, making it easier than ever for you to uncover amazing new pieces of your family's history. You can try My Heritage completely free for 14 days when you go to David pakman.com/myheritage. The link is in the description. The David Pakman show is proudly primarily funded by our audience. We don't get cable carriage fees like Fox News. We don't get any of that stuff. We've got ad revenue and of course we have memberships. You can sign up for a membership@join pacman.com if you want the extra audio visual content. You can get a substack pretty Premium membership@substack.david pakman.com if you prefer additional written content. We also DO Q&As on Substack where paid subscribers can submit questions which I will answer or be a Gold member. This is much better than Trump's $5 million gold card for foreign rich people to get citizenship. You can become a member on both the website and on Substack. We call it Gold Membership because I'm very uncreative and have come up with no, no better name for it. But if someone has a better name idea for that, please let me know. Join pacman.com substack. David pakman.com is Donald Trump's worst lie ever. The claim he made yesterday out and about in Washington D.C. that the Epstein letter that has now been released is neither his signature nor nor his drawing nor his writing. Let's listen to what Donald Trump said. The only statement he has Made. He has since gone mum and told NBC News it's a debt issue. I'm not going to talk about it. Here is Trump. Listen to the number of different claims he makes about the letter.
